2000 Post-Season Review -- Kansas City Royals
By Tom Tippett
February 9, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Kansas City Royals performed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 835 879
Runs allowed 920 930
Run Margin -85 -51
Wins 73 77
Pythagorean wins 73 76
Placement 3rd 4th
What a difference a year makes. The 1999 Royals were outscored by 65
runs, a margin that normally produces 75 wins, but they won only 64 games
because they had a horrible 11-32 record in one-run games. Their offense
was good, but their pitching, especially the bullpen, was awful.
A year later, the 2000 Royals were outscored by 51 runs, a margin that
normally produces 76 wins. This time, they won 77 games even though their
pitching, especially the bullpen, was awful once again. Why? Mostly because
their record in one-run games improved to 21-26. In other words, the Royals
won 13 more games but weren't really that much better. It's just that
their luck was horrible in 1999 and average last year.
Last year's edition kicked off the season with some improbable late-inning
rallies, but the young pitching staff wasn't able to sustain any momentum.
The team hovered around the .500 mark for two months, then dropped ten
games below that mark by the end of July before finishing with a 30-28
record over the last two months. In other words, they never really got
hot, and were never really in the race.
Key Position Players
In 1998, the Royals finished 13th in team offense, then lost two of their
best hitters (Dean Palmer and Jose Offerman) to free agency after that
season. In the two years since, the lineup has been retooled to great
effect -- KC was 5th in the AL in scoring last year.
Before the 1999 season, we figured they'd be much better thanks to the
addition of three promising kids -- Carlos Febles, Jeremy Giambi, and
Carlos Beltran. We were right about the increase but wrong about the reasons.
Giambi was a non-factor before being traded to Oakland, and while Febles
and Beltran have had some success, they've had their difficulties, too.
The real reason for the ascent in the rankings is the development of Mike
Sweeney, Jermaine Dye, and Johnny Damon. Replacing Palmer with Joe Randa
has also been a factor insomuch as they didn't feel the loss of Palmer's
bat as much as they could have.
The 2000 team got no offense from the C, SS and 2B positions. Febles
and Beltran each missed half the season and were disappointing the other
half. But the core of the lineup -- Damon, Dye, Sweeney, Randa, and Mark
Quinn -- was extremely healthy and very productive. Except for Quinn,
who had 500 atbats despite spending two weeks in the minors, each of those
players netted over 600 atbats. And they're the reason why KC scored 44
more runs than projected despite the lack of support from the other positions.
Brian Johnson, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 474 117 20 2 20 55 65 4 40 5 92 0 1 .247 .310 .424 .734 59
Prorated KC 119 29 5 1 5 14 16 1 10 1 23 0 0 .247 .310 .424 .734 15
Actual KC 125 26 6 0 4 9 18 0 4 0 28 0 0 .208 .229 .352 .581 9
For several years, Kansas City fans heard about two very good catcher
prospects -- Mike Sweeney and Sal Fasano -- who were moving up through
the farm system and would someday make an impact for the Royals. Sweeney
is a star now, but at first base, not catcher. And Fasano, who never showed
that he could hit big-league pitching, was sold to Oakland as spring training
came to a close last year. So the Royals found themselves trying to cobble
together a solution at a position that was once considered an organizational
strength.
Even though Johnson had never been a #1 catcher (only 1286 career atbats
with four previous teams), he appeared to have won the starting job when
Fasano was traded away. But he never got things going at the plate, threw
out only 17% of opposing runners, and was released on the last day of
June. He recently signed a minor-league contract with the Dodgers.
Gregg Zaun, c, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 84 18 3 0 2 9 10 0 11 1 11 1 0 .214 .302 .321 .624 9
Prorated KC 244 52 9 0 6 26 29 0 32 3 32 3 0 .214 .302 .321 .624 25
Actual KC 234 64 11 0 7 36 33 3 43 3 34 7 3 .274 .390 .410 .800 41
Zaun entered the season as a well-traveled backup with a .236 career
average, a good batting eye, and below-average power. This was arguably
his best season to date, and he might have set a career high for atbats
if not for a sprained right elbow that cost him six weeks. The switch-hitting
Zaun played more often and did his best work in the second half, and that
should earn him even more playing time in 2001.
