2000 Post-Season Review -- Atlanta Braves
By Tom Tippett
January 15, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Atlanta Braves did in the 2000 season
relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used
in this review, a definition of some of the key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 916 810
Runs allowed 703 714
Run Margin 213 96
Wins 101 95
Pythagorean wins 102 91
Placement 1st 1st
George Bush (the elder) was President the last time the Braves failed
to win their division. The 95 wins they amassed in 2000 was their lowest
total since 1991 (if you extrapolate the 1994-95 seasons to 162 games).
Atlanta has averaged 36 games over .500 in the past ten years.
And in those ten seasons, only six other franchises have produced even
one season better than the Braves' composite .615 winning percentage --
Yankees and Indians twice each, and Montreal, Houston, Arizona, and San
Francisco once.
Unfortunately for Braves fans, their regular season dominance has translated
into only one World Series victory. With nine shots at it and either four
or eight teams making the playoffs, a normal haul would have been 2-3
championships. In 1991, the Twins beat them in a memorable World Series.
The next year, they lost to the Blue Jays in six. The Phillies beat them
in the 1993 NLCS. Atlanta finally won it all in 1995, defeating a very
good Cleveland team that year. They were in control of the 1996 series
before the Yankees rallied to take it in six. Then they went two years
without even reaching the World Series, dropping the NLCS to the upstart
Florida Marlins in 1997 and to the Padres in 1998. They made it back to
the series in 1999 but lost to the Yankees again. Finally, the Cardinals
took them out in the first round of the 2000 playoffs.
Going into the season, I thought this might be one of their best teams
ever. They had loads of pitching, even after John Smoltz was lost for
the year, and it seemed as if they had finally assembled a batting order
that was among the most potent in the league. But the offense never got
going and the Braves were quite fortunate to win 95 games and eke out
a one-game victory over the Mets in the NL East. Once again, a very weak
bench was a significant part of the story.
Key Position Players
The Braves had every reason to believe their NL scoring rank would be
significantly better than their 7th place finish in 1999. They improved
the top of the order when they traded for Quilvio Veras and Reggie Sanders,
and they had to figure that the returns of Andres Galarraga and Javy Lopez
would help them cash in those extra baserunners. In fact, it appeared
this lineup could easily be among the top three offenses in the league.
But Sanders was a bust, Veras missed half the season, a few regulars
(Lopez, Galarraga, Brian Jordan) were a little below their normal rates
of production, and the bench was awful. Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones
were better than expected, but nobody stepped with with a big-time breakout
season that made up for these other problems. The result was an offense
that scored 810 runs, good for 6th in the NL.
Javy Lopez, c, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 487 144 29 2 28 71 94 5 41 4 83 2 3 .296 .354 .536 .890 88
Prorated Atl 475 141 28 2 27 69 92 5 40 4 81 2 3 .296 .354 .536 .890 85
Actual Atl 481 138 21 1 24 60 89 4 35 3 80 0 0 .287 .337 .484 .822 73
One of the big reasons for Braves fans to be excited about the 2000 was
the return of Lopez to the lineup after he missed the second half of 1999
with a knee injury. His power production was down a little, but since
his rookie year in 1994, he has produced 22-24 homers per 480 atbats in
every season but one. That makes his career high of 34 homers in 1998
look more and more like an anomaly. Still, he remains one of the better
hitting catchers in baseball.
Eddie Perez, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 89 24 5 0 3 10 11 1 7 1 13 0 0 .270 .327 .427 .753 12
Prorated Atl 20 5 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .270 .327 .427 .753 3
Actual Atl 22 4 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 .182 .182 .227 .409 1
Atlanta's longtime backup and personal catcher for Greg Maddux was sidelined
for the year in early May after surgery to his throwing shoulder. He was
missed, as the Braves were unable to find another backup catcher to provide
even the moderate level of offense that they could expect from a healthy
Perez. But his health is a legitimate concern. In December, 1999, he had
surgery on his knee and his other shoulder. Even with the advances in
modern medicine, one has to wonder whether Perez will make it all the
way back after three operations in the past thirteen months.
Fernando Lunar, c, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Atl 54 10 1 0 0 5 5 3 3 1 15 0 2 .185 .267 .204 .470 2
Actual Bal 16 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 .125 .176 .125 .301 0
Actual Tot 70 12 1 0 0 5 6 4 3 1 19 0 2 .171 .247 .186 .432 3
Lunar wasn't even on the radar screen before the season but was promoted
to the backup role when Perez went down for the year. He didn't hit a
lick and was traded to Baltimore.
