2000 Post-Season Review -- Pittsburgh Pirates
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
March 2, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Pittsburgh Pirates performed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 804 793
Runs allowed 811 888
Run Margin -7 -95
Wins 79 69
Pythagorean wins 80 72
Placement 4th 5th
Pittsburgh finished 2000 with its eighth-straight losing campaign. Whatever
residual good feelings the young and hungry team had aroused in their
fans during the exciting 1997 season were completely dissipated last year.
What should have been a positive good-bye to Three Rivers Stadium, as
the team pointed toward the opening of new PNC Park, turned instead into
a downright ugly mess.
Things started badly last season, and they really never got much better.
The last home opener in Three Rivers Stadium was a sellout, but inclement
weather forced a postponement that set an ominously bleak tone for 2000.
The Bucs finished April with a woeful 9-15 record, then continued to struggle
until a horrendous August (8-21) completely undid the team.
There was more than enough blame to go around. The veteran players acquired
by general manager Cam Bonifay didn't work out as planned, the team's
best prospects didn't produce as expected, and the resulting losses caused
the predictable backbiting and dissension. The Pirates ended up with a
69-93 record in fifth place in the NL Central, ahead of only the sad-sack
Cubs. Manager Gene Lamont paid for the team's backsliding with his job.
Key Position Players
The Bucs finished ninth in the NL in runs with 793. While that's not
very impressive, it wasn't the primary reason for the team's collapse.
Pittsburgh's "attack" was certainly far from fearsome, and most everyone
on the club has to share the blame. Unproductive seasons from every regular
infielder really hurt, and the confused situation in the outfield certainly
didn't help. Only a strong season from iron-man receiver Jason Kendall
and a superb performance by outfielder Brian Giles kept the Pittsburgh
attack close to respectable.
Jason Kendall, c, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 489 156 33 4 13 93 70 24 59 3 51 25 5 .319 .413 .483 .896 106
Prorated Pit 573 183 39 5 15 109 82 28 69 4 60 29 6 .319 .413 .483 .896 124
Actual Pit 579 185 33 6 14 112 58 15 79 3 79 22 12 .320 .412 .470 .882 116
Pittsburgh's decision to lock up Kendall to a long-term deal this winter
shows a commitment to winning, something Pirates fans haven't always seen
from their club in recent seasons. Recovering from a dislocated ankle
that destroyed his 2000 season, Kendall ran often (but not as effectively
as previously) and hit up to expectations. Showing line-drive power, patience,
and a continued ability to hit pitchers from both sides (.331 vs. lefties,
.316 vs. righties, both with power), Kendall was the NL's starter behind
the plate in the All-Star game.
Stopping the running game remains a problem for Kendall: 125 men took
off with him behind the plate last year, the third-highest total in the
majors, and he caught just 28% of them. Part of this high total is due
to his making 145 starts in 2000, but Kendall's throwing skills have never
been above-average. His leadership and game-calling skills are more highly
regarded, however.
Keith Osik, c/3b/1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 136 28 5 1 1 11 11 1 13 1 23 0 0 .206 .278 .279 .558 10
Prorated Pit 128 26 5 1 1 10 10 1 12 1 22 0 0 .206 .278 .279 .558 10
Actual Pit 123 36 6 1 4 11 22 5 14 0 11 3 0 .293 .387 .455 .843 23
While the Pirates like Osik for his all-around toughness and versatility,
they don't want him in there instead of Jason Kendall; Osik made only
17 starts despite being the only other catcher Pittsburgh had on the roster
all season. A .371 average with power against lefties and a surprisingly
good showing against righties fueled Osik's unexpected progress at bat.
Following the 2000 campaign he inked another two-year deal.
Kevin Young, 1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 552 159 36 4 25 91 99 9 60 3 113 15 7 .288 .364 .504 .867 101
Prorated Pit 476 137 31 3 22 79 85 8 52 3 98 13 6 .288 .364 .504 .867 87
Actual Pit 496 128 27 0 20 77 88 8 32 1 96 8 3 .258 .311 .433 .744 64
Age and knee injuries have reduced Young's value both at the plate and
in the field, making 2000 his worst full season since 1993. Formerly a
very good first baseman, Young in 2000 showed average range and led NL
first baseman in errors. His unexpectedly poor fielding was another spike
in the Pirates' coffin. What's worse is that he was also well below par
at the plate. After two solid offensive years, he slumped last season,
showing a markedly slower bat, chasing bad balls, and grounding into a
team-leading 15 double plays. As usual, he began and ended the season
poorly, doing his best hitting in the warm months. Some observers felt
that Young did not always hustle last season; that charge has been leveled
before.
