2000 Post-Season Review -- Oakland Athletics
By Zack Scott
February 26, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Oakland Athletics performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 938 947
Runs allowed 927 813
Run Margin 11 134
Wins 80 91
Pythagorean wins 82 93
Placement 3rd 1st
In an age of $100 million payrolls and discussions about contraction,
it's refreshing to see a small-market team defy the odds. Only Pittsburgh,
Montreal, Florida, Kansas City, and Minnesota fielded teams with a lower
payroll than the A's ($32.7 million), and those teams combined to win
only 45% of their games in 2000. The difference between Oakland and these
teams (besides an average of 19 wins) is that GM Billy Beane may be the
best in the game. Unlike some of his peers, he doesn't live and die with
batting averages because he realizes a walk is as good as a hit when your
lineup is capable of going deep often. Beane has employed a similar philosophy
on the other side of the ball by bringing in pitchers, young or old, that
keep the ball in the park and therefore, minimize the damage.
In 2000, the A's virtually mirrored the Seattle Mariners throughout the
entire year, always one small step behind. Both teams played mediocre
ball through May before taking off in June (Oakland: 18-7, Seattle: 19-8).
Both teams slumped miserably in August, winning only 11 games each, and
Oakland entered September 2 1/2 games behind the Mariners for the division
and 2 games behind Cleveland for the wild card. Of the four teams (including
Boston who was 1 game ahead of Oakland) battling for the two playoff spots,
the A's had by far the easiest September schedule and they took advantage
of it, beating up on Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Anaheim, and Texas.
In the end, Cleveland won 20 games and Seattle won 19, but no team in
the majors won more September games than Oakland (22), and they clinched
the AL West title on the season's final day.
In their first playoff appearance since 1990, Oakland became only the
second team in five years to take the Yankees to a deciding game, falling
one bad inning short of ending New York's reign.
Key Position Players
After scoring the league's 4th highest run total in 1999, Beane made
no significant changes to a lineup that contained a mix of veterans and
young players with huge upsides. He has built an offense predicated on
the big inning -- they get on base via walks then look to launch bombs
into the bleachers.
The 2000 edition got less out of veterans like John Jaha, Matt Stairs,
and Randy Velarde, but Jason Giambi's MVP season and the continued development
of Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez resulted in a more potent attack and
54 more runs than in the previous year. They improved across the board,
raising their batting average 11 points and once again finished second
in the AL in homers and in the top two for walks.
Their 40 stolen bases was the lowest total in the majors, and their lack
of speed doesn't help them in the field -- while they were strong up the
middle, their corner outfield play was unacceptable and the corner infielders
were average at best.
Ramon Hernandez, c, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 454 113 17 2 14 56 74 9 39 1 49 3 2 .249 .317 .388 .705 54
Prorated Oak 426 106 16 2 13 52 69 8 37 1 46 3 2 .249 .317 .388 .705 51
Actual Oak 419 101 19 0 14 52 62 7 38 1 64 1 0 .241 .311 .387 .698 50
Hernandez earned the starting job because of a league-average performance
in his 1999 debut and two years of league-awful production from A.J. Hinch.
In his first full season as the #1 catcher, Hernandez performed almost
exactly as expected with the exception of several more strikeouts. His
OPS ranked towards the bottom among AL catchers, and his 13 errors were
by far the most in the league (for catchers), but Oakland is confident
that he will continue to develop. They officially gave up on A.J. Hinch
by including him in the off-season deal for Johnny Damon, relieving Hernandez
of some pressure in 2001.
Sal Fasano, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 80 18 3 0 4 12 12 6 8 0 20 0 0 .225 .337 .413 .749 12
Prorated Oak 121 27 5 0 6 18 18 9 12 0 30 0 0 .225 .337 .413 .749 18
Actual Oak 126 27 6 0 7 21 19 3 14 0 47 0 0 .214 .306 .429 .734 17
Fasano continued to exhibit the good batting eye he developed during
the previous year in the minors, but he struck out at his highest rate
ever and still cannot hit for average. Perhaps playing with a sprained
ankle in May explained his .602 OPS at the break. His bat appeared to
come around as the weather got warmer, with Fasano hitting five homeruns
in 47 atbats (.617 SPC) the rest of the way. This season, he will continue
to back up Hernandez.
Jason Giambi, 1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 560 170 35 1 29 99 110 7 90 5 102 0 0 .304 .402 .525 .927 123
Prorated Oak 559 170 35 1 29 99 110 7 90 5 102 0 0 .304 .402 .525 .927 123
Actual Oak 510 170 29 1 43 108 137 9 137 6 96 2 0 .333 .476 .647 1.123 172
Giambi battled through a strained left shoulder and put together a monster
season worthy of the AL MVP award. He essentially won the award in the
final month, carrying his team to a 22-7 September record by hitting .396
with 13 homers (.844 SPC) and 32 RBI. But Giambi was consistently excellent,
leading the majors in on-base percentage and walks and finishing second
in the AL in homeruns, third in slugging percentage, and fourth in RBI.
