2000 Post-Season Review -- Colorado Rockies
By Tom Tippett
January 31, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Colorad Rockies did in the 2000
season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach
used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our
publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 1009 968
Runs allowed 1041 897
Run Margin -32 71
Wins 78 82
Pythagorean wins 79 87
Placement 4th 4th
Last spring, I wrote: "This is a very interesting team. Two years
ago [1998], we projected the Rockies to win 77 games, they won 77 games,
and a highly-respected manager (Don Baylor) was fired for failing to live
up to expectations. Last spring [1999], we projected them to win 79 games,
they won 72, and another highly-respected manager (Jim Leyland) resigned
in frustration. This winter, ownership decided the problem was higher
in the organization and brought in a new GM (Dan O'Dowd) who promptly
turned over half the roster."
I liked the changes they had made -- replacing a few aging veterans (Dante
Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Ellis Burks) with younger, faster athletes --
and I picked the Rockies as the NL team most likely to surprise. For a
while, it looked like that might happen. The Rockies woke up on the morning
of July 4th with the division lead and a 45-33 record. But they were swept
by the Giants in a holiday double-header that day and proceeded to lose
eleven straight games. They made a bit of a run in August, but the Giants
were red hot and running away with the division by then.
Still, it was a marked improvement from their disappointing 1999 campaign.
A breakout season from Todd Helton helped Colorado lead the league in
scoring in spite of Larry Walker's absence and power shortage. But the
real story was on the other side of the ball. The Rockies allowed 131
fewer runs than they had the year before, and the upgraded defense deserves
at least some of the credit for that.
Special Note on Park Effects
In the past couple of years, a few Rockies fans have written to me to
express their frustration over our repeated references to the effects
of Coors Field. They don't like it when we say things like "he batted
.320, but the park gets most of the credit."
But there's no way you can ignore such a powerful force. Last year, excluding
inter-league games, there were 1063 runs scored at Coors and 643 in Colorado's
road games. In other words, the same batters and pitchers produced 14.1
runs per game at home and 8.6 on the road. Batting averages were sixty-five
points higher at home. There were 101 more homers at home than on the
road. If you don't take this into account, you'd have to conclude that
the club is stocked with great hitters and lousy pitchers, when the opposite
is much closer to the truth.
While it's clear that you can't take the stats of Rockies players at
face value, it's not as easy to figure out how much different those stats
would be in a neutral setting? So here are a few rules of thumb. The park
increases batting averages by 60-70 points, but they only play half the
games there, so take 30-35 points off all batting averages. Coors Field
also adds doubles, triples and homers, so take 70-80 points off all slugging
averages. As a result, it increases scoring by five to six runs per game,
but (a) that includes both teams, (b) they only play half their games
at home, and (c) some of those runs are unearned, so take about 1.25 off
the ERA of any Rockies pitcher. Those adjusted figures give you a better
handle on who's helping and who's hurting the team.
Key Position Players
The Rockies led the league in scoring, but not by as much as we projected.
Todd Helton was incredibly good, but that's about it for positives. Larry
Walker missed half the season and didn't hit for power the other half.
Jeffrey Hammonds played well but missed forty games. Mike Lansing disappointed,
though Todd Walker helped recoup some of those losses with a strong finish.
Jeff Cirillo was awesome at home but horrible on the road. The catching
corps didn't contribute much. The center fielders (Tom Goodwin, Brian
Hunter) were a liability at the plate, but that was no surprise.
This was a team with one great hitter who had a great year (Helton),
one great hitter who had a disappointing year (Walker), one pretty good
hitter who missed a quarter of the season (Hammonds) and another who had
an off year (Cirillo), plus a bunch of slap hitters whose faults were
disguised by some altitude-inflated batting averages. In other words,
it was not a good hitting team. In road games, for instance, the Rockies
were 15th in the league in scoring.
Brent Mayne, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 491 157 43 0 6 65 65 6 62 6 84 2 1 .320 .400 .444 .844 87
Prorated Col 343 110 30 0 4 45 45 4 43 4 59 1 1 .320 .400 .444 .844 61
Actual Col 335 101 21 0 6 36 64 1 47 13 48 1 3 .301 .381 .418 .799 53
Mayne has settled into his role as the left-handed bat in a catching
platoon. He is solid behind the plate and has hit a point over .300 for
two straight years. He takes his share of walks, too, though he's never
contributed much power -- only 26 career homers in 2400 atbats.
Scott Servais, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 85 23 5 0 2 11 11 1 6 1 12 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 10
Prorated Col 101 27 6 0 2 13 13 1 7 1 14 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 12
Actual Col 101 22 4 0 1 6 13 1 7 2 16 0 1 .218 .273 .287 .560 8
Prorated SF 9 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 1
Actual SF 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 .250 .400 .250 .650 1
Prorated Tot 110 30 6 0 3 14 14 1 8 1 15 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 14
Actual Tot 109 24 4 0 1 7 13 1 9 3 17 0 1 .220 .283 .284 .568 9
Servais's projected role as Mayne's platoon partner was waylaid by two
stints on the DL that totalled eight weeks. The injuries -- a sprained
ankle and a strained calf muscle -- won't threaten his career, but his
performance at the plate might. Colorado sent him to AAA when he was activated
the second time, then traded him to the Giants two weeks later. San Francisco
didn't keep him, either, and he'll be in camp with the Tigers after signing
a minor-league contract with that club.
