2000 Post-Season Review -- Minnesota Twins
By Tom Tippett
February 16, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Minnesota Twins performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 701 748
Runs allowed 900 880
Run Margin -199 -132
Wins 62 69
Pythagorean wins 61 68
Placement 5th 5th
There didn't seem to be much reason for optimism for Twins fans last
March. Here's what I wrote in my spring preview:
"It looks as if Minnesota will repeat as the worst offensive team
in the league. Last year, amid the offensive explosion, they barely
made the century mark in homeruns. They have a few guys who can hit
for average and get on base, and the addition of DH Butch Huskey should
help bring some of these runners around to score. But even their best
power hitters are projected for only 25-30 homers, totals that might
have been impressive at one time but look less so in an era when the
entire league averages is 20 homers per 600 atbats.
The pitching, led by Brad Radke and Eric Milton, surprised a lot of
people by finishing 5th in the league in runs allowed a year ago, but
is projected to slip quite a bit. They'll miss Mike Trombley (to Baltimore
via free agency) and Rick Aguilera (traded to the Cubs last year). In
1999, Radke had a 3.75 ERA despite yielding 239 hits and 28 homers in
219 innings, and he's likely to give up a few more runs this year if
he's not able to reduce these rates. Joe Mays, Bob Wells, and Travis
Miller are projected to give back a little ground in 2000 after having
unexpected success a year ago."
That's pretty much how things played out. The offense was a little better
than expected and finished 13th, not last, in scoring, but did indeed
trail all other big league teams in homeruns. Except for Bob Wells, who
had his best year, everything I wrote about the pitching proved to be
accurate.
In a division that produced a few surprises, Minnesota didn't provide
any. They had a losing record in every month, and were it not for the
Tigers awful start (6-17 in April), the Twins would have spent most of
the season in the basement. As it was, they finished 8 games behind the
4th-place Royals.
Key Position Players
Half empty or half full? Do we focus on the fact that the Twins scored
62 more runs than in 1999? Or that they were still 13th in the AL in scoring,
13th in the AL in walks, and (by a large margin) last in the majors in
homeruns?
Because this is a very young group, let's go for half full. Except for
Ron Coomer (33) and Denny Hocking (30), every position player was in his
twenties, and several of them -- Corey Koskie, Cristian Guzman, Jacque
Jones, Torii Hunter, and Matt Lawton -- raised their games nicely in the
past season. A few others (Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas and some of the
young catchers) seem poised to contribute in the next 2-3 years. There
are no star-quality players here -- not yet, anyway -- but if this group
continues to develop, it could evolve into a pretty solid lineup from
top to bottom.
Marcus Jensen, c, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 459 104 30 3 11 57 59 4 53 2 116 0 1 .227 .311 .377 .688 55
Prorated Min 145 33 9 1 3 18 19 1 17 1 37 0 0 .227 .311 .377 .688 17
Actual Min 139 29 7 1 3 16 14 0 24 0 36 0 1 .209 .325 .338 .663 16
Despite entering the season with only 140 career atbats under his belt,
Jensen won a share of the catching job coming out of spring training.
Although he showed an excellent batting eye, Jensen hit about as poorly
as expected, and that wasn't enough to hold onto his job. He was sent
down to AAA at the end of July and will be in camp with the Dodgers this
year.
Matt LeCroy, c/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 90 23 4 0 4 13 15 1 6 0 17 0 0 .256 .309 .433 .743 11
Prorated Min 176 45 8 0 8 25 29 2 12 0 33 0 0 .256 .309 .433 .743 22
Actual Min 167 29 10 0 5 18 17 2 17 2 38 0 0 .174 .254 .323 .577 13
Coming off a 1999 season in which he clouted a total of 30 homers in
A and AAA ball, LeCroy was expected to provide some power at the plate,
and for a couple of weeks it looked like he might just do that. But he
went into a terrible slump that lasted until he was sent back down to
the farm in mid-June. With a .535 slugging average and 15 homers in three
months, LeCroy confirmed what the team already knew -- he has nothing
more to prove in the minors. It's just a matter of time before he starts
to hit big-league pitching, too.