Over his career, Giambi's OPS has increased each year, but in the last
two years, he has become one of baseball's elite offensive players (102
point increase in OPS from 1998 to 1999 and 148 point increase from 1999
to 2000). It's hard to imagine that he can continue to improve at such
a rate if at all, but the A's should do everything they can to lock up
their franchise player to a contract extension.
Mike Stanley, 1b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bos 552 148 29 0 26 80 89 11 84 4 119 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 99
Prorated Bos 184 49 10 0 9 27 30 4 28 1 40 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 33
Actual Bos 185 41 5 0 10 22 28 0 30 0 44 0 0 .222 .327 .411 .738 27
Prorated Oak 96 26 5 0 4 14 15 2 15 1 21 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 17
Actual Oak 97 26 7 0 4 11 18 1 14 0 21 0 0 .268 .363 .464 .827 17
Prorated Tot 280 75 15 0 13 41 45 6 43 2 60 0 0 .268 .372 .462 .834 50
Actual Tot 282 67 12 0 14 33 46 1 44 0 65 0 0 .238 .339 .429 .768 44
An abysmal June (.170, no extra-base hits) sealed Stanley's fate with
the Red Sox, and he was released. Oakland picked him up in August, and
his play improved up to his expected level, but they left him off of their
post-season roster and made no effort to re-sign him after the season.
Stanley has a very good batting eye and still hits lefties well (.301),
so he is valuable at least in a platoon role at DH or first, but he has
yet to sign with anyone.
Mario Valdez, 1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Min 64 16 3 0 2 10 10 2 9 0 14 0 0 .250 .360 .391 .751 9
Prorated Oak 10 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .250 .360 .391 .751 1
Actual Oak 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0
If John Jaha does not return to his 1999 level, don't be surprised if
Valdez sees a lot of playing time as Oakland's DH. At Triple-A, he hit
.344 and has never slugged below .518 in his four seasons at that level
of the minors. He came to the A's from Minnesota in a July 31st trade
that sent catcher Danny Ardoin to the Twins.
Randy Velarde, 2b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 592 182 26 7 14 93 72 6 70 1 100 19 7 .307 .386 .446 .832 102
Prorated Oak 482 148 21 6 11 76 59 5 57 1 81 15 6 .307 .386 .446 .832 83
Actual Oak 485 135 23 0 12 82 41 3 54 0 95 9 3 .278 .354 .400 .754 69
After a career year in 1999, Velarde's performance fell back in line
with his career averages, losing almost 40 points off his batting average
in one year. His offensive decline can be traced to one bad month -- he
batted .217 in August and .291 in all other months -- which was most likely
due to a sprained neck. Although his offensive output was in the middle
of the pack among AL second sackers, our defensive analysis found him
to have excellent range and above-average hands for the second straight
year. After the season, the A's traded Velarde to Texas to save some money
and open up the 2B job for top prospect Jose Ortiz.
Frank Menechino, 2b/ss/3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 81 21 3 1 2 14 10 2 12 1 15 1 1 .259 .365 .395 .760 12
Prorated Oak 143 37 5 2 4 25 18 4 21 2 26 2 2 .259 .365 .395 .760 21
Actual Oak 145 37 9 1 6 31 26 1 20 0 45 1 4 .255 .345 .455 .800 23
For the first month of the season, Menechino assumed the starting second
base job thanks to the sprained knee tendon that sidelined Velarde until
May 8th. In that time, Menechino was a more than adequate replacement,
batting .293 and slugging .524, but he was demoted to the minors upon
Velarde's return and later recalled to fill a utility role. Despite being
far less successful as a bench player (.206 AVG, .365 SPC) and playing
below-average defense, Menechino will begin this season as a utility infielder
unless the unproven Ortiz falters.
Jose Ortiz, 2b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 68 16 4 0 1 11 8 1 5 0 9 2 1 .235 .297 .338 .636 7
Prorated Oak 12 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .235 .297 .338 .636 1
Actual Oak 11 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 .182 .308 .182 .490 1
In the minors, Ortiz has improved at each level, culminating in 2000
with a Pacific Coast League MVP performance in which he hit .351, led
the league in hits, walloped 63 extra-base hits (4th), and finished second
in RBI and runs. His reward is a chance to be Oakland's everyday second-baseman.
Ortiz will most likely be a defensive downgrade from Velarde, but he has
the potential to provide very good power from a typically weak-hitting
position.
