2000 Post-Season Review -- Detroit Tigers
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
February 2, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Detroit Tigers did in the 2000 season
relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used
in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our publication
schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 844 823
Runs allowed 873 827
Run Margin -29 -4
Wins 79 79
Pythagorean wins 78 81
Placement 2nd 3rd
All the celebration and hoopla attending the first season in new Comerica
Park didn't disguise the bitter taste left in Motown over the Tigers'
disappointing 2000 season. After a big increase in payroll, most of the
team's partisans expected the Bengals to return to contending status in
a weak AL Central division. However, despite the fall of perennial division
champ Cleveland, Detroit couldn't even mount a serious challenge for the
AL Wild Card, much less the AL Central title.
Most of the responsibility for 2000 has been laid at the doorstep of
expensive former AL MVP Juan Gonzalez. Certainly, Gonzo deserves a heaping
helping of blame for his terrible season, in which he managed to touch
all the bases that aging, disgruntled superstars frequently do: first
unhappy, then unhealthy, and ultimately unproductive, Gonzalez unwisely
spurned a reported $130 million or so offer from Detroit early in 2000,
apparently needing more than that mind-boggling sum to sate his enormous
ego. A hot July-August streak made his overall numbers look a lot better,
but his back problems, his defensive limitations, and his unsatisfied
nature do not bode well for his future performance.
Key Position Players
The Detroit attack was slightly less productive than expected last year,
mostly because the deficit caused by Gonzalez was largely made up by the
return to productivity of Bobby Higginson. The Tigers tried mightily to
deal Higginson early in the season, but no one would pay a decent price
for their popular left fielder after two sub-par campaigns. By the end
of the season, though, the failure to deal Higginson could be seen as
a blessing in disguise.
Brad Ausmus, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 523 141 23 5 12 75 61 11 62 5 79 11 6 .270 .358 .402 .760 75
Prorated Det 526 142 23 5 12 76 61 11 62 5 80 11 6 .270 .358 .402 .760 75
Actual Det 523 139 25 3 7 75 51 6 69 0 79 11 5 .266 .357 .365 .722 69
Although Ausmus doesn't rank among the elite of offensive catchers, he
has added bat skills. Unlike most of his teammates, Ausmus did not suffer
in the power categories in Comerica Park (11 2B, two 3B, three HR), but
hit poorly on the road (.245, four homers). He did clear previous bests
in runs, hits, and walks and hit .321 against southpaws, a rate well above
his usual level. As usual, Ausmus hit much better in the second half.
Behind the plate, he threw out more than 43% of enemy basestealers last
year, the top rate in the American League.
Following the season, Ausmus was shipped back to Houston following two
years in Detroit. He should find Enron Field to his liking, and the Astros
believe that Ausmus will help turn their pitching staff around. At age
31, the never-disabled, athletic, and durable receiver should enjoy a
solid campaign. He started 140 games last season for the Tigers, but ought
to get a break in Houston.
Javier Cardona, c, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 69 17 3 0 3 10 12 1 5 0 11 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 9
Prorated Det 39 10 2 0 2 6 7 1 3 0 6 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 5
Actual Det 40 7 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 9 0 0 .175 .190 .275 .465 2
Cardona wasn't much of a prospect until 1998, when he started to hit
at Double-A Jacksonville. Called up to Detroit twice last season when
injuries struck other players, he started twelve times. He hit .275 with
11 homers in 218 at-bats at Triple-A and is a candidate for backup duty
with the injury-prone Mitch Meluskey and Robert Fick as catchers. Neither
of them have defensive skills as good as Cardona's.
Tony Clark, 1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 547 154 29 0 31 80 97 5 65 6 120 1 1 .282 .361 .505 .866 99
Prorated Det 205 58 11 0 12 30 36 2 24 2 45 0 0 .282 .361 .505 .866 37
Actual Det 208 57 14 0 13 32 37 0 24 2 51 0 0 .274 .349 .529 .878 35
Clark was disabled three separate times in 2000 because of ribcage and
back problems. After a typically slow April (.115), Clark hit at expected
levels despite his injuries, even though many believe that Clark is too
streaky and just doesn't hit good pitching very well. He does strike out
often, although that hasn't stopped him from posting impressive power
numbers. Assuming he is healthy for 2001, "Tony the Tiger" should enjoy
another solid offensive season. If he isn't healthy, watch for Robert
Fick and Eric Munson to battle for Clark's job. It's possible that the
Tigers could convert Clark to DH duty if they think it will significantly
reduce his risk of injury.
