2000 Post-Season Review -- Boston Red Sox
By Tom Tippett
January 20, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Boston Red sox did in the 2000 season
relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used
in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our publication
schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 960 792
Runs allowed 805 745
Run Margin 155 47
Wins 94 85
Pythagorean wins 95 86
Placement 2nd 2nd
It's all because of Sports Illustrated! If only they hadn't predicted
that Boston would win the first World Series of the new century. If only
they hadn't put Pedro on the cover. The dreaded SI cover jinx doomed the
Red Sox even before the first pitch was thrown!
To be fair, it's hard to argue that the cover jinx had anything to do
with it. After all, that was Pedro on the cover, and he was even more
brilliant than he was in his two previous Cy Young seasons. But just about
everything else that could go wrong did go wrong.
Bret Saberhagen never made it back. Ramon Martinez, penciled in by many
Sox fans as a 15-game winner, had an ERA over six and averaged less than
five innings per start. Every regular but one spent time on the disabled
list and some played hurt for part of the season. The clubhouse that was
so peaceful in 1999 boiled over with anger on several occasions. When
the team was playing well in April, five consecutive games were rained
out, creating a brutal September schedule that was packed with doubleheaders.
Last spring, I went to great lengths to explain why Boston was projected
to finish second in the league in scoring despite having been ninth the
year before. I explained that Carl Everett would be much better than Darren
Lewis (he was), that Everett would probably get more atbats than he had
the year before (he did, but not by much), that replacing Damon Buford's
bat with almost anyone else would help (his replacement turned out to
be Darren Lewis, so it didn't help at all), and that the offense had been
a little inefficient in 1999 and would probably return to normal (it didn't).
The implicit assumption in that argument was that nothing else would
change. That the other guys in the lineup would continue to produce at
their established levels. And that's where things fell apart. A few players
were able to match what they had done the year before, but several others
had poor seasons and nobody produced an upside surprise. Even though the
pitching was terrific, the result was a frustrating year in which the
team played very well for two months, fell apart in June, and battled
back to give the Yankees a bit of a run before being eliminated on the
final weekend.
Key Position Players
With the notable exceptions of Nomar Garciaparra and Carl Everett, the
Red Sox were mired in a team-wide batting slump for much of the season.
What looked like one of the better lineups in the league wound up third
from the bottom in runs scored. As a group, they took their share of walks
but came up 25 homers and 18 singles short of the league average, and
that was enough to leave them with 65 fewer runs than the average team.
Some of it was the ballpark. Despite a reputation as a great park for
hitters, Fenway hasn't been a homerun haven for a long time. The left-field
wall produces a lot of doubles and boosts batting averages accordingly,
but it also turns some deep line drives into singles. A cool, damp spring
and summer also helped to keep a lid on offense. These factors combined
to produce a Fenway Park that was run-neutral and the league's second-toughest
place to hit homeruns.
Some of it was injury-related, as just about every regular was affected
in some fashion. John Valentin missed the whole season. Everett and Garciaparra
spent time on the disabled list. Jose Offerman and Jason Varitek played
with injuries that dragged them down. Troy O'Leary carried the weight
of some personal issues, and Trot Nixon was also hobbled for a while.
Only Brian Daubach was healthy for the whole season, and he had a down
year at the plate.
And some of it was the result of some very odd personnel decisions that
were made by some combination of GM Dan Duquette and manager Jimy Williams.
There are always a few players floating around the league who were good
at one time but who can't really get the job done any more. Age and injury
have eroded their skills, but because they had one or two good seasons
a while back, GMs of mediocre teams keep giving them more chances. Every
time one of these guys gets signed, I think to myself, "There's a
team that's not going anywhere."
If I had taken a few minutes last winter to draw up a list of these players,
it would have included Sean Berry, Ed Sprague, Bernard Gilkey, Gary Gaetti
(the player with the best career in this list, but also the oldest), and
Mike Lansing. All of them played for the Red Sox last year. None of them
played well. And the Sox went nowhere.
A year ago, Williams was Manager of the Year and Duquette was widely
praised for building a team that made the playoffs two years in a row
and gave the Yankees their toughest competition in recent memory. Yet
these two made the decision to give precious playing time to a bunch of
older guys who have either had no success or who have produced only in
short spurts in recent years. They also gave playing time to utility guys
like Andy Sheets, Darren Lewis and Manny Alexander ahead of some younger
players with more potential. And they traded for two players, Rico Brogna
and Dante Bichette, who are somewhat overrated as hitters.
Jason Varitek, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 475 123 34 1 19 69 72 3 45 2 86 1 2 .259 .323 .455 .778 68
Prorated Bos 462 120 33 1 18 67 70 3 44 2 84 1 2 .259 .323 .455 .778 66
Actual Bos 448 111 31 1 10 55 65 6 60 3 84 1 1 .248 .342 .388 .730 60
A very strong second half in 1999 (.299 average, .531 slugging) moved
Varitek into the top echelon of AL catchers -- a guy who could hit and
handle the league's leading pitching staff. A year later, Varitek continued
to play well behind the plate but saw a promising start get wiped out
by a dismal (.210 average, .333 slugging) second half. There were reports
that he was playing hurt for much of the season, so this may have been
a temporary setback. His improving walk rate augurs well for his continued
development as a hitter.
Scott Hatteberg, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 88 25 6 0 3 12 12 1 13 1 15 0 0 .284 .379 .455 .833 15
Prorated Bos 232 66 16 0 8 32 32 3 34 3 39 0 0 .284 .379 .455 .833 40
Actual Bos 230 61 15 0 8 21 36 0 38 3 39 0 1 .265 .367 .435 .801 37
Hatteberg is often mentioned in trade rumors because he provides a solid
left-handed bat, mixing on-base ability with a little power. It's a different
story on defense, however, as Hatteberg ranked dead last in the AL in
our catcher throwing rankings. There were a couple of part-time players
who threw out a lower percentage of enemy runners than Hatteberg's 19%,
but Hatteberg lagged behind everyone when both attempt rates and success
rates are considered. (In his defense, the Sox don't ask their pitchers
to work at holding runners.)
