2000 Post-Season Review -- Cleveland Indians
By Zack Scott
January 29, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Cleveland Indians did in the 2000
season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach
used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our
publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 934 950
Runs allowed 794 816
Run Margin 140 134
Wins 94 90
Pythagorean wins 94 93
Placement 1st 2nd
Following their collapse versus Boston in the 1999 ALDS, the Indians
fired manager Mike Hargrove for not bringing a world championship to Cleveland.
Under Hargrove, the Indians averaged 97 wins over the last five seasons
(with their 1995 win total extrapolated to a full season) and won their
division in each of those years. It was an impressive run, but they lost
in both of their World Series appearances, and their 1999 playoff debacle
was the final straw.
So Charlie Manuel was hired with the hopes that a new skipper would yield
better results, but the Chicago White Sox came out of nowhere to end Cleveland's
streak at five AL Central titles. The White Sox took control of the division
in June by winning 20 games while Cleveland had their only losing month
of the season (13-16). But the Indians made some moves to fill pitching
needs, and their veteran players picked it up a notch, leading the team
to the AL's best record after the break (46-30). Their late run proved
to not be enough, and the Indians came up a game short in the wildcard
race and missed the playoffs for the first time in six years.
Key Position Players
Cleveland looked to be strong once again, entering the season with essentially
the same cast of characters that produced the AL's best offense in 1999.
The 2000 edition was even more powerful, blasting 12 more homers than
a year ago and hitting more than 200 for the second straight year. Statistically,
the offense ranked the same or higher in several categories -- average,
OBP, SPC, HR, and total bases -- the offense was not as efficient (or
lucky) as it had been the year before. As a result, they scored 59 fewer
runs than in 1999 and finished second in scoring behind the White Sox,
who trailed the Indians statistically but made the most of their opportunities.
Manny Ramirez led the offensive charge with support from typically solid
performances by Jim Thome, Roberto Alomar, and Kenny Lofton, Travis Fryman's
career year, and the combined efforts of the Davids (Justice and Segui).
Defensively, the Tribe made the fewest errors in the league thanks to
the remarkably steady defense of Gold Glove winners Omar Vizquel (3 errors),
Alomar (15 errors), and Fryman (8 errors) and the combination of Thome,
Segui, and Richie Sexson at first (6 errors combined).
Sandy Alomar, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 474 127 34 2 14 63 70 3 26 1 58 0 1 .268 .308 .437 .744 61
Prorated Cle 356 95 26 2 11 47 53 2 20 1 44 0 1 .268 .308 .437 .744 46
Actual Cle 356 103 16 2 7 44 42 4 16 1 41 2 2 .289 .324 .404 .728 45
Thirteen years and eight knee operations later, Alomar continues to battle
through the nagging injuries that plague an aging catcher. But his significant
loss of power results in average-at-best production, and his arm continues
to be weak (only 20% CS over the last two seasons). By acquiring Eddie
Taubensee from Cincinnati, the Indians bid Alomar adieu, and he signed
with the White Sox to be the veteran presence they feel their young pitching
needs.
Einar Diaz, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 88 25 5 0 1 11 9 1 5 0 9 1 1 .284 .330 .375 .705 10
Prorated Cle 255 72 14 0 3 32 26 3 14 0 26 3 3 .284 .330 .375 .705 30
Actual Cle 250 68 14 2 4 29 25 8 11 0 29 4 2 .272 .323 .392 .715 30
Diaz will never be more than a backup because he has no power and doesn't
walk, but he has a slightly above average arm and fields the position
well. Basically, he hits like today's Alomar but catches like the Alomar
of 5 years ago minus the 13 years of major league experience. Diaz will
share time with Taubensee in 2001.
Jim Thome, 1b/dh, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 531 146 32 2 32 105 104 4 119 11 163 0 0 .275 .409 .524 .932 122
Prorated Cle 552 152 33 2 33 109 108 4 124 11 169 0 0 .275 .409 .524 .932 127
Actual Cle 557 150 33 1 37 106 106 4 118 4 171 1 0 .269 .398 .531 .929 127
Since becoming Cleveland's everyday first baseman in 1995, Thome has
averaged 34 homers and almost 100 RBI per season, but his overall on-base
and slugging numbers have been steadily declining since 1996 (dropping
52 OBP points and 81 SPC points, respectively). Despite the offensive
decline, Thome still ranked among the AL's top 5 first basemen, and his
defense continues to improve. With David Segui's departure, Thome will
see most if not all of his time at first and less at DH.
