2000 Post-Season Review -- Houston Astros
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
February 7, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Houston Astros performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 845 938
Runs allowed 741 944
Run Margin +104 -6
Wins 93 72
Pythagorean wins 92 80
Placement 1st 4th
Things couldn't have been much worse for Houston in 2000, as the excitement
generated by the debut of new Enron Field wasn't nearly great enough to
counter the tidal wave of despair caused by the Astros' sorry play.
After making it to the post-season for three consecutive years, Houston
fielded a team that was projected by many to win its division. Instead,
the Astros finished fourth in their inaugural season at Enron, 23 games
behind St. Louis. Amazingly, Houston's awful start (9-14, .391 in April)
wasn't close to the low point for the year, as the Astros played even
worse in May (10-19, .345), finishing the month in last place in the NL
Central, 10.5 games back.
The downtrodden team then sank to a depth almost beyond belief in June
when Houston lost 19 of 27 games (.296) and ended the month 20 hopeless
games out of first. Manager Larry Dierker, a hero to most Astros fans
and a saint to more than a few, heard many call loudly for his head as
more than a few players anonymously ripped him in the media.
What the Astros put on the field was sad enough, but what was missing
aggravated the situation further. Armchair GMs lambasted the team's brain
trust (especially GM Gerry Hunsicker) for its cost-cutting off-season
moves. As Carl Everett's bat powered the Red Sox into first place in the
AL East in mid-May, the wisdom of trading the malcontent center fielder
(to avoid signing him to an expensive long-term deal) was loudly questioned.
As Mike Hampton's strong left arm kept the Mets in contention in the NL
East, Octavio Dotel's struggles in the Houston rotation were magnified.
As Tim Bogar reminded old-timers of Ray Oyler early in the season, pundits
delighted in pointing to expatriate Ricky Gutierrez' surprising play in
Chicago.
Key Position Players
The Astros lineup scored almost a hundred runs more than projected in
2000, but that figure is certainly deceptive. The 19% boost given the
offense by the new ballpark, quickly dubbed "Ten-run Field" for all the
double-digit scores posted there, accounted for most of the offensive
overage.
One thing that was lost in all the wailing and gnashing of pitchers'
teeth was that too much focus was placed on the short left field fence
and the cavernous center field at Enron. The plain fact is that the new
pleasure palace was downright friendly to all hitters, as lefty swingers
took even more advantage of the new venue than righties did. However,
none of this should obscure the monster seasons posted by Richard Hidalgo
and Moises Alou, who terrorized opposing hurlers across the league regardless
of whether they were in Houston or abroad.
Tony Eusebio, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 456 121 20 1 6 44 58 1 53 5 83 0 0 .265 .342 .353 .696 55
Prorated Hou 222 59 10 0 3 21 28 0 26 2 40 0 0 .265 .342 .353 .696 27
Actual Hou 218 61 18 0 7 24 33 4 25 2 45 0 0 .280 .361 .459 .820 36
Eusebio produced a bit more offense than expected last season; a 24-game
hitting streak in July and August helped. He did not fare well in Enron
Field (.243, two homers). Astros pitchers enjoy throwing to Eusebio, who
has soft hands and presents a good target. He'll be around again as a
backup, this year to Brad Ausmus.
Mitch Meluskey, c, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 109 32 9 0 4 18 16 1 18 2 17 1 0 .294 .395 .486 .882 21
Prorated Hou 338 99 28 0 12 56 50 3 56 6 53 3 0 .294 .395 .486 .882 66
Actual Hou 337 101 21 0 14 47 69 4 55 10 74 1 0 .300 .401 .487 .888 69
Meluskey's first full season in the majors was eventful. He slugged a
few homers (though he did punch 11 of his 14 round-trippers at Enron),
slugged or threatened to slug a few teammates, and got on base effectively.
One would expect his power production to dip this season in the more spacious
confines of Comerica Park, but he could still hit for a high average.
However, Meluskey did not win any raves for his throwing or his catching
skills. He also hit just .193 against southpaws. What led to the trade
to Detroit was his oversized ego -- illustrated by a silly fistfight over
batting cage privileges that Meluskey picked with veteran outfielder Matt
Mieske -- helped shred the receiver's reputation in the Astros clubhouse.