Jorge Fabregas, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 67 14 2 0 1 6 8 0 6 1 8 0 0 .209 .270 .284 .554 5
Prorated KC 136 28 4 0 2 12 16 0 12 2 16 0 0 .209 .270 .284 .554 10
Actual KC 142 40 4 0 3 13 17 0 8 1 11 1 0 .282 .320 .373 .693 17
A light-hitting reserve catcher, Fabregas wore the uniform of six different
teams in the three years prior to joining the Royals last season. He moved
among the Royals, the minors and the disabled list (a six week stint for
an inflamed right elbow) before going on a little streak that raised his
batting average by thirty points during the last two weeks of the season.
He was the only Royals catcher to have any success (40%) throwing out
enemy base stealers. Fabregas became a free agent after the season and
signed with Anaheim.
Hector Ortiz, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual KC 88 34 6 0 0 15 5 1 8 1 8 0 0 .386 .443 .455 .898 19
Hmmm. What should we make of this? Here's a guy whose big-league career
prior to age 30 consisted four atbats and whose on-base percentages
and slugging percentages were under .300 for most of his minor-league
seasons. Then something changed two years ago. In a combined 391 atbats
at AAA in 1999-2000, Ortiz batted over .300 with moderate power, and then
hit .386 in the majors. As a result, he'll be in the mix for at least
a platoon role in 2001.
Mike Sweeney, 1b/dh, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 579 171 39 2 21 93 96 9 56 1 63 5 2 .295 .365 .478 .843 99
Prorated KC 641 189 43 2 23 103 106 10 62 1 70 6 2 .295 .365 .478 .843 110
Actual KC 618 206 30 0 29 105 144 15 71 5 67 8 3 .333 .407 .523 .930 136
A catcher in the minor leagues, Sweeney didn't bust out at the plate
until he was moved to first base when Jeff King suddenly retired a few
weeks into the 1999 season. Since then, he's been one of the top RBI men
in the league, topping the century mark in 1999 and finishing only one
behind the league leader (Edgar Martinez) last year. Sweeney was remarkably
consistent last year -- he hit well in every month, against both lefties
and righties, and in all situations -- and set career highs in every category
except doubles. His defense is acceptable at first base, but he was listed
as the DH 45 times last year because Dave McCarty is a superior fielder
at that position. KC recently rewarded Sweeney with a 2-year, $13 million
contract.
Dave McCarty, 1b/lf/rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 100 26 5 0 4 15 13 1 13 1 20 1 1 .260 .348 .430 .778 15
Prorated KC 257 67 13 0 10 38 33 3 33 3 51 3 3 .260 .348 .430 .778 38
Actual KC 270 75 14 2 12 34 53 0 22 1 68 0 0 .278 .329 .478 .807 42
McCarty came up through the Twins organization and was a highly-regarded
prospect in the early 1990s, but Minnesota gave up on him after a couple
of mediocre seasons. From 1997-1999, McCarty spent most of his time in
the minors, earning only 18 big-league atbats in that span. His perseverence
was rewarded last year when he made the Royals out of spring training.
He was used mostly as a defensive sub early in the year, but a hot streak
in May earned him 48 starts at first base, with Sweeney moving to DH in
those games.
McCarty killed left-handed pitching (.365 average, .625 slugging, 16
extra-base hits in 104 atbats), but was terrible against righties. And
his performance in the second half was not good at all (.247, 4 homers),
so even though this was his best season, he doesn't appear to be an everyday
player despite his excellent defensive skills.
Carlos Febles, 2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 583 157 29 14 13 101 67 11 70 0 115 31 7 .269 .357 .434 .791 94
Prorated KC 343 92 17 8 8 59 39 6 41 0 68 18 4 .269 .357 .434 .791 55
Actual KC 339 87 12 1 2 59 29 10 36 1 48 17 6 .257 .345 .316 .660 40
Febles has yet to fulfill the promise created by his huge 1998 season
at AA Wichita, when he batted .326, drew walks at twice the league-average
rate, and slugged .530. He was off to a very good start in his rookie
season with the Royals until he tried coming back too early from a wrist
injury and saw his numbers tail off significantly late in the year. Last
year, injuries were again a big part of the story -- he missed a total
of nine weeks with shoulder and ankle problems -- but he wasn't hitting
for average or power even before his body started breaking down.
