2000 Post-Season Review -- Los Angeles Dodgers
By Zack Scott
February 12, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Los Angeles Dodgers performed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 765 798
Runs allowed 769 729
Run Margin -4 69
Wins 82 86
Pythagorean wins 81 88
Placement 2nd 2nd
With the recent mega-deals signed by Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez,
it seems there are daily discussions regarding the "state of the
game" on every sports radio and television show. Typically, these
conversations focus on superstar egos and greedy agents, but fingers are
not pointed at the owners and general managers often enough. I give you
Exhibit A: Dodger GM Kevin Malone.
Other owners tore their hair out when Malone drastically raised market
prices by signing then-34-year-old Kevin Brown to seven years at
$105 million in 1999 and Shawn Green to six years at $84 million in 2000.
If they stay healthy, those two guys may prove to be worth their high
salaries, but Malone really threw things out of whack by giving average-at-best
players ridiculous money, signing the Mark Grudzielaneks, Devon Whites,
and Carlos Perez's of the world to three- or four-year deals worth upwards
of $15-20 million each.
Of course, Malone isn't the first GM to overpay for mediocrity, but with
all that Fox money at his disposal, his market influence is huge.
Perhaps he sees raising the market as an opportunity to weed out the competition,
but if Malone doesn't make better decisions regarding mid-level talent,
he will only weed the Dodgers out of playoff contention for several years.
This year, MLB's third-highest payroll produced a team with only its
tenth-best record. Upper management blamed manager Davey Johnson for getting
two years of mediocre results out of their high-priced talent. In 1999,
Johnson took over a team that many predicted to win a weak NL West, but
the team finished below .500 and in third place behind Arizona and San
Francisco. A year later, the team improved by nine games, playing consistently
(only one losing month), but never finishing more than four games above
.500 in any month. LA never posed a serious threat to the Giants, and
Johnson was fired at season's end.
Key Position Players
Following the 1999 season, Malone didn't make too many changes to upgrade
an offense that was average across the board and a defense that had very
good range but made too many errors. He replaced Raul Mondesi with Shawn
Green, filled the second base vacancy left by Kevin Young's departure
by moving Grudzielanek over from short, and used a combination of Alex
Cora and Kevin Elster at shortstop. Green essentially duplicated Mondesi's
1999 production and the infield changes were a wash as well. The end result
was an increase of only 5 runs from the previous year and a defense that
was virtually identical to its predecessor.
Even though it didn't show on the scoreboard -- LA finished 8th in runs,
though they would have ranked a few spots higher if they weren't playing
in one of the league's best parks for pitchers -- the offense did make
some improvements. The Dodgers were fourth in homeruns thanks to Gary
Sheffield's monster season, Eric Karros' consistency, and Adrian Beltre's
continued development. They hit 41 more extra-base hits than a year ago;
24 of them were homeruns. Also, LA's lineup was more patient this season,
drawing 74 more walks -- improving to 5th in the league -- due to the
addition of Green and the 100+ walks they got out of their catchers. Allowing
for the effect of the home park, this was a pretty good offense; in fact,
only two NL teams (SF and Houston) scored more runs in road games than
the Dodgers last year.
Todd Hundley, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 453 97 17 0 24 60 67 4 67 6 138 3 1 .214 .319 .411 .729 63
Prorated LA 303 65 11 0 16 40 45 3 45 4 92 2 1 .214 .319 .411 .729 42
Actual LA 299 85 16 0 24 49 70 2 45 6 69 0 1 .284 .375 .579 .954 67
In spring training, Hundley's elbow felt the best it had in nine years,
and the Dodgers convinced him to try switch-hitting again. Poised for
a rebound from two awful years in a row, Hundley made the most of his
90 games, hitting for a career-high batting average and slugging percentage.
Only Mike Piazza had a higher OPS among NL catchers. Hundley's return
to switch-hitting was met with moderate success -- his OPS versus LHP
was 102 points higher than it has been over the last five years.
At the end of the season, Hundley's mother lost her battle with cancer
at age 58. Surely, her death influenced his decision to sign with the
Cubs, where his father is a coach. At $23.5 million over the next four
years, Chicago may have found a bargain power hitter, or they may have
blown their money on an injury-prone DH stuck in the wrong league. Hundley's
health is the X factor.
Chad Kreuter, c, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 65 15 3 0 1 6 7 1 8 0 14 0 0 .231 .324 .323 .647 7
Prorated LA 235 54 11 0 4 22 25 4 29 0 51 0 0 .231 .324 .323 .647 25
Actual LA 212 56 13 0 6 32 28 2 54 0 48 1 0 .264 .416 .410 .827 41
Kreuter may best be remembered for jumping into the stands to fight drunken
Cubs fans for stealing his hat, but when he was actually on the field,
he put together one of his finest seasons. Playing for his 7th team, Kreuter
reached base a career-high 42% of the time and had his best batting average
and slugging percentage in seven years. He is a solid backup catcher who
threw out 40% of runners attempting to steal, and Dodger pitchers had
their lowest ERA with Kreuter behind the plate. With Hundley's departure,
Kreuter will be fighting for time with Paul LoDuca and Brian Johnson.