Eric Chavez, 3b, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 379 105 26 1 17 58 63 1 41 3 62 3 3 .277 .348 .485 .834 63
Prorated Oak 510 141 35 1 23 78 85 1 55 4 83 4 4 .277 .348 .485 .834 85
Actual Oak 501 139 23 4 26 89 86 1 62 8 94 2 2 .277 .355 .495 .850 89
Among left-handed hitters, Chavez was the AL's 11th best versus RHP,
ranking right up there with the likes of Rafael Palmeiro and Mo Vaughn.
But Chris Singleton was the only everyday lefty who was worse than Chavez
against southpaws. Despite the huge difference in his splits, only Troy
Glaus and Travis Fryman had a higher overall OPS among AL third basemen.
Chavez is young enough to develop into an average hitter against lefties,
and that would be good enough to propel him to star status. But if he
fails to improve, his defense is not good enough to justify more than
a platoon role.
Miguel Tejada, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 522 132 27 3 18 81 74 9 48 1 94 8 7 .253 .324 .420 .744 70
Prorated Oak 604 153 31 3 21 94 86 10 55 1 109 9 8 .253 .324 .420 .744 81
Actual Oak 607 167 32 1 30 105 115 4 66 6 102 6 0 .275 .349 .479 .828 102
Tejada is gradually approaching the level of the AL's Holy Trinity of
shortstops, but he still needs to add about 50 points to his batting average
just to have one comparable season. Such an improvement in one year is
not out of the realm of possibility considering that Tejada has increased
his OPS by an average of 85 points per year in his first four seasons.
Tejada has the advantage of being the youngest of the four and may have
an edge on the defensive side of the ball -- last year, his range was
better than any member of the Trinity and his fielding percentage was
second only to A-Rod's.
Ben Grieve, lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 529 154 31 1 27 93 96 8 77 2 113 3 1 .291 .389 .507 .895 105
Prorated Oak 581 169 34 1 30 102 105 9 85 2 124 3 1 .291 .389 .507 .895 115
Actual Oak 594 166 40 1 27 92 104 3 73 2 130 3 0 .279 .359 .487 .845 98
In his three full seasons in the majors, Grieve has yet to improve his
all-around game. From 1998 to 1999, he hit 10 more homeruns but 20 fewer
doubles and walked less frequently, and last year, he returned to whacking
doubles at his 1998 rate but hit homers at a lower rate than 1999. So
there have been tradeoffs in his game each year, but Grieve's OPS has
been remarkably consistent during those three years (.844, .839, .845).
He needs to make improvements because his game is very one dimensional
-- he can't run (grounded into a league-leading 32 double plays) and is
an awful outfielder. Beane was smart to trade Grieve in the Johnny Damon
deal, essentially giving Tampa Bay a DH in exchange for an offensive spark
who is one of the game's better defensive outfielders and possibly the
best on the basepaths.
Ryan Christenson, lf/cf/rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 65 16 3 0 1 11 7 0 8 0 15 1 1 .246 .324 .338 .663 8
Prorated Oak 133 33 6 0 2 22 14 0 16 0 31 2 2 .246 .324 .338 .663 15
Actual Oak 129 32 2 2 4 31 18 1 19 0 33 1 2 .248 .349 .388 .737 19
Christenson shared the center field job with Rich Becker until the A's
decided to go with Terrence Long at the end of April. Once Long proved
he could play everyday, Christenson was used mostly as a defensive replacement
for Grieve in left. The biggest knock on Christenson is that he hasn't
hit right-handed pitchers, but he reversed that trend in 2000, batting
73 points higher than his career average against righties. While it may
be encouraging, his success was probably a fluke considering that he faced
righties only 88 times, and it should similarly be noted that he hit a
meager .167 versus LHP. Christenson's good outfield range and baserunning
instincts make him most valuable as a defensive sub and pinch runner.
Rich Becker, cf/lf/rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 570 144 22 3 15 88 63 5 111 1 175 15 3 .253 .378 .381 .759 90
Prorated Oak 49 12 2 0 1 8 5 0 9 0 15 1 0 .253 .378 .381 .759 8
Actual Oak 47 11 2 0 1 11 5 1 11 0 17 1 0 .234 .390 .340 .730 7
Prorated Det 245 62 9 1 6 38 27 2 48 0 75 6 1 .253 .378 .381 .759 39
Actual Det 238 58 12 0 7 48 34 0 56 0 70 1 2 .244 .383 .382 .765 41
Prorated Tot 294 74 11 2 8 45 33 3 57 1 90 8 2 .253 .378 .381 .759 47
Actual Tot 285 69 14 0 8 59 39 1 67 0 87 2 2 .242 .384 .375 .759 48
Becker began the season as the starting CF, but the A's apparently wanted
more power and better defense out of the position, so they released him
in early May and brought up Long. Although Long is a better all-around
player with more upside, Becker was more qualified to bat leadoff, which
at the time made the decision seem a little odd given Long's inexperience.
