2000 Post-Season Review -- Seattle Mariners
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
March 12, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Seattle Mariners performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 821 907
Runs allowed 753 780
Run Margin +68 +127
Wins 85 91
Pythagorean wins 88 93
Placement 2nd 2nd
In their first full season at very beautiful and very expensive Safeco
Field, the Mariners made the post-season again. For the Braves or Yankees,
the response might well be a jaded "Ho-hum." For a club that had just
endured a traumatic divorce with the greatest player in franchise history,
favorite son Ken Griffey, Jr., playing in October was a definite triumph.
It was also a testament to the club's new leadership.
At the top of the new management pyramid stood Howard Lincoln, new CEO
and chair of the board of directors. Lincoln inherited the thankless job
of trying to re-sign superstars Griffey and Alex Rodriguez, both of whom
were threatening to leave for more lucrative pastures. (How could anywhere
be greener than the Emerald City?) Lincoln's biggest coup was hiring a
new general manager, Pat Gillick.
Gillick replaced Woody Woodward, who had served for more than a decade.
Scorned by many in the game as the worst GM in baseball, Woodward was
unable to take a team that had not one, but three, bona fide franchise
players to the World Series. True, Woodward had guided his charges to
October action in 1995 and 1997, coming within two games of the October
Classic in a thrilling finish to the '95 season. But with the team coming
off two disappointing third-place finishes in the AL West and facing the
imminent defections of Junior and A-Rod, Gillick was brought in to restructure
the team.
Gillick, architect of Toronto's World Championship teams in 1992 and
1993, wasted no time in remaking his underperforming club. His first big
move was to bolster the offense and defense by signing John Olerud to
play first base. He then moved boldly to address the club's bullpen problems
by signing all-time Japanese saves leader Kazuhiro Sasaki and hard-throwing
southpaw Arthur Rhodes within three days in December. A few weeks later,
the durable Aaron Sele was inked to anchor the starting rotation. When
Griffey finally put an end to the "Will he stay or will he go?" soap opera
and forced the team to trade him, Gillick engineered a more than respectable
deal with Cincinnati, given the circumstances.
All of these major deals worked out for the Mariners, but Gillick also
improved the club in smaller ways. Despite a lack of attractive alternatives,
Gillick made a gutsy move at the end of spring training by releasing the
team's regular left fielder, Brian Hunter, a woeful underachiever who
had nevertheless led the AL in stolen bases in 1999. Hunter's immediate
replacements in left weren't much better, but Gillick eventually solved
that problem by signing venerable but difficult Rickey Henderson in May.
Key Position Players
Despite all the attention given to the improved pitching, a persuasive
argument can be made that Seattle's offense deserved equal credit for
the team's AL West title. The M's finished fourth in the AL in runs while
playing in spacious Safeco Field, the closest venue the contemporary game
has to the powerful offensive suppresser of the 1980s known as the Houston
Astrodome.
The biggest factor in the Mariners' attack was, of course, the incomparable
Alex Rodriguez, who turned in his career year in 2000. (Remember that
his stellar 1996 was accomplished in the Kingdome.) Add another brilliant
season from Edgar Martinez and the middle of Seattle's lineup was rough
sledding for even the game's best pitchers.
Of the 11 teams in the majors that hit more home runs than Seattle's
198 dingers in 2000, all but two hit substantially more homers at home
than abroad. (The two that didn't, Cincinnati and San Francisco, hit only
four and six fewer home runs at home.) Seattle hit 92 round-trippers in
Safeco but 106 while away.
Dan Wilson, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 494 126 26 2 12 57 55 4 38 3 85 4 1 .255 .311 .389 .700 60
Prorated Sea 272 69 14 1 7 31 30 2 21 2 47 2 1 .255 .311 .389 .700 33
Actual Sea 268 63 12 0 5 31 27 0 22 0 51 1 2 .235 .291 .336 .627 25
After two productive years in the late 1990s, Wilson's bat has sagged.
He remains praised for his defensive skills and leadership ability, but
down the stretch last year, the older Joe Oliver was behind the plate
more often than not. Wilson, usually a good hitter against southpaws,
did nothing against them last season. Overall it was his worst offensive
performance since 1994; his glove work was okay (30% caught stealing)
but not inspiring. He spent a month in the middle of the season on the
DL with a pulled left oblique muscle, which might have been responsible
for some of his problems. Wilson's overall game has slipped into a mid-career
rut.