Paul LoDuca, c/of/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 88 22 4 0 1 11 9 1 10 1 7 2 1 .250 .330 .330 .660 10
Prorated LA 65 16 3 0 1 8 7 1 7 1 5 1 1 .250 .330 .330 .660 7
Actual LA 65 16 2 0 2 6 8 0 6 0 8 0 2 .246 .301 .369 .671 7
In 2001, LoDuca will join Kreuter and Johnson as one of three backup-quality
catchers vying for a starting job. He has the best arm of the three (47%
caught stealing) but the least experience and a weak bat. LoDuca has a
.315 career average in the minors but only hit a homerun once every 80
atbats (1 HR per 30 AB is average in the NL).
Eric Karros, 1b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 573 160 29 0 28 71 98 2 58 1 112 7 3 .279 .344 .476 .821 94
Prorated LA 595 166 30 0 29 74 102 2 60 1 116 7 3 .279 .344 .476 .821 98
Actual LA 584 146 29 0 31 84 106 4 63 2 122 4 3 .250 .321 .459 .780 85
After years of trade rumors, the Dodgers finally showed Karros their
appreciation by giving him a three-year contract extension prior to the
start of the season. He has been LA's most consistent run producer, launching
30+ homers and knocking in 100+ runs in five of the last six seasons.
After his career year in 1999, Karros continued his torrid pace through
July before slumping to end the season (.221 AVG, .328 SPC), bringing
his overall numbers back to earth. Despite the late-season slide, he still
collected more RBI than new teammate Shawn Green, who made almost twice
as much money.
Jim Leyritz, 1b/c/lf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 305 79 15 1 11 41 44 7 45 2 71 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 49
Prorated NYA 53 14 3 0 2 7 8 1 8 0 12 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 8
Actual NYA 55 12 0 0 1 2 4 1 7 0 14 0 0 .218 .317 .273 .590 5
Prorated LA 57 15 3 0 2 8 8 1 8 0 13 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 9
Actual LA 60 12 1 0 1 3 8 1 7 0 12 0 0 .200 .294 .267 .561 5
Prorated Tot 110 29 5 0 4 15 16 3 16 1 26 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 18
Actual Tot 115 24 1 0 2 5 12 2 14 0 26 0 0 .209 .305 .270 .575 10
You would think a player that has hit post-season homeruns at a better
rate than Babe Ruth would be a hot commodity, but Leyritz has played for
six different teams over the last four years. It's been said that managers
don't like his attitude because he refuses to warm up pitchers or acts
as though he's entitled to playing time because of his post-season heroics.
But it's more likely that Leyritz can't find a home because he's past
his prime, can't play defense, and hasn't produced above an average level
in the regular season over the last five years (.760 OPS). He will be
in camp with the Mets, trying to make his seventh team in five seasons.
Mark Grudzielanek, 2b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 614 175 29 3 11 77 60 11 38 1 79 12 7 .285 .336 .396 .732 79
Prorated LA 619 176 29 3 11 78 60 11 38 1 80 12 7 .285 .336 .396 .732 80
Actual LA 617 172 35 6 7 101 49 9 45 0 81 12 3 .279 .335 .389 .724 81
Before the season, the Dodgers avoided an arbitration hearing but overpaid
for Grudzielanek, inking him to a four-year, $18 million deal. After trading
Eric Young to the Cubs in the off-season, LA decided to moved Grudzielanek
from shortstop to second base, where he last played in 1995 and had only
played 13 games in the majors. He displayed better range at second than
he ever did at short but made more errors than a league-average second
baseman. Offensively, Grudzielanek produced typically below-average numbers
that were only better than Pokey Reese, Warren Morris, and Kevin Jordan
among regular NL second basemen.
Adrian Beltre, 3b, age 21
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 506 134 25 4 18 75 67 6 57 7 96 16 6 .265 .344 .437 .781 79
Prorated LA 505 134 25 4 18 75 67 6 57 7 96 16 6 .265 .344 .437 .781 79
Actual LA 510 148 30 2 20 71 85 2 56 2 80 12 5 .290 .360 .475 .835 87
Commissioner Selig banned the Dodgers from scouting in or signing players
from the Dominican Republic for one year because they illegally signed
Beltre at age 15. Fortunately for LA, Beltre's request for free agency
was denied and he agreed to a three-year $5.05 million contract. Although
he's still very young, Beltre is on the brink of stardom and is a steal
at that money. In his three seasons, he has improved on both sides of
the ball -- posting OPS figures of .647, .780, and .835 while his fielding
percentages have been .924, .931, and .944 during the same period. He
has excellent range at third and is already one of the top 5 offensive
third basemen in the league.