But the point is moot now with Damon aboard to lead off, so it's clear
that Oakland made the right decision. Becker was more effective with the
Tigers and is currently in camp with the Marlins.
Terrence Long, cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 69 18 3 1 1 8 9 0 6 1 11 3 1 .261 .320 .377 .697 8
Prorated Oak 581 151 25 8 8 67 76 0 50 8 93 25 8 .261 .320 .377 .697 68
Actual Oak 584 168 34 4 18 104 80 1 43 1 77 5 0 .288 .336 .452 .788 86
Long got off to a hot start at Triple-A (.400 with 9 extra-base hits
in his 60 atbats) so the A's called him up on April 24th and immediately
plugged him in as the starting CF. After a shaky first game in which he
dropped a fly ball, Long exploded for three hits (including his first
major-league homerun) and three RBI in his second game. He continued his
hot streak through his first 15 games, batting .323 with 16 RBI, before
calming down significantly during the second half of May and beginning
of June. But things eventually picked back up, and Long finished the season
with more doubles and homeruns than he ever hit it any minor league season.
In the field, he displayed very good range and an equally effective arm.
It remains to be seen whether Long will be able to improve upon or even
maintain his offensive output, but the Damon acquisition will move Long
back further in the order where his power is better suited.
Matt Stairs, rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 546 153 30 2 35 94 106 4 83 4 114 3 4 .280 .378 .535 .913 113
Prorated Oak 483 135 27 2 31 83 94 4 73 4 101 3 4 .280 .378 .535 .913 100
Actual Oak 476 108 26 0 21 74 81 1 78 4 122 5 2 .227 .333 .414 .747 71
It was a bad omen when Stairs admitted at the beginning of the season
that he was out of shape compared to the previous year. Considering he
has always been built like a keg-league softball player, it was scary
to imagine him being in worse physical condition, especially since he's
been bothered by a sore knee (torn cartilage) for the last three years.
Stairs slugged under .500 for the first time since coming to Oakland in
1996 and hit 54 points below his career batting average as an Athletic.
There's no doubt that Oakland was not happy with his poor preparation,
below-average fielding, and offensive production that ranked him as one
of the worst everyday right fielders in the league. Stairs will be with
the Cubs in 2001, where he may see significant time at first base due
to the absence of Mark Grace.
Jeremy Giambi, rf/1b/lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 90 26 5 0 3 14 14 1 14 1 19 0 1 .289 .387 .444 .831 16
Prorated Oak 256 74 14 0 9 40 40 3 40 3 54 0 3 .289 .387 .444 .831 45
Actual Oak 260 66 10 2 10 42 50 3 32 2 61 0 0 .254 .338 .423 .761 38
Stairs' departure will open the door for Jason's younger brother to receive
more playing time in right, but Jeremy may be as bad or worse than Stairs
defensively. There are high expectations for Giambi, who displayed very
good power and a great batting eye in the minors while compiling a career
.332 batting average, but he has yet to come close to that production
in his brief time at the major league level. To his credit, Giambi has
walked at an above-average rate, but his career big-league slugging percentage
is 164 points lower than his minor-league figure. Currently, the A's plan
to go with a platoon of Giambi and Adam Piatt in right field.
Adam Piatt, rf/3b/lf/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 63 16 4 0 3 13 13 1 10 1 12 1 0 .254 .360 .460 .820 11
Prorated Oak 153 39 10 0 7 32 32 2 24 2 29 2 0 .254 .360 .460 .820 26
Actual Oak 157 47 5 5 5 24 23 1 23 0 44 0 1 .299 .392 .490 .883 32
Piatt's 39 dingers and .700+ slugging percentage at Double-A earned him
Baseball Weekly's 1999 Minor League Player of the Year honors and consideration
as a top prospect in Oakland's talent-rich organization. In 2000, his
production dropped significantly at Triple-A, but his potential was still
good enough to earn a couple of callups early in the season before sticking
with the big club after the break. Using Piatt in a platoon role may be
beneficial for both his and the younger Giambi's development and for maximum
production out of right field -- Piatt knocked lefties around at a .369
clip and hit all five of his homeruns off southpaws in only 84 atbats.
The A's will suffer defensively with both members of the platoon team,
but the upgrade in left field (Damon) allows Oakland to take a chance
in right.
