2000 Post-Season Review -- Chicago Cubs
By Stuart Shea
January 22, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Chicago Cubs did in the 2000 season
relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used
in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our publication
schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 820 764
Runs allowed 865 904
Run Margin -45 -140
Wins 77 65
Pythagorean wins 77 67
Placement 5th 6th
In all areas, the 2000 Cubs failed to meet even the low expectations
that their talent engendered. Their offense was far less productive than
expected, and their pitching was even worse than the poor performance
one could have anticipated.
The 2000 season turned out to be a rare tough year to hit in Wrigley
Field, but the Cubs were a below-par offensive team on the road as well.
The Chicago offense was stuffed with high-profile players who showed weaknesses
nearly as significant as their strengths. Only Sammy Sosa excelled both
in power and on-base ability, and even he engendered a ton of criticism
because of his contract negotiation machinations and all-too-frequent
mental mistakes. Chicago pitchers allowed more home runs and had a worse
ERA than any NL club but Houston – despite playing in a park that was,
atypically, very hard in which to score runs.
Key Position Players
At several critical spots (catcher, first base, third base, left field,
center field) Chicago rated well below average in productivity. In fact,
only in right field and shortstop, where Ricky Gutierrez hit unexpectedly
well, could the Cubs have been considered to even be league average.
The players who got on base, like Eric Young and Mark Grace, either didn’t
do it well enough to rise above the pack or else had few other skills.
The power hitters, such as Henry Rodriguez, Damon Buford, and the committee
of has-beens and never-weres who manned third base, didn’t have high on-base
percentages and clogged up the basepaths. Some players, such as Joe Girardi,
had acceptable batting averages that concealed a lack of any other offensive
skills.
Manager Don Baylor had his players lay down more sacrifice bunts than
any other NL team. These one-run strategies didn’t really suit the club’s
talent or ballpark, but what could he do? The club didn’t get on base
enough, hit for enough power, or make good enough contact. Cubs fans were
treated to the painful sight of a Wrigley Field ballclub scratching and
clawing to score three runs a contest.
Joe Girardi, c, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 187 48 10 2 2 22 24 1 12 0 25 2 1 .257 .303 .364 .667 19
Prorated ChN 369 95 20 4 4 43 47 2 24 0 49 4 2 .257 .303 .364 .667 37
Actual ChN 363 101 15 1 6 47 40 3 32 3 61 1 0 .278 .339 .375 .714 46
Due to a good defensive reputation and a dearth of other candidates,
Girardi served as the Cubs' everyday catcher in 2000. Despite dropping
to a sad .202 against LHP (in 114 at-bats), Girardi did about as well
as could have been expected overall. However he sagged in the second half
after a beaning and, even while hitting .278, provided little offense.
Defensively, he continues to throw reasonably well and can lead a pitching
staff. While his days as an everyday catcher are almost certainly over
--Todd Hundley's attitude and shoulder being the X factor here -- Girardi
can hang around as long as he wants because of his attitude, knowledge,
and hustle.
Jeff Reed, c, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 350 89 20 1 9 46 44 3 55 3 80 1 1 .254 .358 .394 .752 52
Prorated ChN 235 60 13 1 6 31 30 2 37 2 54 1 1 .254 .358 .394 .752 35
Actual ChN 229 49 10 0 4 26 25 1 44 2 68 0 1 .214 .342 .310 .652 27
Following a surprisingly good 1999 campaign, Reed re-upped with the Cubs
-- and fell on his face. His bat appeared to crumble overnight, and he
didn't play well enough behind the dish to make up for it. The only thing
the former #1 draft pick can do anymore at the plate is draw walks, and
his lack of speed means that he just clogs the bases. Reed will be in
camp with the Astros this year.
Mike Mahoney, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual ChN 7 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 .286 .444 .429 .873 2
Mahoney is a veteran catch-and-throw guy from the Atlanta organization
who got a surprise chance at big-league action in 2000. There are plenty
of guys at Triple-A with his skills, meaning that this could have been
Mahoney's only chance at real meal money.
Mark Grace, 1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 575 169 36 3 15 93 83 2 80 4 51 2 3 .294 .377 .445 .823 99
Prorated ChN 537 158 34 3 14 87 78 2 75 4 48 2 3 .294 .377 .445 .823 92
Actual ChN 510 143 41 1 11 75 82 6 95 11 28 1 2 .280 .394 .429 .824 95
In his final season wearing Cubs pinstripes, Grace did some things right
and some things not so well. On the positive side: excellent overall hitting
skills, a career-high 95 walks (compared to a measly 28 strikeouts), 41
doubles, and a .394 on-base percentage. The popular Grace also fielded
well at first although he is no longer as quick around the bag as he once
was. On the negative side: a lack of speed -- not a new thing for him
-- and, far more seriously, a lack of punch. Grace hit just three homers
at Wrigley Field all season, and Cubs first basemen produced fewer home
runs (15) than any others in the NL.
Grace has signed for two years with Arizona, where he has a better chance
to get a World Series ring before retiring, as the Cubs move to the future,
where Hee Seop Choi awaits. Once he reaches the majors, which may happen
later in 2001, Choi is a good bet to hit more than 15 homers per season.
Dave Martinez, 1b/of, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 143 40 6 1 3 21 16 1 16 1 21 3 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 21
Actual Tam 104 27 4 2 1 12 12 0 10 1 17 1 4 .260 .319 .365 .684 12
Prorated ChN 49 14 2 0 1 7 5 0 5 0 7 1 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 7
Actual ChN 54 10 1 1 0 5 1 0 2 0 8 1 0 .185 .214 .241 .455 3
Prorated Tex 118 33 5 1 2 17 13 1 13 1 17 2 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 17
Actual Tex 119 32 4 1 2 14 12 1 14 2 20 2 1 .269 .351 .370 .720 14
Prorated Tor 181 51 8 1 4 27 20 1 20 1 27 4 3 .280 .354 .399 .753 26
Actual Tor 180 56 10 1 2 29 22 1 24 0 28 4 2 .311 .393 .411 .804 31
Prorated Tot 450 126 19 3 9 66 50 3 50 3 66 9 6 .280 .354 .399 .753 66
Actual Tot 457 125 19 5 5 60 47 2 50 3 73 8 7 .274 .346 .370 .716 58
Peripatetic was the word for Martinez in 2000. He began the season in
Tampa Bay, was dealt in May to the Cubs, then went to Texas in June and
Toronto in August. Despite playing very poorly in Chicago, he fashioned
another solid overall season. Of course, there is no reason for a .280-hitting
35-year-old with little power or speed to get 450 at-bats, but that says
more about the Rays, the Cubs, and the Rangers than it does about Martinez.