Paul Bako, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 67 17 4 0 1 6 7 0 7 1 15 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 8
Prorated Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 0
Actual Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Prorated Flo 166 42 10 0 2 15 17 0 17 2 37 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 20
Actual Flo 161 39 6 1 0 10 14 1 22 7 48 0 0 .242 .335 .292 .627 16
Prorated Atl 56 14 3 0 1 5 6 0 6 1 13 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 7
Actual Atl 58 11 4 0 2 8 6 0 5 3 15 0 0 .190 .254 .362 .616 5
Prorated Tot 224 57 13 0 3 20 23 0 23 3 50 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 27
Actual Tot 221 50 10 1 2 18 20 1 27 10 64 0 0 .226 .312 .308 .620 21
Bako began the season as the Astros third-string catcher and wound up
doing a lot of traveling (one of seven players to appear with three or
more teams last year). Florida put him on waivers when he didn't hit,
preferring to go with prospect Ramon Castro, and Atlanta picked him up
on waivers because the inexperienced Lunar was totally ineffective at
the plate. This was Bako's worst season as a hitter, and if he can bounce
back to his 1999 level (.256 with a good walk rate and doubles power),
that plus his strong arm may keep him in the game as a backup for a few
more years.
Andres Galarraga, 1b, age 39
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 469 138 22 2 32 87 99 17 52 6 116 6 4 .294 .382 .554 .936 101
Prorated Atl 474 140 22 2 32 88 100 17 53 6 117 6 4 .294 .382 .554 .936 102
Actual Atl 494 149 25 1 28 67 100 17 36 5 126 3 5 .302 .369 .526 .895 91
One of the feel-good stories of the year was Galarraga's return from
a year off while he was treated for cancer. I had doubts about whether
he could maintain his skills -- it's hard enough for a player in his late-30s
to stay at a high level, but to do so after chemotherapy and a year off
is remarkable. He had 20 homers at the break and only 8 thereafter, leading
some to speculate that he was wearing down in the second half. After the
season, he became a free agent and signed a one-year deal with Texas.
Wally Joyner, 1b, age 38
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 122 36 7 1 3 16 20 1 18 2 16 0 0 .295 .387 .443 .830 22
Prorated Atl 223 66 13 2 5 29 37 2 33 4 29 0 0 .295 .387 .443 .830 40
Actual Atl 224 63 12 0 5 24 32 1 31 3 31 0 0 .281 .365 .402 .767 36
Atlanta cornered the market on old first basemen last year, but it didn't
hurt them. Joyner matched his career on-base average and came up a little
short in the power department, but he did bounce back nicely from a horrible
1999 season. He's a free agent now.
Quilvio Veras, 2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 554 158 29 3 9 100 54 4 83 1 87 29 13 .285 .380 .397 .778 90
Prorated Atl 312 89 16 2 5 56 30 2 47 1 49 16 7 .285 .380 .397 .778 51
Actual Atl 298 92 15 0 5 56 37 5 51 0 50 25 12 .309 .413 .409 .823 54
Veras' ability to get on base was a big reason why the Braves were projected
to win 100 games. Their 1999 lineup had real problems at the top of the
order, and the trade that sent Ryan Klesko and Brett Boone to San Diego
for Veras and Reggie Sanders figured to solve that problem in a hurry.
Veras was a terrific leadoff hitter but was lost for the season after
tearing a knee ligament and undergoing surgery in mid-July. This was a
major blow to the team's chances in the second half and the post-season.
Keith Lockhart, 2b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 67 17 3 0 1 9 8 0 7 0 8 0 0 .254 .320 .343 .663 8
Prorated Atl 280 71 13 0 4 38 33 0 29 0 33 0 0 .254 .320 .343 .663 32
Actual Atl 275 73 12 3 2 32 32 0 29 7 31 4 1 .265 .331 .353 .684 32
Lockhart stepped into the void created by Veras's injury and gave the
team exactly what they had a right to expect given his age and past performance.