Ben Petrick, c, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 65 17 3 0 4 12 13 0 9 0 13 2 1 .262 .347 .492 .839 11
Prorated Col 150 39 7 0 9 28 30 0 21 0 30 5 2 .262 .347 .492 .839 26
Actual Col 146 47 10 1 3 32 20 2 20 2 33 1 2 .322 .401 .466 .867 29
The future. Petrick has impressed in the high minors -- .313 plus 28
homers in 530 atbats with AAA Colorado Springs -- and in his first two
shots at the big leagues. With the Rockies, he boasts a 'career' average
of .322 and on-base percentage of .406 while showing a modest amount of
power. Even if you discount his stats for the effects of altitude, it's
still a good start for a player who won't turn 24 until April.
Like many young catchers, he was tested early and often by enemy baserunners
who stole 26 bases in 33 tries for an 81% success rate. But he's nimble
behind the plate and his bat will earn him every opportunity to develop
his other catching skills.
Todd Helton, 1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 561 174 39 4 25 100 104 5 65 5 77 5 4 .310 .384 .528 .912 113
Prorated Col 616 191 43 4 27 110 114 5 71 5 85 5 4 .310 .384 .528 .912 124
Actual Col 580 216 59 2 42 138 147 4 103 22 61 5 3 .372 .463 .698 1.162 192
For the third straight season, the NL batting champion hailed from Colorado.
Larry Walker, who won in both 1998 and 1999, passed the baton to Todd
Helton last year, and boy did Helton run with it. A torrid May (.512 with
11 homers) vaulted him well over .400, and he flirted with that magic
number for another three months before fading a little in September.
Lest you think that his home park was doing all the work, consider that
he also batted .353 with a .441 OBP and a slugging average of .633 on
the road. He led the majors in extra-base hits. A lefty batter, he was
better against righties but still had an OBP of .451 and slugged .594
against left-handed pitchers. Amazingly, he was even better with runners
in scoring position and in the late innings of close games.
And he played great defense, deserving the Gold Glove that was mistakenly
and reflexively awarded to J.T. Snow. In short, there was nothing he didn't
do last year, and it makes you wonder if there's anything he won't do
in the future.
Mike Lansing, 2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 617 182 42 1 19 92 77 4 48 2 99 10 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 97
Prorated Col 364 107 25 1 11 54 45 2 28 1 58 6 1 .295 .348 .459 .807 57
Actual Col 365 94 14 6 11 62 47 0 31 1 49 8 2 .258 .315 .419 .734 46
Prorated Bos 135 40 9 0 4 20 17 1 10 0 22 2 0 .295 .348 .459 .807 21
Actual Bos 139 27 4 0 0 10 13 0 7 1 26 0 0 .194 .230 .223 .453 6
Prorated Tot 499 147 34 1 15 74 62 3 39 2 80 8 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 79
Actual Tot 504 121 18 6 11 72 60 0 38 2 75 8 2 .240 .292 .365 .657 50
Lansing hit 20 homers for the Expos in 1997, and when he signed with
Colorado the next year, I figured he'd put up very big numbers there.
But his back began to give him problems in his first spring with the Rockies,
and he began to experience hip and leg problems as he tried to compensate
for his back. He slumped in 1998, then managed only 145 atbats in 1999
between back-related trips to the disabled list. He missed a few more
games with back pain last year, and he didn't hit anywhere but in Coors
Field. His road stats with the Rockies were awful, and he didn't hit at
all after the Red Sox agreed to take his $6.5 million salary as part of
the Rolando Arrojo deal. If not for that big contract, Lansing might have
run out of chances, but the Sox will give him one last shot this year,
the final year of that deal.
Todd Walker, 2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 592 169 37 3 12 82 63 2 59 6 83 18 9 .285 .351 .419 .770 85
Prorated Min 79 22 5 0 2 11 8 0 8 1 11 2 1 .285 .351 .419 .770 11
Actual Min 77 18 1 0 2 14 8 0 7 0 10 3 0 .234 .287 .325 .612 8
Prorated Col 177 50 11 1 4 25 19 1 18 2 25 5 3 .285 .351 .419 .770 26
Actual Col 171 54 10 4 7 28 36 1 20 0 19 4 1 .316 .385 .544 .928 38
Prorated Tot 255 73 16 1 5 35 27 1 25 3 36 8 4 .285 .351 .419 .770 37
Actual Tot 248 72 11 4 9 42 44 1 27 0 29 7 1 .290 .355 .476 .830 44
Walker looked like a star in the making when be batted .316 as a 25-year-old
in 1998, but he played himself into manager Tom Kelly's doghouse in 1999
and his slow start last year earned him a trip back to AAA in early May.