Joe Oliver, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 70 17 4 0 2 6 9 0 4 0 14 0 0 .243 .280 .386 .666 7
Prorated Sea 204 50 12 0 6 18 26 0 12 0 41 0 0 .243 .280 .386 .666 21
Actual Sea 200 53 13 1 10 33 35 0 14 1 38 2 1 .265 .313 .490 .803 29
Coming off the scrap pile yet again, Oliver joined the Mariners for good
in June when the club's other catchers hit the disabled list. At this
age, Oliver has only average skills, but for Seattle he played hard and
hit well, especially at home (.365, six homers at Safeco). His performance
bought him at least another season in the majors as a backup, as he inked
over the winter with the New York Yankees.
Tom Lampkin, c, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 67 16 3 0 2 8 9 2 6 1 10 0 1 .239 .320 .373 .693 8
Prorated Sea 105 25 5 0 3 12 14 3 9 2 16 0 2 .239 .320 .373 .693 12
Actual Sea 103 26 6 1 7 15 23 3 9 1 17 0 0 .252 .325 .534 .859 16
Lampkin began the year disabled with a torn knee muscle and ended it
disabled with torn elbow ligament. In between, he played dependably, falling
off from his surprising 1999 batting average of .291 but showing unexpected
pop. Normally a reasonably good defensive player, Lampkin threw out only
26% of basestealers in 2000 -- but knee and elbow injuries are just about
the worst that a catcher can suffer.
Chris Widger, c/1b/rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Mon 492 124 27 2 17 53 69 4 40 1 103 3 3 .252 .312 .419 .731 65
Prorated Mon 285 72 16 1 10 31 40 2 23 1 60 2 2 .252 .312 .419 .731 37
Actual Mon 281 67 17 2 12 31 34 1 29 3 61 1 2 .238 .311 .441 .752 38
Prorated Sea 11 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .252 .312 .419 .731 1
Actual Sea 11 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .091 .167 .364 .530 1
Prorated Tot 296 75 16 1 10 32 42 2 24 1 62 2 2 .252 .312 .419 .731 39_
Actual Tot 292 68 17 2 13 32 35 1 30 3 63 1 2 .233 .306 .438 .744 39
The Mariners acquired Widger in a waiver deal during August but gave
him just 11 at-bats the rest of the season. Widger, who has some power
and can hit lefties (five homers in 77 at-bats last year), may challenge
Dan Wilson for regular duty this season. His throwing (26% of baserunners
nailed) wasn't great, so he'll have to get his stroke back to force himself
into the M's lineup.
John Olerud, 1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 549 168 37 1 22 96 91 9 102 7 64 0 0 .306 .420 .497 .917 118
Prorated Sea 564 173 38 1 23 99 93 9 105 7 66 0 0 .306 .420 .497 .917 121
Actual Sea 565 161 45 0 14 84 103 4 102 11 96 0 2 .285 .392 .439 .831 102
Poor performance at his hitter-unfriendly new home park (.250, eight
homers) and against left-handers (.243) held Olerud's numbers down, but
he again excelled at his specialties -- hitting doubles, drawing walks,
and catching the ball at first base. Olerud is slow but sure. He made
just five errors all year, showed very good range at the bag, and ran
the bases well enough to leg out those 45 doubles. The very durable Olerud
has played at least 154 games each of the last four years. However, his
in-season streakiness was a surprise. He suffered deep and atypical slumps
in May and July before hitting .307 in September. Playing at Safeco, Olerud's
days as a 20-homer man may be over, and his career average dropped to
.299 as a result of his 2000 performance.
Mark McLemore, 2b/lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 569 141 21 3 7 93 50 2 88 1 83 12 5 .248 .348 .332 .681 72
Prorated Sea 489 121 18 3 6 80 43 2 76 1 71 10 4 .248 .348 .332 .681 62
Actual Sea 481 118 23 1 3 72 46 1 81 2 78 30 14 .245 .353 .316 .669 59
One of the game's best hustlers, McLemore gives his all every day. Playing
for a team that ran more often than those of his previous employers in
Texas, Mac ran the bases well and stole often (though only with a mediocre
68% success rate). He has batted .261 or lower three of the last four
seasons, indicating that he is struggling at the plate, but continues
to help his club's attack by drawing walks at a very healthy clip. Despite
his age, middling defense, and injury history, the Mariners have picked
up McLemore's option for 2001. With Bret Boone in the picture, Mac may
end up as a multi-position utility player -- which isn't a bad idea.