Chipper Jones, 3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 578 178 35 2 35 115 109 1 109 9 92 18 3 .308 .415 .557 .972 139
Prorated Atl 571 176 35 2 35 114 108 1 108 9 91 18 3 .308 .415 .557 .972 137
Actual Atl 579 180 38 1 36 118 111 2 95 10 64 14 7 .311 .404 .566 .970 136
Chipper wasn't quite able to replicate his MVP season from the year before,
but he remained one of the top players in the league and was rewarded
for several years of consistently excellent play with a big contract extension
that should keep in Atlanta for many years to come.
Drafted as a shortstop, Jones has average range at third but made 23
errors last year (that's about four more than the average 3B in the same
amount of playing time), and there was some talk that Jones might be moved
to the outfield to make room for prospect Wes Helms (.288 with 20 homers
at AAA, but very few walks) at third. That now seems unlikely, as the
Braves have been unable to unload Brian Jordan's salary and probably won't
move anyone to first now that they have signed Rico Brogna as a free agent.
Walt Weiss, ss, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 412 103 20 4 3 62 40 3 64 1 67 7 2 .250 .352 .340 .692 56
Prorated Atl 190 47 9 2 1 29 18 1 29 0 31 3 1 .250 .352 .340 .692 26
Actual Atl 192 50 6 2 0 29 18 3 26 1 32 1 1 .260 .353 .313 .665 24
Last spring, manager Bobby Cox said Weiss was his starter but he would
try to find opportunities to get youngster Rafael Furcal into the lineup
a couple of days a week. Even though Weiss continued to get on base at
a respectable clip, his lack of power became more acute and his defense
declined significantly. As a result of his decline and Furcal's surprising
ability to make the leap all the way from A ball, Weiss played only sparingly
(and much less effectively) in the second half. He retired after the season.
Rafael Furcal, ss, age 19 (or 21?)
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 186 48 7 2 0 32 10 2 16 0 27 22 6 .258 .324 .317 .641 21
Prorated Atl 492 127 19 5 0 85 26 5 42 0 71 58 16 .258 .324 .317 .641 57
Actual Atl 455 134 20 4 4 87 37 3 73 0 80 40 14 .295 .394 .382 .776 79
After much was made of Furcal's surprising maturity for a 19-year-old
and the fact that he'd be the first player born in the 1980s to play in
the big leagues, it was reported (but never confirmed) that Furcal might
actually be two years older than that. Either way, it was a very impressive
debut for a young player who had never played above A ball before. His
strike zone awareness is very unusual for such a young player. He should
add power as he develops, and his defense should improve with experience,
but he'll be a valuable player for many years to come even if he merely
maintains his current level.
Reggie Sanders, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 593 166 28 7 27 108 86 8 74 2 142 30 12 .280 .367 .487 .854 108
Prorated Atl 330 92 16 4 15 60 48 4 41 1 79 17 7 .280 .367 .487 .854 60
Actual Atl 340 79 23 1 11 43 37 2 32 2 78 21 4 .232 .302 .403 .705 42
What a disappointment. Atlanta scored 106 fewer runs than projected,
and Sanders accounts for a big chunk of that deficit. Hopes were high
after Sanders reached base 38% of the time, hit 26 homers and stole 36
bases with San Diego the year before. But he got off to an awful start
(.179 with minimal power through the break) and struggled with ankle and
hamstring injuries that landed him on the disabled list for a total of
five weeks.
Lost in his season totals is the fact that he really got it going in
the second half. Had he played that well for the full season, he would
have had one of the two best seasons of his career. But if his strong
finish turns out to be an omen for 2001, the Braves won't benefit. Sanders
became a free agent and signed with Arizona.
Bobby Bonilla, lf, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 65 16 3 0 2 8 10 0 9 1 10 0 0 .246 .333 .385 .718 8
Prorated Atl 241 59 11 0 7 30 37 0 33 4 37 0 0 .246 .333 .385 .718 31
Actual Atl 239 61 13 3 5 23 28 1 37 2 51 0 0 .255 .356 .397 .754 36
Bobby Cox is often referred to as one the of the better managers of our
time. But some of his personnel decisions have left me wondering what
he was thinking, and this was one of them. Bonilla is a terrible outfielder,
but Cox gave him 63 starts (plus one at third) anyway. He was ok as a
hitter, but his power was well below the league average and much less
than you need from an outfielder in today's game. In Cox's defense, he
couldn't have known that Reggie Sanders would have such a terrible, injury-riddled
season, but I still wonder why he would set aside a precious roster spot
for a one-dimensional player like Bonilla.
