2000 Post-Season Review -- Arizona Diamondbacks
By Zack Scott
Edited by Tom Tippett
January 12, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Arizona Diamondbacks performed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, a definition of some of the key terms
and statistics, and a publication schedule, please see the overview page
called 2000 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 915 792
Runs allowed 789 754
Run Margin 126 38
Wins 92 85
Pythagorean wins 93 85
Placement 1st 3rd
Everything went right for the Diamondbacks in 1999. They got a career
year from Jay Bell, a healthy and productive season from Matt Williams,
breakthrough performances by Omar Daal and Erubiel Durazo, and a Cy Young
performance from Randy Johnson. The result was the league's best offense,
second best pitching staff, 100 wins and their first NL West title.
Although Arizona was returning essentially the same cast of characters,
it wasn't reasonable to expect the same outstanding performances from
everyone two years in a row, so their projected win total was 8 less than
the previous year. But those 92 wins still looked to be good enough to
win a second straight title in a division where none of the other teams
figured to be much better than .500.
It was interesting to see manager Buck Showalter make some significant
changes to the lineup after leading the league in scoring the year before.
Perhaps he understood that 1999 was unusual in the number of career years
he got from his players and that they would be hard pressed to match those
results. Trying to fill a gaping hole at shortstop and find a way to get
both Travis Lee and Durazo into the lineup more often, he moved Tony Womack
from right field to shortstop and Lee from first to right, opening up
the first base job for Durazo.
In the end, these moves failed and offensive production declined more
drastically than expected. Even though the pitching was a little better
than expected, thanks in part to another big year from Randy Johnson,
the decline in scoring dropped the team to third place, and Showalter
was fired after the season.
Key Position Players
Despite outstanding efforts by Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley, Arizona's
offense dropped from the top scoring team in the NL one year ago to 10th
in 2000. The main causes of the slide were injuries to Matt Williams and
Erubiel Durazo, a return to mediocrity by Jay Bell after a monster 1999,
Tony Womack's inability to get on base and use his speed, and the black
hole that was right field (where 12 different players were used).
Damian Miller, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 294 84 19 1 9 36 45 3 23 2 71 0 1 .286 .341 .449 .790 45
Prorated Ari 330 94 21 1 10 40 51 3 26 2 80 0 1 .286 .341 .449 .790 50
Actual Ari 324 89 24 0 10 43 44 1 36 4 74 2 2 .275 .347 .441 .788 50
As a second round expansion draft pick of Arizona in 1998, Miller joined
Kelly Stinnett to form an unusual platoon of two right-handed hitting
catchers. Until now, the duo has essentially split equal time. This year,
for the first time, Miller caught significantly more games than Stinnett.
The role change can be attributed to Miller's three years of consistent
(albeit average) offensive production, a superior arm (40% caught stealing),
and a first half power surge (15 doubles, 8 homeruns, .521 slugging).
His power disappeared after the break (2 homeruns, .358 slugging), but
Stinnett was worse (.195 slugging), and Miller will enter the 2001 season
in an unfamiliar situation -- number one catcher. The D-Backs decided
they can only afford to keep one member of the platoon, so Stinnett was
not tendered a contract and has since signed with Cincinnati.
Kelly Stinnett, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 261 66 13 0 12 36 36 5 30 2 71 0 1 .253 .340 .441 .781 40
Prorated Ari 232 59 12 0 11 32 32 4 27 2 63 0 1 .253 .340 .441 .781 35
Actual Ari 240 52 7 0 8 22 33 6 19 4 56 0 1 .217 .291 .346 .636 24
Stinnett's steadily declining offensive numbers (.791/.728/.636 OPS in
1998-2000) as a Diamondback and his unimpressive arm resulted in a demotion
to the second slot of the platoon behind Damian Miller. Given Colangelo's
money problems and the fact that Stinnett made $700,000 more than Miller
in 2000 while being less effective, it made sense that he was not tendered
a contract. In 2001, he will battle Jason LaRue and Matt Walbeck for playing
time in Cincinnati.
Rod Barajas, c, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 70 18 4 0 2 9 11 1 3 1 10 0 0 .257 .293 .400 .693 8
Prorated Ari 12 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .257 .293 .400 .693 1
Actual Ari 13 3 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 .231 .231 .462 .692 1
Barajas saw little time behind the plate at the major league level and
had trouble jumping up one level in the minors. From 1999 to 2000, his
OPS dropped from .842 at El Paso (AA) to .633 at Tuscon (AAA). The 1999
Texas League's best defensive catcher (Baseball America) will have to
make a more successful jump to the majors or at least live up to his defensive
billing in order to seize the opportunity to backup Miller in 2001.