Alex Hernandez, 1b/lf/rf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 70 16 3 0 2 10 8 0 5 0 14 1 1 .229 .280 .357 .637 7
Prorated Pit 56 13 2 0 2 8 6 0 4 0 11 1 1 .229 .280 .357 .637 5
Actual Pit 60 12 3 0 1 4 5 0 0 0 13 1 1 .200 .200 .300 .500 3
The Pirates have been touting Hernandez because of his power potential.
Unfortunately, he hasn't actually shown power at any level
of pro ball, topping out in 1999 with 15 homers in Double-A. His full-season
high in batting average is last year's .301, split between Double-A and
Triple-A, and he strikes out often and rarely walks. For an outfielder
with the defensive skills of a first baseman, that isn't nearly enough
production at bat. Hernandez won't be a starter in the majors unless he
hits with more authority. A lot more authority.
Warren Morris, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 523 147 22 4 15 70 77 3 56 3 87 5 6 .281 .351 .424 .775 78
Prorated Pit 537 151 23 4 15 72 79 3 58 3 89 5 6 .281 .351 .424 .775 80
Actual Pit 528 137 31 2 3 68 43 2 65 3 78 7 10 .259 .341 .343 .684 64
Morris' decline was one of the biggest factors in the Pirates' disappointing
campaign. After hitting southpaws at a .336 clip in his rookie campaign
of 1999, he slid to .230 with a pathetic .585 OPS last season. Against
righties, he batted only .265, and his power disintegrated to barely traceable
levels. Morris lacks speed and agility, but he did show above-par range
for the Pirates last year. However, his offense just isn't enough to help
a winning team at this level. If Morris doesn't hit his way back into
the Pirates' graces this year, he won't be around much longer.
Aramis Ramirez, 3b, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 527 141 31 2 17 74 68 8 68 3 82 2 3 .268 .357 .431 .788 84
Prorated Pit 237 63 14 1 8 33 31 4 31 1 37 1 1 .268 .357 .431 .788 38
Actual Pit 254 65 15 2 6 19 35 5 10 0 36 0 0 .256 .293 .402 .695 28
It looks like 2000 was just another disappointing season for young Ramirez.
Indeed, he was shipped out to the minors on April 28 with a horrifying
.160 batting average. He was recalled on June 19 after hitting .353 at
Nashville; happily, Ramirez batted .284 the rest of the way for the Bucs
and began to show some power. Unfortunately, his season ended on August
28 when he dislocated his left shoulder. A healthy Ramirez will now try
to show what he can do with a full season. His decline in walks last year
was surprising and troubling, but he did take 73 free passes in 131 games
at Nashville in 1999.
Ramirez has one of the strongest arms in the major leagues, but he is
an erratic thrower and fielder. His range and fielding percentage were
both below average in 2000 and, if he can't address his defensive problems,
it will hurt his ability to make it in the majors at the hot corner. If
he fails at third base, he probably won't hit enough to last at another
position.
Mike Benjamin, 3b/ss/2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 68 17 4 1 1 8 7 1 4 0 15 1 0 .250 .301 .382 .684 8
Prorated Pit 231 58 14 3 3 27 24 3 14 0 51 3 0 .250 .301 .382 .684 27
Actual Pit 233 63 18 2 2 28 19 3 12 0 45 5 4 .270 .313 .391 .704 28
Asked to assume a heavy role due to the washout of Aramis Ramirez at
third, Benjamin hit a few more singles than expected last year. That was
about it for him offensively; he has no power, speed, or on-base ability.
However, if allowed to serve in his true role as a spare infielder, Benjamin
is valuable for his defense, versatility, and hard-nosed play. He showed
near-spectacular range and good hands last year at second base, shortstop,
and third.
