2000 Post-Season Review -- Philadelphia Phillies
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
February 28, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Philadelphia Phillies performed
in the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview
of the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 800 708
Runs allowed 778 830
Run Margin +22 -122
Wins 83 65
Pythagorean wins 83 68
Placement 3rd 5th
The year 2000 turned out completely differently for the Phillies than
what had been forecast by many pundits who saw them as a team on the rise.
Instead of continuing the modest improvement that the club had seen since
its nadir in 1996, Phillies' fans endured a complete collapse that saw
their hometown nine finish tied for the worst record in baseball.
How bad were things at the Vet last year? The 2000 season was so bad
that Philadelphia finished three games worse than it did in '97--thus
ingloriously ending the rebuilding effort launched by former GM Lee Thomas
and rookie manager Terry Francona four overly-optimistic years ago.
The last-place finish cost Francona his job. His replacement is Larry
Bowa, one of the signature players from the beloved 1970s and 1980s Phillies.
Bowa was an unmitigated disaster in his first stint as a big-league manager
in the late 1980s in San Diego. However, in a desperate attempt to rekindle
some excitement among the team's dwindling fan base, one of the heroes
of the franchise's only World Championship squad was brought back to kick
ass and take names.
Whether Bowa's (fire)brand of leadership will prove any more effective
in the long run than Francona's friendly, low-key style is anyone's guess.
Key Position Players
The Phightin' Phils were definitely offensive to their fans in 2000,
if not to opposing pitchers. Philadelphia's hitters plated a pathetic
708 runs, worst in the majors and almost a hundred below projections.
The team's offense was above the NL average at only three positions,
third base and right field being the obvious. Obviously, the list of suspects
in the 2000 Philadelphia lineup was longer than the FBI's Most Wanted
list. (The only other position at which the Phils outhit the league? Pitcher!)
Mike Lieberthal, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 492 142 30 2 26 77 88 9 43 4 74 0 1 .289 .352 .516 .868 89
Prorated Phi 390 113 24 2 21 61 70 7 34 3 59 0 1 .289 .352 .516 .868 71
Actual Phi 389 108 30 0 15 55 71 6 40 3 53 2 0 .278 .352 .470 .822 64
Lieberthal is a quality offensive and defensive player when he is healthy.
Unfortunately, fitness is a concern. After missing 75 games in 1998, he
was disabled twice last year, missing five weeks with a sprained ankle
and a bone spur in his throwing elbow. He slumped against righties in
2000 (.259, 11 HR in 309 at-bats), which explains his decline; Lieberthal
did fine with southpaws (.350 in 80 at-bats). Behind the dish Lieberthal
tossed out 35% of enemy base thieves, an above-average total. Phillies
pitchers like throwing to him; he is agile and presents a good target.
Gary Bennett, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 93 23 4 0 2 9 14 1 7 0 13 0 0 .247 .304 .355 .659 9
Prorated Phi 81 20 3 0 2 8 12 1 6 0 11 0 0 .247 .304 .355 .659 8
Actual Phi 74 18 5 0 2 8 5 2 13 0 15 0 0 .243 .371 .392 .763 12
Bennett is a reasonable backup receiver who has substantially improved
his hitting ability. He threw out six of 25 base stealers last year and
picked another off first.
Tom Prince, c, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 67 14 3 0 1 9 7 1 6 0 14 0 0 .209 .284 .299 .582 6
Prorated Phi 125 26 6 0 2 17 13 2 11 0 26 0 0 .209 .284 .299 .582 11
Actual Phi 122 29 9 0 2 14 16 2 13 0 31 1 0 .238 .321 .361 .682 14
It seems that Prince has been around forever; he is a consistent but
unspectacular catch-and-throw guy. He has inked a deal with the Twins
for 2001 and should give some stability to a young catching corps.
Rico Brogna, 1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 604 159 34 3 19 82 96 1 52 7 121 8 4 .263 .320 .424 .744 80
Prorated Phi 127 33 7 1 4 17 20 0 11 1 25 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 17
Actual Phi 129 32 14 0 1 12 13 2 7 1 28 1 0 .248 .295 .380 .675 14
Prorated Bos 55 14 3 0 2 7 9 0 5 1 11 1 0 .263 .320 .424 .744 7
Actual Bos 56 11 3 0 1 8 8 0 3 0 13 0 0 .196 .237 .304 .541 4
Prorated Tot 182 48 10 1 6 25 29 0 16 2 36 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 24
Actual Tot 185 43 17 0 2 20 21 2 10 1 41 1 0 .232 .278 .357 .635 18
Even at his best, Brogna's offense was just barely good enough to help
him survive as a regular at a power position. His precipitous decline
was a surprise only in its suddenness. The popular Brogna slumped badly
last year in Philly, lost his job, and was waived to Boston, where he
was even less effective. After the season, Atlanta signed him to replace
Andres Galarraga (who is now with Texas) at first base.