David Segui, 1b/dh, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 567 162 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 80 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 89
Prorated Tex 350 100 19 2 12 48 46 1 34 4 49 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 55
Actual Tex 351 118 29 1 11 52 57 0 34 1 51 0 1 .336 .391 .519 .909 69
Prorated Cle 221 63 12 1 8 30 29 0 21 2 31 0 0 .286 .347 .457 .803 35
Actual Cle 223 74 13 0 8 41 46 1 19 1 33 0 0 .332 .384 .498 .881 41
Prorated Tot 571 163 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 81 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 90
Actual Tot 574 192 42 1 19 93 103 1 53 2 84 0 1 .334 .388 .510 .898 110
After losing the productive bat of David Justice, Cleveland added punch
to the lineup by sending Ricky Ledee to Texas for Segui. As an Indian,
Segui was an RBI machine, knocking in 46 runs in just 57 games as he continued
to hit at his career best average. Segui also achieved career bests in
hits, doubles, runs, and RBI, driving in over 100 runs for the first time.
After the season, he signed a 4-year $28 million contract to return to
Baltimore, where his career began.
Roberto Alomar, 2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 563 172 38 2 17 107 87 5 80 2 80 23 5 .306 .391 .471 .862 110
Prorated Cle 590 180 40 2 18 112 91 5 84 2 84 24 5 .306 .391 .471 .862 116
Actual Cle 610 189 40 2 19 111 89 6 64 4 82 39 4 .310 .378 .475 .853 114
As expected, Alomar's numbers came back towards their norms following
his career year in 1999. Despite the drop in production, he was still
the best second baseman in the AL, and he maintained his defensive reputation
by winning his ninth Gold Glove. Offensively, Alomar is great asset in
the second or third spot in the batting order because he gets on base
(career .375 OBP), has speed (39 steals, league-leading 91% success rate),
and drives in runs with his .300+ average. Alomar's impressive offense
from a middle infielder and defensive reputation make him a sure-bet Hall
of Famer.
Travis Fryman, 3b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 535 143 29 2 20 73 85 3 46 1 105 7 4 .267 .326 .441 .767 74
Prorated Cle 598 160 32 2 22 82 95 3 51 1 117 8 4 .267 .326 .441 .767 83
Actual Cle 574 184 38 4 22 93 106 1 73 2 111 1 1 .321 .392 .516 .908 118
Fryman came back from a torn knee ligament (1999) to put up his best
numbers to date, setting new career highs in batting average, OBP, SPC,
hits, doubles, total bases, and RBI. His production was second among third
basemen only to AL homerun champ Troy Glaus. Fryman even managed to win
his first Gold Glove -- a dubious choice that was based on his league-leading
fielding percentage but ignored his well-below-average range. Perhaps
Cleveland realized that his defense really wasn't Gold Glove caliber,
because they were reportedly interested in Ken Caminiti and Phil Nevin
during the off-season. If Fryman returns to average offensive production
in 2001, expect Russell Branyan to get a shot at third.
Enrique Wilson, 3b/ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 90 24 5 0 1 13 8 0 7 0 10 2 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 10
Prorated Cle 115 31 6 0 1 17 10 0 9 0 13 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 13
Actual Cle 117 38 9 0 2 16 12 0 7 0 11 2 1 .325 .360 .453 .813 19
Prorated Pit 124 33 7 0 1 18 11 0 10 0 14 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 14
Actual Pit 122 32 6 1 3 11 15 0 11 2 13 0 1 .262 .321 .402 .723 15
Prorated Tot 239 64 13 0 3 35 21 0 19 0 27 5 3 .267 .316 .356 .672 27
Actual Tot 239 70 15 1 5 27 27 0 18 2 24 2 2 .293 .340 .427 .767 34
Cleveland has wasted more than three years of Wilson's career by keeping
him on a roster loaded with infield talent. While his poor range and less-than-thrilling
hitting ability don't bode well for Wilson's career, the Indians did him
a favor by trading him to Pittsburgh in the Wil Cordero deal, and Wilson
will challenge the Pirates incumbent starting infielders for a job.
Omar Vizquel, ss, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 616 184 34 5 6 102 62 3 68 0 63 37 10 .299 .368 .399 .767 97
Prorated Cle 624 186 34 5 6 103 63 3 69 0 64 37 10 .299 .368 .399 .767 99
Actual Cle 613 176 27 3 7 101 66 5 87 0 72 22 10 .287 .377 .375 .753 93
Vizquel joined Roberto Alomar and Fryman as Gold Glove winners, notching
his 8th consecutive award. While his range has deteriorated slightly,
he has the best hands in the biz and made only 3 (!) errors at the most
demanding position. At the plate, Vizquel's bat came back to earth after
a career year in 1999, but he reached base often by walking 22 times more
than his previous high. His ability to get on base helped him score over
100 runs for the second straight season.