Was that AA season an anomaly? It's beginning to look that way. Then
again, he's young and has a very good batting eye, so he should evolve
into a very good all-around hitter. Even if he doesn't hit for power,
he'll be a valuable leadoff or #2 hitter for many years.
Jeff Reboulet, 2b/3b/ss, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 79 17 3 0 1 12 5 1 14 0 17 0 0 .215 .340 .291 .632 9
Prorated KC 174 38 7 0 2 27 11 2 31 0 38 0 0 .215 .340 .291 .632 20
Actual KC 182 44 7 0 0 29 14 0 23 0 32 3 1 .242 .325 .280 .605 17
Reboulet's career has lasted this long because he's been a very good
fielder at three infield positions and can get on base at close to the
league-average rate. But his bat -- .238 career average and no power --
has never been an asset, so when his range starts to diminish, his claim
to a roster spot becomes very tenuous. And our analysis shows that age
is finally catching up to him in the field. He became a free agent after
the season and was recently picked up by the Pirates.
Wilson Delgado, 2b/ss/3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 69 18 3 0 1 8 7 0 5 0 10 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 8
Prorated NYA 47 12 2 0 1 5 5 0 3 0 7 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 5
Actual NYA 45 11 1 0 1 6 4 0 5 0 9 1 0 .244 .314 .333 .647 5
Prorated KC 83 22 4 0 1 10 8 0 6 0 12 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 9
Actual KC 83 22 1 0 0 15 7 0 6 0 17 1 1 .265 .311 .277 .588 7
Prorated Tot 130 34 6 0 2 15 13 0 9 0 19 2 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 15
Actual Tot 128 33 2 0 1 21 11 0 11 0 26 2 1 .258 .312 .297 .609 12
Delgado, who came over from the Yankees in August, appears destined to
inherit the utility infielder role that was Reboulet's last year. He's
a decent fielder who's never likely to be a league-average hitter, so
he'll probably have a career as a utility man rather than a starter. But
he's better than Reboulet at the plate and should serve as an upgrade
for the Royals this season, provided he still has a job after the recent
additions of Luis Alicea and Craig Wilson.
Joe Randa, 3b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 543 160 29 7 13 75 69 5 49 2 77 5 4 .295 .355 .446 .801 85
Prorated KC 598 176 32 8 14 83 76 6 54 2 85 6 4 .295 .355 .446 .801 94
Actual KC 612 186 29 4 15 88 106 6 36 3 66 6 3 .304 .343 .438 .781 89
What you see is what you get. Randa has been a very consistent performer
in his six big-league seasons, and last year was no exception, as his
output was right in line with his career norms. This level of production
was right in the middle of the pack for third basemen last year. So was
his defense.
Rey Sanchez, ss, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 528 153 22 6 4 72 58 5 30 2 64 5 6 .290 .332 .377 .709 62
Prorated KC 511 148 21 6 4 70 56 5 29 2 62 5 6 .290 .332 .377 .709 60
Actual KC 509 139 18 2 1 68 38 4 28 0 55 7 3 .273 .314 .322 .637 50
Despite being the best defensive shortstop in the majors over the past
few seasons -- and, no, I haven't forgotten about Rey Ordonez -- Sanchez
has been a regular only twice because of his bat. Last year, he ranked
last in the majors in OPS among shortstops with at least 400 atbats. And
he didn't "accomplish" that feat by having a bad year, he did
it by matching his career averages. His career batting average (.273)
is respectable, but he doesn't walk and has absolutely no power.
Luis Ordaz, ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 69 17 3 1 0 6 8 0 4 0 7 1 1 .246 .284 .319 .603 6
Prorated KC 108 27 5 2 0 9 12 0 6 0 11 2 2 .246 .284 .319 .603 9
Actual KC 104 23 2 0 0 17 11 1 5 0 10 4 2 .221 .257 .240 .497 6
Ordaz has compiled a minor-league career that looks a lot like Sanchez's
major-league career -- as a hitter, that is. His defense isn't good enough
to earn him a job as a regular on that basis alone, and there's no reason
to believe that he'll ever hit his way into someone's starting lineup.