B.J. Surhoff, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 607 173 34 1 25 90 96 2 47 5 74 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 94
Prorated Bal 405 116 23 1 17 60 64 1 31 3 49 3 1 .285 .334 .468 .802 63
Actual Bal 411 120 27 0 13 56 57 2 29 3 46 7 2 .292 .341 .453 .793 64
Prorated Atl 131 37 7 0 5 19 21 0 10 1 16 1 0 .285 .334 .468 .802 20
Actual Atl 128 37 9 2 1 13 11 1 12 0 12 3 0 .289 .352 .414 .766 19
Prorated Tot 536 153 30 1 22 79 85 2 41 4 65 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 83
Actual Tot 539 157 36 2 14 69 68 3 41 3 58 10 2 .291 .344 .443 .787 83
Desperate for a solution to their left field problem, Atlanta dealt for
Surhoff in one of last year's better trade deadline deals. Atlanta needs
to go all out to win another World Series or two before Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz
get too old. Surhoff is not a superstar -- his offensive production was
only at the league average last year -- but he's a good hitter, a very
good fielder, and a solid professional.
Andruw Jones, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 572 161 33 6 30 98 91 6 66 7 111 24 8 .281 .361 .517 .878 108
Prorated Atl 644 181 37 7 34 110 103 7 74 8 125 27 9 .281 .361 .517 .878 121
Actual Atl 656 199 36 6 36 122 104 9 59 0 100 21 6 .303 .366 .541 .907 132
Jones has been around long enough that it's easy to forget that he's
still only 23 years old. Each of his last four seasons has been better
than the one before, and if he continues to improve at the current rate,
he'll be incredible in his prime and his career numbers will be among
the best ever. Bill James gives him a 29% chance for 500 career homers,
a 12% chance for 600 homers, and a 22% chance for 3000 hits.
Andruw is also among the best defensive CFs in the game, even though
our analysis suggests that he wasn't quite as good in 2000 as in the previous
two years, when he was far and away the best. He has always played very
shallow, enabling him to make a lot of plays on short line drives that
fall in front of most CFs. Through 1999, he also showed an amazing ability
to chase down the long drives in the gaps and to deep center field. Our
analysis shows that more of those deep balls dropped for extra base hits
in 2000, but even so, he remained among the best at his position.
Brian Jordan, rf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 570 165 30 4 22 97 100 9 50 1 75 13 6 .289 .353 .472 .825 95
Prorated Atl 482 140 25 3 19 82 85 8 42 1 63 11 5 .289 .353 .472 .825 80
Actual Atl 489 129 26 0 17 71 77 5 38 1 80 10 2 .264 .320 .421 .742 66
Jordan's disappointing season was one of the reasons why the Braves didn't
meet expectations on offense. Early in the year, he spent two weeks on
the disabled list with a sore rib-cage muscle and played with the same
injury for several more weeks. A partially torn rotator cuff plagued him
all year and led to speculation that he would need off-season surgery.
And he was forced to alter his stance to keep his weight off a banged-up
knee for a while. Jordan deserves praise for refusing to leave the lineup
despite all of these ailments. His numbers might have improved had he
been given time off to recover, but the Braves didn't have any other options
for most of the year.
George Lombard, rf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 66 15 3 1 2 8 7 1 8 1 23 5 1 .227 .320 .394 .714 9
Prorated Atl 36 8 2 1 1 4 4 1 4 1 13 3 1 .227 .320 .394 .714 5
Actual Atl 39 4 0 0 0 8 2 1 1 0 14 4 0 .103 .146 .103 .249 1
Once a hot prospect, Lombard had a respectable AAA season (.365 on-base
percentage with moderate power) but did nothing in two stints with the
big club -- 2-for-21 in July/August and 2-for-18 in September. Had Lombard
realized the potential he showed in 1998, when he reached base 41% of
the time and slugged .543 at AA, Cox might have been able to give Jordan
some rest and keep Bonilla out of the lineup.
Key Pitchers
It's amazing, when you think about it, that a team could lose a pitcher
like John Smoltz for the year (Tommy John surgery) and still be favored
to lead the league in staff ERA. The league's best four-deep rotation
became the league's best three-deep rotation, but even with so-so veterans
like John Burkett and Terry Mulholland filling out the starting five,
the Braves led the league in fewest runs allowed for the ninth consecutive
year.
Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine bounced back from subpar 1999 seasons to
combine for 40 wins, helping to offset the loss of Smoltz and a disappointing
campaign from Kevin Millwood. The bullpen, a major weakness for this club
a few years ago, has become an asset, finishing fourth in the league in
relief ERA despite losing Kevin McGlinchey and Rudy Seanez for long stretches.
Bruce Chen, Kerry Ligtenberg, John Rocker and (especially) Mike Remlinger
carried most of the load, regularly coming to the rescue of the starters
at the tail end of the rotation.
Greg Maddux, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.63 32 32 15 9 0 221 226 16 38 155 .268 .678
Prorated Atl 3.63 36 36 17 10 0 249 255 18 43 175 .268 .678
Actual Atl 3.00 35 35 19 9 0 249 225 19 42 190 .238 .614
Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have grabbed most of the headlines the
past two seasons, but let's not forget about Maddux. When his ERA ballooned
to 3.57 in 1999, it was still a run below the league average, and he still
went 19-9. And that was the first time since 1991 that his ERA had a three
on the front end. In fact, the high-water mark in that span was 2.72 (in
1996) and each of the other six seasons were below 2.40.
His 1999 season was so out of character -- enemy hitters batted .294
and his strikeout rate dropped by more than 20% -- that I have to believe
that he was pitching hurt. I recall reading about a wrist injury that
cost him a start in late August, but it wasn't made out to be anything
series. Maybe it was more serious than they let on, or maybe there was
another problem that nobody talked about.
It didn't take long for Maddux to show that he was back in good form
last year. He ended May with a 7-1 record and an ERA in the low twos,
struggled a little through the summer months, then finished strong (5-1,
2.03) when the Braves were battling the Mets for the division lead and
pushing for home field advantage in the playoffs.
Tom Glavine, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.97 32 32 13 10 0 211 219 18 72 133 .271 .717
Prorated Atl 3.97 35 35 14 11 0 234 242 20 80 147 .271 .717
Actual Atl 3.40 35 35 21 9 0 241 222 24 65 152 .244 .672
Like Maddux, Glavine struggled in 1999 but picked it up a notch when
the Braves needed it most. With Smoltz out for the season and Millwood
struggling, Glavine responded with his fifth 20-win season, a total that
is matched only by Roger Clemens among active pitchers and that leaves
the other aces of our day -- including Maddux 2, Cone 2, Johnson 1, Brown
1, Martinez 1, Schilling 0 -- in the dust.
Kevin Millwood, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.23 32 32 15 7 0 203 175 21 62 177 .232 .662
Prorated Atl 3.23 35 35 16 8 0 221 190 23 67 192 .232 .662
Actual Atl 4.66 36 35 10 13 0 213 213 26 62 168 .258 .731
Coming off a superb 1999 season (18-7, 2.68) in which he was arguably
the second- or third-best pitcher in the league, it seemed as if Millwood
was ready to take over the role of staff ace. Roughly ten years younger
than Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, Millwood presumably still had his best years
in front of him. That's probably true, but 2000 wasn't one of them. His
strikeouts were down, and a lot of those extra batted balls turned into
hits. His stats are more consistent with an ERA in the 3.80 range, but
even if his real ERA had been that low, it's a far cry from what Atlanta
rooters were looking for.
Terry Mulholland, reliever, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.51 32 32 11 11 0 196 214 21 57 106 .281 .761
Prorated Atl 4.51 27 27 9 9 0 165 181 18 48 89 .281 .761
Actual Atl 5.11 54 20 9 9 1 157 198 24 41 78 .308 .825
The Smoltz injury opened up a spot in the rotation for the left-handed
Mulholland, who has been more effective as a reliever than as a starter
in recent years. That was true again last year, and Mulholland was moved
back into the bullpen midway through the season after giving up a whopping
165 hits and 20 homers in 122 innings as a starter. In 34 relief appearances,
he gave up less than a hit per inning, kept the ball in the yard, and
reduced his ERA to 3.37. His future would appear to be in the bullpen
even though he's allowed lefties to hit over .290 in each of the past
two seasons. Mulholland became a free agent after the season and will
be with Pittsburgh in 2001.
Terry is still next to impossible to run on -- one runner actually succeeded
this year, but three other brave souls were cut down. Since 1995, opposing
runners have dared to challenge him only 24 times in 1649 opportunities
-- an average pitcher would have seen 101 attempts in this span -- and
18 of them have failed. That's an average of one SB allowed per year.