David Bell, 3b/2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 544 139 29 2 18 73 66 2 50 2 83 3 4 .256 .317 .415 .733 72
Prorated Sea 461 118 25 2 15 62 56 2 42 2 70 3 3 .256 .317 .415 .733 61
Actual Sea 454 112 24 2 11 57 47 6 42 0 66 2 3 .247 .316 .381 .697 55
Bell doesn't have the range to play second base or the bat to excel at
third, making him an ideal fifth infielder. Unfortunately, the Mariners
didn't have the luxury of spot-starting Bell in 2000; he moved to the
hot corner when Carlos Guillen came up lame. While Bell's defense at third
was above average, his hitting wasn't. Bell's season was worse than it
looks; he saved face by batting .316 in September with five home runs.
He did hit lefties at a .290 clip, but like most of his teammates, struggled
at Safeco Field (.244, four homers). With precious few prospects in the
club's pipeline, Bell may have to play third again for the M's.
Carlos Guillen, 3b/ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 547 133 20 3 14 80 58 4 42 1 94 5 6 .243 .300 .367 .668 60
Prorated Sea 298 72 11 2 8 44 32 2 23 1 51 3 3 .243 .300 .367 .668 33
Actual Sea 288 74 15 2 7 45 42 2 28 0 53 1 3 .257 .324 .396 .720 37
Guillen's two seasons in Seattle have been injury-riddled and disappointing.
He missed two weeks last April with a bad hamstring and didn't clear the
.200 mark until returning in July from an option to Triple-A. Over the
last three months, he batted .289, including a .348 August with 20 RBI.
Switch-hitting didn't help him do much against righties (.244 in 238 at-bats),
but Guillen is still too young to count out as a hitter.
The Mariners will try him this year at shortstop, but most scouts feel
that Guillen can't play the position effectively. A torn ACL suffered
in 1999 cut into his already suspect mobility, and while he showed average
range at third and short last season, his hands and arm were erratic at
both positions.
John Mabry, 3b/rf/lf/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 94 23 5 0 2 11 11 0 8 1 19 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 10
Prorated Sea 105 26 6 0 2 12 12 0 9 1 21 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 11
Actual Sea 103 25 5 0 1 18 7 2 10 0 31 0 1 .243 .322 .320 .642 11
Prorated SD 118 29 6 0 3 14 14 0 10 1 24 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 13
Actual SD 123 28 8 0 7 17 25 0 5 0 38 0 0 .228 .256 .463 .719 14
Prorated Tot 223 54 12 0 5 26 26 0 19 2 45 0 0 .245 .304 .362 .666 24
Actual Tot 226 53 13 0 8 35 32 2 15 0 69 0 1 .235 .287 .398 .685 25
Somewhere down the line, Mabry lost his line-drive power and stopped
hitting for average. He was never fast and no longer contributes enough
off the pine or with the mitt to be valuable. The end of his career may
be coming if he fails this year in St. Louis.
Alex Rodriguez, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 597 175 30 2 40 115 113 7 54 1 108 28 9 .293 .356 .551 .907 117
Prorated Sea 603 177 30 2 40 116 114 7 55 1 109 28 9 .293 .356 .551 .907 118
Actual Sea 554 175 34 2 41 134 132 7 100 5 121 15 4 .316 .420 .606 1.026 150
A-Rod is already the best player in baseball at a very young age. There
is nothing standing in the way of his continued superstardom except a
serious injury. He does everything well both at the plate and in the field,
he runs intelligently, and he's probably even better than his numbers
look. Last season on the road, he hit .356 with 28 homers -- but batted
"only" .272 with 13 dingers at Safeco. He hit .305 against righties and
a stunning .370 with 11 homers in 92 at-bats versus southpaws. Despite
missing two weeks in July with a sprained right knee (he had a torn meniscus
in his left knee in 1999), he finished among the AL's top ten in
runs, homers, RBI, walks, and total bases.
While A-Rod lacks the great range of some other AL shortstops, he does
rate above-average and has very good hands. And when it was time to cash
in, A-Rod did pretty well with the Rangers in December.