Mark Quinn, lf/dh, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 522 159 29 2 23 81 97 10 38 2 81 8 5 .305 .360 .500 .860 93
Prorated KC 494 150 27 2 22 77 92 9 36 2 77 8 5 .305 .360 .500 .860 88
Actual KC 500 147 33 2 20 76 78 3 35 1 91 5 2 .294 .342 .488 .830 82
Quinn won the Pacific Coast League batting title in 1999 and hit very
well in a September callup that year. Although he's a little old to be
considered a budding superstar, he did get his career off to a very solid
start, finishing in the middle of the pack among everyday left-fielders
in the OPS rankings. Muser sent him down to AAA to work on his defense
and baserunning for a couple of weeks in June, and Quinn responded by
raising his game a little in the second half.
Dee Brown, lf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 67 18 3 1 2 12 11 1 7 0 13 1 1 .269 .347 .433 .780 10
Prorated KC 25 7 1 0 1 4 4 0 3 0 5 0 0 .269 .347 .433 .780 4
Actual KC 25 4 1 0 0 4 4 0 3 0 9 0 0 .160 .250 .200 .450 1
Although Brown has flopped in two brief trials with Kansas City, his
minor league record is strong (.373 on-base percentage, .497 slugging)
and he remains a top propsect for 2002, if not right away. He struggled
a bit at AAA Omaha last year, where his 23 homers were negated to some
degree by a .269 average and a significant drop in his walk rate, which
had been very good in the lower minors. Brown has stolen 20-30 bases a
year and covers a lot of ground in the outfield, so if he continues to
develop as a hitter, he'll be a good all-around outfielder for the Royals
someday.
Carlos Beltran, cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 629 179 28 8 25 111 103 5 50 2 118 23 6 .285 .338 .474 .812 100
Prorated KC 375 107 17 5 15 66 61 3 30 1 70 14 4 .285 .338 .474 .812 60
Actual KC 372 92 15 4 7 49 44 0 35 2 69 13 0 .247 .309 .366 .675 43
I don't believe in the sophomore jinx, but if I did, Beltran would be
a prime example. After winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1999,
Beltran got off to a somewhat slow start, was benched for lack of hustle
in June, and then became enmeshed in a strange dispute over a bruised
knee. The club asked him to go to Florida for rehab. Beltran refused,
saying that he felt he could rehab the knee just as well in KC, and he
was suspended without pay. He filed a grievance and the matter was eventually
worked out, but Beltran missed most of the second half. Except for his
perfect 13-for-13 in steal attempts, every aspect of his game suffered
last year, but most notable is his woeful performance against right-handed
pitching (.233 with minimal power).
Johnny Damon, cf/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 591 167 32 8 16 99 73 3 65 3 70 26 9 .283 .355 .445 .800 96
Prorated KC 659 186 36 9 18 110 81 3 72 3 78 29 10 .283 .355 .445 .800 107
Actual KC 655 214 42 10 16 136 88 1 65 4 60 46 9 .327 .382 .495 .877 133
What a difference a couple of months can make. Ever since Damon arrived
in the big leagues as a 21-year-old CF in 1995, he had improved steadily
but had never attained the lofty heights that were projected for him.
In 1999, his fourth full season, he was an above-league-average hitter
for the first time, but he was still in the middle of the pack among regular
left fielders. And he had been moved from CF to LF to make room for Beltran.
And the first half of 2000 didn't suggest that the story would change
anytime soon; he entered the break with a .267 average and nothing else
in his batting line to get excited about.
Then everything changed. In the eight days following the break, Damon
had a 5-hit game, two 4-hit games, and three 3-hit games. And he just
kept on hitting for six more weeks. He batted .408 and slugged .600 in
July and August before tailing off just a little in September. It added
up to a .386 second-half batting average that was backed up by 43 extra-base
hits. Oh, and he led the league in runs with 136, stole 46 bases in 55
tries, and played very good defense.
