2000 Post-Season Review -- New York Mets
By Zack Scott
February 21, 2001
This article takes a look at how the New York Mets performed in the 2000
season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach
used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our
publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 777 807
Runs allowed 724 738
Run Margin 53 69
Wins 86 94
Pythagorean wins 87 88
Placement 2nd 2nd
In 1999, the Mets won 97 games thanks to a good offense, an amazingly
steady defense, decent starting pitching, and a deep bullpen. Although
they came up short in their bid for an improbable comeback against the
Braves in the NLCS that season, they entered 2000 optimistic for a shot
at the Series. We weren't so optimistic, however. New York had lost two
key players (John Olerud, Roger Cedeno) and went into the season with
a very uncertain outfield. Our pre-season simulations suggested that they
would outscore their opponents by only 53 runs, and that's barely enough
for wildcard contention, let alone a serious run at the World Series.
But Bobby Valentine made some smart decisions -- playing Benny Agbayani
over Rickey Henderson and sticking with Jay Payton over Darryl Hamilton
-- and the team won eight more games than expected, even though their
actual run margin was only 16 runs bettter than projected. A surplus of
69 runs typically produces only 88 victories, but the Mets were six games
better.
Perhaps their 29-20 record in one-run games indicates they were lucky,
but give Valentine credit, too. In his ten full seasons as manager of
Texas and New York, Valentine's teams have won 18 more games than expected
based on their run margin. Only once in ten full seasons has a Bobby V.
team won fewer games than the Pythagorean Method suggests. And in the
two instances that he took over a team in mid-season (Texas in 1985 and
New York in 1996), they won 25 and 17 more games, respectively, the next
year. I admit that I can't stand the excessive game shots of him mugging
for the camera, but you can't argue with his results.
In 2000, Valentine and the Mets essentially won the wild card in August,
winning 20 of 29 games against teams with a collective winning percentage
of .556. In the NLDS and NLCS, their good fortune continued in one-run
games (3-1), and they were 3-1 on the road, despite being the only playoff
team in baseball with a losing road record during the regular season (39-42).
But their luck ran out in the Subway Series, as the Yankees outscored
the Mets by only three runs but won the series in five games.
Key Position Players
After their playoff run in 1999, the league's then fifth-best offense
figured to take a hit in the off-season. The Mets lost Roger Cedeno's
ability to get on and steal bases and John Olerud's great on-base ability.
They also couldn't expect Henderson to hit .315 or Robin Ventura to duplicate
his career year.
While the 2000 lineup was definitely worse, scoring 46 fewer runs than
its predecessor, it wasn't as bad as expected. Mike Piazza and Edgardo
Alfonzo performed like superstars, Todd Zeile provided less batting average
but more power than Olerud, and Agbayani and Payton contributed much more
than anticipated. The last two needed to step up because Henderson was
useless and Darryl Hamilton was injured for most of the year.
Overall, the offense became more of a swing-for-the-fences team (17 more
homeruns, less walks, and more strikeouts) and less of a contact/on-base
team. They scored 46 fewer runs than the previous year but remained an
above-average offense considering they played half of their games in a
pitcher's park -- there were 11% fewer runs scored in Shea than in other
NL parks.
In 1999, many regarded the Mets infield as the best in baseball and possibly
ever because they made so few mistakes and had the league's best fielding
percentage. A year later, half of that infield was gone (Olerud and Rey
Ordonez), and the team made 50 more errors, resulting in a league-average
fielding percentage and the fewest double plays turned.
Mike Piazza, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 527 168 31 0 32 92 110 2 58 11 72 1 1 .319 .385 .560 .945 109
Prorated NYN 485 155 29 0 29 85 101 2 53 10 66 1 1 .319 .385 .560 .945 100
Actual NYN 482 156 26 0 38 90 113 3 58 10 69 4 2 .324 .398 .614 1.012 115
The best offensive catcher of all-time had his best season since his
amazing .362/40 HR performance in 1997, but he played in the fewest games
in five years. There will be no discussion about Piazza as the best catcher
of all-time once he makes the inevitable conversion to first base or DH.
His arm is the worst in baseball among regular catchers, and his bat is
too valuable to risk losing to injury from catching so many games.
Regardless of his position, Piazza is one of the best hitters of our
time -- his .328 career average ranks 4th among active career leaders
and his .580 slugging percentage is 5th. Only the 1994 strike stopped
him from hitting 30+ homeruns and driving in 100+ runs in each of his
eight full seasons. It would be incredible to see what Piazza could accomplish
as a DH in a hitters park when you consider that all of his home games
to date have been played in pitcher's parks.
