2000 Post-Season Review -- Baltimore Orioles
By Zack Scott
January 17, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Baltimore Orioles did in the 2000
season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach
used in this review, a definition of some of the key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 831 794
Runs allowed 839 913
Run Margin -8 -119
Wins 81 74
Pythagorean wins 80 70
Placement 3rd 4th
Since winning 98 games and the AL East in 1997, the Orioles have averaged
only 77 wins. They sunk even further in 2000, finishing with the 4th-worst
record in the American League. Through these three years, it seems the
fans have pushed for owner Peter Angelos to give up on their aging players,
blow up the team, and begin rebuilding. But their ability to hover around
.500 always made Angelos hesitant to pull the trigger. And if the O's
had reached their projected 81 wins, he may have hesitated again.
But at this year's trading deadline, Baltimore's 46-58 record was only
1 1/2 games better than last place, so Angelos finally lit the fuse. But
did he wait too long? Were the players too old to bring the Orioles value
in return? When the deals were done, the O's had dealt their opening day
left fielder, shortstop, first baseman, catcher, DH, and closer in return
for a solid catcher, utility infielder, and several average prospects.
It didn't seem like Baltimore received much value in return, but the
results did improve. After July 31st, the Orioles finished 28-30, a winning
percentage 41 points higher than before that point. I believe their improvement
had more to do with pitcher Jose Mercedes getting in a groove, a much
better defense, and a schedule that had them playing weaker teams (and
teams that may have been experimenting with younger players) at the end
of the year. Nonetheless, Baltimore finished the season on a positive
note as they enter a rebuilding period.
Key Position Players
Considering Baltimore's deadline housecleaning sent 5 of their 9 everyday
starters to different teams, we can point fingers at several players to
blame for the AL's 4th worst offense. The season's bright spots included
career years (half years from the Orioles' perspective) from Charles Johnson
and Mike Bordick, clutch hitting from Delino DeShields, and flashes of
good things to come from Brook Fordyce, Chris Richard, and Jerry Hairston.
But there were far more dark clouds cast over the Baltimore skies for
an aging team whose lineup saw nine guys between the ages of 33 and 41
play significant roles. Age was surely a factor for Cal Ripken and Albert
Belle who were crippled by injuries, Harold Baines who kept hanging on
for personal goals, and a defense that made 30% more errors than the previous
year (fewest errors in the league in 1999).
Charles Johnson, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 481 119 22 0 21 60 65 4 60 3 122 0 0 .247 .335 .424 .759 68
Prorated Bal 280 69 13 0 12 35 38 2 35 2 71 0 0 .247 .335 .424 .759 40
Actual Bal 286 84 16 0 21 52 55 0 32 0 69 2 0 .294 .364 .570 .934 59
Prorated ChA 138 34 6 0 6 17 19 1 17 1 35 0 0 .247 .335 .424 .759 20
Actual ChA 135 44 8 0 10 24 36 1 20 0 37 0 0 .326 .411 .607 1.019 36
Prorated Tot 418 103 19 0 18 52 56 3 52 3 106 0 0 .247 .335 .424 .759 59
Actual Tot 421 128 24 0 31 76 91 1 52 0 106 2 0 .304 .379 .582 .961 95
With Ivan Rodriguez missing almost half of the season, Johnson was the
AL's best catcher in 2000. He had by far his best year, hitting 12 more
homers than his previous high and hitting 66 points higher than his career
average (coming into the season). Before the trading deadline, he and
Harold Baines were sent to Chicago in a six-player deal that brought Brook
Fordyce to Baltimore. Johnson was even better with the White Sox and returned
to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series with
Florida in 1997. In 2001, Johnson goes home to Miami for his second stint
with the Marlins.
Brook Fordyce, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChA 406 112 25 1 11 41 52 3 29 1 63 1 1 .276 .328 .424 .752 56
Prorated ChA 125 34 8 0 3 13 16 1 9 0 19 0 0 .276 .328 .424 .752 17
Actual ChA 125 34 7 1 5 18 21 2 6 0 23 0 0 .272 .313 .464 .777 19
Prorated Bal 178 49 11 0 5 18 23 1 13 0 28 0 0 .276 .328 .424 .752 25
Actual Bal 177 57 11 0 9 23 28 2 11 0 27 0 0 .322 .361 .537 .898 35
Prorated Tot 303 84 19 1 8 31 39 2 22 1 47 1 1 .276 .328 .424 .752 42
Actual Tot 302 91 18 1 14 41 49 4 17 0 50 0 0 .301 .341 .507 .848 53
Fordyce missed the first 7+ weeks of the season due to a broken left
foot. He returned from the DL and played to expectations for the next
couple of months with the White Sox. Chicago traded him to the Orioles
at the deadline in order to rent Charles Johnson and add a lefty bat to
their bench (Baines) for the stretch run. Fordyce found his stroke with
the O's, smashing 9 homeruns in the final two months. Baltimore hopes
his late-season success can carry over into 2001, when Fordyce will be
the starting catcher in his first full season as an Oriole.
