2000 Post-Season Review -- Milwaukee Brewers
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
February 14, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Milwaukee Brewers performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 736 740
Runs allowed 927 826
Run Margin -191 -86
Wins 64 73
Pythagorean wins 63 72
Placement 6th 3rd
The Brewers weren't projected to do well at all in 2000, and it wasn't
what anyone would call a successful season. However, better-than-expected
performances from outfielder Geoff Jenkins and pitchers Jeff D'Amico and
Curt Leskanic, as well as solid play from a few others, lifted Milwaukee
to 73 wins. The club played 29-26 ball following a major July 28 deal
with the Indians that brought Richie Sexson to the Brewers.
While the Brewers certainly have poor personnel, they also make poor
personnel decisions. The choice of Kevin Barker to open the season at
first base backfired, as anyone familiar with his minor-league record
and his skills should have been able to predict. Jose Hernandez proved
to be incapable of everyday play, as the Cubs had already decided. A passel
of low-cost rejects brought on-board to constitute a bench contributed
almost nothing.
The pitching staff was pockmarked by injuries, but also by managerial
impatience. A decision to haul every available pitcher with ten fingers
and two arms into a Brewers uniform further compounded the existing confusion.
Key Position Players
Milwaukee ranked last in the NL during 2000 in both batting average and
on-base percentage and led only Philadelphia in slugging percentage. The
Brew Crew scored 740 runs, which ranked 13th, ahead of the Phillies, Florida,
and Montreal. It was a bad offense which performed up (down?) to projections.
However, the hitters aren't quite as bad as they looked, because County
Stadium in its last year was (again) a pitcher's park.
Even the Brewers' best offensive players had major weaknesses. Left fielder
Geoff Jenkins (.303, 34 homers) drew but 33 walks; right fielder Jeromy
Burnitz (31 homers, 99 walks) batted .232. Leadoff hitter Ron Belliard
walked 82 times, but hit just .263 and stole only seven bases in 12 tries.
Trade acquisition Richie Sexson slugged .559 for the Brewers in 57 games,
but struck out 63 times in just 213 at-bats.
And it got worse, much worse. Tyler Houston finished third on the team
with 18 home runs, but posted a miserable .292 on-base percentage. Both
Jose Hernandez and Marquis Grissom hit .244 with sporadic power, little
speed, and terrible on-base numbers. Add that to sub-average offense at
catcher and shortstop, and you have the Brewers in a (cracked) nutshell.
Milwaukee's bench was also poor. Charlie Hayes no longer has the power
to play a corner position, while Sean Berry was 7-for-46 before his release.
Luis Lopez and Angel Echevarria provided little. Mark Sweeney, signed
to be the club's top pinch-hitter, was instead injured much of the year
and did not hit a thing. Neither Lyle nor James Mouton hit enough to be
helpful, although the latter showed speed and defensive versatility.
Henry Blanco, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 463 102 23 0 9 46 50 1 54 2 80 3 2 .220 .301 .328 .629 48
Prorated Mil 286 63 14 0 6 28 31 1 33 1 49 2 1 .220 .301 .328 .629 29
Actual Mil 284 67 24 0 7 29 31 0 36 6 60 0 3 .236 .318 .394 .712 34
Much has been made of Blanco's astonishing 59% success rate at nabbing
base thieves in 2000, and he did indeed enjoy a tremendous season behind
the dish. Blanco also showed surprising extra-base power, smacking 24
doubles -- a substantial total for a full-time catcher -- despite fewer
than 300 at-bats. Difficulty making contact will keep Blanco from All-Star
status despite his strong overall defensive skills, but he did bat .306
against left-handers.
Raul Casanova, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 69 16 3 0 2 8 9 1 5 0 11 0 0 .232 .293 .362 .656 7
Prorated Mil 244 57 11 0 7 28 32 4 18 0 39 0 0 .232 .293 .362 .656 25
Actual Mil 231 57 13 3 6 20 36 4 26 1 48 1 2 .247 .331 .407 .738 31
A switch-hitting catcher, even a mediocre one such as Casanova, is a
precious commodity. He took some walks, which got his on-base percentage
up to a tolerable level. Unlike a lot of switch-hitters, he was roughly
equally effective against both lefties and righties (.247 average, .730
OPS against righties and .246 average, .759 OPS against lefties).
