2000 Post-Season Review -- San Diego Padres
By Tom Tippett
March 11, 2001
This article takes a look at how the San Diego Padres performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 725 752
Runs allowed 867 815
Run Margin -142 -63
Wins 70 76
Pythagorean wins 67 74
Placement 5th 5th
San Diego spent most of the season in last place, but it was a respectable
last place, if there is such a thing. Their .469 winning percentage was
by far the best of the cellar dwellers, and a strong 18-11 run in August
got them to 65-69 before they tailed off a little to finish 21 games back
of the surging Giants.
Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko led an offense that scored 27 more runs than
expected. The pitching was a little better than we projected thanks to
a strong debut from Adam Eaton, surprisingly good contributions from Brian
Tollberg and Stan Spencer, and a strong bullpen that was anchored by newcomer
Kevin Walker and two guys the Padres have come to rely upon, Donne Wall
and Trevor Hoffman.
It was a mixed bag on defense. Their young outfielders -- notably Ruben
Rivera, Eric Owens, and Mike Darr -- covered a lot of ground, and there's
no question in my mind that some of the success of the pitching staff
can be attributed to the presence of these guys in the outfield (and the
absence of Tony Gwynn). On the other hand, the infielders showed only
average range and very poor hands. As a result, the Padres led the NL
with 141 errors and finished last in the majors in fielding percentage.
Key Position Players
The Padres offense was a little more productive than expected, beating
our pre-season projection by 27 runs. A very big year from Phil Nevin
accounted for most of that increase, with the remainder credited to Ryan
Klesko, whose terrific first half outweighed a poor finish. Despite his
impressive stolen base totals, Damian Jackson fell a little short of matching
the output that was projected for Chris Gomez, who would have been the
starting shortstop if not for a knee injury that wiped out 90% of his
season. And while the club couldn't find anyone to match what Tony Gwynn's
bat would have given them in right field, his replacements -- mainly Eric
Owens and Mike Darr -- came close and more than made up for their offensive
shortcomings with defense that was much, much better than what Gwynn can
provide at this stage of his career.
Carlos Hernandez, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 450 125 19 1 13 47 64 8 25 2 61 2 2 .278 .326 .411 .737 55
Prorated SD 196 55 8 0 6 21 28 3 11 1 27 1 1 .278 .326 .411 .737 24
Actual SD 191 48 11 0 2 16 25 3 16 1 26 1 3 .251 .316 .340 .656 20
Prorated StL 54 15 2 0 2 6 8 1 3 0 7 0 0 .278 .326 .411 .737 7
Actual StL 51 14 4 0 1 7 10 1 5 0 9 1 0 .275 .345 .412 .757 8
Prorated Tot 250 69 11 1 7 26 36 4 14 1 34 1 1 .278 .326 .411 .737 30
Actual Tot 242 62 15 0 3 23 35 4 21 1 35 2 3 .256 .322 .355 .678 28
Hernandez must have known that he was just keeping the seat warm until
Ben Davis was deemed to be ready. He had been a backup almost his entire
career and had missed the entire 1999 season due to injury. But he regained
the starting job that was his in 1998 and held it (except for two visits
to the disabled list) until he was dealt to the Cardinals at the end of
July. Hernandez has never been much of a hitter -- even though he was
well below the league average offensively, he actually improved upon his
career norms last year.
Ben Davis, c, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 88 21 5 0 2 10 12 0 8 1 17 1 0 .239 .299 .364 .663 10
Prorated SD 134 32 8 0 3 15 18 0 12 2 26 2 0 .239 .299 .364 .663 15
Actual SD 130 29 6 0 3 12 14 0 14 1 35 1 1 .223 .297 .338 .635 14
A good defensive catcher who throws well, Davis hasn't yet shown that
he's going to be a good major-league hitter. In 1999, he was pressed into
service during the second half of the season by injuries to those ahead
of him on the depth chart, and he responded by hitting .244 with five
homers in 266 atbats. Not terrible, but nothing to get too excited about,
either. With Hernandez back, Davis was sent to AAA Las Vegas for more
seasoning, though he was called up twice when Hernandez was hurt. After
Hernandez was traded, Davis himself spent a couple of weeks on the disabled
list, but was given the majority of the starts when he was healthy. If
you ignore the his 2-for-21 performance during his April call-up and focus
on what he did after the trade, Davis showed a little improvement at the
plate. It seems likely that Davis will be the starter this year, and the
Padres are counting on him to make progress as a hitter.