It doesn't get any better than that.
Bruce Chen, reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.61 27 27 8 8 0 160 155 28 73 166 .253 .776
Prorated Atl 4.61 7 7 2 2 0 40 39 7 18 42 .253 .776
Actual Atl 2.50 22 0 4 0 0 40 35 4 19 32 .232 .715
Prorated Phi 4.61 15 15 4 4 0 87 85 15 40 91 .253 .776
Actual Phi 3.63 15 15 3 4 0 94 81 14 27 80 .232 .687
Prorated Tot 4.61 22 22 6 6 0 127 123 22 58 132 .253 .776
Actual Tot 3.29 37 15 7 4 0 134 116 18 46 112 .232 .696
Even though Chen is young and gave up a bunch of homers (11 in 51 innings)
the year before, I don't see why Bobby Cox didn't open the season with
Chen in the rotation ahead of Burkett and Mulholland. Or why he didn't
give Chen a shot when those two were getting rocked so often early in
the year. Or why he was traded for a guy (Ashby) who had an ERA in the
mid-5s at the time.
Chen went on to pitch pretty well for Philly, though he continued to
give up the longball too often. Ashby pitched fairly well for the Braves,
but he's now with the Dodgers, and I'll bet Atlanta is wishing they still
had Chen on the roster.
John Burkett, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 5.01 4 4 1 2 0 23 28 3 7 18 .298 .807
Prorated Atl 5.01 23 23 6 12 0 135 162 17 41 104 .298 .807
Actual Atl 4.89 31 22 10 6 0 134 162 13 51 110 .303 .810
Going into the season, it had been four years since Burkett had given
up fewer than 37 more hits than innings pitched. That's a lot of
base hits, friends, and you'd better have good control and keep the ball
in the yard if you're going to survive at that rate. After back-to-back
seasons with ERAs above 5.60, we didn't think Burkett would win a job
in 2000, so he was projected to be nothing more than a guy who would fill
in when someone got hurt.
For reasons that I don't fully understand, Bobby Cox handed him the ball
23 times. Granted, he didn't have a lot of options after Smoltz
went down for the year, but he did have Bruce Chen. And where exactly
is the evidence that Burkett was suddenly going to start getting guys
out on a regular basis? He wasn't terrible, but he did allow the league
to bat over .300 for the third time in four years. Surely a smart guy
like Cox wasn't suckered by Burkett's 10-6 record, a mark that was built
not on pitching prowess but 7.1 runs per game of support from his offense.
Andy Ashby, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.45 32 32 12 12 0 212 225 27 59 133 .275 .765
Prorated Phi 4.45 16 16 6 6 0 108 114 14 30 68 .275 .765
Actual Phi 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 101 113 17 38 51 .288 .831
Prorated Atl 4.45 15 15 6 6 0 98 103 12 27 61 .275 .765
Actual Atl 4.13 15 15 8 6 0 98 103 12 23 55 .271 .743
Prorated Tot 4.45 31 31 12 12 0 205 218 26 57 129 .275 .765
Actual Tot 4.92 31 31 12 13 0 199 216 29 61 106 .280 .788
Ashby has averaged over 200 innings per year since 1997 and has consistently
produced at the league average or better in that span. Except for the
drop in strikeouts, this season was in line with his recent years, allowing
for a slight decline due to age. A free agent after the season, Ashby
signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal with the Dodgers. That might seem
like a lot of money for a guy with a 4.92 ERA, but with really good pitchers
going for $15-17 million per, it's not out of line.
Stan Belinda, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.20 40 0 3 3 0 54 59 11 22 55 .280 .860
Prorated Col 5.20 28 0 2 2 0 37 41 8 15 38 .280 .860
Actual Col 7.07 46 0 1 3 1 36 39 10 17 40 .277 .961
Prorated Atl 5.20 9 0 1 1 0 12 13 2 5 12 .280 .860
Actual Atl 9.82 10 0 0 0 0 11 16 4 5 11 .348 1.168
Prorated Tot 5.20 37 0 3 3 0 49 54 10 20 50 .280 .860
Actual Tot 7.71 56 0 1 3 1 47 55 14 22 51 .294 1.012
Unfortunately, this may be the end of the road for Belinda. Two years
ago, he was diagnosed as being in the early stages of multiple sclerosis,
and he's waged a courageous battle to prolong his career in the face of
that illness. Colorado released him in late July, and when Belinda didn't
fare any better with Atlanta, he left the team in early September to return
home and ponder his retirement. As far as I know, he hasn't formally announced
his retirement, but he hasn't signed with anyone for the coming season,
either.