Martinez is a valuable player if used correctly: he hangs in against lefties,
will draw an occasional walk, and doesn't embarrass his club in the field
or at bat.
Julio Zuleta, 1b/lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 68 18 4 0 3 9 12 2 4 1 14 0 0 .265 .320 .456 .776 10
Prorated ChN 66 18 4 0 3 9 12 2 4 1 14 0 0 .265 .320 .456 .776 10
Actual ChN 68 20 8 0 3 13 12 3 2 0 19 0 1 .294 .342 .544 .887 12
A big, strong guy, Zuleta has been talked up by the Cubs due to his raw
power. The organization was so desperate for him to break through last
year that he even ended up playing some left field, and Zuleta isn't mobile
even at first base. That's what happens with bad teams like the Cubs --
players like Zuleta end up filling roles they are totally unsuited for.
Zuleta may end up playing some first base this year in a platoon situation
along with Matt Stairs or Todd Hundley, but his inability to work the
strike zone will keep him from ever fully taking advantage of his raw
power.
Eric Young, 2b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 623 172 32 4 9 106 63 7 78 0 50 52 20 .276 .360 .384 .744 92
Prorated ChN 595 164 31 4 9 101 60 7 75 0 48 50 19 .276 .360 .384 .744 88
Actual ChN 607 180 40 2 6 98 47 8 63 1 39 54 7 .297 .367 .399 .766 99
Despite a high profile and some very visible skills, Young is just an
average player. He gets on base, but not enough to be a star leadoff hitter.
He steals a lot of bases and hits doubles, but doesn't really have much
power. Defensively, he works hard but is poor on the double play and has
below-par hands.
There were plenty of reasons why Chicago lost 97 games last year; one
was that even their top players, such as Mark Grace, Sammy Sosa, and Young,
have serious negatives that detract from their positives. On a team with
more productive hitters at first base, third base, and behind the plate,
Young's problems wouldn't be as serious. With the Cubs in 2000, his shortcomings
just couldn't be hidden.
Shane Andrews, 3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 523 121 24 0 30 64 81 1 68 3 145 2 2 .231 .317 .449 .767 75
Prorated ChN 194 45 9 0 11 24 30 0 25 1 54 1 1 .231 .317 .449 .767 28
Actual ChN 192 44 5 0 14 25 39 2 27 1 59 1 1 .229 .329 .474 .803 28
Like cornermate Willie Greene, Andrews had a chance to salvage his sunken
career on the North Side of Chicago, but he couldn't manage to do it.
Injuries damaged Andrews' chances -- a back bad has severely reduced his
mobility in the field and taken some of the sting from his swing. Whatever
the reason for his prolonged struggles, Andrews is in deep trouble. His
power is genuine, but it's his only tool; he is slow, has poor command
of the strike zone, and is prone to injury. For 2001, Andrews will go
to spring training with St. Louis in an attempt to win a bench role.
Willie Greene, 3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 66 16 3 0 3 9 11 0 9 0 15 0 0 .242 .333 .424 .758 10
Prorated ChN 298 72 14 0 14 41 50 0 41 0 68 0 0 .242 .333 .424 .758 44
Actual ChN 299 60 15 2 10 34 37 2 36 2 69 4 0 .201 .289 .365 .654 33
Greene is running out of chances even though he hasn't even broken 30.
He had all the opportunity in the world to win a regular job with Chicago
in 2000, but he came to camp out of shape, and a spring training hand
injury disabled him early on.
Once he saw action, Greene started well, but after batting .263 with
five homers in May, he just collapsed. Greene batted below .200 in three
of the remaining four months. He was 1-for-14 as a pinch-hitter. It would
be a desperate team that gave him 300 at-bats in 2001, and with the Cubs
not interested, Greene is running low on desperate teams.
Jeff Huson, 3b/2b/ss, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 129 32 4 0 1 12 11 0 9 0 17 3 1 .248 .295 .302 .597 11
Prorated ChN 134 33 4 0 1 12 11 0 9 0 18 3 1 .248 .295 .302 .597 12
Actual ChN 130 28 7 1 0 19 11 0 13 1 9 2 1 .215 .287 .285 .571 10
Huson has retired following a good career as a hard-working, intelligent
utility player.
Cole Liniak, 3b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 69 16 4 0 2 9 7 0 6 0 11 0 0 .232 .293 .377 .670 7
Prorated ChN 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .232 .293 .377 .670 0
Actual ChN 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Baylor never warmed up to Liniak, who spent almost the entire season
at Triple-A without impressing anyone. Liniak is very slow and won't hit
for high average, but has line-drive power and the ability to play third
base, second, and shortstop in a pinch. Liniak is still young enough to
have a career, but he didn't help himself in 2000. After the season, he
was traded to Toronto for a player to be named.
Chad Meyers, 3b/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 67 17 4 0 0 11 5 1 7 0 10 4 2 .254 .333 .313 .647 7
Prorated ChN 51 13 3 0 0 8 4 1 5 0 8 3 2 .254 .333 .313 .647 6
Actual ChN 52 9 2 0 0 8 5 1 3 0 11 1 0 .173 .228 .212 .440 3
Speed is Meyers' best tool. That, and his versatility -- he can play
second base, third base, and the outfield -- will have to be enough if
he is to land a job in the majors. The best that Meyers can hope for is
a utility role, because even in the minors he showed no punch, and he
won't get enough at-bats in the majors to prove that he can hit for average.
Meyers is heady and works hard, which put him over the hump in a battle
with others for a bench job.
