2000 Post-Season Review -- New York Yankees
By Tom Tippett
February 23, 2001
This article takes a look at how the New York Yankees performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 966 871
Runs allowed 790 814
Run Margin +176 +57
Wins 98 87
Pythagorean wins 97 86
Placement 1st 1st
Conventional wisdom says that anything can happen in a short series and
that teams can't just cruise through the regular season and turn it on
when it matters. Conventional wisdom has taken a beating from this Yankees
dynasty.
If there had been no post-season last year, Yankees fans would have rightly
considered the 2000 campaign to be a disaster. Two short years after winning
114 games, their beloved men in pinstripes stumbled through the first
half of the season (38-36 through June) and collapsed in the final week,
losing their last seven games in a row. The last time a first-place team
lost seven in a row to end a season was in 1987, when the Blue Jays coughed
up a 3-1/2 game lead and lost the AL East to the Tigers. But this Yankees
team was able to hang on to the division title and qualify for the post-season
despite having only the fifth-best record in the American League.
But things were different in October. New York edged a stubborn Oakland
team three games to two in the division series, defeated Seattle in six
to take the AL pennant, and knocked off their crosstown rivals, the Mets,
four games to one in the World/Subway Series. By winning their fourth
world championship in five years, this team erased the memories of the
regular season that had ended only a month earlier.
Looking back over the past five seasons, the claim that anything can
happen in a short series seems to apply to everyone but the Yankees. In
that span, New York has emerged victorious in 12 of 13 series, losing
only to the Indians in 1997. They swept four of their opponents and lost
only one game in four other series. Only two times, when they lost to
Cleveland and in last year's divisional series against Oakland, have they
been pushed to a deciding game.
The Yankees' post-season record since 1996 is 46-15, good for a winning
percentage of .754. That's more than a hundred points better than their
regular-season winning percentage, and they've done it against the best
teams in the game. This team has been able to turn it on when it
matters most.
Key Position Players
Even though Jorge Posada had a big year in his first season as the everyday
catcher, Derek Jeter continued to excel, and the club received badly-needed
boosts from two key mid-season pickups (David Justice and Glenallen Hill),
the Yankees saw their scoring output decline by 29 runs and their league
ranking drop from 3rd in 1999 to 6th last year. It was the second significant
decline in a row for this aging lineup and represented their lowest run
total since 1996.
Other than Posada, Jeter and the newcomers, just about everyone else
in the lineup fell short of expectations. Compared to our pre-season projections
(pro-rated for playing time), Tino Martinez created 19 fewer runs, Chuck
Knoblauch was down by 14, Scott Brosius by 16, Bernie Williams by 7, and
Paul O'Neill by 18. And the bench that had been so deep and productive
in recent years didn't contribute nearly as much.
Jorge Posada, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 440 115 24 2 17 66 71 2 60 4 99 0 0 .261 .350 .441 .791 69
Prorated NYA 544 142 30 2 21 82 88 2 74 5 122 0 0 .261 .350 .441 .791 85
Actual NYA 505 145 35 1 28 92 86 8 107 10 151 2 2 .287 .417 .527 .943 117
This is what Yankees management was looking for when they chose to let
Joe Girardi leave via free agency after the 1999 seasons. Girardi was
a highly-regarded defensive catcher with a mediocre bat, and Posada had
the potential to be much more productive at the plate. Over the years,
there have been a few murmurs of discontent from Yankee pitchers about
Posada's defensive skills, but Posada handled the staff pretty well last
year. And I'm sure his offense was appreciated by those same pitchers,
many of whom struggled with insufficient run support for the first half
of the season.
Chris Turner, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 66 17 3 0 1 9 6 1 8 0 13 1 1 .258 .347 .348 .695 8
Prorated NYA 90 23 4 0 1 12 8 1 11 0 18 1 1 .258 .347 .348 .695 11
Actual NYA 89 21 3 0 1 9 7 1 10 0 21 0 1 .236 .320 .303 .623 9
This journeyman backup was with his fourth team in as many seasons, and
he'll try to make it five in five with Philadelphia this year. His entire
career consists of 379 atbats spread across eight seasons in which he
has hit .237 with four homers. Neither his bat or his defense has been
good enough to earn him a starting job, and that's not likely to change.
