2000 Post-Season Review -- Anaheim Angels
By Tom Tippett
January 10, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Anaheim Angels performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms
and statistics, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 784 864
Runs allowed 842 869
Run Margin -54 -5
Wins 75 82
Pythagorean wins 75 81
Placement 4th 3rd
Two years ago, when the Angels signed Mo Vaughn, a lot of people picked
Anaheim to win the division. But our computer simulations exposed some
weaknesses and suggested that a third-place finish was more likely. They
were even worse than that, as injuries, clubhouse turmoil, and some disappointing
performances (especially from Darin Erstad) dropped them to 70 wins and
the AL West cellar.
Coming off that dismal campaign, only a few brave souls thought Anaheim
would escape a second-straight last-place finish in 2000. That's where
they landed in our simulations, too, but it was a very respectable last-place
finish. The projected run margin was only -54, meaning that a few pleasant
surprises and a few breaks would be enough to put them into the mix in
a division with no dominant teams. In fact, Anaheim won the division in
two of the fifty simulations we ran of the 2000 season.
Things did indeed go well for this squad. The offense was much more potent
than expected, and that was enough to overcome a slightly disappointing
pitching staff and give them a winning record in each of the first four
months. Seven games over .500 going into August, they still had a good
shot at the division title or a wildcard berth. But some of their bats
fell silent during the stretch run and the Angels faded to a 25-30 record
the rest of the way.
Key Position Players
Led by Darin Erstad, Troy Glaus, and Tim Salmon, Anaheim scored 80 more
runs than projected despite getting very little offense from the shortstop
position and lacking a strong presence at DH. Injuries didn't hurt them
-- Gary Disarcina was the only major casualty, and he wasn't going to
hit much anyway -- and none of the regulars had a bad year. So I think
it's fair to say that they couldn't reasonably expect to squeeze many
more runs out of this lineup than they did. Their total of 864 runs was
enough to rank them 7th in the league in runs scored after finishing second-last
the year before.
Ben Molina, c, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 90 22 4 0 1 8 12 1 5 0 6 0 0 .244 .289 .322 .611 8
Prorated Ana 476 116 21 0 5 42 63 5 26 0 32 0 0 .244 .289 .322 .611 42
Actual Ana 473 133 20 2 14 59 71 6 23 0 33 1 0 .281 .318 .421 .739 60
Entering spring training, it wasn't yet clear whether Molina was ready
to be a good major-league hitter -- he had some terrific AA numbers but
hadn't impressed at higher levels -- and he seemed destined to share the
job with Matt Walbeck as he had done the year before. But he began the
season as the starter, held the job through a shaky April, then caught
fire with a .463 batting average in May and five homers in each of June
and July. He doesn't walk much, but he's shown that he can hit for a decent
average with moderate power, and he's one of the league's tougher hitters
to strike out.
Matt Walbeck, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 457 116 16 2 7 48 46 3 43 1 78 3 3 .254 .320 .344 .663 49
Prorated Ana 139 35 5 1 2 15 14 1 13 0 24 1 1 .254 .320 .344 .663 15
Actual Ana 146 29 5 0 6 17 12 1 7 0 22 0 1 .199 .240 .356 .596 12
Walbeck didn't hit as the starter in 1999 (.240 with virtually no power)
and was even worse as the backup last year. He's a career .237 hitter
with who's never had a slugging average above .367, and his defense is
nothing special. If he's able to stay in the majors, it will be as a backup.
Cincinnati signed him to a minor-league contract in December.
Mo Vaughn, 1b/dh, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 582 168 23 1 29 81 102 11 69 10 138 0 0 .289 .373 .481 .854 106
Prorated Ana 623 180 25 1 31 87 109 12 74 11 148 0 0 .289 .373 .481 .854 113
Actual Ana 614 167 31 0 36 93 117 14 79 11 181 2 0 .272 .365 .498 .864 115
A year ago, I pointed out that Anaheim fans were in for a disappointment
if they expected Vaughn to produce as well as he had with the Red Sox
not so long ago. Two forces -- age and a much less favorable ballpark
-- would be working against him. I figured I'd have to eat my words when
Vaughn was sitting with a .318 batting average, 18 homers and 47 RBI at
the end of May. But that was the high-water mark, and a terrible September
brought his full season totals all the way down to the level he had been
projected for. Vaughn has always been prone to strike out, but this was
the first time that he challenged the all-time record (Bobby Bonds, 189)
for Ks in a season.