He got his average back over .300 in the minors, but the Twins didn't
seem overly impressed. Two months later, they dealt him and Butch Huskey
to the Rockies for a minor-leaguer and some cash.
With the Rockies, he beat out newly-acquired Jeff Frye for the starting
2B job that had once been Lansing's, and he responded with a surprising
burst of power, mostly at home. He was a league-average hitter on the
road, before and after the trade. Nevertheless, it looks like his job
to lose going into this season, even though his range and hands are both
subpar.
Jeff Frye, 2b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 68 20 4 0 1 9 8 0 6 0 7 2 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 9
Prorated Bos 248 73 15 0 4 33 29 0 22 0 25 7 4 .294 .347 .397 .744 34
Actual Bos 239 69 13 0 1 35 13 1 28 0 38 1 3 .289 .364 .356 .720 32
Prorated Col 89 26 5 0 1 12 10 0 8 0 9 3 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 12
Actual Col 87 31 6 0 0 14 3 1 8 0 16 4 0 .356 .412 .425 .838 16
Prorated Tot 336 99 20 0 5 45 40 0 30 0 35 10 5 .294 .347 .397 .744 46
Actual Tot 326 100 19 0 1 49 16 2 36 0 54 5 3 .307 .377 .374 .751 47
Frye must have thought that his prayers had finally been answered when
he was traded to the Rockies. After finally becoming a starter for the
Red Sox in 1997, Frye lost almost all of the next two seasons to a pair
of knee injuries, then found himself behind Jose Offerman on the Sox depth
chart. Thanks to Offerman's own injury problems, Frye played a lot for
Boston this year, but it was clear that the club didn't view Frye as the
long-term answer.
With Lansing coming east in the trade, Frye had to figure he was about
to become the everyday 2B for the Rockies. But he wound up sharing the
job with Walker for a while, and then found that his share of the job
began shrinking. Frye didn't play himself out of the lineup -- he continued
to play good defense and get on base -- but Walker got very hot about
three weeks after Frye arrived. After the season, Frye signed a one-year
deal with the Blue Jays.
Jeff Cirillo, 3b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 546 190 34 1 18 98 84 5 69 2 79 5 3 .348 .423 .513 .936 119
Prorated Col 596 207 37 1 20 107 92 5 75 2 86 5 3 .348 .423 .513 .936 130
Actual Col 598 195 53 2 11 111 115 6 67 4 72 3 4 .326 .392 .477 .869 111
Cirillo was my pre-season hunch pick to win the NL batting title because
he had batted over .320 in each of his last two years in Milwaukee and
figured to pick up another 30 points or so with the move to Coors Field.
Well, he picked up a lot more than that, batting .403 in his home games.
But he hit like a third-string catcher on the road -- .239 with 2 homeruns
-- and that left him with season totals that were almost identical to
his line with the Brewers the year before.
Extreme home/road splits like this have led a few baseball writers to
speculate that the Coors Field park factors are exaggerated. They argue
that it may be difficult to adjust to normal conditions when the team
goes on the road, so the road stats are depressed, making the home park
look that much better by comparison. I'm not ready to buy that theory,
but Cirillo may be based on his first season in Colorado.
Aaron Ledesma, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 85 28 5 0 1 11 10 1 5 0 12 1 1 .329 .374 .424 .797 13
Prorated Col 40 13 2 0 0 5 5 0 2 0 6 0 0 .329 .374 .424 .797 6
Actual Col 40 9 2 0 0 4 3 1 2 0 9 0 0 .225 .279 .275 .554 3
Despite a career batting average of .300, Ledesma entered the 2000 season
as a 28-year-old with only 714 career atbats under his belt. The reason?
Once you get past his batting average, there's not a lot there. He doesn't
walk much, has almost no power, and doesn't run especially well. Nevertheless,
he is a versatile defender who can play every infield position, and the
Dodgers have signed him for 2001.
Jeff Manto, 3b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 62 17 3 0 5 13 13 0 13 0 15 0 0 .274 .400 .565 .965 15
Prorated Col 6 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 .274 .400 .565 .965 1
Actual Col 5 4 2 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 .800 .857 1.800 2.657 8
Manto, who retired after the season, had a long and distinguished career,
but most of it was in the high minors. He bounced around the majors for
a decade but amassed only 713 career atbats.
If the movie Bull Durham was being shot today, they might name
the lead character Jeff Manto. From 1997 to 1999, Manto swatted 66 (!)
homeruns in 599 atbats with AAA Buffalo, and he wound up his minor-league
career with 243 career homers. He added 31 more at the big-league level
and undoubtedly would have received more playing time if not for his .230
career average.
Neifi Perez, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 524 148 23 7 10 80 57 1 32 1 56 7 5 .282 .323 .410 .734 70
Prorated Col 644 182 28 9 12 98 70 1 39 1 69 9 6 .282 .323 .410 .734 86
Actual Col 651 187 39 11 10 92 71 0 30 6 63 3 6 .287 .314 .427 .741 85
In his third season as the Rockies starting SS, Perez took home his first
Gold Glove award. He needs to take a couple of big steps forward at the
plate before he can be considered one of the top all-around shortstops
in the league. Even with the help of the best hitter's park in baseball,
his career OPS at home (.798) has been only a little above the league
average, and his road output (.629) has been downright awful.