Pat Burrell, 1b/lf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 98 28 6 1 5 17 18 0 14 1 22 1 1 .286 .375 .520 .895 19
Prorated Phi 415 119 25 4 21 72 76 0 59 4 93 4 4 .286 .375 .520 .895 79
Actual Phi 408 106 27 1 18 57 79 1 63 2 139 0 0 .260 .359 .463 .822 72
While Burrell didn't play up to expectations in his rookie season, he
did show promise. Once the Phillies called him up from Triple-A in late
May, it was inevitable that Burrell would get the majority of the playing
time at first base rather than Rico Brogna. However, Burrell was impatient
at bat and had more trouble making contact than was anticipated, especially
on breaking balls. A more contact-oriented approach will serve him well
in the future.
If Burrell remains at first base, he should develop into a good enough
fielder to help the team. After Travis Lee was acquired, though, Burrell
spent an unfortunate 48 games in left field, showing poor range and hands.
It is long past the time that the organization make up its mind where
Pat "The Bat" will play. Though he will never have a gilded glove at any
position, moving him from third base to first base to left field to first
base to left field, as the Phillies have done since they drafted him,
is risking retarding his development as a hitter.
If the team has any hope of developing into a bona fide contender, it
absolutely must have a bona fide bopper in the middle of the lineup. Such
power bats are not easy to find, and Burrell is possibly the biggest non-pitching
piece of the puzzle left to fit into the Phillies' projected lineup. While
other gaping holes obviously remain to be filled on the team, a middle
of the order featuring Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, and a 35-40-HR Burrell
could well be the foundation of a renaissance in South Philly.
Travis Lee, 1b/lf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Ari 387 102 15 1 15 59 56 1 58 4 72 10 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 62
Prorated Ari 216 57 8 1 8 33 31 1 32 2 40 6 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 35
Actual Ari 224 52 13 0 8 34 40 0 25 1 46 5 1 .232 .308 .397 .705 28
Prorated Phi 193 51 7 0 7 29 28 0 29 2 36 5 0 .264 .360 .424 .784 31
Actual Phi 180 43 11 1 1 19 14 2 40 0 33 3 0 .239 .381 .328 .709 26
Prorated Tot 410 108 16 1 16 62 59 1 61 4 76 11 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 65
Actual Tot 404 95 24 1 9 53 54 2 65 1 79 8 1 .235 .342 .366 .709 54
Lee washed out with Arizona, not only due to his performance, but also
reportedly due to a lackadaisical attitude. Traded to Philadelphia in
late July, he hit very poorly yet pushed Pat Burrell back into left field.
While Lee is a good defensive first baseman with some speed, he has not
shown that he can turn his physical gifts into production.
A positive sign for 2001 is that Lee spent the winter working on hitting
with veteran coach/instructor Jim Lefebvre in order to get his game back
on track. While dedicated instruction can't hurt Lee, there is obviously
more going on here than a simple problem hitting the curve ball.
Brian Hunter, 1b/lf/rf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Atl 65 15 4 0 2 9 10 1 7 0 12 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 8
Prorated Atl 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 0
Actual Atl 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 2.000 2.500 2
Prorated Phi 137 32 8 0 4 19 21 2 15 0 25 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 17
Actual Phi 138 29 5 0 7 13 22 0 20 1 39 0 1 .210 .310 .399 .709 17
Prorated Tot 139 32 9 0 4 19 21 2 15 0 26 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 17
Actual Tot 140 30 5 0 8 14 23 0 20 1 39 0 1 .214 .313 .421 .734 19
The Phillies claimed the veteran off waivers from the Braves on April
21. Filling in at first and pinch-hitting nearly 50 times, Hunter did
what was expected of him -- hit for a low average with some pop. He has
legitimate home-run power and understands his role, but must do better
against lefties (.217 in 2000). Hunter can stick around if he doesn't
lose more mobility; he is heavier than he once was, but showed surprisingly
good range at first base for the second year in a row.
Mickey Morandini, 2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 490 131 21 3 6 71 43 6 55 2 70 8 4 .267 .347 .359 .706 64
Prorated Phi 299 80 13 2 4 43 26 4 34 1 43 5 2 .267 .347 .359 .706 39
Actual Phi 302 76 13 3 0 31 22 4 29 1 54 5 2 .252 .324 .315 .639 31
Prorated Tor 102 27 4 1 1 15 9 1 11 0 15 2 1 .267 .347 .359 .706 13
Actual Tor 107 29 2 1 0 10 7 0 7 0 23 1 0 .271 .316 .308 .624 11
Prorated Tot 401 107 17 2 5 58 35 5 45 2 57 7 3 .267 .347 .359 .706 52
Actual Tot 409 105 15 4 0 41 29 4 36 1 77 6 2 .257 .322 .313 .635 41
When the Phillies decided that Marlon Anderson wasn't their guy at second,
they gave the job to Morandini, who showed conclusively that both his
offensive and defensive skills had eroded well past the point of usefulness.