Adam Kennedy, 2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 421 113 25 4 7 57 56 4 22 0 43 12 7 .268 .308 .397 .705 51
Prorated Ana 594 160 35 6 10 80 79 6 31 0 61 17 10 .268 .308 .397 .705 72
Actual Ana 598 159 33 11 9 82 72 3 28 5 73 22 8 .266 .300 .403 .703 71
Kennedy was acquired before the season in one of those "needs"
trades that seems likely to work out well for both teams. Anaheim had
a surplus of outfielders and by trading one of them (Jim Edmonds) hoped
to fill two holes by acquiring a starting pitcher (Bottenfield) and plugging
Kennedy into the void created by Randy Velarde's departure the year before.
Like many of his teammates, Kennedy started quickly, batting .380 with
14 extra-base hits and 7 steals in April. A lousy May brought him back
to earth, but he got back on track and finished up with a season right
in line with expectations. He didn't come close to filling Randy Velarde's
shoes, but it was a very respectable rookie season. And he is, after all,
thirteen years younger than Velarde.
Troy Glaus, 3b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 575 141 29 0 31 88 89 5 68 1 142 5 1 .245 .329 .457 .786 89
Prorated Ana 599 147 30 0 32 92 93 5 71 1 148 5 1 .245 .329 .457 .786 93
Actual Ana 563 160 37 1 47 120 102 2 112 6 163 14 11 .284 .404 .604 1.008 138
I think it's fair to say that Glaus has made the adjustment to big-league
pitching. A college star, Glaus was promoted after only 109 games in the
minors, where 35 homers in 407 atbats provided ample evidence that he
had nothing more to prove. He showed flashes of greatness in 1999 when
he started very quickly and banged out 29 homers in his first full season,
but his batting average was depressed by a ton of strikeouts. Last year,
he continued to whiff a lot, but great things happened when he didn't.
It added up to 112 walks, the AL homerun title, and a .400 average when
he put the ball in play. In the field, Glaus showed very good range but
made 33 errors. If he can steady himself down a little, he could be an
asset on defense, too.
Gary DiSarcina, ss, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 527 136 26 3 4 63 54 6 27 0 50 7 6 .258 .300 .342 .642 52
Prorated Ana 39 10 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 4 1 0 .258 .300 .342 .642 4
Actual Ana 38 15 2 0 1 6 11 1 1 0 3 0 1 .395 .425 .526 .951 8
In 1995, Disarcina earned a reputation as a key member of this team when
he batted .307, played very good defense, and helped the team into the
division lead. The fact that the club collapsed when Disarcina went down
with an injury only served to reinforce that view. But Disarcina was able
to get his on-base percentage over .300 only once from 1996 to 1999, and
that's just not good enough these days.
To make matters worse, he missed the first half of 1999 with a broken
arm, then saw his 2000 season wiped out by a pair of injuries -- a badly
bruised thumb in April and rotator-cuff surgery in May. His shoulder is
not expected to be ready until mid-April, so while it's too soon to say
that his career is over, there's no guarantee that Disarcina will become
a useful player again.
Benji Gil, ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 67 14 3 0 1 9 8 1 5 0 15 1 1 .209 .270 .299 .569 6
Prorated Ana 306 64 14 0 5 41 37 5 23 0 69 5 5 .209 .270 .299 .569 25
Actual Ana 301 72 14 1 6 28 23 5 30 0 59 10 6 .239 .317 .352 .669 34
In 1995, Gil was the regular shortstop for Texas at the tender age of
22. Although he showed great range in the field, he made too many errors
and did absolutely nothing at the plate. Kevin Elster took his job in
1996, and Gil got another shot in 1997 when Elster broke his wrist. Once
again, Gil didn't hit, and he found himself in the minors in 1998-99.
He got a chance last year when Disarcina went down, but the story hasn't
changed. He still has good range, but he still doesn't hit enough, and
he still makes too many errors.