Greg Myers, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 67 18 3 0 2 7 8 0 8 1 11 0 0 .269 .347 .403 .750 9
Prorated Bal 120 32 5 0 4 13 14 0 14 2 20 0 0 .269 .347 .403 .750 16
Actual Bal 125 28 6 0 3 9 12 0 8 0 29 0 0 .224 .271 .344 .615 10
Myers has called five different ballparks home over the last four years.
In his first year with Baltimore, he hit for his lowest average (.224)
since 1989 and saw his walk-strikeout ratio deteriorate significantly.
Hargrove showed no confidence in Myers against lefties; Myers stepped
to the plate only 8 times against southpaws. In 2001, he will spend the
last year of his contract with Baltimore backing up Fordyce.
Will Clark, 1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 506 143 31 0 19 78 71 4 68 6 83 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 88
Prorated Bal 269 76 16 0 10 41 38 2 36 3 44 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 47
Actual Bal 256 77 15 1 9 49 28 4 47 3 45 4 2 .301 .413 .473 .886 54
Prorated StL 171 48 10 0 6 26 24 1 23 2 28 0 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 30
Actual StL 171 59 15 1 12 29 42 3 22 0 24 1 0 .345 .426 .655 1.081 49
Prorated Tot 439 124 27 0 16 68 62 3 59 5 72 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 76
Actual Tot 427 136 30 2 21 78 70 7 69 3 69 5 2 .319 .418 .546 .964 103
Clark played like a 25-year-old instead of acting his age. Although he
didn't hit his first homerun until June 11th, he went on to hit 9 more
over the next 7 weeks as an Oriole. At the deadline, he was traded to
St. Louis for third base prospect Jose Leon. Subbing for the injured Mark
McGwire, Clark did his best Big Mac impersonation -- incredibly, Clark's
OPS was still 148 points lower than McGwire's -- and compiled his
best season since 1989. Although he seemed to be playing with renewed
energy, yielding very good results, Clark announced his retirement after
the season.
Chris Richard, 1b/rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 67 16 3 0 3 9 11 1 6 0 11 1 1 .239 .307 .418 .725 8
Prorated StL 16 4 1 0 1 2 3 0 1 0 3 0 0 .239 .307 .418 .725 2
Actual StL 16 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 .125 .222 .313 .535 1
Prorated Bal 197 47 9 0 9 27 32 3 18 0 32 3 3 .239 .307 .418 .725 24
Actual Bal 199 55 14 2 13 38 36 4 15 3 38 7 5 .276 .335 .563 .898 35
Prorated Tot 214 51 10 0 10 29 35 3 19 0 35 3 3 .239 .307 .418 .725 26
Actual Tot 215 57 14 2 14 39 37 4 17 3 40 7 5 .265 .326 .544 .871 36
In separate deals with St. Louis, the Orioles acquired Richard (for Mike
Timlin) and, a few days later, sent Will Clark to the Cardinals, clearing
a position for Richard to play. In the final two months of the season,
the 26-year-old rookie showed more power than Clark ever did with the
O's. If he wants to play everyday, Richard needs to learn to hit lefties
with some power. Only 2 of his 30 extra base hits were against lefties.
His defense at first was poor, so his future may be in the outfield, especially
with the recent signing of David Segui to play first base. It will be
interesting to see where Richard fits in this year.
Delino DeShields, 2b/lf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 569 156 23 7 12 88 59 2 66 1 82 26 13 .274 .350 .402 .752 83
Prorated Bal 566 155 23 7 12 88 59 2 66 1 82 26 13 .274 .350 .402 .752 83
Actual Bal 561 166 43 5 10 84 86 1 69 2 82 37 10 .296 .369 .444 .813 95
Coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season, DeShields was fighting
off Jerry Hairston to keep his job in 2000. He responded by hitting a
career best .296 average and driving in 28 more runs than his previous
high. His success can be traced to timely hitting (.346 with men in scoring
position) and a career high 58 extra base hits. The Orioles moved DeShields
to left in order to get Hairston's glove into the lineup, and DeShields
enters 2001 as the likely starting left fielder.
Jerry Hairston Jr., 2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 68 17 3 0 1 10 7 2 4 0 8 3 1 .250 .311 .338 .649 7
Prorated Bal 192 48 8 0 3 28 20 6 11 0 23 8 3 .250 .311 .338 .649 21
Actual Bal 180 46 5 0 5 27 19 6 21 0 22 8 5 .256 .353 .367 .719 23
Hairston elected to bypass off-season surgery on his left shoulder in
an attempt to seize the chance to win the starting second base job in
2000. The decision made sense because DeShields' poor 1999 performance
opened the door. Unfortunately, Hairston's injury proved to be too painful
and he had surgery in late May. He made his first major league appearance
in August and showed improved patience from the previous year. His very
good range prompted the O's to move DeShields to left and award Hairston
the everyday second base job, which he should retain in 2001.