David Justice, lf/rf/dh, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 530 148 30 1 23 88 94 2 91 9 98 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 99
Prorated Cle 243 68 14 0 11 40 43 1 42 4 45 1 1 .279 .383 .470 .853 45
Actual Cle 249 66 14 1 21 46 58 0 38 2 49 1 1 .265 .361 .582 .943 52
Prorated NYA 268 75 15 1 12 44 48 1 46 5 50 2 2 .279 .383 .470 .853 50
Actual NYA 275 84 17 0 20 43 60 1 39 1 42 1 0 .305 .391 .585 .977 64
Prorated Tot 511 143 29 1 22 85 91 2 88 9 94 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 95
Actual Tot 524 150 31 1 41 89 118 1 77 3 91 2 1 .286 .377 .584 .961 116
In the midst of one of his best years, the Indians sent Justice and his
$7 million salary to the Yankees, perhaps looking to free up funds to
re-sign Manny Ramirez after the season. Justice went on to play even better
with New York and won his second World Series ring while Cleveland finished
one game out of the wild card.
What if the Indians never traded Justice for Ledee? Cleveland essentially
replaced Justice by sending Ledee on to Texas for Segui. The combination
of Segui and Ledee created 48 runs (RC) for Cleveland while Justice created
64 for the Yanks, a difference of 16 runs. Forgive me for oversimplifying
(not taking defense into account or other possible replacements), but
if Cleveland keeps Justice, they score 16 more runs which typically wins
them 2 more games and a playoff birth. In the end, this trade may have
kept the Indians out of the playoffs, and the money saved didn't help
them retain Ramirez.
Richie Sexson, lf/1b/dh, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 598 153 29 3 31 88 125 5 48 1 131 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 83
Prorated Cle 324 83 16 2 17 48 68 3 26 1 71 2 2 .256 .313 .470 .783 45
Actual Cle 324 83 16 1 16 45 44 4 25 0 96 1 0 .256 .315 .460 .774 46
Prorated Mil 228 58 11 1 12 34 48 2 18 0 50 1 1 .256 .313 .470 .783 32
Actual Mil 213 63 14 0 14 44 47 3 34 2 63 1 0 .296 .398 .559 .957 50
Prorated Tot 552 141 27 3 29 81 115 5 44 1 121 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 77
Actual Tot 537 146 30 1 30 89 91 7 59 2 159 2 0 .272 .349 .499 .848 95
How long will it take before we add Sexson to the list of young talent
(already includes Brian Giles, Sean Casey, and Jeromy Burnitz) traded
away by the Indians only to become stars with other teams? In return for
Sexson, Milwaukee gave Cleveland two below average starting pitchers (Steve
Woodard and Jason Bere) and a closer (Bob Wickman) who was only slightly
better than the pitcher he replaced (Steve Karsay).
But perhaps they had good reason to believe Sexson was expendable. As
an Indian, he displayed impressive homerun power but was impatient at
the plate, striking out almost 4 times as often as he walked. But right
on cue, Sexson showed flashes of superstar potential as a Brewer by adding
40 points to his batting average, hitting for more power, and almost doubling
his walk rate.
I wonder if Cleveland would be better off in 2001 (competitively and
financially) if they kept Justice and Sexson and didn't sign Ellis Burks
and Juan Gonzalez. I guess time will tell.
Wil Cordero, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 557 156 34 2 21 93 83 8 43 2 109 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 86
Prorated Pit 343 96 21 1 13 57 51 5 26 1 67 1 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 53
Actual Pit 348 98 24 3 16 46 51 4 25 1 58 1 2 .282 .336 .506 .842 55
Prorated Cle 143 40 9 1 5 24 21 2 11 1 28 1 0 .280 .338 .461 .799 22
Actual Cle 148 39 11 2 0 18 17 3 7 0 18 0 0 .264 .310 .365 .675 15
Prorated Tot 486 136 30 2 18 81 72 7 38 2 95 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 75
Actual Tot 496 137 35 5 16 64 68 7 32 1 76 1 2 .276 .328 .464 .792 70
After moving Justice and Sexson to cut payroll and acquire pitching help,
the Indians filled the outfield void by trading Alex Ramirez and Enrique
Wilson to Pittsburgh for Cordero. Cleveland hoped he could duplicate his
1999 success and continue to hit with the power he displayed as a Pirate.
But Cordero's power disappeared upon his return to Cleveland (no homeruns)
before his season was cut short when a pitch broke the little finger on
his right hand. Cordero will be part of a crowded corner outfield/DH mix
(along with Burks, Gonzalez, Branyan, and Butch Huskey) in 2001.