Jose Nieves, 3b/ss/2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 104 25 5 1 2 12 12 1 5 0 15 2 2 .240 .279 .365 .645 10
Prorated ChN 198 48 10 2 4 23 23 2 10 0 29 4 4 .240 .279 .365 .645 19
Actual ChN 198 42 6 3 5 17 24 0 11 1 43 1 1 .212 .251 .348 .600 15
Nieves is a shortstop with a strong arm and good hands. Offensively,
he has little to offer besides a bit of pull power. He decided to attack
fastballs early in the count in 2000, a tendency which upped his extra-base
numbers but dropped his average and on-base percentage to unacceptable
levels. As a backup shortstop/third baseman, Nieves is valuable. However,
he is not and will never be a quality regular because he just can't produce
enough offense.
Ricky Gutierrez, ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 523 136 19 3 5 66 54 5 66 6 84 7 8 .260 .346 .337 .682 60
Prorated ChN 470 122 17 3 4 59 49 4 59 5 76 6 7 .260 .346 .337 .682 54
Actual ChN 449 124 19 2 11 73 56 7 66 0 58 8 2 .276 .375 .401 .775 73
Signed from Houston as a free agent, Gutierrez enjoyed a surprisingly
good season -- especially good given his average across-the-board skills.
He set career highs in most offensive categories, and unlike many of his
teammates, hit well in Wrigley Field. When Gutierrez went to the disabled
list on May 25 (batting .315 at the time) with a separated shoulder, the
air simply went out of the Cubs' season. The team deteriorated while he
was out of action, and when Gutierrez returned, he wasn't the same player.
In the field he made the average plays and sometimes the tough ones,
doing his best to turn the double play despite a poor keystone partner
in Eric Young. Showing he could co-exist with his manager's predeliction
for questionably effective one-run skills, Gutierrez also led the NL with
16 sacrifices.
Augie Ojeda, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual ChN 77 17 3 1 2 10 8 0 10 1 9 0 1 .221 .307 .364 .670 9
Ojeda, just 5' 8", is a sparkplug with some skills. Despite his size,
he is a quality shortstop with range. He will take walks and can bunt,
and even showed surprising power. While he is not likely to hit for enough
average to win a regular job, far worse players in the majors are making
far more money. Of the several players who filled in at short during Gutierrez'
injury last year, Ojeda was the most impressive.
Henry Rodriguez, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 378 103 21 1 22 54 70 1 46 5 98 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 68
Prorated ChN 254 69 14 1 15 36 47 1 31 3 66 1 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 46
Actual ChN 259 65 15 1 18 37 51 3 22 2 76 1 2 .251 .314 .525 .839 42
Prorated Flo 109 30 6 0 6 16 20 0 13 1 28 0 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 20
Actual Flo 108 29 6 0 2 10 10 1 14 0 23 0 0 .269 .358 .380 .737 16
Prorated Tot 363 99 20 1 21 52 67 1 44 5 94 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 65
Actual Tot 367 94 21 1 20 47 61 4 36 2 99 1 2 .256 .327 .482 .809 59
Rodriguez showed his streakiness in 2000 for the Cubs, enduring a terrible
start before coming alive as the summer began. Dealt to Florida on July
31, he gave the Marlins very little production. Unsigned as of January
2001, Rodriguez is now at best a platoon outfielder/first baseman/DH.
He is nearly unplayable in the outfield and is a slow and poor runner.
But his one skill is significant: against certain pitchers, Rodriguez
shows tremendous power both to right and left fields.
Glenallen Hill, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 193 57 10 1 12 31 34 1 16 1 42 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 35
Prorated ChN 162 48 8 1 10 26 29 1 13 1 35 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 30
Actual ChN 168 44 4 1 11 23 29 0 10 2 43 0 1 .262 .303 .494 .797 23
Prorated NYA 130 38 7 1 8 21 23 1 11 1 28 1 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 24
Actual NYA 132 44 5 0 16 22 29 1 9 0 33 0 0 .333 .378 .735 1.112 37
Prorated Tot 292 86 15 2 18 47 51 2 24 2 64 3 2 .295 .349 .544 .893 53
Actual Tot 300 88 9 1 27 45 58 1 19 2 76 0 1 .293 .336 .600 .936 58
What Hill can still do is hit for power -- tremendous, game-breaking
power. And that's about all. Luckily, that's enough for him to have a
role. In fact, Hill will have a place in the majors until his bat slows
down enough to make his other (fading) skills intolerable. It's hard to
imagine that Hill once patrolled center field for the Cubs; while he still
has a fairly good arm, his range is well below average and his once-excellent
speed has diminished dramatically. He likes to hit and doesn't like doing
anything else nearly as well, making it hard to think of a better candidate
for DH-hood than Hill. In that role, he can do everything the job requires,
and what he can't do, he won't need to.
Rondell White, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mon 585 173 29 6 24 89 79 11 42 2 94 14 7 .296 .351 .489 .840 98
Prorated Mon 293 87 15 3 12 45 40 6 21 1 47 7 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 49
Actual Mon 290 89 24 0 11 52 54 2 28 0 67 5 1 .307 .370 .503 .873 56
Prorated ChN 67 20 3 1 3 10 9 1 5 0 11 2 1 .296 .351 .489 .840 11
Actual ChN 67 22 2 0 2 7 7 2 5 0 12 0 2 .328 .392 .448 .840 12
Prorated Tot 360 107 18 4 15 55 49 7 26 1 58 9 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 60
Actual Tot 357 111 26 0 13 59 61 4 33 0 79 5 3 .311 .374 .493 .867 67
The Cubs should have known better. Of course, if they knew better,
they wouldn't be the Cubs. White is injury-prone, and this tendency
continued in 2000. The Cubs traded for White on July 31, while he was
disabled with a hamstring problem. Less than a month after the deal, he
was shelved again, this time for the rest of the year after suffering
a dislocated shoulder on a steal attempt. When he is able to play, White
is a quality hitter with some punch whose swing appears tailor-made for
Wrigley Field.