Robert Fick, 1b/c, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 158 41 7 1 6 26 29 1 18 1 23 2 1 .259 .335 .430 .766 23
Prorated Det 166 43 7 1 6 27 30 1 19 1 24 2 1 .259 .335 .430 .766 25
Actual Det 163 41 7 2 3 18 22 1 22 2 39 2 1 .252 .340 .374 .715 22
Fick's only tool is his bat. He has no speed, no defensive position,
and questionable self-control on the field. He has hit extremely well
in the minors and, while he didn't produce the expected power for Detroit,
ought to help out as a spare catcher/DH/first baseman/pinch-hitter. Fick
is too old now to enjoy a long career as a regular, and his fielding skills
are so poor that he'll have to hit bucketloads to land at first base.
He batted just .194 in 31 at-bats against southpaws last year, making
it much more likely that he'll be platooned in the future.
Gregg Jefferies, 1b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 71 18 3 0 2 9 7 1 6 1 5 1 1 .254 .316 .380 .697 8
Prorated Det 144 36 6 0 4 18 14 2 12 2 10 2 2 .254 .316 .380 .697 17
Actual Det 142 39 8 0 2 18 14 0 16 1 10 0 2 .275 .344 .373 .717 17
Jefferies has retired. Last season he did exactly what he's always done
-- hit singles and take a few walks. For various reasons, he was never
the player that his minor league performance led most to believe he would
be, but he still finished up his career with 1,593 hits (126 of them homers)
and 196 stolen bases. That's not too bad.
Hal Morris, 1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 95 27 6 0 1 11 10 0 8 1 13 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 12
Prorated Cin 71 20 4 0 1 8 7 0 6 1 10 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 9
Actual Cin 63 14 2 1 2 9 6 1 12 3 10 0 0 .222 .351 .381 .732 9
Prorated Det 114 32 7 0 1 13 12 0 10 1 16 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 14
Actual Det 106 33 7 0 1 15 8 0 19 1 16 0 0 .311 .416 .406 .822 19
Prorated Tot 185 52 12 0 2 21 19 0 16 2 25 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 23
Actual Tot 169 47 9 1 3 24 14 1 31 4 26 0 0 .278 .391 .396 .788 27
It's hard to tell exactly why the Tigers, swimming in lefthanded-hitting
first basemen, wanted Morris when they acquired him last July. He is a
solid singles hitter who walked far more often last year than could have
been expected from his previous performance. He did miss nearly a month
of action with a fractured finger, but he should land on someone's roster
in 2001 due to his consistency and ability to hit right-handers off the
bench.
Dusty Allen, 1b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 66 13 3 0 2 8 10 0 9 0 17 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 7
Prorated SD 12 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 1
Actual SD 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 0.000 .143 0.000 .143 0
Prorated Det 16 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 2
Actual Det 16 7 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 7 0 0 .438 .500 .938 1.438 8
Prorated Tot 28 6 1 0 1 3 4 0 4 0 7 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 3
Actual Tot 28 7 2 0 2 5 2 0 4 0 12 0 0 .250 .344 .536 .879 5
After starting the season hitless in nine games for San Diego, Allen
went to the Tigers in a July 17 trade for former 3B prospect Gabe Alvarez.
Allen, a righty-swinging line-drive hitter, has little speed or defensive
ability. He did well in limited at-bats for the Tigers and could battle
for a bench job in 2001. However, the Tigers are stacked with first base
candidates, and Allen's penchant for striking out and his mediocre defense
in the pasture don't help.
Eric Munson, 1b, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Det 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0
The Tigers' first-round pick in 1999 hit .252 in 98 games at Double-A
Jacksonville with 15 home runs. He missed the last month of the year with
a spinal fracture, which (fortunately) isn't as serious as it sounds.
His 2000 performance is a far cry from what his impressive tools might
suggest; with Fick and Clark in the picture in Detroit, Munson ought to
see everyday action at Triple-A Toledo.
Damion Easley, 2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 533 141 32 1 21 81 73 16 50 2 108 13 4 .265 .343 .447 .790 83
Prorated Det 472 125 28 1 19 72 65 14 44 2 96 12 4 .265 .343 .447 .790 74
Actual Det 464 120 27 2 14 76 58 11 55 1 79 13 4 .259 .350 .416 .766 70
Easley was shelved for two weeks in April with a strained ribcage. When
he returned, he hit poorly before going back to the sidelines for a month
on May 9 with a fractured right wrist. However, when Easley returned to
action in June, he began to hit. He smacked five homers in July and then
batted .327 with four dingers in August. Easley has lost some of his speed
but is still a productive everyday second baseman. He made just six errors
in 615 chances (.990) to lead AL second baseman in fielding average and
has good arm strength and range.