Brian Daubach, 1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 396 113 37 2 18 63 78 7 47 2 94 1 1 .285 .369 .525 .894 78
Prorated Bos 480 137 45 2 22 76 95 8 57 2 114 1 1 .285 .369 .525 .894 95
Actual Bos 495 123 32 2 21 55 76 6 44 2 130 1 1 .248 .315 .448 .764 72
A year ago, based on a very strong 1998 season in AAA, we projected that
Daubach would bat .266 with a nice .359 OBP and a slugging average of
.456. He surprised us and everyone else by hitting .294 and slugging .562
last year, and on that basis, he was projected for another very good season
in 2000. But his plate discipline deteriorated, and the extra strikeouts
ate into his batting average. Taken together, the two seasons are very
close to the major-league equivalent of that AAA campaign, so I'd be surprised
to see him return to the form he showed in 1999. If that's the case, he
won't hit well enough to be an asset at a hitter's position like 1B or
DH.
Mike Stanley, 1b/dh, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 552 148 29 0 26 80 89 11 84 4 119 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 99
Prorated Bos 184 49 10 0 9 27 30 4 28 1 40 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 33
Actual Bos 185 41 5 0 10 22 28 0 30 0 44 0 0 .222 .327 .411 .738 27
Prorated Oak 96 26 5 0 4 14 15 2 15 1 21 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 17
Actual Oak 97 26 7 0 4 11 18 1 14 0 21 0 0 .268 .363 .464 .827 17
Prorated Tot 280 75 15 0 13 41 45 6 43 2 60 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 50
Actual Tot 282 67 12 0 14 33 46 1 44 0 65 0 0 .238 .339 .429 .768 44
A consummate professional and team player, Stanley started out well but
slumped in June (.170, no homers) and lost the confidence of his manager.
He rode the bench for a while and then agreed to be placed on the DL with
a phantom injury to free up a roster spot. After the Sox released him
in July, he signed with Oakland and made a very solid contribution to
their stretch drive. He's a free agent and hasn't yet caught on with a
team for 2001. If this proves to be the end of the road for Stanley, he'll
leave with a very respectable .370 career on-base percentage in fifteen
seasons.
Rico Brogna, 1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 604 159 34 3 19 82 96 1 52 7 121 8 4 .263 .320 .424 .744 80
Prorated Phi 127 33 7 1 4 17 20 0 11 1 25 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 17
Actual Phi 129 32 14 0 1 12 13 2 7 1 28 1 0 .248 .295 .380 .675 14
Prorated Bos 55 14 3 0 2 7 9 0 5 1 11 1 0 .263 .320 .424 .744 7
Actual Bos 56 11 3 0 1 8 8 0 3 0 13 0 0 .196 .237 .304 .541 4
Prorated Tot 182 48 10 1 6 25 29 0 16 2 36 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 24
Actual Tot 185 43 17 0 2 20 21 2 10 1 41 1 0 .232 .278 .357 .635 18
Because Brogna drove in over 100 runs in both the 1998 and 1999 seasons,
some baseball people (including Dan Duquette) seem to regard Brogna as
a good hitter. But we're talking about a guy with a very low career on-base
percentage (.321), not much power, and mediocre batting averages. In other
words, he's a below-average hitter at a position where his bat is supposed
to be an asset.
Having said that, he's not as bad as he looked in 2000. He spent time
on the DL with a broken wrist (hit by a pitch) and never fully recovered.
Brogna, a New Englander, was disappointed when the Red Sox showed no interest
in re-signing him after the season. Instead, he'll spend 2001 as Atlanta's
new first baseman, replacing Andres Galarraga. He won't hit as well as
Galarraga, but he'll make up for some of that deficit with superior defense.
Jose Offerman, 2b/1b/dh, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 593 178 36 9 9 101 67 3 88 3 89 22 11 .300 .390 .437 .827 107
Prorated Bos 452 136 27 7 7 77 51 2 67 2 68 17 8 .300 .390 .437 .827 81
Actual Bos 451 115 14 3 9 73 41 1 70 0 70 0 8 .255 .354 .359 .713 59
It didn't take long to see that Offerman's mobility was nowhere near
what it was the year before. He tried to play with a knee problem that
affected every aspect of his game except his batting eye. His batting
average and power suffered, and he became a station-to-station runner
when he did manage to reach base. After stealing 45 bases only two years
ago, Offerman was 0-for-8. His defensive range suffered enough that Jimy
Williams was forced to use him at first base and DH for much of the season.
In short, Offerman didn't provide the things you need from a leadoff hitter.
Jeff Frye, 2b/rf/3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 68 20 4 0 1 9 8 0 6 0 7 2 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 9
Prorated Bos 248 73 15 0 4 33 29 0 22 0 25 7 4 .294 .347 .397 .744 34
Actual Bos 239 69 13 0 1 35 13 1 28 0 38 1 3 .289 .364 .356 .720 32
Prorated Col 89 26 5 0 1 12 10 0 8 0 9 3 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 12
Actual Col 87 31 6 0 0 14 3 1 8 0 16 4 0 .356 .412 .425 .838 16
Prorated Tot 336 99 20 0 5 45 40 0 30 0 35 10 5 .294 .347 .397 .744 46
Actual Tot 326 100 19 0 1 49 16 2 36 0 54 5 3 .307 .377 .374 .751 47
After missing all of 1998 and much of 1999 with knee problems, Frye was
healthy for a change. But there didn't seem to be any place for him to
play -- and he was making too much money to be a utility player -- so
it seemed likely that Frye would be traded before the season. But there
were no takers, and he ended up getting a lot of playing time when Offerman's
problems began. As always, Frye fielded his position well and got on base
at a respectable clip.
