2000 Post-Season Review -- Florida Marlins
By Zack Scott
February 5, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Florida Marlins performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 700 731
Runs allowed 891 797
Run Margin -191 -66
Wins 61 79
Pythagorean wins 62 74
Placement 5th 3rd
It's hard to believe that the Marlins are the only team besides the Yankees
to win a World Series over the last five seasons. Wayne Huizenga's one-year
empire collapsed as fast as it was built. A year after their 1997 title,
Florida got rid of the stars, replaced them with inexpensive youngsters,
and proceeded to lose 108 games, 38 more than the previous year. From
that low point, the Marlins improved by 10 games in 1999 and hoped that
another year of experience for their young team would produce even more
wins in 2000.
The youngsters, especially the pitchers, did indeed continue to develop,
and Florida improved by 15 games. But were they really this much better?
Or was a bit of luck on their side? The Marlins definitely improved across
the board, but a team that is outscored by 66 runs normally win 74 games,
five fewer games than their actual total.
Where did these extra wins come from? One-run games, in which Florida
was 32-20 and joined the Cardinals as the only teams to be as many as
twelve games over .500 in those close contests. And for that, most of
the credit goes to the bullpen, which was very strong in the first half,
when the Marlins surprised a lot of people (including us) by reaching
the All-Star break in third place with a 45-43 record. Many of the relievers
faded badly in the second half, but closer Antonio Alfonseca maintained
his form and wound up leading the league with 45 saves in 49 opportunities.
Key Position Players
With another year of experience under their belt, the National League's
youngest lineup (average age: 25) improved at every position except catcher
and shortstop, resulting in 40 more runs than the previous year. Most
notably, Derrek Lee and Mike Lowell showed much improved power, Cliff
Floyd only missed a month, Luis Castillo was an outstanding on-base guy,
and Mark Kotsay improved as a contact-hitter while playing very good defense.
The only disappointing performance came from Alex Gonzalez whose numbers
dropped across the board.
Despite the improvements, the Marlins remained one of the NL's worst
offenses, outscoring only the Phillies. As a whole, Florida's batters
are free-swingers that strikeout often (3rd most) and walk very little
(3rd fewest), a problem they hope will improve with experience and maturity.
Defensively, they were slightly below average in both the infield and
outfield.
Mike Redmond, c, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 456 132 22 0 5 43 49 9 36 4 61 0 0 .289 .353 .371 .723 58
Prorated Flo 210 61 10 0 2 20 23 4 17 2 28 0 0 .289 .353 .371 .723 27
Actual Flo 210 53 8 1 0 17 15 8 13 3 19 0 0 .252 .316 .300 .616 20
Redmond was the leader of a catching corps that didn't hit a homerun
until August 18th and totaled only 2 all season. He was the least productive
catcher in the NL among those with at least 150 plate appearances. While
he was awful against righties (.526 OPS), Redmond fared much better against
lefties (.321 AVG) which appears to be a trend in his short major league
career (.339 AVG). The Marlins made a huge upgrade by signing Charles
Johnson this off-season, so Redmond will battle Ramon Castro for a backup
role.
Ramon Castro, c, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 111 22 5 0 3 10 13 1 8 1 20 0 0 .198 .256 .324 .581 9
Prorated Flo 144 29 6 0 4 13 17 1 10 1 26 0 0 .198 .256 .324 .581 12
Actual Flo 138 33 4 0 2 10 14 1 16 7 36 0 0 .239 .318 .312 .630 15
Florida gave up on Paul Bako and rewarded Castro's impressive first half
at AAA (.335 AVG, .628 SPC) with a big-league opportunity. Although Castro
broke the homer drought by Marlin catchers, he showed little power after
his late-July callup. The Marlins consider him their top catching prospect,
and to his credit, he has shown a slightly above average arm in his brief
time in the majors.