Luis Sojo, 3b/2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 84 21 3 0 1 11 10 0 4 0 9 1 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 8
Prorated Pit 178 45 6 0 2 23 21 0 8 0 19 2 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 16
Actual Pit 176 50 11 0 5 14 20 1 11 3 16 1 0 .284 .328 .432 .760 24
Prorated NYA 126 32 5 0 2 17 15 0 6 0 14 2 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 11
Actual NYA 125 36 7 1 2 19 17 0 6 0 6 1 0 .288 .321 .408 .729 15
Prorated Tot 305 76 11 0 4 40 36 0 15 0 33 4 0 .250 .284 .321 .606 27
Actual Tot 301 86 18 1 7 33 37 1 17 3 22 2 0 .286 .325 .422 .747 39
The veteran utility infielder hit surprisingly well for the Pirates,
then was traded to the Yankees for a minor league pitcher in August. He
played 45 games at third base, showing above-average range, and then really
did the job with the mitt at second base when sent to New York. Sojo has
slowed up some, but is a smart and competitive player who can still hit
righties (.305 last year). He has a pronounced reverse-platoon differential.
John Wehner, 3b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 69 17 2 0 2 9 8 0 5 0 10 1 0 .246 .297 .362 .660 7
Prorated Pit 51 12 1 0 1 7 6 0 4 0 7 1 0 .246 .297 .362 .660 5
Actual Pit 50 15 3 0 1 10 9 0 4 0 6 0 0 .300 .352 .420 .772 7
As long as Wehner wants to play, someone will want him for their Triple-A
roster. He is versatile, plays hard every day, and knows the game. Believe
it or not, Wehner has been in the majors for parts of each of the last
ten years, yet he has accumulated just 753 big-league at-bats.
Enrique Wilson, 3b/2b/Ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 90 24 5 0 1 13 8 0 7 0 10 2 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 10
Prorated Cle 115 31 6 0 1 17 10 0 9 0 13 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 13
Actual Cle 117 38 9 0 2 16 12 0 7 0 11 2 1 .325 .360 .453 .813 19
Prorated Pit 124 33 7 0 1 18 11 0 10 0 14 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 14
Actual Pit 122 32 6 1 3 11 15 0 11 2 13 0 1 .262 .321 .402 .723 15
Prorated Tot 239 64 13 0 3 35 21 0 19 0 27 5 3 .267 .316 .356 .672 27
Actual Tot 239 70 15 1 5 27 27 0 18 2 24 2 2 .293 .340 .427 .767 34
For the Pirates to get Wilson (and Alex Ramirez) in July in exchange
for Wil Cordero was a terrific deal. While Wilson doesn't have the power
to play third, and he doesn't have the range to play shortstop regularly,
he can hit and run and has the ability to fill in all over the diamond.
Word out of the Pirates camp is that they're leaning toward using Wilson
as the starting shortstop this year. If that doesn't work out, and if
Warren Morris continues to struggle, Wilson could also challenge him for
regular duty at second. The more he plays, the better he seems to hit.
Pat Meares, Ss, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 616 165 30 3 12 79 77 11 41 1 106 6 6 .268 .322 .385 .707 76
Prorated Pit 467 125 23 2 9 60 58 8 31 1 80 5 5 .268 .322 .385 .707 58
Actual Pit 462 111 22 2 13 55 47 8 36 6 91 1 0 .240 .305 .381 .685 53
Coming back from a broken wrist that limited him to 21 games in 1999,
Meares didn't hit and played only average defense. He didn't hit in the
first or second half, didn't hit righties or lefties, and didn't produce
on grass or turf, at home or on the road, or during the day or at night.
It was just a lousy overall year at the plate for Meares, even though
he set (modest) career highs in homers and walks. Despite his reputation,
Meares is really a stopgap until something better comes along. However,
since the Pirates are thin in infielders, he will probably play at least
semi-regularly again in 2001, either at short or second. The Bucs decision
to sign Meares through 2003 was really a panicky move that will hurt the
club for years.
Abraham Nunez, Ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 66 15 2 0 0 8 5 0 7 0 12 2 1 .227 .301 .258 .559 6
Prorated Pit 87 20 3 0 0 11 7 0 9 0 16 3 1 .227 .301 .258 .559 7
Actual Pit 91 20 1 0 1 10 8 0 8 1 14 0 0 .220 .283 .264 .547 7
Even though he is still young, Nunez has just about played himself out
of chances. His defense improved last year, but his nonexistent offense
has left the Pirates disappointed and bewildered. With Pat Meares on the
downside of a mediocre run as a starter, there is plenty of opportunity
for Nunez to play. Nonetheless, despite good strike-zone judgment and
the ability to bat from both sides, he just isn't hitting enough to give
his glove a chance to earn him a job.