Raul Chavez, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 68 15 3 0 0 7 8 1 5 0 10 0 0 .221 .280 .265 .545 5
Prorated Hou 43 9 2 0 0 4 5 1 3 0 6 0 0 .221 .280 .265 .545 3
Actual Hou 43 11 2 0 1 3 5 0 3 2 6 0 0 .256 .298 .372 .670 3
The former Expos and Mariners backup isn't much of a hitter and threw
out just two of 11 base stealers for Houston last year.
Jeff Bagwell, 1b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 555 166 33 0 37 131 115 9 124 11 104 21 8 .299 .431 .559 .989 141
Prorated Hou 575 172 34 0 38 136 119 9 128 11 108 22 8 .299 .431 .559 .989 146
Actual Hou 590 183 37 1 47 152 132 15 107 11 116 9 6 .310 .424 .615 1.039 156
The star first sacker had another big season, finishing third in the
NL with a career-best 47 dingers and leading the NL in runs. The only
surprise on the surface was Bagwell's lack of basestealing; 2000 was the
first time he didn't have a double figure in swipes since his rookie season
of 1992.
Nevertheless, a closer look reveals some danger signs. How about this
to show the effects of Enron Field? Bagwell in 1999 led the Senior Circuit
with 30 road homers. Last year, he paced the league with 28 long balls
at home. There is reason to believe that Bagwell might be declining; in
away games last season, he hit "just" .270 with 19 home runs. That's good,
but hardly superstar level.
Craig Biggio, 2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 598 178 47 1 17 113 73 14 72 7 97 28 10 .298 .383 .465 .848 113
Prorated Hou 403 120 32 1 11 76 49 9 48 5 65 19 7 .298 .383 .465 .848 76
Actual Hou 377 101 13 5 8 67 35 16 61 3 73 12 2 .268 .388 .393 .780 64
The 13-year veteran's season was ended in August by two torn knee ligaments,
but Biggio wasn't hitting well even before the injury. His poor performance
in Enron Field (.259 with little power) was a surprise, but even odder
was the sense that Biggio had lost some of his fire. Perhaps his body
has simply begun to give out after so many seasons of all-out play, or
perhaps the failure of the team took some of the wind out of Biggio's
sails.
Whatever the reason for his decline, Biggio must regain his edge in 2001
as well as show that his left knee can stand the strain of everyday play
at second base. His range was near average levels last season and he continues
to turn the double play effectively.
Keith Ginter, 2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Hou 8 2 0 0 1 3 3 0 1 0 3 0 0 .250 .300 .625 .925 2
A fringe prospect heading into 2000, Ginter batted .333 at Double-A Round
Rock with 26 homers to win Texas League MVP honors. Scouts remain unimpressed,
and unless Craig Biggio can't make it back in the spring, Ginter will
probably begin 2001 in the minors.
Ken Caminiti, 3b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 534 146 33 0 27 99 101 4 88 6 105 7 2 .273 .375 .487 .862 103
Prorated Hou 213 58 13 0 11 39 40 2 35 2 42 3 1 .273 .375 .487 .862 41
Actual Hou 208 63 13 0 15 42 45 1 42 8 37 3 0 .303 .419 .582 1.001 52
Substance abuse problems and a ruptured wrist tendon destroyed Caminiti's
2000 campaign. He has signed with Texas for 2001. When healthy, Caminiti
played well for the Astros, but it's not likely that he can remain off
the injured rolls for a full season. Defensively, he is no longer all
you might want as a third baseman, as his range and ability to field balls
cleanly have declined somewhat. His determination and grit are beyond
reproach; his long-term prognosis and his declining abilities are not.
Bill Spiers, 3b/ss/2b/lf/rf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 82 22 4 1 1 13 9 0 10 0 10 2 1 .268 .348 .378 .726 11
Prorated Hou 365 98 18 4 4 58 40 0 44 0 44 9 4 .268 .348 .378 .726 49
Actual Hou 355 107 17 3 3 41 43 1 49 3 38 7 4 .301 .386 .392 .777 56
The veteran has become an almost frighteningly consistent player for
the Astros, hitting for average and drawing walks while filling in all
over the diamond. He loves hitting in Enron Field (.337 in 2000), which
helps account for his surprising batting average. Spiers is a solid third
baseman with good mobility and hands, but playing as often as he does
indicates that the Astros are well short of a championship-quality regular
at a key offensive position.