Tino Martinez, 1b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 546 152 27 1 29 92 111 4 65 6 78 2 1 .278 .356 .491 .847 95
Prorated NYA 556 155 27 1 30 94 113 4 66 6 79 2 1 .278 .356 .491 .847 97
Actual NYA 569 147 37 4 16 69 91 8 52 9 74 4 1 .258 .328 .422 .749 78
After stroking 100 homers in his three previous seasons, Martinez saw
his homerun rate drop by about half last year. Although most of those
missing dingers still turned up in the boxscore as doubles and triples,
there's no disguising the fact that this was well below Tino's normal
level and well below the average of his peers at first base. Martinez
remains a good defensive player, but Yankee fans and the Yankee front
office won't show a lot of patience if his bat doesn't come back to life.
Chuck Knoblauch, 2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 586 171 30 5 17 114 65 17 82 1 64 30 9 .292 .391 .447 .838 111
Prorated NYA 387 113 20 3 11 75 43 11 54 1 42 20 6 .292 .391 .447 .838 74
Actual NYA 400 113 22 2 5 75 26 8 46 0 45 15 7 .283 .366 .385 .751 60
A serious case of Steve Sax disease (the inability to make routine throws
to first) cost Knoblauch his everyday spot at the top of the batting order.
He's been a remarkably durable player, playing in 94% of his team's games
since his rookie season in 1991, and this was the first time in his career
(except the shortened season of 1994) that he failed to amass over 600
plate appearances. Knoblauch also saw his offensive contributions slide
significantly, and it remains to be seen whether he can recover.
Luis Sojo, 2b/3b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 84 21 3 0 1 11 10 0 4 0 9 1 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 8
Prorated Pit 178 45 6 0 2 23 21 0 8 0 19 2 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 16
Actual Pit 176 50 11 0 5 14 20 1 11 3 16 1 0 .284 .328 .432 .760 24
Prorated NYA 126 32 5 0 2 17 15 0 6 0 14 2 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 11
Actual NYA 125 36 7 1 2 19 17 0 6 0 6 1 0 .288 .321 .408 .729 15
Prorated Tot 305 76 11 0 4 40 36 0 15 0 33 4 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 27
Actual Tot 301 86 18 1 7 33 37 1 17 3 22 2 0 .286 .325 .422 .747 39
When Knoblauch's defensive troubles continued through the summer, New
York re-acquired Sojo from Pittsburgh in early August. His ability to
settle things down in the field (only one error) was a key factor in the
Yankees ability to hold onto the division lead down the stretch and have
success in the post-season. Sojo has been a member of all four of the
Yankees championship teams in this run.
Jose Vizcaino, 2b/3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection LA 108 28 4 0 1 13 11 0 10 0 14 1 1 .259 .319 .324 .643 11
Prorated LA 94 24 3 0 1 11 10 0 9 0 12 1 1 .259 .319 .324 .643 10
Actual LA 93 19 2 1 0 9 4 1 10 3 15 1 0 .204 .288 .247 .536 7
Prorated NYA 169 44 6 0 2 20 17 0 16 0 22 2 2 .259 .319 .324 .643 18
Actual NYA 174 48 8 1 0 23 10 0 12 0 28 5 7 .276 .319 .333 .652 17
Prorated Tot 263 68 10 0 2 32 27 0 24 0 34 2 2 .259 .319 .324 .643 27
Actual Tot 267 67 10 2 0 32 14 1 22 3 43 6 7 .251 .308 .303 .612 24
Not being content to import just one player to provide insurance for
Knoblauch, baseball's richest team went out and got two of them. Unlike
Sojo, Vizcaino was not able to contribute much offensively, but he was
every bit as sure-handed (.990 fielding percentage) as Sojo was in the
field. Vizcaino will be in camp with Houston this year.
Scott Brosius, 3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 509 132 27 1 18 73 77 8 47 1 86 8 4 .259 .328 .422 .750 72
Prorated NYA 460 119 24 1 16 66 70 7 42 1 78 7 4 .259 .328 .422 .750 65
Actual NYA 470 108 20 0 16 57 64 2 45 1 73 0 3 .230 .299 .374 .673 49
Although Brosius remains one of the better defensive third basemen in
the game, his offensive contributions have not kept pace. From peaks of
.909 with Oakland in 1996 and .843 with the Yankees in 1998, his OPS totals
have dropped to .721 and .673 in the past two seasons. His defense is
very good, but it's not nearly good enough to make up for such an anemic
bat. Brosius was respectable against lefty pitchers last year, but terrible
against righties, so a platoon role might be in his future.