Todd Hollandsworth, lf/rf/cf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 243 66 12 2 6 35 30 1 22 1 54 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 34
Prorated LA 266 72 13 2 7 38 33 1 24 1 59 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 37
Actual LA 261 61 12 0 8 42 24 1 30 2 61 11 4 .234 .314 .372 .686 32
Prorated Col 161 44 8 1 4 23 20 1 15 1 36 3 2 .272 .333 .412 .745 22
Actual Col 167 54 8 0 11 39 23 0 11 1 38 7 3 .323 .365 .569 .934 33
Prorated Tot 427 116 21 4 11 62 53 2 39 2 95 9 5 .272 .333 .412 .745 60
Actual Tot 428 115 20 0 19 81 47 1 41 3 99 18 7 .269 .333 .449 .782 64
Like Todd Walker, Hollandsworth struggled early in the year then surged
after being traded to Colorado. Unlike Walker, this Todd hit equally well
at home and on the road for the Rockies. That probably doesn't mean much,
since it represents only 77 atbats on the road.
What likely means a lot more is the fact that the left-handed batting
Hollandsworth rarely faces southpaws -- only 195 atbats in the past five
years compared with 1443 against right-handers -- and was very ineffective
against them last year. As a result of those recent struggles, it's not
clear whether he'll get a shot at a full-time role even though his career
totals show virtually no difference in his OPS against lefties and righties.
Butch Huskey, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 591 164 28 0 28 85 107 1 49 3 98 6 5 .277 .331 .467 .798 87
Prorated Min 223 62 11 0 11 32 40 0 19 1 37 2 2 .277 .331 .467 .798 33
Actual Min 215 48 13 0 5 22 27 2 25 1 49 0 2 .223 .306 .353 .660 23
Prorated Col 101 28 5 0 5 15 18 0 8 1 17 1 1 .277 .331 .467 .798 15
Actual Col 92 32 8 0 4 18 18 0 16 1 14 1 1 .348 .432 .565 .998 22
Prorated Tot 325 90 15 0 15 47 59 1 27 2 54 3 3 .277 .331 .467 .798 48
Actual Tot 307 80 21 0 9 40 45 2 41 2 63 1 3 .261 .346 .417 .762 44
Huskey is best known for his bat, but his career averages are right around
the league averages. That doesn't bode well for his future, because he's
not regarded as a good fielder. He'll be in camp with the Indians this
spring, where he'll face a lot of competition in the outfield and at DH,
so he's likely to be in a reserve role again.
Terry Shumpert, lf/2b/3b/ss/1b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 87 26 7 0 3 15 11 1 9 1 14 3 1 .299 .367 .483 .850 16
Prorated Col 264 79 21 0 9 45 33 3 27 3 42 9 3 .299 .367 .483 .850 49
Actual Col 263 68 11 7 9 52 40 6 28 1 40 8 4 .259 .340 .456 .796 43
After a big 1999 -- .347 with 10 homers in about a half season -- Shumpert
came back to earth last year. Again, Coors Field was a big part of the
story, as Shumpert batted .308 at home but only .211 on the road, and
seven of his nine homers came at altitude.
Darren Bragg, lf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 87 25 5 1 2 13 11 1 11 0 19 1 0 .287 .374 .437 .811 15
Prorated Col 147 42 8 2 3 22 19 2 19 0 32 2 0 .287 .374 .437 .811 25
Actual Col 149 33 7 1 3 16 21 0 17 1 41 4 1 .221 .296 .342 .638 16
At his peak, Bragg was a scrappy, hustling player who provided above-average
defense and enough offense to be a good fourth outfielder and occasional
starter. But he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee
in August of 1999 and hasn't yet shown that he can return to that level.
He'll be in camp with the Mets next month, and even though they don't
have a strong outfield, Bragg isn't likely to wind up with more than a
reserve role on that team, if he makes the club at all.
Tom Goodwin, cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 585 173 22 8 7 105 49 2 69 0 97 47 17 .296 .370 .397 .767 93
Prorated Col 330 97 12 5 4 59 28 1 39 0 55 26 10 .296 .370 .397 .767 52
Actual Col 317 86 8 8 5 65 47 1 50 2 76 39 7 .271 .368 .394 .763 55
Prorated LA 200 59 8 3 2 36 17 1 24 0 33 16 6 .296 .370 .397 .767 32
Actual LA 211 53 3 1 1 29 11 0 18 0 41 16 3 .251 .310 .289 .599 21
Prorated Tot 530 157 20 7 6 95 44 2 63 0 88 43 15 .296 .370 .397 .767 84
Actual Tot 528 139 11 9 6 94 58 1 68 2 117 55 10 .263 .346 .352 .698 75
Well, he did steal a lot of bases. But that's about it. Goodwin has tremendous
speed but has never been able to deploy it fully. He doesn't get a good
jump on defense, so his range isn't anything special despite his ability
to outrun the ball. And he's shown patience at the plate in only one of
his ten big-league seasons -- 1998 with Texas -- so he doesn't get to
use his legs on the bases as much as he should, either.