Kevin Barker, 1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 421 106 18 4 15 59 74 2 36 2 81 2 2 .252 .310 .420 .731 54
Prorated Mil 111 28 5 1 4 16 19 1 9 1 21 1 1 .252 .310 .420 .731 14
Actual Mil 100 22 5 0 2 14 9 1 20 0 21 1 0 .220 .352 .330 .682 14
Barker opened the season as the Brewers' regular first baseman. By September,
he was outrighted off the Brewers' 40-man roster. What he did on the field
explains why. Asking Barker, an average (at best) offensive performer
in the minors, to play every day in the majors at a power position was
a stretch, and the club paid dearly for its misguided faith in him.
Richie Sexson, 1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 598 153 29 3 31 88 125 5 48 1 131 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 83
Prorated Cle 324 83 16 2 17 48 68 3 26 1 71 2 2 .256 .313 .470 .783 45
Actual Cle 324 83 16 1 16 45 44 4 25 0 96 1 0 .256 .315 .460 .774 46
Prorated Mil 228 58 11 1 12 34 48 2 18 0 50 1 1 .256 .313 .470 .783 32
Actual Mil 213 63 14 0 14 44 47 3 34 2 63 1 0 .296 .398 .559 .957 50
Prorated Tot 552 141 27 3 29 81 115 5 44 1 121 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 77
Actual Tot 537 146 30 1 30 89 91 7 59 2 159 2 0 .272 .349 .499 .848 95
After a fair-enough performance in Cleveland, Sexson came to the Brewers
in late July as the centerpiece of a seven-player deal. His fine showing
in Milwaukee (.309, seven homers in 110 at-bats at County Stadium) gave
local fans reason for optimism. He's not a .296 hitter, but Sexson's raw
power is undeniable. While he is always going to strike out a lot, and
last year fanned even more than was expected, Sexson hit .333 with 12
homers in 141 at-bats in night games -- a situation in which many high-strikeout
players usually struggle. This case is not closed: Sexson could improve
with experience or the league's pitchers could catch up with him.
Tyler Houston, 1b/3b/c, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 119 27 4 0 3 12 14 0 10 1 28 0 0 .227 .287 .336 .623 11
Prorated Mil 281 64 9 0 7 28 33 0 24 2 66 0 0 .227 .287 .336 .623 26
Actual Mil 284 71 15 0 18 30 43 0 17 3 72 2 1 .250 .292 .493 .785 36
Houston finished third on the Brewers in home runs, but his intolerable
strikeout numbers and poor on-base ability make it difficult to use him.
His range at first and third base is good enough for him to play, but
Houston simply can't hit southpaws. Baseball insiders believe that he
just doesn't do the job against good pitchers from either side.
Angel Echevarria, 1b/rf/lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 69 21 4 0 3 10 13 1 5 0 12 0 0 .304 .360 .493 .853 11
Prorated Col 8 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 .304 .360 .493 .853 2
Actual Col 9 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 .111 .111 .111 .222 0
Prorated Mil 45 14 3 0 2 7 8 1 3 0 8 0 0 .304 .360 .493 .853 7
Actual Mil 42 9 2 0 1 3 4 0 7 0 9 0 0 .214 .327 .333 .660 5
Prorated Tot 53 16 3 0 2 8 10 1 4 0 9 0 0 .304 .360 .493 .853 9
Actual Tot 51 10 2 0 1 3 6 0 7 0 11 0 0 .196 .293 .294 .587 5
A spare left fielder/first baseman with no special tools, Echevarria
can only hope to be around somewhere as a 25th man.
Ron Belliard, 2b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 524 146 30 4 9 81 62 4 67 1 73 14 10 .279 .362 .403 .765 76
Prorated Mil 580 161 33 4 10 90 69 4 74 1 81 15 11 .279 .362 .403 .765 84
Actual Mil 571 150 30 9 8 83 54 3 82 4 84 7 5 .263 .354 .389 .743 83
Belliard's first full season in the majors was encouraging in some ways
but discouraging in others. The problems? His average against righties
was just .257, and he hit just .213 in both July and August. Belliard's
defense at second base, previously hailed as All-Star caliber, was actually
no better than average either in range or fielding percentage. In a related
issue, Belliard also did not steal bases often or effectively. Scouts
believe that Belliard's increased bulk has dramatically reduced his mobility.