John Jaha, dh, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 550 141 23 0 34 98 116 11 113 3 152 2 0 .256 .391 .484 .875 110
Prorated Oak 108 28 5 0 7 19 23 2 22 1 30 0 0 .256 .391 .484 .875 22
Actual Oak 97 17 1 0 1 14 5 3 33 0 38 1 0 .175 .398 .216 .615 11
Coming off an All-Star season, the A's were looking for a repeat performance
from the veteran, but his left shoulder was never healthy and Jaha was
forced to shut it down in July when doctors revealed a torn rotator cuff
that required surgery. Oakland will receive a huge boost if Jaha is able
to return to his 1999 form, but Valdez and Olmedo Saenz are ready to step
in should that not happen.
Olmedo Saenz, dh/3b/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Oak 213 57 11 0 9 33 35 10 19 1 31 1 1 .268 .351 .446 .797 34
Prorated Oak 215 57 11 0 9 33 35 10 19 1 31 1 1 .268 .351 .446 .797 34
Actual Oak 214 67 12 2 9 40 33 7 25 2 40 1 0 .313 .401 .514 .915 45
Saenz became a more consistent hitter compared to his rookie season of
1999, but it may be time to abandon the thought of platooning him with
Chavez at third. Defensively, Saenz may be adequate at first base, but
his future is most likely as a DH because he doesn't have many other skills
besides his bat. But his bat is potent -- he was the only other Athletic
to have an OPS over .900 besides Jason Giambi. Saenz missed August and
more than half of September because of a pulled hamstring, but he can
expect to get at least a share of the atbats at DH and occasionally stand
in for Giambi at first this year.
Key Pitchers
Entering the season, the A's hoped a full season with Kevin Appier, Tim
Hudson, and Omar Olivares in the rotation and Jason Isringhausen as closer
would improve upon a team ERA that ranked third in 1999. Although Olivares
suffered through arm problems and was ineffective, Hudson turned out a
performance worthy of being runner up in the Cy Young Award voting, Gil
Heredia was consistently solid, and young Barry Zito was impressive. Oakland's
rotation led the league in quality starts and had the third-best ERA.
The bullpen remained a weak link, but Jeff Tam proved to be a valuable
late-inning reliever, the deadline deal for Jim Mecir added much-needed
depth, and Isringhausen was an improvement at closer from the previous
year.
Overall, the Oakland staff put an average number of runners on base but
minimized the damage by surrendering the fewest gopher balls in the league.
The end result was 33 fewer runs allowed than in 1999 and an improved
team ERA good enough for third-best in the AL.
Kevin Appier, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.01 32 32 12 12 0 205 223 28 78 142 .279 .798
Prorated Oak 5.01 32 32 12 12 0 202 220 28 77 140 .279 .798
Actual Oak 4.52 31 31 15 11 0 195 200 23 102 129 .262 .775
Appier should thank the Oakland hitters for helping him land a 4-year,
$42 million contract with the Mets. They gave him more than seven runs
per nine innings to work with, allowing him to win 15 games despite an
ERA that wasn't much better than the league average. To his credit, Appier
held opponents to a lower batting average and less power than expected,
but he had unusually shaky control and led the league in walks allowed.
Left-handed batters teed off on him more than usual this year and he fared
significantly better at home (3.84 ERA) than on the road (5.30).
Though he is past his prime, Appier has been a workhorse, missing the
200 inning mark (by only five innings) for only the second time since
1991 (not including the strike-shortened 1994 season). New York dished
out a lot of cash for a slightly above-average starter because of the
pressure to replace Mike Hampton, and they're hoping that Appier continues
the steady improvement that he has shown since shoulder surgery wiped
out his 1998 season.
Tim Hudson, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.17 32 32 13 10 0 207 202 19 96 192 .259 .736
Prorated Oak 4.17 30 30 12 9 0 196 191 18 91 182 .259 .736
Actual Oak 4.14 32 32 20 6 0 202 169 24 82 169 .227 .680
After his very encouraging debut in 1999 (11-2, 3.23 ERA), Oakland looked
forward to a full season of Hudson in their rotation. He didn't disappoint
and at age 24 became the ace of the staff and one of the league's best
starters. Although his ERA was good enough to place him in the AL's top
10, Hudson's stats were actually more indicative of a pitcher with an
ERA in the 3.45 range. Of course, getting more run support than Appier
helped him lead the majors in winning percentage and be one of only four
pitchers in baseball to win 20 games.
Hudson opened the season with a brilliant performance against Detroit
(7 innings, 1 hit) but followed that with three shaky starts (0-2, 15.00).
He quickly calmed down and won his next nine decisions (1.44 ERA) before
getting into a little more trouble in late July and August. When it counted,
Hudson came up huge, winning his last seven starts (1.16), including eight
innings of shutout ball in the division-clinching victory on the season's
final day.