Chris Truby, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 70 15 3 0 2 9 10 0 4 0 12 2 1 .214 .253 .343 .596 6
Prorated Hou 260 56 11 0 7 33 37 0 15 0 45 7 4 .214 .253 .343 .596 22
Actual Hou 258 67 15 4 11 28 59 5 10 1 56 2 1 .260 .295 .477 .772 36
Ken Caminiti's injury troubles gave Truby a chance to play, and he took
advantage of the friendly dimensions at Enron Field (10 2B and nine HR
in 144 at-bats). However, he hit poorly on the road, didn't get on base
nearly enough, and showed both an erratic arm and questionable hands at
the hot corner. Truby is not that young, and his sporadic power isn't
nearly enough to make up for his overall lack of major league-regular
ability.
Morgan Ensberg, 3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Hou 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .286 .286 .286 .571 1
Ensberg will start the 2001 season in the minors but is likely to get
called up in case of injuries. He has some pop and can play both third
and first.
Tim Bogar, ss/2b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 493 108 23 2 6 64 45 6 52 6 85 5 5 .219 .299 .310 .609 45
Prorated Hou 311 68 15 1 4 40 28 4 33 4 54 3 3 .219 .299 .310 .609 28
Actual Hou 304 63 9 2 7 32 33 3 35 7 56 1 1 .207 .292 .319 .611 27
The Astros' decision to enter the season with Bogar, a weak hitter with
only average defensive skills, at shortstop was one reason the team sank
without a trace. The former utility player couldn't even meet the low
expectations that Houston had for him in 2000. He batted just .165 on
the road, and only a .295 August and .263 September got him over the Mendoza
Line. For a steady shortstop with average range, Bogar's offense was intolerable,
and 2000 was probably his last chance at anything approaching regular
duty. He'll go to spring training with the Dodgers this year.
Julio Lugo, ss/2b/of, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 69 18 3 0 1 10 5 0 6 0 8 3 1 .261 .320 .348 .668 8
Prorated Hou 428 112 19 0 6 62 31 0 37 0 50 19 6 .261 .320 .348 .668 49
Actual Hou 420 119 22 5 10 78 40 4 37 0 93 22 9 .283 .346 .431 .777 63
Injuries and slumps affecting other players gave Lugo plenty of playing
time, and he exceeded expectations at bat and on the bases. He hit .342
with five homers in September to put a nice sheen on his first season,
but his strikeout numbers are somewhat troublesome. Lugo, trained at shortstop,
played well enough at his prime position but did not show enough range
to handle second base in Craig Biggio's absence. If he is healthy, the
speedy and athletic Lugo should be the Astros' everyday shortstop in 2001
and is young enough to continue his development in all areas.
Russ Johnson, ss/3b/2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 63 17 4 0 1 11 8 0 10 0 10 1 1 .270 .365 .381 .746 9
Prorated Hou 40 11 3 0 1 7 5 0 6 0 6 1 1 .270 .365 .381 .746 6
Actual Hou 45 8 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 0 10 1 1 .178 .213 .178 .391 1
Prorated Tam 181 49 11 0 3 32 23 0 29 0 29 3 3 .270 .365 .381 .746 27
Actual Tam 185 47 8 0 2 28 17 1 25 0 30 4 1 .254 .344 .330 .674 23
Prorated Tot 221 60 14 0 4 39 28 0 35 0 35 4 4 .270 .365 .381 .746 33
Actual Tot 230 55 8 0 2 32 20 1 27 0 40 5 2 .239 .320 .300 .620 23
The former Astros first-round draft choice was dealt to Tampa Bay in
late May for pitcher Marc Valdes.