Chad Moeller, c, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Min 128 27 3 1 1 13 9 0 9 0 33 1 0 .211 .261 .273 .534 9
We didn't project any playing time for Moeller last year because he hadn't
really had much success as a hitter above A ball to that point. His hitting
stats were a little better with AAA Salt Lake last year than they had
been with AA New Britain, and even though a good part of the increase
had more to do with a move to a better hitter's park, he was given a shot
at the big leagues in June when LeCroy was sent down. Moeller didn't produce
any more than LeCroy had, but he held the job until his season was ended
by knee surgery in mid-August. Knee problems are not good news for a catcher,
and this is the third time he's had surgery on that knee.
A.J. Pierzynski, c, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 72 16 2 0 1 8 7 0 3 0 8 0 0 .222 .253 .292 .545 5
Prorated Min 92 20 3 0 1 10 9 0 4 0 10 0 0 .222 .253 .292 .545 6
Actual Min 88 27 5 1 2 12 11 2 5 0 14 1 0 .307 .354 .455 .809 15
Pierzynski was called up when Moeller was hurt and got the bulk of the
playing time over the last seven weeks of the season. He has never taken
a lot of walks, but has shown the ability to hit for average with about
10-15 homers a year. He was by far the most successful of the Twins catchers
in his limited trial.
Danny Ardoin, c, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 65 13 2 0 1 9 8 1 8 0 13 1 0 .200 .297 .277 .574 6
Prorated Min 35 7 1 0 1 5 4 1 4 0 7 1 0 .200 .297 .277 .574 3
Actual Min 32 4 1 0 1 4 5 0 8 0 10 0 0 .125 .300 .250 .550 3
Ardoin's minor-league record doesn't suggest that he'll be a successful
hitter in the big leagues. He began the year in the Oakland system and
was acquired by the Twins in a minor-league deal at the beginning of August.
He spent a month with Minnesota and was sent down for the last few days
of the AAA season.
Ron Coomer, 1b/3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 264 70 12 0 8 30 37 0 14 1 39 1 0 .265 .300 .402 .702 30
Prorated Min 555 147 25 0 17 63 78 0 29 2 82 2 0 .265 .300 .402 .702 63
Actual Min 544 147 29 1 16 64 82 4 36 2 50 2 0 .270 .317 .415 .733 66
A couple of years ago, most observers assumed that David Ortiz would
own the Twins 1B job for many years to come. But Ortiz worked his way
into Kelly's doghouse and spent most of the 1999 season in the minors,
opening up the 1B job for Coomer and Doug Mientkiewicz. Coomer has a decent
bat and the ability to play first, third and right, but his offense is
below the league average across the board, and he wouldn't be getting
500 atbats on a good team. After spending his entire career with the Twins,
Coomer has moved on to the Cubs for the 2001 season.
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 65 15 4 0 1 9 8 1 9 0 9 1 0 .231 .333 .338 .672 8
Prorated Min 13 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 .231 .333 .338 .672 2
Actual Min 14 6 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 .429 .400 .429 .829 2
The owner of a terrific batting eye and a very good glove, Mientkiewicz
had a chance to secure the starting 1B job in 1999 but squandered that
opportunity by hitting only .229 with just two homers in 327 atbats. Last
year, he resurrected his career with a strong .334/.406/.524 performance
at AAA Salt Lake and a leading role with the gold-medal winning US Olympic
team in Sydney. With Coomer gone, Mientkiewicz would appear to be the
heir apparent at first base for 2001, assuming Ortiz remains in the DH
role.
Todd Walker, 2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 592 169 37 3 12 82 63 2 59 6 83 18 9 .285 .351 .419 .770 85
Prorated Min 79 22 5 0 2 11 8 0 8 1 11 2 1 .285 .351 .419 .770 11
Actual Min 77 18 1 0 2 14 8 0 7 0 10 3 0 .234 .287 .325 .612 8
Prorated Col 177 50 11 1 4 25 19 1 18 2 25 5 3 .285 .351 .419 .770 26
Actual Col 171 54 10 4 7 28 36 1 20 0 19 4 1 .316 .385 .544 .928 38
Prorated Tot 255 73 16 1 5 35 27 1 25 3 36 8 4 .285 .351 .419 .770 37
Actual Tot 248 72 11 4 9 42 44 1 27 0 29 7 1 .290 .355 .476 .830 44
It took about a month for Walker to play himself out of the lineup and
back to AAA with a low batting average and more errors (4) than extra-base
hits (3). After a couple of months on the farm, he was traded to Colorado,
where the thin air (and possibly the change in managers) helped him boost
his batting stats back to their normal levels.