Alfonso Soriano, 3b/ss, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 70 16 4 0 2 9 11 0 4 0 13 2 2 .229 .267 .371 .638 6
Prorated NYA 49 11 3 0 1 6 8 0 3 0 9 1 1 .229 .267 .371 .638 4
Actual NYA 50 9 3 0 2 5 3 0 1 0 15 2 0 .180 .196 .360 .556 4
Soriano has been talked about as the next great Yankees prospect for
long enough that it's hard to remember that he's still very young. He's
been a shortstop in the minors, but that job won't be available for a
while, so the club will continue to look to him for help at second and
third. He wasn't ready for big-league pitching, but he did handle AAA
hurlers pretty well last year, batting .290 with a .464 slugging percentage.
Derek Jeter, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 567 190 29 8 19 117 85 9 73 2 101 19 6 .335 .417 .515 .932 126
Prorated NYA 588 197 30 8 20 121 88 9 76 2 105 20 6 .335 .417 .515 .932 131
Actual NYA 593 201 31 4 15 119 73 12 68 4 99 22 4 .339 .416 .481 .896 124
Jeter is a very good all-around hitter and was the catalyst for the Yankees
offense again last year. He's been consistent at the plate and in the
field. He's been durable, averaging 154 games in his five full seasons.
He's been a solid citizen and a leader. And with four rings in five seasons,
he's been a winner. And now he's a very wealthy man, having just inked
a ten-year contract for a total of $189 million.
I don't think we'll ever see him hit a lot of homeruns, but he doesn't
need to. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, and there's no reason
to believe he won't, he'll end his career as one of the all-time greats.
Bill James' career projection system gives Jeter a 33% chance at 3000
hits, a 5% chance at 4000, and a 1% chance to break Pete Rose's all-time
hits record. Jeter is the only active player to be given any chance to
catch Rose.
David Justice, lf/rf/dh, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 530 148 30 1 23 88 94 2 91 9 98 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 99
Prorated Cle 243 68 14 0 11 40 43 1 42 4 45 1 1 .279 .383 .470 .853 45
Actual Cle 249 66 14 1 21 46 58 0 38 2 49 1 1 .265 .361 .582 .943 52
Prorated NYA 268 75 15 1 12 44 48 1 46 5 50 2 2 .279 .383 .470 .853 50
Actual NYA 275 84 17 0 20 43 60 1 39 1 42 1 0 .305 .391 .585 .977 64
Prorated Tot 511 143 29 1 22 85 91 2 88 9 94 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 95
Actual Tot 524 150 31 1 41 89 118 1 77 3 91 2 1 .286 .377 .584 .961 116
Boy, did the Yankees ever need this. With half the lineup slumping and
rumors of a Sammy Sosa deal swirling through Yankee Stadium on a daily
basis, Brian Cashman surprised everyone by dealing for Justice a month
in advance of the trading deadline. And it didn't come a moment too soon.
Justice didn't do it all by himself, but the team increased its output
from five runs per game before the trade to a little over five-and-a-half
the rest of the way. Justice didn't quite have his best year ever, but
he came close, setting career highs in homers and total bases.
Roberto Kelly, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 511 149 26 2 19 77 74 7 34 0 97 6 4 .292 .342 .462 .804 80
Prorated NYA 25 7 1 0 1 4 4 0 2 0 5 0 0 .292 .342 .462 .804 4
Actual NYA 25 3 1 0 1 4 1 1 1 0 6 0 0 .120 .185 .280 .465 1
Last March, it looked as if Kelly would play quite a bit in left field
or at DH. But he was on the disabled list with a sprained elbow by the
end of April and then missed the rest of the season after undergoing surgery
on that elbow. He'll be with the Rockies this year.
Ricky Ledee, lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 397 105 21 4 15 70 57 1 46 4 108 8 4 .264 .339 .451 .790 62
Prorated NYA 195 51 10 2 7 34 28 0 23 2 53 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 31
Actual NYA 191 46 11 1 7 23 31 1 26 2 39 7 3 .241 .332 .419 .751 26
Prorated Cle 63 17 3 1 2 11 9 0 7 1 17 1 1 .264 .339 .451 .790 10
Actual Cle 63 14 2 1 2 13 8 0 8 0 9 0 0 .222 .310 .381 .691 7
Prorated Tex 212 56 11 2 8 37 30 1 25 2 58 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 33
Actual Tex 213 50 6 3 4 23 38 1 25 2 50 6 3 .235 .317 .347 .664 23
Prorated Tot 470 124 25 5 18 83 67 1 54 5 128 9 5 .264 .339 .451 .790 74
Actual Tot 467 110 19 5 13 59 77 2 59 4 98 13 6 .236 .322 .381 .703 56
Ledee was supposed to be at least part of the solution for the Yankees
in left field, and he was, but not in the way he had in mind. Instead
of fulfilling the expectations of Yankee supporters who had been touting
him as a great prospect for a few years, he was dealt to Cleveland for
Dave Justice midway through the season. Cleveland then packaged him off
to Texas in the deal that brought them David Segui. Ledee didn't really
hit at any of his three stops, and he'll now find himself battling for
playing time in a crowded Rangers outfield.