Jose Macias, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 69 15 2 1 0 7 6 0 5 0 8 1 1 .217 .270 .275 .546 5
Prorated Det 180 39 5 3 0 18 16 0 13 0 21 3 3 .217 .270 .275 .546 13
Actual Det 173 44 3 5 2 25 24 1 18 0 24 2 0 .254 .328 .364 .692 22
The switch-hitting utility infielder had two separate stints with the
Tigers, getting more action than expected because of Easley's injuries.
He hit .290 in May and then .286 in August after his second recall, playing
five positions for Detroit. However, a relative lack of experience at
shortstop will hurt his chances to win a job on a major league roster,
because he won't hit enough to start at any position.
Dean Palmer, 3b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 567 148 27 1 34 85 100 7 55 2 140 3 2 .261 .331 .492 .823 91
Prorated Det 539 141 26 1 32 81 95 7 52 2 133 3 2 .261 .331 .492 .823 87
Actual Det 524 134 22 2 29 73 102 4 66 2 146 4 2 .256 .338 .471 .809 87
Palmer's raw power is as good as anyone's in the game. However, making
contact has always been a problem for him. He is a solid producer who
has knocked in over 100 runs in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately,
his average has dropped from .278 to .263 to .256 from 1998-2000, and
Palmer must show this year that he is not entering a serious decline phase.
An OPS of .809 for a power hitter at a power position plainly isn't good
enough, and it wasn't due to his new digs, either: Palmer actually hit
better on the road than at home in 2000. He made 23 errors last year,
most of them on wild throws; his arm is not always as accurate as it should
be. Combine that tendency with range that is well below average, and Palmer
is in a bit of trouble.
Shane Halter, 3b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 66 15 3 0 0 8 4 0 7 0 12 2 2 .227 .301 .273 .574 6
Prorated Det 233 53 11 0 0 28 14 0 25 0 42 7 7 .227 .301 .273 .574 20
Actual Det 238 62 12 2 3 26 27 1 14 0 49 5 2 .261 .302 .366 .668 26
In 2000, for the first time, Halter spent an entire season on a big-league
roster. This wasn't expected; the Tigers had several utility candidates
in camp before they claimed Halter on waivers from the Mets on March 13.
Halter quickly impressed manager Phil Garner with his drive and ability
to play the key infield spots. In fact, Halter played every position on
the field on October 1, when Garner allowed him to roam the diamond on
the season's last day. Halter is helpful due to his defensive versatility.
Gabe Alvarez, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 66 16 3 0 3 9 10 1 7 0 14 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 9
Prorated Det 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 0
Actual Det 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0.000 .667 0.000 .667 0
Prorated SD 12 3 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 2
Actual SD 13 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .154 .214 .231 .445 1
Prorated Tot 15 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 2
Actual Tot 14 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 1 .143 .294 .214 .508 1
While Alvarez twice hit 20 homers at Triple-A, he couldn't live down
his disappointing 1998 performance in Detroit (.231, five homers in 58
games). The Padres acquired him last July for Dusty Allen, but only gave
him 13 at-bats. Alvarez has some punch, but he appears to be not much
more than a Triple-A player. He'll be in camp with the Reds this spring.
Deivi Cruz, ss, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 534 145 32 2 12 65 61 4 21 0 64 2 3 .272 .302 .406 .708 63
Prorated Det 572 155 34 2 13 70 65 4 23 0 69 2 3 .272 .302 .406 .708 67
Actual Det 583 176 46 5 10 68 82 4 13 2 43 1 4 .302 .318 .449 .767 73
While Cruz' unwillingness to take a walk is teeth-grinding, he does some
things very well with the bat -- just look at his RBI count or his doubles
total, which ranked third in the AL. Cruz makes excellent contact and
has become a far better offensive producer than anyone could have anticipated,
even though he lost his speed fairly early in his career. Given his shortstop
play, his bat is a great bonus. Scouts refer to Cruz as a "pitcher's friend"
because of his sure hands (.982 fielding percentage), decent range, and
strong arm.
How many players in history have hit three times as many doubles as they
have drawn walks? Not many, at least among players with a minimum of 400
atbats in a season. It happened 22 times during the 1800s and the dead-ball
era, when walks were very scarce, but only five times since then -- Virgil
Stallcup (28/9 in 1949), Carlos Baerga (32/10 in 1994), Shawon Dunston
(30/10 in 1995), Mariano Duncan (34/9 in 1996), and Cruz last year.