Wiki Gonzalez, c, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 69 17 3 0 3 9 11 1 5 0 7 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 9
Prorated SD 293 72 13 0 13 38 47 4 21 0 30 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 36
Actual SD 284 66 15 1 5 25 30 3 30 4 31 1 2 .232 .311 .345 .656 31
Gonzalez has the best arm of the Padres catchers and his recent minor-league
hitting stats compare favorably with Davis's, but the Padres seem to be
grooming Davis to be the starter and Gonzalez to be the backup. Perhaps
they gave up on Gonzalez a few years ago when he was struggling in the
minors, needing two-plus seasons to graduate to AA and another two years
to make it to AAA. Based on their recent performances, however, it's not
at all clear to me that Davis is the better player right now. He is three
years younger, though, and the Padres must figure that he has a higher
ceiling than Gonzalez.
Ryan Klesko, 1b/rf/lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 483 134 27 2 24 70 84 3 65 6 89 5 3 .277 .363 .491 .854 88
Prorated SD 513 142 29 2 25 74 89 3 69 6 94 5 3 .277 .363 .491 .854 94
Actual SD 494 140 33 2 26 88 92 1 91 9 81 23 7 .283 .393 .516 .909 106
In one of last winter's biggest trades, Klesko and Bret Boone were acquired
from Atlanta for Quilvio Veras, Reggie Sanders, and Wally Joyner. At the
time, I thought this was a steal for the Braves because Boone was overrated
(especially on defense) and Klesko hadn't been much more than a power-hitting
platoon player with limited defensive value.
As the first few months of the season unfolded, it looked as if I was
dead wrong -- Klesko was hitting the cover off the ball and Sanders was
flaming out big time in Atlanta. But Klesko's .316-19-56 first half was
followed by a meager .249-7-36 second half. Even with the weak finish,
Klesko matched his career batting average and slugging percentage, made
a significant leap in his walk rate, nearly doubled his career SB total
in one season, and played acceptable defense at first base.
The trade has boiled down to Veras for Klesko. Sanders was a bust with
Atlanta and is now with the Diamondbacks, Joyner played a limited role
before moving on to Anaheim in free agency, and Boone is now with Seattle.
Veras missed half the season with Atlanta, so I'd give the edge to the
Padres so far. If Klesko and Veras stay healthy for the next several years,
Veras will probably wind up being a little more valuable than Klesko,
if only because (a) it's easier to find 1Bs with power than 2Bs who can
hit at the top of the order and (b) Klesko hasn't shown that he can hit
lefties well enough to be an everyday player.
Ed Sprague, 1b/3b/lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 67 16 3 0 3 9 9 2 6 0 13 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 9
Prorated SD 156 37 7 0 7 21 21 5 14 0 30 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 21
Actual SD 157 41 12 0 10 19 27 3 13 2 40 0 0 .261 .326 .529 .854 28
Prorated Bos 110 26 5 0 5 15 15 3 10 0 21 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 14
Actual Bos 111 24 4 0 2 11 9 0 12 0 18 0 0 .216 .293 .306 .599 10
Prorated Tot 266 64 12 0 12 36 36 8 24 0 52 0 0 .239 .320 .418 .738 35
Actual Tot 268 65 16 0 12 30 36 3 25 2 58 0 0 .243 .312 .437 .749 38
Most of Sprague's playing time came as Klesko's platoon partner, and
he dutifully crushed left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .340 average
with 11 doubles and 8 homers in 100 atbats. He also got a few starts at
third and in left, but his .123 average against right-handed pitching
prevented him from taking on a larger role. Desperate for 3B help, Boston
GM Dan Duquette traded for Sprague, but he wasn't the answer they were
seeking. Sprague returned to San Diego on a minor-league deal after the
season.
Joe Vitiello, ph/1b/rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 92 23 5 0 4 10 15 1 10 0 17 0 0 .250 .327 .435 .762 13
Prorated SD 56 14 3 0 2 6 9 1 6 0 10 0 0 .250 .327 .435 .762 8
Actual SD 52 13 3 0 2 7 8 0 10 0 9 0 0 .250 .365 .423 .788 9
Vitiello came up in the Kansas City organization but could never win
a full-time job despite some occasional bursts of power. He moved to San
Diego a year ago as a minor-league free agent and was called up in July
after a blistering (.350 average, 31 doubles, 11 homers in 274 atbats)
first half with AAA Las Vegas. Vitiello inherited Sprague's role as Klesko's
platoon partner and had similar results -- very good production against
lefties, almost none against righties. His contract was sold to Japan
a couple of months ago.
Bret Boone, 2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 560 142 31 1 21 82 69 4 50 1 102 8 6 .254 .318 .425 .743 74
Prorated SD 471 119 26 1 18 69 58 3 42 1 86 7 5 .254 .318 .425 .743 62
Actual SD 463 116 18 2 19 61 74 5 50 7 97 8 4 .251 .326 .421 .747 64
A few years ago, Boone set a record by making only two errors in an entire
season, thereby winning the Gold Glove and picking up a reputation as
a great defensive player. Truth is, his range has been slipping for four
years and his fielding percentage has been at or below the league average
the past two years. He still has decent power for a 2B, but his other
offensive contributions are nothing special, so he's now below average
on both sides of the ball. As a result, he's moving from team to team,
with nobody keeping him for more than a year at a time. He's expected
to be the starting 2B with Seattle this year.