Rickey Henderson, lf, age 41
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 539 144 27 0 13 102 54 4 111 1 106 47 13 .267 .394 .390 .784 97
Prorated NYN 102 27 5 0 2 19 10 1 21 0 20 9 2 .267 .394 .390 .784 18
Actual NYN 96 21 1 0 0 17 2 2 25 1 20 5 2 .219 .387 .229 .616 11
Prorated Sea 324 86 16 0 8 61 32 2 67 1 64 28 8 .267 .394 .390 .784 58
Actual Sea 324 77 13 2 4 58 30 2 63 0 55 31 9 .238 .362 .327 .689 45
Prorated Tot 425 114 21 0 10 80 43 3 88 1 84 37 10 .267 .394 .390 .784 76
Actual Tot 420 98 14 2 4 75 32 4 88 1 75 36 11 .233 .368 .305 .673 56
Following several inexcusable instances of jaking and showing up his
manager in New York, Henderson was released on May 13. Four days later
he inked with the Mariners, for whom he helped to fill an ever-present
vacancy in left field. Henderson is no longer a good hitter; his bat has
slowed dramatically. However, he still gets his bases on balls and he
runs effectively if not quite as often as before. Although he played left
field very poorly for the Mets, he showed better range with Seattle and
rates as a key contributor to their division title despite his .238 batting
average.
Unfortunately for Henderson, nobody wanted to give him a chance to play
in 2001 as of early March. Apparently all 30 clubs feel that Rickey's
baggage outweighs his talent, and he may have to retire 86 hits short
of 3,000 and just short of setting all-time records for walks (he's in
second place, two behind Hank Aaron) and runs (he's in second place, 69
behind Ty Cobb).
Al Martin, lf/rf/cf, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 627 169 35 7 24 101 75 3 59 5 126 23 5 .270 .334 .463 .796 98
Prorated SD 342 92 19 4 13 55 41 2 32 3 69 13 3 .270 .334 .463 .796 54
Actual SD 346 106 13 6 11 62 27 2 28 5 54 6 8 .306 .360 .474 .834 58
Prorated Sea 131 35 7 1 5 21 16 1 12 1 26 5 1 .270 .334 .463 .796 21
Actual Sea 134 31 2 4 4 19 9 2 8 0 31 4 1 .231 .283 .396 .678 16
Prorated Tot 474 128 26 5 18 76 57 2 45 4 95 17 4 .270 .334 .463 .796 74
Actual Tot 480 137 15 10 15 81 36 4 36 5 85 10 9 .285 .338 .452 .791 73
Personal problems that began in spring training didn't seem to take away
any of Martin's ability to hit. However, when he came over from San Diego
on July 31, his bat died. Martin was just fair (.253, but with 23 Ks in
22 games) in August, then limped home to a .186 September as AL pitchers
refused to throw him any fastballs. Martin is still helpless against left-handers,
and therefore will be a platoon player at best this year.
Stan Javier, lf/rf/cf/1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 93 27 4 1 1 15 10 1 12 1 14 4 1 .290 .374 .387 .761 14
Prorated Sea 338 98 15 4 4 54 36 4 44 4 51 15 4 .290 .374 .387 .761 53
Actual Sea 342 94 18 5 5 61 40 0 42 2 64 4 3 .275 .351 .401 .751 49
Seeing plenty of action as a fourth outfielder, Javier had another productive
season. He hung in (.302) against southpaws and took plenty of walks.
Turning 37 this spring, his playing time in Seattle may decline; he really
doesn't produce enough at the plate to get this many at-bats. However
he is a smart player with plenty of value if he doesn't have to play everyday.
Mike Cameron, cf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 553 133 30 6 19 88 68 7 71 1 141 34 10 .241 .333 .420 .752 83
Prorated Sea 558 134 30 6 19 89 69 7 72 1 142 34 10 .241 .333 .420 .752 83
Actual Sea 543 145 28 4 19 96 78 9 78 0 133 24 7 .267 .365 .438 .803 94
Playing for his third club in three years, Cameron re-established himself
as a prime offensive and defensive center fielder despite batting a lowly
.220 with five homers in his home park. Improvement against righties (.265)
was the key to his surprising rise in average. Cameron hit .309 with 14
homers on the road, ran the bases well, and chipped in with walks and
extra-base hits. His range was well above average, leaving fans unsentimental
about the missing Ken Griffey Jr.'s defense. While Cameron isn't Griffey
at the plate, he's still a good player and might have another small leap
forward left in him in mid-career.