Bobby Higginson, lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 583 155 30 2 23 86 81 4 75 2 91 4 4 .266 .352 .443 .794 93
Prorated Det 595 158 31 2 23 88 83 4 77 2 93 4 4 .266 .352 .443 .794 95
Actual Det 597 179 44 4 30 104 102 2 74 6 99 15 3 .300 .377 .538 .915 127
Higginson had another excellent season for the Tigers, re-establishing
himself as a valuable player when his awful 1999 season had seriously
damaged his reputation. Higginson has a very good arm (a major-league
best 19 outfield assists), a terrific power bat, good on-base ability,
and even some speed. He is solid against both lefties and righties and
has a .281 career average. Like his teammates, Higginson struggled to
hit for power at Comerica (13 homers) but did hit for average (.333) there,
taking advantage of the large outfield dimensions.
Juan Encarnacion, cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 545 143 29 6 18 76 75 11 27 1 114 31 10 .262 .308 .437 .745 72
Prorated Det 546 143 29 6 18 76 75 11 27 1 114 31 10 .262 .308 .437 .745 72
Actual Det 547 158 25 6 14 75 72 7 29 1 90 16 4 .289 .330 .433 .764 77
Despite being hurt by his new ballpark (.266, four homers) Encarnacion
made big strides in 2000. He doubled his walk total (only to 29, but it's
a start) and sliced his strikeouts. He improved his batting average by
34 points and his on-base percentage by 43. Encarnacion continues to frustrate
with his willingness to hack at bad pitches, and his drop in steals from
33 to 16 was troublesome. Though he still has terrific speed, he has not
seemed to improve his baserunning instincts. Defensively, he has range
and arm strength, but the Tigers feel that he is better in right field
than in center.
Encarnacion is a developing story. Nobody knows the ending, although
his gradual improvement is promising. Two other young Latin outfielders,
like Encarnacion born in 1976, provide an interesting contrast. World-class
superstar Vladimir Guerrero of the Expos is just one month older. Meanwhile,
Tampa Bay part-timer Jose Guillen, who had nearly identical on-base and
slugging numbers to Encarnacion in 2000 but is viewed as a tremendous
disappointment, is actually two months younger.
Juan Gonzalez, rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 580 179 35 1 49 107 132 5 52 7 115 1 1 .309 .364 .626 .990 130
Prorated Det 444 137 27 1 38 82 101 4 40 5 88 1 1 .309 .364 .626 .990 100
Actual Det 461 133 30 2 22 69 67 2 32 3 84 1 2 .289 .337 .505 .842 74
The one-year "Gonzo in Detroit" experiment did not take, either for the
sore-backed slugger or the Tigers. When Gonzalez was in peak health (late
July and all of August), he was outstanding, hitting .325 with 19 RBI
in August after batting .486 in 35 July at-bats. However, over the rest
of the season, his perfomance ranged from mediocre to sub-par. Gonzalez'
lack of mobility on the bases and in the field made his 41-point drop
in on-base percentage and huge drop in power all the more intolerable.
Clearly, the new ballyard in Detroit damaged Gonzalez' performance. He
batted just .267 with eight homers in Comerica Park. Signing a relatively
inexpensive deal with the Indians for 2001, Gonzalez will have every opportunity
to rescue his fading reputation as a run producer. And he'll have no excuses
about hitting in an unfriendly environment.
Rich Becker, rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 570 144 22 3 15 88 63 5 111 1 175 15 3 .253 .378 .381 .759 90
Prorated Oak 49 12 2 0 1 8 5 0 9 0 15 1 0 .253 .378 .381 .759 8
Actual Oak 47 11 2 0 1 11 5 1 11 0 17 1 0 .234 .390 .340 .730 7
Prorated Det 245 62 9 1 6 38 27 2 48 0 75 6 1 .253 .378 .381 .759 39
Actual Det 238 58 12 0 7 48 34 0 56 0 70 1 2 .244 .383 .382 .765 41
Prorated Tot 294 74 11 2 8 45 33 3 57 1 90 8 2 .253 .378 .381 .759 47
Actual Tot 285 69 14 0 8 59 39 1 67 0 87 2 2 .242 .384 .375 .759 48
The things Becker does well are important. He gets on base and can play
all three outfield positions. Nonetheless, his current status as a fourth
outfielder, viewed in relation to what he was supposed to be when
younger -- one of the league's top leadoff hitters -- tends to diminish
Becker's accomplishments. His speed never really came back after he tore
a knee ligament in 1994, and his penchant for striking out tends to wear
on his employers' patience. However, it's instructive to note that when
Becker batted leadoff last year, he had a .379 on-base percentage in 179
plate appearances. He's with Florida now.