Paul Bako, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 67 17 4 0 1 6 7 0 7 1 15 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 8
Prorated Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 0
Actual Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0
Prorated Flo 166 42 10 0 2 15 17 0 17 2 37 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 20
Actual Flo 161 39 6 1 0 10 14 1 22 7 48 0 0 .242 .335 .292 .627 16
Prorated Atl 56 14 3 0 1 5 6 0 6 1 13 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 7
Actual Atl 58 11 4 0 2 8 6 0 5 3 15 0 0 .190 .254 .362 .616 5
Prorated Tot 224 57 13 0 3 20 23 0 23 3 50 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 27
Actual Tot 221 50 10 1 2 18 20 1 27 10 64 0 0 .226 .312 .308 .620 21
Florida was Bako's second stop of a three-legged trip and where he earned
most of his playing time. His good arm (career 36% CS) wasn't enough to
save his job with Florida, and Atlanta claimed him off waivers.
Derrek Lee, 1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 519 120 25 1 17 69 73 5 52 2 138 6 3 .231 .306 .382 .687 61
Prorated Flo 489 113 24 1 16 65 69 5 49 2 130 6 3 .231 .306 .382 .687 58
Actual Flo 477 134 18 3 28 70 70 4 63 6 123 0 3 .281 .368 .507 .875 88
Although he lost the first base job to Kevin Millar in spring training,
Lee's strong April performance (.359 AVG, 4 HR in only 39 AB) earned him
a shot as starter. He flourished as an everyday player, surging to his
highest power output and improving his walk rate. Lee came up big in the
late innings of close games by hitting .366 with 8 homers in only 82 atbats
(almost twice as often than in other situations). Lee's emergence may
make him the Marlins' first baseman for years to come.
Kevin Millar, 1b/lf/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 67 17 3 0 2 9 11 1 6 0 10 0 0 .254 .320 .388 .708 8
Prorated Flo 272 69 12 0 8 37 45 4 24 0 41 0 0 .254 .320 .388 .708 34
Actual Flo 259 67 14 3 14 36 42 8 36 0 47 0 0 .259 .364 .498 .862 49
After losing his job to Lee early in the season, Millar contributed at
first, left field for the injured Cliff Floyd, and third to fill in for
Mike Lowell. Despite hitting for a lower average, Millar displayed better
extra-base power than Lee (57 EBH compared to 49 after extrapolating Millar's
numbers for the same playing time as Lee) and also improved his walk rate.
But the Marlins like Lee's defense better, so they may use Millar as trade
bait or keep him around in case Lee regresses.
Luis Castillo, 2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 596 165 22 3 2 92 36 1 87 0 104 47 16 .277 .369 .334 .703 83
Prorated Flo 539 149 20 3 2 83 33 1 79 0 94 43 14 .277 .369 .334 .703 75
Actual Flo 539 180 17 3 2 101 17 0 78 0 86 62 22 .334 .418 .388 .806 96
It seems like every team has a young player who has great speed and defense
but never uses those attributes to their maximum ability. Castillo could
make a fortune if he ran a camp for weak-hitting speedsters because he
has learned to optimize his skills. In his five-year career, Castillo
has accepted that he doesn't have gap- or homerun-power and has instead
hit the ball on the ground five times more often than in the air.
As a result, he was the ultimate leadoff hitter, getting on base at the
NL's 8th best rate and leading the league in steals. Remarkably, Castillo
drove in only 17 runs despite having the league's 5th best batting average
because he batted only .211 with no extra-base hits with men in
scoring position. But the Marlins pay him to get on base and to use his
speed to score runs and play good defense. They're definitely getting
their money's worth.
Mike Lowell, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 557 142 26 0 22 69 83 6 44 1 102 1 2 .255 .313 .420 .733 73
Prorated Flo 529 135 25 0 21 66 79 6 42 1 97 1 2 .255 .313 .420 .733 69
Actual Flo 508 137 38 0 22 73 91 9 54 4 75 4 0 .270 .344 .474 .818 89
After battling testicular cancer and being at less-than-full strength
in 1999, Lowell bounced back to improve across the board, showing much
better extra-base power (2nd in doubles among third basemen). While he
improved, Lowell's production was still below average for an everyday
3B, but the Marlins see this season as something to build on in 2001.