If Morandini could play other positions, he might have some value as a
utility player, but he can only play 2B and 11-pitcher big-league rosters
no longer have any room for one-position reserves who can't hit. The Blue
Jays acquired him on August 6.
Kevin Jordan, 2b/3b/1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 70 20 4 0 1 8 10 1 4 0 8 0 0 .286 .333 .386 .719 9
Prorated Phi 334 95 19 0 5 38 48 5 19 0 38 0 0 .286 .333 .386 .719 41
Actual Phi 337 74 16 2 5 30 36 1 17 0 41 0 1 .220 .257 .323 .580 26
The Phillies' inability to find a regular second baseman, and the injury
to Scott Rolen, meant that Jordan played often in 2000. After three years
of hitting .266-.285 with a bit of power, however, Jordan slumped. His
strikeout and walk numbers, which were never that good anyway, got worse,
and he showed below-par range at both second and third base. Jordan remains
somewhat valuable as a multi-position reserve, but he will hurt the team
like he did in 2001 if he is overexposed again.
Marlon Anderson, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 71 19 4 1 1 9 8 0 3 0 9 2 1 .268 .297 .394 .692 8
Prorated Phi 165 44 9 2 2 21 19 0 7 0 21 5 2 .268 .297 .394 .692 19
Actual Phi 162 37 8 1 1 10 15 0 12 0 22 2 2 .228 .282 .309 .590 13
Following a mediocre 1999 rookie season, Anderson believed that the second
base was his last spring. Informed that he would have to actually win
the job, Anderson hit .364 in spring training but was still optioned back
to Triple-A due to his attytood (that's the way it's pronounced in South
Philadelphia) and to his shaky fielding. He hit .305 in 103 games at Scranton,
but performed poorly when recalled to Philadelphia on August 6. Hitting
badly and unwilling or unable -- or both -- to take the necessary walks
to prosper as a leadoff hitter, Anderson couldn't use his speed, one of
his key tools, to any advantage.
Defensively, Anderson has a good reputation and decent hands, but showed
sub-par range last season. Let's see...a weak bat, below-average defense,
and a questionable attitude...and this guy was considered one of the Phillies'
best prospects?
David Newhan, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 70 15 3 0 2 9 7 0 5 0 15 3 1 .214 .267 .343 .610 6
Prorated SD 24 5 1 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 5 1 0 .214 .267 .343 .610 2
Actual SD 20 3 1 0 1 5 2 0 6 1 7 0 0 .150 .346 .350 .696 3
Prorated Phi 18 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 4 1 0 .214 .267 .343 .610 2
Actual Phi 17 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 .176 .263 .176 .440 1
Prorated Tot 42 9 2 0 1 5 4 0 3 0 9 2 1 .214 .267 .343 .610 4
Actual Tot 37 6 1 0 1 8 2 0 8 1 13 0 0 .162 .311 .270 .581 3
The son of Los Angeles sportswriter Ross Newhan got in some playing time
in 2000 without distinguishing himself. He came over to the Phillies in
an August trade for Desi Relaford. Newhan is a utiltity player on a club
packed to overflowing with utility guys.
Scott Rolen, 3b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 552 158 38 2 31 106 103 7 83 3 125 14 4 .286 .383 .531 .914 118
Prorated Phi 461 132 32 2 26 88 86 6 69 3 104 12 3 .286 .383 .531 .914 98
Actual Phi 483 144 32 6 26 88 89 5 51 9 99 8 1 .298 .370 .551 .920 102
Back, ankle, and wrist injuries held down his playing time in 2000, but
it was still a good season for "The Franchise." Rolen walked less than
expected, but also cut his strikeouts, hit for power, showed typical baserunning
smarts, and did an excellent job at third base. Rolen has above-average
hands and great mobility at the hot corner and is the game's best at that
position.
Still, there's an odd feeling that something is missing. One would think
that a player with such talent, instinct, and reflexes would be better.
There is continued talk that Rolen is very unhappy playing for such a
bad team, and that his knees and back suffer tremendously from the poor
turf at Veterans Stadium (though he did bat .327 at home last year). The
club will have a new, softer NeXturf surface in 2001, which should help
Rolen stay healthier and happier. However, if the rest of the team isn't
much better, Rolen might decide to take the free-agent route after 2002
to a competitive franchise rather than sign another long-term deal with
a rudderless franchise.