Karim Garcia, rf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 132 30 4 1 7 18 19 0 11 1 31 2 2 .227 .285 .432 .717 16
Prorated Det 16 4 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 4 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 2
Actual Det 17 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .176 .176 .176 .353 0
Prorated Bal 15 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 2
Actual Bal 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Prorated Tot 30 7 1 0 2 4 4 0 3 0 7 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 4
Actual Tot 33 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 .091 .091 .091 .182 0
A few years ago, Garcia was a power prospect. Now he's just looking for
a place to play, and he isn't likely to ever find a regular one in the
big leagues at this rate. His next attempt will be in Cleveland this spring.
Wendell Magee, rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 68 18 4 0 3 10 9 0 6 0 13 1 1 .265 .320 .456 .776 9
Prorated Det 180 48 11 0 8 26 24 0 16 0 34 3 3 .265 .320 .456 .776 25
Actual Det 186 51 4 2 7 31 31 0 10 0 28 1 0 .274 .310 .430 .740 23
Magee has plenty of physical talent, but has never mastered the strike
zone enough to utilize his gifts at the plate. However, he did show some
offensive growth in 2000, and played errorless ball in the outfield. He
deserves a job in the majors as a fifth outfielder, although he'll be
fighting hard for playing time this spring.
Billy McMillon, dh, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 66 16 4 0 2 11 9 1 7 0 12 1 0 .242 .320 .394 .714 9
Prorated Det 132 32 8 0 4 22 18 2 14 0 24 2 0 .242 .320 .394 .714 18
Actual Det 123 37 7 1 4 20 24 1 19 0 19 1 0 .301 .388 .472 .859 25
Injuries to other players gave McMillon unexpected playing time in 2000,
and when given a chance, he performed the way sabermetricians all over
the country have always claimed he would. McMillon is a multi-skilled
offensive player, but it is unlikely that he can continue to hit this
well with continued exposure.
Luis Polonia, dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 630 186 31 7 15 77 62 3 32 1 76 31 13 .295 .331 .438 .769 91
Prorated Det 281 83 14 3 7 34 28 1 14 0 34 14 6 .295 .331 .438 .769 41
Actual Det 267 73 10 5 6 37 25 1 22 1 25 8 5 .273 .325 .416 .741 37
Prorated NYA 80 24 4 1 2 10 8 0 4 0 10 4 2 .295 .331 .438 .769 12
Actual NYA 77 22 4 0 1 11 5 0 7 0 7 4 2 .286 .341 .377 .718 10
Actual Tot 344 95 14 5 7 48 30 1 29 1 32 12 7 .276 .329 .407 .736 47
Polonia continues to perform to (low) expectations. He can hit for average
and still runs fairly well, but lacks power, on-base skills, or defensive
ability. For teams that need left-handed hitting bench help, Polonia is
a reasonable stopgap. He will continue his vagabond path in 2001.
Key Pitchers
Detroit's mound corps looked deceptively good in 2000 due to the positive
effect on the pitchers' stats caused by Comerica Park. Allowing for that
element, the Tigers had a below par staff that will be hurt by the loss
of Doug Brocail and Nelson Cruz to Houston. Dave Mlicki was certainly
expected to do better than his bloated 5.58 ERA after signing a multiyear
deal, though the team lucked out by getting a surprising performance out
of flutterballer Steve W. Sparks in the second half. Closer Todd Jones
turned in the best year of his career save-wise, but he was not a truly
dominating pitcher despite all the S's he posted in 2000.
Dave Mlicki, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 5.02 32 32 8 11 0 190 205 29 70 117 .277 .804
Prorated Det 5.02 21 21 5 7 0 125 135 19 46 77 .277 .804
Actual Det 5.58 24 21 6 11 0 119 143 17 44 57 .291 .820
Mlicki pitched worse than expected last year, losing his first five starts
and never really getting untracked except for a short streak in July.
Mlicki pitched badly both in Comerica (3-8, 5.50) and on the road (3-3,
5.69). At one time a strikeout pitcher, he no longer has the hard curve
or good four-seam fastball needed to set up and put away hitters, and
as a result allows far too many balls to be put into play. On a better
team, Mlicki would be a long reliever, and his best season (1996) was
spent with the Mets in that very capacity.