Erubiel Durazo, 1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 526 171 20 0 36 102 102 3 78 5 108 3 2 .325 .410 .568 .979 129
Prorated Ari 200 65 8 0 14 39 39 1 30 2 41 1 1 .325 .410 .568 .979 49
Actual Ari 196 52 11 0 8 35 33 1 34 2 43 1 0 .265 .373 .444 .817 35
In 1999, amid a Travis Lee slump, this Mexican League All-Star exploded
onto the scene and earned at least a platoon starting role with Greg Colbrunn
coming out of spring training last year. But Durazo's 2000 season was
as forgettable as his 1999 stint was memorable.
He played with a wrist injury that landed him on the DL three times.
He underwent arthroscopic surgery in early June to repair torn cartilage
in his right wrist but later reinjured the wrist and had season ending
surgery in August. Only days after his season was cut short, Durazo sustained
minor injuries in a three-car accident.
Durazo is expecting to be ready for 2001 and hopes his luck will change
for the better. So far there hasn't been a change in his luck considering
Arizona signed Mark Grace to play first base in 2001, bringing uncertainty
to Durazo's role.
Greg Colbrunn, 1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 69 21 4 0 2 9 10 1 5 0 13 1 1 .304 .360 .449 .809 11
Prorated Ari 354 108 21 0 10 46 51 5 26 0 67 5 5 .304 .360 .449 .809 57
Actual Ari 329 103 22 1 15 48 57 10 43 2 45 0 1 .313 .405 .523 .928 69
Heading into spring training, Colbrunn seemed destined to continue his
role of valuable pinch-hitter and occasional starter. But he began the
year in a platoon with Durazo and ended it as the everyday first baseman
when Durazo suffered chronic wrist problems all season.
His 116 games were the most he played since 1996, and he made the most
of them. Colbrunn set career highs in on-base percentage (.405) and slugging
(.523) as one of the few positives in a disappointing offense. His success
is linked to a newfound patience at the plate. He walked at a much improved
rate after displaying little plate discipline early in his career. Despite
his improvements, Colbrunn may once again find himself in a reduced role
in 2001 with the offseason signing of Mark Grace.
Jay Bell, 2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 561 154 29 3 28 104 91 5 80 2 124 4 4 .275 .367 .487 .853 103
Prorated Ari 556 153 29 3 28 103 90 5 79 2 123 4 4 .275 .367 .487 .853 102
Actual Ari 565 151 30 6 18 87 68 3 70 0 88 7 3 .267 .348 .437 .786 90
After his career year in 1999, we expected Bell's numbers to come back
closer to his norms, but they actually dropped all the way down to his
career averages. In one year he lost 20 homers and went from leading the
league in home runs by a middle infielder to league average offensive
production. While his range is declining with age, he cut his errors by
14 from a year ago (22 down to 8). Bell has two years and about $14 million
remaining on the large contract he signed before the 1998 season.
Craig Counsell, 2b/3b/ss, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 65 16 3 0 1 9 7 1 8 1 8 0 0 .246 .338 .338 .676 8
Prorated Ari 153 38 7 0 2 21 17 2 19 2 19 0 0 .246 .338 .338 .676 19
Actual Ari 152 48 8 1 2 23 11 2 20 0 18 3 3 .316 .400 .421 .821 26
After losing jobs with Florida and LA in 1999, Counsell played a lot
more than expected as a replacement for the often injured Matt Williams
at third. He proved to be a valuable utility infielder, playing solid
defense at second and third and reaching base 40% of the time.
Matt Williams, 3b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 382 110 20 1 20 59 73 2 30 5 66 3 1 .288 .341 .503 .843 63
Prorated Ari 364 105 19 1 19 56 69 2 29 5 63 3 1 .288 .341 .503 .843 60
Actual Ari 371 102 18 2 12 43 47 3 20 1 51 1 2 .275 .315 .431 .746 47
Williams was coming off an unusually healthy season in which he hit the
most homers (35) since his strike-shortened run at Maris' record in 1994.
But he began 2000 on the DL after a metal plate was inserted in his broken
right foot. Williams missed the first 43 games of the season then struggled
with a disabling strained right quadriceps and was bothered by a plantar
fasciatis in his left foot. The result of all these injuries was Williams'
worst power output in 12 seasons. Arizona hopes the more Williams-esque
numbers of September (.315, 6 HR, 20 RBI) are an indication that he is
healthy and on track for a better performance in 2001.