Wil Cordero, lf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 557 156 34 2 21 93 83 8 43 2 109 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 86
Prorated Pit 343 96 21 1 13 57 51 5 26 1 67 1 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 53
Actual Pit 348 98 24 3 16 46 51 4 25 1 58 1 2 .282 .336 .506 .842 55
Prorated Cle 143 40 9 1 5 24 21 2 11 1 28 1 0 .280 .338 .461 .799 22
Actual Cle 148 39 11 2 0 18 17 3 7 0 18 0 0 .264 .310 .365 .675 15
Prorated Tot 486 136 30 2 18 81 72 7 38 2 95 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 75
Actual Tot 496 137 35 5 16 64 68 7 32 1 76 1 2 .276 .328 .464 .792 70
Cordero's bat keeps him around, but even then it is questionable whether
his offense makes up for the baggage he carries. A notoriously streaky
hitter, he enjoyed a spectacular May (.398, five homers) with the Bucs,
but didn't come close to duplicating those numbers at any other time.
When dealt to the Indians, he ate up valuable at-bats and produced nothing.
Still productive against southpaws (.323, .932 OPS in 2000), Cordero may
end up as a platoon DH due to his below-average range in left field. He
lacks competitiveness and the ability to contribute with his glove --
at any position.
Brian Giles, cf/lf/rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 556 158 32 3 34 102 107 3 99 8 92 8 3 .284 .392 .536 .928 121
Prorated Pit 575 163 33 3 35 106 111 3 102 8 95 8 3 .284 .392 .536 .928 125
Actual Pit 559 176 37 7 35 111 123 7 114 13 69 6 0 .315 .432 .594 1.026 151
Giles, the Pirates' best player, combines an all-out gamer mentality
and an undeniable offensive package. He paced the team in nearly every
important offensive category in 2000. A fearsome hitter, he has a .293
career mark with pop against lefties and simply murders right-handers
(.992 career OPS). Last season Giles ranked fourth in the NL in on-base
average while making excellent contact. He started 38 or more games at
each of the three outfield positions during 2000. Despite his hustle,
however, he showed average to below-average range at all spots. His bat
will carry him a long way, though Pittsburgh could help him out by not
moving him from position to position in the pasture to accommodate far
less important players.
Chad Hermansen, CF/rf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 519 126 27 4 26 80 78 4 46 2 125 18 8 .243 .307 .461 .768 74
Prorated Pit 106 26 6 1 5 16 16 1 9 0 25 4 2 .243 .307 .461 .768 15
Actual Pit 108 20 4 1 2 12 8 0 6 0 37 0 0 .185 .226 .296 .522 7
Opportunity knocked again for Hermansen last season, but he couldn't
answer the door. The Bucs' opening-day center fielder, he batted .181
in 94 at-bats before a May 20 demotion to Triple-A. Back at Nashville
for the third straight year, a dejected Hermansen hit just .224 in 78
games and missed a week's worth of games after taking a pitched ball in
the head. It was a disastrous campaign for the youngster, who struggled
again with strikeouts and appeared to lose some of his fire. While he
still has plenty of time, without an improvement in his ability to make
contact with breaking balls, Hermansen won't get to show off his gifts
in the major leagues. He's still young enough to learn, but he should
be showing much better progress.
Adrian Brown, CF/rf/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 69 19 2 1 1 11 5 0 7 0 9 3 1 .275 .342 .377 .719 9
Prorated Pit 305 84 9 4 4 49 22 0 31 0 40 13 4 .275 .342 .377 .719 41
Actual Pit 308 97 18 3 4 64 28 0 29 1 34 13 1 .315 .373 .432 .805 54
Perhaps baseball's least-known .300 hitter last year, Brown -- who didn't
get to play regularly until after coming back from a serious hamstring
injury in early August -- showed that he could hit major-league pitching
if given the chance. He has a good contact stroke and runs very well,
and while that doesn't quite make up for his lack of power, it helps.
Brown hit .365 against lefties and .305 vs. righties in 2000, batting
at least .281 in every month. However, his range in center field was far
below average, and certainly far worse than the Pirates expected. Brown
has speed and a good enough arm, but he got inconsistent jumps on fly
balls and couldn't outrun his mistakes. There are questions as to his
level of concentration in the outfield, and the hamstring injury certainly
didn't help. Brown is not a stellar talent, but he has enough skills to
be valuable if he can learn -- and improve -- with experience.