Jay Buhner, rf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 513 116 18 1 29 75 83 6 102 1 157 0 0 .226 .358 .435 .793 86
Prorated Sea 353 80 12 1 20 52 57 4 70 1 108 0 0 .226 .358 .435 .793 59
Actual Sea 364 92 20 0 26 50 82 4 59 3 98 0 2 .253 .361 .522 .883 69
Making a strong comeback from elbow and hamstring problems that hampered
him in 1998-99, Buhner hit righties for power (21 homers in 275 at-bats)
and lefties for average (.270). He never could run, and now is even slower,
showing poor range in right field but playing errorless ball. Prior to
his elbow injury, Buhner possessed one of the most feared arms in baseball;
since then, runners have taken more liberties, and Buhner threw out only
four runners last year. Signed for 2001, he will probably split time in
left field. Still one of the game's toughest competitors, Buhner has enough
power to help the Mariners' offense again this year.
Raul Ibanez, rf/lf/1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 108 25 4 0 3 13 14 0 8 0 19 1 1 .231 .282 .352 .634 11
Prorated Sea 144 33 5 0 4 17 19 0 11 0 25 1 1 .231 .282 .352 .634 14
Actual Sea 140 32 8 0 2 21 15 1 14 1 25 2 0 .229 .301 .329 .630 15
Ibanez' meager playing time in the last three years has been cut further
by injuries. He was 2-for-15 as a pinch-hitter last season, making him
less than useful off the pine, and batted a surprisingly poor .221 against
right-handers. While Ibanez showed very good range in both left and right
field in 2000, he didn't contribute enough offense when he played to earn
a chance to contribute more. He recently signed a minor-league deal with
Kansas City.
Edgar Martinez, dh/1b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Sea 523 162 34 1 25 84 89 6 94 5 91 2 1 .310 .418 .522 .940 119
Prorated Sea 555 172 36 1 27 89 94 6 100 5 97 2 1 .310 .418 .522 .940 126
Actual Sea 556 180 31 0 37 100 145 5 96 8 95 3 0 .324 .423 .579 1.002 142
2000 was another glorious season for Martinez, who stands head and shoulders
above the crowd as the best DH ever. Leading the AL in RBI, he also lashed
out a surprising 19 four-baggers at home and 18 on the road to produce
his best-ever homer total. He could have been called "Mr. May 2000": during
that month, he batted .441 with ten homers in 102 at-bats. (You may want
to read those totals again.)
An extraordinarily consistent hitter from year to year, he has batted
at least .320 and walked 95 times or more in each of the last five seasons.
Despite not playing regularly in the major leagues until age 27, he will
pass 2,000 hits sometime in early 2002.
Key Pitchers
Seattle's new-look pitching staff posted a 4.49 ERA in 2000, good for
second in the AL and three quarters of a run better than its 1999 performance.
While the improvement was partially the result of playing a full season
at Safeco, there was no question that the days of shuddering when the
M's went to the bullpen were finally over.
The Mariners' rotation took its lumps in more ways than one in 2000,
as veteran Jamie Moyer slumped while promising young starters Freddy Garcia
and Gil Meche suffered injuries. However, with Aaron Sele taking the ball
every fifth day and Paul Abbott surprising everyone by remaining healthy
for a full season, the Seattle staff managed to more than muddle through.
Closer and AL Rookie of the Year Sasaki baffled AL hitters, saving 37
games while blowing only three opportunities. He was ably assisted from
the right side by Jose Paniagua, who matured into a fine setup pitcher
at age 26, and from the port side by the veteran Rhodes.
Freddy Garcia, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 3.80 32 32 12 10 0 194 181 18 85 157 .249 .710
Prorated Sea 3.80 21 21 8 6 0 126 117 12 55 102 .249 .710
Actual Sea 3.91 21 20 9 5 0 124 112 16 64 79 .241 .737
Last April 21, Garcia was shelved with a stress fracture in his right
leg. When he returned from the DL in July, Garcia reassumed his place
as one of the league's best young starting pitchers. His mechanics were
somewhat thrown off by his injury, resulting in below-par control, but
Garcia got stronger as the year went on and was 5-1 with a 2.97 ERA in
September. While Garcia does have five pitches, he lacks a strong offering
to get left-handed batters out. He is death on righties (.205) and, unlike
most of his Safeco-happy moundmates, pitched better on the road (5-1,
3.38) than in home games.