Danny Klassen, 3b/ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 68 16 3 0 2 10 8 1 5 0 15 1 1 .235 .293 .368 .661 7
Prorated Ari 79 19 3 0 2 12 9 1 6 0 17 1 1 .235 .293 .368 .661 8
Actual Ari 76 18 3 0 2 13 8 1 8 0 24 1 1 .237 .318 .355 .673 9
Klassen showed some pop for a middle infielder while playing in the Texas
League but has yet to do much in 59 games with the D-Backs over the past
three years. There appeared to be some hope for Klassen when Tony Batista
was traded in 1999, but Andy Fox and Hanley Frias were given a shot instead.
His opportunity diminished even more when Tony Womack was moved to short
last year, and Klassen can expect to be used only to fill in for the highly-paid
infield of Williams, Womack, and Bell in 2001.
Lenny Harris, 3b/rf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 152 41 8 0 2 16 16 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 16
Prorated Ari 84 23 4 0 1 9 9 1 5 1 6 1 1 .270 .313 .362 .675 9
Actual Ari 85 16 1 1 1 9 13 0 3 1 5 5 0 .188 .209 .259 .468 5
Prorated NYN 146 39 8 0 2 15 15 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 15
Actual NYN 138 42 6 3 3 22 13 0 17 1 17 8 1 .304 .381 .457 .837 25
Prorated Tot 230 62 12 0 3 24 24 2 14 2 17 3 3 .270 .313 .362 .675 24
Actual Tot 223 58 7 4 4 31 26 0 20 2 22 13 1 .260 .317 .381 .698 28
Although his total production fell in line with our projection, Harris'
contribution to Arizona was minimal. Harris was one of the many replacements
for Matt Williams who missed the first 43 games of the season. His offensive
numbers were worse than any of the other guys given a shot at third, so
it was no surprise when he was traded in early June to the Mets for pitcher
Bill Pulsipher. The surprise came when Harris completely turned his season
around with the Mets by getting on base often and showing improved extra
base power. His reward was more playing time and his first World Series
appearance.
Andy Fox, 3b/ss, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 197 53 8 1 4 29 21 6 24 3 42 5 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 30
Prorated Ari 78 21 3 0 2 11 8 2 9 1 17 2 1 .269 .364 .381 .745 12
Actual Ari 86 18 4 0 1 10 10 0 4 1 16 2 1 .209 .244 .291 .535 6
Prorated Flo 160 43 6 1 3 24 17 5 19 2 34 4 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 24
Actual Flo 164 40 4 2 3 19 10 3 18 3 37 8 3 .244 .330 .348 .677 20
Prorated Tot 238 64 10 1 5 35 25 7 29 4 51 6 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 36
Actual Tot 250 58 8 2 4 29 20 3 22 4 53 10 4 .232 .302 .328 .630 26
Fox was almost as bad as Lenny Harris in his attempt to fill the gaping
hole left by the injured Matt Williams through the first 7+ weeks of the
season. In his defense, Fox missed the first two weeks of the season with
a broken left hand which may have affected his performance. Like Harris,
the D-Backs gave up on Fox and traded him in early June to Florida for
right fielder Danny Bautista. And like Harris, Fox improved his numbers
with his new team but still put forth a below average performance.
Tony Womack, ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 626 182 25 6 7 99 50 2 52 1 85 60 10 .291 .345 .383 .728 93
Prorated Ari 596 173 24 6 7 94 48 2 50 1 81 57 10 .291 .345 .383 .728 88
Actual Ari 617 167 21 14 7 95 57 5 30 0 74 45 11 .271 .307 .384 .692 77
No one will argue that Womack can fly on the base paths, but he's one
of those players who brings to mind the cliche that you can't steal first
base. Showalter moved Womack from right field to short in the belief that
having Womack, Durazo, and Lee in the lineup would improve the offense.
This move mistakenly assumed that keeping a guy in your lineup with a
career on-base percentage of .322 and no power is good for your offense.
(A better move would have been not trading the powerful bat of
Tony Batista to Toronto in 1999, but what's done is done.) Womack dropped
22 walks from a year ago, resulting in his lowest OBP since becoming an
everyday player in 1997. Not coincidentally, his stolen base total was
also at an all-time low since becoming a regular.
From a defensive standpoint, Showalter's decision seemed puzzling because
Womack never showed good range as a second baseman with Pittsburgh, yet
he was now being moved to a more challenging position. In fact, Tony's
best position may be in the outfield where he can make better use of his
speed.