All of a sudden, Damon was a star with a year left on his contract. And
the Royals, fearing that they would be unable to sign him after the 2001
season, entered into a three-team trade that sent Damon to Oakland, Ben
Grieve to Tampa Bay, and closer Roberto Hernandez to the Royals.
It's going to be very interesting to see if Damon can sustain this level
of performance. The arguments in favor are that he was regarded as having
this kind of talent all along, he's young, he has improved every year,
and lesser players simply don't hit that well for two entire months. The
doubts arise from the fact that his walk rate declined dramatically in
the second half, and if you take away those two months from his six-year
career, you have an average hitter (for a left fielder) with superior
defense and baserunning skills. Because he doesn't belt a lot of homers,
there were sixteen LF's and CF's, eight at each position, with a higher
OPS last year. I'm not ready to label him a superstar, but I do think
he'll be a very valuable player for many years, and Oakland fans are going
to like having him at the top of their lineup this year.
Todd Dunwoody, cf/lf/rf/dh, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 128 32 6 3 3 17 15 1 8 0 30 3 2 .250 .299 .414 .713 15
Prorated KC 182 46 9 4 4 24 21 1 11 0 43 4 3 .250 .299 .414 .713 22
Actual KC 178 37 9 0 1 12 23 1 8 0 42 3 0 .208 .238 .275 .514 12
Once a promising prospect in the Marlins system, Dunwoody has yet to
show he can hit big-league pitching. He lost a chunk of the 2000 season
to a severe ankle sprain and did nothing to convince KC to keep him around.
He'll be in camp with the Cubs.
Jermaine Dye, rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection KC 577 159 32 6 25 88 100 2 51 3 114 3 3 .276 .334 .482 .816 89
Prorated KC 617 170 34 6 27 94 107 2 55 3 122 3 3 .276 .334 .482 .816 95
Actual KC 601 193 41 2 33 107 118 3 69 6 99 0 1 .321 .390 .561 .951 133
Dye started the season the way Damon started the second half, with a
bang. Dye batted .388 with 11 homers and 28 RBI in April, and while he
wasn't able to maintain that pace, he never had a bad stretch either.
He just continued to produce and wound up with career highs in just about
every category. Like Damon's, Dye's contract is up after the 2001 season,
and the Royals are going to have to come up with some dough to keep him.
Key Pitchers
It's a good thing they're scoring runs these days, because the Royals
pitching staff hasn't been doing the job -- finishing 13th, 14th, and
13th in the league in runs allowed over the past three years. The last
time the Royals pitchers finished higher than second-last in the AL was
1997, which (not coincidentally) was Kevin Appier's last good year as
a starter with this club.
It's often the case that bad pitching staffs are made to look even worse
by poor defenses, especially in the outfield. Stick a couple of lead-footed
sluggers in the corner outfield spots with a so-so CF in between, and
just watch the pitching wear down when those singles get through for extra
bases and those in-between fly balls always seem to land in a tuft of
grass instead of the webbing of a glove.
But that's definitely not the story here. KC had a very good defense,
with top glove men like Sanchez, Damon, and Dye ably assisted by Beltran,
Febles and Randa. But the Royals hurlers never gave them a chance. They
walked more men (693) and allowed more homers (239) than any other team
in the league.
Their ace (Jose Rosado) and a promising young reliever (Orber Moreno)
missed most or all of the season with injuries, but the team was healthy
otherwise. In other words, the problem was a lack of talent. Or, more
accurately, a lack of mature talent. As you read through the player
comments below, you'll see a lot of guys who were 25 or younger. It's
unlikely that any of them will develop into top-of-the-rotation starters
or ace closers, but there is some talent in this group. In time, they'll
be better.
Jose Rosado, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.03 32 32 12 10 0 197 190 25 69 139 .255 .728
Prorated KC 4.03 5 5 2 1 0 29 28 4 10 20 .255 .728
Actual KC 5.86 5 5 2 2 0 28 29 4 9 15 .271 .852
Rosado came to spring training as the staff ace after finishing 5th in
the league in ERA the year before. That was the high point of his season.