Phil Nevin, 3b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 554 140 32 1 31 72 98 4 63 1 126 0 0 .253 .331 .482 .813 90
Prorated SD 535 135 31 1 30 69 95 4 61 1 122 0 0 .253 .331 .482 .813 87
Actual SD 538 163 34 1 31 87 107 4 59 9 121 2 0 .303 .374 .543 .916 107
Nevin admits that he didn't take the game seriously enough as a younger
player, and he's finally realizing the potential that made him the first
overall pick in the 1992 draft. Because Nevin was an underachiever for
the first few years of his career, he was tried at several positions --
including catcher and the outfield -- in a fashion more commonly seen
with utility players. But Nevin is back at the position where he starred
in college. At the hot corner, his range was league-average but he made
about 8 more errors than the average 3B last year.
Dave Magadan, ph/3b/1b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 64 18 3 0 1 6 7 0 10 0 9 0 0 .281 .373 .375 .748 9
Prorated SD 142 40 7 0 2 13 15 0 22 0 20 0 0 .281 .373 .375 .748 21
Actual SD 132 36 7 0 2 13 21 0 32 1 23 0 0 .273 .410 .371 .781 22
Although Magadan is a defensive liability at third and doesn't have much
power, his ability to work the count has enabled him to keep a job as
a pinch hitter and spot starter at the corner infield spots. He's in camp
with the Padres again this spring but has been unable to throw because
of a strained elbow. If that injury doesn't clear up soon, he might have
to call it a career.
Chris Gomez, ss/2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 589 157 31 2 8 70 56 6 71 5 111 2 3 .267 .350 .367 .716 77
Prorated SD 56 15 3 0 1 7 5 1 7 0 11 0 0 .267 .350 .367 .716 7
Actual SD 54 12 0 0 0 4 3 0 7 0 5 0 0 .222 .306 .222 .529 4
Gomez was given several chances to play regularly by the Tigers and Padres
but has never batted .270 or had a .350 on-base percentage. And his career
slugging average is .346. In other words, he's been hitting like a utility
infielder, and that's likely what his future role will be. Each of his
last two seasons has been ended early by knee surgery, but he reports
that he feels great this spring.
Damian Jackson, ss/2b/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 93 22 5 1 2 15 9 1 11 0 21 6 2 .237 .321 .376 .697 12
Prorated SD 475 112 26 5 10 77 46 5 56 0 107 31 10 .237 .321 .376 .697 62
Actual SD 470 120 27 6 6 68 37 3 62 2 108 28 6 .255 .345 .377 .721 67
Although Jackson exhibited very good range at shortstop last year, he
made 19 errors in about a half-season at that position, and that was enough
to convince the team to try him in left field and second base. He made
the adjustment to second base fairly quickly and will be the starting
2B and leadoff hitter in 2001. His on-base percentage isn't really good
enough for a leadoff hitter, but his speed is an asset in that role and
the Padres don't have many other options.
Kevin Nicholson, ss/2b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 70 15 4 0 1 9 8 0 4 0 13 1 0 .214 .253 .314 .568 5
Prorated SD 98 21 6 0 1 13 11 0 6 0 18 1 0 .214 .253 .314 .568 8
Actual SD 97 21 6 1 1 7 8 1 4 0 31 1 0 .216 .255 .330 .585 8
Nicholson showed very good range and very steady hands in a six-week
midsummer trial last year. If defense was his only responsibility, he
would have won the job with that performance. But there's no such thing
as a designated fielder and Nicholson hasn't established that he'll ever
be able to hit big-league pitching. At the moment, he's behind newly-acquired
Santiago Perez on the depth chart.
Desi Relaford, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 529 130 28 4 7 67 57 7 44 3 83 13 7 .246 .310 .353 .663 59
Prorated Phi 279 69 15 2 4 35 30 4 23 2 44 7 4 .246 .310 .353 .663 31
Actual Phi 253 56 12 3 3 29 30 9 48 7 45 5 0 .221 .363 .328 .691 34
Prorated SD 168 41 9 1 2 21 18 2 14 1 26 4 2 .246 .310 .353 .663 19
Actual SD 157 32 2 0 2 26 16 3 27 0 26 8 0 .204 .330 .255 .585 17
Prorated Tot 447 110 24 3 6 57 48 6 37 3 70 11 6 .246 .310 .353 .663 50
Actual Tot 410 88 14 3 5 55 46 12 75 7 71 13 0 .215 .351 .300 .651 50
When you've never batted .250 or slugged .340 in a season, you'd better
be awesome in the field if you want to play every day. But Relaford's
range is below average and he made 31 errors last year, second most in
the majors at his position. As a result, he played himself out of two
starting lineups and is battling for a backup role with the Mets this
spring.