Hanley Frias, ss/2b/3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 66 16 2 0 0 10 6 0 8 0 10 3 1 .242 .324 .273 .597 7
Prorated Ari 114 28 3 0 0 17 10 0 14 0 17 5 2 .242 .324 .273 .597 11
Actual Ari 112 23 5 0 2 18 6 0 17 0 18 2 2 .205 .310 .304 .614 11
Frias saw significant time as the starting shortstop after Tony Batista
was traded in 1999. He filled in adequately by playing steady defense
and taking a lot of walks. In 2000, he walked less often and still had
no power. He's a versatile player who remained an asset on defense, but
he won't hold even a utility job much longer if doesn't hit more in the
future.
Luis Gonzalez, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 568 178 36 4 24 98 91 7 63 5 63 8 5 .313 .386 .518 .903 115
Prorated Ari 638 200 40 4 27 110 102 8 71 6 71 9 6 .313 .386 .518 .903 129
Actual Ari 618 192 47 2 31 106 114 12 78 6 85 2 4 .311 .392 .544 .935 135
Gonzalez cannot be blamed for Arizona's decline in offensive production.
After a career year in 1999, he essentially matched his production in
2000. Actually, this may have been his career year as he established career
highs in homers, RBI, doubles, and walks to name a few. The D-Backs recently
picked up his option for 2003, and you can bet Gonzalez doesn't miss his
Astrodome days.
Steve Finley, cf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 577 155 32 7 27 99 90 3 56 3 92 8 3 .269 .334 .489 .823 97
Prorated Ari 560 150 31 7 26 96 87 3 54 3 89 8 3 .269 .334 .489 .823 94
Actual Ari 539 151 27 5 35 100 96 8 65 7 87 12 6 .280 .361 .544 .904 108
Finley is another one of the few players who was not responsible for
the dropoff in scoring. The oldest everyday center fielder in the NL got
another year older but still managed to improve on his good 1999 numbers,
recording a new career high in home runs. Defensively, Finley was inexplicably
awarded the Gold Glove this year. Our analysis has never shown him to
have better than average range and it is only declining with age. It will
be interesting to see if Finley can maintain his offensive production
in 2001.
Danny Bautista, rf/cf/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 72 18 3 0 2 10 9 0 3 0 11 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 7
Prorated Flo 90 23 4 0 3 13 11 0 4 0 14 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 9
Actual Flo 89 17 4 0 4 9 12 0 5 0 20 1 0 .191 .234 .371 .605 8
Prorated Ari 282 71 12 0 8 39 35 0 12 0 43 4 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 28
Actual Ari 262 83 16 7 7 45 47 3 20 4 30 5 2 .317 .366 .511 .877 47
Prorated Tot 372 93 16 0 10 52 47 0 16 0 57 5 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 37
Actual Tot 351 100 20 7 11 54 59 3 25 4 50 6 2 .285 .333 .476 .809 54
When the platoon of Travis Lee and Bernard Gilkey failed early in the
season, Arizona acquired Bautista from Florida for Andy Fox in early June.
When the D-Backs packaged Lee and others in a trade to acquire pitching
help from Philly, Bautista was handed the everyday right field job. He
excelled with Arizona, posting his best offensive numbers to date.
Bautista may finally be coming into his own at age 28. Then again, he
might revert back to his career norms if he's given even more playing
time in the future. Arizona seems hesitant to hand him the starting job,
having recently signed Reggie Sanders, presumably as the starter in right.
If Sanders is unable to improve from his awful 2000 season, Bautista will
be next in line.
Travis Lee, rf/1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 387 102 15 1 15 59 56 1 58 4 72 10 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 62
Prorated Ari 216 57 8 1 8 33 31 1 32 2 40 6 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 35
Actual Ari 224 52 13 0 8 34 40 0 25 1 46 5 1 .232 .308 .397 .705 28
Prorated Phi 193 51 7 0 7 29 28 0 29 2 36 5 0 .264 .360 .424 .784 31
Actual Phi 180 43 11 1 1 19 14 2 40 0 33 3 0 .239 .381 .328 .709 26
Prorated Tot 410 108 16 1 16 62 59 1 61 4 76 11 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 65
Actual Tot 404 95 24 1 9 53 54 2 65 1 79 8 1 .235 .342 .366 .709 54
In 1996, 21-year-old Travis Lee signed a record $10 million bonus with
Arizona. Since then, Lee has not lived up to the expectations that come
with such a large price tag. Lee struggled to hit for average last year,
and his power was well below the norm for a right fielder. When Arizona
had the opportunity to acquire Curt Schilling, they sent Lee packing for
Philly in July. Philadelphia manager Terry Francona moved Lee back to
first, where he has very good range. Unfortunately for Lee and the Phillies,
he hit like a utility infielder the rest of the way.