Brian Moehler, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.55 32 32 10 12 0 196 210 25 58 107 .277 .766
Prorated Det 4.55 30 30 9 11 0 182 196 23 54 100 .277 .766
Actual Det 4.50 29 29 12 9 0 178 222 20 40 103 .305 .805
Despite missing time last season due to an emergency appendectomy, Moehler
enjoyed another solid season as the Tigers' top starter. A typically poor
July and an atypically bad September kept his 2000 totals from being better.
Moehler's performance wasn't as good as his raw numbers would indicate;
on the road, he had a 3-6 mark and a 4.93 ERA, although he allowed 11
of his 20 homers at spacious Comerica Park. Like most Tigers pitchers,
he wouldn't hold as critical a role on a better club, but a strong-armed
starter with good control and a durable physique is valuable on anyone's
staff.
Hideo Nomo, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.86 32 32 10 13 0 202 198 34 105 192 .257 .800
Prorated Det 4.86 30 30 9 12 0 186 183 31 97 177 .257 .800
Actual Det 4.74 32 31 8 12 0 190 191 31 89 181 .263 .795
Still competitive and still possessing a baffling split-finger strikeout
pitch, Nomo has settled into a new, albeit less glamorous, role as a peripatetic
rotation-filler. His ERA at Comerica was 0.70 lower than on the road,
indicating that Nomo's mediocre 2000 mark may go up in 2001. At least
he was able to take his turn most every time out, leading the club in
starts and strikeouts and finishing second to Jeff Weaver in innings.
Just 2-7 on July 1, Nomo pitched very well in September to salvage his
season. He ended up sixth in the AL in whiffs, but also walked too many
for comfort and allowed 31 homers, fifth-most in the loop. Nomo has inked
with the Red Sox for 2001 and will no doubt pitch 180-200 innings if healthy.
Jeff Weaver, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.53 27 27 8 10 0 163 164 23 52 114 .263 .767
Prorated Det 4.53 33 33 10 12 0 197 198 28 63 138 .263 .767
Actual Det 4.32 31 30 11 15 0 200 205 26 52 136 .267 .754
Weaver enjoyed an impressive campaign in 2000, leading the staff in innings
in just his second big-league season. He has established that he can throw
strikes and, with 15 hit batsmen, indicated that he is not afraid to throw
inside. Weaver pitches very poorly in midsummer, doing his best work early
and late when the weather is cool. This pattern is not uncommon with sinkerballers;
a hard sinking fastball is tougher on hitters in cold weather.
Despite his sinker, Weaver still allows too many home runs; he needs
to sharpen his curve and further develop his only-fair change-up. The
raw material is there. Whether the Tigers can refine Weaver's ability
is the only question.
Steve W. Sparks, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.09 3 3 1 1 0 18 18 2 8 11 .269 .769
Prorated Det 5.09 17 17 6 6 0 101 103 11 46 63 .269 .769
Actual Det 4.07 20 15 7 5 1 104 108 7 29 53 .263 .713
The veteran knuckleballer signed a Triple-A deal with the Tigers in March
and, after 16 appearances at Toledo, got the call to Motown on June 20.
He joined the starting rotation in July and remained there until season's
end. Sparks pitched with much better control than he had shown in previous
big-league trials and was a spectacular 5-0, 1.69 in August. Still, counting
on a 35-year-old flutterball flinger to prop up your rotation doesn't
say much for the other pitchers on your staff. It's unlikely that Sparks
really has turned a corner, but we'll almost certainly find out since
the Tigers aren't awash in options.
Willie Blair, reliever / starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 5.95 34 4 3 6 0 85 98 17 30 47 .291 .863
Prorated Det 5.95 61 7 5 11 0 152 176 31 54 84 .291 .863
Actual Det 4.88 47 17 10 6 0 157 185 20 35 74 .296 .799
Blair's occasional good patches have kept him in the majors despite a
59-82 lifetime record. 2000 was one of his high points, as he rejoined
the Tigers, for whom he had reached his peak (16-8 in 1997). Even with
a 10-6 record, however, Blair's ERA on the road was 5.54. There's no way
that Blair would have gotten 17 starts on a good team; however, he is
valuable due to his willingness and ability to take the ball whenever
he's asked. He also won't walk the bases full, though his control is no
longer as sharp as it once was.
Dave Borkowski, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 3 7 10 .279 .807
Prorated Det 5.60 1 1 0 0 0 8 8 1 3 4 .279 .807
Actual Det 21.94 2 1 0 1 0 5 11 2 7 1 .423 1.452
Borkowski underwent surgery to repair bone chips in his elbow in May.