Jay Canizaro, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SF 66 14 3 0 2 11 10 0 8 0 12 1 1 .212 .293 .348 .642 7
Prorated Min 326 69 15 0 10 54 49 0 40 0 59 5 5 .212 .293 .348 .642 34
Actual Min 346 93 21 1 7 43 40 1 24 0 57 4 2 .269 .318 .396 .714 42
Canizaro, who was in the Giants organization until he was waived near
the end of spring training last year, got off to a torrid start at AAA
Salt Lake -- .356 average with 17 extra-base hits in 101 atbats -- and
made it much easier for the Twins to decide to replace Walker at second.
Although Canizaro was the better hitter of the two, he was still below
the league average, and his defensive range was among the worst in the
majors.
Denny Hocking, 2b/of/3b/ss/1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 114 30 5 1 2 15 11 1 8 0 18 2 1 .263 .315 .377 .692 13
Prorated Min 395 104 17 3 7 52 38 3 28 0 62 7 3 .263 .315 .377 .692 46
Actual Min 373 111 24 4 4 52 47 0 48 1 77 7 5 .298 .373 .416 .789 62
In what was by far his best year, Hocking started 85 games at seven different
positions and produced career highs in on-base percentage, doubles, total
bases, runs, RBI, and walks. Perhaps because he is moved around so much,
his defense is below average at every position other than first base,
and even at his peak, he doesn't hit well enough to overcome those defensive
limitations. Nevertheless, he'll be around for a while after signing a
three-year contract extension last spring.
Jason Maxwell, 2b/3b/ss/cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 67 15 3 0 1 9 8 0 7 0 13 1 0 .224 .293 .313 .607 7
Prorated Min 111 25 5 0 2 15 13 0 12 0 21 2 0 .224 .293 .313 .607 11
Actual Min 111 27 6 0 1 14 11 1 9 0 32 2 1 .243 .298 .324 .623 11
Maxwell is a versatile and skilled defensive player, but he'll never
hit well enough to be a starter for a competitive team.
Luis Rivas, 2b/ss, age 20
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Min 58 18 4 1 0 8 6 0 2 0 4 2 0 .310 .323 .414 .736 8
A converted shortstop, Rivas spent the year learning to play second base,
and is projected to be Cristian Guzman's double-play partner for years
to come. Even though he began the 2000 season at the same level (AA) as
he'd played the year before, and even though he didn't improve on his
performance the second time around, he earned a promotion to AAA and then
to the Twins.
He compiled some nice stats after he was called up, but I think this
overstates his hitting ability a little, at least for now. But he's very
young and has moved rapidly through the Twins system without being overmatched
at any level, so he's a good bet to continue developing in the coming
years. It's not out of the question that he could beat out Hocking and
Canizaro for the 2B job in 2001.
Corey Koskie, 3b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 560 151 27 1 21 77 90 7 61 5 112 8 6 .270 .345 .434 .779 84
Prorated Min 493 133 24 1 18 68 79 6 54 4 99 7 5 .270 .345 .434 .779 74
Actual Min 474 142 32 4 9 79 65 4 77 7 104 5 4 .300 .400 .441 .841 87
Despite the decrease in homers, Koskie was one of the few Twins to rank
in the top half of the players at his position. The extra doubles, triples,
and walks more than made up for the loss of homerun power, and he played
very good defense at the hot corner as well. If you're looking for a comparable
player, check out Mark Grace. Koskie has only played two seasons, but
his career averages are almost identical to Grace's, and both were/are
very good defensive players.
Casey Blake, 3b/1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 66 15 3 0 2 10 10 1 8 0 13 1 1 .227 .320 .364 .684 8
Prorated Min 18 4 1 0 1 3 3 0 2 0 4 0 0 .227 .320 .364 .684 2
Actual Min 16 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 7 0 0 .188 .333 .313 .646 2
Blake was claimed on waivers from the Blue Jays organization in May and
immediately assigned to AAA Salt Lake, where he earned a promotion by
hitting .312 with 12 homers in a half season. Blake's minor-league record
has been marked by inconsistency -- hitting .250 or less for two years
in A ball, tearing up two leagues for a combined .357 average in 1998,
then dropping back below .250 in a season-plus in AAA. On the plus side,
he has a decent batting eye and can run a little; the negatives are a
lack of power and questionable defense.