Bernard Gilkey, rf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 209 54 12 0 6 30 31 2 28 1 43 3 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 30
Prorated Ari 70 18 4 0 2 10 10 1 9 0 14 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 10
Actual Ari 73 8 1 0 2 6 6 0 7 2 16 0 0 .110 .185 .205 .391 2
Prorated Bos 89 23 5 0 3 13 13 1 12 0 18 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 13
Actual Bos 91 21 5 1 1 11 9 3 10 0 12 0 0 .231 .327 .341 .668 10
Prorated Tot 159 41 9 0 5 23 24 2 21 1 33 2 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 23
Actual Tot 164 29 6 1 3 17 15 3 17 2 28 0 0 .177 .265 .280 .545 11
Gilkey slugged .500 in a part-time role in 1999, showing signs of returning
to his 1996 form (.317, 30 HR, 117 RBI for the Mets), and entered the
2000 season as the right-handed member of the RF platoon with Lee. But
it took only 81 plate appearances (including a 1 for 47 stretch) before
the plug was pulled on the platoon and Gilkey was released. He finished
the season with Boston but did not prove to be valuable there either.
He was recently signed by St. Louis and will try to earn a spot on their
bench in 2001.
Jason Conti, rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 68 17 2 1 1 12 6 1 6 0 11 2 1 .250 .320 .353 .673 8
Prorated Ari 90 22 3 1 1 16 8 1 8 0 15 3 1 .250 .320 .353 .673 10
Actual Ari 91 21 4 3 1 11 15 1 7 2 30 3 0 .231 .293 .374 .667 10
This former system Player of the Year got an opportunity when right field
became a black hole for the big club. In limited time he showed his speed
and pop (3 for 3 on steals, 3 triples in only 91 atbats) and displayed
a good arm in right. With the signings of Reggie Sanders and Midre Cummings,
Conti may not see much if any action at the major league level in 2001.
David Dellucci, rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 93 28 5 2 2 15 13 1 9 0 21 1 1 .301 .369 .462 .831 16
Prorated Ari 49 15 3 1 1 8 7 1 5 0 11 1 1 .301 .369 .462 .831 8
Actual Ari 50 15 3 0 0 2 2 0 4 0 9 0 2 .300 .352 .360 .712 6
Dellucci's league-leading 12 triples in 1998, solid glove work, and gaudy
.394 average (only 109 atbats) in 1999 had us wondering why this young
outfielder couldn't find a more prominent role with a big league club.
Unfortunately his 1999 season was cut short due to a left wrist injury,
and Dellucci was later diagnosed with a degenerative bone condition called
Kienbock's disease. In July of 1999, he had surgery to shorten a bone
in his left forearm. In 2000, he struggled in AAA and was not called up
until mid-August. Dellucci may see more time in the minors in 2001 due
to the signings of Reggie Sanders and Midre Cummings.
Key Pitchers
The oldest pitching staff in the majors started the season with its 1999
core intact. A year ago they finished second in the league in ERA and
third in runs allowed. While the 2000 staff didn't fare as well, pitching
was not this team's weakness. After two solid seasons, Omar Daal had a
horrible year, and the team failed to adequately fill the hole left by
the injured Todd Stottlemyre. The result was a team ERA that was half
a run higher than a year earlier and a slight drop to 5th in runs allowed.
But for the second straight year management made changes to fix pitching
problems. This time they didn't trade away guys with big upsides like
Tony Batista, Brad Penny, and Vladimir Nunez. Instead they sent a package
that included the disappointing Daal and Travis Lee to Philly for proven
starter Curt Schilling. While the trade did not result in a spot in the
playoffs, it solidifies their rotation for 2001.
Randy Johnson, starter, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.24 32 32 17 8 0 234 198 27 74 304 .230 .661
Prorated Ari 3.24 33 33 18 8 0 244 206 28 77 317 .230 .661
Actual Ari 2.64 35 35 19 7 0 249 202 23 76 347 .224 .643
Johnson's first-half dominance (14-2, 1.80) almost single-handedly kept
the Diamondbacks in first place through the All-Star break. He was brilliant
in the second-half of 1999 as well, and those two halves added up to a
22-4 record with a 1.85 ERA. Although he showed signs of being human in
the second half of 2000, his season was still good enough to earn his
second straight NL Cy Young award.
It's possible that his high pitch totals are starting to wear on the
36-year-old. Since joining the D-Backs, Johnson led the league in average
number of pitches per start with 120 in 1999 and finished second in 2000
with 115. The breaking point may have come on July 30th when Johnson threw
146 pitches against Florida in a seven-inning no-decision. He was 4-4
with a 3.72 ERA after that.