Cal Ripken Jr., 3b, age 39
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 518 149 29 0 18 67 69 5 42 2 58 0 0 .288 .344 .448 .792 78
Prorated Bal 308 88 17 0 11 40 41 3 25 1 34 0 0 .288 .344 .448 .792 47
Actual Bal 309 79 16 0 15 43 56 3 23 0 37 0 0 .256 .310 .453 .763 42
The ultimate iron man made his first career trip to the DL in 1999 then
missed all of July and August in 2000 with the same lower back injury.
This season, Ripken experienced another first -- his first start at DH.
Unlike the previous year, he played to his age, resulting in his lowest
on-base percentage since becoming a regular in 1982. Injury also played
a role in holding him under 100 hits for the first time in that same period.
Despite his back problems over the last two seasons, Ripken has shown
very good power. His 1999-2000 numbers add up to 43 doubles and 33 homers
in about a full season's work, which would represent his best "season"
since he won the MVP in 1991. Cal signed a one-year contract worth $6.3
million to play in his 21st season as an Oriole in 2001.
Jeff Conine, 3b/1b/dh/rf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 157 42 10 0 5 18 23 1 13 0 23 0 0 .268 .324 .427 .750 22
Prorated Bal 410 110 26 0 13 47 60 3 34 0 60 0 0 .268 .324 .427 .750 56
Actual Bal 409 116 20 2 13 53 46 2 36 1 53 4 3 .284 .341 .438 .779 58
Conine has never been better than a league average hitter in the American
League, and this year was no exception. He saw considerably more playing
time than expected due to injuries to Cal Ripken and Albert Belle. In
fact, Conine made most of his starts at third base (38) after never starting
a game at that position in his career. It turns out his previous managers
had good reasons for keeping him out of the hot corner, as Conine showed
horrible range and had the same fielding percentage as Troy Glaus (who
led all third basemen in errors with 33).
Conine's value is in a platoon role at first base. He's always been a
very good defensive 1B, and he torched lefties at a .333 clip while slugging
.567 last year. Conine should see significantly less playing time in 2001
with David Segui signed on to play first.
Ryan Minor, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 68 15 3 0 2 8 8 1 5 0 19 0 0 .221 .280 .353 .633 7
Prorated Bal 80 18 4 0 2 9 9 1 6 0 22 0 0 .221 .280 .353 .633 8
Actual Bal 84 11 1 0 0 4 3 1 3 0 20 0 0 .131 .170 .143 .313 2
Minor has shown a lack of discipline at the plate in his brief major
league career, walking at a rate of 1 out of every 21 plate appearances
(1 out of 10 is average) and striking out six times more often than he
walks. Once considered to be Baltimore's third baseman of the future,
the O's finally gave up on Minor and traded him to Montreal, where he
probably won't play much behind Fernando Tatis and Geoff Blum.
Mark Lewis, 3b/2b/ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 69 17 4 0 2 8 9 0 5 0 12 0 0 .246 .293 .391 .685 8
Prorated Cin 18 5 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .246 .293 .391 .685 2
Actual Cin 19 2 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 3 0 0 .105 .150 .158 .308 0
Prorated Bal 164 40 9 0 5 19 21 0 12 0 28 0 0 .246 .293 .391 .685 18
Actual Bal 163 44 17 0 2 19 21 1 12 0 31 7 2 .270 .322 .411 .733 21
Prorated Tot 182 45 11 0 5 21 24 0 13 0 32 0 0 .246 .293 .391 .685 20
Actual Tot 182 46 18 0 2 20 24 1 13 0 34 7 2 .253 .305 .385 .689 21
In late April, Lewis was claimed off of waivers from Cincinnati to give
the Orioles infield depth with Jerry Hairston on the DL. Lewis played
more than expected due to Ripken's injuries and the trade of Mike Bordick
to the Mets. As an Oriole, Lewis hit a little better than expected but
made 7 errors in his limited time at third (a rate that extrapolates to
about 50 errors in a full season) and showed below average range at second
and short. Baltimore was not impressed and he is now a free agent.
Mike Bordick, ss, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 536 137 27 3 11 71 60 6 48 1 82 6 5 .256 .320 .379 .699 63
Prorated Bal 383 98 19 2 8 51 43 4 34 1 59 4 4 .256 .320 .379 .699 45
Actual Bal 391 116 22 1 16 70 59 1 34 0 71 6 5 .297 .350 .481 .831 63
Prorated NYN 187 48 9 1 4 25 21 2 17 0 29 2 2 .256 .320 .379 .699 22
Actual NYN 192 50 8 0 4 18 21 2 15 0 28 3 1 .260 .321 .365 .685 23
Prorated Tot 570 146 29 3 12 75 64 6 51 1 87 6 5 .256 .320 .379 .699 66
Actual Tot 583 166 30 1 20 88 80 3 49 0 99 9 6 .285 .341 .443 .783 85
The typically light-hitting shortstop started the season hitting more
like teammate Albert Belle in his prime. Bordick went hitless in only
3 games in April and finished the month with a .352 AVG, .682 SPC, and
a league-leading 29 RBI (although I don't have the official April leader
boards handy). The quick start set him on track for a career year, setting
new highs in homeruns, RBI, and slugging percentage. As part of the team's
dismantling, Bordick was shipped to the Mets for Melvin Mora, Mike Kinkade,
and Leslie Brea. Bordick's production with the Mets was more in line with
original expectations.