Todd Pratt, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 96 27 5 0 3 13 17 2 10 0 21 1 0 .281 .358 .427 .785 16
Prorated NYN 167 47 9 0 5 23 30 3 17 0 37 2 0 .281 .358 .427 .785 27
Actual NYN 160 44 6 0 8 33 25 5 22 1 31 0 0 .275 .378 .463 .840 29
Pratt appeared in the most games in his career because of Piazza's nagging
injuries, and he made the most of his opportunity, setting personal bests
in homers, runs, RBI, and walks, leading to his best on-base percentage.
Behind the plate, Pratt is a big upgrade over Piazza -- runners attempted
to steal half as often and had less success against Pratt. I'm not sure
if he's cut out for more than a backup role, but if his batting eye is
really this good and he can sustain this power output -- only five NL
catchers with at least 150 plate appearances had a higher OPS -- Pratt
may deserve more time.
Todd Zeile, 1b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 557 148 31 1 20 76 85 4 67 3 95 2 2 .266 .345 .433 .778 83
Prorated NYN 546 145 30 1 20 75 83 4 66 3 93 2 2 .266 .345 .433 .778 82
Actual NYN 544 146 36 3 22 67 79 2 74 4 85 3 4 .268 .356 .467 .823 90
After losing Olerud to free agency, the Mets appeared to panic by signing
34-year-old Zeile to a three-year, $18 million deal to move to a foreign
position. Although Zeile's offensive performance was almost exactly the
same as Olerud's in Seattle -- Olerud hit for a better average but with
less power, resulting in an OPS only 8 points higher -- he ranked among
the least productive regular NL first basemen. Zeile made Phillips look
like a genius by hitting .305 with 14 homeruns through the break before
sliding drastically in the second half (.224, 19 fewer extra-base hits).
Surprisingly, Zeile's defensive range at first was better than most in
the league which may say more about the futility of today's crop. Part
of his success in the field may have been due to the unorthodox manner
used to hold runners with a lefty on the mound -- Zeile played in front
of the runner and off the bag which may have given him more range to his
right. Phillips needs two more solid years out of the veteran to justify
his investment.
Matt Franco, 1b/3b/lf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 64 16 3 0 1 9 8 0 11 2 9 0 0 .250 .360 .344 .704 8
Prorated NYN 134 33 6 0 2 19 17 0 23 4 19 0 0 .250 .360 .344 .704 16
Actual NYN 134 32 4 0 2 9 14 0 21 3 22 0 0 .239 .340 .313 .653 15
Despite having very little power or defensive value, Franco has retained
a spot on the Mets roster for five years primarily as a pinch hitter.
The lefty has been strictly used versus RHP -- more than 90% of his plate
appearances have been against righties -- and his batting eye is the best
part of his game. Unfortunately, Franco doesn't hit for a high batting
average so his on-base percentage is only league-average. He became a
free agent after the season and signed a minor league contract with, who
else, the Mets.
Edgardo Alfonzo, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 569 168 34 1 20 105 91 3 76 1 74 9 2 .295 .378 .464 .842 105
Prorated NYN 565 167 34 1 20 104 90 3 75 1 73 9 2 .295 .378 .464 .842 104
Actual NYN 544 176 40 2 25 109 94 5 95 1 70 3 2 .324 .425 .542 .967 131
Alfonzo's game continued to improve as he set career highs in batting
average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage -- only MVP Jeff
Kent had a higher OPS among NL second basemen. His batting eye was significantly
better than a year ago, resulting in 10 more walks in 76 fewer plate appearances
and the league's fifth best OBP. In the field, Alfonzo doesn't have the
outstanding range that some broadcasters would want you to believe, but
he doesn't make many mistakes -- he made the third-fewest errors at 2B
in the league.
Robin Ventura, 3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 566 158 32 2 25 83 99 2 75 11 99 0 0 .279 .363 .475 .838 99
Prorated NYN 481 134 27 2 21 71 84 2 64 9 84 0 0 .279 .363 .475 .838 84
Actual NYN 469 109 23 1 24 61 84 2 75 12 91 3 5 .232 .338 .439 .777 69
Following his outstanding debut season with the Mets, Ventura had surgery
on his knee and shoulder, and that may explain his dramatic drop off in
production -- he lost 69 points off his batting average and 90 points
off his slugging percentage. He was meeting expectations until he re-injured
his shoulder in June, causing him to eventually miss several games in
July. From July 1st to the end of the season, Ventura hit .223 and slugged
.372, resulting in his worst batting average as an everyday player. It
was unreasonable to expect him to duplicate his 1999 numbers, but Ventura
is not as bad as his 2000 season suggests. If he's healthy, expect him
to reach a level somewhere between his 1999 and 2000 performances.