A second baseman with a speed-and-defense resume cannot afford this. However,
Belliard did take plenty of walks, showed some power and run-producing
ability, and hustled.
Jose Hernandez, 3b/ss/lf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 552 146 25 5 21 87 75 4 55 5 151 7 5 .264 .335 .442 .777 81
Prorated Mil 446 118 20 4 17 70 61 3 44 4 122 6 4 .264 .335 .442 .777 65
Actual Mil 446 109 22 1 11 51 59 6 41 3 125 3 7 .244 .315 .372 .687 50
Hernandez' first season in Milwaukee looks like a washout, and in most
ways it was. However, it was the Brewers who decided he was an
everyday player. The former Cubs all-purpose fill-in is an average defensive
third baseman who is also playable at shortstop. This, and his occasional
punch, are his best markers. Hernandez still chases too many breaking
balls, but can hit the heater. His drop in power last season was
a surprise. If spotted effectively, Hernandez is a useful reserve and
spot starter.
Charlie Hayes, 3b/1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 66 16 2 0 2 8 11 0 8 0 11 0 0 .242 .320 .364 .684 8
Prorated Mil 383 93 12 0 12 46 64 0 46 0 64 0 0 .242 .320 .364 .684 45
Actual Mil 370 93 17 0 9 46 46 1 57 4 84 1 1 .251 .348 .370 .718 49
While Hayes does some things well (hit left-handers, take the base on
balls), there is no way he should be getting 450 plate appearances for
a major-league team. No longer an acceptable third baseman, he doesn't
hit enough to compensate for his lack of range. Houston has signed him
for 2001.
Sean Berry, 3b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 180 47 8 1 4 23 22 3 16 1 33 0 0 .261 .328 .383 .712 23
Prorated Mil 45 12 2 0 1 6 5 1 4 0 8 0 0 .261 .328 .383 .712 6
Actual Mil 46 7 2 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 13 0 1 .152 .220 .261 .481 2
Prorated Bos 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .261 .328 .383 .712 0
Actual Bos 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Prorated Tot 48 13 2 0 1 6 6 1 4 0 9 0 0 .261 .328 .383 .712 6
Actual Tot 50 7 2 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 15 0 1 .140 .204 .240 .444 2
Berry's decline from valuable fifth infielder to injured, immobile spare
part was shockingly quick. With his bat speed gone, he'll be lucky to
land on anyone's roster this spring.
Mark Loretta, ss, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 608 180 35 5 9 90 74 9 61 1 71 6 2 .296 .365 .414 .779 94
Prorated Mil 351 104 20 3 5 52 43 5 35 1 41 3 1 .296 .365 .414 .779 54
Actual Mil 352 99 21 1 7 49 40 1 37 2 38 0 3 .281 .350 .406 .757 49
There are very few questions left to answer about Loretta. He is an intelligent,
consistent player who can hit singles and take a few walks. His speed
is non-existent, he has little power, and his range is well-below-average
at short, although he has excellent hands. Last season he missed significant
time from June to August because of a broken foot. His drop in batting
average last season is entirely due to the injury; Loretta hit .305 beforehand
and only .250 after returning.
For a team like the Brewers, who have few prospects in the pipeline,
a player like Loretta is incredibly valuable: he is consistent, knows
how the game is played, wants to be on the field, and won't embarrass
his manager or teammates with bonehead plays.
Luis Lopez, ss/2b/3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 162 41 8 1 2 22 17 3 14 1 36 1 1 .253 .322 .352 .674 18
Prorated Mil 201 51 10 1 2 27 21 4 17 1 45 1 1 .253 .322 .352 .674 23
Actual Mil 201 53 14 0 6 24 27 5 9 1 35 1 2 .264 .309 .423 .732 26
Lopez' defense at shortstop deteriorated last season to the point where
he was hardly playable at the position. However, he hit effectively in
June and July, when asked to play regularly following Mark Loretta's injury.
He has terrible on-base skills, although his power was surprisingly good.
If Lopez gets back some of what he has lost at shortstop, he will remain
a helpful spare part.