Bordick re-signed with the Orioles as a free agent after the season.
Baltimore is investing $9 million over the next two seasons in hopes that
they're getting something closer to the April Bordick than the September
Bordick (.184 AVG, .224 SPC).
Melvin Mora, ss, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 98 23 4 0 1 15 9 2 12 0 17 3 2 .235 .327 .306 .634 11
Prorated NYN 206 48 8 0 2 32 19 4 25 0 36 6 4 .235 .327 .306 .634 22
Actual NYN 215 56 13 2 6 35 30 2 18 3 48 7 3 .260 .317 .423 .740 30
Prorated Bal 189 44 8 0 2 29 17 4 23 0 33 6 4 .235 .327 .306 .634 20
Actual Bal 199 58 9 3 2 25 17 4 17 0 32 5 8 .291 .359 .397 .756 27
Prorated Tot 395 93 16 0 4 61 36 8 48 0 69 12 8 .235 .327 .306 .634 43
Actual Tot 414 114 22 5 8 60 47 6 35 3 80 12 11 .275 .337 .411 .748 57
Mora was given the opportunity to be an everyday shortstop with both
the Mets (Rey Ordonez injury) and Orioles (acquired for Mike Bordick)
and proved that his best role is as a utility player. Although he showed
more power than expected, Mora's best asset is his ability to play 7 positions.
At short, he made 19 errors in 96 games, a rate that projects to about
30 errors in a full season. Mora returns to the bench in 2001 as a backup
to Bordick and Hairston.
B.J. Surhoff, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 607 173 34 1 25 90 96 2 47 5 74 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 94
Prorated Bal 405 116 23 1 17 60 64 1 31 3 49 3 1 .285 .334 .468 .802 63
Actual Bal 411 120 27 0 13 56 57 2 29 3 46 7 2 .292 .341 .453 .793 64
Prorated Atl 131 37 7 0 5 19 21 0 10 1 16 1 0 .285 .334 .468 .802 20
Actual Atl 128 37 9 2 1 13 11 1 12 0 12 3 0 .289 .352 .414 .766 19
Prorated Tot 536 153 30 1 22 79 85 2 41 4 65 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 83
Actual Tot 539 157 36 2 14 69 68 3 41 3 58 10 2 .291 .344 .443 .787 83
After a career year in 1999 in which he scored and knocked in more than
100 runs for the first time, the O's were counting on Surhoff for a strong
season in 2000 as their #3 hitter. Although he performed as expected,
the results were not much better than the league average. His homerun
power dropped to his lowest total since becoming an Oriole in 1996, resulting
in his lowest RBI total in 6 years. He continued to show diminished homerun
power after Baltimore sent a tearful Surhoff to the Braves in a five-player
deal at the trade deadline.
Brady Anderson, cf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 578 153 31 5 23 103 75 20 89 5 98 24 8 .265 .380 .455 .835 109
Prorated Bal 516 137 28 4 21 92 67 18 79 4 88 21 7 .265 .380 .455 .835 97
Actual Bal 506 130 26 0 19 89 50 8 92 5 103 16 9 .257 .375 .421 .796 89
When I think about Brady Anderson, I still wonder how this guy hit 50
homers in 1996. This may be one of the best examples of an unexplained
statistical anomaly in the history of the game. In Anderson's 12
other seasons, he never hit half as many homeruns in one year,
and those 50 bombs account for one quarter of his 13-year career total.
Anderson's disappointing slugging percentage of .421 was 216 points lower
than in his miracle season. A nagging foot injury and his advancing age
may account for a dropoff in steals and his first year without a triple.
In 2001, Baltimore plans to move Anderson to right field to replace Albert
Belle, who will DH.
Gene Kingsale, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 68 16 2 0 0 9 5 1 5 0 10 3 2 .235 .297 .265 .562 5
Prorated Bal 83 19 2 0 0 11 6 1 6 0 12 4 2 .235 .297 .265 .562 7
Actual Bal 88 21 2 1 0 13 9 0 2 0 14 1 2 .239 .253 .284 .537 5
A torn right quadriceps muscle prevented Kingsale from showing off his
track-star speed in center field. At this early point in his career, he
doesn't appear to be strong enough to hit big-league pitching and may
be destined to never be more than a bench outfielder used as a pinch runner
and defensive replacement. As a testament to how bad the Orioles are offensively,
Kingsale will have a shot as the starting center fielder in 2001.