Alex Gonzalez, ss, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 630 158 29 4 18 89 68 11 30 1 128 3 4 .251 .295 .395 .690 71
Prorated Flo 378 95 17 2 11 53 41 7 18 1 77 2 2 .251 .295 .395 .690 43
Actual Flo 385 77 17 4 7 35 42 2 13 0 77 7 1 .200 .229 .319 .548 28
Florida was hoping to blame Gonzalez' horrible start on his absence from
most of spring training due to bursitis in his shoulder and bronchitis,
but he never really improved. Perhaps injuries played into his disastrous
season -- in addition to his shoulder woes, he missed August with injured
finger -- but Gonzalez' three seasons of unimpressive production and defense
may open the door for prospect Pablo Ozuna. Gonzalez has shown occasional
power at the plate but walks at a ridiculously low rate and strikes out
too much. He needs to be more selective if he wants to keep his job.
Dave Berg, ss/3b/2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 90 25 5 0 1 12 9 1 10 0 18 1 1 .278 .353 .367 .720 12
Prorated Flo 214 59 12 0 2 29 21 2 24 0 43 2 2 .278 .353 .367 .720 29
Actual Flo 210 53 14 1 1 23 21 5 25 0 46 3 0 .252 .340 .343 .683 27
Although he doesn't hit well enough to be a starter with most teams,
Florida may have been better off playing Berg instead of Gonzalez. Berg
walks at a decent rate and has good doubles power for a utility infielder,
but he'll never be more than that. Expect him to stick around for a while
in Florida because the Marlins love his toughness -- he came back from
a rotator cuff tear then played through May with a bulging disk in his
back -- attitude, and versatility.
Andy Fox, ss/3b/of/2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 197 53 8 1 4 29 21 6 24 3 42 5 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 30
Prorated Ari 78 21 3 0 2 11 8 2 9 1 17 2 1 .269 .364 .381 .745 12
Actual Ari 86 18 4 0 1 10 10 0 4 1 16 2 1 .209 .244 .291 .535 6
Prorated Flo 160 43 6 1 3 24 17 5 19 2 34 4 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 24
Actual Flo 164 40 4 2 3 19 10 3 18 3 37 8 3 .244 .330 .348 .677 20
Prorated Tot 238 64 10 1 5 35 25 7 29 4 51 6 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 36
Actual Tot 250 58 8 2 4 29 20 3 22 4 53 10 4 .232 .302 .328 .630 26
Fox got off to a slow start with Arizona possibly due in part to a broken
left hand that caused him to miss the season's first two weeks. In early
June, the D-Backs sent the utility player to the Marlins for Danny Bautista.
In Florida, Fox provided infield depth and help for the struggling Gonzalez.
Although Fox improved his numbers with his new team, he still put forth
a below-average performance while filling in at five different positions.
Cliff Floyd, lf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 575 165 39 2 24 89 99 4 61 7 105 19 14 .287 .358 .487 .845 97
Prorated Flo 435 125 30 2 18 67 75 3 46 5 80 14 11 .287 .358 .487 .845 73
Actual Flo 420 126 30 0 22 75 91 8 50 5 82 24 3 .300 .378 .529 .906 92
Floyd cruised through the first four months of the season without a trip
to the DL, perhaps proving wrong critics who say he's fragile. But a knee
injury suffered in June required surgery in August, causing Floyd to miss
most of the month. He returned to have a strong September (.346 AVG),
resulting in his best season to date. Although he only exceeded 400 plate
appearances for the second time in his 8-year career, Floyd hit for his
best homerun power and was second in the league in stolen base percentage.
Despite manager John Boles' spring-training claim that Floyd was playing
Gold Glove caliber defense, our analysis has never shown him to be better
than average. As a result, Floyd would be more valuable to an AL team
as a DH, a role that might help him stay healthier. But he is Florida's
best bat and they need his production in the middle of their lineup.