Ricky Ledee, lf/rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 397 105 21 4 15 70 57 1 46 4 108 8 4 .264 .339 .451 .790 62
Prorated NYA 195 51 10 2 7 34 28 0 23 2 53 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 31
Actual NYA 191 46 11 1 7 23 31 1 26 2 39 7 3 .241 .332 .419 .751 26
Prorated Cle 63 17 3 1 2 11 9 0 7 1 17 1 1 .264 .339 .451 .790 10
Actual Cle 63 14 2 1 2 13 8 0 8 0 9 0 0 .222 .310 .381 .691 7
Prorated Tex 212 56 11 2 8 37 30 1 25 2 58 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 33
Actual Tex 213 50 6 3 4 23 38 1 25 2 50 6 3 .235 .317 .347 .664 23
Prorated Tot 470 124 25 5 18 83 67 1 54 5 128 9 5 .264 .339 .451 .790 74
Actual Tot 467 110 19 5 13 59 77 2 59 4 98 13 6 .236 .322 .381 .703 56
It was only a matter of time before George Steinbrenner grew tired of
his inexperienced left fielders and acquired a high-priced veteran. Ledee's
brief stopover in Cleveland was bad, and he was even worse after being
sent to Texas for a more established bat (Segui). Ledee plays good defense
but hasn't hit for the average or power that is necessary to be a big-league
corner outfielder. In 2001, Ledee may be Texas' fourth outfielder behind
Gabe Kapler, Ruben Mateo, and Rusty Greer.
Kenny Lofton, cf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 575 166 31 7 10 109 55 4 83 2 90 33 9 .289 .380 .419 .799 100
Prorated Cle 550 159 30 7 10 104 53 4 79 2 86 32 9 .289 .380 .419 .799 96
Actual Cle 543 151 23 5 15 107 73 4 79 3 72 30 7 .278 .369 .422 .791 92
Lofton's dislocated left shoulder (injured while sliding into first during
the 1999 ALDS) required off-season rotator cuff surgery, and he was expected
to miss at least the first three months of the season. But Lofton rehabbed
vigorously and was Cleveland's starting CF on opening day. While his determination
is commendable, his numbers through June (.237 AVG, 17 extra-base hits)
suggest Lofton may have come back too soon. The doctors' timetable of
three months appeared to be right on because Lofton was outstanding for
the rest of the season (.306 AVG, 26 extra-base hits). Despite his slow
start, Lofton got on base enough to score more than 100 runs for the 6th
time in his eight seasons as an Indian. Cleveland rewarded Lofton's strong
second half by picking up his $8 million option, and they're counting
on him to set the table for Burks, Gonzalez, and Thome.
Manny Ramirez, rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 546 167 35 1 36 112 133 10 85 6 118 2 2 .306 .404 .571 .976 128
Prorated Cle 448 137 29 1 30 92 109 8 70 5 97 2 2 .306 .404 .571 .976 105
Actual Cle 439 154 34 2 38 92 122 3 86 9 117 1 1 .351 .457 .697 1.154 144
Ramirez appeared in his fewest games in six years due to a hamstring
injury that caused him to miss all of June, half of July, and a week in
August. Manuel didn't help the Indians' chances of re-signing Ramirez
by making it known that he wasn't happy with Manny's long absence due
to a common injury. But you can't blame the manager for wanting Manny's
bat in the lineup as often as possible.
Ramirez led the league with a Ruthian slugging percentage and finished
third in batting average, resulting in his third consecutive season with
at least 120 RBI. He has averaged 144 RBI in that time and is the
major league's active career leader in RBI rate (minimum 1000 AB) with
one per 4.3 atbats. And he's only 28! The only numbers more mind-boggling
may be on the contract he signed with the Red Sox, where the game's best
hitter will join the game's best pitcher in 2001.
Alex Ramirez, rf/lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 72 20 4 1 2 11 11 1 2 0 14 1 1 .278 .307 .444 .751 9
Prorated Cle 112 31 6 2 3 17 17 2 3 0 22 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 14
Actual Cle 112 32 5 1 5 13 12 0 5 0 17 1 0 .286 .316 .482 .798 16
Prorated Pit 118 33 7 2 3 18 18 2 3 0 23 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 15
Actual Pit 115 24 6 1 4 13 18 0 7 2 32 1 0 .209 .254 .383 .637 9
Prorated Tot 230 64 13 3 6 35 35 3 6 0 45 3 3 .278 .307 .444 .751 28
Actual Tot 227 56 11 2 9 26 30 0 12 2 49 2 0 .247 .285 .432 .716 25
The much less significant outfielder named Ramirez played adequate defense
but was a huge downgrade on offense (who wouldn't be?) as a replacement
for the injured Manny. After his trade to Pittsburgh, Ramirez played himself
out of a job and will earn his salary in Japan this season.