Luis Matos, cf/rf, age 21
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Bal 182 41 6 3 1 21 17 3 12 0 30 13 4 .225 .281 .308 .589 15
Like Kingsale, Matos will have a shot to win the starting center field
job. If he does win the job, it will be based on his defense, not his
bat. He needs to find a way to get on base so he can use his speed, and
to do that he'll need to improve upon his career minor league average
of .266 and OBP of .323.
Albert Belle, rf/dh, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 559 164 34 1 36 94 110 4 79 9 81 7 3 .293 .381 .551 .932 116
Prorated Bal 537 157 33 1 35 90 106 4 76 9 78 7 3 .293 .381 .551 .932 112
Actual Bal 559 157 37 1 23 71 103 4 52 11 68 0 5 .281 .342 .474 .817 86
Belle limped through the second half of the season with what he learned
later to be a degenerative hip problem similar to the injury that ended
Bo Jackson's football and baseball careers. The bad hip limited Belle's
power, resulting in his worst homerun total and slugging percentage since
becoming a regular in 1991. He went into the break hitting .296 with 18
homers, only to hit .259 with 5 homers the rest of the way. If Belle is
able to play in 2001, it will have to be as a DH because the injury has
made him too much of a liability in the outfield.
Harold Baines, dh, age 41
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 580 171 27 1 28 80 118 1 68 6 71 0 1 .295 .368 .490 .858 100
Prorated Bal 224 66 10 0 11 31 46 0 26 2 27 0 0 .295 .368 .490 .858 39
Actual Bal 222 59 8 0 10 24 30 0 29 6 39 0 0 .266 .349 .437 .786 34
Prorated ChA 60 18 3 0 3 8 12 0 7 1 7 0 0 .295 .368 .490 .858 10
Actual ChA 61 13 5 0 1 2 9 0 7 1 11 0 0 .213 .294 .344 .638 7
Prorated Tot 285 84 13 0 14 39 58 0 33 3 35 0 0 .295 .368 .490 .858 49
Actual Tot 283 72 13 0 11 26 39 0 36 7 50 0 0 .254 .338 .417 .754 40
Baines is the third-oldest player in the game (1. Jesse Orosco, 2. Rickey
Henderson) and may just be sticking around to pick up the 145 hits he
needs to reach 3000 and the 16 homeruns he needs to reach 400. After four
consecutive seasons of hitting over .300, Baines hit almost 40 points
below his career average. At the deadline, Baltimore packaged Baines and
Charles Johnson in a trade with the White Sox for Brook Fordyce. In his
third tour of duty with the Sox, Baines played sparingly behind Frank
Thomas. Baines signed a minor league contract with Chicago and will have
to earn a spot on their roster in 2001.
Key Pitchers
The Orioles staff finished 1999 with the 4th best ERA and 3rd fewest
runs allowed due to the strength of their starting rotation. To be competitive
in 2000, Baltimore knew they would need to once again ride their three
horses -- Mike Mussina, Scott Erickson, and Sidney Ponson. They figured
Pat Rapp was good for at least 150 innings and a combination of Jose Mercedes
and Jason Johnson could round out the rotation.
Mussina and Ponson proved to be dependable, finishing tied for third
in complete games, but Erickson was never healthy and his replacements
(Johnson, John Parrish, Jay Spurgeon) were just as ineffective. They were
forced to rely more on a shaky bullpen that finished with the second worst
save percentage and allowed more inherited runners to score than the previous
season.
For the second straight year, the Orioles had the AL's third-highest
walk total. That's bound to wear starters down and catch up to a weak
bullpen. In one year, Baltimore fell from 2nd in the league in turning
groundball double plays to 10th (20% decline in GDP), failing to erase
many of the runners given free passes to first. The end result was an
ERA more than a half a run higher than the previous year and a drop from
3rd fewest runs allowed to 3rd highest.
Mike Mussina, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.72 32 32 15 9 0 218 209 22 58 183 .254 .703
Prorated Bal 3.72 35 35 17 10 0 240 230 24 64 202 .254 .703
Actual Bal 3.79 34 34 11 15 0 238 236 28 46 210 .255 .695
Mussina's .645 career winning percentage is third among active pitchers
behind Pedro Martinez (.691) and Roger Clemens (.647), yet he experienced
his first losing season since becoming a staple in the O's rotation in
1992. The losing record was the result of pathetic offensive support (league's
worst 3.71 runs per 9 innings), not Mussina's pitching. The Moose has
been more like a horse for Baltimore, leading the league in innings pitched
in 2000 and averaging 223 innings over the last 6 seasons. He threw so
many innings this season partly because he didn't issue many free passes,
trailing only David Wells and Pedro in fewest walks per 9 innings.
Mussina signed a six-year $88.5 million contract with the Yankees to
be closer to his Pennsylvania home and win his first World Series in 2001.
While they get a consistent ace, there may be some cause for concern --
Mussina will be pitching in more of a hitters park than in Camden Yards
and was only 4-8 with a 4.93 ERA on the road last season.