Cristian Guzman, ss, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 561 135 20 4 4 66 40 3 27 0 108 14 10 .241 .277 .312 .589 48
Prorated Min 639 154 23 5 5 75 46 3 31 0 123 16 11 .241 .277 .312 .589 54
Actual Min 631 156 25 20 8 89 54 2 46 1 101 28 10 .247 .299 .388 .687 76
Among players with 400 atbats, Guzman was the worst offensive player
in the league in his 1999 rookie season. When someone is thrust into the
starting lineup at a very young age and allowed to struggle, one always
wonders if that extended period of failure will harm his development.
But Guzman built on that experience and improved every aspect of his game
as a sophomore -- batting average up 21 points, 50% increase in his walk
rate, 53 extra-base hits, a league-leading 20 triples, and a 74% success
rate while stealing 28 bases. He was still among the bottom 25% in OPS
among everyday shortstops, but he'll rise rapidly in the rankings if he
continues to develop at this rate. My only concern is that he did most
of his damage in the first half; in the second half, he regressed almost
to the level of his rookie season.
Jacque Jones, lf/cf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 584 157 36 3 16 88 78 4 32 3 112 11 8 .269 .309 .423 .732 73
Prorated Min 515 138 32 3 14 78 69 4 28 3 99 10 7 .269 .309 .423 .732 65
Actual Min 523 149 26 5 19 66 76 0 26 4 111 7 5 .285 .319 .463 .781 70
The left-handed hitting Jones was quite successful against right-handed
pitchers (.294, 18 homers) and almost helpless against lefties (.230,
four walks, one homer). Although it doesn't show in his stolen bases,
Jones has good speed and was a top defensive outfielder who saved quite
a few runs for his pitching staff last year. He needs to improve his control
of the strike zone to make futher strides as a hitter.
Torii Hunter, cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 678 172 33 2 15 88 71 8 42 1 124 16 11 .254 .302 .375 .677 74
Prorated Min 329 83 16 1 7 43 34 4 20 0 60 8 5 .254 .302 .375 .677 36
Actual Min 336 94 14 7 5 44 44 2 18 2 68 4 3 .280 .318 .408 .726 40
The Twins sent Hunter down to AAA after he got off to a slow start --
.207 with only six walks and no homers in 140 atbats. Sometimes a little
time to regroup is all that a young player needs, and this was definitely
one of those times. He mashed AAA pitching for a .368 average and 18 homers
in a third of a season and didn't stop hitting after he was called back
up at the end of July. Over the last two months, Hunter batted .349 with
5 homers for the Twins. It would be nice to see him take a few more walks
and begin using his speed on the bases.
Matt Lawton, rf/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 566 148 29 2 16 87 76 11 83 7 65 20 7 .261 .364 .405 .769 88
Prorated Min 565 148 29 2 16 87 76 11 83 7 65 20 7 .261 .364 .405 .769 88
Actual Min 561 171 44 2 13 84 88 7 91 8 63 23 7 .305 .405 .460 .865 113
Lawton was progressing nicely toward this level of performance before
he suffered through a poor 1999 season. Midway through that disappointing
campaign, Lawton has hit in the face by a pitch and missed six weeks with
fractured eye socket. It's clear that he has bounced back without any
lingering effects from that scary incident. He was batting over .320 for
most of the season before a poor September pulled his seasonal averages
down. Lawton recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal
worth $3.9 million.
Midre Cummings, rf/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 67 18 4 0 2 10 11 1 7 0 10 1 1 .269 .347 .418 .765 10
Prorated Min 175 47 10 0 5 26 29 3 18 0 26 3 3 .269 .347 .418 .765 26
Actual Min 181 50 10 0 4 28 22 3 11 1 25 0 0 .276 .328 .398 .726 23
Prorated Bos 28 7 2 0 1 4 5 0 3 0 4 0 0 .269 .347 .418 .765 4
Actual Bos 25 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 6 0 3 0 0 .280 .419 .280 .699 3
Prorated Tot 203 54 12 0 6 30 33 3 21 0 30 3 3 .269 .347 .418 .765 30
Actual Tot 206 57 10 0 4 29 24 3 17 1 28 0 0 .277 .341 .383 .724 27
A long time ago, Cummings was regarded as one of the top prospects in
the Pirates organization. He made his debut as a 21-year-old in 1993,
but has never been able to land a full-time job, topping out at 314 atbats
in the 1997 season. Nowadays, Cummings is carving out a niche for himself
as one of the better pinch hitters in the game.