Desi Relaford, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 529 130 28 4 7 67 57 7 44 3 83 13 7 .246 .310 .353 .663 59
Prorated Phi 279 69 15 2 4 35 30 4 23 2 44 7 4 .246 .310 .353 .663 31
Actual Phi 253 56 12 3 3 29 30 9 48 7 45 5 0 .221 .363 .328 .691 34
Prorated SD 168 41 9 1 2 21 18 2 14 1 26 4 2 .246 .310 .353 .663 19
Actual SD 157 32 2 0 2 26 16 3 27 0 26 8 0 .204 .330 .255 .585 17
Prorated Tot 447 110 24 3 6 57 48 6 37 3 70 11 6 .246 .310 .353 .663 50
Actual Tot 410 88 14 3 5 55 46 12 75 7 71 13 0 .215 .351 .300 .651 50
The Phillies gave Relaford every opportunity to keep the job at shortstop;
the club had few options and wanted a homegrown player to succeed. Unfortunately,
Relaford was so bad that he was dealt to the Padres on August 4. He's
in camp with the Mets this spring.
Alex Arias, ss/3b/2b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 71 21 4 0 1 9 10 1 7 1 7 0 0 .296 .367 .394 .761 10
Prorated Phi 162 48 9 0 2 21 23 2 16 2 16 0 0 .296 .367 .394 .761 23
Actual Phi 155 29 9 0 2 17 15 3 16 2 28 1 0 .187 .271 .284 .555 14
Arias batted just .162 against right-handers in 105 at-bats after bringing
a .286 career mark against them into 2000. His inability to make consistent
contact was also a danger sign; Arias' season began with a 4-for-43 slump
and didn't get much better. Signed by the Padres for 2001, he remains
a good pinch-hitter (.321 lifetime average, .308 last year).
Tomas Perez, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 70 15 3 0 0 6 6 0 4 0 11 0 1 .214 .257 .257 .514 4
Prorated Phi 142 30 6 0 0 12 12 0 8 0 22 0 2 .214 .257 .257 .514 9
Actual Phi 140 31 7 1 1 17 13 0 11 2 30 1 1 .221 .278 .307 .585 12
When Desi Relaford flamed out, Perez got some at-bats at shortstop but
couldn't hold the job.
Jimmy Rollins, ss, age 21
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 69 17 3 1 1 9 6 0 5 0 6 3 1 .246 .297 .362 .660 8
Prorated Phi 51 12 2 1 1 7 4 0 4 0 4 2 1 .246 .297 .362 .660 6
Actual Phi 53 17 1 1 0 5 5 0 2 0 7 3 0 .321 .345 .377 .723 8
The organization's best position-playing prospect may not be ready for
everyday duty, but the Phils might well give him the job anyway. Rollins
is a good contact hitter with line-drive power and speed, but he is still
very young and has experienced some defensive struggles. The fear is that
the Phils may, through their desperation, unintentionally put Rollins
in a position to fail given their lack of options at short. Given the
paucity of legitimate prospects in their organization, the club needs
to place priority on Rollins' development above their desire to fill an
embarrassing hole in their infield.
Ron Gant, lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 525 135 27 3 24 98 83 2 74 1 117 11 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 90
Prorated Phi 334 86 17 2 15 62 53 1 47 1 75 7 1 .257 .350 .457 .807 57
Actual Phi 343 87 16 2 20 54 38 1 36 1 73 5 4 .254 .324 .487 .811 53
Prorated Ana 90 23 5 1 4 17 14 0 13 0 20 2 0 .257 .350 .457 .807 15
Actual Ana 82 19 3 1 6 15 16 0 20 0 18 1 2 .232 .379 .512 .891 17
Prorated Tot 424 109 22 2 19 79 67 2 60 1 94 9 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 72
Actual Tot 425 106 19 3 26 69 54 1 56 1 91 6 6 .249 .335 .492 .827 71
Gant did what the Phillies expected of him, which was to hit home runs.
Traded to Anaheim for Kent Bottenfield on July 30, he continued to hit
with power, though not nearly enough given his low average and on-base.
Despite his reputation defensively, his range in left has been surprisingly
good the past two years. He was signed by Colorado during the winter.
Kevin Sefcik, lf/cf/rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 77 23 5 1 1 11 6 1 10 0 10 2 1 .299 .386 .429 .815 13
Prorated Phi 148 44 10 2 2 21 12 2 19 0 19 4 2 .299 .386 .429 .815 26
Actual Phi 153 36 6 2 0 15 10 2 13 0 19 4 2 .235 .300 .301 .601 14
Sefcik didn't hit well last year, largely because he struggled uncharacteristically
in the second half (.216). The gritty and versatile Sefcik started at
all three outfield positions and pinch-hit 56 times. Strangely, for a
guy who came up as a shortstop, he didn't see action even once at any
infield position in 2000; the Phillies concluded several years ago that
he wasn't useful as a utility infielder. Sefcik is in spring training
with the Rockies.
Rob Ducey, lf/rf/cf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 66 17 5 1 2 9 8 1 8 0 17 1 1 .258 .347 .455 .801 11
Prorated Phi 161 41 12 2 5 22 20 2 20 0 41 2 2 .258 .347 .455 .801 26
Actual Phi 152 30 4 1 6 24 25 0 29 1 47 1 0 .197 .322 .355 .678 20
Prorated Tor 13 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .258 .347 .455 .801 2
Actual Tor 13 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 .154 .267 .231 .497 1
Prorated Tot 174 45 13 3 5 24 21 3 21 0 45 3 3 .258 .347 .455 .801 28
Actual Tot 165 32 5 1 6 26 26 0 31 1 49 1 0 .194 .318 .345 .664 21
Seasons like Ducey's don't look good on the resume of a 35-year-old bench
player. He was traded to Toronto on July 26 and then sent back to Philly
two weeks later in the Morandini trade.