Scott Kamieniecki, reliever, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 5.23 27 4 3 3 0 52 59 6 24 30 .291 .819
Prorated Cle 5.23 18 3 2 2 0 35 40 4 16 20 .291 .819
Actual Cle 5.67 26 0 1 3 0 33 42 6 20 29 .311 .930
Prorated Atl 5.23 13 2 1 1 0 25 29 3 12 15 .291 .819
Actual Atl 5.47 26 0 2 1 2 25 22 3 22 17 .239 .799
Prorated Tot 5.23 31 5 3 3 0 60 68 7 28 35 .291 .819
Actual Tot 5.59 52 0 3 4 2 58 64 9 42 46 .282 .876
Gotta love those veterans. Cox seems to, anyway. Kamieniecki was designated
for assignment by the Indians in late June and was signed by the Braves
after he exercised his right to refuse the assignment and become a free
agent. An appalling lack of control limited his effectiveness, and he
is once again a free agent.
Kerry Ligtenberg, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 2.88 53 0 4 2 6 59 46 7 20 64 .214 .637
Prorated Atl 2.88 48 0 4 2 5 54 42 6 18 58 .214 .637
Actual Atl 3.61 59 0 2 3 12 52 43 7 24 51 .226 .717
Nobody really knew how well Ligtenberg would pitch, or how long he would
last, after a torn elbow ligament cost him the entire 1999 season. He
was inconsistent in the early going but was in top form the rest of the
way after spending ten days in AAA in mid-May. Ligtenberg came out of
nowhere (well, out of an independent league) to save 30 games in 34 chances
in 1998, then picked up another 12 saves in 14 chances last year.
Jason Marquis, reliever, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 5.82 3 3 1 1 0 17 19 3 9 11 .288 .877
Prorated Atl 5.82 4 4 1 1 0 22 25 4 12 15 .288 .877
Actual Atl 5.01 15 0 1 0 0 23 23 4 12 17 .261 .796
This hard-throwing youngster has moved quickly through the Braves system,
never really dominating at any level, but showing no signs that he was
being rushed, either. He was banged around pretty good in six AAA starts,
but held his own in his first exposure to major-league hitters. Should
be a good one, but might need one more year of seasoning.
(Then again, Cox might wait until Marquis is in his thirties before he
gains enough confidence in him. I know, that was a cheap shot, and I apologize.
I guess I still harbor some resentment from my Toronto days. I thought
Cox should have been fired for the dreadful way he managed the talented
Blue Jays teams in the mid-1980s, especially in the 1985 ALCS against
Kansas City, when he chose to start Dave Stieb on three days rest and
committed many other tactical sins. But I digress. To be fair, Cox has
occasionally shown faith in young pitchers -- Steve Avery comes to mind
-- and has a very good track record of keeping pitchers healthy.)
Kevin McGlinchy, reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 3.82 70 0 6 4 3 97 98 9 39 88 .263 .725
Prorated Atl 3.82 7 0 1 0 0 10 10 1 4 9 .263 .725
Actual Atl 2.16 10 0 0 0 0 8 11 1 6 9 .314 .843
After a terrific debut season in 1999 (7-3, 2.82 in 70 relief innings),
McGlinchy allowed 17 baserunners in 8 innings in three brief stints that
were sandwiched around a pair of long visits to the disabled list (shoulder
tendinitis). He's rehabbing that shoulder again, but after three setbacks
in eight months, cannot be sure he'll be ready for the coming season.
Greg McMichael, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 5.18 30 0 1 3 0 40 46 7 18 32 .291 .856