Shane Spencer, lf/rf/dh, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 224 60 13 0 12 37 37 2 24 0 44 0 0 .268 .343 .487 .829 38
Prorated NYA 246 66 14 0 13 41 41 2 26 0 48 0 0 .268 .343 .487 .829 42
Actual NYA 248 70 11 3 9 33 40 2 19 0 45 1 2 .282 .330 .460 .789 38
Until he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in July and underwent season-ending
surgery, Spencer was in the starting lineup in the outfield or at DH in
over 80% of New York's games. In that role, he produced at his established
level (which isn't quite good enough to be an asset at those positions)
and handled himself pretty well defensively.
Clay Bellinger, cf/2b/3b/ss/1b/rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 93 20 5 0 1 10 8 1 6 0 17 2 1 .215 .267 .301 .568 7
Prorated NYA 192 41 10 0 2 21 17 2 12 0 35 4 2 .215 .267 .301 .568 15
Actual NYA 184 38 8 2 6 33 21 5 17 1 48 5 0 .207 .288 .370 .658 22
A super-sub who started games at six different positions, Bellinger hit
like the utility infielder he's been most of his career. One clear difference
between this squad and the great 1998 team is that the 2000 edition got
contributions like this while the charmed 1998 team saw Homer Bush hit
.380 and Shane Spencer club 10 homers in 67 atbats.
Bernie Williams, cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 554 188 30 5 26 112 107 2 87 12 86 9 8 .339 .427 .552 .980 131
Prorated NYA 527 179 29 5 25 106 102 2 83 11 82 9 8 .339 .427 .552 .980 125
Actual NYA 537 165 37 6 30 108 121 5 71 11 84 13 5 .307 .391 .566 .957 118
Thanks to a series of nagging muscle pulls, this wasn't a vintage Bernie
Williams season, though he continued to produce at a very high rate. Williams
has batted over .300 for six straight seasons, averaging 105 runs and
103 RBI in that span. He's not as good defensively as some would have
you believe, but there's no question that he's one of the main reasons
why the Yankees have taken home the big prize in four of the last five
seasons.
Paul O'Neill, rf, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 589 177 38 2 22 83 111 2 63 2 92 10 4 .301 .365 .484 .849 101
Prorated NYA 558 168 36 2 21 79 105 2 60 2 87 9 4 .301 .365 .484 .849 96
Actual NYA 566 160 26 0 18 79 100 0 51 2 90 14 9 .283 .336 .424 .760 78
O'Neill's 100 RBI is a tribute to his teammates' ability to set the table.
He was below the league average in both on-base percentage and slugging,
and his performance with runners in scoring position was no different
from his overall averages. He's been in steady decline for three seasons
now, and the Yankees are going to need an upgrade at this position if
they want to stay on top.
Jose Canseco, dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 549 141 24 1 42 92 108 7 67 3 154 17 4 .257 .342 .534 .876 101
Prorated Tam 231 59 10 0 18 39 45 3 28 1 65 7 2 .257 .342 .534 .876 43
Actual Tam 218 56 15 0 9 31 30 4 41 1 65 2 0 .257 .383 .450 .832 40
Prorated NYA 120 31 5 0 9 20 24 2 15 1 34 4 1 .257 .342 .534 .876 22
Actual NYA 111 27 3 0 6 16 19 0 23 1 37 0 0 .243 .365 .432 .797 19
Prorated Tot 351 90 15 1 27 59 69 4 43 2 98 11 3 .257 .342 .534 .876 65
Actual Tot 329 83 18 0 15 47 49 4 64 2 102 2 0 .252 .377 .444 .820 60
Canseco is still one of the most dynamic hitters in the game . . . when
he's healthy. In 1998-99, he banged out 80 homers despite recurring back
problems that landed him on the surgeon's table in July, 1999. Last year,
he spent seven weeks on the disabled list with a heel injury, and judging
by the steep drop in his homerun rate, one has to wonder if he'll ever
hit for power the way he did prior to his back surgery. Baseball execs
must have their doubts, as the best Canseco was able to do in the free
agent market this winter was land an incentive-laden one-year contract
with Anaheim.