Doug Glanville, cf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 631 195 35 5 11 105 66 6 46 1 76 25 5 .309 .360 .433 .793 102
Prorated Phi 628 194 35 5 11 105 66 6 46 1 76 25 5 .309 .360 .433 .793 102
Actual Phi 637 175 27 6 8 89 52 2 31 1 76 31 8 .275 .307 .374 .681 75
After a very good, and very surprising, 1999 performance, Glanville came
back to earth in 2000. Only an acceptable leadoff hitter if he clears
the .300 mark, Glanville took alarmingly few walks last season and hit
even worse than usual against southpaws, managing just a .237 average
and a pathetic .587 OPS (he is always much more productive against right-handers).
Glanville's speed is still his best asset. He is a very good base stealer
and has been a strong performer in center field, though 2000 was far from
his best year defensively. Glanville made just four errors in 2000 and
threw out nine runners.
Bobby Abreu, rf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 564 175 35 10 17 100 87 2 94 10 120 22 9 .310 .408 .498 .906 120
Prorated Phi 577 179 36 10 17 102 89 2 96 10 123 22 9 .310 .408 .498 .906 123
Actual Phi 576 182 42 10 25 103 79 1 100 9 116 28 8 .316 .416 .554 .970 139
Enjoying his third consecutive .300+ season and continuing to add power
and speed to his game, Abreu ranked among the NL's top ten in several
key categories (doubles, walks, triples, OBP, and outfield assists).
While Abreu slumped against southpaws in 2000, he improved dramatically
against right-handers (1.061 OPS) and played an excellent right field,
showing excellent range and a strong and accurate arm. While Scott Rolen
remains a fan favorite and an All-Star caliber performer, Bob Abreu is
now clearly the best player on the Phillies.
Key Pitchers
Perhaps because preseason expectations for the mound corps were lower
than for the position players, their 11th-place finish in the NL (52 runs
worse than projected) wasn't such a disappointment. The front end of the
rotation, however, was a complete bust, as malcontent ace Curt Schilling
pitched well enough but then forced the team to trade him to Arizona.
No. 2 starter Andy Ashby, the team's most heralded free-agent acquisition
in recent years, also forced the team to trade him, though he didn't have
the courtesy to pitch decently before leaving town.
After the Phils' one-two punch fizzled, it didn't get a lot better. Paul
Byrd, a surprise All-Star in 1999, gamely pitched until his right arm
nearly fell off. Omar Daal, who came aboard the sinking ship in the Schilling
trade, pitched so badly that he almost became the first pitcher in eons
to lose 20 games. Only Bruce Chen, acquired for Ashby, and Robert Person
managed to truly pitch well in red pinstripes, though sophomore Randy
Wolf's progress was encouraging.
The bullpen was a nightmare, with Jeff Brantley creating turmoil in the
clubhouse by demanding to close games even though his fastball couldn't
break a pane of Hollywood special-effects glass. Former first-round pick
Wayne Gomes proved pretty conclusively that he will never be a closer.
Philadelphia was so desperate for relief that it even gave untested Vicente
Padilla, a rookie of uncertain age with a big heater, a chance to prove
himself in the ninth innings.
Curt Schilling, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.64 26 26 13 8 0 190 175 23 51 183 .245 .703
Prorated Phi 3.64 16 16 8 5 0 116 106 14 31 111 .245 .703
Actual Phi 3.91 16 16 6 6 0 113 110 17 32 96 .253 .737
Prorated Ari 3.64 13 13 6 4 0 95 87 11 25 91 .245 .703
Actual Ari 3.69 13 13 5 6 0 98 94 10 13 72 .257 .679
Prorated Tot 3.64 29 29 14 9 0 210 193 25 56 202 .245 .703
Actual Tot 3.81 29 29 11 12 0 210 204 27 45 168 .255 .711
Dealt to the Diamondbacks on July 26, Schilling was at his Jekyll/Hyde
best in 2000. Recovering from December 1999 shoulder surgery, Schilling
started the season slowly and struggled before hitting his stride. After
doing so, he used his potential trade value as a club to beat the team's
front office into submission and grant him his wish to be traded to a
contender. Despite his repeated denials, Schilling had been desperate
to get out of Philadelphia for several years; if the D-backs retrench
as rumored, his unhappy attitude may resurface in the desert despite his
lucrative new contract.