He was included in the trade that brought Rolando Arrojo and Mike Lansing
from Colorado. At first, it looked as if Frye might get a chance to start
with the Rockies, but they gave the job to Todd Walker instead, and Frye
was relegated to a utility role once again. He signed with Toronto for
2001, but they have several 2Bs under contract, so it's not clear how
much he'll play.
Mike Lansing, 2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 617 182 42 1 19 92 77 4 48 2 99 10 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 97
Prorated Col 364 107 25 1 11 54 45 2 28 1 58 6 1 .295 .348 .459 .807 57
Actual Col 365 94 14 6 11 62 47 0 31 1 49 8 2 .258 .315 .419 .734 46
Prorated Bos 135 40 9 0 4 20 17 1 10 0 22 2 0 .295 .348 .459 .807 21
Actual Bos 139 27 4 0 0 10 13 0 7 1 26 0 0 .194 .230 .223 .453 6
Prorated Tot 499 147 34 1 15 74 62 3 39 2 80 8 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 79
Actual Tot 504 121 18 6 11 72 60 0 38 2 75 8 2 .240 .292 .365 .657 50
Lansing didn't hit in two-plus seasons in Colorado's mountain air, so
it came as no surprise when he didn't hit at all at sea level. Never one
to take many walks, Lansing's claim to fame was one season in Montreal
(1997) when he smacked 45 doubles and 20 homers at age 29. It's been downhill
since then, and if it weren't for the fact that he's got another year
on a contract that pays him over $6 million a season, he might not have
a job this year. Don't be fooled by that projected .295 batting average;
in any other park but Coors Field, he would have been pegged for about
.260 with few walks and almost no power.
John Valentin, 3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 476 122 32 2 15 74 65 5 52 3 63 1 2 .256 .333 .426 .759 68
Prorated Bos 34 9 2 0 1 5 5 0 4 0 4 0 0 .256 .333 .426 .759 5
Actual Bos 35 9 1 0 2 6 2 0 2 0 5 0 1 .257 .297 .457 .754 4
Boston was hoping that Valentin would bounce back from a very poor 1999
season (.253, 12 homers), but his season never really got started. He
went on the DL with tendinitis in his knee on April 6th and stayed there
for six weeks. Less than two weeks after he was activated, his knee crumpled
as he tried to position himself for a routine ground ball, and he had
season-ending surgery to repair a ruptured tendon.
Like Lansing, Valentin is under contract for one more year at a healthy
$6 million, so he'll get another shot. But his performance was in steep
decline even before the injury, so there may be nothing left in the tank
at this point. Despite the big contract, the Sox aren't counting on Valentin
to make it all the way back. Chris Stynes, acquired from Cincinnati in
a recent trade, is penciled in as the starting 3B.
Wilton Veras, 3b, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 95 24 5 0 2 13 13 1 3 0 11 1 1 .253 .280 .368 .648 9
Prorated Bos 170 43 9 0 4 23 23 2 5 0 20 2 2 .253 .280 .368 .648 15
Actual Bos 164 40 7 1 0 21 14 2 7 0 20 0 0 .244 .278 .299 .577 14
Boston fans were very disappointed when Veras failed to produce after
Valentin went on the DL the first time. Veras had looked good -- both
at the plate and in the field -- in a six-week trial the year before,
and some folks thought he should start ahead of Valentin anyway. Peter
Gammons has said that he sees thirty-homer power and Gold Glove defense
in Veras's future.
But there was plenty of evidence to suggest that he wouldn't be a star
right away. That six-week trial was his only experience above AA ball,
and his minor-league record shows a high of 16 homers and a very low walk
rate. He's still young enough to develop on both counts, but he needs
some time to do that. Except for the goose egg in the homerun column,
Veras's performance was pretty much in line with what his minor-league
record said it would be.
Manny Alexander, 3b/ss/2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 78 20 4 1 1 10 8 0 5 0 17 2 0 .256 .301 .372 .673 9
Prorated Bos 194 50 10 2 2 25 20 0 12 0 42 5 0 .256 .301 .372 .673 22
Actual Bos 194 41 4 3 4 30 19 0 13 0 41 2 0 .211 .261 .325 .586 18
Once touted as the Orioles shortstop of the future and heir apparent
to Cal Ripken, Alexander has never been able to hit well enough to advance
beyond a utility infielder role. He won't hurt you defensively, but unless
he's a very late bloomer, he's never going to hit. He owns a career batting
average of .234 and a slugging average of .328.
Ed Sprague, 3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 67 16 3 0 3 9 9 2 6 0 13 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 9
Prorated SD 156 37 7 0 7 21 21 5 14 0 30 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 21
Actual SD 157 41 12 0 10 19 27 3 13 2 40 0 0 .261 .326 .529 .854 28
Prorated Bos 110 26 5 0 5 15 15 3 10 0 21 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 14
Actual Bos 111 24 4 0 2 11 9 0 12 0 18 0 0 .216 .293 .306 .599 10
Prorated Tot 266 64 12 0 12 36 36 8 24 0 52 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 35
Actual Tot 268 65 16 0 12 30 36 3 25 2 58 0 0 .243 .312 .437 .749 38
When Sprague clubbed 36 homers for the Blue Jays in 1996, it seems as
if he had established himself as one of the best 3Bs in the game. But
he crashed and burned the next season and hasn't come close to matching
that output since. In his eight years as a regular or semi-regular, he
has never batted .270 or slugged .500. He takes a decent number of walks,
but not enough to pull his low batting average (career .245) up to a respectable
on-base percentage (career .317). He doesn't run well and is a below-average
fielder.