Henry Rodriguez, lf/rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 378 103 21 1 22 54 70 1 46 5 98 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 68
Prorated ChN 254 69 14 1 15 36 47 1 31 3 66 1 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 46
Actual ChN 259 65 15 1 18 37 51 3 22 2 76 1 2 .251 .314 .525 .839 42
Prorated Flo 109 30 6 0 6 16 20 0 13 1 28 0 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 20
Actual Flo 108 29 6 0 2 10 10 1 14 0 23 0 0 .269 .358 .380 .737 16
Prorated Tot 363 99 20 1 21 52 67 1 44 5 94 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 65
Actual Tot 367 94 21 1 20 47 61 4 36 2 99 1 2 .256 .327 .482 .809 59
When Floyd went down, the Marlins attempted to replace his bat by sending
a couple of minor-leaguers to the Cubs for Rodriguez. But Rodriguez hit
for very little power and was fifty points below Floyd's batting average.
In fact, Rodriguez' power disappeared after the All-Star break; he had
only 3 homers the rest of the way. Upon Floyd's return, Rodriguez was
used sparingly, and the Marlins did not pick up his option for 2001. He
is rumored to be close to signing a one-year, $1 million contract with
the Yankees.
Brant Brown, lf/rf/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 108 26 5 1 4 16 16 1 9 1 29 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 14
Prorated Flo 69 17 3 1 3 10 10 1 6 1 19 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 9
Actual Flo 73 14 6 0 2 4 6 0 3 0 33 1 0 .192 .224 .356 .580 6
Prorated ChN 93 22 4 1 3 14 14 1 8 1 25 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 12
Actual ChN 89 14 1 0 3 7 10 1 10 0 29 2 1 .157 .248 .270 .517 6
Prorated Tot 162 39 7 1 6 24 24 1 13 1 43 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 21
Actual Tot 162 28 7 0 5 11 16 1 13 0 62 3 1 .173 .237 .309 .546 12
The Marlins grew tired of watching Brown's numbers decrease drastically
-- 118 points in batting average and almost 200 in slugging -- since his
career season with the Cubs in 1998. So they shipped him back to Chicago
in a three-team deal. The Marlins, who acquired Chuck Smith from Texas,
made out the best on the trade. Meanwhile, Brown performed even worse
with the Cubs, and he will try to make the Brewers as a reserve outfielder
in 2001.
Danny Bautista, lf/rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 72 18 3 0 2 10 9 0 3 0 11 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 7
Prorated Flo 90 23 4 0 3 13 11 0 4 0 14 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 9
Actual Flo 89 17 4 0 4 9 12 0 5 0 20 1 0 .191 .234 .371 .605 8
Prorated Ari 282 71 12 0 8 39 35 0 12 0 43 4 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 28
Actual Ari 262 83 16 7 7 45 47 3 20 4 30 5 2 .317 .366 .511 .877 47
Prorated Tot 372 93 16 0 10 52 47 0 16 0 57 5 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 37
Actual Tot 351 100 20 7 11 54 59 3 25 4 50 6 2 .285 .333 .476 .809 54
Feeling they needed more infield depth, the Marlins traded the disappointing
Bautista to Arizona. Once a highly-regarded prospect with the Tigers,
the free-swinging Bautista has done very little to date, mainly because
he has drawn only 68 walks in his entire career (1318 atbats spanning
8 seasons). But 20 of those walks were with the Diamondbacks, and that
new-found patience might explain the surge in his batting output.
Mark Smith, lf/rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 66 16 4 0 3 10 12 1 7 0 12 2 0 .242 .320 .439 .759 10
Prorated Flo 187 45 11 0 9 28 34 3 20 0 34 6 0 .242 .320 .439 .759 28
Actual Flo 192 47 8 1 5 22 27 2 17 1 54 2 0 .245 .310 .375 .685 24
Boles used Smith in left when Floyd was injured and in right to give
Kotsay rest against lefties (even though Smith has only hit .189 against
southpaws over the last five years). Smith struck out at his highest rate
ever and hit with far less power than expected. He will try to earn a
spot on Montreal's roster in 2001.
Preston Wilson, cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 607 154 29 2 30 87 90 8 54 2 190 13 6 .254 .320 .456 .776 88
Prorated Flo 604 153 29 2 30 87 90 8 54 2 189 13 6 .254 .320 .456 .776 87
Actual Flo 605 160 35 3 31 94 121 8 55 1 187 36 14 .264 .331 .486 .817 98
Although he was projected to break the record, Wilson finished two strikeouts
shy of Bobby Bonds' major league record for one season. Obviously, the
Marlins would like him to be more selective at the plate, and they may
be encouraged by his reduction in strikeout rate after the break (35%
less frequent).