A hamstring injury limited his innings during the spring, and he got off
to a slow start. By the end of April, he was experiencing discomfort in
his shoulder. A month of rest didn't help, and Rosado had surgery in June
to repair a frayed labrum and rotator cuff. He's been throwing for a few
weeks and expects to be ready for spring training.
Jeff Suppan, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.77 32 32 11 11 0 194 211 27 59 113 .279 .783
Prorated KC 4.77 36 36 13 13 0 221 240 31 67 129 .279 .783
Actual KC 4.94 35 33 10 9 0 217 240 36 84 128 .284 .840
Suppan has been durable but eminently hittable in his career to this
point, so when his control isn't sharp, he's in trouble. The good news
is that he was much better in the second half, cutting his homerun rate
in half and posting an 8-3 record with a 3.99 ERA after the break.
Jay Witasick, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.68 32 32 8 14 0 182 208 33 90 143 .288 .849
Prorated KC 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 90 103 16 44 70 .288 .849
Actual KC 5.94 22 14 3 8 0 89 109 15 38 67 .301 .865
Prorated SD 5.68 11 11 3 5 0 63 72 11 31 49 .288 .849
Actual SD 5.64 11 11 3 2 0 61 69 9 35 54 .284 .836
Prorated Tot 5.68 27 27 7 12 0 153 174 28 75 120 .288 .849
Actual Tot 5.82 33 25 6 10 0 150 178 24 73 121 .294 .854
Witasick pitched well down the stretch in 1999, so the Royals were optimistic
about him going into the season. But he got off to a brutal start, was
dropped from the rotation, got another chance to start after a few good
relief outings, and bombed again as a starter. Having seen enough, KC
traded him to San Diego for Brian Meadows, who was having similar troubles
in the NL. Even though he was no better after the trade, the Padres haven't
given up on Witasick. He recently signed a one-year deal for $800,000
to avoid arbitration.
Blake Stein, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.54 29 29 9 11 0 164 174 30 94 132 .272 .847
Prorated KC 5.54 18 18 6 7 0 101 107 18 58 81 .272 .847
Actual KC 4.68 17 17 8 5 0 108 98 19 57 78 .247 .766
Stein began the season on the disabled list with a cracked bone in his
forearm and didn't make his first start until early July. Even though
he was awful in his first eight outings -- 7.14 ERA, only one quality
start -- the Royals stuck with him. (They didn't have a lot of other options.)
Their patience was rewarded by a 6-2 record and seven quality starts in
his last nine games. He goes into 2001 as a key member of the rotation.
His walk-strikeout ratio makes me nervous, partly because it was even
worse in his last eight starts (29 BB and 32K) than it was earlier in
the year.
Makoto Suzuki, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.13 27 27 5 9 0 128 145 23 76 83 .288 .881
Prorated KC 6.13 38 38 7 13 0 180 205 32 107 117 .288 .881
Actual KC 4.34 32 29 8 10 0 189 195 26 94 135 .265 .778
I first saw Suzuki, a hard-throwing right-hander from Japan, when he
was in the Mariners camp as a teenager in 1993. The Japanese media was
following his every move, and everyone had high hopes. But Suzuki has
yet to have a really good season at any level. He improved last year,
though it wasn't quite as dramatic as his ERA suggests, and he was quite
effective against right-handed batters. But he's still walking too many
guys and giving up too many homers. In October, he underwent rotator cuff
surgery -- those shoulder woes may explain his poor second half -- and
is expected to miss at least the first couple of months.
Brian Meadows, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.73 27 27 6 13 0 159 195 27 47 75 .304 .843
Prorated SD 5.73 22 22 5 10 0 128 157 22 38 60 .304 .843
Actual SD 5.34 22 22 7 8 0 125 150 24 50 53 .301 .905
Prorated KC 5.73 12 12 3 6 0 69 84 12 20 32 .304 .843
Actual KC 4.77 11 10 6 2 0 72 84 8 14 26 .293 .775
Prorated Tot 5.73 33 33 7 16 0 196 241 33 58 93 .304 .843
Actual Tot 5.13 33 32 13 10 0 196 234 32 64 79 .298 .858
Like Jeff Suppan, Meadows doesn't have great stuff but manages to hang
in because he doesn't walk too many. His win-loss record was good because
he got a lot of run support, not because he was an especially good pitcher.