Lou Merloni, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Bos 128 41 11 2 0 10 18 1 4 1 22 1 0 .320 .341 .438 .778 17
A local boy and Fenway favorite, Merloni spent most of last year in Japan
in the hope of picking up a nice paycheck and proving that he was ready
to be a starter somewhere in the big leagues. When that didn't work out,
Duquette was quick to sign him up and offer him to Jimy Williams as another
potential candidate to fill the void at 3B. Merloni turned out to be the
best of the bunch, contributing some key hits and showing good range in
the field. He makes too many errors to be a regular there, but he's shown
that he has value as a utility player.
Nomar Garciaparra, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 615 203 42 7 32 117 116 8 48 4 58 14 4 .330 .383 .577 .960 135
Prorated Bos 544 180 37 6 28 104 103 7 42 4 51 12 4 .330 .383 .577 .960 119
Actual Bos 529 197 51 3 21 104 96 2 61 20 50 5 2 .372 .434 .599 1.033 140
I feel privileged to live in the golden era of shortstops and to be able
to watch Nomar play so often. He won his second-consecutive batting title,
and although his homers were down this year, he made up for it in doubles
and would have knocked in a hundred runs if someone was getting on base
ahead of him. Garciaparra's walks were up because he was intentionally
passed more than anyone else in the league. He's battled some nagging
leg problems recently, so he didn't run as much and he's not making as
many plays in the field as did a couple of years ago, but he can still
flash the leather with the best of them on any given night.
Donnie Sadler, ss/cf/2b/3b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 95 23 4 1 1 14 7 1 8 0 18 3 1 .242 .305 .337 .642 10
Prorated Bos 99 24 4 1 1 15 7 1 8 0 19 3 1 .242 .305 .337 .642 11
Actual Bos 99 22 5 0 1 14 10 1 5 0 18 3 1 .222 .262 .303 .565 9
Another local favorite because his speed creates excitement on both offense
and defense, the Red Sox got tired of waiting for Sadler to hit and packaged
him in the post-season deal that brought Chris Stynes from the Reds. Good
deal for the Sox.
Troy O'Leary, lf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 572 163 35 6 26 86 92 4 51 4 91 1 1 .285 .345 .503 .849 96
Prorated Bos 510 145 31 5 23 77 82 4 46 4 81 1 1 .285 .345 .503 .849 86
Actual Bos 513 134 30 4 13 68 70 2 44 2 76 0 2 .261 .320 .411 .731 66
O'Leary had a terrible first half -- through June, his best month
was .222 with three homers. Then he spent two weeks on the DL to deal
with personal problems, rumored to be a messy divorce, and came back as
a new man. At least for a while. He batted over .300 in both July and
August before fading a little in September. Even that strong second half
fell below the level he'd established in recent years, so O'Leary seems
like the odd man out in an outfield that has to make room for Manny Ramirez.
O'Leary has been dangled in front of a few other teams, but nobody has
taken the bait.
Carl Everett, cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 568 179 40 4 26 101 114 9 58 4 105 23 11 .315 .384 .537 .921 119
Prorated Bos 496 156 35 3 23 88 99 8 51 3 92 20 10 .315 .384 .537 .921 103
Actual Bos 496 149 32 4 34 82 108 8 52 5 113 11 4 .300 .373 .587 .959 112
Can you say 'volatility'? Everett's season was marred by several run-ins
with umpires, teammates, his manager, and the media, so there was talk
that he might be traded after the season for the sake of clubhouse harmony.
But there's no denying that Everett carried this team for three months
last year -- .329 with 24 homers and 69 RBI through the break -- and the
Sox anemic offense would have been totally pathetic without him. By all
accounts, Carl and Jimy made up last month, so Boston goes into 2001 boasting
of the best 3-4-5 punch in baseball with Nomar, Ramirez, and Everett.
Darren Lewis, cf/rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 207 52 7 2 2 30 20 2 23 0 27 8 4 .251 .329 .333 .662 24
Prorated Bos 265 66 9 3 3 38 26 3 29 0 35 10 5 .251 .329 .333 .662 31
Actual Bos 270 65 12 0 2 44 17 3 22 0 34 10 5 .241 .305 .307 .612 27
Projected for a limited role -- mainly platooning with Nixon -- Lewis
wound up playing a bit more because all of the starting outfielders missed
time for various reasons, and he would have played even more had he not
encountered hamstring problems of his own. Lewis does everything well
except hit.
Trot Nixon, rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 412 111 22 5 14 70 54 3 51 2 71 9 3 .269 .350 .449 .799 67
Prorated Bos 436 118 23 5 15 74 57 3 54 2 75 10 3 .269 .350 .449 .799 71
Actual Bos 427 118 27 8 12 66 60 2 63 2 85 8 1 .276 .368 .461 .830 76
Nixon is beginning to realize the potential that Sox fans have been waiting
for since he was drafted in the first round in 1993. Although his offensive
stats are only in the middle of the pack among starting right fielders,
he provides excellent defense in right field and an aggressiveness that
appeals to fans and management alike. It's no wonder that other teams
have expressed more interest in Nixon than O'Leary in recent trade talks,
and that the Sox have been unwilling to let Nixon get away. Although his
stats for 1999 and 2000 were almost identical, Nixon had more success
against lefties (.371 OBP) this time around, and might be ready to break
out of a strict platoon role.
Israel Alcantara, rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 69 17 4 0 4 10 14 1 5 0 17 0 0 .246 .307 .478 .785 10
Prorated Bos 44 11 3 0 3 6 9 1 3 0 11 0 0 .246 .307 .478 .785 6
Actual Bos 45 13 1 0 4 9 7 0 3 0 7 0 0 .289 .333 .578 .911 9
I'd love to hear Jimy Williams' side of this story some day. With the
Sox struggling mightily to score runs, they promoted Alcantara -- who
owns a slugging percentage near .600 in his last four minor-league seasons
-- to provide a much-needed bat. And Izzy was producing at the plate until
he was benched after a very poor game against the White Sox, a game in
which he was either completely bewildered or just plain loafing in the
field and on the bases. So Williams chose to go with other players who
play the game the right way even if they can't hold a candle to
Alcantara at the plate.