Lenny Harris, 3b/1b/lf/rf/2b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 152 41 8 0 2 16 16 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 16
Prorated Ari 84 23 4 0 1 9 9 1 5 1 6 1 1 .270 .313 .362 .675 9
Actual Ari 85 16 1 1 1 9 13 0 3 1 5 5 0 .188 .209 .259 .468 5
Prorated NYN 146 39 8 0 2 15 15 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 15
Actual NYN 138 42 6 3 3 22 13 0 17 1 17 8 1 .304 .381 .457 .837 25
Prorated Tot 230 62 12 0 3 24 24 2 14 2 17 3 3 .270 .313 .362 .675 24
Actual Tot 223 58 7 4 4 31 26 0 20 2 22 13 1 .260 .317 .381 .698 28
Harris was in the midst of a horrible season when the Diamondbacks traded
him to New York for Bill Pulsipher, but the change of scenery turned him
around, and he raised his slugging percentage by almost 200 points. He
also walked more frequently as a Met and excelled in the leadoff spot
by getting on base 45% of the time. Harris turned 36 in October, but the
Mets re-signed him because he does a lot of things well, including baserunning,
bunting, and the ability to adequately play five positions.
Rey Ordonez, ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 528 135 23 2 4 55 57 1 43 8 61 7 6 .256 .310 .330 .640 53
Prorated NYN 139 36 6 1 1 14 15 0 11 2 16 2 2 .256 .310 .330 .640 14
Actual NYN 133 25 5 0 0 10 9 0 17 2 16 0 0 .188 .278 .226 .504 9
In 1997, then-teammate Greg McMichael described Ordonez as a "defensive
savant." This paints the most accurate picture of Ordonez' ability
because he has one very good skill -- his defense -- but is far below
average in all other aspects of the game. Offensively, he hits like a
pitcher (I'd much rather watch Mike Hampton bat), posting a career
OPS under .600. Perhaps Phillips can claim temporary insanity for signing
Ordonez to a 4-year, $19 million contract before the season. How long
will it take before they realize his defense is not good enough to justify
such awful offensive output? Ordonez doesn't deserve to be anything more
than a late-inning defensive replacement.
Ordonez' season ended in May due to a broken arm. In January, the Mets'
infield coach reported that he is in mid-season shape and will be ready
to resume his role at short.
Melvin Mora, ss/of/2b/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 98 23 4 0 1 15 9 2 12 0 17 3 2 .235 .327 .306 .634 11
Prorated NYN 206 48 8 0 2 32 19 4 25 0 36 6 4 .235 .327 .306 .634 22
Actual NYN 215 56 13 2 6 35 30 2 18 3 48 7 3 .260 .317 .423 .740 30
Prorated Bal 189 44 8 0 2 29 17 4 23 0 33 6 4 .235 .327 .306 .634 20
Actual Bal 199 58 9 3 2 25 17 4 17 0 32 5 8 .291 .359 .397 .756 27
Prorated Tot 395 93 16 0 4 61 36 8 48 0 69 12 8 .235 .327 .306 .634 43
Actual Tot 414 114 22 5 8 60 47 6 35 3 80 12 11 .275 .337 .411 .748 57
The Ordonez injury gave Mora the opportunity to be an everyday shortstop,
and he proved that his best role is as a utility player. Although he showed
more power than expected and was a big offensive upgrade from Ordonez,
Mora's numbers were still only average and he made too many mistakes at
short -- he made 19 errors in 96 games, a rate that projects to about
30 errors in a full season. Mora is most valuable as a utility player
because he can play 7 positions, but the Orioles are so bad that he is
currently on track to be their starting CF in 2001.
Mike Bordick, ss, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 536 137 27 3 11 71 60 6 48 1 82 6 5 .256 .320 .379 .699 63
Prorated Bal 383 98 19 2 8 51 43 4 34 1 59 4 4 .256 .320 .379 .699 45
Actual Bal 391 116 22 1 16 70 59 1 34 0 71 6 5 .297 .350 .481 .831 63
Prorated NYN 187 48 9 1 4 25 21 2 17 0 29 2 2 .256 .320 .379 .699 22
Actual NYN 192 50 8 0 4 18 21 2 15 0 28 3 1 .260 .321 .365 .685 23
Prorated Tot 570 146 29 3 12 75 64 6 51 1 87 6 5 .256 .320 .379 .699 66
Actual Tot 583 166 30 1 20 88 80 3 49 0 99 9 6 .285 .341 .443 .783 85
Bordick got off to a great start with Baltimore, allowing him to cruise
to a career year, setting new highs in homeruns, RBI, and slugging percentage.
When the Mets acquired him to fill the void left by Ordonez, fans were
excited to finally have an offensive threat at short. The deal paid immediate
dividends as Bordick homered in his first atbat as a Met and hit .324
in August, but a horrendous September (.184 AVG, .224 SPC) brought his
overall numbers as a Met in line with the original, below-average expectations.