Al Martin, lf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 627 169 35 7 24 101 75 3 59 5 126 23 5 .270 .334 .463 .796 98
Prorated SD 342 92 19 4 13 55 41 2 32 3 69 13 3 .270 .334 .463 .796 54
Actual SD 346 106 13 6 11 62 27 2 28 5 54 6 8 .306 .360 .474 .834 58
Prorated Sea 131 35 7 1 5 21 16 1 12 1 26 5 1 .270 .334 .463 .796 21
Actual Sea 134 31 2 4 4 19 9 2 8 0 31 4 1 .231 .283 .396 .678 16
Prorated Tot 474 128 26 5 18 76 57 2 45 4 95 17 4 .270 .334 .463 .796 74
Actual Tot 480 137 15 10 15 81 36 4 36 5 85 10 9 .285 .338 .452 .791 73
Martin is a subpar defensive player whose bat is good but not nearly
good enough to justify an everyday job at a hitter's position like left
field. He seems best suited to be the left-handed bat in a platoon because
he hit .310 with 15 homers against right-handers and .156 with no homers
against lefties last year. And that's apparently how he'll be used, as
Seattle plans to platoon him with Jay Buhner in left field.
Ruben Rivera, cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 510 101 20 2 26 81 66 5 69 1 159 19 6 .198 .298 .398 .696 63
Prorated SD 415 82 16 2 21 66 54 4 56 1 129 15 5 .198 .298 .398 .696 52
Actual SD 423 88 18 6 17 62 57 10 44 1 137 8 4 .208 .296 .400 .696 51
Every time we publish a projection for Rivera, I always cringe at the
thought of projecting a starter to hit below .200, figuring that anyone
with the ability to hit 20-plus homers off major-league pitchers must
be able to figure out a way to get his average up a little. But year after
year, in the majors and in the minors, Rivera has made contact with many
more air molecules than baseballs. He has good power, walks at the league-average
rate, and plays a superb center field, but that's not enough to make up
for striking out in over 30% of his atbats.
Tony Gwynn, rf, age 40
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 539 176 36 0 16 81 86 2 44 7 26 6 2 .327 .375 .482 .857 95
Prorated SD 127 42 9 0 4 19 20 0 10 2 6 1 0 .327 .375 .482 .857 23
Actual SD 127 41 12 0 1 17 17 1 9 2 4 0 1 .323 .364 .441 .805 20
I hate to say it, but Gwynn's skills have diminished so much that he's
no longer an asset to his team. It's impressive that Gwynn can still hit
over .300 despite his age and a broken-down body -- he's had serious problems
with his feet, knee, back and elbow in recent years -- but his OPS is
only a hair above the league average. Even if his range was acceptable,
you'd still want to get more offense out of your right fielder. But his
range is among the worst in the majors at his position.
When Gwynn stroked his 3000th hit two years ago, he talked about going
for 4000. That milestone is now out of reach -- he's at 3108 now, so he'd
need to average 150 hits per year for six more years. I love listening
to Gwynn talk baseball, and I'm pulling for him to get healthy and show
us something resembling his old self. I doubt that will happen, though,
and I hope he has the awareness to recognize when it's time to hang up
his spikes.
Eric Owens, rf/lf/cf/2b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 110 29 5 1 2 15 14 1 10 0 14 6 2 .264 .328 .382 .710 14
Prorated SD 573 151 26 5 10 78 73 5 52 0 73 31 10 .264 .328 .382 .710 73
Actual SD 583 171 19 7 6 87 51 4 45 4 63 29 14 .293 .346 .381 .727 75
Owens started at least 30 games at each outfield position last year and
was terrific defensively. During the first half he was a good hitter,
too, entering the All-star break with a .327 average and a .383 on-base
percentage. But he batted only .253 in the second half, and that's not
nearly good enough for someone who doesn't walk a lot or provide any power,
and there's nothing in his career record at the major-league or minor-league
level to suggest he'll ever be able to hit better than this.
Owens parlayed his strong first half into a two-year contract extension
worth $3.5 million. That deal was signed last August, before his second-half
slump had gone on long enough to pull his full-season averages down too
far.
Mike Darr, rf/cf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 149 37 9 0 2 20 19 1 15 0 33 4 1 .248 .319 .349 .668 17
Prorated SD 205 51 12 0 3 27 26 1 21 0 45 5 1 .248 .319 .349 .668 23
Actual SD 205 55 14 4 1 21 30 0 23 1 45 9 1 .268 .342 .390 .732 27
Darr is a very good defensive outfielder who probably won't hit enough
to be a topflight starter. His career-high homerun total is 15, and that
was in A ball, so he doesn't have the power to hit in the middle of the
order. His plate discipline is okay but not good enough to make him an
asset at the top of the order. Because he's young, he'll get some opportunities
to develop as a hitter, but I don't think his ceiling is all that high.