That decision rankled Dan Duquette, who felt that Alcantara could help
the team and wasn't shy about saying so publicly. Those statements, and
some differences of opinion about how to handle Everett's outbursts, led
to speculation that Williams and Duquette might part ways at the end of
the year. Williams and Duquette appear to have reached some sort of agreement
that will allow them to coexist. But Alcantara won't be an issue between
them this year. He was released in December.
Bernard Gilkey, rf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 209 54 12 0 6 30 31 2 28 1 43 3 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 30
Prorated Ari 70 18 4 0 2 10 10 1 9 0 14 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 10
Actual Ari 73 8 1 0 2 6 6 0 7 2 16 0 0 .110 .185 .205 .391 2
Prorated Bos 89 23 5 0 3 13 13 1 12 0 18 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 13
Actual Bos 91 21 5 1 1 11 9 3 10 0 12 0 0 .231 .327 .341 .668 10
Prorated Tot 159 41 9 0 5 23 24 2 21 1 33 2 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 23
Actual Tot 164 29 6 1 3 17 15 3 17 2 28 0 0 .177 .265 .280 .545 11
One of the guys who played -- and didn't produce -- when Alcantara was
sitting. The last time Gilkey had a good full season was in 1996 with
the Mets. He put up good numbers in 204 atbats as a platoon player in
1999, and maybe that's what convinced Duquette that Gilkey might still
have some value, but I would have thought that Gilkey's 8-for-73 start
might have made them pause just a little. Gilkey has since moved on to
St. Louis, where he'll try to win a spot as a reserve outfielder.
Gary Gaetti, dh, age 41
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 218 52 12 0 8 26 34 3 19 1 35 0 1 .239 .306 .404 .709 26
Prorated Bos 10 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .239 .306 .404 .709 1
Actual Bos 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Gaetti had a terrible 1999 season with the Cubs, so I was very surprised
when he was invited to spring training with the Sox and shocked when we
made the team. He's not the first player who wanted to give it one last
shot before deciding that it was time to hang it up, and I can't blame
him for that. But he quickly reached the conclusion that it was time,
and he announced his retirement ten days into the season.
Gaetti's career spanned 20 seasons and featured two World Series championships,
360 homers and several years of Gold Glove defense while he was in his
prime. I don't think he's a Hall of Famer -- his career average of .255
and on-base percentage of .308 are too low -- but there's no question
that he was a very good player who added a lot to the game.
Dante Bichette, dh, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 563 146 35 1 18 75 94 2 42 2 83 6 4 .259 .310 .421 .731 71
Prorated Cin 472 122 29 1 15 63 79 2 35 2 70 5 3 .259 .310 .421 .731 59
Actual Cin 461 136 27 2 16 67 76 4 41 3 69 5 2 .295 .353 .466 .819 73
Prorated Bos 112 29 7 0 4 15 19 0 8 0 17 1 1 .259 .310 .421 .731 14
Actual Bos 114 33 5 0 7 13 14 0 8 0 22 0 0 .289 .336 .518 .854 19
Prorated Tot 584 151 36 1 19 78 98 2 44 2 86 6 4 .259 .310 .421 .731 74
Actual Tot 575 169 32 2 23 80 90 4 49 3 91 5 2 .294 .350 .477 .826 92
Although his slugging percentage was down 64 points from the year before,
Bichette held onto more of his Coors-inflated offensive value that I thought
he would. He played RF in Cincinnati, but he's been a liability in the
outfield for a while, and the Sox see him strictly as a DH at this point.
Morgan Burkhart, dh, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Bos 73 21 3 0 4 16 18 4 17 1 25 0 0 .288 .442 .493 .935 18
Burkhart is an intriguing player. He was downright Ruthian in four years
of independent league play that was capped off with a 1998 season in which
he batted .404 with a .557 (!) on-base percentage and 36 homers in 280
atbats. After being named the MVP of the Mexican league a couple of years
ago, Duquette signed him to a minor-league deal. His power diminished,
but he continued to show very good strike-zone awareness in the minor
leagues.
Burkhart burst on the scene with two hits in each of his first four games
before adding four more hits in games seven and eight. Nobody could be
expected to maintain a pace like that, and when he began to cool off,
he was sent back to Pawtucket. I'm not sure why they didn't just leave
him in the lineup. Why trade for a guy like Bichette when you already
have the much cheaper Burkhart on your payroll?
Key Pitchers
For the second year in a row, the Red Sox led the AL in pitching, and
it would be easy to make the mistake of concluding that it was all because
of Pedro. That's the biggest part of the story, but it's not the whole
story.
The Red Sox allowed 110 fewer earned runs than the average American League
team. Pedro, amazingly enough, is responsible for 85 of them. The rest
of the starters had a combined 5.35 ERA, which was about a quarter of
a run worse than the league average for starting pitchers. But the bullpen
also led the league in relief ERA, so a good chunk of the credit should
also go to Derek Lowe, Rich Garces, Hipolito Pichardo, Rheal Cormier,
and Rod Beck, who repeatedly came to the rescue of a starting rotation
that (after Pedro) often failed to get out of the fourth inning.
Pedro Martinez, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 2.68 32 32 18 6 0 225 175 19 58 269 .214 .602
Prorated Bos 2.68 29 29 16 5 0 205 160 17 53 245 .214 .602
Actual Bos 1.74 29 29 18 6 0 217 128 17 32 284 .167 .473
Pedro's 1999 season was one the best in baseball history, and he was
even better last year. His ERA was 3.17 runs (65%) below the league average,
and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved to 8.9:1. Among ERA qualifiers,
nobody has ever held opposing hitters to a lower batting average, and
Pedro did it in a DH league. In his 217 innings, Pedro allowed 85 fewer
runs than the league average pitcher. It's almost impossible for one player
to have that much value to a team. Needless to say, this was enough to
win his third Cy Young award.