Santiago Perez, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 70 16 2 1 1 9 6 0 4 0 14 3 1 .229 .267 .329 .595 6
Prorated Mil 59 13 2 1 1 8 5 0 3 0 12 3 1 .229 .267 .329 .595 5
Actual Mil 52 9 2 0 0 8 2 1 8 2 9 4 0 .173 .290 .212 .502 4
The Brewers dealt the promising but so far disappointing Perez to the
Padres in the off-season, where he will join a bunch of other question
marks in a battle for the starting shortstop job.
Geoff Jenkins, lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 584 167 45 6 21 88 99 7 48 7 124 4 3 .286 .346 .491 .838 97
Prorated Mil 512 146 39 5 18 77 87 6 42 6 109 4 3 .286 .346 .491 .838 85
Actual Mil 512 155 36 4 34 100 94 15 33 6 135 11 1 .303 .360 .588 .948 109
As the Brewers' reigning star, Jenkins does most things extremely well.
He hits for impressive power (16 homers in the last two months of 2000),
is smart on the basepaths, hangs in against lefties (.283, five homers
in 120 at-bats), and displays very good range and throwing skills in left
field.
Whether Jenkins can maintain his pace is the only question. Most stars
don't draw as few as 33 walks a season; the 35 bases on balls he drew
in 1999 are a professional high. His strikeouts rose dramatically last
season, and his propensity for chasing everything in the same zip code
as home plate could well be exploited by smart veteran pitchers.
Lyle Mouton, lf/rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 68 19 4 0 3 10 11 1 5 0 14 2 1 .279 .333 .471 .804 10
Prorated Mil 99 28 6 0 4 15 16 1 7 0 20 3 1 .279 .333 .471 .804 15
Actual Mil 97 27 7 1 2 14 16 1 10 0 29 1 0 .278 .349 .433 .782 15
The Brewers needed and expected more power from Mouton, who is only in
the picture because of his supposed home-run pop. He is barely usable
in left field, and will be in camp with Florida this year.
Mark Sweeney, lf/dh, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 65 17 3 0 1 10 8 0 9 0 10 0 0 .262 .347 .354 .701 8
Prorated Mil 75 20 3 0 1 12 9 0 10 0 12 0 0 .262 .347 .354 .701 10
Actual Mil 73 16 6 0 1 9 6 1 12 1 18 0 0 .219 .337 .342 .680 9
When Sweeney was healthy (he hit the DL twice in 2000), he didn't hit
well, even in his usual role as a pinch hitter (10-for-54). In his defense,
however, it is difficult to stay sharp when you're only playing occasionally,
and missing time with injuries only compounds the problem. Sweeney has
inked a Triple-A deal with Milwaukee and could be on Davey Lopes' opening-day
roster with a solid spring.
Marquis Grissom, cf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 583 155 28 2 17 79 74 2 44 2 99 18 7 .266 .318 .408 .726 75
Prorated Mil 587 156 28 2 17 79 74 2 44 2 100 18 7 .266 .318 .408 .726 75
Actual Mil 595 145 18 2 14 67 62 0 39 2 99 20 10 .244 .288 .351 .640 60
The 2000 season was yet another step down the ladder for Grissom. Given
his current level of ability, it's instructive to recall that he was once
viewed as one of the rising young stars of the game. By all accounts,
Grissom is a great guy and a team leader, which makes his on-field decline
all the more painful to watch.
He is signed through the 2002 campaign, but Grip may end up the game's
highest-paid reserve should the newly-signed Jeffrey Hammonds hit as well
as the Brewers expect. The one positive in Grissom's record is an increasing
effectiveness against southpaws (.304 BA, .751 OPS last year), which could
at least make him useful in a spot role.
James Mouton, cf/lf/rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 66 18 3 1 1 10 8 1 7 0 13 4 1 .273 .351 .394 .745 9
Prorated Mil 173 47 8 3 3 26 21 3 18 0 34 11 3 .273 .351 .394 .745 25
Actual Mil 159 37 7 1 2 28 17 3 30 0 43 13 4 .233 .363 .327 .690 22
Mouton does some things well -- steal bases, take walks, hit reasonably
well against lefties. He also played a good outield in 2000 in limited
usage. He's not a good hitter and never will be, but Mouton's speed and
versatility should keep him around for another season.