Daryle Ward, lf/1b/rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 69 20 4 0 4 11 14 0 6 1 11 0 0 .290 .347 .522 .868 12
Prorated Hou 259 75 15 0 15 41 52 0 22 4 41 0 0 .290 .347 .522 .868 45
Actual Hou 264 68 10 2 20 36 47 0 15 2 61 0 0 .258 .295 .538 .833 40
Did Ward get pull-happy last season playing in Enron Field and forget
about putting the ball in play? The numbers say he did. Ward hit 13 homers
in home games, but he fanned once in every four at-bats both at home and
on the road. Since he isn't fast and has terrible range in left field,
Ward has to make more of his offensive gifts than the occasional booming
home run. With Lance Berkman a year younger and already having passed
him by as the 'stros' young power threat, 2001 could well be a make-or-break
year for Ward.
Matt Mieske, lf/rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 68 18 3 0 3 10 10 0 6 1 13 0 0 .265 .320 .441 .761 9
Prorated Hou 81 21 4 0 4 12 12 0 7 1 15 0 0 .265 .320 .441 .761 11
Actual Hou 81 14 1 2 1 7 5 1 7 0 17 0 0 .173 .247 .272 .519 5
Prorated Ari 9 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .265 .320 .441 .761 1
Actual Ari 8 2 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 .250 .300 .625 .925 2
Prorated Tot 90 24 4 0 4 13 13 0 8 1 17 0 0 .265 .320 .441 .761 12
Actual Tot 89 16 1 2 2 10 7 1 8 0 18 0 0 .180 .253 .303 .556 7
Mieske has been able to last because of his ability to hit left-handed
pitching, but he batted just .130 (6-for-46) against southpaws last year.
Since he lacks speed and defensive ability, Mieske can't ever afford to
slump if he wants to hang around. The Astros released him in August.
Roger Cedeno, cf/lf/rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 612 180 34 6 8 113 54 3 83 3 127 57 15 .294 .380 .408 .788 106
Prorated Hou 264 78 15 3 3 49 23 1 36 1 55 25 6 .294 .380 .408 .788 46
Actual Hou 259 73 2 5 6 54 26 0 43 0 47 25 11 .282 .383 .398 .781 42
While his 2000 performance wasn't bad -- he got on base and stole bases
-- Cedeno was viewed as a disappointment in Houston. Injuries to both
hands, which cost him 75 games in June and July, had something to do with
that. An almost laughable total of two -- yes, two -- doubles in
259 at-bats also engendered negative attention.
Defensively, Cedeno is of questionable value. He lacks the range to excel
in center field, especially one as big as Houston's, and does not have
enough arm strength to be helpful in right. His fielding skills will be
stretched again this season in spacious Comerica Park, as the Tigers acquired
him in December.
Richard Hidalgo, cf/rf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 545 137 37 2 19 75 83 6 62 2 86 8 7 .251 .331 .431 .762 78
Prorated Hou 566 142 38 2 20 78 86 6 64 2 89 8 7 .251 .331 .431 .762 81
Actual Hou 558 175 42 3 44 118 122 21 56 3 110 13 6 .314 .391 .636 1.028 140
Hidalgo enjoyed a monster 2000 season. However, the two events weren't
related in the obvious way: while Hidalgo batted .316 in his new digs,
he batted .311 and slugged 28 of his homers on the road. Key to his big
season was a dramatic improvement against righties, against whom he had
batted just .228 in 1999. Last year Hidalgo hit .308 and slugged .646
against them, picking on fastballs early in the count and driving them.
Combining a power bat with good range in the field, Hidalgo would seem
to be on the fast track to stardom. However, there is concern that his
knees may not be able to handle the demands of everyday duty in center
field. Hidalgo missed two months in 1999 due to an inflamed left knee
that required surgery.
Glen Barker, cf/rf/lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 64 16 3 0 1 13 6 1 7 0 15 6 2 .250 .329 .344 .673 8
Prorated Hou 66 16 3 0 1 13 6 1 7 0 15 6 2 .250 .329 .344 .673 9
Actual Hou 67 15 2 1 2 18 6 1 7 0 23 9 6 .224 .307 .373 .680 7
Barker is a true center fielder who has shown excellent range in the
past, but doesn't do anything else well enough to be more than a fifth
outfielder and pinch runner.