Defensively, he has plus range in left field and is really not suited
for center field anymore as knee and hamstring problems have decreased
his range and speed His five trips to the disabled list in the last three
years are certainly a warning about his future.
Tarrik Brock, lf/cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 67 13 3 0 1 10 6 0 8 0 18 2 1 .194 .280 .284 .564 6
Prorated ChN 14 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 .194 .280 .284 .564 1
Actual ChN 12 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 4 1 1 .167 .375 .167 .542 1
Brock began the season on the Cubs' roster as a spare outfielder, but
didn't last. If speed were gold, he'd be rich. However, the old baseball
adage remains true, and Brock can't steal first. He's going to camp with
the Dodgers in 2001.
Brant Brown, of, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 108 26 5 1 4 16 16 1 9 1 29 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 14
Prorated Flo 69 17 3 1 3 10 10 1 6 1 19 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 9
Actual Flo 73 14 6 0 2 4 6 0 3 0 33 1 0 .192 .224 .356 .580 6
Prorated ChN 93 22 4 1 3 14 14 1 8 1 25 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 12
Actual ChN 89 14 1 0 3 7 10 1 10 0 29 2 1 .157 .248 .270 .517 6
Prorated Tot 162 39 7 1 6 24 24 1 13 1 43 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 21
Actual Tot 162 28 7 0 5 11 16 1 13 0 62 3 1 .173 .237 .309 .546 12
Brown may have been the worst player in the major leagues last season.
Continuing a slide that began when pitchers figured out that he could
hit a fastball but nothing else, Brown has lost his power and his ability
to hit for average. He could not adjust last year and the more he played,
the worse he performed: 62 strikeouts in 162 at-bats ought to be enough
indication that Brown's career is in serious trouble. He has signed with
Milwaukee for 2001, which seems utterly appropriate.
Roosevelt Brown, of, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 477 135 38 2 23 64 94 4 31 2 88 7 3 .283 .329 .516 .845 78
Prorated ChN 90 25 7 0 4 12 18 1 6 0 17 1 1 .283 .329 .516 .845 15
Actual ChN 91 32 8 0 3 11 14 1 4 0 22 0 1 .352 .378 .538 .916 19
Brown is a frustrating mix of talent and shortcomings. Given regular
playing time in September with Rondell White out of action, Brown batted
.390 with 11 RBI -- this after a mediocre performance at Triple-A. He
has a natural left-hander's swing and average defensive tools, but his
low walk totals give plenty of cause for alarm. His lack of selectivity
at the plate will only hurt him in the future as pitchers adjust. The
Cubs seem to realize this: at no point does he ever enter into management's
discussions about regular outfielders for 2001. Brown didn't get much
of a chance in 2000 because the Cubs had a logjam in the outfield early
in the season; however, Brown should stick as a left-handed reserve if
he can make better contact or improve his defense slightly.
Ross Gload, lf/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual ChN 31 6 0 1 1 4 3 0 3 0 10 0 0 .194 .257 .355 .612 3
Gload came to the Cubs in a July 31 deal that sent Henry Rodriguez to
the Marlins. At Iowa, Gload hit .404 in 28 games with 14 home runs, earning
a promotion to Chicago. Unfortunately, Gload was clearly over his head
when he reached the majors and didn't do anything well, though he remains
on the 40-man roster. A converted first baseman, Gload lacks speed and
range in the outfield and will have to hit his way back. Nobody is counting
on him as a regular for 2001.
Raul Gonzalez, lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 69 18 4 0 2 10 11 0 5 0 9 1 0 .261 .307 .406 .712 8
Prorated ChN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .261 .307 .406 .712 0
Actual ChN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
After spending five straight full seasons at Double-A, Gonzalez signed
with the Cubs in 2000 and advanced to Triple-A before earning a small
latte in Chicago. Taken off the 40-man roster immediately after his demotion,
Gonzalez' status isn't even good enough for him to be an afterthought.
Gary Matthews Jr., lf/cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 65 13 2 0 1 8 8 1 9 0 14 2 0 .200 .307 .277 .584 6
Prorated ChN 152 30 5 0 2 19 19 2 21 0 33 5 0 .200 .307 .277 .584 14
Actual ChN 158 30 1 2 4 24 14 1 15 1 28 3 0 .190 .264 .297 .562 13
The Cubs loved Matthews' defense, both in left and center field, and
were very enamored of his hustle and attitude. Unfortunately, that couldn't
make up for his poor hitting. On a team that has a fourth outfielder who
can hit, Matthews might be an affordable luxury as a #5; he is a prime
defensive replacement/double switch/pinch-runner type. However, as anyone
could have seen from looking at his numbers at Triple-A Las Vegas in 1999,
he can't hit well and most likely never will.
Damon Buford, cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 164 40 8 1 5 24 23 1 14 0 36 5 2 .244 .306 .396 .702 20
Prorated ChN 504 123 25 3 15 74 71 3 43 0 111 15 6 .244 .306 .396 .702 62
Actual ChN 495 124 18 3 15 64 48 8 47 3 118 4 6 .251 .324 .390 .714 62
It was a mixed year for Buford: good early, bad late. While Buford did
show surprising pop, especially early in the season, he faded dramatically
as the year progressed, batting just .207 with one home run in the last
two months. After NL pitchers figured out that Buford would chase pitches
out of the strike zone, he didn't get a lot of fastballs to hit -- thus
rendering his power far less relevant. Cubs hitting coach Jeff Pentland
tried to help Buford be more patient at the plate in 2000, but the advice
didn't take.
However, in center field, Buford did the job adequately: he has good
instincts and moves well into both power alleys. Unfortunately, his speed
doesn't help him on the bases, because he has poor on-base skills. And
what good are raw power and speed if you can't really use them?
Corey Patterson, cf, age 20
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual ChN 42 7 1 0 2 9 2 1 3 0 14 1 1 .167 .239 .333 .572 3
The Cubs and most people in baseball believe that Patterson, a five-tool
talent, will be a star in the majors. But it won't happen unless he learns
to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone. Following his first
hit in the majors, a mammoth home run in Milwaukee on September 19, he
barely saw another fastball. The Cubs probably shouldn't bring him north
from Arizona in 2001, as he really could use another 400 at-bats in the
high minors in order to learn how to gauge the off-speed and breaking
pitches that veteran hurlers use to nail young hitters like Patterson.