He ended the season making five rehab starts at Class A without distinguishing
himself. At 24, Borkowski has time to return from his injuries, but despite
a good arm, he's never been truly effective since a 15-3 season at Class
A West Michigan in 1997.
Adam Bernero, reliever / starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Det 4.19 12 4 0 1 0 34 33 3 13 20 .270 .740
A non-drafted free agent signed in 1999, Bernero made it to the majors
in his second pro season with just 32 minor league starts (17 in Double-
and Triple-A) under his belt. He enters 2001 with a chance to make the
rotation. There is concern that Bernero, as finesse pitcher who depends
on good control, will be hit much harder with increased exposure. The
Tigers reportedly tried to include Bernero in several off-season deals,
suggesting that they don't see him as an important piece of their future.
Mark Johnson, reliever / starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 7.69 27 4 2 5 0 50 68 12 28 28 .327 .985
Prorated Det 7.69 13 2 1 2 0 24 33 6 13 13 .327 .985
Actual Det 7.50 9 3 0 1 0 24 25 3 16 11 .266 .823
Johnson is already with his fourth pro organization despite playing just
four seasons in pro ball. A Rule 5 pick from the Yankees in December 1999,
Johnson made Detroit's staff in spring training but was disabled for five
weeks with a back injury. After pitching poorly for the Tigers in a handful
of games, he was released in June then re-signed to a Triple-A deal by
the Tigers. He went 2-11, 6.57 at Toledo.
Nelson Cruz, reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 5.71 11 0 1 1 0 17 20 3 6 12 .294 .855
Prorated Det 5.71 25 0 2 2 0 39 45 7 13 27 .294 .855
Actual Det 3.07 27 0 5 2 0 41 39 4 13 34 .253 .703
Cruz exceeded expectations last year after the Tigers purchased him from
Toledo in late June. A sinker/slider pitcher who cuts his fastball to
get lefties out, Cruz could get starting duty this year for the Astros,
who acquired him in December. However, he has only occasionally pitched
effectively as a starter in the high minors.
Matt Anderson, reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.55 23 0 2 2 0 30 27 5 23 26 .243 .814
Prorated Det 4.55 54 0 5 5 0 70 63 12 54 61 .243 .814
Actual Det 4.72 69 0 3 2 1 74 61 8 45 71 .228 .700
The hard-throwing righty paced the Tigers in appearances in 2000, his
first full big-league season. Anderson held left-handed batters to a sorry
.200 average, and righties didn't hit him that much better. While bad
mechanics still result in too many walks, control on his high-90s fastball
and darting slider has improved to tolerable levels. Improvement of his
currently poor change-up would add a terrific extra dimension to his game.
The streakiness of a young, hard thrower is reflected in the fact that
Anderson allowed runs in only 21 of his 69 appearances, but in eight of
them was tagged for three runs or more. The Tigers believe that with another
year of setup work, and some improvement in his delivery, he will be ready
to take on the closer's job.
Doug Brocail, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 2.81 70 0 7 3 3 102 84 10 36 90 .225 .645
Prorated Det 2.81 37 0 4 2 2 54 44 5 19 47 .225 .645
Actual Det 4.09 49 0 5 4 0 51 57 5 14 41 .285 .790
Brocail, a quality setup pitcher whose control has improved, was dealt
to Houston over the winter. His absence means that Matt Anderson must
step up and claim the eighth inning in order for the Tigers to contend.
When Brocail is at his best, his sinking fastball and slider induce hitters
to pound the ball into the ground and his curve and changeup keep them
off balance. Some scouts wonder why Brocail has never been allowed an
extended chance to close games; it may have something to do with his lack
of a four-seam fastball, the marquee pitch for many of the best major
league closers.
Allen McDill, reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 6.19 19 0 1 1 0 16 21 4 8 14 .323 1.000
Prorated Det 6.19 11 0 1 1 0 9 12 2 5 8 .323 1.000
Actual Det 7.20 13 0 0 0 0 10 13 2 1 7 .317 .959
The well-traveled southpaw did nothing in 2000 to convince the Tigers
to keep him around.
C.J. Nitkowski, reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.35 32 32 10 10 0 192 184 26 87 147 .254 .757
Prorated Det 4.35 19 19 6 6 0 115 110 16 52 88 .254 .757
Actual Det 5.25 67 11 4 9 0 110 124 13 49 81 .286 .802
After winning a job in the rotation out of spring training, Nitkowski
was exiled to the bullpen in late May after compiling a 2-7 mark. He allowed
four or more earned runs in eight of his 11 starts. With better stuff
than most lefties but middling command, Nitkowski nibbles too often for
comfort. He shut down lefty batters at a .218 clip, indicating that Nitkowski's
ultimate value may be as a situational southpaw since he always seems
to get bombed when promoted to starting.