Kevin Stocker, ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 474 124 19 3 7 63 47 7 48 2 90 10 6 .262 .338 .359 .696 58
Prorated Tam 121 32 5 1 2 16 12 2 12 1 23 3 2 .262 .338 .359 .696 15
Actual Tam 114 30 7 1 2 20 8 2 19 0 27 1 2 .263 .378 .395 .773 17
Prorated Ana 240 63 10 2 4 32 24 4 24 1 46 5 3 .262 .338 .359 .696 30
Actual Ana 229 45 13 3 0 21 16 2 32 0 54 0 3 .197 .299 .279 .579 19
Prorated Tot 361 94 14 2 5 48 36 5 37 2 69 8 5 .262 .338 .359 .696 44
Actual Tot 343 75 20 4 2 41 24 4 51 0 81 1 5 .219 .326 .318 .644 36
Even though Stocker produced at his normal level, Tampa Bay released
him after he made 11 errors in 38 starts. After Anaheim picked him up,
Stocker was pretty steady in the field but didn't hit at all. He became
a free agent after the season.
Darin Erstad, lf/cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 643 176 32 4 16 96 76 4 59 5 102 19 8 .274 .337 .411 .747 90
Prorated Ana 675 185 34 4 17 101 80 4 62 5 107 20 8 .274 .337 .411 .747 94
Actual Ana 676 240 39 6 25 121 100 1 64 9 82 28 8 .355 .409 .541 .951 154
A tale of two seasons. By the end of the 1998 season, Erstad had established
himself as a rising star with a combination of excellent defense, above-average
hitting, and the ability to steal 20 bases with a good success rate. Then
he had a 1999 season that was one of the worst in the majors before turning
things completely around with an outstanding 2000 campaign.
His combined performance in those two seasons -- .308, 18 homers per
600 atbats, 53 walks, 20 steals -- is right in line with what you would
project for someone his age with his stats through 1998. So how should
we interpret his 2000 season? As a breakout season that will establish
him for years to come as a bona fide superstar? Or as proof that players
can have season-long slumps and season-long streaks that average out in
the long run?
Partly because he did most of his damage in the first half, I'm leaning
toward the view that Erstad will drop back into the low .300s with moderate
power and a normal walk rate. In other words, I think he'll be a very
good (but not great) hitter, a terrific defensive player, and an asset
to any team. But not a superstar.
Ron Gant, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 525 135 27 3 24 98 83 2 74 1 117 11 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 90
Prorated Phi 334 86 17 2 15 62 53 1 47 1 75 7 1 .257 .350 .457 .807 57
Actual Phi 343 87 16 2 20 54 38 1 36 1 73 5 4 .254 .324 .487 .811 53
Prorated Ana 90 23 5 1 4 17 14 0 13 0 20 2 0 .257 .350 .457 .807 15
Actual Ana 82 19 3 1 6 15 16 0 20 0 18 1 2 .232 .379 .512 .891 17
Prorated Tot 424 109 22 2 19 79 67 2 60 1 94 9 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 72
Actual Tot 425 106 19 3 26 69 54 1 56 1 91 6 6 .249 .335 .492 .827 71
Although Gant was having a decent season, it made sense for the slumping
Phillies to dump his salary and open a position for Pat Burrell by dealing
him to Anaheim for Kent Bottenfield at the trade deadline. Anaheim didn't
get much out of Gant, but Bottenfield hadn't been pitching well, so they
didn't give up all that much, either. After the season, Gant became a
free agent and signed with Colorado.
Edgard Clemente, of/dh, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 256 57 11 1 10 30 34 1 17 0 62 2 2 .223 .273 .391 .663 26
Prorated Ana 74 17 3 0 3 9 10 0 5 0 18 1 1 .223 .273 .391 .663 8
Actual Ana 78 17 2 0 0 4 5 1 0 0 27 0 1 .218 .228 .244 .471 4
Clemente did nothing to remind fans of his late, great uncle Roberto
last year. He didn't hit at AAA Edmonton or with the Angels, and he became
a free agent after the season.