Sidney Ponson, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.89 32 32 12 12 0 206 223 31 77 120 .278 .790
Prorated Bal 4.89 34 34 13 13 0 219 237 33 82 128 .278 .790
Actual Bal 4.82 32 32 9 13 0 222 223 30 83 152 .258 .740
In his first full season as a starter (1999), Ponson pitched well but
wore down in September due to a heavy work load. So he improved his conditioning
and showed up to spring training in 2000 significantly lighter. The hard
work paid off as Ponson was strong all the way through the season, averaging
almost 8 innings per start in his six September starts.
If his arm survives the stress of a work load that allowed him to be
in the top three in complete games for the second straight year, Ponson
has a bright future ahead. Although he allowed 30 homeruns, the damage
was minimal because he didn't put many men on base (AL's 9th fewest runners
per 9 innings). It's hard to believe he already has almost 600 innings
of experience at age 23. With Mussina gone to the Big Apple, Ponson will
battle Jose Mercedes for the title of #1 starter.
Pat Rapp, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.76 32 32 11 11 0 187 198 23 94 119 .275 .786
Prorated Bal 4.76 31 31 11 11 0 179 190 22 90 114 .275 .786
Actual Bal 5.90 31 30 9 12 0 174 203 18 83 106 .290 .832
Rapp has pitched through some tough personal times over the last two
seasons -- his wife's complicated pregnancy in 1999 and his father's death
in 2000. Through it all, Rapp made every effort to be there for his family
and his team when they needed him to take the mound. While his efforts
are commendable, the results just weren't there in 2000. Coming off a
strong second half of 1999, Rapp started 3-0 with a 4.70 ERA but was unable
to sustain his effectiveness, finishing with his highest ERA since his
first year in the majors. Rapp signed with Anaheim and will be replaced
in Baltimore by Pat Hentgen in 2001.
Scott Erickson, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.51 26 26 10 10 0 170 182 19 61 97 .280 .770
Prorated Bal 4.51 16 16 6 6 0 104 112 12 37 59 .280 .770
Actual Bal 7.87 16 16 5 8 0 93 127 14 48 41 .331 .912
It's hard to fault players for playing through pain, but when Erickson
decided not to take the year off, it hurt his team in 2000, and he may
not pitch in 2001. Erickson had bone chips removed from his right elbow
in spring training and was not available until May. He returned to take
a beating for three months before admitting that elbow pain prevented
him from effectively throwing his sinker. Erickson had successful Tommy
John surgery in early August and most likely won't be available until
2002. The injury broke Erickson's string of four seasons of 200+ innings
in which he averaged 231 innings per season.
Jose Mercedes, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 5.83 27 27 7 12 0 156 187 29 53 75 .297 .845
Prorated Bal 5.83 24 24 6 11 0 141 169 26 48 68 .297 .845
Actual Bal 4.02 36 20 14 7 0 146 150 15 64 70 .270 .781
After five years in Milwaukee and one year trying to find work with a
partially torn rotator cuff, Mercedes returned to the organization that
originally signed him in 1992. He began the season starting in place of
Erickson, but four bad starts (6.38 ERA) and Erickson's return sent Mercedes
to the bullpen. He continued to pitch poorly until given another shot
as a starter in July. Mercedes was the story of the second half for the
O's pitching staff, going 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA after the break. If he
can build off his strong finish, Mercedes will be Baltimore's #1 starter
in 2001.
Jason Johnson, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 5.01 4 4 1 2 0 23 24 4 11 16 .267 .805
Prorated Bal 5.01 19 19 5 10 0 112 116 19 53 77 .267 .805
Actual Bal 7.02 25 13 1 10 0 108 119 21 61 79 .278 .858
Not even the pitiful run support he received (3.68 runs per 9 innings
-- actually lower than Mussina's league-worst run support, but Johnson
doesn't have enough innings to qualify) can excuse Johnson's poor performance
this season. In two years with the Orioles, Johnson has made 34 starts
and is 8-15 (0-8 in 2000) with a 6.12 ERA while allowing 31 homers in
189.2 innings. His control problems (about a quarter more walks than an
average pitcher) and high homerun rate have proven to be a lethal combination.
He will try to earn the fifth spot in Baltimore's 2001 rotation.
John Parrish, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Bal 7.18 8 8 2 4 0 36 40 6 35 28 .288 .899
Bad pitching rotations open the door for young guys who would normally
not get a shot. Left-hander John Parrish made eight starts and showed
some potential, but he needs to cut down on those walks (about 1 per inning)
if he wants a chance to be the fifth starter in the 2001 rotation.
Chuck McElroy, middle reliever/starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.83 70 0 6 4 1 96 94 9 46 78 .257 .729
Prorated Bal 3.83 47 0 4 3 1 65 63 6 31 52 .257 .729
Actual Bal 4.69 43 2 3 0 0 63 60 6 34 50 .247 .744
McElroy was nothing special as a reliever this year, but the Orioles
were impressed by his last two appearances of the season -- beating Barry
Zito's Athletics and Andy Pettite's Yankees in his first two career starts.