Apart from his 121 RBI (8th best in NL), Wilson's offensive production
was only in the middle of the pack among National League center fielders,
and his defense was below average. But 30-homer power at age 25 suggests
that he may have a huge upside if he can learn to control the strike zone
on a consistent basis in the coming years.
Mark Kotsay, rf/cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Flo 543 151 23 8 12 72 64 1 41 4 56 9 6 .278 .327 .416 .743 71
Prorated Flo 527 147 22 8 12 70 62 1 40 4 54 9 6 .278 .327 .416 .743 70
Actual Flo 530 158 31 5 12 87 57 0 42 2 46 19 9 .298 .347 .443 .791 78
Kotsay enjoyed his best season to date but provided average-at-best offensive
production from a right fielder. Although he hit for slightly more power
than expected, Kotsay is too much of a singles hitter and doesn't walk
frequently. On the plus side, he turned 25 in December, doesn't strikeout
often (5th fewest among NL qualifiers), has very good range, and has a
very good arm. If Kotsay struggles in 2001, newly acquired Jeff Abbott
will see significant time.
Key Pitchers
Brian Meadows, Dennis Springer, and Livan Hernandez started half of Florida's
games in 1999 but were replaced last year by four guys (Jesus Sanchez,
Brad Penny, A.J. Burnett, and Vladimir Nunez) whose average age was 24.
Strong performances by a few of these young starters and another year
of experience for the bullpen resulted in a pitching staff that allowed
55 fewer runs than the previous year, improving their league ranking from
12th to 8th.
The rotation took a big hit early in the season when Alex Fernandez was
lost to shoulder surgery for the second time in three years, but Ryan
Dempster stepped up, Burnett and Penny pitched beyond their years, and
Chuck Smith made the most of his first big-league opportunity in ten years
of pro ball. At the same time, Nunez disappointed and Sanchez failed to
improve, but the Marlins had to be happy with their young pitchers' overall
development.
Despite having only an average bullpen ERA, the Marlins had one of the
NL's most efficient pens, finishing 3rd in saves (48) and 4th in save
percentage (70%). NL Save King Antonio Alfonseca led the group that received
outstanding first-half performances by hopeful closer Braden Looper, lefty
Armando Almanza, and veteran Ricky Bones.
Alex Fernandez, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 3.64 32 32 11 9 0 186 171 18 56 128 .246 .692
Prorated Flo 3.64 9 9 3 3 0 54 49 5 16 37 .246 .692
Actual Flo 4.13 8 8 4 4 0 52 59 7 16 27 .292 .798
After shutting down early at the end of 1999, Fernandez used that time
to strengthen his surgically repaired shoulder with hopes of returning
to form. But he experienced inflammation in his shoulder and elbow, was
forced to shut down again in May, and had his second rotator cuff surgery
in three years. In his eight starts, Fernandez wasn't bad, but he allowed
more hits than innings pitched and had a 4+ ERA for the first time since
1992. He won't be ready for spring training, but Fernandez hopes to return
in June.
Ryan Dempster, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.78 32 32 8 14 0 185 187 25 103 144 .264 .790
Prorated Flo 4.78 37 37 9 16 0 216 219 29 121 169 .264 .790
Actual Flo 3.66 33 33 14 10 0 226 210 30 97 209 .243 .726
Dempster was by far the Marlins best starter and one of the best in the
league, finishing 10th in ERA, 4th in strikeouts, 8th in innings pitched,
and 8th in quality starts. Although he was also among the league leaders
in walks, Dempster dramatically improved his walk and strikeout rates
from a year ago. He was rewarded for his strong performance by representing
the Marlins in his first All-Star game. Dempster heads into spring training
as Florida's #1 starter.