Bordick was only a rental for New York, and he re-signed with the Orioles
after the season.
Kurt Abbott, ss/2b/3b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 69 16 4 0 1 8 8 0 5 0 18 0 0 .232 .284 .333 .617 7
Prorated NYN 159 37 9 0 2 18 18 0 12 0 42 0 0 .232 .284 .333 .617 15
Actual NYN 157 34 7 1 6 22 12 1 14 2 51 1 1 .217 .283 .389 .672 17
Considering he only hit .269 over the last two seasons as a Rockie, it
wasn't surprising to see Abbott's average drop to a career low after moving
to a pitcher's park, but he unexpectedly maintained his power. Like Mora,
he played more than expected because of Ordonez' injury but also filled
in at short during Bordick's rough September and post-season. And like
Mora, Abbott is more valuable as a bench player, a role he hopes to have
with the Braves in 2001.
Rickey Henderson, lf, age 41
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 539 144 27 0 13 102 54 4 111 1 106 47 13 .267 .394 .390 .784 97
Prorated NYN 102 27 5 0 2 19 10 1 21 0 20 9 2 .267 .394 .390 .784 18
Actual NYN 96 21 1 0 0 17 2 2 25 1 20 5 2 .219 .387 .229 .616 11
Prorated Sea 324 86 16 0 8 61 32 2 67 1 64 28 8 .267 .394 .390 .784 58
Actual Sea 324 77 13 2 4 58 30 2 63 0 55 31 9 .238 .362 .327 .689 45
Prorated Tot 425 114 21 0 10 80 43 3 88 1 84 37 10 .267 .394 .390 .784 76
Actual Tot 420 98 14 2 4 75 32 4 88 1 75 36 11 .233 .368 .305 .673 56
After disrespecting his manager and team by playing cards in the clubhouse
during the 1999 playoffs, Henderson entered the season in management's
doghouse and his drastic decline in performance was the final straw. He
lost 96 points of batting average from the previous year but thanks to
a great batting eye, he still reached base at an above-average rate. Henderson's
power output was disgraceful (one extra-base hit) and his defense continued
to be a liability. The Mets bid him farewell in mid-May, and Seattle signed
him less than a week later. His play improved slightly as a Mariner, but
the results were well below his career norms. Henderson is currently a
free agent in search of a job.
Benny Agbayani, lf/rf/cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 83 23 5 1 3 12 12 1 11 1 16 3 1 .277 .365 .470 .834 15
Prorated NYN 359 99 22 4 13 52 52 4 48 4 69 13 4 .277 .365 .470 .834 63
Actual NYN 350 101 20 1 15 59 60 7 54 2 68 5 5 .289 .391 .480 .871 68
Henderson's release allowed Agbayani to play more than expected, and
he proved to be a valuable top-of-the-order hitter, reaching base 39%
of the time and hitting with the extra-base power necessary to drive in
runs. His OPS was slightly above average among regular NL left fielders,
but his defense is below average (although still better than Henderson).
Agbayani has quickly become a manager and fan favorite for his ability,
likable personality, and memorable post-season hits.
Darryl Hamilton, lf/cf/rf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 482 139 21 3 7 73 44 2 60 0 54 7 6 .288 .368 .388 .756 72
Prorated NYN 105 30 5 1 2 16 10 0 13 0 12 2 1 .288 .368 .388 .756 16
Actual NYN 105 29 4 1 1 20 6 0 14 0 20 2 0 .276 .358 .362 .720 15
Hamilton opened the season as the starting center fielder but an injury
to his left big toe required surgery, causing him to miss four months.
When he returned, Payton had won the job, so Hamilton was used as a reserve
and spot starter in all three outfield positions. He has always been a
good on-base guy who hits for average but has no power -- he has yet to
reach a double-digit homerun total in one season -- and his poor arm suits
him best in left field. But Hamilton may see significant time given New
York's hole in right.
Joe McEwing, lf/3b/2b/cf/rf/ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 90 26 6 1 2 12 9 1 7 1 14 1 1 .289 .343 .444 .788 14
Prorated NYN 152 44 10 2 3 20 15 2 12 2 24 2 2 .289 .343 .444 .788 23
Actual NYN 153 34 14 1 2 20 19 1 5 0 29 3 1 .222 .248 .366 .614 14
After his late-May callup, Super Joe did everything . . . except hit.
His on-base percentage was embarrassing, but McEwing played six positions
adequately, displayed a very good outfield arm, and was an excellent bunter
and baserunner. His attitude is commendable -- he hustles and is willing
to do anything his manager asks -- but he lacks the ability at the plate
to be anything more than a role player.