Omar Olivares, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.98 32 32 12 12 0 202 223 22 89 103 .284 .797
Prorated Oak 4.98 18 18 7 7 0 115 126 12 50 58 .284 .797
Actual Oak 6.75 21 16 4 8 0 108 134 10 60 57 .309 .840
The eleven-year veteran was coming off a season in which he threw more
than 200 innings for the first time and won a career-high 15 games, but
he got off to a mediocre start and things only got worse. During a span
of seven starts, Olivares went 0-5 with an 8.47 ERA and only faced one
batter on June 16th before he was overcome by shoulder pain. His strained
right shoulder landed him on the DL until mid-August. Upon his return,
Olivares continued to be ineffective and never pitched more than five
innings in any of his remaining seven appearances. In 2001, he will battle
Cory Lidle and Mark Guthrie for the 5th spot in the Oakland rotation.
Gil Heredia, starter, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.14 32 32 10 12 0 194 231 26 39 119 .298 .809
Prorated Oak 5.14 33 33 10 12 0 201 239 27 40 123 .298 .809
Actual Oak 4.12 32 32 15 11 0 199 214 24 66 101 .274 .770
Heredia got better with age, winning a career-high 15 games and finishing
with the 7th lowest ERA in the league. He also was one of only six AL
pitchers to make 20 quality starts, placing himself in a group that includes
Pedro, Clemens, and Mussina. Heredia found his groove at the end of April
and won seven of eight starts while compiling a 3.08 ERA during that time.
He was up and down the rest of the way but consistent enough to post solid
overall numbers. Heredia isn't much better than league average and doesn't
have impressive stuff, but he induces a lot of ground balls and doesn't
allow many big innings.
Ron Mahay, long reliever/starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.33 27 27 5 16 0 155 170 25 74 104 .277 .813
Prorated Oak 5.33 3 3 1 2 0 18 20 3 9 12 .277 .813
Actual Oak 9.00 5 2 0 1 0 16 26 4 9 5 .366 1.066
Prorated Flo 5.33 5 5 1 3 0 26 28 4 12 17 .277 .813
Actual Flo 6.04 18 0 1 0 0 25 31 6 16 27 .310 1.002
Prorated Tot 5.33 8 8 1 5 0 44 48 7 21 29 .277 .813
Actual Tot 7.19 23 2 1 1 0 41 57 10 25 32 .333 1.028
Oakland's experiment with Mahay as their 5th starter lasted only two
poor starts and his bullpen duty was almost as short-lived. They rotation
spot was filled by Mark Mulder and Mahay was sent to Florida for cash.
As a Marlin, he was just as bad in relief and couldn't keep his job. He
is in camp with San Diego this spring.
Mark Mulder, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 6.95 4 4 1 2 0 22 31 4 8 12 .333 .937
Prorated Oak 6.95 27 27 7 14 0 149 210 27 54 81 .333 .937
Actual Oak 5.44 27 27 9 10 0 154 191 22 69 88 .308 .862
Oakland fans shouldn't get too excited about Mulder. He has yet to be
even average in his brief professional career, failing to hold batters
to a sub-.300 batting average at both AAA and the majors. In his first
season in the majors, left-handed hitters torched the southpaw for a .368
average, and he was especially bad on the road (3-7, 6.86 ERA). Mulder's
underlying numbers suggest he was even worse than his 5.44 ERA indicates
-- his stats are more consistent with an ERA in the 6.15 range. But he
enters this season at age 23, so there is plenty of time for him to develop
if the A's and their fans are patient.
Barry Zito, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Oak 2.72 14 14 7 4 0 93 64 6 45 78 .195 .607
Oakland's 1999 first-round pick moved quickly up the ladder, pitching
at Single-, Double-, and Triple-A in 1999 and then making his major-league
debut a year later. Unlike Mulder, Zito was good in the minors and very
impressive in the big leagues. Eleven of his fourteen starts were quality
starts (79% which would have been good enough for second in the league
behind Pedro), and he came up big down the stretch, winning five of his
six September starts with a 1.73 ERA. Perhaps the biggest knock on his
game is that at every level, he has consistently walked around 4.5 batters
per nine innings, mostly because he struggles to throw his big-breaking
curve for a strike. When he can throw it for strikes, he's almost unhittable;
when it's bouncing in the dirt, he winds up pitching behind in the count
too much. Still, Zito is even younger than Mulder and already appears
to be for real.