The Orioles are so excited by the results (2-0, 0.82 ERA) that McElroy
is slated to be their 4th starter heading into spring training.
I give him credit for two excellent performances against two solid teams,
but I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he'll succeed as a starter.
Both of his opponents had predominantly left-handed hitting lineups and
losing records against left-handed starters. McElroy is historically better
against lefties and held them to a .204 average in 2000, so it appears
this was an ideal situation for him.
Nevertheless, McElroy has handled right-handed batters pretty well (.268
average, .394 slugging over the past five years), and if he can build
up his arm enough to handle a starter's workload, he could help fill out
a shaky rotation in 2001. Two great starts doesn't guarantee future success,
though, so the jury is still out on this move.
Luis Rivera, middle reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.45 40 0 3 4 0 55 53 7 28 66 .256 .763
Prorated Atl 4.45 5 0 0 0 0 6 6 1 3 8 .256 .763
Actual Atl 1.35 5 0 1 0 0 7 4 0 5 5 .190 .632
Prorated Bal 4.45 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 .256 .763
Actual Bal 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 .333 .833
Prorated Tot 4.45 5 0 0 1 0 7 7 1 4 9 .256 .763
Actual Tot 1.23 6 0 1 0 0 7 5 0 6 5 .208 .658
Baltimore acquired Rivera as a key player in the five-player deal that
sent Surhoff to Atlanta. He's young and throws an overpowering fastball
with a good changeup. While the Braves were grooming him as a starter,
his injury problems (blisters, back, and shoulder) and makeup (two-pitch
strikeout pitcher) suggest he may be more suited for the Oriole bullpen.
Alan Mills, middle reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.02 40 0 3 2 0 54 48 6 34 41 .240 .748
Prorated LA 4.02 20 0 1 1 0 27 24 3 17 20 .240 .748
Actual LA 4.21 18 0 2 1 1 26 31 3 16 18 .304 .874
Prorated Bal 4.02 19 0 1 1 0 26 23 3 16 20 .240 .748
Actual Bal 6.46 23 0 2 0 1 24 25 6 19 18 .263 .865
Prorated Tot 4.02 39 0 3 2 0 52 47 6 33 40 .240 .748
Actual Tot 5.29 41 0 4 1 2 49 56 9 35 36 .284 .870
In early 1999, Mills, a first-time National Leaguer, complained to his
teammates that the seams were lower on NL balls, thus affecting his slider
and hurting his shoulder when he tried to compensate. Perhaps LA was fed
up with his complaining in 2000 (or his .304 opponent average), leading
to his mid-June trade back to Baltimore for Al Reyes. The AL must have
changed to a tighter-wound ball when he was in Los Angeles because Baltimore's
foes pounded Mills for six bombs in only 23.2 innings. Then again, maybe
Mills has a point about the baseballs. Inflammation in his right shoulder
cut Mills' season short in August and he was scheduled to have off-season
arthroscopic surgery.
B.J. Ryan, middle reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.23 30 0 3 2 0 53 46 5 26 65 .235 .668
Prorated Bal 3.23 26 0 3 2 0 45 39 4 22 56 .235 .668
Actual Bal 5.91 42 0 2 3 0 43 36 7 31 41 .225 .755
Ryan is one of those players who has decent control in the minors but
then can't find the plate when he makes the big club. In his brief major
league career, he has walked batters twice as often than in the minors.
His big-league homerun rate is also twice as bad as in the minors, suggesting
he might be serving up some fat pitches in an attempt to throw a strike.
While Ryan's sidearm delivery gives left-handed batters an extremely difficult
time (.175 average), he walks them twice as often as righties. (Note to
all lefties in 2001: don't swing!) Ryan is young, so he will get a few
more chances, and his minor-league success suggests that he can be a force
in the future if he straightens out his control issues.
Buddy Groom, lefty specialist, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.93 53 0 2 2 0 37 40 3 14 25 .282 .742
Prorated Bal 3.93 87 0 3 3 0 60 65 5 23 41 .282 .742
Actual Bal 4.85 70 0 6 3 4 59 63 5 21 44 .275 .722
Groom is used to get one or two batters out at a time and is especially
effective against left-handed batters, holding them to a .193 batting
average with only 3 extra base hits. As usual, righties hit Groom hard,
batting 133 points points higher than lefties and hitting for extra bases
with 2 1/2 times the frequency. Facing only a couple batters at a time
allowed Groom to rack up 27 holds for the second straight year, good for
second-most in the league (led the league in 1999). If I'm Mike Hargrove,
I further limit Groom's role in 2001 so he faces fewer righties.