Jamie Moyer, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 3.88 32 32 13 10 0 216 217 24 49 130 .263 .716
Prorated Sea 3.88 24 24 10 8 0 163 164 18 37 98 .263 .716
Actual Sea 5.49 26 26 13 10 0 154 173 22 53 98 .281 .804
Is the man called "Houdini" finally giving away his tricks? Moyer missed
six weeks with a shoulder strain last April and May, but pitched well
after returning in June. However, a six-start stretch from July 29 through
August 24 killed his ERA for the season. He was pounded for 37 earned
runs in 32 innings and went 0-5 in that span, though he is to be commended
for staying in a couple of those games much longer than usual to give
the bullpen a breather. Moyer's command wasn't nearly as sharp as usual,
and he paid for his mistakes. Last season was his first since 1995 that
he had an ERA over 4.00. In road games, he was 7-5, but had a 6.32 ERA.
His offensive support was excellent; in nine of his wins, the M's scored
at least seven runs.
Aaron Sele, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.59 32 32 10 13 0 206 219 21 77 166 .275 .772
Prorated Sea 4.59 32 32 10 13 0 208 222 21 78 168 .275 .772
Actual Sea 4.51 34 34 17 10 0 212 221 17 74 137 .271 .729
Once again, Sele didn't do it pretty, but he did it. Sele is a tough
and smart pitcher who in only six of his starts allowed more than four
earned runs. He has won 67 games in four years, doing it with better-than-average
command of six pitches. Sele doesn't want anyone to hit his fastball,
so he throws plenty of slow curves and goes deep into the count. He has
success against hitters from both sides even though he lacks a dominating
"out" pitch; instead, he moves the ball all over the strike zone and keeps
it down.
Gil Meche, starter, age 21
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.27 32 32 11 11 0 188 173 22 114 119 .246 .752
Prorated Sea 4.27 14 14 5 5 0 82 75 10 50 52 .246 .752
Actual Sea 3.78 15 15 4 4 0 86 75 7 40 60 .240 .682
An overpowering pitcher with excellent velocity and improving command,
Meche will be out for most if not all of the 2001 campaign due to shoulder
surgery. An indication of how devastating his stuff is to hitters is that
he held righties to an amazing one home run in 138 at-bats last season.
John Halama, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.56 27 27 8 10 0 164 175 20 49 101 .275 .767
Prorated Sea 4.56 28 28 8 10 0 172 183 21 51 106 .275 .767
Actual Sea 5.08 30 30 14 9 0 167 206 19 56 87 .308 .834
Halama didn't have a great season, but he did help fill out the Mariners'
rotation. His 2000 decline is largely due to lapses in command; his stuff
is borderline, and he simply cannot afford to make any mistakes
against good hitters. Allowing lefties to hit .343, as they did last year,
and pitching poorly on the road (6.10), Halama has big improvements to
make if he wants to remain a starter.
Paul Abbott, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 3.75 40 0 4 3 0 72 62 10 29 65 .233 .707
Prorated Sea 3.75 10 8 0 184 158 26 74 166 .233 .707
Actual Sea 4.22 35 27 9 7 0 179 164 23 80 100 .243 .729
Abbott turned out to be one of the Mariners' most reliable starters last
year (9-6, 3.98) after moving into the rotation in early May. Freedom
from injury was the key to Abbott's success; he's always had good enough
stuff to pitch in the majors. However, he did struggle with his control,
walking hitters from both sides of the dish, and notched a 5.40 ERA on
the road. Abbott held right-handed batters to a .222 average, which means
that even if he can't remain a part of the rotation, he has value as a
middle or even a setup reliever.
Brett Tomko, long reliever / spot starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.88 4 4 1 2 0 24 26 4 7 18 .277 .809
Prorated Sea 4.87 15 15 4 8 0 93 100 15 27 69 .277 .809
Actual Sea 4.68 32 8 7 5 1 92 92 12 40 59 .264 .775
Lou Piniella brought Tomko up from Triple-A in late April and stuck him
into the rotation. However, he compiled a 5.48 ERA in his eight starts
and wound up the year in the bullpen. Tomko had some stretches of effectiveness
as a reliever, going 3-3 with a 4.02 ERA. While Tomko remains a valuable
property, he is not making it easy on himself; in 2000, his road ERA was
a bloated 6.48.