Sammy Sosa, rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 600 172 22 1 56 109 131 2 71 9 157 11 8 .287 .362 .607 .969 126
Prorated ChN 625 179 23 1 58 114 136 2 74 9 163 11 8 .287 .362 .607 .969 131
Actual ChN 604 193 38 1 50 106 138 2 91 19 168 7 4 .320 .406 .634 1.040 157
What history may not remember about Sammy Sosa in 2000 is that almost
everyone connected with the team would have been happy to see him traded
in July, if only to end the constant bickering about his contract. The
bickering and negotiations didn't stop in the off-season, either. While
his financial requests may seem excessive for someone past his physical
prime, this much can be said: Sosa has been one of the premier home run
hitters in baseball for the past three years, of course, but the surprise
was that he truly improved his approach at the plate in 2000. Waiting
patiently on pitches plus a newfound willingness to go the other way have
made him a far more effective offensive performer even if his long-ball
output dropped somewhat. In the field, though, his throwing arm has declined
and he no longer runs often or effectively.
Pitching
Injuries and veteran ineffectiveness destroyed the team’s pitching staff
in 2000. Physical problems affecting starters Kerry Wood, Kevin Tapani,
and Ismael Valdes forced the Cubs to improvise with not-ready youngsters
like Ruben Quevedo, Jamie Arnold, Daniel Garibay, and others. Jon Lieber
was also forced to assume a greater role than his talent would allow.
The bullpen, expected to be at least average, was instead a nightmare.
Veteran Rick Aguilera showed convincingly that he was no longer a closer,
while veteran middle relievers Mark Guthrie, Felix Heredia, and Brian
Williams were unproductive. By the end of the season, more veterans were
brought in, with a few (Todd Van Poppel and Tim Worrell) pitching well
enough to help. Young Kyle Farnsworth, asked to assume short relief duties,
pitched badly enough to damage his career.
Jon Lieber, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.30 32 32 11 11 0 199 210 27 47 166 .272 .743
Prorated ChN 4.30 40 40 14 14 0 250 264 34 59 209 .272 .743
Actual ChN 4.41 35 35 12 11 0 251 248 36 54 192 .257 .725
While he doesn't really have the stuff to be a #1 starter for a contending
team, Lieber is talented and does nothing to embarrass the Cubs. The durable
and strong right-hander has shed the "five-inning pitcher" label that
he picked up while in Pittsburgh, leading the NL in innings and setting
a career high in victories. However, as usual, Lieber (not a great physical
specimen) faded badly down the stretch in 2000 (7.05 ERA in August, 5.88
in September). A sinker/slider pitcher, Lieber is still working, with
only sporadic success, on adding an off-speed delivery to help him against
lefties. He benefited from the surprisingly tough hitting conditions last
year at Wrigley Field, notching a 3.71 ERA at home, but was pounded for
a career-worst 36 home runs, third most in the league -- most of them
on hanging sliders. There is little reason to suspect that he will make
any big positive or negative turns in his career in his early thirties.
Kevin Tapani, starter, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.84 32 32 10 12 0 193 213 25 57 114 .281 .790
Prorated ChN 4.84 32 32 10 12 0 193 212 25 57 114 .281 .790
Actual ChN 5.01 30 30 8 12 0 196 208 35 47 150 .271 .779
Back problems and a bad knee (which required season-ending surgery in
September) hampered Tapani's effectiveness in 2000. He gamely went out
and did his best, but his follow-through and power were affected by his
injuries and his pitches didn't move much. For a pitcher whose best offerings
are a split-finger fastball and a change-up, that is disastrous news.
After a rocky early part of the season, Tapani pitched well in June and
July, but then the knee went bad and he crashed in August. Tapani was
as stingy with the walk as always and did strike out more hitters than
he had since 1996, indicating that he's not completely finished. And his
ERA (like that of Jon Lieber) was far better at home than on the road.
However, the Cubs must realize that at his age, and coming off back-to-back
injury seasons, Tapani is a third starter at best.
Ismael Valdes, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.44 32 32 10 13 0 209 217 28 70 151 .268 .760
Prorated ChN 4.44 10 10 3 4 0 68 70 9 23 49 .268 .760
Actual ChN 5.37 12 12 2 4 0 67 71 17 27 45 .273 .855
Prorated LA 4.44 6 6 2 3 0 42 43 6 14 30 .268 .760
Actual LA 6.08 9 8 0 3 0 40 53 5 13 29 .327 .895
Prorated Tot 4.44 17 17 5 7 0 109 114 15 37 79 .268 .760
Actual Tot 5.64 21 20 2 7 0 107 124 22 40 74 .294 .870
Valdes didn't win any points in the clubhouse with the 2000 Cubs, and
only won two games on the field. The decline of the talented right-hander
was one of the major disappointments of Chicago's season. He reported
for camp out of shape after getting married the previous winter, he sat
out with the same type of blisters that he pitched with in the past; he
complained during his entire tenure in Chicago about everything from the
weather to the dimensions of the park even though he pitched well in home
games. When the Cubs dumped him on Los Angeles in late July, nobody was
sorry to see him go.
Valdes still has outstanding mechanics and good raw stuff, but he didn't
pitch well for the Dodgers either down the stretch. He was signed by Anaheim
for 2001, where an improvement in conditioning should help Valdes get
back to where he was two years ago. However, an improvement in his command
as well as his attitude is also necessary for him to return to being a
top pitcher.
Kyle Farnsworth, starter/reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.60 32 32 8 14 0 188 211 38 73 119 .284 .841
Prorated ChN 5.60 14 14 4 6 0 84 94 17 33 53 .284 .841
Actual ChN 6.43 46 5 2 9 1 77 90 14 50 74 .291 .868
Farnsworth moved to the bullpen early in the 2000 campaign. Bounced from
the rotation after pitching badly in April, he was horrible in relief
before a merciful demotion to Triple-A in May. Farnsworth was only mediocre
at Iowa before being recalled to Chicago, but on his return he pitched
better than previously. Oddly for a right-handed fastball pitcher (his
heat reaches 97 with regularity), Farnsworth was more effective against
left-handed batters.