Orlando Palmeiro, of, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 81 23 3 1 0 11 8 1 10 0 7 1 1 .284 .366 .346 .711 11
Prorated Ana 252 72 9 3 0 34 25 3 31 0 22 3 3 .284 .366 .346 .711 35
Actual Ana 243 73 20 2 0 38 25 2 38 0 20 4 1 .300 .395 .399 .794 42
Palmeiro picked up his game a little in 2000, matching or setting career
highs in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He hits for a good
average, walks more often than he strikes out, and can handle himself
defensively. But with only one homer in 966 career atbats, he'll never
be more than a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Garret Anderson, cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 590 173 33 3 13 71 73 1 35 6 74 4 3 .293 .332 .425 .757 80
Prorated Ana 637 187 36 3 14 77 79 1 38 6 80 4 3 .293 .332 .425 .757 87
Actual Ana 647 185 40 3 35 92 117 0 24 5 87 7 6 .286 .307 .519 .827 93
It's not clear to me why our system projected him for only 13 homers
after he hit 21 in 1999, but even so, there was absolutely nothing in
Anderson's major-league or minor-league career that suggested that he
would ever hit 35 homers. Before the break, he seemed to be swinging for
the fences all the time -- he smacked 26 homers but his average plummeted
to .246. After the break, he hit .334 but had only 9 more homers. And
he didn't take walks at any time during the year. The net result was a
season in which he created only a few more runs than expected. I would
be surprised to see him reach 30 homers again next year.
Tim Salmon, rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 542 150 32 2 26 90 102 3 93 4 115 2 3 .277 .380 .487 .867 107
Prorated Ana 569 157 34 2 27 94 107 3 98 4 121 2 3 .277 .380 .487 .867 112
Actual Ana 568 165 36 2 34 108 97 6 104 5 139 0 2 .290 .404 .540 .945 128
Salmon has proven to be a very tough player in recent years. He played
with a partially torn ligament in his foot (and a lot of pain) for most
of 1998. He sprained his wrist attempting a diving catch in 1999. And
last year Salmon battled a sore back, inflamed shoulder, a tight groin,
a bruised thumb and tendinitis in his foot. Despite all that, Salmon matched
or exceeded his career averages across the board and was a big reason
why the Angels were in contention for much of the season. He had surgery
on both his right foot and his left shoulder after the season, and if
those procedures turn out to be completely successful, we'll have a chance
to find out what he can do when he's healthy.
Jeff DaVanon, dh, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 453 119 22 10 9 87 54 3 56 2 87 20 11 .263 .345 .415 .760 67
A series of impressive minor league seasons led us to pencil DaVanon
in as part of a DH platoon for 2000, but he tore the labrum in his left
shoulder diving for a ball during a spring training game and wound up
missing the entire season.
Scott Spiezio, dh/1b/3b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ana 259 67 15 1 8 36 37 2 31 2 37 0 1 .259 .340 .417 .757 37
Prorated Ana 302 78 17 1 9 42 43 2 36 2 43 0 1 .259 .340 .417 .757 43
Actual Ana 297 72 11 2 17 47 49 3 40 2 56 1 2 .242 .334 .465 .799 48
In March, we figured Spiezio might platoon at second with Kennedy, but
he wound up filling in at first and third when he wasn't the DH. Although
he turned a few more doubles into homeruns than he has in the past, his
overall output was only a little above his career norms. Spiezio seems
destined for a utility role; he doesn't hit well enough to be a regular
at any position other than second, where Kennedy has the nod due to very
good defense and acceptable hitting.
Key Pitchers
Last spring, in the wake of Chuck Finley's departure for Cleveland, it
wasn't easy to cobble together a projected starting rotation from among
this collection of injury-riddled veterans and inexperienced prospects.
And that proved to be somewhat prophetic.
Sixteen (!) different pitchers started games for the Halos last year,
and the final rotation bore little resemblance to the group that left
spring training. A strong bullpen (second in the league in relief ERA)
did its best to bail out all those starting pitchers, who were only 0.04
runs better than the Twins, who had the league's worst starting pitcher
ERA. The result was a staff that ranked ninth in the AL in runs allowed.