Dave Hansen, 3b/1b/lf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 62 16 4 0 1 8 8 1 12 0 12 0 0 .258 .387 .371 .758 10
Prorated LA 122 31 8 0 2 16 16 2 24 0 24 0 0 .258 .387 .371 .758 19
Actual LA 121 35 6 2 8 18 26 0 26 0 32 0 1 .289 .415 .570 .985 29
Hansen has played the role of occasional corner infielder and pinch-hitter
extraordinaire for the Dodgers in nine of his ten seasons. This year,
he broke a 68-year-old Major League record for pinch-hit homeruns in one
season by hitting seven, giving him a total of thirteen for his career
(8th all-time). Hansen was incredibly clutch for LA, slugging .805 (6
homers in 41 atbats) in the late innings of close games. He has reached
base 39% of the time over the last five years but hasn't proven he can
handle lefties (.194 AVG) or play good enough defense to justify more
than a bench role. Hansen will remain in that role for at least one more
year with the Dodgers.
Kevin Elster, ss/3b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 472 103 14 2 15 50 60 3 61 0 110 0 1 .218 .309 .352 .661 54
Prorated LA 225 49 7 1 7 24 29 1 29 0 52 0 0 .218 .309 .352 .661 26
Actual LA 220 50 8 0 14 29 32 0 38 5 52 0 0 .227 .341 .455 .796 37
Elster came out of retirement to sign a one-year deal with the Dodgers
and displayed renewed energy by blasting homeruns at his best rate. But
a couple of nagging injuries landed him on the DL and the Dodgers grew
tired of his subpar defense, choosing the defense and youth of Alex Cora
over Elster's power and experience. Surprisingly, his offensive numbers
ranked him among the better NL shortstops, which probably just goes to
show that all of the shortstop talent is in the AL. Despite the low batting
average, only Barry Larkin had a higher OPS among NL shortstops with at
least 250 plate appearances. Elster is currently a free agent and may
retire again if teams don't show interest.
Alex Cora, ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 70 15 2 1 0 8 7 1 3 0 9 1 1 .214 .257 .271 .528 5
Prorated LA 368 79 11 5 0 42 37 5 16 0 47 5 5 .214 .257 .271 .528 25
Actual LA 353 84 18 6 4 39 32 7 26 4 53 4 1 .238 .302 .357 .658 39
Elster's early-May disabling due to a groin pull opened the door for
Cora, a slick-fielding shortstop with a career .300 average at AAA. While
the Dodgers felt he deserved a shot at the everyday job, Cora's results
suggest he's not ready for that role -- his offensive production ranked
towards the bottom of the weak list of NL shortstops. Cora opened some
eyes in the Puerto Rico Winter League, exploding for a league-leading
10 homeruns and leading his championship team in RBI and stolen bases.
But he never hit for power or walked often in the minors, so it remains
to be seen whether that Winter League performance presages an offensive
breakout in the future.
At worst, his very good range and above-average hands make him a valuable
defensive replacement. The Dodgers signed Tim Bogar to possibly share
time at short even though he's worse than Cora defensively and
offensively.
Jose Vizcaino, ss/3b/2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 108 28 4 0 1 13 11 0 10 0 14 1 1 .259 .319 .324 .643 11
Prorated LA 94 24 3 0 1 11 10 0 9 0 12 1 1 .259 .319 .324 .643 10
Actual LA 93 19 2 1 0 9 4 1 10 3 15 1 0 .204 .288 .247 .536 7
Prorated NYA 169 44 6 0 2 20 17 0 16 0 22 2 2 .259 .319 .324 .643 18
Actual NYA 174 48 8 1 0 23 10 0 12 0 28 5 7 .276 .319 .333 .652 17
Prorated Tot 263 68 10 0 2 32 27 0 24 0 34 2 2 .259 .319 .324 .643 27
Actual Tot 267 67 10 2 0 32 14 1 22 3 43 6 7 .251 .308 .303 .612 24
The Dodgers wasted another $10 million for 2 1/2 years of service from
Vizcaino, a utility infielder who produced awful offensive results (about
.600 OPS). Defensively, he is valuable for his versatility and sure hands,
which is why the Yankees acquired him for Jim Leyritz. In New York, Vizcaino
hit a little better than he had in LA, but his real job was to provide
steady defense in place of Chuck Knoblauch. As a bonus, he went on to
be a World Series hero. This off-season, he signed with Houston for much
less money ($1.5 million for one year) to provide defensive insurance
for their unstable situations at short and third.