Glenallen Hill, dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection ChN 193 57 10 1 12 31 34 1 16 1 42 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 35
Prorated ChN 162 48 8 1 10 26 29 1 13 1 35 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 30
Actual ChN 168 44 4 1 11 23 29 0 10 2 43 0 1 .262 .303 .494 .797 23
Prorated NYA 130 38 7 1 8 21 23 1 11 1 28 1 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 24
Actual NYA 132 44 5 0 16 22 29 1 9 0 33 0 0 .333 .378 .735 1.112 37
Prorated Tot 292 86 15 2 18 47 51 2 24 2 64 3 2 .295 .349 .544 .893 53
Actual Tot 300 88 9 1 27 45 58 1 19 2 76 0 1 .293 .336 .600 .936 58
What is it about playing for the Yankees that causes these guys to hit
like crazy? Whatever it is, Hill was a huge help down the stretch after
coming over from the Cubs in late July. His defensive shortcomings have
prevented him from being an everyday player in the big leagues, but he's
averaged .302 and slugged .569 over the past three years.
Luis Polonia, dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Det 630 186 31 7 15 77 62 3 32 1 76 31 13 .295 .331 .438 .769 91
Prorated Det 281 83 14 3 7 34 28 1 14 0 34 14 6 .295 .331 .438 .769 41
Actual Det 267 73 10 5 6 37 25 1 22 1 25 8 5 .273 .325 .416 .741 37
Prorated NYA 80 24 4 1 2 10 8 0 4 0 10 4 2 .295 .331 .438 .769 12
Actual NYA 77 22 4 0 1 11 5 0 7 0 7 4 2 .286 .341 .377 .718 10
Prorated Tot 361 106 18 4 9 44 35 2 18 1 44 18 7 .295 .331 .438 .769 52
Actual Tot 344 95 14 5 7 48 30 1 29 1 32 12 7 .276 .329 .407 .736 47
Polonia is a career .293 hitter with below-average power and strike zone
judgment. But he had a big year (a half-year actually) in 1999, batting
.324 with 39 extra-base hits (ten homers) in 333 atbats, good for a .524
slugging percentage. He claimed that he had become a better hitter after
spending two seasons in the Mexican League, but that's debatable in light
of his performance last year, which reverted back to his career norms.
The Tigers released him at the end of July and the Yankees picked him
up a couple of days later. He is now a free agent.
Jim Leyritz, dh/c, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 305 79 15 1 11 41 44 7 45 2 71 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 49
Prorated NYA 53 14 3 0 2 7 8 1 8 0 12 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 8
Actual NYA 55 12 0 0 1 2 4 1 7 0 14 0 0 .218 .317 .273 .590 5
Prorated LA 57 15 3 0 2 8 8 1 8 0 13 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 9
Actual LA 60 12 1 0 1 3 8 1 7 0 12 0 0 .200 .294 .267 .561 5
Prorated Tot 110 29 5 0 4 15 16 3 16 1 26 0 0 .259 .363 .423 .786 18
Actual Tot 115 24 1 0 2 5 12 2 14 0 26 0 0 .209 .305 .270 .575 10
Last spring, it looked as if Leyritz would win a good chunk of the DH
job for the Yankees, but he played only sporadically and got off to a
terrible start. The Yankees dealt him to Los Angeles for Jose Vizcaino
in June. Leyritz didn't fare any better on the west coast and will try
again in New York, this time with the Mets, in 2001.
It appears as if Jim Leyritz will go down in baseball history as the
ultimate Mr. October, remembered mainly for his post-season heroics with
recent Yankees teams and with the 1998 Padres. During his eleven-year
career, he has only been a league-average hitter in the regular season,
and his defensive shortcomings have kept him out of the starting lineup
enough so that he's never reached 400 atbats in a season.
Key Pitchers
Historically, the Yankees are better known for their prolific hitters,
but the pitching staff has been the backbone of this dynasty. The staff
finished in the top three in fewest runs allowed each year from 1995-99
before slipping to fourth in 2000. Except for the sudden collapse of David
Cone, both the rotation and the bullpen continued to perform at a very
high level.