Vladimir Nunez, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.16 32 32 10 12 0 192 184 23 85 151 .253 .741
Prorated Flo 4.16 12 12 4 5 0 74 71 9 33 58 .253 .741
Actual Flo 7.90 17 12 0 6 0 68 88 12 34 45 .319 .917
In 1999, Nunez came over from Arizona as part of the Matt Mantei deal
and pitched well in 12 starts with the Marlins, holding opponents to a
.243 batting average. But his 12 starts in 2000 were much worse -- opposing
batters hit 76 points higher and slugged .525. Nunez' performance earned
him a June demotion to the minors and a mid-September recall as a reliever.
He will need a strong spring to earn a spot on the 2001 roster.
A.J. Burnett, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 5.54 16 16 3 8 0 91 102 12 53 73 .287 .838
Prorated Flo 5.54 14 14 3 7 0 80 89 11 46 64 .287 .838
Actual Flo 4.79 13 13 3 7 0 83 80 8 44 57 .259 .776
After making seven encouraging starts in his 1999 debut, the Marlins
were hoping for a lot of the same in 2000. But Burnett ruptured a thumb
ligament in spring training and required surgery that forced him to miss
almost 60% of the season. Upon returning, Burnett pitched well, including
five quality starts (2.91 ERA) in August. Overall, he had a rough time
on the road (1-4, 7.46 ERA). The young righty kept right-handed batters
off of the bases by holding them to a .219 average, but lefties reached
base 42% of the time. The Marlins hope Burnett can build off his strong
August and stay healthy in 2001.
Brad Penny, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 5.95 27 27 6 13 0 154 185 28 65 155 .299 .858
Prorated Flo 5.95 20 20 5 10 0 116 139 21 49 117 .299 .858
Actual Flo 4.81 23 22 8 7 0 120 120 13 60 80 .263 .775
Penny made a strong debut, winning three of his first four major-league
starts while compiling a 3.42 ERA, but he didn't win another game over
his next ten starts (0-5, 6.09 ERA). Perhaps his poor stretch can be explained
by the shoulder soreness that forced him on the DL in July, because when
Penny returned in September, he finished the season with four more strong
starts (3-0, 3.04 ERA).
Jesus Sanchez, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 5.41 39 16 5 8 0 121 129 20 68 102 .273 .831
Prorated Flo 5.41 57 23 7 12 0 176 187 29 99 148 .273 .831
Actual Flo 5.34 32 32 9 12 0 182 197 32 76 123 .280 .845
Sanchez was one of the worst starting pitchers (among qualifiers for
ERA title) in the NL, especially when you consider that half of his starts
were in a pitchers park. His control was much better, but hitters teed
off on him, and his ERA and gopher-ball rate -- batters went deep 1.6
times per 9 innings -- were 5th and 6th worst in the league, respectively.
Expect Sanchez to battle for a starting job at the bottom of the rotation
or go back to the bullpen.
Reid Cornelius, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.58 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 2 7 12 .279 .792
Prorated Flo 4.58 21 21 7 7 0 124 133 14 49 84 .279 .792
Actual Flo 4.82 22 21 4 10 0 125 135 19 50 50 .282 .807
The Marlins called Cornelius up in search of a replacement for the injured
Fernandez. He lost his first start, then earned a spot in the rotation
by going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA over his next eight outings. Unfortunately
for him and his mates, Cornelius never won another game as a starter,
posting a 0-8 record and 5.59 ERA the rest of the way (he won one game
in relief). Don't expect Cornelius to get as many starts in 2001.
Chuck Smith, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Flo 3.23 19 19 6 6 0 123 111 6 54 118 .248 .692
Florida stumbled upon a gold mine when they acquired Smith for weak-hitting
Brant Brown. The 30-year-old rookie had toiled as an unknown in the minors
for nine years before getting his big-league break. Smith shined mostly
because he kept the ball in the park (his homerun rate was about the same
as league-leader Mike Hampton) and struck out batters at a high rate (good
enough for 4th best in the NL if he had pitched enough to qualify). It
will be interesting to see if his success was a fluke or if Smith is a
late bloomer.