Jay Payton, cf/lf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 76 21 4 1 2 10 9 1 5 0 10 2 2 .276 .329 .434 .763 10
Prorated NYN 490 135 26 6 13 65 58 6 32 0 65 13 13 .276 .329 .434 .763 67
Actual NYN 488 142 23 1 17 63 62 3 30 0 60 5 11 .291 .331 .447 .778 68
When he was at Georgia Tech, Payton put up the best numbers among their
star trio that included Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Varitek, but it wasn't
until this year that he became the last of the three to establish himself
as a starting major-leaguer. His development was delayed because of several
injury-riddled seasons in the minors, but he enjoyed a rare healthy season
and earned the job opened up by Hamilton's injury. In a league loaded
with powerful center fielders (Richard Hidalgo, Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds,
Ken Griffey, Andruw Jones, etc.), Payton's offensive production fell in
the middle of the pack. Although he hit for a good average, he didn't
walk much and his power was only average. Defensively, he showed average
range but a very good arm.
Derek Bell, rf/cf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 539 145 26 1 16 74 76 4 51 1 113 14 4 .269 .333 .410 .743 73
Prorated NYN 559 150 27 1 17 77 79 4 53 1 117 15 4 .269 .333 .410 .743 76
Actual NYN 546 145 31 1 18 87 69 6 65 0 125 8 4 .266 .348 .425 .773 82
After a disastrous 1999 season, the Astros dumped Bell on the Mets in
the Mike Hampton deal. His game picked up, but the one-year stopover in
New York only produced numbers in line with his career averages -- an
unacceptable OPS for an NL right fielder. Through the first half of the
season Bell was outstanding (.318, 12 HR, 53 RBI) before slipping into
an ugly 2 1/2 month slump to end the season (.187, 6 HR, 16 RBI). As one
of the off-season's dumbest moves, the Pirates signed Bell to a two-year
deal worth $9.75 million. I guess he's their Wil Cordero of 2001.
Bubba Trammell, rf/lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 108 30 7 0 6 17 18 0 13 0 20 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 20
Prorated Tam 189 52 12 0 10 30 31 0 23 0 35 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 35
Actual Tam 189 52 11 2 7 19 33 2 21 0 30 3 0 .275 .352 .466 .818 32
Prorated NYN 58 16 4 0 3 9 10 0 7 0 11 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 11
Actual NYN 56 13 2 0 3 9 12 0 8 0 19 1 0 .232 .323 .429 .752 8
Prorated Tot 246 68 16 0 14 39 41 0 30 0 46 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 45
Actual Tot 245 65 13 2 10 28 45 2 29 0 49 4 0 .265 .345 .457 .802 39
With Greg Vaughn in left, Gerald Williams in center, Jose Guillen's superior
defense in right, and Jose Canseco at DH, Tampa Bay couldn't find enough
time for Trammell so they traded him and Rick White in a deadline deal
to New York for Jason Tyner and Paul Wilson. Despite a lack of outfield
offense (especially from Bell after the break), the Mets used Trammell
even less than Tampa, and his performance was worse. In December, New
York traded him to the Padres for Donne Wall. Trammell may finally get
a legitimate shot at a starting job as he competes against San Diego's
weak-hitting outfielders.
Timoniel Perez, rf/lf/cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual NYN 49 14 4 1 1 11 3 1 3 0 5 1 1 .286 .333 .469 .803 8
Two days before their season opener against the Cubs in Japan, the Mets
decided to do a little shopping, purchasing the contract of Perez, who
had spent the last four years playing in Hiroshima. In single- and triple-A
ball, Perez batted .357 and earned a September callup to the big club.
As he did in the minors, Perez continued to display decent power for a
little guy (5'9'', 167 lbs), and he excelled in the first two rounds of
the playoffs, frustrating the Giants and Cardinals before the Yankees
shut him down in the Subway Series. In 2001, Timo has a shot at the starting
right field job but has yet to prove that he can be a major-league starter.
Key Pitchers
New York replaced Orel Hershiser and Masato Yoshii with Mike Hampton
and Glendon Rusch and gave Bobby J. Jones more starts in place of Octavio
Dotel and Kenny Rogers. And the nucleus of their deep bullpen (Dennis
Cook, John Franco, Turk Wendell, and Armando Benitez) remained intact.
While the addition of Hampton figured to improve the staff, it was reasonable
to expect the defense to be worse (thanks to the loss of Olerud and Cedeno),
and our pre-season projections suggested that the staff would allow more
runs to score than the previous year.
The staff did, in fact, allow 27 more runs to score, because the defense
made a lot more errors and allowed more unearned runs to score. But the
staff ERA actually decreased, with the Mets' ERA rank improving to 3rd
from 5th best because they walked 43 fewer batters and allowed 41 fewer
extra-base hits than in 1999.