Moises Alou, rf/lf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 545 161 31 5 29 95 111 4 73 9 80 8 3 .295 .380 .530 .910 111
Prorated Hou 449 133 26 4 24 78 92 3 60 7 66 7 2 .295 .380 .530 .910 92
Actual Hou 454 161 28 2 30 82 114 2 52 4 45 3 3 .355 .416 .623 1.039 112
Alou had another big showing for Houston, coming back strong from a torn
knee ligament that caused him to miss all of the 1999 season. He hit for
power both at home and on the road and batted .362 in away games. Defensively,
his injuries have reduced him to poor range, but Alou does contribute
enough with the bat to make up for his lack of mobility. The high points
of Alou's career are of Hall of Fame caliber; unfortunately, there haven't
been enough of those to assure immortality, but he remains a terrific
hitter.
Lance Berkman, rf/lf/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 65 17 4 0 3 10 11 0 10 1 12 1 0 .262 .360 .462 .822 11
Prorated Hou 361 95 22 0 17 56 61 0 56 6 67 6 0 .262 .360 .462 .822 61
Actual Hou 353 105 28 1 21 76 67 1 56 1 73 6 2 .297 .388 .561 .949 81
The formerly up-and-down Berkman, stuck for a year on a Houston-to-New
Orleans shuttle, finally got a chance to play in 2000 and made the most
of it. However, he hit just .218 in 78 at-bats against lefties, making
it likely that Berkman will have to fight for full-time play. As long
as he hits for power and gets on base, Berkman will get 400 at-bats a
season, even though his range is below average. Berkman is still young
enough to grow as a hitter.
Key Pitchers
Houston's pitching problems in 2000 can be epitomized by Jose Lima's
precipitous decline. After winning 21 games while losing only 10 in 1999,
Lima lost 16 of 23 decisions in 2000 as his ERA shot up by more than three
full runs! Lima led the NL in runs and earned runs allowed, while his
48 home runs allowed completed a triple crown of ignominy.
If Lima's problems weren't enough to seal the Astros' fate, then the
complete collapse of fireballing closer Billy Wagner added the coup de
grace. Wagner looked nothing like his 100 mph self early in the year before
he was disabled, as elbow problems robbed him of his speed and his ability
to get anyone out. Except for young Scott Elarton, who made a promising
comeback from arm problems to post a 17-7 record, every other important
member of the Astros' pitching staff disappointed last year.
Jose Lima, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 3.96 32 32 13 10 0 218 220 28 41 148 .263 .724
Prorated Hou 3.96 32 32 13 10 0 218 220 28 41 148 .263 .724
Actual Hou 6.65 33 33 7 16 0 196 251 48 68 124 .313 .942
Lima's 2000 season was one of the worst slumps ever, a train wreck of
historic proportions. On only a couple of occasions did he even string
two good starts together; Lima allowed five or more earned runs in 15
of his appearances. His ERA was a rancid 6.92 at home and a very poor
6.32 on the road.
In his defense, however, it must be said that Lima was unlucky at times,
and he hung in there regardless of how tough things got. He didn't shirk
from taking the ball, and his stuff appeared to be as good as ever. It
was just a terrible season, made worse by his reported stubborn unwillingness
to take advice from his pitching coach and manager. Everyone involved
expects Lima to be much, much better in 2001.
Shane Reynolds, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.33 32 32 12 12 0 214 234 24 47 167 .280 .750
Prorated Hou 4.33 21 21 8 8 0 140 154 16 31 110 .280 .750
Actual Hou 5.22 22 22 7 8 0 131 150 20 45 93 .287 .820
Reynolds had some excellent stretches in 2000, but his season was torpedoed
by back problems. He was very effective in April and May, but began to
slide soon after. In his final seven starts, Reynolds was 1-5 with a 10.90
ERA. After a one-inning appearance on July 29, he was disabled by the
Astros for the remainder of the year due to the degeneration of several
disks in his back. Given the seriousness of that injury, it's reasonable
to question whether he can return at age 33 to his former level of effectiveness.
Adding to his woes is a knee injury (hurt while jogging in December) that
is expected to keep him out until May.
Octavio Dotel, starter/closer, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.41 32 32 11 11 0 190 170 27 102 202 .239 .764
Prorated Hou 4.41 22 22 7 7 0 129 115 18 69 137 .239 .764
Actual Hou 5.40 50 16 3 7 16 125 127 26 61 142 .265 .842
Dotel began the 2000 season in the Astros' rotation, but struggled and
was moved to the bullpen in early July when Billy Wagner went down for
the count. While Dotel has a tremendous arm and great potential, he hasn't
fully committed himself to relief and would rather start.