John Vander Wal, rf/1b/lf, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 77 19 5 0 2 9 11 0 11 0 19 0 0 .247 .337 .390 .727 11
Prorated Pit 399 98 26 0 10 47 57 0 57 0 98 0 0 .247 .337 .390 .727 56
Actual Pit 384 115 29 0 24 74 94 2 72 5 92 11 2 .299 .410 .563 .972 94
Vander Wal produced so well last season that the Pirates had little choice
but to play him. He batted .353 in April with a .765 slugging percentage,
and kept on playing (and hitting) all year despite showing below-average
range in both left and right field. By season's end, he ranked second
on the club in homers and RBI and third in walks and (surprisingly) stolen
bases despite a relatively low number of at-bats.
The former reserve struggled against lefties (.630 OPS) but ripped righties
at a .314 clip and slugged .599. As a pinch-hitter, he slammed three home
runs; he batted .344 as a starter. It was a wonderful all-around campaign
for Vander Wal, and one can understand his frustration when the Pirates
went out and signed Derek Bell to play right field in 2001. Vander Wal
has since asked to be traded. However, one can see him ending up at first
base for the Bucs, especially if Kevin Young continues to struggle both
at bat and in the field.
Bruce Aven, rf/lf/CF, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 79 22 4 0 3 12 14 2 8 0 17 1 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 13
Prorated Pit 134 37 7 0 5 20 24 3 14 0 29 2 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 23
Actual Pit 148 37 11 0 5 18 25 0 5 0 31 2 3 .250 .275 .426 .700 15
Prorated LA 20 6 1 0 1 3 4 1 2 0 4 0 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 3
Actual LA 20 5 0 0 2 2 4 0 3 0 8 0 0 .250 .348 .550 .898 4
Prorated Tot 154 43 8 0 6 23 27 4 16 0 33 2 0 .278 .356 .443 .799 26
Actual Tot 168 42 11 0 7 20 29 0 8 0 39 2 3 .250 .284 .440 .725 19
Aven's strike-zone judgment plummeted last season, and he ended 2000
as a spare part on the Dodgers' roster. He did bat .270 with power against
lefties, which indicates that he could fill a role as a pinch-hitter if
his glove isn't too bad.
Emil Brown, rf/lf/CF, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Pit 68 18 3 0 2 12 8 1 5 0 12 2 1 .265 .320 .397 .717 9
Prorated Pit 122 32 5 0 4 22 14 2 9 0 22 4 2 .265 .320 .397 .717 16
Actual Pit 119 26 5 0 3 13 16 3 11 0 34 3 1 .218 .299 .336 .635 12
Brown has hit over .300 three straight times in the minors, but hasn't
done a thing so far in the big leagues. He batted .304 with two homers
in 23 at-bats during July, but then went just 19 for 93 (.204) the rest
of the way. He'll be a reserve at best, but he can play left and right
field effectively. Unfortunately for his career, his range isn't good
enough for center field, and his bat isn't good enough for the corners.
Alex Ramirez, rf, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cle 72 20 4 1 2 11 11 1 2 0 14 1 1 .278 .307 .444 .751 9
Prorated Cle 112 31 6 2 3 17 17 2 3 0 22 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 14
Actual Cle 112 32 5 1 5 13 12 0 5 0 17 1 0 .286 .316 .482 .798 16
Prorated Pit 118 33 7 2 3 18 18 2 3 0 23 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 15
Actual Pit 115 24 6 1 4 13 18 0 7 2 32 1 0 .209 .254 .383 .637 9
Prorated Tot 230 64 13 3 6 35 35 3 6 0 45 3 3 .278 .307 .444 .751 28
Actual Tot 227 56 11 2 9 26 30 0 12 2 49 2 0 .247 .285 .432 .716 25
Ramirez didn't hit for power until 1998, his second season at Triple-A
Buffalo. That season elevated him to prospect status, but Ramirez' value
remains questionable. He hit under .250 against both lefties and righties
in 2000, played middling defense, and had no visible on-base percentage.
The Pirates sold him to the Japanese Central League's Yakult Swallows
on November 1.
Key Pitchers
Broad and deep pitching problems deserve most of the blame for the Pirates'
lost season. Injuries felled starters Jason Schmidt and Francisco Cordova,
and there was no one available to take their place who could consistently
give the club a chance to win. Of the eight pitchers who made ten or more
starts, only young gun Kris Benson (3.85), a true first-rate talent, could
post an ERA better than 4.81.
In the bullpen, Mike Williams continued his improbable thirtysomething
comeback as a closer, saving a modest 24 games while pitching quite well.
Josias Manzanillo and Scott Sauerbeck also pitched reasonably well in
relief, but that doesn't matter much when your starting mound corps is
getting shelled early and often.