Gary Sheffield, lf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 541 151 24 1 28 93 92 8 108 8 68 12 5 .279 .402 .482 .884 113
Prorated LA 498 139 22 1 26 86 85 7 99 7 63 11 5 .279 .402 .482 .884 105
Actual LA 501 163 24 3 43 105 109 4 101 7 71 4 6 .325 .438 .643 1.081 143
Sheffield put together his best season in four years and possibly ever,
setting a career high in homeruns while finishing with the NL's 3rd best
on-base percentage and 4th best slugging percentage. Those numbers are
especially impressive considering he plays in a pitcher's park. Sheffield
compiled an OPS over 1.000 for the third time in his career and first
time as a Dodger while totaling 100+ runs, RBI, and walks for the second
straight year.
Bruce Aven, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 79 22 4 0 3 12 14 2 8 0 17 1 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 13
Prorated Pit 134 37 7 0 5 20 24 3 14 0 29 2 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 23
Actual Pit 148 37 11 0 5 18 25 0 5 0 31 2 3 .250 .275 .426 .700 15
Prorated LA 20 6 1 0 1 3 4 1 2 0 4 0 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 3
Actual LA 20 5 0 0 2 2 4 0 3 0 8 0 0 .250 .348 .550 .898 4
Prorated Tot 154 43 8 0 6 23 27 4 16 0 33 2 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 26
Actual Tot 168 42 11 0 7 20 29 0 8 0 39 2 3 .250 .284 .440 .725 19
In 1999, Aven played 137 games with the Marlins, getting on base frequently,
driving in 70 runs, and playing good outfield defense. This season, he
showed similar pop as a Pirate but lost his patience, walking only a third
as often. LA acquired Aven in August, but he was seldom used. The Dodgers
signed him to a one-year contract for 2001, intending to use him as a
reserve outfielder. If Aven shows the patience he demonstrated in 1999,
his offense will complement his solid outfield range and very good arm,
making him a valuable bench player.
Devon White, cf, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 498 128 23 1 15 64 67 9 47 3 97 17 6 .257 .330 .398 .727 68
Prorated LA 149 38 7 0 5 19 20 3 14 1 29 5 2 .257 .330 .398 .727 20
Actual LA 158 42 5 1 4 26 13 1 9 0 30 3 6 .266 .310 .386 .696 17
White is yet another player that Malone overpaid, signing him to a three-year,
$12.4 million deal in 1999. To commit that kind of money to a then-36-year-old
leadoff hitter with a career .317 on-base percentage was ludicrous. In
2000, LA got even less than expected out of White due to a torn rotator
cuff sustained while attempting a diving catch. He played in his fewest
games since 1986, resulting in his worst offensive output in fourteen
years. Thanks to the wear and tear that comes with sixteen years of major-league
experience, White, who was for many years one of the best center fielders
in the game, is now only average. The Dodgers are stuck with White's contract
for one more year.
Todd Hollandsworth, cf/lf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 243 66 12 2 6 35 30 1 22 1 54 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 34
Prorated LA 266 72 13 2 7 38 33 1 24 1 59 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 37
Actual LA 261 61 12 0 8 42 24 1 30 2 61 11 4 .234 .314 .372 .686 32
Prorated Col 161 44 8 1 4 23 20 1 15 1 36 3 2 .272 .333 .412 .745 22
Actual Col 167 54 8 0 11 39 23 0 11 1 38 7 3 .323 .365 .569 .934 33
Prorated Tot 427 116 21 4 11 62 53 2 39 2 95 9 5 .272 .333 .412 .745 60
Actual Tot 428 115 20 0 19 81 47 1 41 3 99 18 7 .269 .333 .449 .782 64
In his 5 1/2 years as a Dodger, Hollandsworth's offensive production
was average at best, and he rarely got the opportunity to face left-handed
pitching, despite having basically the same OPS versus lefties and righties.
Malone felt he was nothing more than a reserve outfielder, so he traded
him at the deadline to Colorado for Tom Goodwin. Hollandsworth excelled
in the high altitude of Denver, finishing the season with a monster September
(.379 AVG, 10 HR). He re-signed with Colorado where he will battle Juan
Pierre for the starting center field job.
Tom Goodwin, cf/lf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 585 173 22 8 7 105 49 2 69 0 97 47 17 .296 .370 .397 .767 93
Prorated Col 330 97 12 5 4 59 28 1 39 0 55 26 10 .296 .370 .397 .767 52
Actual Col 317 86 8 8 5 65 47 1 50 2 76 39 7 .271 .368 .394 .763 55
Prorated LA 200 59 8 3 2 36 17 1 24 0 33 16 6 .296 .370 .397 .767 32
Actual LA 211 53 3 1 1 29 11 0 18 0 41 16 3 .251 .310 .289 .599 21
Prorated Tot 530 157 20 7 6 95 44 2 63 0 88 43 15 .296 .370 .397 .767 84
Actual Tot 528 139 11 9 6 94 58 1 68 2 117 55 10 .263 .346 .352 .698 75
In the case of Devon White, at least there is only one more year remaining
on his contract, but when LA traded for Goodwin, they acquired essentially
the same player for an additional $6+ million over the next two years.