Jolbert Cabrera, of/2b/ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 67 17 3 0 0 10 5 1 6 0 10 3 1 .254 .324 .299 .623 7
Prorated Cle 167 42 7 0 0 25 12 2 15 0 25 7 2 .254 .324 .299 .623 17
Actual Cle 175 44 3 1 2 27 15 2 8 0 15 6 4 .251 .290 .314 .605 16
Cabrera played more than expected to give Lofton's shoulder a rest, but
he was mostly used as a defensive replacement. While he's a good outfielder
and adequate middle infielder, Cabrera can't hit so he'll never be more
than a utility guy.
Russ Branyan, dh/lf/rf/3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 66 13 2 0 4 8 11 1 8 0 28 1 0 .197 .293 .409 .702 8
Prorated Cle 194 38 6 0 12 23 32 3 23 0 82 3 0 .197 .293 .409 .702 25
Actual Cle 193 46 7 2 16 32 38 4 22 1 76 0 0 .238 .327 .544 .871 36
Branyan hit with the power of Jason Giambi but the batting average of
Ricky Ledee, suggesting he may become a star if he learns to make consistent
contact. But Branyan's minor league career .251 AVG and 838 strikeouts
(in only 601 games) indicates he may be an all-or-nothing hitter. The
good news: he turned 25 in December, so there's plenty of time for development.
Branyan was mostly a third baseman in the minors but, with Fryman at
third, has played in the outfield for Cleveland. With Burks, Gonzalez,
Cordero, and Huskey expected to share time in the outfield and at DH,
Fryman at third, and Thome at first, there may not be enough playing time
for Branyan. The situation is reminiscent of the circumstances surrounding
Giles, Casey, Burnitz, and Sexson. Will the list keep growing?
Key Pitchers
The 2000 Indians used 32 pitchers which, to no surprise, was the most
in the majors. Among those 32, eight of them attempted to fill in as the
4th and 5th starter for the injured Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright. Their
minor-league callups and washed-up veterans (including Jaime Navarro --
ugh) didn't pan out, and they were forced to trade the awesome power potential
of Sexson for Steve Woodard and Jason Bere.
Despite the disaster at the bottom of their rotation, Cleveland's starters
finished with an ERA in the middle of the pack thanks to typically strong
performances from Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley, and Dave Burba. Finley
was their big off-season signing and a big reason why their staff allowed
44 fewer runs than the previous year (moving up from 8th to 5th in the
league).
Cleveland cycled even more bodies through their bullpen, and the results
were slightly better (AL's 5th best bullpen ERA). Although the Tribe relievers
allowed only 31% of inherited runners to score (2nd best in AL), they
were shaky at the end of games, making good on only 57% of their save
opportunities (4th worst in AL).
Bartolo Colon, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 3.73 32 32 15 7 0 198 186 19 74 150 .250 .709
Prorated Cle 3.73 31 31 15 7 0 192 180 18 72 145 .250 .709
Actual Cle 3.88 30 30 15 8 0 188 163 21 98 212 .233 .701
Despite throwing his fewest innings in three years, the Indian's ace
struck out 51 more batters than his previous high set one year earlier.
Colon also walked opponents at his highest rate ever while holding them
to a career-low batting average. His lower inning total resulted from
an early-season trip to the DL, and he later removed himself from a September
start because he felt pain in his shoulder. Manuel was upset with Colon
for taking himself out at a crucial time in the season, when his performance
showed no ill effects of an injury (3-0, 1.94 ERA in September).
Chuck Finley, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 4.44 32 32 13 10 0 205 206 22 95 186 .264 .755
Prorated Cle 4.44 33 33 14 10 0 214 215 23 99 194 .264 .755
Actual Cle 4.17 34 34 16 11 0 218 211 23 101 189 .256 .729
Since becoming a starter in 1988, Finley has never had an ERA over 4.43
(1999), and it is this consistency that landed him a 3-year, $27 million
contract with Cleveland. He lived up to his end of the bargain, pitching
more than 200 quality innings for the tenth time in the last eleven years
(1994 innings extrapolated for a full season). Although he's getting up
there in years, Finley continues to be extremely durable, missing significant
time to injury only once as a starter (1997). This year, he finished in
the top 10 in several pitching categories and was especially good down
the stretch, going 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA in September. Finley may miss part
of April, 2001 due to off-season surgery to repair a knee injury sustained
while conditioning.