It's been a while since the Yankees have had a truly dominant starting
pitcher to head the rotation, but few teams can send a trio of 200-inning
workhorses like Roger Clemens, Orlando Hernandez, and Andy Pettitte to
the mound. And those starters are backed up by a bullpen that almost always
protects any leads they are handed. Mariano Rivera remains one of the
best (perhaps the best) closers in the game, and he's gotten plenty
of support from setup men Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton. Add swing man
Ramiro Mendoza, who can fill in effectively as a spot starter and long
reliever, and you have a terrific nucleus.
Even so, the Yankees allowed 83 more runs last year than they had the
year before. Cone is responsible for about 2/3 of that increase all by
himself. Clemens, Pettitte and Nelson were a little better than expected,
while Hernandez wasn't quite as good, but they didn't get as much help
from the supporting cast as they have in recent years. Denny Neagle didn't
pitch well down the stretch, and the pitchers who were called on to fill
out the staff and fill in for injured regulars -- guys like Craig Dingman,
Jay Tessmer, Ben Ford, Allen Watson, Randy Keisler, Jake Westbrook, and
Ed Yarnall -- were hit very hard.
Roger Clemens, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 3.71 32 32 15 9 0 211 195 18 87 205 .247 .699
Prorated NYA 3.71 31 31 15 9 0 207 191 18 85 201 .247 .699
Actual NYA 3.70 32 32 13 8 0 204 184 26 84 188 .236 .701
In his second year with the Yankees, Clemens bounced back from a spotty
1999 campaign to finish second (behind Pedro Martinez, of course) in the
league in ERA. With the club sitting on a mediocre 38-36 record through
the first three months, Roger led the team back into its customary spot
on top of the division, compiling a 7-0 record and a 2.57 in July and
August. In an era when five-man rotations and work stoppages are making
it much more difficult to reach 300 wins, this future Hall-of-Famer is
now within shouting distance with a career 260-142 mark.
Orlando Hernandez, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.02 32 32 15 9 0 208 194 24 86 167 .247 .728
Prorated NYA 4.02 29 29 14 8 0 191 178 22 79 153 .247 .728
Actual NYA 4.51 29 29 12 13 0 196 186 34 51 141 .247 .739
El Duque threw more strikes last year, cutting his walk rate by a third,
but hitters deposited a bunch of those strikes into the bleachers. As
a result, his ERA rose for the second year in a row. He wasn't quite as
brilliant in the post-season as he'd been the last two years, either,
but the results were still there -- three wins and one hold, running his
post-season record to 8-1.
David Cone, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.08 32 32 14 8 0 192 180 22 83 181 .248 .730
Prorated NYA 4.08 28 28 12 7 0 169 159 19 73 159 .248 .730
Actual NYA 6.91 30 29 4 14 0 155 192 25 82 120 .306 .891
Few teams have the luxury running someone out to the mound every five
or six days when he's having a season like this. But if anyone deserves
a few extra chances to turn things around, Cone is certainly one of them.
He entered his 15th season with a career ERA of 3.19 that was only a couple
of points outside the top 100 of all time, a remarkable feat in a high-offense
era.
Cone recently attributed his difficulties to a decision to rest his arm
during the 1999-2000 off-season. He's been throwing a lot this time around
and will try to regain his prior form with the Red Sox, with whom he signed
an incentive-laden contract for 2001.
Andy Pettitte, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.76 32 32 12 12 0 204 226 19 87 132 .285 .776
Prorated NYA 4.76 32 32 12 12 0 206 228 19 88 133 .285 .776
Actual NYA 4.35 32 32 19 9 0 205 219 17 80 125 .271 .740
This is Pettitte's third-straight season with an ERA in the fours, so
it's been a while since he could be considered one of the great young
pitchers in the game. And his 19-9 record is mostly due to an offense
that provided him with over seven and a half runs per start. Still, there
aren't many pitchers in baseball who have averaged over 200 innings for
the past six seasons, and he's a valuable member of the league's best
rotation.
Ramiro Mendoza, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.53 27 27 9 9 0 179 200 19 39 100 .286 .760
Prorated NYA 4.53 10 10 3 3 0 67 74 7 14 37 .286 .760
Actual NYA 4.25 14 9 7 4 0 66 66 9 20 30 .260 .743
Mendoza hasn't gotten as much press as some of his more famous teammates,
but he's been a big part of the Yankees success in recent years. Sometimes
used as a spot starter, sometimes as a middle reliever, Mendoza gave the
team about 130 good innings in each of the three previous seasons. He
was on pace to do that again when his right shoulder began to ache in
June. Two months of rest didn't help, so he underwent surgery in September.