But the Padres plan to start him in center ahead of Rivera this year,
so we may find out sooner rather than later.
Kory DeHaan, rf/lf/cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 68 15 3 0 1 9 8 1 5 0 14 2 1 .221 .284 .309 .593 6
Prorated SD 100 22 4 0 1 13 12 1 7 0 21 3 1 .221 .284 .309 .593 9
Actual SD 103 21 7 0 2 19 13 0 5 0 39 4 2 .204 .239 .330 .569 8
Because DeHaan was a Rule 5 draft pick, the Padres had to keep him on
the roster all year to avoid losing him. He played in 90 games but started
only 14 of them, so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that
he was used primarily as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. The
Padres were willing to set aside a roster spot for DeHaan because he had
batted over .300 with an on-base percentage over .400 and 30-plus steals
in each of his last two minor league seasons. He spent most of those two
years in A ball, so he'll probably be sent down to AA or AAA for more
seasoning before getting another shot with the big club.
John Mabry, rf/lf/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 94 23 5 0 2 11 11 0 8 1 19 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 10
Prorated Sea 105 26 6 0 2 12 12 0 9 1 21 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 11
Actual Sea 103 25 5 0 1 18 7 2 10 0 31 0 1 .243 .322 .320 .642 11
Prorated SD 118 29 6 0 3 14 14 0 10 1 24 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 13
Actual SD 123 28 8 0 7 17 25 0 5 0 38 0 0 .228 .256 .463 .719 14
Prorated Tot 223 54 12 0 5 26 26 0 19 2 45 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 24
Actual Tot 226 53 13 0 8 35 32 2 15 0 69 0 1 .235 .287 .398 .685 25
In 1995, his first full season, Mabry batted .307 with the Cardinals.
But his average has dropped every year since then and he doesn't walk
enough or hit for enough power to compensate. Mabry is versatile -- he
can play the corner positions in both the infield and outfield -- but
his playing time will continue to decline unless he turns things around
at the plate, and he's not going to get too many more chances to do that.
He's in camp with the Cardinals this spring.
Key Pitchers
Although the overall results were good -- San Diego allowed 52 fewer
runs than projected -- there wasn't much about the Padres pitching staff
that went as expected last year.
The starting rotation that began the season was quite different from
the one that ended it. Sterling Hitchcock missed the last four months
after elbow surgery. Woody Williams pitched very well but missed two months.
Brian Boehringer missed most of the season. Matt Clement improved in some
ways but suffered from some serious control problems. Brian Meadows was
traded for Jay Witasick; neither was effective. And three newcomers --
Adam Eaton, Brian Tollberg, and Stan Spencer -- came through with some
very solid starts. Eaton's success didn't come as a surprise, but the
other two were much better than expected. Overall, however, the results
were nothing special, as the Padres starters ERA was 10th in the NL.
The bullpen ranked 6th in the NL in relief ERA, thanks mainly to two
guys (setup man Donne Wall and closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman) who
were expected to be very good and one (lefty setup man Kevin Walker) who
came out of nowhere.
Sterling Hitchcock, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.51 32 32 10 13 0 210 208 34 72 171 .259 .770
Prorated SD 4.51 10 10 3 4 0 68 68 11 23 56 .259 .770
Actual SD 4.93 11 11 1 6 0 66 69 12 26 61 .267 .814
Once a highly-touted prospect in the Yankees system, Hitchcock has had
some good stretches but has never really put it all together. His best
season was in 1998 when the Padres went to the World Series, but even
then he started the year in the bullpen before becoming a starter and
posting a 9-7 record with a 3.93 ERA. His career win-loss record of 61-62
and his 4.69 career ERA don't bring images of greatness to mind, and now
he has to come back from surgeries on his elbow and ankle. The best sign
that Hitchcock may be a valuable starter in coming years is the fact that
his last two full seasons, 1998 and 1999, were his best so far. He's not
expected back until the second half of 2001.
Woody Williams, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.74 32 32 10 12 0 194 193 34 72 133 .259 .788
Prorated SD 4.74 27 27 8 10 0 163 162 29 61 112 .259 .788
Actual SD 3.75 23 23 10 8 0 168 152 23 54 111 .239 .701
Williams proved to be the Padres best starter last year despite missing
May and June after doctors surgically repaired an aneurysm in his left
armpit. A few years ago, I wasn't too high on him because he gives up
a lot of homers and didn't earn a permanent spot in a big-league rotation
until two weeks before his 30th birthday. But he has settled into that
role quite nicely, taking the ball every five days (except for those two
months last year) and providing 200 innings per year of very consistent
league-average-or-better results. While he's not a star and isn't likely
to become one, there isn't a pitching staff in the game that couldn't
use that combination of durability, consistency, and performance.