Dave Burba, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 4.50 32 32 13 10 0 206 208 28 86 152 .263 .767
Prorated Cle 4.50 30 30 12 9 0 195 197 27 81 144 .263 .767
Actual Cle 4.47 32 32 16 6 0 191 199 19 91 180 .267 .761
In his three years as an Indian, Burba has averaged 205 innings and 15
wins, but his ERA has increased each year. His strikeouts have also been
on the rise, setting a new career high this season, good enough for 7th
best in the league. Like Colon and Finley, Burba was great down the stretch
(4-0, 3.34 ERA in September), resulting in a combined 13-1 record with
a 2.88 ERA for Cleveland's top three starters in the final month.
Charles Nagy, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 5.24 32 32 12 12 0 206 239 28 64 124 .294 .816
Prorated Cle 5.24 10 10 4 4 0 61 71 8 19 37 .294 .816
Actual Cle 8.21 11 11 2 7 0 57 71 15 21 41 .300 .933
The 10th-winningest pitcher in Indians history failed to pitch 200 innings
for the first time in five years because of bone chips in his right elbow
that required surgery in May. When he did pitch, Nagy was shelled for
15 homers in only 57 innings (extrapolates to 53 homeruns in 200 innings)
which is by far his worst rate allowed. Cleveland tried to get three more
starts out of him in September, but Nagy had nothing left. They hope the
off-season allows him to regain arm strength and return to his reliable
self in 2001.
Jaret Wright, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 4.58 27 27 10 8 0 159 160 17 76 115 .264 .760
Prorated Cle 4.58 8 8 3 2 0 49 49 5 23 36 .264 .760
Actual Cle 4.70 9 9 3 4 0 52 44 6 28 36 .235 .754
Like Nagy, Wright was only able to contribute 50+ innings to the Tribe
because of arm problems. The young righty pitched well in his first seven
starts (3-2, 3.15 ERA) before straining a muscle in his right shoulder
in mid-May. He returned to get racked in two more starts before doctors
diagnosed the injury as a partially frayed labrum, requiring season-ending
arthroscopic surgery. If Wright returns to full strength in 2001, he will
be part of a rotation that may be second only to the Yankees in the AL.
Steve Woodard, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 4.49 32 32 12 12 0 213 232 25 43 158 .279 .765
Prorated Mil 4.49 15 15 6 6 0 103 112 12 21 76 .279 .765
Actual Mil 5.96 27 11 1 7 0 94 125 16 33 65 .325 .906
Prorated Cle 4.49 8 8 3 3 0 54 59 6 11 40 .279 .765
Actual Cle 5.67 13 11 3 3 0 54 57 10 11 35 .269 .800
Prorated Tot 4.49 24 24 9 9 0 156 171 18 32 116 .279 .765
Actual Tot 5.85 40 22 4 10 0 148 182 26 44 100 .305 .869
Milwaukee hoped Woodard would become their #1 starter, but his awful
performance coupled with the emergence of Jeff D'Amico made it easier
to trade the young pitcher to Cleveland for a young slugger (Sexson).
Woodard was better in Cleveland but still surrendered too many longballs.
The highlight of his season was being the first Indian to ever beat Pedro
Martinez, pitching six shutout innings in a key September game with huge
wild card implications. Woodard heads into the upcoming season as the
sixth starter and may make more starts if Nagy or Wright are not ready.
Jason Bere, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.94 27 27 6 10 0 126 146 17 80 92 .291 .859
Prorated Mil 5.94 23 23 5 9 0 109 127 15 69 80 .291 .859
Actual Mil 4.93 20 20 6 7 0 115 115 19 63 98 .264 .794
Prorated Cle 5.94 11 11 3 4 0 53 62 7 34 39 .291 .859
Actual Cle 6.63 11 11 6 3 0 54 65 6 26 44 .297 .820
Prorated Tot 5.94 35 35 8 13 0 162 189 22 103 119 .291 .859
Actual Tot 5.47 31 31 12 10 0 169 180 25 89 142 .275 .803
Bere came over to Cleveland with Woodard and Bob Wickman to give the
Indians some much needed pitching depth. Despite pitching worse as an
Indian, Bere was a winning pitcher thanks to the support of the AL's second
highest scoring offense. Bere made 30 starts for the first time in his
8-year career, which apparently impressed the Cubs enough to foolishly
give him almost three times as much money for next season.
Jim Brower, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 6.75 9 0 1 1 0 17 23 4 7 9 .324 .965
Prorated Cle 6.75 33 0 4 4 0 63 83 14 25 33 .324 .965
Actual Cle 6.24 17 11 2 3 0 62 80 11 31 32 .309 .873
Brower was one of several pitchers that attempted to fill the shoes of
Nagy and Wright, and, like most of the others, he failed. While he did
pitch slightly better than expected, he kept his fielders busy by putting
almost 2 runners on base per inning, and averaging less than 5 innings
per start didn't help Cleveland's bullpen. After the season, the Indians
traded Brower to Cincinnati (for Taubensee) where he will fight for a
spot in an inexperienced rotation.