To his credit, Goodwin is six years younger than White, his .339 career
on-base percentage is better (albeit below average), and he is one of
the fastest guys in the game (2nd in NL steals). But his extra-base power
is pathetic (career .340 slugging), and despite his great speed, he is
only average in center. LA will reportedly try to move Goodwin and/or
White during the season but may have problems finding any takers, so expect
them to share time in center.
F.P. Santangelo, cf/lf/2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 101 23 5 0 1 16 9 5 16 0 19 2 1 .228 .358 .307 .665 13
Prorated LA 143 33 7 0 1 23 13 7 23 0 27 3 1 .228 .358 .307 .665 19
Actual LA 142 28 4 0 1 19 9 6 21 0 33 3 2 .197 .322 .246 .568 13
Although he is not particularly good at one position, Santangelo plays
both the outfield and infield, making him valuable as a bench player.
But his biggest asset has been his ability to get on base via the walk,
which he did at almost twice the rate of an average player. Unfortunately,
he posted his worst batting average, resulting in an on-base percentage
43 points lower than his career figure. As he enters the final year of
his contract with LA, Santangelo looks to avoid the injury bug that has
bitten him several times over the last few years.
Shawn Green, rf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 575 161 30 1 31 101 94 6 60 3 119 22 7 .280 .352 .497 .850 103
Prorated LA 638 179 33 1 34 112 104 7 67 3 132 24 8 .280 .352 .497 .850 115
Actual LA 610 164 44 4 24 98 99 8 90 9 121 24 5 .269 .367 .472 .839 110
Green put together awesome offensive numbers in 1999 and won his first
Gold Glove, so Toronto rewarded him with a trade to LA where he signed
a six-year, $84 million deal. A high price tag comes with high expectations,
and Green failed to come close, hitting 18 fewer homeruns than the previous
year.
But a closer look reveals that Green almost matched what the Dodgers
had a right to expect. After accounting for the move from SkyDome to Dodger
Stadium, Green hit 10 fewer homeruns than projected but compensated for
that shortfall with 11 more doubles, 3 more triples, and 23 more walks.
The end result was an OPS only 11 points below our projections.
Some thought Green reached superstar status in 1999 because he learned
how to hit lefties, but he reverted back to his old ways, losing 43 and
117 points of OBP and SPC versus LHP, respectively, in one year.
Key Pitchers
The Dodgers pitching staff was projected to pitch better than the previous
year in which they were 8th in the league in runs allowed, which is not
good considering they play in a pitcher's park. It was reasonable to believe
Chan Ho Park would bounce back from a bad year and the bullpen might improve
with the additions of Terry Adams and Gregg Olson. But Kevin Brown and
Park performed beyond expectations, providing LA with the best one-two
punch in the NL, and rookie Matt Herges was outstanding in long relief.
Although Olson contributed very little due to injury, Adams and Mike Fetters
impressed in setup roles. The Dodgers said farewell to Orel Hershiser,
began counting down the days until Carlos Perez' contract expires, and
witnessed a slide in closer Jeff Shaw's performance.
Overall, Dodger pitchers gave up 58 fewer runs than the previous year
and finished with a staff ERA second only to Atlanta. Surprisingly, they
had the league's lowest bullpen ERA with guys named Herges, Adams, and
Fetters leading the way. But the pen was not among the most efficient
in the NL -- they were 12th in save percentage, 15th in holds, and average
at preventing inherited runners from scoring.
Kevin Brown, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 3.00 32 32 16 7 0 222 196 15 58 191 .239 .635
Prorated LA 3.00 33 33 16 7 0 228 201 15 60 196 .239 .635
Actual LA 2.58 33 33 13 6 0 230 181 21 47 216 .213 .598
If the voters weren't so obsessed with wins, Brown may have beaten Randy
Johnson for the Cy Young award. Incredibly, Johnson struck out 131 more
batters than Brown (who finished third, one K behind Chan Ho Park), but
Brown led the league in ERA, batting average and on-base percentage allowed,
fewest runners per 9 innings, and quality start percentage. Compared to
Johnson, Brown also walked fewer batters and held them to a lower slugging
percentage. But Brown only had 13 wins mostly because of poor run support
and bad luck -- he had a 2.40 ERA in his fourteen no-decisions.
In the two years since signing a then-record seven-year, $105 million
contract with LA, Brown has earned his money. With skyrocketing salaries,
he may turn out to be a bargain, but the excessive length of the contract
may come back to bite the Dodgers. Brown will be 40 in the last year of
the deal and has carried a heavy workload for most of his career, averaging
240 innings per season over the last eight non-strike seasons.
Chan Ho Park, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.19 32 32 11 11 0 191 180 22 91 166 .251 .746
Prorated LA 4.19 37 37 13 13 0 221 208 25 105 192 .251 .746
Actual LA 3.27 34 34 18 10 0 226 173 21 124 217 .214 .669
Park bounced back from a disappointing 1999 to put together his best
season to date, setting career bests in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Among
his accomplishments, Park finished 2nd in the league in strikeouts and
opponents batting average, while allowing the fewest hits per 9 innings.