Even with his late-season improvement, however, Farnsworth can't be counted
on until he shows that he can handle the pressure of late-inning relief.
While he has the classic power reliever arsenal (fastball and slider),
Farnsworth suffered when the Cubs forgot that the major leagues are not
a laboratory. It was foolish of the team to expect him to convert from
starting, where he had spent the last four seasons, to a late-inning relief
literally overnight. The jury is out as to his future, but Farnsworth's
stuff is so good that he will be given plenty of chances.
Kerry Wood, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.22 27 27 12 7 0 162 120 15 98 214 .207 .664
Prorated ChN 3.22 23 23 10 6 0 139 103 13 84 184 .207 .664
Actual ChN 4.80 23 23 8 7 0 137 112 17 87 132 .226 .737
Wood returned from career-threatening elbow surgery after not having
pitched in a year, so the Cubs cautiously limited the number of curves
and sliders he threw. Deprived of the hard curve that helped make him
a star in 1998, Wood had to rely more on his fastball and a newly-developed
change-up; this and the long layoff meant that Wood was nowhere near his
top form.
On the positive side, he didn't re-injure himself, and his fastball returned
almost to his pre-injury 98-mph level. Wood was overpowering even when
he didn't pitch his best -- check the opponents' batting average. Control
is still the biggest problem facing Kerry the K, which is unsurprising,
as the elbow is the part of the arm that most affects a pitcher's command.
It is impossible to predict what will happen to Wood in the long term,
but if he's healthy, he should improve in 2001.
Scott Downs, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 3 8 17 .279 .807
Prorated ChN 5.60 16 16 5 5 0 96 104 16 44 93 .279 .807
Actual ChN 5.17 18 18 4 3 0 94 117 13 37 63 .310 .894
Prorated Mon 5.60 1 1 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 3 .279 .807
Actual Mon 9.00 1 1 0 0 0 3 5 0 3 0 .385 .885
Prorated Tot 5.60 17 17 6 6 0 100 108 17 45 96 .279 .807
Actual Tot 5.29 19 19 4 3 0 97 122 13 40 63 .312 .894
Downs had some fine starts for Chicago before being traded to Montreal
for Rondell White. Unfortunately, he sprained his pitching elbow in his
first game with the Expos. Downs is a control pitcher who relies on his
curve and change-up to win. Therefore, the health of his elbow will be
of critical importance. If he makes a small improvement in control, he
could make a big leap, as he is young enough and skilled enough to do
so. The Expos believe that he will be ready to pitch in spring training.
Andrew Lorraine, starter/reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.35 4 4 1 2 0 23 28 4 9 15 .304 .880
Prorated ChN 6.35 6 6 1 3 0 32 40 6 13 21 .304 .880
Actual ChN 6.47 8 5 1 2 0 32 36 5 18 25 .286 .838
Prorated Cle 6.35 2 2 0 1 0 9 11 2 4 6 .304 .880
Actual Cle 3.86 10 0 0 0 0 9 8 1 5 5 .222 .762
Prorated Tot 6.35 7 7 2 4 0 41 51 7 16 27 .304 .880
Actual Tot 5.88 18 5 1 2 0 41 44 6 23 30 .272 .821
The former Angels' first-round pick is now a Triple-A pitcher who gets
emergency call-ups to the majors. A pure finesse hurler, he doesn't have
enough talent to stick for long and was just one of the record 31 pitchers
the Indians utilized last season. He's now a free agent.
Joey Nation, starter, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual ChN 6.94 2 2 0 2 0 12 12 2 8 8 .279 .873
Two late-season starts gave the Cubs the idea that Nation has some big-league
stuff. Whiffing 166 at Double-A West Tenn, he struck out more batters
than anyone else in the Cubs' system. However, 2000 was just his fourth
pro season and his first above Class A, so he won't be asked to shoulder
a big load in the majors very soon.
Phil Norton, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 7.71 3 3 0 2 0 16 22 4 8 13 .328 1.000
Prorated ChN 7.71 2 2 0 1 0 10 13 2 5 8 .328 1.000
Actual ChN 9.35 2 2 0 1 0 9 14 5 7 6 .350 1.197
When the Cubs were needy for starting pitching in August, they used Norton,
a lefty who came up in the organization. He didn't pitch well enough to
stick around and was outrighted back to Triple-A almost immediately. Norton
has ordinary pitches and his control is not sharp: he walked 104 at Iowa
last summer.
Ruben Quevedo, starter/reliever, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.88 3 3 1 2 0 17 20 5 8 16 .294 .922
Prorated ChN 6.88 16 16 5 11 0 91 107 27 43 86 .294 .922
Actual ChN 7.47 21 15 3 10 0 88 96 21 54 65 .271 .884
The bigger-than-listed lefty, acquired from the Braves in late 1999,
had a few good outings for Chicago but is plainly not ready to pitch in
the majors. Given his age, this shouldn't have been a surprise; he skipped
Double-A entirely, which looks like a mistake. A lack of sharpness in
his control really killed the big man in Chicago. When Quevedo fell behind
and tried to take a few mph off his pitches to get a strike over, he was
creamed. Nobody can survive allowing two homers a game, and the more Quevedo
went out there last year, the more he struggled. It would be a terrible
shame if Quevedo, who possesses above-par stuff, can't get it together
after having been rushed at such an early age.