Matt Clement, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.59 32 32 10 12 0 188 189 22 92 146 .264 .773
Prorated SD 4.59 36 36 11 14 0 213 214 25 104 165 .264 .773
Actual SD 5.14 34 34 13 17 0 205 194 22 125 170 .248 .745
That Clement wasn't throwing enough strikes is a bit of an understatement.
He led the NL in walks and wild pitches while finishing second in hit
batsmen. The good news is that hitters didn't do all that much with the
strikes he did throw -- hitters posted a .384 slugging percentage against
him, 48 points below the league average. If he can get straightened out,
he could become very good very quickly. Unfortunately, control has plagued
him throughout his career (4.3 walks per nine innings in both the minors
and the majors before last year), so he may never get past this problem.
Brian Boehringer, middle reliever/spot starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.28 32 32 9 9 0 177 176 23 78 129 .261 .741
Prorated SD 4.28 3 3 1 1 0 17 17 2 8 12 .261 .741
Actual SD 5.74 7 3 0 3 0 16 18 4 10 9 .286 .870
Boehringer was enjoying a so-so career as a long reliever when he was
inserted into the Padres rotation in June, 1999, and responded with a
string of eleven good starts. Only five of those eleven were quality starts,
but five of the others would have met that standard had he pitched the
requisite six innings. Having been a reliever to that point in the season,
the Padres often limited him to four or five innings even when he was
pitching well.
Unfortunately, that 1999 season came to an early end when he had minor
shoulder surgery in August. He was pronounced fit at the beginning of
spring training last year but missed a spring start due to "shoulder
tendinitis." That diagnosis may have been a little optimistic, however.
Boehringer made three in April, spent a month on the disabled list with
a sore shoulder, returned for four relief appearances, then underwent
surgery for a torn rotator cuff.
After the season, he signed a minor-league deal with the Yankees, and
he has pitched well in his first two outings. I believe they're looking
to him for bullpen help, and that seems to make sense in light of his
shoulder problems. It will be interesting to see whether he'll emerge
as a candidate to be the fifth starter, as the others vying for that job
have really been struggling so far this spring.
Brian Meadows, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.73 27 27 6 13 0 159 195 27 47 75 .304 .843
Prorated SD 5.73 22 22 5 10 0 128 157 22 38 60 .304 .843
Actual SD 5.34 22 22 7 8 0 125 150 24 50 53 .301 .905
Prorated KC 5.73 12 12 3 6 0 69 84 12 20 32 .304 .843
Actual KC 4.77 11 10 6 2 0 72 84 8 14 26 .293 .775
Prorated Tot 5.73 33 33 7 16 0 196 241 33 58 93 .304 .843
Actual Tot 5.13 33 32 13 10 0 196 234 32 64 79 .298 .858
Meadows has been durable and doesn't walk many, but his strikes don't
fool anybody. He was second-last in the majors in strikeouts per nine
innings and allowed enemy hitters to bat .301 and rack up a .503 slugging
average.
Adam Eaton, starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.42 3 3 1 1 0 18 17 3 7 13 .250 .751
Prorated SD 4.42 22 22 7 7 0 137 127 22 52 97 .250 .751
Actual SD 4.13 22 22 7 4 0 135 134 14 61 90 .260 .745
Eaton spent the first two and a half years of his pro career in A ball
but then moved rapidly through the system, making the leap from A ball
to AA in the middle of 1999, moving up to AAA two months later, and joining
the Padres at the end of May last year. He made each of these transitions
quite smoothly and was every bit as effective in the big leagues as his
minor-league record suggested he would be.
Brian Tollberg, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual SD 3.58 19 19 4 5 0 118 126 13 35 76 .274 .758
We didn't do a projection for Tollberg last spring because he was awful
in his first shot at AAA in 1998 and had pitched only 34 innings in 1999.
But a strong first half with AAA Las Vegas (6-0, 2.83) propelled him into
the Padres rotation in mid-June and he responded with a very good second
half. His stats normally produce an ERA in the 4.25 range, so he could
pitch just as well in 2001 and see his ERA rise by three-quarters of a
run.
Jay Witasick, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection KC 5.68 32 32 8 14 0 182 208 33 90 143 .288 .849
Prorated KC 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 90 103 16 44 70 .288 .849
Actual KC 5.94 22 14 3 8 0 89 109 15 38 67 .301 .865
Prorated SD 5.68 11 11 3 5 0 63 72 11 31 49 .288 .849
Actual SD 5.64 11 11 3 2 0 61 69 9 35 54 .284 .836
Prorated Tot 5.68 27 27 7 12 0 153 174 28 75 120 .288 .849
Actual Tot 5.82 33 25 6 10 0 150 178 24 73 121 .294 .854
Witasick pitched well down the stretch in 1999, but he got off to a brutal
start last year, and the Royals traded him to San Diego for Brian Meadows.