Lou Collier, cf/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 67 17 3 0 1 9 8 1 6 0 13 1 1 .254 .320 .343 .663 8
Prorated Mil 35 9 2 0 1 5 4 1 3 0 7 1 1 .254 .320 .343 .663 4
Actual Mil 32 7 1 0 1 9 2 0 6 0 4 0 0 .219 .333 .344 .677 4
Collier can fill in all over the diamond, but isn't a hitter and is prone
to mistakes both in the field and on the bases. He is really a Triple-A
player.
Jeromy Burnitz, rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mil 544 144 35 1 32 92 108 11 87 6 142 8 4 .265 .374 .509 .883 108
Prorated Mil 576 152 37 1 34 97 114 12 92 6 150 8 4 .265 .374 .509 .883 114
Actual Mil 564 131 29 2 31 91 98 14 99 10 121 6 4 .232 .356 .456 .811 97
Burnitz picked a bad season to complain. He spent most of 2000 whining
about being stuck in Milwaukee, and by the end of the year, even his most
loyal fans wouldn't have minded his departure. Last December, the Brewers
thought they had a deal to send him to San Diego, but the trade fell through.
While Burnitz' 38-point drop in batting average was a real disappointment
(he hit only .230 on the year against righties, a shocking slide), he
still did some things effectively. Burnitz led the club in walks and produced
impact power on a team that really needed it. Burnitz is a good player
even hitting .232, but is capable of much more.
Key Pitchers
Milwaukee's staff finished with a 4.63 ERA, exactly the league average,
though they did play their home games in a pitcher's park. So the Brewers'
staff really rates a little below par. Nevertheless, the Milwaukee mound
corps allowed 101 runs fewer than projected. Much of the improvement can
be attributed to the strong and unexpected comeback by Jeff D'Amico and
the addition of Paul Rigdon, who came over with Sexson in return for Jason
Bere (4.93 ERA), Steve Woodard (5.96 ERA), and Bob Wickman.
The best -- and most gutsy -- decision the Brewers made all year was
the release of Jaime Navarro after five miserable starts. While Milwaukee
had to gulp down the last year of the unhappy righty's expensive contract,
getting him out of the picture at least improved the situation in the
clubhouse and gave others a chance to pitch.
D'Amico had a spectacular season, coming back from two and a half years
of arm injuries to finish third in the NL in ERA. Other starters didn't
fare as well, though Jamey Wright showed real promise.
The bullpen ranked second-to-last in the league in saves: David Weathers
blew 7 of 8 save opportunities, and Valerio de los Santos had major problems
with the home run ball. However, after closer Bob Wickman was dealt to
Cleveland, Curt Leskanic converted 12 of 13 save chances.
Steve Woodard, starter / reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 4.49 32 32 12 12 0 213 232 25 43 158 .279 .765
Prorated Mil 4.49 15 15 6 6 0 103 112 12 21 76 .279 .765
Actual Mil 5.96 27 11 1 7 0 94 125 16 33 65 .325 .906
Prorated Cle 4.49 8 8 3 3 0 54 59 6 11 40 .279 .765
Actual Cle 5.67 13 11 3 3 0 54 57 10 11 35 .269 .800
Prorated Tot 4.49 24 24 9 9 0 156 171 18 32 116 .279 .765
Actual Tot 5.85 40 22 4 10 0 148 182 26 44 100 .305 .869
Woodard lost his job in the Brewers' rotation after compiling a 5.64
ERA in his first eight starts, working as a middle reliever and spot starter
until the July 28 deal that sent him to Cleveland. He was a little better
but still not good with the Indians, getting hit hard and allowing 10
home runs in only 54 innings. Always a tightrope-walker due to his minus
velocity, Woodard can't live without perfect control. He faces the challenge
of re-establishing himself as a major-league pitcher.
Jamey Wright, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.15 32 32 10 12 0 185 206 19 90 100 .286 .807
Prorated Mil 5.15 28 28 9 10 0 160 178 16 78 86 .286 .807
Actual Mil 4.10 26 25 7 9 0 165 157 12 88 96 .261 .722
Getting out of Colorado helped Wright's ERA improve significantly. However,
he still walks far too many hitters. He began the 2000 season disabled
with a slight tear in his rotator cuff, and even when he came back, the
movement (and effectiveness) of his curve, slider, and sinking fastball
were reduced. Wright's future depends on whether he can get his breaking
stuff back and further refine his command. He has gotten better against
lefties, but doesn't get right-handers out as consistently as he should.