Todd Stottlemyre, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 4.52 32 32 11 11 0 191 197 23 77 163 .268 .765
Prorated Ari 4.52 16 16 5 5 0 94 97 11 38 80 .268 .765
Actual Ari 4.91 18 18 9 6 0 95 98 18 36 76 .268 .799
It's been a tough couple of years for Stottlemyre, who came back from
ACL surgery in 1999, had his season cut short because of elbow problems
in 2000, and is dealing with his father's (Yankee pitching coach Mel Sr.)
cancer treatments. The bottom line for the D-Backs is that in two years
they've paid about $16 million for 196.2 innings, a 15-9 record, and a
4.48 ERA. Those numbers may not be bad for one season, but that kind of
money calls for at least 400 productive innings in two years.
He entered the season knowing he had problems with his right elbow, but
he tried to battle through the tendinitis. The result was his highest
ERA since his rookie season (1988). Much of that can be linked to his
trouble with the long ball, allowing homers at the highest rate of his
career. In 2001, Stottlemyre hopes to fully recover from offseason surgery
that repositioned the ulnar nerve in his right elbow.
Omar Daal, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.91 32 32 15 9 0 212 203 22 78 164 .254 .714
Prorated Ari 3.91 16 16 8 5 0 109 104 11 40 84 .254 .714
Actual Ari 7.22 20 16 2 10 0 96 127 17 42 45 .315 .904
Prorated Phi 3.91 11 11 5 3 0 74 71 8 27 58 .254 .714
Actual Phi 4.69 12 12 2 9 0 71 81 9 30 51 .290 .810
Prorated Tot 3.91 28 28 13 8 0 183 176 19 67 142 .254 .714
Actual Tot 6.14 32 28 4 19 0 167 208 26 72 96 .305 .866
You know you had a bad season when the best thing that can be said is,
"At least he didn't lose 20 games." In his first two seasons
with Arizona, Daal was one of the best lefties in the league, allowing
opponent batting averages of .245 and .236 in 1998 and 1999, respectively.
No one could predict the freefall he experienced in 2000. The results
were awful across the board including a jump in opponents batting average
to .315 (with Arizona). The Diamondbacks got fed up and included Daal
in a deal with Philly to bring a proven veteran starter (Schilling) to
their rotation. Daal pitched slightly better in Philadelphia but his record
suffered the same fate thanks to a lack of run support from the league's
worst offense.
Armando Reynoso, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 5.22 32 32 10 12 0 186 214 23 76 102 .291 .809
Prorated Ari 5.22 28 28 9 11 0 163 188 20 67 89 .291 .809
Actual Ari 5.27 31 30 11 12 0 171 179 22 52 89 .273 .772
Reynoso was better than his ERA indicates. While he averaged less than
six innings per start, he still managed to have more quality starts than
Curt Schilling. His underlying numbers are more consistent with an ERA
in the 4.25 range. So why was his real ERA a full run higher? Reynoso
got pounded with runners in scoring position, allowing batters to hit
.310 and slug .535. Maybe he couldn't get the big out this season or maybe
he was just unlucky. There is no historical trend that implies he has
trouble in these situations so I wouldn't be surprised to see Reynoso's
ERA bounce back in 2001.
Brian Anderson, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 5.08 27 27 9 9 0 165 188 29 34 95 .287 .795
Prorated Ari 5.08 34 34 11 11 0 205 235 36 42 119 .287 .795
Actual Ari 4.05 33 32 11 7 0 213 226 38 39 104 .275 .789
Anderson was projected to be Arizona's 5th starter but ended up being
their next best after Randy Johnson. He and his left-handed teammate finished
in the top 10 in quality starts on a list that also includes guys named
Brown, Glavine, and Maddux. His success lies with his control. Anderson's
39 walks were the second fewest in the NL and his walks per 9 innings
were second only to Greg Maddux. His achilles heel is the long ball. Anderson's
38 long flies were second in the majors only to Jose Lima's record-chasing
48 with Houston. If he can cut down the homerun totals, Anderson can contribute
more in 2001 as the 3rd or 4th starter.