Brian Buchanan, rf/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 70 16 3 0 1 9 9 1 4 0 13 1 0 .229 .280 .314 .594 6
Prorated Min 87 20 4 0 1 11 11 1 5 0 16 1 0 .229 .280 .314 .594 8
Actual Min 82 19 3 0 1 10 8 1 8 0 22 0 2 .232 .301 .305 .606 7
Like many of his teammates, Buchanan earned a promotion after battering
AAA pitching at Salt Lake. With 27 homers in 364 atbats, he showed real
power for the first time in his career, but it didn't translate into success
at the big-league level.
Chad Allen, rf/lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 70 17 3 0 1 10 8 0 5 0 12 2 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 6
Prorated Min 51 12 2 0 1 7 6 0 4 0 9 1 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 5
Actual Min 50 15 3 0 0 2 7 1 3 0 14 0 2 .300 .345 .360 .705 6
Allen surprised me by winning a starting job in 1999 and then keeping
it for most of that season. But he was back in the minors to begin last
year and spent only three weeks in July on the big-league roster, serving
mostly as a fill-in while the club figured out what to do with Butch Huskey.
Huskey was traded away, but the Twins decided to go with Torii Hunter
instead, and Allen was sent back down for good on July 29th. He'll continue
to be in the outfield mix, but it's hard to see how he's going to earn
a lot of playing time with so many young players battling for three spots.
John Barnes, rf/cf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Min 37 13 4 0 0 5 2 2 2 0 6 0 1 .351 .415 .459 .874 6
Barnes has never shown more than moderate homerun power, but he batted
.365 at AAA last year and followed it up with a .351 average in eleven
games as a September callup. That'll be enough to earn him a good look
this spring.
Butch Huskey, dh/1b/rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 591 164 28 0 28 85 107 1 49 3 98 6 5 .277 .331 .467 .798 87
Prorated Min 223 62 11 0 11 32 40 0 19 1 37 2 2 .277 .331 .467 .798 33
Actual Min 215 48 13 0 5 22 27 2 25 1 49 0 2 .223 .306 .353 .660 23
Prorated Col 101 28 5 0 5 15 18 0 8 1 17 1 1 .277 .331 .467 .798 15
Actual Col 92 32 8 0 4 18 18 0 16 1 14 1 1 .348 .432 .565 .998 22
Prorated Tot 325 90 15 0 15 47 59 1 27 2 54 3 3 .277 .331 .467 .798 48
Actual Tot 307 80 21 0 9 40 45 2 41 2 63 1 3 .261 .346 .417 .762 44
Huskey disappointed at the plate and was dealt (with Todd Walker) to
Colorado in mid-July. His numbers were better there, but he'll have to
do better than this to retain a place on a big-league roster. He'll try
to do that in Cleveland this year.
David Ortiz, dh/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 388 101 23 1 16 59 68 4 52 3 89 1 1 .260 .350 .448 .799 62
Prorated Min 414 108 25 1 17 63 73 4 55 3 95 1 1 .260 .350 .448 .799 66
Actual Min 415 117 36 1 10 59 63 0 57 2 81 1 0 .282 .364 .446 .810 68
Ortiz is one of several young Twins hitters who added substantially to
their batting averages and doubles totals while seeing their homerun output
decline. In Ortiz's case, it was a wash in terms of his overall production
relative to our projections. In fact, this season was almost identical
to his half-season in 1998. The next spring, the team didn't like his
attitude, so Ortiz was kept in the minors for almost all of 1999. That
detour didn't seem to hurt or help his development.
Key Pitchers
Minnesota's pitching staff allowed 35 more runs than in 1999, dropping
from 5th to 10th in the league in runs allowed, despite staying pretty
healthy. There was no single reason for the decline. Brad Radke and Eric
Milton weren't quite as good as they had been a year before. Joe Mays
was unable to match his surprising 1999 performance. Sean Bergman couldn't
get anybody out. They chose to carry a Rule 5 draftee (Johan Santana)
for the year. And the bullpen suffered a little when Mike Trombley left
for Baltimore.