Steve Reed, middle reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 3.73 70 0 7 3 3 99 94 13 35 74 .252 .731
Prorated Cle 3.73 41 0 4 2 2 57 54 8 20 43 .252 .731
Actual Cle 4.34 57 0 2 0 0 56 58 7 21 39 .269 .738
Reed was one of the best relievers in baseball before coming to Cleveland
in the middle of the 1998 season (3.35 career ERA -- impressive considering
84% of his innings were with Colorado). Since joining the Indians, he
has suffered a series of injuries including a blood clot in his right
wrist, a strep infection, and a sore right elbow. Perhaps arm injuries
were related to his poor first-half performance (6.04 ERA), but Reed picked
it up after the break (2.60 ERA) which has the Indians optimistic for
2001.
Tom Martin, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 6.78 53 0 2 5 0 66 92 11 33 53 .330 .940
Prorated Cle 6.78 24 0 1 2 0 30 41 5 15 24 .330 .940
Actual Cle 4.05 31 0 1 0 0 33 32 3 15 21 .254 .709
Coming off of shoulder surgery in 1999, there weren't high expectations
for Martin, and while he pitched well, he wasn't a key member of the staff.
With lefties Ricardo Rincon and Cam Cairncross already in the bullpen,
Martin was expendable, so the Indians recently traded him to the Mets.
Scott Kamieniecki, middle reliever, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 5.23 27 4 3 3 0 52 59 6 24 30 .291 .819
Prorated Cle 5.23 18 3 2 2 0 35 40 4 16 20 .291 .819
Actual Cle 5.67 26 0 1 3 0 33 42 6 20 29 .311 .930
Prorated Atl 5.23 13 2 1 1 0 25 29 3 12 15 .291 .819
Actual Atl 5.47 26 0 2 1 2 25 22 3 22 17 .239 .799
Prorated Tot 5.23 31 5 3 3 0 60 68 7 28 35 .291 .819
Actual Tot 5.59 52 0 3 4 2 58 64 9 42 46 .282 .876
The Indians signed Kamieniecki hoping he could add depth to the bullpen
as a long reliever. But putting two runners on base per inning didn't
keep him in many games too long, and Cleveland released Kamieniecki in
June. For some reason, the Braves signed him a week later, and, while
he gave up fewer hits, he walked almost one batter per inning. Kamieniecki
signed a minor league contract with the Yankees and will try to earn a
spot on the team with whom he spent his first six years in the majors.
Sean DePaula, middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 4.76 40 0 2 2 0 40 41 5 24 38 .270 .815
Prorated Cle 4.76 18 0 1 1 0 18 19 2 11 18 .270 .815
Actual Cle 5.94 13 0 0 0 0 17 20 3 14 16 .294 .866
In the 1999 ALDS, Manager Mike Hargrove was criticized for removing DePaula
after he shut down the Red Sox for three innings. Paul Shuey was brought
in, Troy O'Leary went deep, Boston completed their improbable comeback,
and Hargrove was fired. This year DePaula did not play much for his new
manager, and when he did, he had control problems and got smacked around
by the opposition. DePaula is young and still has a chance to contribute
to the 2001 Indians as a long reliever.
Justin Speier, long reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 6.19 11 0 1 1 0 16 21 4 9 13 .323 .977
Prorated Cle 6.19 41 0 4 4 0 60 79 15 34 49 .323 .977
Actual Cle 3.29 47 0 5 2 0 68 57 9 28 69 .226 .694
After poor performances in the previous two years, the Indians called
Speier up from the minors in late May, becoming the fourth team in three
years to give him a shot. He was outstanding in his first 25 innings (1.44
ERA, 32 strikeouts, and only 5 walks) but was only mediocre at best the
rest of the way. Speier was particularly unreliable in the late innings
of close games, allowing batters to hit .367 with 4 homeruns in only 49
atbats. He will need to pitch better in these situations to gain the confidence
of his manager and keep him employed with one team for more than a year.
Ricky Rincon, lefty specialist, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 3.53 70 0 5 2 1 74 66 9 33 61 .240 .715
Prorated Cle 3.53 20 0 1 1 0 21 19 3 9 17 .240 .715
Actual Cle 2.70 35 0 2 0 0 20 17 1 13 20 .224 .687
After the 1998 season, Cleveland gave Pittsburgh superstar-to-be Brian
Giles in return for Rincon, a situational reliever. Ouch! The deal looks
even more lopsided considering Rincon's disappointing 1999 season and
the fact that he missed half of 2000 due to bone spurs in his elbow (arthroscopic
surgery in June). When he did pitch, Rincon was tough on lefties as usual,
holding them to a .216 average, and he led the AL by only allowing 4%
of inherited runners to score. The Indians picked up Rincon's contract
option for 2002, suggesting they're not worried about his arm problems.