Andy Ashby, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.45 32 32 12 12 0 212 225 27 59 133 .275 .765
Prorated Phi 4.45 16 16 6 6 0 108 114 14 30 68 .275 .765
Actual Phi 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 101 113 17 38 51 .288 .831
Prorated Atl 4.45 15 15 6 6 0 98 103 12 27 61 .275 .765
Actual Atl 4.13 15 15 8 6 0 98 103 12 23 55 .271 .743
Prorated Tot 4.45 31 31 12 12 0 205 218 26 57 129 .275 .765
Actual Tot 4.92 31 31 12 13 0 199 216 29 61 106 .280 .788
Ashby's poor performance was one of the biggest disappointments of the
Phillies' terrible season. They were lucky to dump him on Atlanta for
Bruce Chen and Jimmy Osting on July 12. While Ashby pitched better after
leaving Philly, his days as a top-flight starter are now over. He was
signed by the Dodgers during the winter.
Paul Byrd, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 4.57 32 32 12 12 0 209 210 31 71 123 .263 .775
Prorated Phi 4.57 13 13 5 5 0 86 87 13 29 51 .263 .775
Actual Phi 6.51 17 15 2 9 0 83 89 17 35 53 .271 .874
It is unfair to say that his gaudy 2000 ERA represents Byrd's true level
of ability: his hit, walk, and home run numbers weren't really all that
different from his 1999 performance. After two terrible starts (13 ER
in five innings), he actually pitched some good games. Unfortunately,
he ended up disabled on July 27 with a torn labrum in his right shoulder,
underwent surgery, and missed the rest of the season. Philadelphia re-signed
him to a Triple-A deal in January. He could still be an acceptable fifth
starter if he can recover his arm strength.
Randy Wolf, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.41 32 32 10 12 0 185 207 29 83 155 .283 .830
Prorated Phi 5.41 34 34 11 13 0 197 221 31 89 166 .283 .830
Actual Phi 4.36 32 32 11 9 0 206 210 25 83 160 .269 .789
Wolf led the team in several categories including wins, starts, and innings.
While Wolf often struggled with location, especially against right-handers,
he also developed an above-average changeup that got him plenty of strikeouts.
He needs to continue to develop his cutter to help him get out righties,
who piled up 47 doubles, 24 homers, and an .812 OPS. A refinement in control
of his curve and two-seam fastball could make Wolf an above-average starter,
but it won't happen until he gets more balls on the ground rather than
in the air. With his youth and make-up, however, he should continue to
improve.
Robert Person, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.03 27 27 8 10 0 157 155 27 81 134 .257 .813
Prorated Phi 5.03 29 29 8 11 0 167 164 29 86 142 .257 .813
Actual Phi 3.63 28 28 9 7 0 173 144 13 95 164 .229 .704
Building on the success he enjoyed with the Phillies in '99, Person finished
ninth in the NL in ERA. He set career highs in several categories despite
missing more than a month with a sore shoulder. A huge improvement against
left-handers (.178 average, .590 OPS) was the main reason for Person's
increased effectiveness.
He still struggles to get his pitches over the plate, and probably always
will, but since Person is a hard thrower, his wildness sometimes helps
him keep batters off balance. While he'll never be a rotation anchor due
to a lack of stamina, Person is a valuable starter due to his mix of pitches,
poise, and sometimes overpowering stuff.
Bruce Chen, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Atl 4.61 27 27 8 8 0 160 155 28 73 166 .253 .776
Prorated Atl 4.61 7 7 2 2 0 40 39 7 18 42 .253 .776
Actual Atl 2.50 22 0 4 0 0 40 35 4 19 32 .232 .715
Prorated Phi 4.61 15 15 4 4 0 87 85 15 40 91 .253 .776
Actual Phi 3.63 15 15 3 4 0 94 81 14 27 80 .232 .687
Prorated Tot 4.61 22 22 6 6 0 127 123 22 58 132 .253 .776
Actual Tot 3.29 37 15 7 4 0 134 116 18 46 112 .232 .696
Chen couldn't work his way into the Braves' rotation, landing instead
in an uncomfortable middle relief role. Liberated from the Braves in July,
Chen was immediately pressed into service as a starter. The Phils kept
him on pitch counts, since he hadn't started since the previous year,
and Chen responded well to the challenge of rotation duty.
A big plus was that his control was better than expected: Chen knows
he cannot pitch high in the strike zone and has refined his game as such.
Improvement with the cut fastball could help him get righties out more
effectively and make him into a front-of-the-rotation starter; they slugged
.418 against him last year.
Omar Daal, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 3.91 32 32 15 9 0 212 203 22 78 164 .254 .714
Prorated Ari 3.91 16 16 8 5 0 109 104 11 40 84 .254 .714
Actual Ari 7.22 20 16 2 10 0 96 127 17 42 45 .315 .904
Prorated Phi 3.91 11 11 5 3 0 74 71 8 27 58 .254 .714
Actual Phi 4.69 12 12 2 9 0 71 81 9 30 51 .290 .810
Prorated Tot 3.91 28 28 13 8 0 183 176 19 67 142 .254 .714
Actual Tot 6.14 32 28 4 19 0 167 208 26 72 96 .305 .866
Daal's control deserted him last season, and he was hammered in Phoenix.