He still struggles with his control at times (NL's 4th highest walk rate)
and continued to pitch much better in the second half, compiling a 9-3
record and 2.07 ERA in his final fourteen starts.
Once again, Malone angered owners by giving Park a $6 million raise for
next season in order to avoid arbitration. The signing gives LA a $25
million one-two punch of Brown and Park that rivals Arizona's Johnson-Schilling
and Atlanta's Maddux-Glavine as the best duo in the NL.
Darren Dreifort, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 3.86 32 32 12 10 0 196 184 18 81 166 .251 .715
Prorated LA 3.86 32 32 12 10 0 198 186 18 82 168 .251 .715
Actual LA 4.16 32 32 12 9 0 193 175 31 87 164 .238 .753
If owners thought Park's raise was ridiculous, Malone gave Dreifort,
a guy who has never pitched 200 innings, a $7+ million raise, committing
to five years and a total of $55 million. In his three seasons as a starter,
Dreifort is 33-34 with a 4.44 ERA while pitching half of his games in
one of the league's best pitcher's parks.
This season was his first without a relief appearance and the first time,
as a starter, that his arm didn't break down thanks to Davey Johnson's
monitoring of pitch counts (averaged 97 pitches per start and maxed out
at 112). Since he was a reliever in college and his first three years
in the majors, new manager Jim Tracy will need to keep an eye on Dreifort's
workload so he can eventually throw 220 solid innings. Dreifort also needs
to cut down on homeruns allowed -- his gopher-ball rate was the 8th worst
in the NL. The Dodgers are encouraged by his second-half performance in
which he was 8-2 with a 3.14 ERA.
Orel Hershiser, starter, age 41
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.28 32 32 10 10 0 179 176 19 75 96 .262 .751
Prorated LA 4.28 6 6 2 2 0 32 31 3 13 17 .262 .751
Actual LA 13.14 10 6 1 5 0 25 42 5 14 13 .389 1.094
The Dodgers hoped to gain publicity and a league-average starter by bringing
the local hero back to LA, but Hershiser quickly realized that his career
was finished, leaving the Dodgers to scramble for alternatives. He made
one good start, but hitters mostly teed off or got beaned -- they slugged
.602 and were plunked 11 times in only 24.2 innings. Hershiser officially
retired in early July.
Carlos Perez, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.72 19 19 7 7 0 114 122 16 39 57 .274 .779
Prorated LA 4.72 25 25 9 9 0 148 158 21 51 74 .274 .779
Actual LA 5.56 30 22 5 8 0 144 192 25 33 64 .324 .882
The Dodgers are stuck with Perez for one more year at $5 million, and
he'll miss part of the season recovering from the shoulder surgery that
cut short his 2000 campaign. For the second consecutive year, Perez was
a horrible starting pitcher (5-8, 6.37 ERA), bringing his total record
as a Dodger starter to 11-22 with a 5.91 ERA. During the same time period,
he has compiled a 1.82 ERA as a reliever, allowing fewer hits than innings
pitched and surrendering homeruns at 1/3 of his rate as a starter. When
he returns from injury, Perez may be most valuable as a long reliever
and spot starter.
Eric Gagne, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.31 8 8 3 3 0 48 43 8 25 49 .240 .764
Prorated LA 4.31 18 18 7 7 0 107 96 18 56 109 .240 .764
Actual LA 5.15 20 19 4 6 0 101 106 20 60 79 .270 .854
After a strong performance in his 1999 late-season callup, Gagne began
2000 in the minors, was summoned in April when Brown injured a finger,
and then spent some time in the rotation due to Hershiser's ineffectiveness.
Amid several demotions and recalls, Gagne struggled to a 1-6 record and
5.85 ERA before finishing strong in his final four starts (3-0, 2.53 ERA).
He only allowed one homerun in those four starts, but over the entire
season, Gagne's homerun rate was almost as poor as that of league-leader
Jose Lima. Gagne's name was brought up in several off-season trade rumors,
but he has a good chance to beat out Ramon Martinez and Perez for the
fifth rotation spot.
Ismael Valdes, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.44 32 32 10 13 0 209 217 28 70 151 .268 .760
Prorated ChN 4.44 10 10 3 4 0 68 70 9 23 49 .268 .760
Actual ChN 5.37 12 12 2 4 0 67 71 17 27 45 .273 .855
Prorated LA 4.44 6 6 2 3 0 42 43 6 14 30 .268 .760
Actual LA 6.08 9 8 0 3 0 40 53 5 13 29 .327 .895
Prorated Tot 4.44 17 17 5 7 0 109 114 15 37 79 .268 .760
Actual Tot 5.64 21 20 2 7 0 107 124 22 40 74 .294 .870
Before the season, LA sent Valdes to the Cubs as a gift for taking Eric
Young's salary off their hands. That gift turned out to be a Trojan horse.