Kent Bottenfield, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.54 32 32 12 12 0 204 209 22 89 146 .266 .763
Prorated Ana 4.54 20 20 8 8 0 130 133 14 57 93 .266 .763
Actual Ana 5.71 21 21 7 8 0 128 144 25 56 75 .285 .850
Prorated Phi 4.54 7 7 3 3 0 44 45 5 19 32 .266 .763
Actual Phi 4.50 8 8 1 2 0 44 41 5 21 31 .240 .711
Prorated Tot 4.54 27 27 10 10 0 174 178 19 76 125 .266 .763
Actual Tot 5.40 29 29 8 10 0 172 185 30 77 106 .274 .815
After he went 18-7 for the Cardinals in 1999, it was no surprise when
Bottenfield was penciled in as the ace of the Angels staff when he arrived
in the Jim Edmonds trade. But that win-loss record was misleading in two
ways. First, one doesn't normally win 18 games with an ERA (3.97) that
was only half a run per game below the league average; it was unlikely
that he'd get six runs per game of run support again in 2000. Second,
he didn't pitch all that well anyway -- more than a hit per inning, 4.2
walks per game, and 21 homers allowed.
Taking this into account along with his move to a DH league, Bottenfield
was projected for a modest 12-12 record and an ERA in the mid-4's. He
was more or less on track to match that projection when he tried to pitch
through a sore shoulder and saw his ERA balloon to 7.48 in June (7 homers
allowed in 21 innings). He was traded back to the NL (Philly) for Ron
Gant at the trade deadline, then declared free agency after the season
and signed with Houston for 2001.
Ken Hill, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.96 32 32 8 14 0 185 200 18 99 107 .279 .792
Prorated Ana 4.96 15 15 4 6 0 84 91 8 45 49 .279 .792
Actual Ana 6.52 16 16 5 7 0 79 102 16 53 50 .323 .928
Prorated ChA 4.96 1 1 0 0 0 4 5 0 2 2 .279 .792
Actual ChA 24.00 2 1 0 1 0 3 5 0 6 0 .455 1.429
Prorated Tot 4.96 15 15 4 7 0 89 96 9 47 51 .279 .792
Actual Tot 7.16 18 17 5 8 0 82 107 16 59 50 .327 .947
One of the game's better starting pitchers in the first half of the nineties,
Hill has battled injuries (shoulder, elbow) and hasn't been the same pitcher
for the past four years. (I wonder if the 250 innings he threw in 1996
had anything to do with his subsequent struggles.) Nothing much went right
last year, either, as his control vanished, he gave up a ton of homers,
spent seven weeks on the DL (torn rib cage muscle), and was released in
early August. He's a free agent now.
Jason Dickson, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.25 32 32 8 14 0 189 220 25 62 99 .293 .808
Prorated Ana 5.25 5 5 1 2 0 28 33 4 9 15 .293 .808
Actual Ana 6.11 6 6 2 2 0 28 39 5 7 18 .336 .896
In 1997, Dickson was a very impressive 13-9 in his first full season,
logging 203 innings despite occasional elbow and shoulder problems. He
didn't pitch well the next year, then missed all of 1999 after shoulder
surgery. He began last year in the rotation, but that didn't last long.
He went on the DL with a strained hip flexor and discovered more damage
to his shoulder while trying to make it back from the hip injury. Dickson's
shoulder was operated on again, and that was that for the season and for
his Anaheim career. Toronto recently signed this Canadian hurler to a
minor-league deal for 2001.
Jarrod Washburn, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.01 26 26 7 11 0 153 162 22 66 105 .272 .801
Prorated Ana 5.01 13 13 4 6 0 77 81 11 33 53 .272 .801
Actual Ana 3.74 14 14 7 2 0 84 64 16 37 49 .215 .717
Washburn didn't join the rotation until May because of a sprained rib
cage muscle, but he pitched very well for the most part. He left his May
29th start with a tight shoulder after throwing five no-hit innings, then
got shelled six days later. After that, Washburn settled down and pitched
very well until his season was ended in early August by a stress fracture
in his left shoulder. I'm very impressed with the .215 average he held
opposing hitters to, but his walk/strikeout ratio and tendency to give
up the longball make me think he's still got some work to do to become
a solid major-league starter.
Tim Belcher, starter, age 38
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.28 22 22 6 9 0 130 147 20 46 66 .287 .821
Prorated Ana 5.28 7 7 2 3 0 42 48 7 15 21 .287 .821
Actual Ana 6.86 9 9 4 5 0 41 45 8 22 22 .281 .892
After a very disappointing 1999 season, the Angels were hoping that Belcher
would come back strong in 2000 after undergoing elbow surgery in December.