He's shooting to be ready for opening day, but it's too soon to tell whether
that will happen.
Denny Neagle, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.65 32 32 14 8 0 202 178 27 59 144 .236 .703
Prorated Cin 3.65 19 19 9 5 0 123 108 16 36 88 .236 .703
Actual Cin 3.52 18 18 8 2 0 118 111 15 50 88 .247 .728
Prorated NYA 3.65 15 15 7 4 0 97 86 13 28 69 .236 .703
Actual NYA 5.81 16 15 7 7 0 91 99 16 31 58 .278 .810
Prorated Tot 3.65 35 35 15 9 0 220 194 29 64 157 .236 .703
Actual Tot 4.52 34 33 15 9 0 209 210 31 81 146 .261 .764
Neagle was terrific in his first two starts after being acquired by the
Yankees, but the honeymoon ended abruptly when he was shelled regularly
after that. He wasn't used against Oakland in the divisional series, lost
twice to Seattle in the LCS, and made one mediocre start in the World
Series against the Mets.
In one of the more puzzling off-season moves, Colorado signed Neagle
to a five-year, $51.5 million contract. He seems like a bad fit for that
park, and he's the fourth lefty in the Rockies projected starting rotation.
Dwight Gooden, starter / long reliever, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.71 5 5 2 2 0 29 31 4 14 21 .277 .820
Prorated Hou 4.71 1 1 0 0 0 4 5 1 2 3 .277 .820
Actual Hou 9.00 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 1 3 1 .353 1.156
Prorated Tam 4.71 7 7 3 3 0 38 41 5 19 28 .277 .820
Actual Tam 6.63 8 8 2 3 0 37 47 14 20 23 .315 1.045
Prorated NYA 4.71 11 11 4 4 0 60 65 8 30 44 .277 .820
Actual NYA 3.36 18 5 4 2 2 64 66 8 21 31 .266 .752
Prorated Tot 4.71 18 18 7 7 0 103 111 14 50 75 .277 .820
Actual Tot 4.71 27 14 6 5 2 105 119 23 44 55 .287 .875
I have to admit that I chuckled to myself when I heard that Gooden had
been signed by the Yankees after both Houston and Tampa Bay had given
up on him. It sure seemed a waste of time to me. After all, Gooden's ERA
was over six in 1999 and he'd bombed out with two teams that were not
exactly loaded with pitching talent. But with New York, Gooden rediscovered
some of the talent that had put him on the road to Cooperstown in his
first nine seasons. (Seems like a long time ago now, doesn't it?) The
Yankees signed him to a minor-league deal for 2001.
Randy Choate, mopup man, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual NYA 4.76 22 0 0 1 0 17 14 3 8 12 .215 .753
This lefty was still in A ball at the end of the 1999 season, so he must
have been as surprised as I was to see him make the leap to AAA and then
to the big leagues in one season. Choate's overall results were quite
respectable, but he was especially effective against lefties, holding
them to a .184 average. He wasn't used in too many crucial situations,
however, as only four of his 22 appearances came with the teams separated
by two runs or less. He entered twelve game with one team or the other
ahead by five runs or more.
Todd Erdos, reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 6.14 23 0 2 3 0 44 56 8 22 35 .311 .905
Prorated NYA 6.14 13 0 1 2 0 24 31 4 12 19 .311 .905
Actual NYA 5.04 14 0 0 0 1 25 31 2 11 18 .304 .818
Prorated SD 6.14 16 0 1 2 0 31 39 6 16 25 .311 .905
Actual SD 6.67 22 0 0 0 1 30 32 5 17 16 .271 .803
Prorated Tot 6.14 29 0 3 4 0 55 70 10 28 44 .311 .905
Actual Tot 5.93 36 0 0 0 2 55 63 7 28 34 .286 .810
Erdos hasn't shown much in his brief career, compiling a 5.70 ERA in
77 innings spanning four seasons of bullpen work. The Yankees put him
on waivers when they were ready to activate Gooden, and he was claimed
by the Padres, the team with which he made his debut in 1997. He didn't
fare any better in San Diego, so his hold on a big-league job is quite
tenuous. He's in camp with the Red Sox this spring.