Jimmy Haynes, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.39 32 32 9 11 0 169 191 22 87 130 .286 .832
Prorated Mil 5.39 37 37 11 13 0 197 223 26 102 152 .286 .832
Actual Mil 5.33 33 33 12 13 0 199 228 21 100 88 .295 .805
After a promising April (3-1, 3.98), Haynes fell apart, and in fact got
worse as the season went along. He is willing to take the ball and is
durable, but when Haynes can't throw his curve for strikes, he pays the
price. There is little deception in his motion, making his fairly straight
fastball very easy for batters to pick up. While he is not an extreme
ground ball pitcher, Haynes did induce 29 double plays, ranking him third
in the NL. Should Haynes continue to bomb out as a starter, he might end
up in middle relief due to his ability to get the key DP grounder.
Jason Bere, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.94 27 27 6 10 0 126 146 17 80 92 .291 .859
Prorated Mil 5.94 23 23 5 9 0 109 127 15 69 80 .291 .859
Actual Mil 4.93 20 20 6 7 0 115 115 19 63 98 .264 .794
Prorated Cle 5.94 11 11 3 4 0 53 62 7 34 39 .291 .859
Actual Cle 6.63 11 11 6 3 0 54 65 6 26 44 .297 .820
Prorated Tot 5.94 35 35 8 13 0 162 189 22 103 119 .291 .859
Actual Tot 5.47 31 31 12 10 0 169 180 25 89 142 .275 .803
The last season that Bere was both healthy and effective was 1994. Since
then, wildness and elbow injuries have taken the spark out of his career.
While with Milwaukee, Bere allowed 11 homers in County Stadium, tied for
most on the Brewers' staff despite pitching just 61 innings at the park.
He can't keep the ball over the plate, has no platoon advantage against
right-handers, and was worse with the contending Indians than with the
moribund Brewers. Yet he has signed a two-year contract with the Cubs,
who expect him to make 30-35 starts.
Jeff D'Amico, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 4.58 19 0 1 1 0 18 18 3 7 12 .269 .790
Prorated Mil 4.58 9 9 0 155 158 26 61 105 .269 .790
Actual Mil 2.66 23 23 12 7 0 162 143 14 46 101 .238 .662
"Big Daddy" made a tremendous comeback in 2000 despite beginning the
season at Triple-A and making just one appearance in June due to a sore
shoulder. D'Amico, 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA in May, was 5-0 in July, allowing
just four earned runs in 47.2 innings. He continued his effectiveness
in August and September, ending up third among NL pitchers in ERA.
The imposing right-hander isn't afraid to work his average-minus to average
fastball in and out to set up hitters, and he is completely fearless on
the mound. He throws strikes and shows good command of all of his pitches.
D'Amico's best offering is a baffling changeup that hitters from both
sides can't resist chasing. It is impossible to believe that D'Amico can
remain healthy for the rest of his career, but as long as he is physically
able, he will be an effective starting pitcher.
Jaime Navarro, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.90 34 4 4 6 0 82 101 12 34 45 .305 .845
Prorated Mil 5.90 10 1 1 2 0 23 28 3 10 13 .305 .845
Actual Mil 12.54 5 5 0 5 0 19 34 6 18 7 .410 1.252
Prorated Cle 5.90 6 1 1 1 0 15 19 2 6 8 .305 .845
Actual Cle 7.98 7 2 0 1 0 15 20 3 5 9 .328 .967
Prorated Tot 5.90 16 2 2 3 0 38 47 6 16 21 .305 .845
Actual Tot 10.53 12 7 0 6 0 33 54 9 23 16 .375 1.134
Navarro was about as bad as a pitcher could be last year. He has signed
with the Blue Jays for 2001, but needs to get back both his stuff and
his perspective in order to be successful. He also needs to keep his big
mouth shut unless he starts pitching a helluva lot better, as the life
expectancy of chronic malcontents like Navarro is directly related to
how well they perform.