Valdes was awful, allowing a homerun every four innings -- his homerun
total with Chicago extrapolates to 51 HR in 200 innings. But the Dodgers
were desperate for starting pitching, so they re-acquired Valdes for Jamie
Arnold. Wearing Dodger blue, his gopher-ball problem settled down but
batters hit 54 points higher, and Valdes didn't win any of his eight starts.
Valdes' worst season to date may have been due to a shoulder problem
that caused him to miss April or the blisters and numbness in his throwing
hand that bothered him later in the year. Whatever the reason for his
debacle, the Angels invested $2.5 million for 2001 with hope that Valdes
will return to form.
Matt Herges, long reliever/spot starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 5.72 17 0 1 2 0 28 33 5 13 19 .295 .870
Prorated LA 5.72 61 0 4 7 0 102 119 18 47 68 .295 .870
Actual LA 3.17 59 4 11 3 1 111 100 7 40 75 .249 .669
Herges deserved serious consideration for NL rookie of the year for being
outstanding in long relief (11-0, 2.57 ERA) and very dependable on a team
with problems at the bottom of their rotation. His eleven wins tied Rick
Ankiel for the most victories by a rookie, but middle relievers tend to
go unnoticed and Herges was not successful as a starter (0-3, 5.48 ERA).
He excelled because he only allowed 23 extra-base hits -- an average NL
pitcher would have allowed 35 in the same number of innings. The Dodgers
hope his rookie year wasn't a fluke and he continues to be a dependable
member of the bullpen.
Antonio Osuna, long reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 2.95 13 0 1 1 0 18 14 2 9 20 .212 .660
Prorated LA 2.95 49 0 4 4 0 69 53 8 34 75 .212 .660
Actual LA 3.74 46 0 3 6 0 67 57 7 35 70 .229 .711
Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Osuna was expected to miss most of
the season, but he returned in early May to record his highest innings
total in four years. Although he performed slightly worse than expected,
Osuna was impressive considering the seriousness of his injury. Another
off-season should allow him to strengthen his arm and pitch closer to
expectations.
Onan Masaoka, middle reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.45 70 0 5 5 1 93 86 12 61 80 .246 .767
Prorated LA 4.45 19 0 1 1 0 26 24 3 17 22 .246 .767
Actual LA 4.00 29 0 1 1 0 27 23 2 15 27 .230 .696
Despite LA's shortage of lefties in the bullpen, Masaoka shuttled back
and forth between LA and Albuquerque, unable to maintain a big-league
job. In his two major-league seasons, left-handed batters have hit .212
and slugged only .314, so I'm not sure why the Dodgers don't use him more.
Perhaps they feel he walks too many batters, but Masaoka's control improved
from a year ago. He's young and should continue to develop into a solid
reliever.
Alan Mills, middle reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 4.02 40 0 3 2 0 54 48 6 34 41 .240 .748
Prorated LA 4.02 20 0 1 1 0 27 24 3 17 20 .240 .748
Actual LA 4.21 18 0 2 1 1 26 31 3 16 18 .304 .874
Prorated Bal 4.02 19 0 1 1 0 26 23 3 16 20 .240 .748
Actual Bal 6.46 23 0 2 0 1 24 25 6 19 18 .263 .865
Prorated Tot 4.02 39 0 3 2 0 52 47 6 33 40 .240 .748
Actual Tot 5.29 41 0 4 1 2 49 56 9 35 36 .284 .870
Mills had his worst season in five years, perhaps due to shoulder inflammation
that eventually required surgery and ended his season in August. In 1999,
his first season as a Dodger, he began experiencing pain and attributed
it to the design of NL balls -- he felt the seams were lower, thus affecting
his slider and hurting his shoulder when he tried to compensate. By mid-June,
LA sent Mills and his $2.25 million to Baltimore for Al Reyes, who came
at a quarter of the cost. As an Oriole, Mills developed gopheritis before
shutting down early. He looks to bounce back from surgery in 2001.
Al Reyes, middle reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 4.85 53 0 4 4 0 69 68 13 42 70 .259 .846
Prorated Bal 4.85 10 0 1 1 0 13 13 3 8 14 .259 .846
Actual Bal 6.92 13 0 1 0 0 13 13 2 11 10 .271 .893
Prorated LA 4.85 4 0 0 0 0 5 5 1 3 5 .259 .846
Actual LA 0.00 6 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 1 8 .087 .212
Prorated Tot 4.85 14 0 1 1 0 19 18 4 11 19 .259 .846
Actual Tot 4.58 19 0 1 0 0 20 15 2 12 18 .211 .684
Reyes spent a lot of time in the minors with Baltimore before coming
to LA in the Mills trade. The Dodgers got the better of the deal because
they dumped salary to acquire a reliever who isn't much worse than Mills.