Jason Schmidt, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.68 32 32 10 13 0 208 217 24 78 142 .271 .777
Prorated Pit 4.68 11 11 3 4 0 68 71 8 26 47 .271 .777
Actual Pit 5.40 11 11 2 5 0 63 71 6 41 51 .284 .816
Schmidt did not pitch after last June, undergoing surgery to repair a
damaged labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Before the operation,
he showed a well above-average fastball but continued to struggle with
command of his slider and changeup. All bets are off for him this year;
Schmidt's career hinges on his ability to recover from his shoulder problems
over the long term. At his age, he's got enough time to come back, but
it could easily take a year for him to regain his velocity and his feel
for his pitches.
Francisco Cordova, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.22 32 32 11 11 0 196 199 21 66 128 .265 .743
Prorated Pit 4.22 16 16 6 6 0 99 101 11 33 65 .265 .743
Actual Pit 5.21 18 17 6 8 0 95 107 12 38 66 .285 .818
Injuries have taken much of the bite from Cordova's pitches as well as
much of the velocity from his fastball. He ended last year on the DL due
to a bone spur in his right elbow that required season-ending surgery.
The Pirates believe that Cordova is ready to pitch this spring, but he
must regain the command of his curve and change that abandoned him in
1999-2000. Cordova has always struggled with left-handed batters, but
last year allowed them to hit .349 with power (.922 OPS).
Kris Benson, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.39 32 32 12 12 0 209 209 25 83 145 .263 .754
Prorated Pit 4.39 33 33 13 13 0 218 218 26 87 151 .263 .754
Actual Pit 3.85 32 32 10 12 0 218 206 24 86 184 .249 .716
The Pirates' first-round pick in the 1996 draft, Benson has quickly developed
into one of the game's best young starting pitchers. A hard thrower with
four average or better pitches, Benson ratcheted up his strikeout rate
last year by getting better command of his fine slider. He still has bouts
of spotty control and he struggled down the stretch, allowing 20 earned
runs in his final 32 innings. When his curve and changeup hang in the
strike zone, they are home-run fodder. One area of caution for Benson
is that for 2001 he moves into a home park with a grass field; oddly for
a strong groundball pitcher, Benson was 1-8 with a 5.89 mark last year
on the real stuff.
If the new Pirates are going to escape the hopelessness that has pervaded
the Steel City since the breakup of the exciting Bonds-Bonilla NL East
champions of the early 1990s, Benson has to become a reliable rotation
anchor. With injuries posing huge question marks over Jason Schmidt and
Francisco Cordova, there is no one else even to audition for the #1 job
if Benson falters.
Todd Ritchie, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.38 32 32 11 11 0 195 199 21 69 130 .266 .751
Prorated Pit 4.38 31 31 11 11 0 189 192 20 67 126 .266 .751
Actual Pit 4.81 31 31 9 8 0 187 208 26 51 124 .282 .797
Command problems hurt Ritchie last season. He couldn't get his sinking
fastball or slider over consistently and too often had to come in with
hittable four-seam heaters. The result was an increase in extra-base hits
and a pronounced problem with left-handed batters (.915 OPS). Despite
his decline, Ritchie remains a valuable starting pitcher who has above-par
stuff and will take the ball. Even if he does not regain his 1999 level
of performance, he can help to fill the Pittsburgh rotation. But the Bucs
would love to see him throw strike one.
Jimmy Anderson, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 5.86 27 27 6 10 0 154 186 15 78 85 .304 .848
Prorated Pit 5.86 25 25 6 9 0 142 172 14 72 78 .304 .848
Actual Pit 5.25 27 26 5 11 0 144 169 13 58 73 .294 .793
The rookie lefty was up and down last season, struggling at times and
being demoted twice. He has four pitches, none of them better than average,
and lacks good command. Anderson wasn't able to either throw strikes consistently
or get out lefties (.303) or righties (.292). That said, he had a good
streak in July, patching together four good starts in which he had everything
going for him. At best Anderson is an end-of-the-rotation starter, but
at least he has a chance to fill that role.