He did have several dominating starts last season and showed great stuff
with the Mets previously as well. Given time and some improvement of command,
Dotel could be a 15-18 game winner. While it is tough to judge his 2000
season by the numbers, because he was asked to change gears in mid-season,
it is clear that without much better control of his pitches and his emotions,
Dotel won't reach his potential. The Astros hope that they won't have
to count on Dotel for late-relief work in 2001, but if Billy Wagner isn't
healthy, they may have to ask him again to fill a role he doesn't like.
Scott Elarton, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 3.59 27 27 10 6 0 166 147 15 66 151 .237 .681
Prorated Hou 3.59 33 33 12 7 0 202 179 18 80 184 .237 .681
Actual Hou 4.81 30 30 17 7 0 193 198 29 84 131 .263 .793
Elarton's season was at times very good and at times very bad. When he
pitched well, he won. When he pitched badly, he pitched really badly
-- he had seven starts in which he allowed at least six earned runs.
From April through June, Elarton got his clock cleaned but picked up
wins. He came alive in July (3-2, 2.55) and in August was 5-0 with a 3.21
ERA. Again, in September, he was hit hard, but he worked his innings and
overall had a good season.
Elarton walked a lot of batters and had an 4.55 ERA on the road. At home,
his ERA was higher at home (5.04), making his won-lost record far from
the best indicator of his overall effectiveness. However, to come back
from shoulder surgery and win 17 games in just 30 starts is impressive.
Should Elarton remain healthy, he should bring down his ERA substantially
in 2001.
Chris Holt, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.96 27 27 8 10 0 158 189 13 56 104 .301 .785
Prorated Hou 4.96 35 35 10 13 0 206 247 17 73 136 .301 .785
Actual Hou 5.35 34 32 8 16 0 207 247 22 75 136 .304 .822
Holt can't really blame his miserable 2000 season on Enron Field: in
road games, he was 4-10 with a 5.88 ERA. His control isn't nearly good
enough right now to survive with the stuff he has. However, Holt is durable
and will take the ball, two qualities that will endear him to manager
Phil Garner this year in Detroit.
Wade Miller, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 5.48 4 4 1 1 0 23 25 4 11 17 .278 .848
Prorated Hou 5.48 17 17 4 4 0 100 109 17 48 74 .278 .848
Actual Hou 5.14 16 16 6 6 0 105 104 14 42 89 .257 .749
Miller joined the Astros on July 5 and established himself as part of
their rotation immediately. Pitching for a struggling team in an unfriendly
ballpark, Miller showed excellent stuff. Take away one outing where he
allowed nine earned runs in 4.2 innings on August 23 and Miller's freshman
performance looks even better. He pitched his best ball as the season
progressed, whiffing 35 and walking just 13 in 42.1 September innings,
going 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA. At his age and with Houston's rotation needs,
Miller's future should be bright.
Tony McKnight, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.78 23 0 2 2 0 32 33 5 12 21 .268 .799
Prorated Hou 4.78 26 0 2 2 0 36 37 6 14 24 .268 .799
Actual Hou 3.86 6 6 4 1 0 35 35 4 9 23 .245 .674
Called up by the Astros on August 10, McKnight had just a 4-8 record
and a 4.56 ERA at Triple-A after suffering some early-season shoulder
soreness. He pitched quite well for Houston, experiencing just one bad
start, and was especially effective (3-0, 2.38, 15 Ks and 3 walks in 22
innings) in road games. The Astros have always liked McKnight's command,
curve ball, and attitude, and will consider him for a starting berth in
2001. Injuries are the only concern facing him.
Brian Powell, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Hou 5.74 9 5 2 1 0 31 34 8 13 14 .279 .905
Called to Houston on August 1 when Shane Reynolds was shut down with
back problems, Powell made five starts for the Astros, failing to impress
anyone. He was shunted back to the bullpen later in the month and now
is seen as a tenth pitcher at best.