Curt Schilling, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.64 26 26 13 8 0 190 175 23 51 183 .245 .703
Prorated Phi 3.64 16 16 8 5 0 116 106 14 31 111 .245 .703
Actual Phi 3.91 16 16 6 6 0 113 110 17 32 96 .253 .737
Prorated Ari 3.64 13 13 6 4 0 95 87 11 25 91 .245 .703
Actual Ari 3.69 13 13 5 6 0 98 94 10 13 72 .257 .679
Prorated Tot 3.64 29 29 14 9 0 210 193 25 56 202 .245 .703
Actual Tot 3.81 29 29 11 12 0 210 204 27 45 168 .255 .711
When Schilling was acquired on July 26th, the Diamondbacks were in a
virtual tie for first place (56-45) with the Giants. From that point the
team went 29-32 and finished in third place, 12 games behind San Fran.
How could a team with two proven aces in their starting rotation play
under .500?
The answer has very little to do with Curt Schilling. As a D-Back, he
pitched as well as you would expect for a guy coming off shoulder surgery.
He beat the mid-May return as projected by the Phillies, but he may have
come back too soon. It looks like it took him 8 starts for his shoulder
to be back to normal. In his first 8 starts he was 1-4 with a 6.34 ERA.
In his final 21 starts, he improved to 10-8 with a 3.02 ERA. Despite the
late start and weak shoulder, he still managed to lead the league in complete
games for the third time in his career. If the shoulder is back to full
strength, the combination of Schilling and the Big Unit could give Arizona
the best one-two punch in 2001.
Geraldo Guzman, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Ari 5.37 13 10 5 4 0 60 66 8 22 52 .286 .776
Arizona signed Guzman out of the Dominican Republic prior to the 2000
season so we had no basis for a projection. He made six excellent starts
in AAA before getting a mid-season callup to help fill the void left by
the injured Todd Stottlemyre. His first two major league starts were brilliant
(2-0, .56 ERA), earning him a spot in the rotation. Guzman's success was
short lived as his next six starts lasted less than 5 innings per start,
compiling an 8.89 ERA in that time. He finished the season in the bullpen
and as a spot starter. I expect Guzman to make more minor league starts
in 2001, but he may get a callup if there are injuries to the Arizona
rotation.
Mike Morgan, reliever/starter, age 40
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 6.21 34 4 4 6 0 83 101 14 28 45 .306 .884
Prorated Ari 6.21 42 5 5 7 0 101 124 17 34 55 .306 .884
Actual Ari 4.87 60 4 5 5 5 102 123 10 40 56 .311 .814
Morgan's 20th season with his record 12th different team may have been
his most interesting. Arizona allowed him to try every pitching role --
closer, setup man, long reliever, and starter. He succeeded in the first
two months of the season as fill-in closer for the injured Matt Mantei
and as setup man when Byun-Yung Kim became the fill-in closer. In that
time Morgan was 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA, 5 for 6 in save opportunities, and
had 4 holds. The rest of the season was spent mostly as a middle reliever
and spot starter, but the results were disappointing (4-5, 5.99 ERA).
I'm guessing the D-Backs will use Morgan in a similar fill-in role in
his 21st season.
Vicente Padilla, middle reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 5.29 19 0 1 1 0 17 21 2 6 10 .309 .854
Prorated Ari 5.29 36 0 2 2 0 32 40 4 11 19 .309 .854
Actual Ari 2.31 27 0 2 1 0 35 32 0 10 30 .242 .582
Prorated Phi 5.29 37 0 2 2 0 33 41 4 12 19 .309 .854
Actual Phi 5.34 28 0 2 6 2 30 40 3 18 21 .328 .921
Prorated Tot 5.29 73 0 4 4 0 65 80 8 23 38 .309 .854
Actual Tot 3.72 55 0 4 7 2 65 72 3 28 51 .283 .747
If nothing else, Padilla's outstanding 35 innings for Arizona upped his
trade value to help bring Schilling over from Philly. As a D-Back he did
not allow a homerun and only 5 of the 32 hits he allowed went for extra
bases. The Phillies welcomed the effective 22-year-old as a throw-in to
the trade, but it didn't take much time for Padilla to fit in with his
last place teammates. Opponents showed no brotherly love and slugged 220
points higher against Padilla with his new team.
Dan Plesac, lefty specialist, age 38
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 4.42 53 0 3 2 0 55 58 8 20 65 .270 .780
Prorated Ari 4.42 40 0 2 2 0 42 44 6 15 49 .270 .780
Actual Ari 3.15 62 0 5 1 0 40 34 4 26 45 .228 .670
Plesac entered his free agent year with Arizona thinking it would be
his last. His success resulted in a change of plans, and he recently signed
a two year deal with Toronto. Righties had more trouble against the lefty
specialist, hitting a mere .194 with only 2 extra base hits. Lefties may
have fared slightly better against Plesac, but we can assume only the
best hitting lefties were allowed to face him. In 2001, he returns to
the team that traded him to Arizona. He will be 40 when the contract expires.