Why the Dodgers would give up Hollandsworth for this guy is beyond me.
They must believe that raw speed automatically makes someone a great center
fielder and leadoff hitter. They need both, but Goodwin is neither.
Brian L. Hunter, cf/lf/rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 70 17 3 0 1 9 5 0 5 0 11 5 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 7
Prorated Col 211 51 9 0 3 27 15 0 15 0 33 15 3 .243 .293 .329 .622 22
Actual Col 200 55 4 1 1 36 13 1 21 0 31 15 3 .275 .347 .320 .667 25
Prorated Cin 45 11 2 0 1 6 3 0 3 0 7 3 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 5
Actual Cin 40 9 1 0 0 11 1 0 6 0 9 5 0 .225 .319 .250 .569 5
Prorated Tot 256 62 11 0 4 33 18 0 18 0 40 18 4 .243 .293 .329 .622 26
Actual Tot 240 64 5 1 1 47 14 1 27 0 40 20 3 .267 .342 .308 .650 30
I could save some time by cutting-and-pasting my remarks about Tom Goodwin
into this slot, but it wouldn't quite be accurate. It's true that Hunter
shares Goodwin's inability to get on base enough to use his speed, but
Hunter is actually worse than Goodwin at the plate. Hunter has had some
very good years on defense, but last year wasn't one of them. The Phillies
signed him to a one-year deal for 2001, though I have no idea where he's
going to play in an outfield that already features Pat Burrell, Doug Glanville,
and Bob Abreu.
Juan Pierre, cf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Col 200 62 2 0 0 26 20 1 13 0 15 7 6 .310 .353 .320 .673 23
Pierre, who hadn't played above A ball going into the season, inherited
the center field job when Goodwin and Hunter failed at the plate and were
traded away. His major-league batting line has the same basic shape as
his minor-league one -- high batting average (never below .320 in the
minors), not too many walks, and almost no power (one homer in 1305 atbats).
Pierre averaged 70 steals per 600 atbats in the minors, so you can expect
him to steal a bunch of bases once he learns the pitchers and catchers.
Jeffrey Hammonds, rf/lf/cf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 545 170 32 3 30 109 93 4 64 1 118 12 8 .312 .386 .547 .933 117
Prorated Col 449 140 26 2 25 90 77 3 53 1 97 10 7 .312 .386 .547 .933 96
Actual Col 454 152 24 2 20 94 106 5 44 4 83 14 7 .335 .395 .529 .924 94
Once again, Hammonds was bitten by the injury bug. This was, in fact,
his high-water mark for playing time; he'd never made it to 400 atbats
before. The medical chart for 2000 includes entries for his hamstring
(strained), left shoulder, root canal, flu, neck (stiff), and right shoulder
(tendinitis). Hammonds brings a well-rounded game to the park when he's
healthy, and Milwaukee has invested $21.75 million over the next three
seasons in the hope that he'll pull a Paul Molitor and become an iron
man in his thirties.
Larry Walker, rf/lf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 571 201 45 4 35 135 117 11 79 8 82 16 5 .352 .438 .629 1.066 160
Prorated Col 319 112 25 2 20 76 65 6 44 4 46 9 3 .352 .438 .629 1.066 89
Actual Col 314 97 21 7 9 64 51 9 46 4 40 5 5 .309 .409 .506 .915 64
A .300/.400/.500 season is normally very good news, but not when you're
Larry Walker and you've become accustomed to something more like .360/.450/.700.
But Walker's left knee had bothered him for most of the 1999 season and
he had arthroscopic surgery on the joint in September of that year. And
then he was plagued by a stress fracture in his throwing elbow for much
of the 2000 season. That injury forced him to move from RF to LF (shorter
throws), took away most of his power, and ended his season six weeks early.
When Walker had surgery to remove a bone spur and clean out some debris,
it was the second time in 2-1/2 years that he'd had the elbow cleaned
out.
Key Pitchers
The Colorado pitching staff was considerably better than expected, allowing
131 fewer runs than they had the year before. The starting rotation was
steady but unspectacular. Pedro Astacio and Rolando Arrojo were solid,
Brian Bohanon had a nice comeback season, and several others -- Kevin
Jarvis, Brian Rose, Julian Tavarez -- provided some quality starts.
But the real story was the bullpen. Adjust their relief ERA for the effects
of the home park and it's clear that there was no better relief corps
in the majors last year. Mike DeJean provided some good innings, Mike
Myers and Gabe White were almost unhittable, Bobby Chouinard came on to
pitch well in the second half, and Jose Jimenez made a very successful
debut as the closer.
Pedro Astacio, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.24 32 32 13 13 0 218 245 33 74 198 .285 .814
Prorated Col 5.24 29 29 12 12 0 199 223 30 67 180 .285 .814
Actual Col 5.27 32 32 12 9 0 196 217 32 77 193 .281 .830
Astacio's season began under the cloud of a domestic violence charge
that fueled speculation that he might be deported. Despite that potential
distraction and a couple of little injuries that cost him a start here
and there, Astacio took his regular turn and delivered another solid season.