The club knew he'd miss the first month of the season, but it turned out
that he wasn't ready until mid-June. Two good starts were followed by
two horrible ones and a return to the DL when his elbow flared up again
in early July. He made it back into the rotation in September, when he
pitched well against three of the weaker hitting teams in the league and
got hammered by two of the better ones. His last good season was 1996.
Scott Schoeneweis, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 6.28 5 5 1 2 0 29 37 5 11 18 .319 .897
Prorated Ana 6.28 29 29 6 11 0 164 211 29 63 103 .319 .897
Actual Ana 5.45 27 27 7 10 0 170 183 21 67 78 .276 .783
Schoeneweis was a starter in the minors but spent his first major-league
season (1999) in the pen. He started well (4-0, 3.15 in April) but faded
quickly and wound up around the league average for AL starting pitchers.
He pitched a little better than his ERA indicated.
It's hard to say how good he can be in the future; his walk-strikeout
ratios were better than 2:1 in the minors but barely 1:1 so far in the
big leagues. Didn't allow a stolen base in 39 innings in his rookie season,
but was pretty easy to run on (20 for 25) last year.
Ramon Ortiz, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.14 6 6 2 3 0 35 37 6 17 32 .272 .818
Prorated Ana 5.14 18 18 6 9 0 106 112 18 51 97 .272 .818
Actual Ana 5.09 18 18 8 6 0 111 96 18 55 73 .236 .747
One of the more promising pitchers in the Angels system, Ortiz began
the season on the DL with a slight tear in the labrum of his throwing
shoulder but missed only about a week of action. He struggled with his
control early and was sent down to AAA after six starts. He was back for
good in mid-August and pitched pretty well, though his ERA ballooned as
a result of two outings in which he allowed 17 earned runs in 6-1/3 innings.
His minor league record shows good control, plenty of strikeouts, and
less than a hit per inning, so there's a lot of upside here. And you'd
have to believe he'd be further along in his development had he not missed
most of the 1998 season with a fractured elbow.
Brian Cooper, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 6.35 3 3 1 1 0 17 21 3 7 13 .309 .906
Prorated Ana 6.35 15 15 5 5 0 86 107 15 36 66 .309 .906
Actual Ana 5.90 15 15 4 8 0 87 105 18 35 36 .300 .895
Cooper spent two years in A ball and was a little better the second year.
He was terrible in his first year in AA (1998) and improved in his second
season at that level (his stats were dramatically better but aided by
a change from a hitter-friendly to pitcher-friendly league, so the real
improvement was less substantial than it appears).
In 16 starts in AAA beginning late in 1999, his ERA is over six, and
he has yet to have any success in the majors. Can he repeat his pattern
of improving after a one-year adjustment period? Maybe, maybe not. The
good news is that his walk-strikeout ratios have been excellent throughout
his minor-league career -- generally less than three walks and more than
eight strikeouts per nine innings. The bad news is that his strikeout
rate has fallen sharply since he reached AAA, so he may not have enough
to get the better hitters out.
Seth Etherton, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.50 3 3 1 1 0 18 20 3 6 14 .286 .809
Prorated Ana 5.50 10 10 3 3 0 62 69 10 21 48 .286 .809
Actual Ana 5.52 11 11 5 1 0 60 68 16 22 32 .278 .885
The Angels top draft pick in 1998, Etherton has moved quickly through
the system. Like the other young pitchers in this organization, his minor
league record contains some encouraging (though not dominant) performances.
Given that he found himself in the majors after only 13 AAA starts, it
shouldn't come as a surprise that he struggled a little. He'll get more
chances, but he may be a couple of years away from being a good big-league
starter.
Scott Karl, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.73 19 19 5 8 0 107 146 16 40 58 .329 .896
Prorated Col 6.73 12 12 3 5 0 69 94 10 26 37 .329 .896
Actual Col 7.68 17 9 2 3 0 66 95 14 33 29 .343 .985
Prorated Ana 6.73 4 4 1 2 0 23 31 3 9 12 .329 .896
Actual Ana 6.65 6 4 2 2 0 22 31 2 12 9 .337 .903
Prorated Tot 6.73 16 16 4 7 0 92 125 14 34 50 .329 .896
Actual Tot 7.42 23 13 4 5 0 87 126 16 45 38 .341 .964
Karl has always given up a lot more hits than innings pitched, so you
had to feel for him when he was dealt to the Rockies before the 2000 season.