He wasn't any better after the trade -- the stats may look a little better,
but he didn't have to face the DH with the Padres. He recently signed
a one-year deal for $800,000 to avoid arbitration.
Stan Spencer, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.70 4 4 1 2 0 24 26 5 8 21 .280 .845
Prorated SD 5.70 8 8 2 4 0 47 52 10 16 42 .280 .845
Actual SD 3.26 8 8 2 2 0 50 44 7 19 40 .239 .707
Spencer has bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors for the
past three years, sometimes pitching well but never showing enough to
cement his position with the big club. For instance, he made a few nice
starts with the Padres in 1998 but bombed out with a 9.16 ERA in eight
starts the next year. His results in AAA those two seasons were okay but
nothing special.
But he was brilliant in AAA (4-0, 1.72) to start the 2000 season and
gave San Diego eight very good starts after he was called up in May. Unfortunately,
Spencer's dream season came to an abrupt end five weeks later when he
strained his elbow. That injury was expected to respond to rest and rehab,
but it didn't, and that was it for his season.
Will Cunnane, long reliever/spot starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.69 30 0 2 2 0 40 45 6 19 36 .285 .819
Prorated SD 4.69 28 0 2 2 0 38 42 6 18 34 .285 .819
Actual SD 4.23 27 3 1 1 0 38 35 2 21 34 .241 .677
This was Cunnane's first taste of success at the big-league level, and
it will be interesting to see if the improvement he showed was real or
whether it was just a 38-inning aberration. The Padres weren't impressed.
They sent him to AAA three times last year, brought him back for good
only when the rosters expanded in September, and traded him to Milwaukee
after the season.
Control has been a big problem to this point -- he's walked 83 in 164
big-league innings -- and that's a surprise. In the minors he issued free
passes at only half that rate and posted an impressive 3.4:1 ratio of
strikeouts to walks.
Todd Erdos, long reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYA 6.14 23 0 2 3 0 44 56 8 22 35 .311 .905
Prorated NYA 6.14 13 0 1 2 0 24 31 4 12 19 .311 .905
Actual NYA 5.04 14 0 0 0 1 25 31 2 11 18 .304 .818
Prorated SD 6.14 16 0 1 2 0 31 39 6 16 25 .311 .905
Actual SD 6.67 22 0 0 0 1 30 32 5 17 16 .271 .803
Prorated Tot 6.14 29 0 3 4 0 55 70 10 28 44 .311 .905
Actual Tot 5.93 36 0 0 0 2 55 63 7 28 34 .286 .810
Like most young pitchers, Erdos began his pro career as a starter. But
he was moved to the bullpen before he made it out of A ball and has been
used almost exclusively in relief since then. His minor-league record
doesn't suggest that he'll be anything more than an occasional long reliever
or mopup man in the big leagues. San Diego claimed him on waivers last
year but didn't keep him after the season, and he's trying to land a spot
in the Red Sox bullpen this year. Barring an injury or a trade, that's
extremely unlikely, and he'll probably begin the year in AAA.
Brandon Kolb, middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 4.76 13 0 1 1 0 17 18 2 10 15 .277 .823
Prorated SD 4.76 11 0 1 1 0 14 15 2 8 13 .277 .823
Actual SD 4.50 11 0 0 1 0 14 16 0 11 12 .296 .798
A hard thrower, Kolb was in AA when he was shifted from starting to relieving
in 1998. Since then, his strikeout rate has increased to slightly over
one per inning and he's had some success closing games in AAA. He's now
with Milwaukee.
Carlos Almanzar, middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 5.26 23 0 1 3 0 39 44 9 14 32 .284 .865
Prorated SD 5.26 41 0 2 5 0 70 78 16 25 57 .284 .865
Actual SD 4.39 62 0 4 5 0 70 73 12 25 56 .266 .775
Almanzar has given up a homer every six innings in his big-league career,
and that's the main reason he hasn't had more success even though he has
a pretty good walk-strikeout ratio and doesn't give up too many hits.
His own ERA was better than expected, but he allowed 49% of his inherited
runners to score, and that's not nearly good enough. (The league average
was 35%.) So Almanzar was not used in many crucial situations -- only
20 of his 62 appearances were in tie games or games with the Padres up
by one or two runs.
Matt Whisenant, lefty specialist, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.45 70 0 4 3 1 70 65 5 44 55 .249 .720
Prorated SD 3.45 21 0 1 1 0 21 20 2 13 17 .249 .720
Actual SD 3.80 24 0 2 2 0 21 16 1 17 12 .213 .644
Whisenant's job was to get lefties out, and he did that in fine fashion,
holding them to a .143 average and no extra base hits. He walked 7 of
the 43 LHB he faced, and that must have driven his manager crazy, but
even with those walks, he was exceptionally good when called upon. Unfortunately,
he also walked ten right-handed batters, and those 17 walks in 21 innings
earned him a one-way trip to Las Vegas at the end of May. He's in camp
with the Dodgers this year.