He's been a model of consistency for eight years, averaging about 200
innings per full season and -- adjusting for his home parks -- posting
a string of above-average performances.
Rolando Arrojo, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.15 32 32 8 14 0 183 222 29 74 151 .303 .877
Prorated Col 6.15 18 18 5 8 0 103 125 16 42 85 .303 .877
Actual Col 6.04 19 19 5 9 0 101 120 14 46 80 .299 .874
Prorated Bos 6.15 12 12 3 5 0 66 80 10 27 55 .303 .877
Actual Bos 5.05 13 13 5 2 0 71 67 10 22 44 .245 .730
Prorated Tot 6.15 30 30 7 13 0 170 206 27 69 140 .303 .877
Actual Tot 5.63 32 32 10 11 0 173 187 24 68 124 .277 .816
Arrojo's stay in Colorado was brief. Acquired from Tampa Bay in a four-team
trade in December, 1999, Arrojo was shipped off to Boston at the trading
deadline. In return, the Rockies acquired two younger pitchers, Brian
Rose and John Wasdin. Seems like a good trade for both teams -- the Sox
had run out of patience with Rose, but he's still young and has a chance
to give the Rockies as much or more than Arrojo would have.
Brian Bohanon, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.43 32 32 10 13 0 199 224 27 89 140 .287 .827
Prorated Col 5.43 28 28 9 11 0 171 193 23 77 121 .287 .827
Actual Col 4.68 34 26 12 10 0 177 181 24 79 98 .266 .776
Bohanon bounced back nicely from a disappointing 1999 season, his first
in Colorado after working in some pitcher-friendly parks the previous
two years. This southpaw dominated opposing left-handed batters (.196
average, .604 OPS) and kept the ball on the ground. The Rockies appear
to be stockpiling groundball pitchers in the hopes of countering the effects
of their home park, and Bohanon fits that mold.
Masato Yoshii, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.73 32 32 8 14 0 183 227 37 68 124 .305 .916
Prorated Col 6.73 28 28 7 12 0 160 198 32 59 108 .305 .916
Actual Col 5.86 29 29 6 15 0 167 201 32 53 88 .306 .893
A flyball pitcher who saw 22 of those fly balls leave the spacious confines
of Coors Field in 99 innings at home, Yoshii saw his ERA rise by about
a run and a half compared to his two seasons with the Mets. Next year
is a bit of a question mark, as Yoshii had surgery to remove bone spurs
from his elbow. If he can bounce back as well as Bohanon did, the Rockies
will be very happy. But Bohanon was coming off a bad season, so a rebound
was quite possible regardless of health, while Yoshii's 2000 season was
very consistent with his established level. As a result, I don't see as
much potential for improvement.
Scott Karl, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.73 19 19 5 8 0 107 146 16 40 58 .329 .896
Prorated Col 6.73 12 12 3 5 0 69 94 10 26 37 .329 .896
Actual Col 7.68 17 9 2 3 0 66 95 14 33 29 .343 .985
Prorated Ana 6.73 4 4 1 2 0 23 31 3 9 12 .329 .896
Actual Ana 6.65 6 4 2 2 0 22 31 2 12 9 .337 .903
Prorated Tot 6.73 16 16 4 7 0 92 125 14 34 50 .329 .896
Actual Tot 7.42 23 13 4 5 0 87 126 16 45 38 .341 .964
It's not clear why the Rockies thought Karl would succeed at Coors Field.
This lefty put a LOT of runners on base during his five years in Milwaukee,
but managed to wriggle out of enough of those jams to keep his ERA near
the league average. That's much harder to do in Denver's high-octane environment,
and sure enough, he was rocked in his home games. Colorado released him,
but he didn't far any better in a few starts with Anaheim, and he'll try
again with San Diego this year.
Kevin Jarvis, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 10.06 9 0 0 1 0 17 26 5 6 11 .356 1.058
Prorated Col 10.06 56 0 0 6 0 106 162 31 37 69 .356 1.058
Actual Col 5.95 24 19 3 4 0 115 138 26 33 60 .300 .912
You can pretty much ignore Jarvis's projected stats because they're meaningless.
He had missed all of 1998 and most of 1999 with a blood clot in his finger,
so the projection was based on 68 bad innings in 1997 and 14 innings that
were even worse in 1999. In other words, we had no idea whether he'd ever
pitch again and, if he did, how well.
Truth is, I still don't know what to make of his chances. He pitched
reasonably well for the Rockies, considering the park, but he missed over
a month with a back problem, and that's never a good sign. He'll be in
camp with the Padres this spring.