Reyes had control problems as an Oriole but pitched seven excellent innings
in Dodger blue to end the season. In 2001, he will compete for a spot
in the bullpen.
Gregg Olson, middle reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 3.34 53 0 4 2 0 57 50 6 25 43 .239 .694
Prorated LA 3.34 18 0 1 1 0 19 17 2 8 15 .239 .694
Actual LA 5.09 13 0 0 1 0 18 21 4 7 15 .300 .896
Prior to the season, Olson signed a two-year, $3.5 million deal, but
after two appearances, he pinched a nerve in his forearm and spent the
next three months on the DL. Upon his return, he wasn't effective except
in one unusual way -- he throws right-handed but continues to have remarkable
success against lefties (.228 average over the past five years, .115 last
year). In his two years in Arizona, Olson was a good setup man and middle
reliever, so the Dodgers look for him to bounce back and contribute.
Terry Adams, setup man, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 3.27 70 0 6 7 3 99 90 9 47 85 .246 .697
Prorated LA 3.27 62 0 5 6 3 87 79 8 41 75 .246 .697
Actual LA 3.52 66 0 6 9 2 84 80 6 39 56 .245 .662
In his five years with the Cubs, Adams never developed into the closer
they hoped for, so they dealt him to LA in the Young/Valdes deal. The
Dodgers used Adams to setup for Jeff Shaw, resulting in his best performance
since his rookie season. There was concern about Adams' recent elbow problems,
but he stayed healthy throughout the season and threw the most innings
in four years. There still may be cause for concern because he was slightly
worse in the second half (4.30 ERA after the break compared to 2.89 before)
but Adams is poised to remain LA's primary setup man.
Mike Fetters, setup man, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 3.94 23 0 2 1 0 32 29 3 16 25 .244 .722
Prorated LA 3.94 34 0 3 1 0 47 42 4 23 36 .244 .722
Actual LA 3.24 51 0 6 2 5 50 35 7 25 40 .205 .670
At age 35, Fetters had arguably his best season since his outstanding
1992 campaign. Although he held batters to an extremely low average, Fetters
continued to walk a batter once every two innings and allowed the most
homeruns since 1990. Left-handed batters have given Fetters problems in
the past, and while they hit six of the seven homers that he allowed,
they only batted .189 (85 points lower than their batting average against
Fetters over the last five years). He has been injury prone in the past,
but last year he missed only a chunk of May due to an inflamed elbow and
went on to make more appearances than expected.
Jeff Shaw, closer, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection LA 2.78 70 0 5 5 36 78 72 8 19 53 .247 .665
Prorated LA 2.78 55 0 4 4 28 61 57 6 15 42 .247 .665
Actual LA 4.24 60 0 3 4 27 57 61 7 16 39 .265 .751
In Shaw's first two seasons as a closer, he was used several times to
get more than three outs to earn a save, but since Johnson took over as
skipper, he's been used as a typical one-inning closer. This year was
his worst season as a closer -- enemy batters hit for a significantly
higher average and only Billy Wagner and Rick Aguilera blew more saves.
Shaw maintained his great control and pitched as expected against right-handed
batters, but he was uncharacteristically torched by lefties, allowing
them to hit 74 points higher than over the last five seasons and with
more power. If Shaw continues to slide in 2001, don't be surprised to
see Adams, Fetters, or Olson get a shot at closing.
Outlook
For some strange reason, I actually believed Malone might learn from
past mistakes and not commit to long-term deals worth big-time money for
small-time players. I assumed that he had to realize the White
and Perez signings were panic moves that turned out to be huge failures.
Early on in the free agency period, the Dodgers remained a quiet player
in the A-Rod sweepstakes and were included in the trade rumors for Johnny
Damon. But Malone felt they needed to focus on improving the pitching
staff instead of their offense. So they signed Dreifort to Pedro Martinez
type money, threw another $22.5 million over three years at the average-at-best
Andy Ashby, and angered other owners by giving Park a huge settlement
to avoid arbitration.
Malone's less expensive efforts to improve the pitching included bringing
back Ramon Martinez as his Hershiser of 2001. For the sake of LA fans,
I hope Ramon's return is more successful. In search of a bullpen lefty,
the Dodgers invited Jim Morris, Yorkis Perez, and Matt Whisenant to spring
training.
They let Hundley's powerful bat go to the Cubs and failed to bring in
any significant offensive help. I guess the plan is to depend on strong
pitching and hope Sheffield and Green can duplicate their 2000 and 1999
success, respectively, while Beltre continues to improve. I expect to
see the Dodgers involved in a lot of low-scoring games because they'll
be playing an unbalanced schedule in a division focused on pitching.
Even though it's hard to pinpoint how this team will be better than it
was a year ago, their hitting, pitching and team defense -- overall defense,
that is, not just errors -- were all above average last year. As a result,
new manager Jim Tracy should have the Dodgers in the thick of a competitive
NL West race.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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