Ricky Bones, long reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 5.01 4 4 1 1 0 23 26 3 9 15 .283 .795
Prorated Flo 5.01 14 14 3 3 0 79 88 10 30 51 .283 .795
Actual Flo 4.54 56 0 2 3 0 77 94 6 27 59 .303 .771
Bones gets my Freakiest Injury Award for straining his back while watching
TV, landing him on the DL for a couple weeks in early May. When he was
participating in less dangerous activities like playing baseball, Bones
was outstanding in long relief through the break (1.61 ERA). But opponents
figured him out and smacked 48 hits in his 27 post-break innings, resulting
in a 10.00 ERA over that time period. Despite his awful second half, the
Marlins re-signed Bones for 2001, but if he doesn't pitch better than
that, he'll have all the time in the world to watch TV.
Manny Aybar, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.05 8 8 2 3 0 42 52 6 17 32 .306 .872
Prorated Col 6.05 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 2 .306 .872
Actual Col 16.20 1 0 0 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 .500 1.300
Prorated Cin 6.05 9 9 2 4 0 49 61 7 20 38 .306 .872
Actual Cin 4.83 32 0 1 1 0 50 51 7 22 31 .262 .805
Prorated Flo 6.05 5 5 1 2 0 25 31 4 10 19 .306 .872
Actual Flo 2.63 21 0 1 0 0 27 18 3 13 14 .184 .624
Prorated Tot 6.05 15 15 4 5 0 76 95 11 31 58 .306 .872
Actual Tot 4.31 54 0 2 2 0 79 74 11 35 45 .244 .762
Aybar made his third and final stop of 2000 in Florida when the Marlins
acquired him from Cincinnati for a minor leaguer in late July. As a Marlin,
Aybar was tough to hit, holding batters to an average 82 points lower
than his career batting average allowed. They rewarded him with a contract
for 2001, and he may play a significant role in a deep bullpen.
Armando Almanza, lefty setup, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.41 53 0 3 4 0 69 69 8 47 82 .260 .785
Prorated Flo 4.41 36 0 2 3 0 47 47 5 32 56 .260 .785
Actual Flo 4.86 67 0 4 2 0 46 38 3 43 46 .228 .753
Prior to the 1999 season, Florida obtained Almanza and Braden Looper
from St. Louis for Edgar Renteria, and Almanza has pitched well at times
as a situational lefty. Like Bones, he had a great first half (1.52 ERA)
but fell apart after the break (10.80 ERA), allowing 32 baserunners over
his final 11.2 innings. Although lefties hit a meager .179 against him,
they still reached base 38% of the time because Almanza walked almost
one batter per inning. The free passes didn't kill him because he allowed
homeruns only about once every 15 innings, half as often as a league-average
pitcher. As he continues to develop, Almanza's control is the one major
flaw that he needs to improve.
Vic Darensbourg, lefty setup, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.09 70 0 4 4 1 70 74 7 32 56 .271 .769
Prorated Flo 4.09 61 0 3 3 1 61 64 6 28 49 .271 .769
Actual Flo 4.06 56 0 5 3 0 62 61 7 28 59 .260 .757
Compared to Almanzar, Darensbourg was the better lefty reliever because
he came through with runners in scoring position (.179 average) and stranded
84% of inherited runners, good enough for 8th in the NL. Darensbourg also
shut down lefties (.613 OPS) as he has done throughout his short career.
That makes him Florida's top lefty in the pen for next season.
Braden Looper, setup man, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.07 30 0 2 2 0 42 46 4 14 28 .282 .733
Prorated Flo 4.07 52 0 3 3 0 73 79 7 24 48 .282 .733
Actual Flo 4.41 73 0 5 1 2 67 71 3 36 29 .268 .722
The Marlins acquired Looper with the hope that he may be their closer
of the future, but management feels he needs to harden his mental approach
in order to handle late-game pressure. This season, Looper improved in
these situations, allowing a .691 OPS in the late innings of close games.
That's much better than his career OPS in these situations (.809). A major
concern is that he continued to struggle against left-handed batters,
who hit .359 against him this year and are .357 against him in his career.
Looper was another member of the Marlin bullpen who was outstanding in
the first half (2.66 ERA) but struggled after the break (7.09 ERA).