Brian Rose, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 5.73 11 11 3 4 0 60 69 11 19 34 .290 .844
Prorated Bos 5.73 10 10 3 4 0 54 62 10 17 31 .290 .844
Actual Bos 6.11 15 12 3 5 0 53 58 11 21 24 .274 .863
Prorated Col 5.73 12 12 3 4 0 66 77 12 21 38 .290 .844
Actual Col 5.51 12 12 4 5 0 64 72 10 30 40 .282 .809
Prorated Tot 5.73 22 22 6 8 0 120 139 22 38 69 .290 .844
Actual Tot 5.79 27 24 7 10 0 117 130 21 51 64 .278 .834
Rose became known as a top prospect with a terrific AAA season (17-5,
3.02 ERA in a good park for hitters) as a 21-year-old in 1997. He has
yet to taste much success in the big leagues, however, and Colorado was
able to pick him up in the Arrojo trade. Despite some good starts with
Colorado, it remains to be seen whether Rose -- a flyball pitcher without
overpowering stuff -- can succeed in this environment.
Julian Tavarez, reliever/starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.82 30 0 2 2 0 39 52 5 16 23 .329 .896
Prorated Col 5.82 88 0 6 6 0 114 153 15 47 68 .329 .896
Actual Col 4.43 51 12 11 5 1 120 124 11 53 62 .268 .770
Tavarez, who had made only 12 career starts through 1999, was 'better'
as a starter (3.80) than as a reliever (5.26) in 2000, but that probably
has more to do with his opponents than his own performance. All twelve
of his starts were against teams that finished 8th or worse in team offense,
including two starts each against Philadelphia and Florida, the league's
worst lineups.
So it's fair to say that he wasn't quite as good as his record suggests,
but it would be wrong to dismiss his performance altogether. Tavarez was
11-5 overall and posted an impressive ERA of 3.96 in Coors Field, so he
was doing something right. Nevertheless, he is now a proud member of the
Chicago Cubs, with whom he recently signed a two-year, $5 million contract.
John Wasdin, reliever/spot starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bos 3.89 40 0 4 3 0 72 70 11 22 49 .256 .752
Prorated Bos 3.89 26 0 3 2 0 47 46 7 15 32 .256 .752
Actual Bos 5.04 25 1 1 3 1 45 48 8 15 36 .273 .828
Prorated Col 3.89 21 0 2 2 0 37 36 6 11 25 .256 .752
Actual Col 5.80 14 3 0 3 0 36 42 6 9 35 .302 .842
Prorated Tot 3.89 47 0 5 4 0 84 82 13 26 57 .256 .752
Actual Tot 5.38 39 4 1 6 1 80 90 14 24 71 .286 .834
Wasdin has always had a lot of trouble with the longball, so he seems
like the world's worst candidate for a spot on the Rockies pitching staff.
But he's still young and has never put a lot of runners on base, so he
still has a chance to have a decent career as a long reliever.
Stan Belinda, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.20 40 0 3 3 0 54 59 11 22 55 .280 .860
Prorated Col 5.20 28 0 2 2 0 37 41 8 15 38 .280 .860
Actual Col 7.07 46 0 1 3 1 36 39 10 17 40 .277 .961
Prorated Atl 5.20 9 0 1 1 0 12 13 2 5 12 .280 .860
Actual Atl 9.82 10 0 0 0 0 11 16 4 5 11 .348 1.168
Prorated Tot 5.20 37 0 3 3 0 49 54 10 20 50 .280 .860
Actual Tot 7.71 56 0 1 3 1 47 55 14 22 51 .294 1.012
Unfortunately, this may be the end of the road for Belinda. Two years
ago, he was diagnosed as being in the early stages of multiple sclerosis,
and he's waged a courageous battle to prolong his career in the face of
that illness. Colorado released him in late July, and when Belinda didn't
fare any better with Atlanta, he left the team in early September to return
home and ponder his retirement. As far as I know, he hasn't formally announced
his retirement, but he hasn't signed with anyone for the coming season,
either.
Bobby Chouinard, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Col 3.86 31 0 2 2 0 33 35 4 9 23 .273 .730
Chouinard was charged with aggravated assault after pointing a gun at
his wife in an argument on Christmas day, 1999. Before that, he had pitched
quite well for the division-winning Diamondbacks, but that club didn't
seem to want him back after his brush with the law, and Chouinard requested
(and was granted) his release last spring so he could focus on his personal
issues.
I wasn't sure we would see him at all last season, but he signed a minor-league
deal with the Rockies in June, was called up in mid-July, and did a very
nice job out of the pen. In October, he pled guilty to the assault charge
and will serve his one-year sentence three months at a time during the
next four off-seasons. I'm assuming that this arrangement will allow him
to pursue his career without any negative effect.
Mike DeJean, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.40 13 0 1 1 0 17 22 2 7 9 .324 .890
Prorated Col 5.40 39 0 3 3 0 50 66 6 21 27 .324 .890
Actual Col 4.89 54 0 4 4 0 53 54 9 30 34 .269 .835
After two sensational years out of the Rockies bullpen in 1997-98, DeJean's
ERA shot up to 8.41 in 1999. So it was hard to know what to expect last
year. He managed to cut his hits and homers allowed to a reasonable level,
but he has now struggled with his control for two straight years. For
the second year in a row, DeJean was 0-for-4 in save situations, dropping
him to 4-for-15 in his career, so I don't expect to see him get too many
more chances to close games. Still, he was a very effective member of
a strong bullpen.