Jamie Arnold, reliever / spot starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 5.69 30 0 2 3 0 49 60 6 26 23 .309 .866
Prorated LA 5.69 4 0 0 0 0 7 8 1 3 3 .309 .866
Actual LA 4.05 2 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 5 3 .174 .551
Prorated ChN 5.69 20 0 1 2 0 33 40 4 17 15 .309 .866
Actual ChN 6.61 12 4 0 3 1 33 34 1 19 13 .274 .715
Prorated Tot 5.69 24 0 2 2 0 39 48 5 21 19 .309 .866
Actual Tot 6.18 14 4 0 3 1 39 38 1 24 16 .259 .688
Arnold washed out with the Dodgers before coming to the Cubs in the Ismael
Valdes trade. He didn't help the Cubs as a starter, but he did pitch better
in relief (especially in September). While command low in the strike zone
was a serious problem, Arnold did keep the ball down, allowing just one
home run. Nevertheless, Arnold is a marginal pitcher and there is no reason
to expect that he will ever be successful, though there are a lot of marginal
teams out there.
Micah Bowie, reliever/starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.95 21 4 2 4 0 56 66 9 26 53 .293 .845
Bowie, short on stuff and too short on location to compensate, bombed
as a starter for the Cubs in 1999 and sank all the way back to Double-A
in 2000. He pitched well enough there to save his career, at least for
the moment, but there is little reason to expect to see him in Wrigley
Field for anything more than an emergency.
Daniel Garibay, reliever/starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual ChN 6.03 30 8 2 8 0 75 88 9 39 46 .299 .856
Garibay worked both as a starter and reliever for Chicago, but did neither
particularly well. He was 0-5 in eight starts with a 6.23 ERA and not
much better out of the pen. Control is, and has always been, his bugaboo;
Garibay's stuff is better than that of most left-handers who populate
the middle-relief ghetto.
Mark Guthrie, reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 76 12 31 55 .271 .813
Prorated ChN 4.60 14 0 1 1 0 19 20 3 8 14 .271 .813
Actual ChN 4.82 19 0 2 3 0 19 17 1 10 17 .258 .698
Prorated Tam 4.60 24 0 1 2 0 33 35 5 14 25 .271 .813
Actual Tam 4.50 34 0 1 1 0 32 33 4 18 26 .262 .743
Prorated Tor 4.60 15 0 1 1 0 20 21 3 9 15 .271 .813
Actual Tor 4.79 23 0 0 2 0 21 20 3 9 20 .263 .740
Prorated Tot 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 75 12 31 54 .271 .813
Actual Tot 4.67 76 0 3 6 0 71 70 8 37 63 .261 .731
The Cubs had hopes for Guthrie, but the veteran southpaw didn't distinguish
himself and was traded to Tampa Bay in May for outfielder Dave Martinez
in the kind of body-shuffling deal that usually does little to help either
team. Guthrie still has some utility and, in fact, was signed in the off-season
by Oakland, which apparently has plans to convert him to the rotation
for 2001 (Guthrie started 41 times in 1989-91).
Felix Heredia, reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.91 70 0 4 4 1 71 69 6 37 64 .255 .736
Prorated ChN 3.91 56 0 3 3 1 57 55 5 29 51 .255 .736
Actual ChN 4.76 74 0 7 3 2 59 46 6 33 52 .220 .679
It seems that Heredia has been around forever, but he is still young
and has time to improve, and he certainly has plenty of improving to do.
His command is just terrible, and an inability to locate the ball consistently
nearly drove Baylor crazy. Heredia ended up in the manager's doghouse
often last year despite being the only lefty on the staff with real ability.
While his crossfire motion and good stuff get lefty batters out, Heredia
is not effective against righties. He has no off-speed pitch or cut fastball
to use against them, and without one, he could fall permanently into the
"situational lefty" category even though he would seem to have too much
talent for that. It is important to recall that the Marlins really pushed
Heredia; he pitched just one season (55 games, 60 innings) above Class
A before being promoted to the majors in 1996 at age 20.
Matt Karchner, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.09 70 0 5 5 2 95 94 14 44 67 .260 .771
Prorated ChN 4.09 13 0 1 1 0 17 17 3 8 12 .260 .771
Actual ChN 6.14 13 0 1 1 0 15 19 3 11 5 .311 1.001
Leg injuries have torpedoed Karchner's career. A reasonable middle reliever/setup
pitcher with a good sinking fastball when healthy, Karchner hasn't been
the same since moving from the White Sox. He had three trials with the
Cubs last year but didn't pitch well at any time. He was so unhappy at
Triple-A Iowa, and was said to be such a negative presence around younger
players, that the Cubs simply released him in early September.
Oswaldo Mairena, reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual ChN 18.00 2 0 0 0 0 2 7 1 2 0 .583 1.560
The Cubs acquired Mairena, a smallish lefty, from the Yankees in July.
He pitched with five different clubs last year, including Chicago.
Will Ohman, reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual ChN 8.10 6 0 1 0 0 3 4 0 4 2 .308 .778
Despite the poor totals Ohman showed in his short stint with Chicago,
he has a chance to begin 2001 in the bullpen. The management loves Ohman's
take-charge attitude, and he is apparently a prototypical off-the-wall
left-hander. While he had a good overall season (6-4, 1.89 ERA in 59 games)
at Double-A, Ohman did experience some control problems there. It is unlikely
that he will figure out how to master them against big-league competition.
Steve Rain, reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.75 13 0 1 1 0 16 20 3 11 14 .313 .916
Prorated ChN 6.75 36 0 3 3 0 44 55 8 30 38 .313 .916
Actual ChN 4.35 37 0 3 4 0 50 46 10 27 54 .250 .799
Rain was removed from the 40-man roster before the 2000 season, but pitched
well enough at Triple-A early in the year to earn a callup to Chicago.
He pitched better early than late; by season's end, he had exhausted Baylor's
patience. Allowing righties, who he is supposed to get out, a .273 average
and seven homers in just 110 at-bats is a good way to win an all-expense
paid ticket to Des Moines. Rain has a quality split-finger pitch but didn't
use it enough; he was not able to adjust when hitters caught up to his
just-average fastball and won't outthink his limitations. Now a free agent.