Ariel Prieto, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 6.10 4 4 1 2 0 21 25 3 10 17 .301 .861
Prorated Oak 6.10 6 6 2 3 0 32 39 5 15 26 .301 .861
Actual Oak 5.12 8 6 1 2 0 32 42 3 13 19 .321 .826
Prieto made only two appearances in 1998 and missed all of 1999 due to
elbow and shoulder problems. With a surgically-reconstructed arm, he pitched
well in winter ball, and Oakland was optimistic that he would contribute
in 2000. Prieto joined the team in May and made six starts spread throughout
the season but only made it into the sixth inning once. The A's released
him in January and he signed a minor league contract a month later with
Cleveland, where he may get a chance to start if Jaret Wright and Charles
Nagy are unable to return from their injuries.
Scott Service, long reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.70 40 0 3 3 0 54 56 7 24 55 .269 .795
Prorated Oak 4.70 29 0 2 2 0 38 40 5 17 39 .269 .795
Actual Oak 6.38 20 0 1 2 1 37 45 5 19 35 .302 .870
Service has been very inconsistent throughout his 10-year career, and
that explains why Oakland was his seventh different team in that time.
A second straight year with a 6+ ERA caused him to lose yet another job,
and this spring, he will try to add the Dodgers to his ever-growing list
of employers. Service was pathetic at home, putting two men on base per
inning but pitched better against lefties than in the past, holding them
to a .373 slugging percentage. Still, his poor performance resulted in
several demotions and recalls throughout the season and by far his fewest
appearances in three years.
Luis Vizcaino, long reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 7.74 23 0 1 3 0 43 57 10 26 29 .322 .967
Prorated Oak 7.74 11 0 0 1 0 20 26 5 12 13 .322 .967
Actual Oak 7.45 12 0 0 1 0 19 25 2 11 18 .305 .823
The A's like his heater and slider, but the young Dominican has yet to
prove he deserves to be in the big leagues. Vizcaino has a career 5.53
ERA at Double-A and 4.26 at Triple-A and has yet to allow fewer hits than
innings pitched at those levels. Despite his improvement after moving
up one level, Vizcaino may be a couple years away from contributing to
a major league team.
Doug Jones, middle reliever, age 43
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.20 53 0 4 3 0 75 81 10 19 56 .276 .763
Prorated Oak 4.20 53 0 4 3 0 75 81 10 19 56 .276 .763
Actual Oak 3.93 54 0 4 2 2 73 86 6 18 54 .292 .762
The game's second oldest player (Jesse Orosco is two months older) produced
almost the exact same results that were projected but went about it in
a slightly different way -- he allowed a few more hits but did a better
job of keeping the ball in the park. Jones was especially good in the
second half, posting a 2.67 ERA and allowing only one homerun after the
break. He recently retired after 16 major league seasons. In that time,
Jones compiled 303 saves, good enough for 12th among all-time leaders.
T.J. Mathews, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 3.75 70 0 6 3 3 98 93 12 37 74 .250 .727
Prorated Oak 3.75 46 0 4 2 2 64 60 8 24 48 .250 .727
Actual Oak 6.03 50 0 2 3 0 60 73 10 25 42 .303 .857
Mathews had by far his worst season ever, posting an ERA almost a run
and a half higher than his second worst. Maybe his sore elbow was bothering
him more than he led on because he didn't fool anyone -- he allowed batters
to hit for their highest average against him and surrendered gopher balls
at a career-high rate. Mathews has always pitched better in Oakland, a
park favorable to pitchers, and this year, that was particularly the case
as his home ERA was more than four runs better than on the road (3.67/7.99).
In 2001, the A's hope he can perform closer to his career norms as a middle
reliever.
Mike Magnante, lefty specialist, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.09 70 0 6 4 1 95 104 5 40 63 .282 .748
Prorated Oak 4.09 32 0 3 2 0 43 47 2 18 28 .282 .748
Actual Oak 4.31 55 0 1 1 0 40 50 3 19 17 .311 .819
Playing for his third team in three years, Magnante had one of his worst
seasons ever as he allowed batters to hit over .300 against him for the
first time since 1992. His ERA doesn't accurately reflect how disappointing
his season was because his stats are more consistent with an ERA more
than a run higher (around the 5.50 range). The lefty specialist fared
better against left-handed batters but still allowed them to hit 45 points
higher than their batting average against him in the last five years.
This season, Magnante remains in the Oakland pen, but at 36, he's running
out of time to prove his worth.