Lefties battered him for a .309 average, a .380 on-base percentage, and
.542 slugging percentage, a pattern consistent with his previous two years.
Chad Durbin, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 7.02 3 3 1 1 0 17 22 4 7 12 .324 .978
Prorated KC 7.02 13 13 4 4 0 75 98 18 31 54 .324 .978
Actual KC 8.21 16 16 2 5 0 72 91 14 43 37 .301 .902
Durbin has risen steadily through the Royals farm system, never needing
more than a year at one level before getting promoted, and never pitching
badly at any stage. This is the first time they've moved him up twice
in one year, and it's the first time he has been overmatched. His walk-strikeout
ratios have been very good throughout his career, so Durbin has a good
chance to be an effective major-league pitcher.
Dan Reichert, reliever/starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.40 17 0 1 2 0 22 25 3 14 18 .294 .867
Prorated KC 5.40 115 0 7 14 0 147 169 20 95 122 .294 .867
Actual KC 4.70 44 18 8 10 2 153 157 15 91 94 .271 .767
Reichert has averaged about six walks per nine innings in his two partial
seasons with the Royals. He's an extreme ground-ball pitcher, so he erased
a lot of those walks with 28 double plays (4th most in the AL) and he
doesn't often get hurt by the longball. He relieved for the first half
of the year before moving into the rotation in late June. A brutal September
(0-4, 7.39) ruined what had been a very impressive series of starts. He
should be a good one if he can overcome his control problems without serving
up too many fat pitches.
Miguel Batista, starter/reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mon 4.66 34 4 4 5 0 85 91 9 37 60 .277 .777
Prorated Mon 4.66 4 1 1 1 0 11 12 1 5 8 .277 .777
Actual Mon 14.04 4 0 0 1 0 8 19 2 3 7 .452 1.190
Prorated KC 4.66 24 3 3 3 0 59 64 6 26 42 .277 .777
Actual KC 7.74 14 9 2 6 0 57 66 17 34 30 .292 .941
Prorated Tot 4.66 28 3 3 4 0 70 75 7 31 50 .277 .777
Actual Tot 8.54 18 9 2 7 0 65 85 19 37 37 .317 .980
Batista came from Montreal in a late-April trade that sent Brad Rigby
north. He has no history of allowing a lot of homers, but his pitches
were launched into the bleachers at an alarming rate last year, so Batista
spent the second half of the year in AAA. He's now in the Arizona organization.
Chris Fussell, reliever/starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 6.30 4 4 1 2 0 20 25 4 12 16 .309 .931
Prorated KC 6.30 13 13 3 7 0 67 83 13 40 53 .309 .931
Actual KC 6.30 20 9 5 3 0 70 76 18 44 46 .286 .907
In three big-league seasons totalling a scant 136 innings, Fussell has
seen his ERA drop from 8.38 to 7.39 to 6.30. So I suppose he's making
progress. But 44 walks and 18 homers in 70 innings just doesn't cut it,
and Fussell appears to be the least likely of KC's young pitchers to succeed.
Orber Moreno, reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 3.95 70 0 6 4 2 98 91 13 45 87 .247 .750
Moreno has had nothing but success in his minor-league career, dominating
hitters in the low minors, pitching very well at AA Wichita in 1998 and
again with AAA Omaha in 1999, and earning a promotion to the big club
as a 22-year-old in 1999. Since then, he's had nothing but arm problems,
and he missed all of the 2000 season after having tendon transplant surgery
in his elbow. It's not clear whether he'll be back, and if he is, whether
he'll be all the way back.
Scott Mullen, lefty specialist, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual KC 4.35 11 0 0 0 0 10 10 2 3 7 .244 .734
After failing to impress as a starting pitcher, Mullen was tried in relief
for the first time last year. He responded with strong performances at
both AA and AAA, earning a promotion to the Royals for the month of September.
He was terrific against lefties, holding them to a .143 average and no
walks, but righties pounded him for a .550 slugging average. That was
probably enough to earn him a spot in the Royals bullpen for 2001, but
we'll have to see how well he comes back from off-season shoulder surgery.