Despite the presense of Radke and Milton at the head of the rotation,
the starters were the problem, as Minnesota finished last in the league
with a 5.58 ERA from its starting pitchers. The bullpen was much better
than that, ranking 7th in the AL in relief ERA and seeing Latroy Hawkins
(14-for-14 in save opportunities) emerge as a potential closer for the
future.
Brad Radke, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.36 32 32 10 12 0 198 214 23 44 122 .277 .746
Prorated Min 4.36 38 38 12 14 0 233 252 27 52 143 .277 .746
Actual Min 4.45 34 34 12 16 0 227 261 27 51 141 .286 .785
That's an awful lot of hits, and 94 of them went for extra bases. The
trend is in the wrong direction, too. Radke's ratio of hits to innings
has worsened over the past three years and eroded further in the second
half of last season. On the plus side, he has logged an average of 216
innings over the past five seasons and his control continues to be a major
asset.
He was rewarded last July with a 4-year contract extension worth $36
million, but there's no guarantee that he'll be with the Twins for the
duration. The contract includes an option to demand a trade after the
2001 season, an option that may be exercised if Brad doesn't see the Twins
becoming competitive in the not-too-distant future.
Eric Milton, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.21 32 32 11 11 0 194 193 26 66 140 .258 .741
Prorated Min 4.21 33 33 11 11 0 198 197 27 67 143 .258 .741
Actual Min 4.86 33 33 13 10 0 200 205 35 44 160 .260 .758
Milton ran hot and cold last year, at times showing why he was the key
player in the Chuck Knoblauch trade a few years ago, and at times seeing
his pitches blasted all over the park. His control was much better, but
hitters turned a bunch of his extra strikes into doubles and homers. All
in all, however, it was another good season for the young hurler, and
he continued to solidify his place as one of the top lefty pitchers in
the league. As a result, Minnesota inked Milton to a 4-year $21 million
deal a week ago.
Joe Mays, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.59 32 32 8 11 0 194 203 26 72 126 .272 .773
Prorated Min 4.59 28 28 7 10 0 169 176 23 63 109 .272 .773
Actual Min 5.56 31 28 7 15 0 160 193 20 67 102 .299 .825
Mays surprised the heck out of me with a strong rookie season in 1999.
He entered that season having tossed only 57 innings above AA ball, and
he had consistently allowed more hits than innings from A ball on up.
So I wasn't surprised to see him slip back a bit in his sophomore season.
He reached bottom in August, when he was dropped from the rotation and
sent down to AAA for a month. He pitched very well in three starts with
Salt Lake (2 walks, 18 strikeouts, 1.72 ERA) and returned to finish the
season with three improved starts with the Twins (no walks, 11 Ks, 2.79
ERA).
In the minors, his career K:BB ratio was almost 3:1 and he never allowed
a lot of homeruns. He hasn't been able to match those levels when facing
big-league hitters, but walks and homers haven't hurt him either.
Sean Bergman, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.72 32 32 7 15 0 187 237 23 58 88 .312 .836
Prorated Min 5.72 13 13 3 6 0 76 96 9 23 36 .312 .836
Actual Min 9.66 15 14 4 5 0 68 111 18 33 35 .374 1.065
Bergman has been very inconsistent in his eight seasons, and this was
definitely not one of the high points. The Twins had seen enough by mid-June,
and Bergman spent the rest of the year with AAA Calgary in the Marlins
organization. He wasn't much better there -- 5.73 ERA, 107 hits in 82
innings. He'll be with Tampa Bay this spring, but he's running out of
chances.
Johan Santana, reliever/starter, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.14 27 27 7 11 0 148 196 26 72 144 .321 .918
Prorated Min 6.14 15 15 4 6 0 84 111 15 41 82 .321 .918
Actual Min 6.49 30 5 2 3 0 86 102 11 54 64 .302 .883
With his ERA approaching double digits, Santana was yanked from the rotation
after three April starts. For the next five months, he was used as a mopup
pitcher, never once being trusted to protect a lead, and usually coming
in with his team down by six runs or more. His last two starts came at
the end of September.
Santana was taken by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft in December, 1999,
and traded to the Twins almost immediately. As a Rule 5 draftee, Santana
had to be kept on the roster all season or be allowed to return to Houston,
his original team. Now that he has fulfilled that obligation, the Twins
can send him down for more seasoning, and I won't be surprised to see
them do that.