Ramon Martinez, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.46 32 32 10 10 0 176 166 23 88 142 .251 .767
Prorated Bos 4.46 25 25 8 8 0 135 128 18 68 109 .251 .767
Actual Bos 6.13 27 27 10 8 0 128 143 16 67 89 .283 .832
Even though he missed most of 1999 (rotator cuff surgery), Sox fans had
high hopes for Pedro's big brother after Ramon came up big down the stretch
and in the post-season the year before. But Martinez had all kinds of
trouble getting out of the first inning. Even though he often settled
down and pitched pretty well, the effort expended in the first inning
usually caught up with him, and he ended the year with baseball's lowest
average innings per start (4.7). Boston chose not to exercise their $8
million option to bring him back in 2001, and Ramon signed with the Dodgers
for 2001.
Pete Schourek, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.79 32 32 8 13 0 171 191 30 73 119 .283 .859
Prorated Bos 5.79 19 19 5 8 0 103 115 18 44 72 .283 .859
Actual Bos 5.11 21 21 3 10 0 107 116 17 38 63 .278 .798
Schourek pitched well in spring training for the Pirates, but he was
released when Pittsburgh chose to go with the younger Jimmy Anderson as
their fifth starter. Boston snapped him up right away and Schourek responded
with a gutty performance that Sox fans will remember for a while. He pitched
quite well for three months -- his ERA was under 4.00 at the end of June,
but a lack of run support cost him a few wins -- before shoulder and elbow
woes led to four awful starts in July. It became clear that surgery was
called for, but Schourek opted to put it off until after the season, and
battled back to make two painful starts in September. The Sox signed him
to a minor-league contract for 2001, and he should be in the mix for #5
starter or a lefty setup role.
Jeff Fassero, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.50 32 32 10 12 0 187 214 30 74 135 .289 .833
Prorated Bos 5.50 22 22 7 8 0 129 148 21 51 94 .289 .833
Actual Bos 4.78 38 23 8 8 0 130 153 16 50 97 .296 .809
Fassero's days as a starting pitcher may be over. Although his 5.07 ERA
as a starter was near the league average and was much better than his
horrendous 1999 performance, he averaged less than five innings per start
and put 187 runners on base in 113 innings. He was more effective as a
reliever late in the season, and the Sox liked his chances to be a good
lefty setup man for a few seasons. But the Cubs wanted him more, and they
signed Fassero to a two-year $5.1 million deal in December.
Brian Rose, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.73 11 11 3 4 0 60 69 11 19 34 .290 .844
Prorated Bos 5.73 10 10 3 4 0 54 62 10 17 31 .290 .844
Actual Bos 6.11 15 12 3 5 0 53 58 11 21 24 .274 .863
Prorated Col 5.73 12 12 3 4 0 66 77 12 21 38 .290 .844
Actual Col 5.51 12 12 4 5 0 64 72 10 30 40 .282 .809
Prorated Tot 5.73 22 22 6 8 0 120 139 22 38 69 .290 .844
Actual Tot 5.79 27 24 7 10 0 117 130 21 51 64 .278 .834
In the three years since Rose blossomed with a stellar AAA season (17-5,
3.02 ERA in a good park for hitters) as a 21-year-old, he failed to deliver
on that promise with the big club. Boston ran out of patience and dealt
him to Colorado in the Arrojo trade. Rose had a little more success in
Colorado, but it remains to be seen whether his skills -- control, poise,
knowing how to pitch -- can make up for a lack of overpowering stuff.
Bret Saberhagen, starter, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.39 16 16 5 5 0 84 90 10 16 52 .274 .749
Saberhagen had surgery in November, 1999, to repair a tear in his rotator
cuff and was scheduled to miss at least the first half of the 2000 season.
He tried to come back too fast, suffered a series of little setbacks,
and wound up missing the entire season. Bret is taking it more slowly
this time, and if he's able to come back, he'll give the Sox rotation
a big boost.
Rolando Arrojo, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.15 32 32 8 14 0 183 222 29 74 151 .303 .877
Prorated Col 6.15 18 18 5 8 0 103 125 16 42 85 .303 .877
Actual Col 6.04 19 19 5 9 0 101 120 14 46 80 .299 .874
Prorated Bos 6.15 12 12 3 5 0 66 80 10 27 55 .303 .877
Actual Bos 5.05 13 13 5 2 0 71 67 10 22 44 .245 .730
Prorated Tot 6.15 30 30 7 13 0 170 206 27 69 140 .303 .877
Actual Tot 5.63 32 32 10 11 0 173 187 24 68 124 .277 .816
Even though his ERA was over 5.00 with the Sox, Arrojo gave the team
a shot in the arm when he arrived from Colorado. Before the trade, Arrojo's
ERA was 7.86 in games played at Coors and 4.94 on the road. So even if
you factor out those Coors-inflated starts, there's no reason to believe
that Arrojo will suddenly become more than a #4 or #5 starter.
Tomo Ohka, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.71 13 0 1 1 0 17 22 3 6 13 .314 .892
Prorated Bos 5.71 50 0 4 4 0 66 84 11 23 50 .314 .892
Actual Bos 3.12 13 12 3 6 0 69 70 7 26 40 .263 .741
Another Red Sox starter whose win-loss record was destroyed by horrible
run support (2.99 runs per game), Ohka was much better than his record
but not as good as his ERA suggests. The hits, walks and homers he allowed
are more consistent with an ERA in the 4.25 range. He gave the team some
quality innings at a time when other rotation starters were getting yanked
early, and he figures to be in the rotation this year even though the
team loaded up on veteran starters in recent months. Ohka has nothing
more to prove in the minors -- he's 24-6 with a 2.26 ERA in 43 starts
at AA and AAA in the past two years -- so it's time to hand him the ball
every five days and see what he can do.