Jose Cabrera, long reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 2.85 53 0 5 2 0 79 63 9 23 62 .219 .653
Prorated Hou 2.85 44 0 4 2 0 66 53 8 19 52 .219 .653
Actual Hou 5.92 52 0 2 3 2 59 74 10 17 41 .308 .887
Cabrera's disappointing 2000 performance really hurt the Astros, who
were hungry for any reliable reliever they could find. He pitched badly
at home and on the road, against lefties and righties, and at all points
during the season. Cabrera has superb, hard stuff and will get another
shot at the bullpen this year, but he won't expand his role without an
improvement in command.
Doug Henry, long reliever, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.42 40 0 3 3 0 53 54 8 30 43 .265 .807
Prorated Hou 4.42 38 0 3 3 0 50 51 8 28 40 .265 .807
Actual Hou 4.42 45 0 1 3 1 53 39 10 28 46 .204 .733
Prorated SF 4.42 18 0 1 1 0 24 25 4 14 20 .265 .807
Actual SF 2.49 27 0 3 1 0 25 18 2 21 16 .214 .695
Prorated Tot 4.42 56 0 4 4 0 74 75 11 42 60 .265 .807
Actual Tot 3.79 72 0 4 4 1 78 57 12 49 62 .207 .722
The Astros got a good half-season out of veteran reliever Henry, then
dealt him to the Giants on July 30 for Scott Linebrink, a promising righty.
Henry is now with the Royals.
Jay Powell, middle reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 3.64 70 0 6 4 3 96 95 6 45 83 .260 .715
Prorated Hou 3.64 21 0 2 1 1 29 29 2 14 25 .260 .715
Actual Hou 5.67 29 0 1 1 0 27 29 1 19 16 .271 .736
Three separate stints on the disabled list gutted Powell's 2000 campaign.
The hard-throwing right-hander is a valuable setup pitcher when healthy.
Unfortunately, he underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in August and
is questionable for 2001.
Mike Maddux, middle reliever, age 38
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.14 30 0 2 2 0 41 44 4 16 29 .275 .759
Prorated Hou 4.14 21 0 1 1 0 29 31 3 11 21 .275 .759
Actual Hou 6.26 21 0 2 2 0 27 31 6 12 17 .282 .851
The veteran right-hander made the Astros out of spring training but was
hit hard enough that he was released on July 5. He has now retired.
Wayne Franklin, middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Hou 5.48 25 0 0 0 0 21 24 2 12 21 .282 .800
Franklin's training has been as a lefty spot reliever, and he filled
that role for the 'stros in 2000. He didn't really do it all that well;
lefty batters hit .256 against Franklin, and righties really teed off
(.908 OPS). However, he has a better arm than most southpaws of his type
and has a good chance to make the team out of spring training.
Scott Linebrink, middle reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SF 7.02 3 3 1 1 0 17 20 4 9 15 .303 .935
Prorated SF 7.02 1 1 0 0 0 3 4 1 2 3 .303 .935
Actual SF 11.57 3 0 0 0 0 2 7 1 2 0 .500 1.277
Prorated Hou 7.02 2 2 1 1 0 10 12 2 5 9 .303 .935
Actual Hou 4.66 8 0 0 0 0 10 11 3 6 6 .289 1.004
Prorated Tot 7.02 2 2 1 1 0 13 16 3 7 12 .303 .935
Actual Tot 6.00 11 0 0 0 0 12 18 4 8 6 .346 1.076
A sinker/slider pitcher coming off 1999 shoulder surgery, Linebrink has
skill but may need a little more time at Triple-A to get his game back.
Jason Green, middle reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Hou 6.62 14 0 1 1 0 18 15 3 20 19 .234 .814
Green doesn't have great stuff but did post 15 saves and eight wins at
Double-A before a promotion to Triple-A. The Astros called him up on July
22, and again on August 17, but he didn't impress. The Rockies picked
him off the waiver wire in October and will throw him into the mix this
spring.
Rusty Meacham, middle reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 7.16 13 0 1 1 0 16 23 3 7 14 .338 .976
Prorated Hou 7.16 4 0 0 0 0 5 7 1 2 4 .338 .976
Actual Hou 11.57 5 0 0 0 0 5 8 3 2 3 .381 1.244
Meacham has good command of marginal stuff, which earned him a call-up
in 2000. He doesn't really have enough ability to stick around for more
than a few days at a time at the big-league level. He'll be in camp with
Tampa Bay this spring.