While with the D-Backs, he allowed both lefties and righties to hit .315
with power. His command was especially off against right-handers, whom
he had successfully walked a tightrope against in the past. Daal did pitch
better after the July deal to Philadelphia, but oddly, in August, he was
1-5 with a 6.32 ERA despite fanning 30 and walking just 13 in his 36 innings.
Then, in September, he both fanned and walked 14 in 30 innings but went
1-2 with just a 3.00 ERA.
Obviously, there is excellent reason to believe that the league has caught
up with Daal's deception-oriented game, but his September performance
should be enough to get him another chance in the Phils' rotation as the
season begins. What he will do with that is anyone's guess; he's young
enough to rebound, but marginal enough to collapse completely.
Kent Bottenfield, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ana 4.54 32 32 12 12 0 204 209 22 89 146 .266 .763
Prorated Ana 4.54 20 20 8 8 0 130 133 14 57 93 .266 .763
Actual Ana 5.71 21 21 7 8 0 128 144 25 56 75 .285 .850
Prorated Phi 4.54 7 7 3 3 0 44 45 5 19 32 .266 .763
Actual Phi 4.50 8 8 1 2 0 44 41 5 21 31 .240 .711
Prorated Tot 4.54 27 27 10 10 0 174 178 19 76 125 .266 .763
Actual Tot 5.40 29 29 8 10 0 172 185 30 77 106 .274 .815
With the Angels, Bottenfield had unexpected trouble keeping the ball
down, to which his huge home run total attests. He was far more effective
with the Phillies after coming over in the Ron Gant deal July 30. However,
he only pitched twice in September due to injury and has signed with the
Astros for 2001.
Bottenfield struggled against everyone in 2000; lefties hit .304 and
had an .877 OPS, while righties clubbed 17 homers off him in just 324
at-bats. The Cardinals' acquisition of Jim Edmonds from Anaheim for Adam
Kennedy and Bottenfield, a serviceable #4 starter and little more, was
one of the biggest steals of the last ten years.
Cliff Politte, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 7.16 11 0 1 1 0 16 21 3 8 13 .313 .919
Prorated Phi 7.16 36 0 3 3 0 53 68 10 26 42 .313 .919
Actual Phi 3.66 12 8 4 3 0 59 55 8 27 50 .248 .765
Politte had two stints with the Phillies and pitched very well, improving
control on all three of his pitches. He allowed lefties just a .224 average
and one home run, but did allow right-handers to hit him hard (.831 OPS).
More effective as a starter (3.24 ERA) than in relief, Politte will contend
for a rotation job in spring training.
Chris Brock, middle reliever/spot starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.77 6 6 2 3 0 34 41 5 14 24 .297 .847
Prorated Phi 5.77 16 16 5 8 0 89 106 13 36 62 .297 .847
Actual Phi 4.34 63 5 7 8 1 93 85 21 41 69 .239 .801
While Brock isn't pretty to watch, he is useful due to his ability to
work in different roles. After bombing out of the rotation in April, he
settled into middle relief and was far more effective. Brock has only
fair control of his two-seam fastball, which leads to plenty of homers.
Unless he improves his location, Brock won't get back to starting (which
he really wants to do).
Vicente Padilla, middle reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Ari 5.29 19 0 1 1 0 17 21 2 6 10 .309 .854
Prorated Ari 5.29 36 0 2 2 0 32 40 4 11 19 .309 .854
Actual Ari 2.31 27 0 2 1 0 35 32 0 10 30 .242 .582
Prorated Phi 5.29 37 0 2 2 0 33 41 4 12 19 .309 .854
Actual Phi 5.34 28 0 2 6 2 30 40 3 18 21 .328 .921
Prorated Tot 5.29 73 0 4 4 0 65 80 8 23 38 .309 .854
Actual Tot 3.72 55 0 4 7 2 65 72 3 28 51 .283 .747
On balance, Padilla had a very promising season. However, he was much
more effective with Arizona in a protected role than as a setup pitcher
and occasional closer with the Phillies. Following the July 26 trade to
Philly, lefties ripped Padilla at a monstrous .429 clip in 49 at-bats.
While he has a terrific sinking fastball and slider, the reported youngster
(his real age is rumored to be several years older) must either cut his
fastball or develop a change-up or splitter to get lefties out.