Prorated Atl 5.18 10 0 0 1 0 14 16 2 6 11 .291 .856
Actual Atl 4.41 15 0 0 0 0 16 12 3 4 14 .214 .637
McMichael was pitching quite well when he tore his rotator cuff on May
27th. He tried rehabbing the shoulder for a month but chose to have surgery
in July when it became clear that he wouldn't be able to pitch again in
2000. He's now a free agent.
Gabe Molina, reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.08 13 0 1 1 0 18 17 3 10 15 .258 .790
Prorated Bal 4.08 12 0 1 1 0 17 16 3 9 14 .258 .790
Actual Bal 9.00 9 0 0 0 0 13 25 2 9 8 .397 .983
Prorated Atl 4.08 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 2 .258 .790
Actual Atl 9.00 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 1 .375 1.205
Prorated Tot 4.08 14 0 1 1 0 19 19 3 11 16 .258 .790
Actual Tot 9.00 11 0 0 0 0 15 28 3 10 9 .394 1.008
As you can see, Molina has struggled mightily at the major-league level
to this point, but better things should lie ahead. Groomed as a closer,
he's been effective in just about every way in a strong minor-league career
-- low hits to innings ratio, good control, few homers allowed, and more
than one strikeout per inning -- so better things lie ahead for this young
man.
Mike Remlinger, reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.39 70 0 5 5 1 96 93 13 45 90 .254 .753
Prorated Atl 4.39 52 0 4 4 1 71 69 10 33 67 .254 .753
Actual Atl 3.47 71 0 5 3 12 73 55 6 37 72 .207 .628
After Remlinger had a couple of mediocre seasons with Cincinnati, who
tried him as a starting pitcher, Remlinger has put together two terrific
seasons in the Atlanta bullpen. You'd like to see him reduce his walk
rate a little, but there's precious little to complain about other than
that. He held opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and a .320 slugging
average -- shutting down both left- and right-handed hitters for the second
year in a row -- and notched 5 wins, 23 holds and 12 saves.
Rudy Seanez, reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 2.96 23 0 2 1 0 24 21 2 11 24 .233 .654
Prorated Atl 2.96 20 0 2 1 0 21 18 2 9 21 .233 .654
Actual Atl 4.29 23 0 2 4 2 21 15 3 9 20 .192 .605
When healthy, Seanez has been a valuable right-handed setup man for the
Braves since 1998. Unfortunately, he has battled a series of injuries
in that time and saw his 2000 season end in June when an MRI revealed
a complete tear in the medial collateral ligament in his elbow. That led
to Tommy John surgery and a projected 12-18 months of rehab. If all goes
well, Seanez could be available in the second half of the coming season,
but he's a free agent now, so it's not clear where he'll be pitching when
he does come back.
John Rocker, closer, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 2.77 70 0 5 5 36 75 57 7 39 89 .212 .648
Prorated Atl 2.77 56 0 4 4 29 59 45 6 31 71 .212 .648
Actual Atl 2.89 59 0 1 2 24 53 42 5 48 77 .210 .678
The story of Rocker's season was control, specifically the lack of it.
(I'm talking about walks, not his emotional makeup, though the two may
well be related.) When he got the ball over the plate, he was very good
-- 24 saves in 27 chances -- but there were stretches when Cox lost confidence
in him and handed the ball to Ligtenberg or Remlinger in save situations.
When a pitcher allows 100 baserunners in 53 innings, he usually has an
ERA a full two runs higher than Rocker's actual 2.89 mark. He was lucky
to get away with it this time around, and he needs to cut his walks in
half to remain an effective closer in the future.
Outlook
It's a tribute to their management prowess that they have been able to
stay ahead of the curve for so long, replacing aging players with youngsters
developed through their farm system, making key trades at the right time,
locking up the core of the team to long-term contracts before they made
it onto the free agent market, and refusing to be panicked into any stupid
moves along the way.
Atlanta has been pretty quiet since the end of the season. They didn't
lose any of their core players (Galarraga is a little too old to be considered
in that group), but they didn't make a serious run at any of the top free
agents, either. While there's no question that Mike Hampton, Alex Rodriguez
or Manny Ramirez would have made them a better team right now, their decision
to hold onto their money will give them more flexibility down the road.
If Smoltz comes back, their starting rotation remains the best in the
game, so the big question is whether they will score enough runs to be
a great team. Rico Brogna replaces Galarraga, a move that should help
the defense and hurt the offense. Andruw Jones should continue to improve.
Brian Jordan could have a better season if he's healthy. They have money
to rebuild their bench, though they have not yet made any meaningful moves
in that direction. As currently constituted, I think it's 50-50 as to
whether the 2001 Braves outscore their 2000 counterparts.
With the Mets having been weakened by the loss of Mike Hampton, and with
John Smoltz on track to return, I don't see any reason why the Braves
won't win their 11th straight division title. But the measure of this
franchise will be whether they can go all the way, and I think they need
another bat or two to enter the post-season as favorites to win it all.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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