Jerry Dipoto, reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 4.14 70 0 4 3 26 72 75 8 31 59 .270 .766
Prorated Col 4.14 13 0 1 1 5 13 14 1 6 11 .270 .766
Actual Col 3.95 17 0 0 0 0 14 16 1 5 9 .314 .813
Expected to be the Rockies closer, Dipoto began the year on the disabled
list with a bulging disk in his neck. He came back to pitch reasonably
well despite the injury, but it hadn't really healed, and he was forced
to the sidelines within a few weeks. His season ended when he had surgery
on that disk in early May.
Mike Myers, reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.25 70 0 2 3 0 45 57 10 20 42 .311 .923
Prorated Col 6.25 59 0 2 3 0 38 48 8 17 35 .311 .923
Actual Col 1.99 78 0 0 1 1 45 24 2 24 41 .160 .551
The prototypical lefty specialist, Myers has always been near the league
lead in appearances and far down the list in innings pitched, facing fewer
than three batters per game in his career. His job is to get left-handed
hitters out, and he has always been very good at it. But he was exceptional
last year, holding enemy lefties to a .121 batting average and a .209
slugging average. Right-handed batters normally hit him pretty hard, but
even they couldn't get to him this time around. As a result, Myers allowed
only 9 of 64 inherited runners to score, the second-best rate in the league.
Gabe White, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.12 53 0 4 3 0 74 77 13 20 61 .266 .779
Prorated Cin 4.12 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 .266 .779
Actual Cin 18.00 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 .400 1.500
Prorated Col 4.12 54 0 4 3 0 76 78 13 20 62 .266 .779
Actual Col 2.17 67 0 11 2 5 83 62 5 14 82 .208 .558
Prorated Tot 4.12 55 0 4 3 0 77 80 13 21 63 .266 .779
Actual Tot 2.36 68 0 11 2 5 84 64 6 15 84 .211 .574
Yet another excellent performance from a Rockies reliever. To hold opposing
batters to a .208 average and an OPS of .558 while playing half his games
in this park is downright amazing.White dominated both lefties and righties,
he struck out almost six hitters for every man that he walked, and he
had a two-month stretch (May 6 to July 6) when he didn't allow a single
earned run in 25 outings. There's only blemish on his record -- he allowed
20 of 49 inherited runners to score, a rate that was worse than the league
average.
Jose Jimenez, closer, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.91 53 0 4 5 0 70 86 8 31 47 .308 .849
Prorated Col 5.91 50 0 4 5 0 66 81 8 29 44 .308 .849
Actual Col 3.18 72 0 5 2 24 71 63 4 28 44 .239 .642
Jimenez inherited the closer job when Dipoto was lost to the team, and
except for a rough stretch during Colorado's eleven-game losing streak
in July, he came through in fine fashion. An extreme groundball pitcher,
Jimenez kept the ball in the park and handled lefties and righties equally
well. As a result, he converted 24 of 30 save chances and anchored a surprisingly
good Rockies bullpen.
Outlook
The Rockies said goodbye to a lot of players after the season, but only
a few represent a meaningful loss of talent. They'll miss the production
that Jeffrey Hammonds provided when he was healthy, and Julian Tavarez
and Kevin Jarvis gave them some good innings last year. But that's about
it. The other guys who left are veteran role players (Darren Bragg, Jeff
Frye, Butch Huskey) who can be replaced.
The club spent a mountain of cash to add Mike Hampton ($121 million,
8 years) and Denny Neagle ($51.5 million, 5 years) to their starting rotation.
They also shelled out some money to replace Hammonds with Ron Gant and
Bragg with Roberto Kelly. And they picked up Ron Villone to add depth
to the pitching staff.
Leaving aside the question of whether it's smart to give any pitcher
an 8-year deal, the Hampton signing was a terrific move. He's young, durable
and an extreme groundball pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of homeruns.
The park shouldn't hurt him too much. On the other hand, Neagle and Villone
are flyball pitchers in their thirties who weren't all that good last
year, and it's not clear how the team is helped by the addition of two
more lefties to a staff that already has Hampton and Bohanon.
So the starting rotation shapes up as Hampton, Pedro Astacio, Brian Bohanon,
Neagle, and a fifth starter drawn from a group including Masato Yoshii,
Brian Rose, and maybe Villone. The bullpen that was so good last year
is intact. In fact, it will be even deeper if Jerry Dipoto returns to
health.
As strange as it sounds, the real question is whether this team is going
to score enough runs, especially when they leave home. There's reason
for optimism on that front -- Larry Walker and Jeff Cirillo should bounce
back, Ben Petrick should provide more offense from the catcher position,
and they'll have a full season from Todd Walker. It might be asking a
lot to expect Todd Helton and the bullpen to be as good as they were last
year, but if they can come close, and if the newcomers can adapt to mountain
ball reasonably quickly, the Rockies should be in the thick of the NL
West race this year.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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