Danny Patterson, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.24 53 0 4 4 0 74 79 9 24 53 .274 .780
Prorated Det 4.24 41 0 3 3 0 57 61 7 18 41 .274 .780
Actual Det 3.97 58 0 5 1 0 57 69 4 14 29 .309 .770
Patterson has become an extreme ground ball pitcher, using his bizarre
"Vulcan Split" (held between the third and fourth fingers) to induce worm-killers.
His strikeout rate has declined sharply as a result of throwing the split
and his sinking fastball earlier in the count. Patterson has had to alter
his game following 1998 shoulder surgery that diminished his velocity.
His ability to adjust has made him extremely valuable to the Tigers, who
always need quality relievers.
Jim Poole, reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 6.35 53 0 2 4 0 51 69 7 20 32 .327 .900
Prorated Det 6.35 9 0 0 1 0 9 12 1 3 5 .327 .900
Actual Det 7.27 18 0 1 0 0 9 13 4 1 5 .361 1.097
Prorated Mon 6.35 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 1 2 .327 .900
Actual Mon 27.00 5 0 0 0 0 2 8 1 3 3 .571 1.433
Prorated Tot 6.35 13 0 0 1 0 12 17 2 5 8 .327 .900
Actual Tot 10.97 23 0 1 0 0 11 21 5 4 8 .420 1.196
A journeyman southpaw, Poole never pitches well enough to stick around
in one place for long.
Sean Runyan, reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 4.02 70 0 4 3 1 72 67 10 36 51 .249 .754
Prorated Det 4.02 3 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 1 2 .249 .754
Actual Det 6.00 3 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 2 1 .222 .556
Runyan spent most of 2000 in the minors, regaining his touch after undergoing
left shoulder surgery in July 1999.The Tigers would love him to come back
as their one-out lefty in 2001, and early reports are that Runyan should
be 100% in spring training.
Brandon Villafuerte, reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Det 10.38 3 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 1 .250 .775
The Hawaii native throws close to 100 mph but hasn't got the slightest
idea of how to control his fastball. He'll need a lot more time in the
high minors to figure it out, but that will be for the Rangers to decide.
They recently acquired Villafuerte for Matt Perisho.
Todd Jones, closer, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Det 3.63 70 0 3 6 30 72 69 8 38 65 .255 .743
Prorated Det 3.63 60 0 3 5 26 62 59 7 33 56 .255 .743
Actual Det 3.52 67 0 2 4 42 64 67 6 25 67 .276 .727
Jones is a good, but not dominating, late-inning reliever who had perhaps
his best season in 2000. His league-leading 42 saves were a personal best,
and he blew just four save opportunities. He is not afraid to challenge
opponents with what used to be an excellent fastball, which now rates
as "only" above-average. A smart pitcher who loves his role, Jones pitched
well at Comerica (3.00 ERA, two homers) and struggled on the road (0-3,
4.06 ERA). He allowed runs in just 13 of his appearances.
Outlook
Detroit essentially stood pat this winter except for the big trade with
Houston, which is probably a good posture given the temptation GM Randy
Smith's felt to justify his 1999 megatrade by re-signing Juan Gonzalez.
Addition by subtraction is an overused cliché, but it is certainly apropos
in this situation. While it might not seem apparent this year, especially
if Gonzalez racks up 130+ ribbies in Cleveland this summer, the Tigers
dodged a huge bullet when Gonzo left as a free agent. Especially if Comerica
continues to play as a big pitchers' park, the Tigers certainly couldn't
afford to be encumbered with a one-dimensional DH with a huge salary for
five or more years. Did the specter of Cecil Fielder's sad decline in
the mid-1990s roam the Detroit executive suites after the season ended?
Major improvements by young outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Roger Cedeno
would be a big help. However, while Encarnacion is young enough to learn,
he hasn't yet shown the plate discipline needed to fully harness his power
potential. Cedeno's game deteriorated in virtually all areas Houston last
season, and the Astros were unhappy with his defense in center field.
He needs to establish that he can adequately patrol the spacious pasture
in Comerica while also upping his offensive contribution by getting on
base more and stealing bases at a higher rate.
The Tigers are not a good team, but they have enough talent and enough
room for improvement that they can realistically look forward to fighting
for a Wild Card berth with only a moderate amount of improvement. Anything
more than that would require a major leap forward like that of the White
Sox in 2000 -- and that isn't likely given this squad.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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