Kevin Walker, lefty setup, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual SD 4.19 70 0 7 1 0 67 49 5 38 56 .206 .619
A year ago, Walker was still stuck in A ball, having spent his first
five pro seasons at that level or below. He was a starter for the first
four years and was moved to the pen for the 1999 season. Things began
to look up for him when he made a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League
that season. Walker started 2000 with AA Mobile but was called up ten
days later. He somehow survived a very shaky beginning -- most pitchers
with no experience above A ball would have been on the next bus out of
town after yielding 13 earned runs in his first 16-1/3 innings -- and
went on to pitch very well the rest of the way.
A lefty, Walker was actually more effective against right-handed batters,
holding them to a .165 average and a .286 slugging average, though he
walked about one out of every five righties he faced. Against lefties,
Walker allowed a .257 batting average but yielded only one homer in 105
atbats while striking out 33 of them. In other words, hitters were able
to accomplish very little when they weren't drawing walks. That suggests
to me that Walker's stuff is good enough to allow him to challenge hitters
a lot more.
Donne Wall, setup man, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 3.60 70 0 6 4 3 100 90 17 40 72 .241 .735
Prorated SD 3.60 35 0 3 2 2 50 45 9 20 36 .241 .735
Actual SD 3.35 44 0 5 2 1 54 36 4 21 29 .193 .579
Wall, who began his career as a starter with the Astros in 1995, battled
injuries for three seasons before he moved on to San Diego. They moved
him into the bullpen and Wall emerged as one of the league's top setup
men, posting an ERA of 2.92 in his three seasons there. Those injury problems
resurfaced last year, however, as Wall spent a month on the disabled list
with shoulder tendinitis and later had to shut down in early September
with more shoulder problems. He had surgery in October to repair his rotator
cuff and then was traded to the Mets for Bubba Trammell. He hasn't yet
pitched in a spring training game.
Trevor Hoffman, closer, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection SD 2.13 70 0 5 4 45 80 57 7 23 85 .199 .584
Prorated SD 2.13 65 0 5 4 42 74 53 6 21 79 .199 .584
Actual SD 2.99 70 0 4 7 43 72 61 7 11 85 .224 .610
Closers don't get much better than this. Hoffman has saved 271 games
in 309 career opportunities for a very impressive success rate of 88%.
He's been very durable, falling short of 60 appearances only in 1994 and
1995, and he would have reached 60 in both those years had the full schedule
been played. He doesn't get himself in trouble, walking only 2.7 men per
nine innings. He has struck out almost four times as many men as he has
walked. And he has been very consistent, posting an ERA under three in
each of the past five seasons. Not surprisingly, he was the highest-paid
closer in the game until Mariano Rivera signed his new deal last month.
Outlook
Although a lot of role players came and went, San Diego didn't make any
major moves during the off-season. So they're counting on the current
nucleus to improve together and gradually climb into the West division
race.
Management was in a tough spot as it debated whether to offer Tony Gwynn
a new contract. He wanted to stay, but he wanted to make good money, too,
and it's far from clear whether he has anything left. But they're in a
public relations battle to get a new ballpark built -- it was initially
approved after the team went to the World Series in 1998 but has run into
some problems since then -- and had to wonder if they could afford to
take the heat for saying good-bye to the best-loved player in the history
of the franchise. They finally agreed on a contract that would pay Gwynn
$2 million with incentives.
Unhappy with their shortstop situation, the Padres traded for Santiago
Perez, who batted .173 in a brief trial with Milwaukee last year and is
also batting .173 so far this spring. They've been talking about making
Perez the starter, figuring that he'll solve the defensive problems they
had at the position last year, but Perez made a lot of errors last year,
and if he doesn't start to hit, they may need to go back to Gomez or Nicholson
at that spot.
Their top prospect, slugging third baseman Sean Burroughs, is only 20
years old, so the club is bringing him along slowly, even stopping short
of inviting him to big-league camp this spring. (Despite being in minor-league
camp, he has played in one spring game so far, going 2-for-3 with a double
and an RBI.) Other budding superstars such as Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez,
and Andruw Jones were given regular jobs at the same age or younger, so
I'm not sure I see the logic in holding Burroughs back. Then again, to
make room for him, they'd have to find another position for him or one
of their two best hitters, Nevin and Klesko, so the fit isn't perfect
at the moment.
Baseball America gives high marks to the Padres for the quality of their
recent draft picks, so the future may be bright for this organization.
But it seems unlikely that they'll be able to make a big move this year.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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