John Snyder, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.91 4 4 1 2 0 21 25 3 8 13 .294 .840
Prorated Mil 5.91 25 25 6 12 0 132 155 19 50 81 .294 .840
Actual Mil 6.17 23 23 3 10 0 127 147 8 77 69 .296 .807
Snyder was bothered for much of the season by a seriously strained left
oblique muscle that kept him from action until May 21. He failed to win
a game after June, a month in which he was 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA. Snyder
depends on pinpoint control to win: while he does keep the ball low, he
cannot afford nearly as many walks as he ceded last season. If he gets
his curve and changeup back to their 1998 levels, Snyder can win. If not,
he won't be in the majors much longer.
Horacio Estrada, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 6.23 9 0 1 1 0 17 21 4 9 14 .304 .938
Prorated Mil 6.23 14 0 2 2 0 26 32 6 14 21 .304 .938
Actual Mil 6.29 7 4 3 0 0 24 30 5 20 13 .300 1.023
Estrada led the International League in wins last year (14-4 with a 3.33
ERA) while playing for Indianapolis. A finesse pitcher whose command has
always been in question, Estrada will have to fight his way through other,
more talented youngsters in the Milwaukee system to get another chance.
Paul Rigdon, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cle 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 21 3 6 9 .300 .865
Prorated Cle 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 21 3 6 9 .300 .865
Actual Cle 7.64 5 4 1 1 0 18 21 4 9 15 .300 .937
Prorated Mil 5.60 12 12 4 4 0 68 81 12 23 35 .300 .865
Actual Mil 4.52 12 12 4 4 0 70 68 14 26 48 .255 .778
Prorated Tot 5.60 15 15 5 5 0 86 103 15 29 44 .300 .865
Actual Tot 5.15 17 16 5 5 0 87 89 18 35 63 .264 .811
Rigdon couldn't crack Cleveland's rotation, but after being traded to
Milwaukee on July 28, he ended up starting a dozen contests. Rigdon has
worse-than-average velocity and only average movement on his pitches;
he survives by changing speeds and fooling hitters. While he won't survive
long as a starter with his stuff, Rigdon does know how to use his five
pitches and should be able to craft a decent career a serviceable middle
reliever.
Juan Acevedo, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 4.86 32 32 8 10 0 174 189 22 70 108 .278 .790
Prorated Mil 4.86 14 14 4 5 0 79 85 10 32 49 .278 .790
Actual Mil 3.81 62 0 3 7 0 83 77 11 31 51 .246 .746
If Acevedo's command were better, he could fill a more important role.
Unfortunately, while he gets righties out consistently, he can't do much
with his slider, curve, or change-up, which means lefties eat him up,
and Acevedo is too often up in the strike zone with his mid-90s fastball.
At age 30, it is difficult to imagine him turning a corner with his control.
Everett Stull, reliever / spot starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Mil 5.82 20 4 2 3 0 43 41 7 30 33 .256 .799
Stull, who throws very hard, held righties to a .237 mark last year.
That's all he did right as he showed no command, walked everyone in sight,
and couldn't get out lefties. He has little chance to contribute to a
winning team.
Jim Bruske, middle reliever, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 3.92 30 0 2 3 0 41 43 4 17 28 .270 .755
Prorated Mil 3.92 14 0 1 1 0 20 20 2 8 13 .270 .755
Actual Mil 6.48 15 0 1 0 0 17 22 5 12 8 .314 1.009
The journeyman righty still throws hard, but he hasn't mastered any other
part of the game and the lights are growin' dim...
Valerio de los Santos, reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.05 70 0 4 6 1 93 108 14 42 68 .292 .839
Prorated Mil 5.05 53 0 3 5 1 71 82 11 32 52 .292 .839
Actual Mil 5.13 66 2 2 3 0 74 72 15 33 70 .254 .803
De los Santos has very good stuff, especially for a southpaw, but can't
get the ball over the plate with any consistency and isn't ready to play
a critical role in the majors. Lefties hit .273 against him, while righties
slugged .462, hitting 10 homers in just 173 at-bats.
Ray King, reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.86 13 0 1 1 0 17 19 3 10 13 .292 .897
Prorated Mil 4.86 19 0 1 1 0 24 27 4 14 19 .292 .897
Actual Mil 1.26 36 0 3 2 0 29 18 1 10 19 .180 .492
The Cubs traded him to Milwaukee for virtually nothing on April 14. King
was recalled from Triple-A three separate times last year by the Brewers,
and the more he pitched, the better he was. From August 6 to September
3 he didn't allow a run, although this was over a span of just 12.2 innings.