Mike Trombley, setup man, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.24 70 0 4 8 2 98 99 17 37 85 .265 .783
Prorated Bal 4.24 54 0 3 6 2 75 76 13 28 65 .265 .783
Actual Bal 4.13 75 0 4 5 4 72 67 15 38 72 .247 .807
Trombley's ugly May 13th performance against Boston was the low point
of his early-season troubles with the O's. He entered the 8th inning with
a 1-0 lead and a man on first and, in the span of 6 pitches, surrendered
back-to-back homers, hit a batter, then gave up another homerun before
getting the hook. When it was all said and done, Trombley earned his 4th
blown save and second loss without recording an out. At the break, he
had allowed 10 homeruns in only 31.2 innings but still managed to maintain
a respectable ERA due to a strong season-long performance with men in
scoring position (.172 opponent average).
Trombley solved his homer problem in the second half by throwing fewer
strikes, resulting in only 5 homeruns allowed in 40.1 innings, but his
walk rate increased 50%. Although he's coming into spring training as
Ryan Kohlmeier's setup man, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trombley close
several games in 2001.
Mike Timlin, closer, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.43 70 0 4 6 29 76 71 9 23 55 .250 .700
Prorated Bal 3.43 35 0 2 3 14 38 35 4 11 27 .250 .700
Actual Bal 4.89 37 0 2 3 11 35 37 6 15 26 .276 .803
Prorated StL 3.43 31 0 2 3 13 33 31 4 10 24 .250 .700
Actual StL 3.34 25 0 3 1 1 30 30 2 20 26 .265 .736
Prorated Tot 3.43 66 0 4 6 27 71 66 8 22 52 .250 .700
Actual Tot 4.18 62 0 5 4 12 65 67 8 35 52 .271 .773
In 1999, Baltimore signed Timlin to a four-year $16 million contract,
believing Oriole Park's grass surface would benefit the inconsistent sinker-baller.
If the Orioles had done their homework they would have found that over
the previous five years, Timlin was worse on grass (4-12, 4.25 ERA) than
turf (10-5, 2.76 ERA). Timlin was a mediocre closer for Baltimore, and
they dumped his contract on St. Louis where he will continue to setup
Dave Veres in 2001.
Ryan Kohlmeier, closer, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Bal 2.39 25 0 0 1 13 26 30 1 15 17 .291 .767
I present exhibit A in proving just how misleading a reliever's (especially
closers) ERA can be. Kohlmeier's stats are more consistent with an ERA
in the 4.95 range. He put 15.4 runners on base per 9 innings. How bad
is that? It's worse than the worst AL hurler (Pat Rapp) who pitched enough
to qualify for the ERA title.
Although opponents batted .291 against him, Kohlmeier kept his ERA low
and converted 13 of 14 save opportunities because he came up big with
men in scoring position (.194 AVG) and only allowed one homerun in his
26 innings. Time will tell if he's really a clutch performer or if he
was just lucky (as I suspect), but I wouldn't be surprised to see Kohlmeier
struggle in 2001.
Outlook
My message to Baltimore fans is simple: enjoy the Super Bowl because
the Orioles won't come close to a championship game for a long time.
Angelos waited too long to dismantle this aging team, instead trying
to patch it with more high-priced veterans, before finally deciding to
blow it up and start over in 2000. The club made several moves to get
younger and improve their defense -- inserting Luis Matos in center and
Hairston at second, shifting Anderson from center to right and Belle to
DH -- and the result was a team ERA that was almost a run per game lower
in the last two months than it was through July. So it appeared that Angelos
had finally learned his lesson.
But his moves over the last 3+ months have left me wondering. When he
wasn't able to sign any of this year's big name free agents, Angelos panicked
and overpaid for more veterans, giving 35-year-old Mike Bordick $9 million
over two years, 32-year-old Pat Hentgen $9.6 million over two years, and
34-year-old David Segui $28 million over four years.
The Segui signing was particularly confusing because they already have
Richard and Conine (who has better range than the overrated Segui) to
play first. If the Minnesota Twins had signed Segui to the same terms,
even Angelos would have to question the move. Why would a team with no
chance to win spend so much money on a second-tier free agent? But I guess
he can't admit that his team is now in the same boat as the Twins.
The only reason to watch this team last year was to see Mussina pitch,
but O's fans will now cringe at the sight of the Moose in Yankee pinstripes.
This huge blow to the franchise leaves the following 2001 rotation: Mercedes,
Ponson, Hentgen, McElroy, Johnson/Parrish/Spurgeon. Yikes! Kohlmeier will
close with Trombley setting up. Trombley will be available to move into
the closer role should Kohlmeier struggle.
Cal Ripken anchors the lineup in what could be his final season. If I'm
the manager, I deal with the first base logjam by platooning Segui and
Conine at first, playing Richard in right, and using a mix of Anderson,
Matos, and Kingsale in center.
In the short term, Baltimore's hitting, pitching, and win total will
continue to decline in 2001 and may finally hit the basement of the AL
East. As far as what the future may hold, I'd say this team is a new owner
away from being competitive again.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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