The starters were led by ace-quality performances by Hampton and Al Leiter,
a breakthrough year by Glendon Rusch, and a solid effort by Rick Reed.
Once again, New York's rotation ranked in the league's top 5 for quality
starts (86), and their 4.07 ERA was second only to Atlanta's starters
(4.06).
Although Dennis Cook struggled throughout the year, John Franco, Turk
Wendell, and Armando Benitez were even better than expected, making it
tough for opponents to come back in the late innings -- the pen converted
71% of save opportunities, good enough for third in the NL.
Mike Hampton, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.55 32 32 15 9 0 213 203 15 87 142 .256 .688
Prorated NYN 3.55 33 33 16 9 0 220 210 16 90 147 .256 .688
Actual NYN 3.14 33 33 15 10 0 218 194 10 99 151 .241 .653
Hampton's one-year stay with the Mets was a success, but it started out
very shaky -- he struggled with his control through his first seven starts,
walking 36 batters in 38.2 innings (2-4, 6.52 ERA). But he quickly settled
into a groove, winning seven of his next eight decisions and setting him
on course to finish with his second-best ERA. Hampton's ERA was the league's
fourth best, and he had the league's lowest homerun rate and slugging
percentage allowed. He is a great athlete who may be the best hitting
pitcher in the league, is a good bunter, and can run the bases.
Hampton has spent most of his time pitching in home parks that favor
pitchers (Astrodome and Shea), but he will spend 2001 in the unfriendly
confines of Coors Field. The Rockies tied him up for eight years at $121
million. The park may not affect Hampton as much as others because he
is an extreme groundball pitcher and has always kept the ball in the park,
but he'll need to avoid the control problems he experienced early on with
the Mets.
Al Leiter, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.04 32 32 13 10 0 207 199 18 90 166 .254 .725
Prorated NYN 4.04 31 31 13 10 0 202 194 18 88 162 .254 .725
Actual NYN 3.20 31 31 16 8 0 208 176 19 76 200 .228 .661
Leiter came back from a disappointing season and knee surgery to dominate
hitters and lead his team in victories. He was also among the league's
top five in ERA, strikeouts, and batting average allowed. Leiter reached
200 strikeouts for the second time in his career, walked batters at his
lowest rate ever, had his best strikeout-walk ratio, and was virtually
unhittable against left-handed batters (.119 AVG). He established himself
as an ace-caliber starter, and Hampton's departure ensures Leiter will
be New York's stopper in 2001.
Rick Reed, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.58 32 32 11 11 0 197 210 29 51 132 .275 .774
Prorated NYN 4.58 30 30 10 10 0 182 194 27 47 122 .275 .774
Actual NYN 4.11 30 30 11 5 0 184 192 28 34 121 .266 .742
After an injury-plagued 1999 season, Reed bounced back to pitch with
the pinpoint control the Mets have come to expect -- he walked the fewest
batters among NL pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. He was outstanding
in the first month (3-0, 2.21 ERA) but struggled in May and June (1-2,
6.50) before finishing strong after the break (7-3, 3.47).
Reed is a late bloomer who only threw more than 55 innings once in his
eight seasons before joining the Mets at age 31. Now they've invested
$21.75 million over the next three years, hoping he can step up into the
second slot of the starting rotation.
Bobby J. Jones, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.41 32 32 11 11 0 196 203 23 59 117 .269 .755
Prorated NYN 4.41 26 26 9 9 0 159 165 19 48 95 .269 .755
Actual NYN 5.06 27 27 11 6 0 155 171 25 49 85 .281 .826
Jones was once a 15-game winner and one of New York's few promising starters,
but injuries have prevented him from ever throwing 200 innings in a season.
In 1999, he made only nine starts before a shoulder injury ended his season
early, and last season, he missed almost five weeks with a strained right
calf muscle. When he pitched, he was awful through the break (3-4, 6.79
ERA), managing only four quality starts, but he picked it up in mid-July
and proceeded to record nine quality starts, an 8-2 record, and a 3.98
ERA the rest of the way. After the season, Jones became a free agent and
signed a one-year, $625,000 contract with San Diego.
Glendon Rusch, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 5.41 44 27 8 11 0 185 222 23 69 134 .299 .821
Prorated NYN 5.41 43 26 8 11 0 178 215 22 67 129 .299 .821
Actual NYN 4.01 31 30 11 11 0 191 196 18 44 157 .267 .709
Rusch displayed impressive command in his debut as a Mets starter, walking
the 4th fewest batters in the league (among ERA title qualifiers) while
striking them out at a career-best rate. He also finished just outside
the top 10 in fewest homeruns allowed per nine innings. Although his name
was included in trade rumors this off-season, he remains an important
part of New York's 2001 rotation -- he is better and much cheaper than
Kevin Appier and Steve Trachsel.