As expected, he was knocked around there and was let go in August. Anaheim
gave him a shot, but he wasn't any better, and he'll try his hand in San
Diego next year.
Matt Wise, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 6.88 3 3 1 2 0 17 22 3 6 11 .319 .913
Prorated Ana 6.88 6 6 2 4 0 36 46 6 13 23 .319 .913
Actual Ana 5.54 8 6 3 3 0 37 40 7 13 20 .272 .780
Yet another young pitcher who got his first shot at the majors in 2000.
Wise's 1999 season was ended by elbow surgery, but he bounced back and
earned his shot by pitching well at AAA Edmonton last year. He acquitted
himself well in six starts before being shut down in early September with
more pain in that elbow. He'll get more chances as long as his elbow is
OK.
Kent Mercker, reliever/starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.34 70 0 4 7 1 94 108 11 39 49 .290 .808
Prorated Ana 5.34 38 0 2 4 1 51 58 6 21 26 .290 .808
Actual Ana 6.52 21 7 1 3 0 48 57 12 29 30 .300 .949
Too many walks, too many homers, and a complete inability to get right-handed
batters out. A lefty like Mercker isn't going to last long pitching that
way. But that's not the real story here.
Mercker suffered a cerebral hemorrhage while pitching on May 11th and
was in danger of losing his life. Remarkably, he returned to action three
months later. He didn't pitch all that well, but who cares? He was alive
and kicking and practicing his craft once again.
He signed with the Red Sox last week, who may be thinking of him as a
lefty reliever now that Rheal Cormier and Jeff Fassero have moved on to
other teams. Mercker did have some success getting lefties out last year.
Al Levine, reliever/starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 74 76 10 27 34 .267 .767
Prorated Ana 4.60 71 0 4 5 0 100 102 13 36 46 .267 .767
Actual Ana 3.87 51 5 3 4 2 95 98 10 49 42 .266 .767
A late bloomer, Levine didn't make his big-league debut until he was
28, and didn't pitch all that well in his first two seasons. He began
to turn the corner with Texas in 1998 and has now posted two solid seasons
for Anaheim, chewing up a lot of effective innings in long relief.
Mark Petkovsek, reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.67 40 0 2 3 0 54 65 6 18 28 .302 .817
Prorated Ana 4.67 57 0 3 4 0 77 92 9 26 40 .302 .817
Actual Ana 4.22 64 1 4 2 2 81 86 8 23 31 .277 .752
Along with Levine, Petkovsek has given the Angels some badly-needed innings
in long relief for the past two seasons. He pitched more effectively in
the first half than in the second (OPSs of .691 and .805), but his half-season
ERAs were just the opposite (5.18 and 3.29), serving as a reminder that
it's best not to focus too much on ERA when you're trying to evaluate
relief pitchers. After the season, Petkovsek became a free agent and signed
with Texas.
Mike Fyhrie, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.98 23 0 2 3 0 47 49 6 21 31 .269 .773
Prorated Ana 4.98 24 0 2 3 0 50 52 6 22 33 .269 .773
Actual Ana 2.39 32 0 0 0 0 53 54 4 15 43 .269 .698
There's no question that Fyhrie improved his game last year, but don't
get too carried away by that 2.39 ERA. His underlying stats are more consistent
with an ERA in the mid-threes. Nevertheless, he was a valuable member
of the bullpen. Oddly, this right-hander was much better against lefties
(.222 average with no homers in 81 atbats).
Shigetoshi Hasegawa, setup/closer, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.52 70 0 4 6 2 98 96 14 37 64 .257 .752
Prorated Ana 4.52 69 0 4 6 2 97 95 14 37 63 .257 .752
Actual Ana 3.57 66 0 10 6 9 96 100 11 38 59 .270 .750
Because relievers don't throw a lot of innings, their seasonal ERAs can
be quite volatile, and Hasegawa is a good example. His four seasons with
Anaheim have produced ERAs of 3.93, 3.14, 4.91 and 3.57 while his underlying
stats have been more stable than that. As you can see in the table, Hasegawa
allowed a few more hits and three fewer homers than projected, but his
ERA was almost a run lower than expected. That's usually a sign that a
pitcher had some luck on his side.