Mark Redman, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.10 30 0 2 4 0 59 70 9 29 44 .298 .858
Prorated Min 6.10 5 10 0 142 169 22 70 106 .298 .858
Actual Min 4.76 32 24 12 9 0 151 168 22 45 117 .281 .787
Redman didn't exactly come to Minnesota with a strong resume. In 70 AAA
starts from 1997-1999, Redman compiled a 23-31 record and an ERA in the
mid-fives. So, naturally, he did what Joe Mays had done a year before
-- posted better numbers in the majors than he had in the minors. The
secret of his success was improved control; he peaked at 4.5 walks per
game three years ago and has been getting better ever since. And he's
been able to do that without serving up a lot of meatballs.
J.C. Romero, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.43 53 0 3 5 0 68 76 9 46 56 .287 .852
Prorated Min 5.43 45 0 3 4 0 57 64 8 39 47 .287 .852
Actual Min 7.02 12 11 2 7 0 58 72 8 30 50 .312 .853
Romero began the season on the disabled list with a strained deltoid
muscle and was sent down to AAA when he was ready to start pitching again
in May. He pitched pretty well there, but didn't accomplish much after
he was recalled and placed into the rotation for the last two months.
Until last year, he was used almost exclusively as a reliever, so he
may still be adjusting to being in the rotation. Then again, he was successful
as a reliever, and that might be a better role for him. He's a southpaw
who did reasonably well against lefties and was hit very hard by right-handers.
If that continues, he may be tried as a lefty specialist out of the pen.
Mike Lincoln, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.98 4 4 1 2 0 19 25 3 7 9 .316 .887
Prorated Min 6.98 5 5 1 2 0 24 31 4 9 11 .316 .887
Actual Min 10.89 8 4 0 3 0 21 36 10 13 15 .383 1.223
Although he was pretty good in 12 starts for Salt Lake last year, Lincoln
hasn't really had any sustained success above AA ball. He was hit quite
hard in 1999, his rookie season, and was even worse last year in a brief
mid-season stint. In August, his season was ended by surgery to remove
bone spurs from his elbow. He had the same procedure a year before, but
the elbow was hurting again last year, and Lincoln tried unsuccessfully
to pitch with the pain. He's a free agent without a team at the moment.
Matt Kinney, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Min 5.10 8 8 2 2 0 42 41 7 25 24 .261 .826
The hard-throwing Kinney was drafted by the Red Sox and traded to the
Twins a couple of years ago. He has moved steadily up the minor-league
ladder, and with the exception of one injury-hampered season (1999) that
was cut short by surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, he has succeeded
at every step. He made his big-league debut last August, and five of his
eight outings were quality starts. He could start the 2001 season in the
Twins rotation.
Hector Carrasco, reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 3.86 70 0 5 5 3 96 100 8 43 70 .272 .736
Prorated Min 3.86 54 0 4 4 2 74 77 6 33 54 .272 .736
Actual Min 4.25 61 0 4 3 1 72 75 6 33 57 .271 .744
Prorated Bos 3.86 7 0 0 0 0 9 10 1 4 7 .272 .736
Actual Bos 9.45 8 1 1 1 0 7 15 2 5 7 .469 1.271
Prorated Tot 3.86 61 0 4 4 3 83 87 7 37 61 .272 .736
Actual Tot 4.69 69 1 5 4 1 79 90 8 38 64 .291 .799
A year after having surgery to remove blood clots in his arm, Carrasco
carried a full load in the Minnesota bullpen and acquitted himself quite
well. But he allowed 45% of his inherited runners to score -- the league
average was 35% -- and the Twins dealt him to the Red Sox in September
for minor-league speed demon Lew Ford, who stole 52 bases in 56 tries
and scored 122 runs while posting a .390 OBP for single-A Augusta last
year. The Sox were desperate for bullpen help because of a brutal September
schedule, but they didn't get much out of this deal, as Carrasco didn't
pitch well and is now in camp with the Blue Jays.
Travis Miller, reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.56 70 0 3 4 1 71 81 7 32 56 .291 .796
Prorated Min 4.56 70 0 3 4 1 71 81 7 32 56 .291 .796
Actual Min 3.90 67 0 2 3 1 67 83 4 32 62 .297 .788
The left-handed Miller had posted a misleading 2.72 ERA in 1999 -- he
pitched well, but not that well -- so it wasn't a big surprise when he
couldn't match that performance last year. Miller was quite effective
against lefties (.248, only one homer in 105 atbats) but righties touched
him for a .328 average and he blew three of four save opportunities. Still,
he was one of the reasons why the Twins bullpen was in the top half of
the league in relief ERA.