Pat Mahomes, long reliever/spot starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.91 53 0 4 3 0 74 63 10 38 55 .231 .747
Prorated NYN 3.91 73 0 6 4 0 102 87 14 52 76 .231 .747
Actual NYN 5.46 53 5 5 3 0 94 96 15 66 76 .263 .847
In 1999, Mahomes finished 8-0 with an ERA under 4.70 for the first time
in his career, so it wasn't reasonable for the Mets to expect a repeat
performance in 2000. As it turned out, he appeared in more games than
ever before but was less successful, posting numbers closer to his career
averages than those of his 1999 season.
Mahomes' control was particularly bad (career high walk total), and the
flyball pitcher surrendered homeruns frequently, making for a deadly combo.
He was unreliable in crucial game situations, allowing the NL's worst
percentage of inherited runners to score (57%), but the Mets used him
often and kept him on the roster throughout the regular season. In December,
Mahomes became a free agent and later signed a minor-league contract with
Texas, a team desperate for pitching help.
Bobby M. Jones, long reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.30 17 0 2 2 0 29 27 3 16 21 .248 .732
Prorated NYN 4.30 13 0 2 2 0 23 21 2 12 16 .248 .732
Actual NYN 4.15 11 1 0 1 0 22 18 2 14 20 .222 .749
Jones didn't make a good first impression with the Mets -- after his
June callup, he made three ugly appearances before calling his manager
a "joke" and earning a demotion to the minors. He would later
return for a meaningless September callup, but you can bet he's not one
of Valentine's favorites.
On the rare occasion that he pitched, Jones held opponents to a lower-than-expected
batting average but walked a couple more guys, producing overall results
in line with his projection. Given the addition of Wall and Rick Croushore,
the presence of lefties John Franco and Dennis Cook, and his poor standing
with the manager, I don't expect Jones to log a lot of innings with the
big club in 2001.
Rich Rodriguez, middle reliever, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 4.24 23 0 1 1 0 23 27 3 9 15 .290 .812
Prorated NYN 4.24 41 0 2 2 0 42 48 5 16 27 .290 .812
Actual NYN 7.78 32 0 0 1 0 37 59 7 15 18 .364 1.034
There's nothing positive that can be said of this lefty's season. Rodriguez
made the Opening Day roster and actually lasted three months and 23 horrible
appearances before a demotion to AAA. He had two more callups but only
pitched 7.2 innings after the break with equally poor results. Although
the southpaw fared much better against left-handed batters, they still
tagged him for a .556 slugging percentage. Rodriguez has one more year
remaining on his contract with the Mets, but it may be time to call it
quits.
Rick White, long reliever, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.13 23 0 2 3 0 47 56 5 16 31 .298 .806
Prorated Tam 5.13 33 0 3 4 0 67 79 7 23 44 .298 .806
Actual Tam 3.41 44 0 3 6 2 71 57 7 26 47 .220 .649
Prorated NYN 5.13 14 0 1 2 0 29 34 3 10 19 .298 .806
Actual NYN 3.81 22 0 2 3 1 28 26 2 12 20 .232 .663
Prorated Tot 5.13 47 0 4 6 0 96 114 10 32 63 .298 .806
Actual Tot 3.52 66 0 5 9 3 100 83 9 38 67 .224 .653
White pitched way beyond expectations, putting together his finest season
to date, including his lowest ERA and opponent's batting average. He was
tough on righties (.193) and continued to keep the ball in the park. Despite
being Tampa Bay's best long reliever, the Devil Rays sent him to the Mets
with Trammell for a young player that may develop into a true leadoff
hitter (Tyner) and a pitcher (Wilson). With New York, White continued
to pitch well as a member of the NL's deepest bullpen.
John Franco, lefty setup, age 39
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.58 70 0 4 6 1 73 73 5 31 65 .264 .721
Prorated NYN 3.58 53 0 3 5 1 55 55 4 24 49 .264 .721
Actual NYN 3.40 62 0 5 4 4 56 46 6 26 56 .221 .640
Although he prefers to be a closer, Franco was very effective in his
first full season as a setup man, holding 20 leads (5th in the NL) and
making good on his four save opportunities. Among his accomplishments
for this season was a streak of 21 consecutive innings without allowing
an earned run covering 24 appearances from the end of June to the beginning
of September. As usual, the lefty reliever didn't allow much more than
singles to left-handed batters. In fact, this season he didn't allow anything
but singles against lefties and hasn't allowed them to hit a homerun
over the last seven seasons.