Dan Miceli, setup man, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 3.69 70 0 5 5 3 98 93 10 43 84 .252 .721
Prorated Flo 3.69 35 0 2 2 1 48 46 5 21 41 .252 .721
Actual Flo 4.25 45 0 6 4 0 49 45 4 18 40 .242 .666
Don't let the ERA fool you, because Miceli's stats were more consistent
with an ERA in the 3.40 range. He regained the command that made him one
of the league's best setup men with San Diego in 1998, yielding excellent
results (1.77 ERA through May 15th) until sustaining a forearm injury
on May 16. After that, he blew his only three save opportunities and posted
an 8.41 ERA the rest of the way. Miceli looks to regain his arm strength
during the off-season and return to his 1998 form.
Antonio Alfonseca, closer, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Flo 4.11 70 0 2 8 26 72 79 8 27 47 .281 .772
Prorated Flo 4.11 69 0 2 8 26 71 78 8 27 46 .281 .772
Actual Flo 4.24 68 0 5 6 45 70 82 7 24 47 .291 .773
It's amazing that a closer can allow batters to hit for such a high average
and still lead the league in saves and save percentage (92%). But most
of the hits were singles, he didn't walk too many guys, and he induced
a lot of groundballs. Ten of those grounders were turned into double plays,
a DP rate that ranks among the league leaders. Nevertheless, it's unlikely
that Alfonseca will be able to repeat his success rate in save situations
if he continues to put so many men on base. Unlike many of his fellow
Marlin relievers, Alfonseca was actually better after the break, holding
opponents to a batting average 67 points lower than his pre-break average
and surrendering only five extra-base hits (compared to 17 before the
break).
Outlook
Florida looks to build off their recent trend in which they've improved
by ten or more games in each of the last two seasons. I recently heard
that they consider themselves playoff contenders in 2001, but that seems
like wishful thinking in a division that contains the winningest team
of the last decade and last year's NL champ. But the Marlins were outscored
by 66 runs last year, and a team normally needs to about about +90 to
win a wildcard spot. That means they need to improve by about 150 runs
to be a serious contender.
Signing catcher Charles Johnson was their biggest off-season move, and
he provides a huge upgrade at a position that produced very little offense
in 2000. Even if he is unable to match his career season of a year ago
-- a reasonable probability given that his new park favors pitchers --
CJ should improve the Marlins offense by 30-40 runs. But that still leaves
another 100+ runs that need to be made up by his fellow hitters and/or
the pitching staff.
Florida management also hopes Johnson's presence behind the plate helps
their young pitching. In fact, it seems as if the media is treating this
as a foregone conclusion. But where is the evidence that Johnson can improve
a pitching staff? In 1998, he was traded to LA, where he replaced a catcher
(Mike Piazza) with a reputation for poor defense, but the Dodgers allowed
more runs with Johnson behind the plate than with Piazza. A year later,
he went to Baltimore, which allowed more runs than they had the year before.
Last year, the Orioles pitchers were better after Johnson left for Chicago
than they were while he was behind the plate, while the White Sox staff
was only marginally better with Johnson catching.
The truth is, nobody knows how to measure the effect of a catcher who
handles pitchers well, so these examples don't prove anything. But I think
it's worth noting that it's not a foregone conclusion that the Marlins
pitching will improve. And we'll never really know. If they don't get
better next year, the media will probably chalk it up to the normal struggles
of young pitchers. If they do improve, Johnson will probably get a lot
of the credit, even though some improvement is to be expected for a group
of highly-regarded and very inexperienced young hurlers.
The bottom line is that this team was average or below-average offensively
at every position last year. Their pitching staff was only average, despite
playing in the one of the league's best parks for pitchers. And they made
only one significant move in the off-season. If this squad wins 81 games
in 2001, it will represent another meaningful step forward.
And if it turns out that way -- if management's claim of being a legitimate
contender is revealed as just a little hype designed to sell tickets --
I hope Marlins fans aren't disappointed. Because 81 wins from this group
-- a young, improving team that still has a bunch of terrific prospects
in the minors -- could be a harbinger of a long period of sustained excellence.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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