Yorkis Perez, lefty setup, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 3.86 70 0 4 3 1 72 68 8 35 58 .248 .745
Prorated Hou 3.86 25 0 1 1 0 25 24 3 12 20 .248 .745
Actual Hou 5.16 33 0 2 1 0 23 25 4 14 21 .266 .812
At one time, Perez was a quality lefty spot reliever, but he's lost a
little bit of command and a little bit of velocity, and his career has
run aground. He has signed with Los Angeles' Triple-A club for 2001.
Joe Slusarski, setup man, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 5.58 30 0 1 3 0 40 49 6 14 23 .302 .857
Prorated Hou 5.58 55 0 2 5 0 73 89 11 25 42 .302 .857
Actual Hou 4.21 54 0 2 7 3 77 80 8 22 54 .268 .749
Perhaps the best indication that 2001 was a lost season for Houston is
that Slusarski led the staff in appearances. He's a marginal, aging right-hander
with nothing going for him except that he was willing and able to take
the ball. Slusarski signed with the Braves in January as a free agent.
Marc Valdes, setup man, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.19 11 0 1 1 0 17 19 3 7 10 .284 .818
Prorated Hou 5.19 38 0 3 3 0 59 65 10 24 34 .284 .818
Actual Hou 5.08 53 0 5 5 2 57 69 3 25 35 .301 .781
Another marginal arm who got plenty of duty on an injury-ridden Astros'
staff, Valdes allowed both lefties and righties to hit .300. He has a
good sinking fastball when it sinks, but too often he got into trouble
falling behind in the count. Like his Houston teammate Joe Slusarski,
Valdes has inked a Triple-A deal with the Braves for 2001.
Billy Wagner, closer, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 1.78 70 0 6 3 56 81 49 7 29 116 .174 .530
Prorated Hou 1.78 29 0 2 1 23 33 20 3 12 48 .174 .530
Actual Hou 6.18 28 0 2 4 6 28 28 6 18 28 .255 .864
Wagner pitched poorly in 2000, and in June it was revealed that he had
a torn tendon in his pitching elbow. Surgery shelved him for the season,
and Wagner's ability to come back to his former level is in doubt. At
his best, Wagner is a dominating strikeout pitcher who shuts down lefties
and is even better against right-handed batters. If Wagner is not able
to return to form in 2001, the Astros' chances to contend will be substantially
less.
Outlook
The Astros improved dramatically in the second half of 2000, winning
33 of their last 57 games and climbing over Pittsburgh and Chicago in
the standings. Their strong finish gave some reason to believe that the
2001 season holds promise of a return to contention.
As was true a year ago, there will be quite a few changes in the Astros'
roster for 2001. Veteran Ken Caminiti was gone shortly after the season
ended. Houston traded catcher Mitch Meluskey, outfielder Roger Cedeno,
and pitcher Chris Holt to Detroit for backstop Brad Ausmus and pitchers
Doug Brocail and Nelson Cruz. The loss of Meluskey's power will hurt,
but Ausmus' experience and sterling defense should help out the Houston
staff and Brocail and Cruz could help the team put together a solid bullpen.
Perhaps the most important move the team made in the off-season was the
signing of Richard Hidalgo to a four-year contract. Houston also tinkered
around the margins by signing starting pitcher Kent Bottenfield, relief
pitcher Mike Jackson, and infielders Jose Vizcaino and Charlie Hayes.
As with any team that experienced wholesale disaster the previous year,
Houston's fortunes for the upcoming season are clouded with question marks.
The Astros will find it hard to contend without comebacks by either Biggio
or Wagner. Houston's chances chances brighten considerably in 2001 if
those two rebound, if Lima returns to respectability, if Elarton can take
over the role of rotation anchor, if Dotel can develop into a reliable
starter, closer, or setup pitcher, and if their pitiful record in one-run
games (15-31 last year) returns to normal.
However, that's more than enough ifs to fill up a semi-vacant, outmoded,
ugly old domed stadium marooned in a giant parking lot in south Houston.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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