On the year he held righties to a .157 average, and lefties batted just
.204. At this rate, King deserves a chance to fail; he has pitched effectively
at Triple-A for the last three seasons and should get an extended chance
to prove whether he can succeed in the bigs.
Dave Weathers, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 5.07 53 0 3 4 0 71 84 8 29 59 .297 .823
Prorated Mil 5.07 53 0 3 4 0 71 85 8 29 59 .297 .823
Actual Mil 3.07 69 0 3 5 1 76 73 7 32 50 .260 .723
The strong and durable Weathers is a middle reliever, pure and simple.
Usually pounded by lefties, he held them to a .223 mark in 2000, while
he did his usual (.278, .756 OPS) against righties. Weathers is a tenth
pitcher at best, but he remains useful in that role. He can't do anything
else; last season he got eight save opportunities and kicked away seven
of them.
Curtis Leskanic, setup man / closer, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 3.59 70 0 6 4 3 98 88 8 52 85 .244 .719
Prorated Mil 3.59 56 0 5 3 2 77 70 6 41 67 .244 .719
Actual Mil 2.56 73 0 9 3 12 77 58 7 51 75 .212 .673
2000 was Leskanic's best season since 1995, when he helped the Rockies
to the postseason. He still throws extremely hard, although his control
remains a problem. After the trade of Bob Wickman, Leskanic grabbed the
closer's job down the stretch and refused to let go. He allowed nine earned
runs in 14.1 frames during April; the rest of the way, Leskanic's ERA
was a minuscule 1.86. The biggest negative was that he had control problems
against both left-handed and right-handed batters, largely as a result
of poor mechanics.
Bob Wickman, closer, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 3.58 70 0 4 6 30 73 72 6 34 62 .262 .720
Prorated Mil 3.58 43 0 2 4 18 45 44 4 21 38 .262 .720
Actual Mil 2.93 43 0 2 2 16 46 37 1 20 44 .215 .572
Prorated Cle 3.58 26 0 1 2 11 27 26 2 12 23 .262 .720
Actual Cle 3.38 26 0 1 3 14 27 27 0 12 11 .270 .688
Prorated Tot 3.58 69 0 4 6 29 72 71 6 33 61 .262 .720
Actual Tot 3.10 69 0 3 5 30 73 64 1 32 55 .235 .615
Wickman isn't flashy, but he has improved his command and gets strikeouts
with an explosive split-finger pitch. There is much to be said for a pitcher
who allows only one home run all season, and Wickman's offerings are consistently
low in the strike zone. However, he remains streaky and was quite ineffective
in his last six weeks with the Brewers. He blew seven save opportunities
in 2000. Oddly, his strikeouts dropped dramatically when he went to Cleveland,
but could still end up as the Tribe's closer this season.
Outlook
It is impossible to predict how the Brewers' offense and pitching will
be affected by the move to Miller Park for the 2001 season, but the dimensions
of the park will be much bigger than those of County Stadium. On the other
hand, the construction of the park should raise the temperature on the
field and could remove from the equation much of the wind that blew in
from County Stadium's open outfield.
Although the hoopla of moving into a new ballpark might focus attention
elsewhere for a awhile, Davey Lopes will have big challenges in his second
season as Brewers manager. The personnel isn't much improved from last
year, and it's asking a lot of Jeff D'Amico for him to both stay healthy
and pitch up to his 2000 level.
While he's not a star, Jeffrey Hammonds should be a far better all-around
performer in center field than was Marquis Grissom. The club's outfield
ought to be good, and Milwaukee is average overall (or close to it) at
second base, shortstop, and catcher. Big holes remain at third base, on
the bench, and in the starting rotation.
There are few rookies who could make an impact this season, although
highly-touted starting pitcher Ben Sheets might start the season in the
rotation with a good spring. Other pitching hopefuls, including Jose Mieses
and Nick Neugebauer, are realistically at least a year and a half away.
Unfortunately, the Brewers do not have a single quality position-playing
prospect at the high levels of their minor league system.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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