Paul Shuey, setup man, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 3.41 70 0 5 2 31 74 67 8 34 84 .244 .722
Prorated Cle 3.41 60 0 4 2 27 63 57 7 29 72 .244 .722
Actual Cle 3.39 57 0 4 2 0 64 51 4 30 69 .219 .626
Shuey was expected to finally assume the role of closer (the reason Cleveland
drafted him in 1992), but Steve Karsay won the job and Shuey remained
a setup man. Despite missing more than a month due to hip surgery, he
had a successful season which included a league-leading 28 holds. Shuey
kept the ball in the park, allowing homers at his lowest rate since becoming
a staple in the Indian bullpen in 1996. He will share setup duty with
Karsay in 2001.
Steve Karsay, closer/setup man, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 4.91 53 0 4 3 0 73 82 8 24 56 .286 .791
Prorated Cle 4.91 55 0 4 3 0 76 85 8 25 58 .286 .791
Actual Cle 3.76 72 0 5 9 20 77 79 5 25 66 .266 .701
Although he pitched better than expected, Karsay's first season as a
closer was rough, blowing a league-high 31% of his save opportunities
and allowing 46% of inherited runners to score (6th worst in the AL).
He hasn't handled pressure situations well over the last five years (batters
hit 25 points higher in the late innings of close games), so he may not
be cut out for late-inning relief. The acquisition of Wickman ended Karsay's
term as closer, and he will continue to setup Wickman in 2001.
Bob Wickman, closer, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 3.58 70 0 4 6 30 73 72 6 34 62 .262 .720
Prorated Mil 3.58 43 0 2 4 18 45 44 4 21 38 .262 .720
Actual Mil 2.93 43 0 2 2 16 46 37 1 20 44 .215 .572
Prorated Cle 3.58 26 0 1 2 11 27 26 2 12 23 .262 .720
Actual Cle 3.38 26 0 1 3 14 27 27 0 12 11 .270 .688
Prorated Tot 3.58 69 0 4 6 29 72 71 6 33 61 .262 .720
Actual Tot 3.10 69 0 3 5 30 73 64 1 32 55 .235 .615
The Indians acquired Wickman to provide much needed help at closer after
growing tired of watching Karsay blow so many saves. Wickman, a former
University of Wisconsin-Whitewater student, was enjoying a very good season
in Milwaukee when they traded him to Cleveland. As an Indian, Wickman
wasn't as good but was still slightly better than Karsay, so he will retain
the closer job in 2001.
The most impressive aspect of Wickman's season was that he only surrendered
one homer all year (career low) which resulted in opponents slugging only
.298. To put that in perspective, the amazing Pedro Martinez (.259) was
the only qualifying starting pitcher in baseball with an opponents' slugging
percentage under .300.
Outlook
Cleveland looks to build off of their strong second half and recapture
the division crown, but they'll have to do it without Manny Ramirez, one
of the most prolific run producers of the last six years. Losing the bidding
war to the Red Sox was the second biggest story of baseball's off-season
(A-Rod gets top billing), but the Indians feel they replaced a big chunk
of his offense by signing Ellis Burks and Juan Gonzalez. Cleveland committed
$17 million to two guys whose average age is five years older than Ramirez
and who had injury problems (Burks' knees and Gonzalez' back) that limited
their playing time last year. When he did play, Burks was outstanding,
and Gonzalez may benefit from leaving the worst homerun park for right-handed
hitters, but the jury is still out on how much the Indians offense might
suffer with these two replacing Justice and Ramirez.
If Nagy and Wright are healthy and return to form, the Indians have a
deep starting rotation that may be second in the league behind the Yankees.
Should Nagy or Wright not be ready or go down to injury, a full season
with Woodard as insurance makes them better equipped to handle the situation.
Likewise, a full season with Wickman improves their bullpen depth, although
a reliable closer has yet to emerge.
One concern is that the team isn't getting any younger. Russ Branyan
is the only member of the projected starting lineup who will be under
thirty on opening day, and two-thirds of their key pitchers have also
bid their twenties goodbye. GM John Hart was praised in the past for tying
up his young talent to long term contracts, but now it seems as if he
trades away one potential star per year for aging veterans. Sexson was
sacrificed last year and Branyan may be the next to go if Hart feels he's
one veteran away from winning it all. The end result is a bleak future
and an old team running out of time to bring Cleveland their first World
Series championship since 1948.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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