Jose Santiago, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.48 40 0 3 3 0 70 77 10 23 24 .283 .791
Prorated KC 4.48 40 0 3 3 0 71 78 10 23 24 .283 .791
Actual KC 3.91 45 0 8 6 2 69 70 7 26 44 .260 .719
Santiago has now given the Royals two solid seasons of long relief. His
success in that role led Muser to try him as a closer, but Santiago (like
the others they've tried) was a bust, blowing 7 of 11 opportunities over
the past two years. Overall, he allowed a horrible 21 of 33 inherited
runners to score. I'm not sure why, but this right-hander has been much
more effective against lefty hitters to this point in his career.
Jerry Spradlin, long reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776
Prorated KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776
Actual KC 5.52 50 0 4 4 7 75 81 9 27 54 .283 .805
Prorated ChN 4.25 12 0 1 1 0 16 17 2 6 13 .273 .776
Actual ChN 8.40 8 1 0 1 0 15 20 2 5 13 .328 .869
Prorated Tot 4.25 65 0 5 5 0 88 93 11 36 70 .273 .776
Actual Tot 6.00 58 1 4 5 7 90 101 11 32 67 .291 .816
Spradlin was a better pitcher than his ERA suggests and he gave the Royals
what they had a right to expect based on his recent past, which consisted
of one good season (1998 with the Phillies) sandwiched between two mediocre
ones. In fact, you could even argue that he was one of the bright spots
in the KC pen -- he converted a respectable 7 of 11 save opportunities
and allowed only 7 of 28 inherited runners to score. Nevertheless, he
was released in August and finished out the year in poor fashion with
the Cubs. He recently signed with Cleveland for 2001.
Kris Wilson, reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual KC 4.19 20 0 0 1 0 34 38 3 11 17 .288 .765
We didn't project any playing time for Wilson because he entered 2000
having thrown only 80 innings above A ball and having been banged around
pretty good -- 5.45 ERA, 91 hits and 11 homers in 74 innings at AA Wichita
-- mostly as a starter. But his second crack at AA proved to be much more
successful last year, and that earned him a shot in the beleaguered KC
bullpen. He did a good job, displaying good control and (rare among KC
relievers) the ability to keep the ball in the park.
Ricky Bottalico, closer, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.51 70 0 2 8 21 67 78 9 42 55 .293 .863
Prorated KC 5.51 71 0 2 8 21 68 79 9 43 56 .293 .863
Actual KC 4.83 62 0 9 6 16 73 65 12 41 56 .239 .783
In the years since he saved 34 games in both 1996 and 1997 for the Phillies,
Bottalico has struggled with injuries and with his control. He blew 7
of 23 save opportunities, so KC decided not to bring him back for 2001.
Instead, he'll return to Philly in an attempt to reconnect with his glory
days.
Outlook
Young teams with some talent tend to improve, so I think the Royals will
be a little better this year. But it's hard to see how they could be a
lot better.
Their off-season moves subtracted more talent than they added. The only
major deal was the three-way trade that sent Johnny Damon to Oakland and
brought Roberto Hernandez from Tampa Bay. The 36-year-old Hernandez will
help a bullpen has blown a lot of leads in recent years, but the loss
of Damon's 214 hits, 68 extra-base hits, 46 stolen bases, and defensive
skills will reduce the number of leads that are handed to the closer in
the first place.
The other newcomers are journeyman players brought in to create some
competition for reserve positions (AJ Hinch, Luis Alicea, Craig Wilson,
Raul Ibanez, and Jon Nunnally) or add a veteran presence in the bullpen
(Jason Grimsley and Doug Henry).
And while Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles should rebound this year,
there's not much room for improvement for their other starters, all of
whom had big years (Dye, Sweeney) or were near their established level
(Randa, Sanchez). A lot of things would have to go right for the team
to increase their scoring power; they'd do well to overcome the loss of
Damon and maintain their current level.
So any improvement is most likely to come from the new relievers and
their young starting pitchers. The pitching should be better, but this
group would have to shave about 150 runs off what they allowed last year
to make this team a legitimate contender, and I don't think there's enough
talent in this group to pull that off.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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