Jason Ryan, reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 6.45 4 4 1 2 0 22 28 5 10 14 .308 .928
Prorated Min 6.45 5 5 1 2 0 27 34 6 12 17 .308 .928
Actual Min 7.62 16 1 0 1 0 26 37 8 10 19 .330 1.018
Ryan, who was used exclusively as a starter in the minors, has moved
slowly through the minors, usually needing at least two years at each
level before taking the next step. He's been moderately successful at
times, but hasn't really shown the potential to be a good pitcher at the
highest level. The Twins tried him in relief during the middle part of
the season, but he wasn't ready. He'll be in camp with the Pirates this
year.
Eddie Guardado, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.09 70 0 4 4 27 73 69 11 30 69 .249 .778
Prorated Min 4.09 58 0 3 3 22 60 57 9 25 57 .249 .778
Actual Min 3.94 70 0 7 4 9 62 55 14 25 52 .238 .772
Steady Eddie. Always ready Eddie. For six years, the left-handed Guardado
has been a workhorse in the Minnesota pen, always doing a good job of
keeping runners off base, but occasionally (as he did last year) giving
up too many homeruns. Oddly, he was much more effective against right-handed
batters last year, reversing his normal pattern.
Last March, it appeared that Guardado might become the new closer (replacing
Mike Trombley, who had moved on to Baltimore), but that job eventually
went to Hawkins even though Guardado saved nine games in eleven tries
when given the chance.
Bob Wells, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 4.28 53 0 3 4 0 74 76 10 24 41 .267 .768
Prorated Min 4.28 59 0 3 4 0 81 84 11 26 45 .267 .768
Actual Min 3.65 76 0 0 7 10 86 80 14 15 76 .247 .726
Statistically speaking, this seven-year veteran came up with his best
season to date, showing terrific control, raising his strikeout rate to
a career-high 7.9 per nine innings, and allowing only 29% of his inherited
runners to score. He was more effective as a setup man (11 holds) than
as a closer (10 blown saves in 20 chances), so he seems likely to be used
in middle relief in the future. His 0-7 record reflects bad luck more
than anything; he had many good outings where a little run support would
have earned him a few wins.
LaTroy Hawkins, reliever/closer, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Min 5.99 44 4 3 6 0 77 96 11 26 44 .309 .842
Prorated Min 5.99 47 4 3 6 0 82 103 12 28 47 .309 .842
Actual Min 3.39 66 0 2 5 14 88 85 7 32 59 .256 .687
Hawkins may have finally found his niche. After struggling as a starter
for several years, this highly-touted prospect was moved to the pen for
the first time in 2000. He began the year in middle relief, and it took
him about a month to settle into his new role before he began stringing
bunches of good outings together. He really hit his stride in the second
half, posting a 2.43 ERA and working his way into the closer role. On
the year, he allowed only 18% of his inherited runners to score and was
a perfect 14-for-14 in save chances.
Outlook
For the first time in a while, I think there is reason for some optimism
among Twins fans, even though they'll put almost exactly the same players
on the field this year. They have the makings of a young team that could
improve steadily for several years to come. I don't think they have enough
talent to make a great leap forward like the White Sox did last year,
but they could gradually build toward a competitive team over the next
three to five years if they play their cards right and are willing to
spend some money in key places.
In the past twelve months, the front office surprised a lot of people
by signing Brad Radke (everyone assumed he'd be traded) and Eric Milton
to long-term deals. With these moves, the Twins have a solid foundation
around which to build a good starting rotation. The bullpen was good last
year, and it could get even better if LaTroy Hawkins builds on his success
from last year and becomes a legitimate bullpen ace.
Offensively, the team has a long way to go, especially in the power department.
But all of their key position players are in their prime or will be entering
their prime in the next few years. It's not at all unreasonable to expect
to see steady gains in scoring from this unit.
The Twins were outscored by 132 runs last year. It's not out of the question
that they could cut that deficit in half in 2001, then become a .500 team
in 2002, and continue to build into at least a contender for the wildcard.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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