Mike Holtz, lefty specialist, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.36 53 0 2 3 0 54 55 6 27 52 .267 .772
Prorated Ana 4.36 39 0 1 2 0 40 41 4 20 38 .267 .772
Actual Ana 5.05 61 0 3 3 0 41 37 4 18 40 .248 .680
Holtz's season is a mirror image of Hasegawa's in that he pitched a little
better than expected but saw his ERA come in three-quarters of a run above
the projected level. Despite the five-plus ERA, Holtz did his job well,
holding lefties to a .213 average. His stats would normally produce an
ERA in the 3.80 range.
Lou Pote, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.90 30 0 1 4 0 50 61 8 21 34 .303 .868
Prorated Ana 5.90 29 0 1 4 0 48 58 8 20 32 .303 .868
Actual Ana 3.40 32 1 1 1 1 50 52 4 17 44 .267 .703
Pote's projected stats were quite poor because he gave up a lot of hits
as a starter in AA and AAA in the two seasons leading up to his big-league
debut as a reliever in 1999, and because his strong performance as a reliever
involved only 29 innings. But Pote pitched quite well in relief again
this year, both at AAA and with the Angels, and it may be that he's much
better suited to that role.
Derrick Turnbow, mopup man, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 5.70 23 0 2 2 0 30 36 5 15 24 .300 .880
Prorated Ana 5.70 30 0 3 3 0 39 47 7 20 31 .300 .880
Actual Ana 4.74 24 1 0 0 0 38 36 7 36 25 .254 .860
If you're ever in the market for a mopup man, this is the guy. In 19
of his 23 relief appearances, he entered the game with his team down by
four runs or more. He was entrusted with four leads, but three of them
were leads of nine or more runs. Only once was he brought into a close
game -- a two-run lead against the White Sox on September 3rd when the
rest of the bullpen had been used up by a series of blowouts -- and he
responded by allowing a solo homer in one inning and picking up a Hold.
His reward for this performance? Five more days on the bench before being
asked to protect a seven-run deficit.
Turnbow was a Rule 5 pick last December, so the Angels had to keep him
on the roster or risk losing him. He was in A ball the year before, so
it made perfect sense to use him in non-pressure situations. Now that
he has served his mandatory season on the big-league roster, they can
send him down for more seasoning.
It's amazing that he was able to make it through the year with a 4.74
ERA after walking a man an inning, putting 72 runners on base in 38 innings,
and giving up a homer every five innings.
Troy Percival, closer, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 2.62 70 0 5 5 38 76 53 8 35 83 .196 .638
Prorated Ana 2.62 49 0 4 4 27 53 37 6 25 58 .196 .638
Actual Ana 4.50 54 0 5 5 32 50 42 7 30 49 .228 .731
Long established as one of the best closers in the league, we began to
see some warning signs in Percival's game in the latter stages of 1999.
He's still an effective pitcher, but the trend is definitely in the wrong
direction -- more walks, higher batting average allowed -- and he blew
ten saves in 42 chances. He spent three weeks in August on the DL with
a sore elbow, and the time off may have been just what the doctor ordered.
After his return, he posted an ERA of 3.27 with seven saves in eight chances.
Outlook
The team began handing the reins to a crop of young pitchers who will
be expected to carry the load as early as this year. The only free agent
pitchers they've added are Pat Rapp and Ismael Valdes, two pitchers who
can be expected to add depth to the staff but who weren't any better than
the Angels kids last year. I think it would be asking too much for this
group to make a big step forward next year, but with the experience gained
by the youngsters in 2000 and the possibility that Valdes could bounce
back, a small step forward is quite possible.
Offensively, their production bounced back to the level it was at before
their 1999 collapse. I figure the offense needs to add another 75 runs
or so if this team is going to contend for a division title in 2001. Can
they do that? On the positive side, they scored only 7 more runs than
the league average despite finishing with the league's 5th best batting
average, 6th best on-base percentage, and the top slugging average. The
same level of production could easily produce more runs next year. On
the other hand, they were only in the middle of the pack in scoring despite
very good health, a couple of career years, and no bad seasons from any
of the regulars. They may not be so lucky next year.
In short, the Angels look like a team that could easily be in the thick
of the wildcard race but is probably an ace pitcher and a year away from
a serious run at the division title.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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