Dan Serafini, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.23 34 4 2 4 0 62 70 9 27 35 .287 .813
Prorated SD 5.23 2 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 2 3 .287 .813
Actual SD 18.00 3 0 0 0 0 3 9 2 2 3 .500 1.383
Prorated Pit 5.23 34 4 2 4 0 63 71 9 27 36 .287 .813
Actual Pit 4.91 11 11 2 5 0 62 70 9 26 32 .292 .851
Prorated Tot 5.23 37 4 2 4 0 67 76 10 29 38 .287 .813
Actual Tot 5.51 14 11 2 5 0 65 79 11 28 35 .306 .888
The Pirates brought him over from San Diego's Triple-A Las Vegas club
in late June, then promoted him on August 5 and placed him in the starting
rotation when injuries ate up their pitching staff. Serafini had a few
good starts, but pitched poorly at home (7.89 ERA in 21 innings) and continued
to walk too many for comfort. He knows how to pitch but lacks the stuff
to compete successfully in the majors.
Bronson Arroyo, starter/long reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 9.60 3 3 0 2 0 15 25 4 8 10 .373 1.098
Prorated Pit 9.60 13 13 0 9 0 65 108 17 35 43 .373 1.098
Actual Pit 6.40 20 12 2 6 0 72 88 10 36 50 .302 .872
A four-pitch right-hander who threw with good control in the minors,
Arroyo began last season at Triple-A Nashville but ended it in the Pirates'
rotation. He was 2-4 with a 5.93 ERA as a starter, but a shocking 0-5
with a 9.71 ERA on the road. Arroyo pitched quite well on plastic, but
allowed both lefties and righties to bat at least .300. He is borderline;
none of Arroyo's pitches are above average except for his curve, and at
best he'll be a fifth starter. A more likely billet for him is middle
relief.
Jose Silva, long reliever/starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.73 53 0 3 4 0 72 81 7 27 51 .285 .785
Prorated Pit 4.73 105 0 6 8 0 144 161 14 54 101 .285 .785
Actual Pit 5.56 51 19 11 9 0 136 178 16 50 98 .317 .830
Good idea, bad results. The hard-throwing Silva made his first 32 appearances
of the year in relief and was 5-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 39.2 innings. The
Pirates, desperate for healthy starters, promoted Silva to the rotation
on June 19. He did not succeed in his new role, pitching well enough in
July but being pounded mercilessly in the last two months (a 9.06 ERA
in his final 11 starts). Despite an excellent fastball, Silva can't get
strikeouts when he needs them because of poor control of his curve and
changeup. With some improvement in command, Silva could become either
a #2 or #3 starter or a dominating late-inning reliever. "Could be" is
the operative phrase here.
Josias Manzanillo, long reliever, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 6.61 11 0 1 1 0 16 21 4 7 15 .313 .964
Prorated Pit 6.61 35 0 3 3 0 52 67 13 22 48 .313 .964
Actual Pit 3.38 43 0 2 2 0 59 50 6 32 39 .240 .723
The well-traveled veteran returned to Pittsburgh last season and did
his thing -- he showed good stuff and took the ball, though he still struggled
to get his pitches over the dish. Manzanillo just can't afford to walk
so many hitters (22 of them lefties in just over 90 plate appearances),
especially when he no longer has a certified strikeout pitch. He is not
a long-term solution and will likely slump if overexposed in 2001.
Marc Wilkins, middle reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 3.78 70 0 6 4 3 95 91 8 48 75 .253 .731
Prorated Pit 3.78 46 0 4 3 2 63 60 5 32 49 .253 .731
Actual Pit 5.07 52 0 4 2 0 60 54 4 43 37 .248 .752
One of the many Pirates relievers who can't throw a strike to save his
life, Wilkins was effective down the stretch but not helpful at any other
time. His inability to get the ball over was a surprise, and may have
something to do with lingering arm problems. The Bucs cut him loose after
the season.
Jeff Wallace, middle reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.08 53 0 4 4 0 68 62 7 60 66 .246 .781
Prorated Pit 4.08 31 0 2 2 0 40 36 4 35 38 .246 .781
Actual Pit 7.07 38 0 2 0 0 36 42 5 34 27 .290 .867
Wallace is a classic case of a good arm being rushed to the majors. Since
he threw just 71 innings in the high minors, it's no wonder that he has
no idea of how to pitch. It's hard to use him as a one-out lefty when
he allowed them to hit .286, as they did last year, with three homers
and 15 walks in 65 plate appearances. He has signed with the Devil Rays
for 2001.