Paxton Crawford, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 7.02 3 3 1 1 0 17 21 3 8 10 .313 .927
Prorated Bos 7.02 5 5 2 2 0 26 33 5 13 16 .313 .927
Actual Bos 3.41 7 4 2 1 0 29 25 0 13 17 .240 .594
Crawford posted an ERA in the fours at AA Trenton in both 1998 and 1999,
so he didn't project to do well at the major-league level this year. But
he got off to a good start in Trenton this year -- a 3.10 ERA and a very
attractive ratio of 6 walks to 54 strikeouts -- and earned a promotion
to AAA and then to the Sox. After one mediocre start against the White
Sox and a very impressive outing versus the Twins, the Sox sent him down
for a few days so he could stay sharp during the all-star break. Before
they could call him back, he cut himself on a broken glass in a hotel
room accident, and didn't make it back to the big leagues until September.
Combining his stats from AA, AAA and the majors, Crawford's 2000 season
looks like this:
11-8, 142.2 INN, 122 H, 41 BB, 118 K, 3.78 ERA
Not too shabby, especially for someone who didn't turn 23 until August.
Tim Wakefield, middle reliever/starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.15 34 4 4 5 0 73 78 11 34 51 .273 .816
Prorated Bos 5.15 73 9 9 11 0 157 167 24 73 109 .273 .816
Actual Bos 5.48 51 17 6 10 0 159 170 31 65 102 .272 .822
It's getting to the point where Wakefield's versatility is becoming less
of an asset to the team. It's nice to have someone who can soak up innings,
pitch on short rest, and move regularly from one role to another. But
this knuckleballer was a below-average pitcher as both a starter and reliever
in 2000, and it's been five years since his last really good season.
Sometimes Williams seems to act as if Wakefield is a robot who never
tires and can be reprogrammed on a moment's notice. And Wake is often
the guy who's asked to take one for the team. It may be time for the Sox
to find out whether he can be more successful if he's left in one role
for a full season.
Bryce Florie, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.67 30 0 3 3 0 62 69 6 25 45 .288 .783
Prorated Bos 4.67 25 0 2 2 0 51 57 5 21 37 .288 .783
Actual Bos 4.56 29 0 0 4 1 49 57 5 19 34 .295 .807
Florie's season was book-ended by a pair of injuries. A week into April,
he pulled a groin and wound up on the disabled list for ten weeks. He
returned to give the Sox a solid performance in long relief, before seeing
his season, and perhaps his career, end when his eye socket was crushed
by a vicious line drive. As Florie sat bleeding on the mound that night,
the Fenway faithful fell silent, perhaps recalling the the beaning that
shortened Tony Conigliaro's career some thirty years earlier.
The doctors were able to repair the bones around the eye, and the blood
that clotted in the retina has mostly disappeared. Although his vision
isn't 100%, it has improved enough to enable him to make plans to attend
spring training. Even if he doesn't pitch again, it appears he'll be able
to lead a normal life. That's very good news.
Hipolito Pichardo, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.91 4 4 1 1 0 22 24 2 8 12 .282 .759
Prorated Bos 4.91 11 11 3 3 0 63 69 6 23 34 .282 .759
Actual Bos 3.46 38 1 6 3 1 65 63 1 26 37 .260 .659
Pichardo's career began in 1992 with a very promising season (9-6, 3.95)
as a starting pitcher with Kansas City. He was shifted to the bullpen
two years later and has battled a series of injuries since then. The most
recent was a sprained elbow ligament that cost him the last six weeks
of the 1998 season and all of 1999.
Despite the history of elbow problems, the Sox worked him very hard after
he was called up in late May -- 61 of those 65 innings were crammed into
three months plus a week -- and a forearm strain limited him to only a
few innings in September. He was a major reason why the Sox led the league
in staff ERA despite having several starters who were unable to pitch
into the sixth inning on a regular basis.
John Wasdin, reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 3.89 40 0 4 3 0 72 70 11 22 49 .256 .752
Prorated Bos 3.89 26 0 3 2 0 47 46 7 15 32 .256 .752
Actual Bos 5.04 25 1 1 3 1 45 48 8 15 36 .273 .828
Prorated Col 3.89 21 0 2 2 0 37 36 6 11 25 .256 .752
Actual Col 5.80 14 3 0 3 0 36 42 6 9 35 .302 .842
Prorated Tot 3.89 47 0 5 4 0 84 82 13 26 57 .256 .752
Actual Tot 5.38 39 4 1 6 1 80 90 14 24 71 .286 .834
Oh, those homeruns. Wasdin could be a pretty good pitcher if he could
only keep the ball in the yard. The Red Sox gave him several chances as
a starter and reliever, but they finally ran out of patience and packaged
him with Brian Rose in the Arrojo deal. I'm not sure why a team that plays
in Coors Field would want a guy who's prone to give up the long ball,
but he had some good starts with the Rockies, and maybe the change of
scenery will do some good.
Rich Garces, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 3.16 70 0 6 3 3 100 82 11 48 78 .225 .690
Prorated Bos 3.16 52 0 4 2 2 73 60 8 35 57 .225 .690
Actual Bos 3.25 64 0 8 1 1 75 64 7 23 69 .229 .643
A fan favorite, Garces has done some excellent work despite owning a
body type that seems more suited for duty as an offensive lineman. After
bouncing between AAA and the majors for several seasons, Garces has been
with the Sox full time since July, 1999. In that season and a half, he
has allowed only 89 hits in 115 innings while striking out 112 and compiling
a very impressive 13-2 record and a 2.65 ERA.