Jerry Spradlin, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776
Prorated KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776
Actual KC 5.52 50 0 4 4 7 75 81 9 27 54 .283 .805
Prorated ChN 4.25 12 0 1 1 0 16 17 2 6 13 .273 .776
Actual ChN 8.40 8 1 0 1 0 15 20 2 5 13 .328 .869
Prorated Tot 4.25 65 0 5 5 0 88 93 11 36 70 .273 .776
Actual Tot 6.00 58 1 4 5 7 90 101 11 32 67 .291 .816
Nobody questions Spradlin's raw stuff. He throws a high fastball in the
mid-90s with movement. However, he constantly falls behind in the count
-- his awkward motion probably contributes to that -- and pays for his
bad location as opponents knock him silly. Spradlin had a golden chance
to win the Royals' closer's job, but after pitching well in May (five
saves, 2.30 ERA), he got increasingly terrible before Kansas City, desperate
for any quality pitchers, released him August 30. He inked with the Cubs
on September 8 and allowed 14 earned runs in 15 innings; after pitching
for five big-league teams in the last three years, he will be lucky to
find a sixth for 2001.
Todd Van Poppel, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 6.43 4 4 1 2 0 21 25 4 10 16 .298 .892
Prorated ChN 6.43 16 16 4 8 0 83 98 16 39 63 .298 .892
Actual ChN 3.75 51 2 4 5 2 86 80 10 48 77 .249 .749
Signed to a Triple-A deal before 2000, Van Poppel pitched ten games at
Iowa and was purchased by the Cubs in early May. He pitched well in middle
and setup relief during the first half of the season (2.23 ERA), but really
sank in the second half (4.86 ERA) as he suffered from the control troubles
that had sabotaged most of his career. Van Poppel's role is not likely
to expand beyond middle relief.
Brian Williams, reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.43 40 0 3 4 0 67 69 6 35 50 .268 .775
Prorated ChN 4.43 16 0 1 2 0 27 28 2 14 20 .268 .775
Actual ChN 9.62 22 0 1 1 1 24 28 4 23 14 .304 .997
Prorated Cle 4.43 11 0 1 1 0 18 19 2 9 14 .268 .775
Actual Cle 4.00 7 0 0 0 0 18 23 2 8 6 .324 .832
Prorated Tot 4.43 27 0 2 3 0 45 47 4 24 34 .268 .775
Actual Tot 7.23 29 0 1 1 1 42 51 6 31 20 .313 .927
The Cubs signed the hard-throwing but wilder-than-a-March-hare Williams
to a two-year deal last winter, then dumped him by the end of May. After
a reasonably successful 1999 in a protected role in the Astrodome, Williams
apparently fooled the Cubs into thinking he had conquered his control
troubles. Instead, Williams was simply awful. He's a good bet to keep
bouncing around as he has the potential to get a job, but not the ability
to keep one. He recently signed a minor-league deal with the Red Sox.
Tim Worrell, reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.35 23 0 2 2 0 39 41 5 18 31 .270 .790
Prorated Bal 4.35 5 0 0 0 0 9 9 1 4 7 .270 .790
Actual Bal 7.36 5 0 2 2 0 7 12 3 5 5 .353 1.201
Prorated ChN 4.35 36 0 3 3 0 61 64 8 28 48 .270 .790
Actual ChN 2.47 54 0 3 4 3 62 60 7 24 52 .252 .721
Prorated Tot 4.35 41 0 4 4 0 70 73 9 32 55 .270 .790_
Actual Tot 2.99 59 0 5 6 3 69 72 10 29 57 .265 .781
When the Cubs signed Worrell in May off the scrap pile, they weren't
expecting him to pitch very well. But pitch well he did, surprisingly
becoming the team's only truly dependable relief pitcher during the second
half of the season. Worrell showed that he still had some life in his
arm. He was durable, pitching in 54 of the Cubs' final 112 games, and
had enough left in September to allow just one earned run in his final
14 appearances. Following the season Chicago traded him to San Francisco,
where he will be asked to fill a key role. While his 2000 performance
would indicate that Worrell is "back," he hadn't pitched effectively since
1996.
Danny Young, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 5.83 23 0 1 2 0 29 34 5 20 24 .293 .886
Prorated ChN 5.83 3 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 3 3 .293 .886
Actual ChN 21.00 4 0 0 1 0 3 5 1 6 0 .357 1.264
Young pitched four times for the Cubs and showed no control or command
of his pitches. Once again, this should have surprised nobody given his
performance in earlier years. Optioned to Triple-A on April 7, and outrighted
there in May, Young tore his left rotator cuff in September. His career
is in jeopardy. Now a free agent.
Rick Aguilera, closer, age 38
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 3.40 70 0 4 6 30 77 71 11 20 59 .246 .712
Prorated ChN 3.40 47 0 3 4 20 51 47 7 13 39 .246 .712
Actual ChN 4.91 54 0 1 2 29 48 47 11 18 38 .251 .795
Aguilera is no longer capable of effectively closing games for a major-league
club. The bite is gone from his pitches, especially his formerly excellent
splitter, and he is making far too many mistakes in the strike zone: 11
homers in 48 innings for a closer -- especially one who does not throw
hard and lives on control -- is inexcusable. His decline was surprisingly
quick, although he had been living on the edge for a couple of seasons.
In 2000, he walked ten lefty batters in fewer than 100 plate appearances
and surrendered eight homers to right-handers in just 113 at-bats. Should
Aguilera remain active -- and whether he will is not clear -- it could
only be as a setup reliever. Now a free agent.
Outlook
The Cubs went into 2000 thinking that their veteran club could perform
respectably. Instead, the clubhouse got old together. For 2001, management
has again loaded up on other clubs’ underachieving and burned-out veterans,
picking up Matt Stairs, Bill Mueller, Ron Coomer, Jason Bere, Tom Gordon,
and Jeff Fassero in off-season deals and signings. The only off-season
acquisitions who could make a real difference are Todd Hundley, who remains
an excellent hitter, and pitcher Julian Tavarez.
The longer term future of the Cubs, as represented by the level of talent
in the high minors, is brighter. Center fielder Corey Patterson, first
baseman Hee Choi, and pitchers Carlos Zambrano, Ben Christiansen, and
Will Ohman should all make a difference when they come up to The Show
in the next year or two. But for now, the biggest thing to think about
in 2001 is what the Cubs can get when they have to trade Sammy Sosa in
July.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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