Franco became a free agent after the season and indicated he wanted to
be a closer, but he eventually re-signed with New York for $10.5 million
over the next three years. He will be 43 when the contract expires. The
Mets are taking a financial risk on a guy who can only face a few batters
per appearance and needs to be spotted -- in 2000, he had an ERA of 6.35
with no rest, 3.18 with one or two days of rest, and 2.08 with three or
more days of rest.
Dennis Cook, lefty setup, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.90 53 0 3 2 0 55 51 7 24 58 .244 .736
Prorated NYN 3.90 60 0 3 2 0 62 57 8 27 65 .244 .736
Actual NYN 5.34 68 0 6 3 2 59 63 8 31 53 .270 .789
Cook entered the season looking to improve after his second-half collapse
in 1999 (6.23 ERA). He started strong (3-0, 2.87 ERA through May 3rd),
but that was the highlight of his season. The veteran lefty was uncharacteristically
shelled by left-handed batters (.322 AVG), leading to six blown saves
in eight opportunities and a 6.23 ERA the rest of the way. Overall, he
posted his highest ERA in seven years and logged his fewest innings pitched
in five years. Cook enters the final year of his contract with New York,
and at his age, it may be his last in baseball.
Turk Wendell, setup man, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 3.71 70 0 6 3 3 97 91 10 43 79 .248 .729
Prorated NYN 3.71 58 0 5 2 2 80 75 8 35 65 .248 .729
Actual NYN 3.59 77 0 8 6 1 83 60 9 41 73 .206 .669
Only three NL pitchers appeared in more games than Wendell and only four
were more effective when entering the game with men on base -- he allowed
only 15% of inherited runners to score. His success in these situations
was due to holding batters to a .177 average with men in scoring position.
Overall, Wendell excelled because he didn't get himself into trouble early
-- the first batter he faced only reached base 21% of the time. He tends
to get better with more work and this season was no exception as batters
slugged 121 percentage points lower after the break. Wendell wanted to
stay with the Mets and continue to pitch in Shea (1.99 home ERA versus
5.54 road ERA in 2000), so the eccentric righty re-signed for the next
three seasons at $9,399,999.99.
Armando Benitez, closer, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 2.26 70 0 6 4 45 76 48 6 42 107 .181 .588
Prorated NYN 2.26 68 0 6 4 43 73 46 6 41 103 .181 .588
Actual NYN 2.61 76 0 4 4 41 76 39 10 38 106 .148 .559
No one in the majors finished more games than Benitez, and there were
few better closers in the NL -- he finished 3rd in saves and 2nd in save
percentage. In his first full season as the Mets closer, he struggled
with the long ball early in the season (5 homers in 17 innings), resulting
in shaky numbers through the first five weeks (6.88 ERA through May 6th).
But Benitez settled into a groove and dominated hitters the rest of the
way (1.37 ERA). The only knock on Benitez' regular season game was that
he allowed 50% of inherited runners to score, the third highest percentage
in the league.
As great as he's been during the regular season, Benitez has been almost
as disappointing in the playoffs, allowing 44 baserunners and 7 homeruns
in 30.1 career post-season innings, though much of that damage was done
while he was still with Baltimore. Maybe the Mets ought to consider flip-flopping
Benitez and Franco when the post-season rolls around.
Outlook
Early in the free agent period, it seemed predetermined that Alex Rodriguez
would eventually land in New York, but Phillips' public objection to A-Rod's
excessive demands and agent Scott Boras' denial of any such demands quickly
killed any possibility of A-Rod wearing a Mets uniform.
Once they lost Hampton as well, upper management panicked and overpaid
for 33-year-old Kevin Appier (four years, $42 million) and Steve Trachsel
(two years, $7 million). Trachsel will adequately replace Bobby J. Jones,
who eventually signed for much less money, but Appier is a huge downgrade
from Hampton.
While the rotation will be worse, the bullpen should still be among the
league's best. They will have White for an entire season of long relief,
a major improvement over Mahomes, and the acquisition of Wall from San
Diego adds even more depth.
Offensively, the Mets did nothing in the off-season to improve. There
is a huge hole in right field that is set to be filled by some unimpressive
combination of Hamilton, Perez, Harris, Tsuyoshi Shinjo (lifetime .244
hitter in Japan), and Darren Bragg. Rey Ordonez returns to help the defense
but remains a major liability at the plate. They need Ventura to bounce
back in a big way, Zeile to play closer to his first-half performance,
and Alfonzo and Piazza to duplicate their 2000 output.
The best news for the Mets is that the only NL team that may have done
less in the off-season to improve their team was the Braves, so I wouldn't
be surprised to see the Mets in the thick of the NL East race. But Bobby
Valentine will need to work even more magic if this team wants to get
back to the big dance.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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