Rheal Cormier, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 3.73 70 0 6 4 1 99 99 9 30 56 .263 .729
Prorated Bos 3.73 49 0 4 3 1 69 69 6 21 39 .263 .729
Actual Bos 4.61 64 0 3 3 0 68 74 7 17 43 .275 .725
The Sox didn't try very hard to keep this free agent who had been such
a valuable left-handed reliever for the past two seasons, and the press
attributed this to Cormier's "poor" second half. I'm not sure
whether the press made this evaluation or whether they were simply reporting
what the Sox management had concluded. At the time, I saw that his ERA
after the break was 5.52, so I thought they were probably right.
But let's take a closer look at his performance before and after the
all-star break:
INN H HR BB K
Before 39.0 45 7 8 22
After 29.1 29 0 9 21
Interesting, isn't it? Doesn't it look to you like he was a better
pitcher in the second half? If you look at whole picture, not just the
ERA, you see a durable lefty reliever who had a season right in line with
past performance and who gets lefties out (.304 OBP, .345 slugging). I
would have tried to sign this guy, but the Sox let him get away, and the
Phillies inked him to a three-year $8.75 million deal.
Sang-Hoon Lee, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.67 53 0 4 4 0 71 79 9 31 50 .283 .809
Prorated Bos 4.67 8 0 1 1 0 11 12 1 5 8 .283 .809
Actual Bos 3.09 9 0 0 0 0 12 11 2 5 6 .262 .752
One of several Asian pitchers that Dan Duquette has signed, this Korean
enters 2001 as the leading candidate to be the Sox lefty setup man. Last
March, it seemed as if he would play a significant role with the big club,
but he spent almost the entire year in Pawtucket instead. He had no trouble
with AAA hitters -- 5-2, 2.03 ERA, 51 hits in 71 innings, 24 walks and
73 strikeouts -- and he pitched pretty well with the Sox in September,
so he appears to be ready.
Jesus Pena, reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChA 4.86 19 0 1 1 0 17 18 3 11 15 .281 .850
Prorated ChA 4.86 27 0 1 1 0 24 26 4 16 22 .281 .850
Actual ChA 5.40 20 0 2 1 1 23 25 6 16 19 .278 .896
Prorated Bos 4.86 4 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 2 3 .281 .850
Actual Bos 3.00 2 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 3 1 .273 1.065
Prorated Tot 4.86 31 0 2 2 0 27 29 5 18 24 .281 .850
Actual Tot 5.13 22 0 2 1 1 26 28 7 19 20 .277 .915
Pena has walked 42 men in 46.2 innings at the big-league level. That's
a surprise, because he compiled a strong minor-league record in which
his control has only occasionally been a problem. Because the Sox are
short of lefties going into this season, Pena is in the mix for a bullpen
job.
Rod Beck, reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 4.54 53 0 3 7 0 73 82 9 22 54 .284 .792
Prorated Bos 4.54 28 0 2 4 0 39 44 5 12 29 .284 .792
Actual Bos 3.10 34 0 3 0 0 41 34 2 12 35 .222 .595
This high-priced former closer spent the first ten weeks of the season
on the disabled list with a pinched nerve in his neck. By the time he
was activated, Derek Lowe had a firm grip on the closer role, so Beck
was slotted in as a setup man. He was very successful in that role, keeping
his ERA under two through August 27th. September was less kind. Beck's
ERA soared to 5.40 in a month when a pile of double-headers put a strain
on the entire staff. Even with the expanded rosters, Beck made 15 appearances
that month, after making only 20 in the eleven weeks prior to that. If
he's healthy and his workload is kept under control, Beck should continue
to be a valuable setup man and backup closer.
Derek Lowe, closer, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 3.08 70 0 5 2 33 76 72 6 24 50 .254 .700
Prorated Bos 3.08 84 0 6 2 40 91 87 7 29 60 .254 .700
Actual Bos 2.56 74 0 4 4 42 91 90 6 22 79 .257 .684
In his first full season as Boston's closer, Lowe tied for the league
lead in saves and led the majors in innings pitched by a closer. On seven
occasions, most of them in the early part of the year, Williams brought
Lowe in to pitch the eighth and ninth innings, reminding some of the good
old days when closers like Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage and Bruce
Sutter got their saves the old-fashioned way -- they earned them.
An extreme ground ball pitcher, Lowe gets most of his work done with a
good fastball and a hard sinker.
Outlook
Pedro Martinez. Nomar Garciaparra. Manny Ramirez. Carl Everett. Derek
Lowe. Five reasons why Boston fans are very optimistic going into the
2001 season. That optimism is tempered by the team's disappointing performance
last season and 82 years of waiting for next year. But how many other
teams have a better nucleus to build around?
The Yankees have more pitching. To be precise, with the addition of Mike
Mussina. the Yankees have a lot more starting pitching . In an attempt
to narrow that advantage, Duquette has assembled a cast of thousands --
Arrojo, Hideo Nomo, Frank Castillo, Ohka, Crawford, Wakefield, Schourek,
David Cone, Saberhagen, Kent Mercker, and prospect Sunny Kim -- to audition
for the supporting roles behind Pedro, and if they can find four or five
decent starters out of this group, the staff should continue to be among
the league leaders. Assuming Pedro stays healthy and the bullpen continues
to be a strength, that is.
But the Sox should score a lot more runs. The signing of Manny Ramirez,
who may be baseball's best all-around hitter, should jump start the offense.
There's no way one hitter can be expected to add the 100-150 runs this
team needs to be considered a top contender for the World Series, but
odds are he'll get some help. Chris Stynes brings a potent bat to a position
(third base) where the Sox got almost nothing a year ago. Nixon should
continue to improve. Varitek and Offerman can be expected to bounce back.
And Darren Lewis probably won't use up as many atbats.
If things go well in spring training, the team could easily find themselves
in a position to trade (offering Valentin, O'Leary, Hatteberg, and some
of the extra starting pitchers) for whatever they feel is needed to round
out the team. If the core group stays reasonably healthy, they'll be better
than they were a year ago, and they could be a serious threat in the post
season.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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