Scott Sauerbeck, lefty setup, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 5.09 30 0 1 3 0 41 44 5 20 30 .280 .809
Prorated Pit 5.09 58 0 2 6 0 79 85 10 39 58 .280 .809
Actual Pit 4.04 75 0 5 4 1 76 76 4 61 83 .270 .787
In his second season as the Bucs' #1 lefty reliever, Sauerbeck saw his
ERA expand by two runs (2.00 to 4.04) as control of his pitches and emotions
deserted him at critical times. He also had some elbow problems that disabled
him for two weeks. Sauerbeck is proving himself a good lefty-lefty matchup
guy (.222 BA against them, with 41 Ks in 117 at-bats), but unless he can
get righties out, he will be limited to that role.
Jason Christiansen, lefty setup, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 2.75 70 0 5 2 1 75 62 5 33 73 .225 .644
Prorated Pit 2.75 36 0 3 1 1 39 32 3 17 38 .225 .644
Actual Pit 4.97 44 0 2 8 1 38 28 2 25 41 .207 .633
Prorated StL 2.75 10 0 1 0 0 11 9 1 5 11 .225 .644
Actual StL 5.40 21 0 1 0 0 10 13 1 2 12 .317 .841
Prorated Tot 2.75 47 0 3 1 1 50 41 3 22 49 .225 .644
Actual Tot 5.06 65 0 3 8 1 48 41 3 27 53 .233 .681
Christiansen was either very good or very bad for the Bucs. He was terrific
in the early going, then struggled as walks got him in trouble. He was
hit hard in May and June, losing seven in a row, then allowed four runs
on July 30 against San Diego. The Bucs sent him to St. Louis that night.
Rich Loiselle, setup man, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 3.98 40 0 3 3 0 54 58 5 25 46 .278 .769
Prorated Pit 3.98 34 0 3 3 0 46 49 4 21 39 .278 .769
Actual Pit 5.10 40 0 2 3 0 42 43 5 30 32 .262 .807
Coming back from 1999 elbow surgery, Loiselle showed promise despite
some expected control problems. He was far more effective (3.76 ERA) after
the All-star break, following a June DL trip to rest a sore right shoulder.
While Loiselle may not have an immediate opportunity to regain the closer's
job in Pittsburgh, as he blew all six of his save chances last year, he
should be a very valuable setup pitcher assuming his second-half improvement
was real. He was more effective against lefties last season.
Mike Williams, closer, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 4.42 70 0 2 7 25 71 74 11 35 76 .269 .806
Prorated Pit 4.42 68 0 2 7 24 70 72 11 34 74 .269 .806
Actual Pit 3.50 72 0 3 4 24 72 56 8 40 71 .218 .678
Williams doesn't have a typical closer's stuff, sporting an average sinker
and an above-average slider, but he has the mentality for the job and
wants the ball. His tough mental state, and his relatively good command,
made him a reasonable choice for late-relief duties in 2000 after he had
mixed results in that role in 1999. He allowed six of his eight homers
to lefty batters, but didn't allow them to hit that well overall (.231).
Williams saved 24 games in 29 chances and showed real improvement against
right-handed batters (.209, 43 Ks in 153 at-bats).
Outlook
New manager Lloyd McClendon has so far shown a take-charge attitude that
at least is a refreshing change from the past two years. Whether a new
attitude and a new ballpark translates into better performance on the
field is another question.
One troubling sign in the pitching staff's performance in 2000 on grass.
The 2000 Bucs fashioned a home ERA of 4.60 and a road turf ERA of 4.46.
However, their road grass ERA was an unhealthy 5.50, which is worrisome
when considering that the club is moving into a new ballpark with a grass
field.
For better or worse, the first edition of the PNC Pirates are going to
look a lot like the last edition of the Three Rivers Pirates. Off-season
acquisitions Terry Mulholland and Derek Bell could help somewhat, but
they clearly aren't going to pull this team over the hump from also-ran
to contender. They could end up as the 2001 versions of Pat Meares and
Dan Serafini -- rejects from other teams that fail when asked to play
major roles.
To make the journey from burned-out, downtrodden club to contender --
which is a helluva lot longer and more arduous journey than the short
trip from Three Rivers to PNC -- pretty much everything needs to go better
than it did last year.
If the debut season at PNC is to be as memorable as the inaugural season
at Three Rivers in 1971, when the Pirates won a World Championship, Pittsburgh
must:
- avoid a lot of crippling injuries;
- see vast improvement from Ramirez and Hermansen;
- receive continued excellence from Kendall, Giles, and Benson; and
- enjoy more than a few comebacks from the rest of the infielders and
the pitchers
Calculate for yourself how likely that combination is.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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