Jeff Tam, setup man, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 4.43 30 0 2 2 0 43 45 6 11 24 .273 .773
Prorated Oak 4.43 59 0 4 4 0 83 88 12 21 47 .273 .773
Actual Oak 2.63 72 0 3 3 3 86 86 3 23 46 .268 .680
After two brief and unimpressive stints with the Indians and Mets, Tam
became one of the league's most consistent setup men and finished in the
top 10 for appearances and holds. In his 26 innings prior to last season,
he surrendered five homeruns, but as an Athletic, Tam settled down and
remarkably allowed two fewer dingers in more than three times as many
innings. An average pitcher would have allowed 11 homers in the same number
of innings, but the extreme groundball pitcher didn't give many batters
a chance to get under his pitches. Tam completely dominated right-handed
batters (.526 OPS) but couldn't figure out lefties who knocked him around
at a .360 clip. Now that they'll have Jim Mecir for an entire season,
the A's may be better off using Tam as more of a 6th or 7th inning reliever.
Jim Mecir, setup man, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 3.09 70 0 6 3 3 99 86 8 45 85 .236 .683
Prorated Tam 3.09 33 0 3 1 1 47 41 4 21 40 .236 .683
Actual Tam 3.08 38 0 7 2 1 50 35 2 22 33 .201 .540
Prorated Oak 3.09 26 0 2 1 1 36 31 3 16 31 .236 .683
Actual Oak 2.80 25 0 3 1 4 35 35 2 14 37 .255 .677
Prorated Tot 3.09 59 0 5 3 3 83 72 7 38 71 .236 .683
Actual Tot 2.96 63 0 10 3 5 85 70 4 36 70 .225 .600
In 1999, Mecir continued his success with Tampa Bay before his season
was cut short by a freak accident -- he tripped in the outfield during
batting practice and broke his elbow. He returned in 2000 and despite
a disabling biceps strain in late April, Mecir established himself as
one of the league's best setup men. Desperate to strengthen a thin bullpen,
the A's sacrificed a top pitching prospect (Jesus Colome) to acquire Mecir
at the deadline. In his new uniform, Mecir performed closer to expectations
and proved he is most valuable in a setup role and not a closer -- he
blew 8 of 13 save attempts, and only five AL pitchers blew more. Overall,
he recorded his highest innings total and finished with the league's 5th
highest holds total (21).
Jason Isringhausen, closer, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Oak 5.02 70 0 4 4 21 72 71 10 35 58 .260 .784
Prorated Oak 5.02 68 0 4 4 20 69 69 10 34 56 .260 .784
Actual Oak 3.78 66 0 6 4 33 69 67 6 32 57 .252 .687
Once a top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, Izzy suffered
through a series of bizarre injuries (a busted hand after punching a trash
can, tuberculosis, and a stab wound to the leg in an attempt to open a
package) before coming over to the A's in 1999. The Oakland coaches determined
he lacked the arm strength to be a starter, so they moved him to the pen
where he finished out the 1999 season a perfect nine for nine in save
opportunities.
Last year, in his first full season as the closer, Isringhausen was up
and down, and his 83% save percentage placed him in the middle of the
pack among AL closers. He struggled in July and August (4 blown saves
in 11 opportunities, 6.00 ERA), but was a big part of the team's September
success, converting all seven of his save opportunities and posting a
1.59 ERA. The A's will look for more consistency out of Isringhausen in
2001.
Outlook
Beane's window to win it all is much smaller than teams in bigger markets.
Soon, Oakland's young and inexpensive talent will attain arbitration rights
and even worse, free agency which will turn them into high-priced stars
overnight. Perhaps Beane is feeling the window closing, so he took a chance
during the off-season by acquiring sparkplug Johnny Damon who becomes
a free agent at the end of the season. Damon is a very good all-around
player who provides a huge defensive upgrade over Grieve in left field
and brings speed to the top of their order -- as a team, Oakland stole
only four more bases than Damon in 2000.
A lot of people are predicting that the A's will go to the World Series
this year, but I refuse to jump on the bandwagon because of one trade.
Like many AL teams that figure to be in the playoff hunt, the A's have
lots of questions. Are Ortiz, Piatt, and Jeremy Giambi ready for their
new roles? Is Jaha healthy? Will Chavez, among others, learn to hit southpaws
and help the team improve upon its 21-26 record versus left-handed pitching?
Will they find a viable 5th starter from the Guthrie/Lidle/Olivares group?
Having Zito and Mecir for a full season should help their pitching, but
Mulder needs to be much better and the bullpen needs Mathews or Chad Bradford
to step up and add depth.
This year's unbalanced schedule forces Oakland to play more games against
division foes who are much more competitive than several teams they will
see less of -- the Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals, and Twins. Seattle may
be worse than last season due to the loss of A-Rod but Texas and Anaheim
will have powerful lineups. The good news for the A's is that last year,
they were the only team in the West with a winning record (22-16) against
their fellow division members.
While it remains to be seen whether the offense will be better, Beane
made a valiant effort to fix their weaknesses by improving their speed,
defense, and bullpen depth, and the Athletics have a good chance of repeating
as division champs in 2001.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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