Bryan Ward, middle reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 6.23 13 0 1 1 0 17 21 3 7 14 .304 .856
Prorated Phi 6.23 13 0 1 1 0 18 21 3 7 14 .304 .856
Actual Phi 2.33 20 0 0 0 0 19 14 2 8 11 .206 .591
Prorated Ana 6.23 6 0 0 0 0 8 10 1 3 6 .304 .856
Actual Ana 5.63 7 0 0 0 0 8 8 1 2 3 .235 .660
Prorated Tot 6.23 19 0 1 1 0 26 31 4 10 21 .304 .856
Actual Tot 3.29 27 0 0 0 0 27 22 3 10 14 .216 .614
Outrighted to Triple-A on July 31, Ward ended up with Anaheim but did
not distinguish himself. He actually pitched well for the Phillies but
lost out in a roster squeeze after the Curt Schilling deal.
Scott Aldred, middle reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 5.52 30 0 1 2 0 29 37 4 13 19 .311 .876
Prorated Phi 5.52 21 0 1 1 0 21 26 3 9 13 .311 .876
Actual Phi 5.75 23 0 1 3 0 20 23 3 10 21 .284 .794
Disabled on June 7 with a torn left labrum, he did not pitch again. Before
the injury, he allowed lefties to bat .313 in 32 at-bats. Aldred has since
signed with Cleveland.
Jason Boyd, middle reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Mil 4.96 11 0 1 1 0 16 19 3 9 12 .292 .905
Prorated Phi 4.96 23 0 2 2 0 34 40 6 19 25 .292 .905
Actual Phi 6.55 30 0 0 1 0 34 39 2 24 32 .293 .856
The hard-throwing Boyd was disabled for the first month with a sore shoulder.
He pitched well in May, then was racked in a game on June 4 and broke
a bone in his hand punching the dugout bench in frustration. Boyd was
always a long-shot and was not successful when he returned.
Ed Vosberg, middle reliever, age 38
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 5.51 19 0 1 1 0 16 22 2 7 15 .328 .902
Prorated Phi 5.51 27 0 1 1 0 23 31 3 10 21 .328 .902
Actual Phi 4.13 31 0 1 1 0 24 21 4 18 23 .241 .797
The Phillies acquired Vosberg from the Rockies' organization in late
June. He pitched better than usual against right-handers, but struggled
more than usual with lefties. He could hang around in the one-out southpaw
role.
Wayne Gomes, setup man, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.86 53 0 4 6 0 72 71 6 40 55 .261 .733
Prorated Phi 3.86 54 0 4 6 0 74 72 6 41 56 .261 .733
Actual Phi 4.40 65 0 4 6 7 74 72 6 35 49 .262 .743
For several years, the Phillies have hoped that Gomes would evolve into
a power closer. It hasn't happened; Gomes remains plagued by control troubles.
The former first-round pick began 2000 as the closer, but lost the job
by May. Lefties hit .306 against him, and Gomes walked too many hitters
on both sides of the dish. When he falls behind in the count, Gomes can't
use his deceptive hard curve to get strikeouts; he has to use his slower
one, and it gets hit a little too hard a little too often. The most important
pitch for him to throw is strike one.
Jeff Brantley, closer, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 3.96 70 0 4 6 2 73 65 13 36 68 .239 .759
Prorated Phi 3.96 57 0 3 5 2 59 53 11 29 55 .239 .759
Actual Phi 5.86 55 0 2 7 23 55 64 12 29 57 .288 .864
Walking a tightrope with a mid-80s (and sometimes even slower!) fastball
and a good split-finger pitch, Brantley saved 23 games in 28 chances,
converting his first 13. He pitched very, very poorly on the road (0-4,
9.45 ERA, 47 baserunners in 20 innings) but far better at home (3.82 ERA,
42 Ks in 35 innings). The Phillies would much rather have a healthier
and harder-throwing closer, which explains their decision to sign Jose
Mesa and Ricky Bottalico for 2001. Brantley has signed with the Rangers
for 2001 and will endeavor to become part of the committee that could
replace John Wetteland.
Mike Jackson, closer, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Phi 2.55 70 0 5 4 38 78 60 8 27 67 .214 .627
Jackson missed the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery in
May and has signed with Houston for 2001. Signing a guy with arm problems
-- especially after he flunked his physical exam with St. Louis -- was
a big risk, and the Phils predictably ended up with the short end of the
stick.
Outlook
Forecast for baseball fans for 2001 and 2002 for the Philadelphia area:
Look for more of the same depressing gray skies that have covered Philly
and environs for the past five years. Expect frequent thunderstorms on
summer evenings and Sunday afternoons, with most of the activity centered
over Broad and Pattison Streets in south Philadelphia.
The weather in the Delaware Valley has been preternaturally consistent
for the past 15 years, with the glaring exception of 1993. During the
summer and fall of '93, there was an exceptionally strong southern detour
in the jet stream that caused very unlikely events to happen -- like the
Phillies actually fielding a winning team.
Long-range baseball forecast:
At this point, it is too early to tell exactly what weather will replace
the seamless gray web that southeastern Pennsylvania baseball fans have
been caught in since 1985. Look for gradual clearing starting in 2003
as construction on the new ballpark continues, with major developments
in 2004 when the new venue is scheduled to open.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
|