Jason Grimsley, reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.76 53 0 4 4 0 70 74 10 41 46 .275 .830
Prorated NYA 4.76 71 0 5 5 0 94 100 13 55 62 .275 .830
Actual NYA 5.04 63 4 3 2 1 96 100 10 42 53 .268 .761
Coming off his best season, when he posted a 3.60 ERA in 75 innings of
long relief work with the Yankees in 1999, Grimsley was expected to be
a significant contributor again in 2000. But he slipped back toward the
level he'd established prior to his arrival in New York, and he'll be
plying his trade in Kansas City this year.
Jeff Nelson, setup man, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.09 70 0 4 3 2 70 68 6 38 69 .257 .764
Prorated NYA 4.09 66 0 4 3 2 66 64 6 36 65 .257 .764
Actual NYA 2.45 73 0 8 4 0 70 44 2 45 71 .183 .567
It was a very good year for Nelson. He battled back problems in 1998
and bone spurs in his elbow in 1999, and those injuries limited him to
a total of 71 innings over those two seasons. With the return of his health,
Nelson become a top setup man once again, notching 15 holds and allowing
only 24% of his inherited runners to score (the league average was 35%).
He was rewarded with a 3-year $11 million contract in December, but not
with the Yankees. He's now back in Seattle, where he started his career.
Mike Stanton, reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 4.48 70 0 4 3 1 72 78 9 25 65 .277 .775
Prorated NYA 4.48 65 0 4 3 1 67 72 8 23 60 .277 .775
Actual NYA 4.10 69 0 2 3 0 68 68 5 24 75 .263 .700
Stanton has been New York's top lefty reliever for four seasons. Strangely,
he was pummeled by left-handed batters last year (.339 average, .508 slugging)
and was almost untouchable against righties, holding them to a .199 average
and allowing only two homers to right-handed batters in 141 atbats. This
was probably just a fluke, since he's been equally effective againts lefties
and righties over the past five years. A late-season slump (15 earned
runs in 18 innings over the last two months) would be a cause for concern
were it not for the fact that Stanton pitched very well in the post-season,
including 4-1/3 perfect innings in the World Series.
Allen Watson, reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 5.67 57 4 4 6 0 94 109 15 40 67 .292 .848
Prorated NYA 5.67 16 1 1 2 0 26 30 4 11 18 .292 .848
Actual NYA 10.23 17 0 0 0 0 22 30 6 18 20 .330 1.025
It was pretty much a lost year for Watson. His throwing shoulder was
bothering him in spring training. Then he strained a back muscle in a
game in April and went on the disabled list for a month. A month after
his return, he dislocated his right shoulder and landed right back on
the DL for another five weeks. And a week after rejoining the team for
the second time, his season was ended by surgery on his pitching shoulder.
He may not be ready for opening day.
Mariano Rivera, closer, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 2.13 70 0 6 4 45 80 60 4 22 56 .209 .565
Prorated NYA 2.13 69 0 6 4 44 79 59 4 22 55 .209 .565
Actual NYA 2.85 66 0 7 4 36 76 58 4 25 58 .208 .565
In his first three seasons, Rivera was a power pitcher, striking out
249 batters in 246 innings. In his last three seasons, he's focused more
on keeping hitters off balance. The most remarkable aspect of his game
is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Rivera has given up only
15 homers in his last five seasons. An average pitcher would have
allowed about three times that many in the 385 innings Rivera has thrown
in that span. He's as close to a sure thing as there is among closers
these days.
Outlook
This team is past its peak, so the question is whether they can retool
without falling out of the post-season picture for a while. Their one
big off-season move was signing Mike Mussina, and that makes the starting
rotation a whole lot better. They will have David Justice and Glenallen
Hill from the start. And among the guys who had good years for the Yankees
last year, the only one who won't be back is Jeff Nelson. They should
be better than an 87-win team this year, and they'll need to be to make
the post-season again.
There are still lots of questions. Can Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez and
Scott Brosius bounce back? Can Chuck Knoblauch overcome his defensive
problems and regain a spot in the everyday lineup? How much longer can
Roger Clemens keep this up? With the loss of Nelson, will the bullpen
be deep enough? Are any of the youngsters like Soriano, D'Angelo Jimenez,
and Nick Johnson ready to step in?
My guess is that the staff will lead the league in pitching this year.
A Clemens-Mussina-Hernandez-Pettitte rotation will be hard to beat, and
that will keep the team in an awful lot of games even if the offense stumbles
from time to time. And you can count on them to go out and find players
during the season, regardless of the cost, if things don't go right. Until
somebody actually beats these guys, they have to be considered the favorites.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
|