Russ Springer, middle reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.22 70 0 5 2 2 73 63 7 36 75 .232 .688
Prorated Ari 3.22 63 0 4 2 2 65 56 6 32 67 .232 .688
Actual Ari 5.08 52 0 2 4 0 62 63 11 34 59 .261 .818
The Diamondbacks signed Springer to be the right-handed setup man to
Matt Mantei. He was coming off his best season with Atlanta the year before,
so Arizona had high hopes for an improved bullpen. Springer got off to
a rocky start and never really recovered. In Atlanta, he allowed the third
fewest percentage of inherited runners to score (14%), but a year later
he fell to the 10th worst (41%). It's hard to be a successful late inning
reliever when you frequently allow homeruns. Springer allowed round-trippers
at his highest rate in five years. As he enters 2001 in the last year
of a two-year deal (club option for 2002), Springer hopes to return to
his 1999 form.
Greg Swindell, middle reliever, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.91 70 0 4 3 1 74 73 10 26 56 .259 .755
Prorated Ari 3.91 71 0 4 3 1 74 74 10 26 57 .259 .755
Actual Ari 3.20 64 0 2 6 1 76 71 7 20 64 .247 .673
Since becoming a full-time reliever in 1997, Swindell has been one of
the best bullpen lefties around. For the second straight year with Arizona,
Swindell dominated left-handed hitters. He was even better this year,
holding them to a .159 average and only 4 extra base hits in 107 atbats.
Swindell had a tougher time with the fair share of righties he faced.
He was also effective when brought in with men on base, finishing 6th
in the league in fewest inherited runners allowed to score (15%). With
the departure of Dan Plesac, Swindell will be relied on more heavily against
lefties in 2001.
Byung-Hyun Kim, middle reliever/closer, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 2.95 40 0 4 2 0 55 39 5 35 70 .200 .649
Prorated Ari 2.95 53 0 5 3 0 73 52 7 47 93 .200 .649
Actual Ari 4.46 61 1 6 6 14 71 52 9 46 111 .200 .683
Kim's versatility was tested in 2000. Early in the season, he filled
in as closer for the injured Mantei. He even made his first major league
start (a forgettable experience), but he mostly remained in his long relief
role. Kim's sidearm delivery makes him virtually unhittable against righties
(.170 AVG), but he must improve his control to be an effective late-inning
reliever. He issued free passes at an astounding rate of almost 6 walks
per 9 innings. He did allow the fourth fewest inherited runners to score,
so he performed well in crucial situations. If Kim decreases his walk
rate, he can expect to be brought into more crucial situations in 2001.
Matt Mantei, closer, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.07 70 0 5 5 36 70 56 6 45 97 .218 .688
Prorated Ari 3.07 44 0 3 3 23 45 36 4 29 62 .218 .688
Actual Ari 4.57 47 0 1 1 17 45 31 4 35 53 .193 .660
Mantei spent time on the DL in April and May with arm problems. When
he wasn't on the DL, he walked just about everyone in sight, and his ERA
was 9.72 at the end of June. But from July 1st to the end of the season,
Mantei's control was a little better, and he had a 1.57 ERA and converted
15 of 16 save opportunities. Although he's a flyball pitcher, he keeps
the ball in the park because batters struggle to get good wood on his
high heat. If he improves his control, Mantei can be a dominant closer
for years to come.
Outlook
The Diamondbacks were old to begin with, and the moves they've made in
the past six months have made them even older. Going into 2001, the average
age of their projected starting lineup and rotation is 34. It's risky
to depend on older players to remain healthy for an entire season. Will
Johnson and Schilling be at their peak, or will they be worn down by age
and their high workloads? Will Todd Stottlemyre have his first healthy
season in three years? Will Matt Williams be at full strength? The answers
to these questions will largely determine Arizona's success.
Mark Grace and Reggie Sanders were the significant signings of the offseason.
If Sanders can return to his 1999 form he becomes a steal at $1.5 million
and stabilizes the right field situation. Grace improves their defense
at first but creates a logjam at that position if Durazo is healthy. If
Sanders and Grace play to their capabilities, and Womack gets on base
at a respectable rate, they should score more runs next year, assuming
players like Finley and Gonzalez don't suddenly get old.
They didn't lose any key players to free agency, so there's enough veteran
talent here to give new manager Bob Brenly reason to believe they can
make a run at the division title if everything goes right. But it's a
tough division, and if age begins to catch up with this team, they could
finish as low as fourth.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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