Frank Rodriguez, long reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.96 34 4 4 5 0 85 92 11 34 55 .278 .791
Prorated Sea 4.96 19 2 2 3 0 49 53 6 19 31 .278 .791
Actual Sea 6.27 23 0 2 1 0 47 60 8 22 19 .317 .902
Rodriguez still has a fine arm and still can't do anything with it. Most
observers believe that he needs an improved mental approach to the game.
Righties, whom he should be able to get out, hit .357 against him in 2000
with six homers in 112 at-bats last year. He is currently in camp with
Cincinnati.
Rob Ramsay, long reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 5.43 53 0 3 5 0 71 79 13 31 52 .282 .840
Prorated Sea 5.43 38 0 2 4 0 52 57 9 22 38 .282 .840
Actual Sea 3.40 37 1 1 1 0 50 43 3 40 32 .234 .695
Ramsay, a former starter in the Boston system, had his ups and downs
last year. At times he was excellent, but at others he experienced crippling
bouts of wildness. He has poor command of four average to below-average
pitches. While Ramsey allowed just five of his 34 inherited runners to
score, the best such mark in the AL, he can't survive for long even as
a one-out matchup guy without an improvement in control.
Jose Mesa, middle reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.34 70 0 3 9 2 93 103 12 45 63 .283 .784
Prorated Sea 4.34 62 0 3 8 2 83 91 11 40 56 .283 .784
Actual Sea 5.36 66 0 4 6 1 81 89 11 41 84 .280 .815
Finally removed from a closer's job that hung awkwardly on him like an
ill-fitting suit, Mesa served as a setup pitcher for the Mariners and
helped out at times. While his command was, as usual, poor, he increased
his strikeouts dramatically and took the ball whenever asked. Mesa was
uncharacteristically ineffective (.296, .863 OPS) against righty batters
last season, but better than usual against lefties. This may be explained
by his increased reliance on sliders. The Phillies have inked him for
this year, and will -- shudder -- throw him into their late-relief mix.
Jose Paniagua, setup man, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 4.50 53 0 4 4 0 70 75 7 37 53 .277 .787
Prorated Sea 4.50 57 0 4 4 0 76 81 8 40 57 .277 .787
Actual Sea 3.47 69 0 3 0 5 80 68 6 38 71 .234 .689
Paniagua showed improved command of his cut fastball and slider, especially
against lefties (.208, one homer), and his improvement was no friendly
home park illusion -- he pitched well both on the road and at home. While
Paniagua showed progress in 2000, he needs further refining of his control.
He goes through long counts and puts too many men on base via the walk.
A competitor who gives everything he has on the mound, Paniagua should
improve as he gains more experience in relief, as he was exclusively a
starter until 1998.
Arthur Rhodes, lefty setup man, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 3.41 70 0 6 3 1 98 81 12 54 102 .226 .706
Prorated Sea 3.41 47 0 4 2 1 65 54 8 36 68 .226 .706
Actual Sea 4.28 72 0 5 8 0 69 51 6 29 77 .205 .603
It's never clear on a given day which Rhodes will show up -- the one
who challenges hitters with his plus fastball and slider or the one who
nibbles, falls behind in the count, and gets lit up. When he's good, he's
dominating; when Rhodes is bad, he's hopeless. And that's the way it's
been for his entire ten-year major-league career. He had great success
with his darting slider and cut fastball last season against right-handers
(.193) and got lefties out at a .220 clip. However, he suffered through
a rough patch in July and August, when he pitched 20.1 innings and was
tagged for 19 runs.
Kazuhiro Sasaki, closer, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Sea 3.91 70 0 4 3 28 71 75 8 31 52 .272 .776
Prorated Sea 3.91 59 0 3 3 24 60 63 7 26 44 .272 .776
Actual Sea 3.16 63 0 2 5 37 63 42 10 31 78 .184 .645
After ten years as a closer with the Yokahama Bay Stars, Sasaki took
over as the Mariners' late-inning go-to guy and experienced a very successful
"rookie" campaign. Sasaki subdued AL hitters with an above-average splitter
and a willingness to pitch inside. He improved as the season went on,
and in September he finished up the regular season in fine style: he pitched
nine times, allowed one earned run, and saved seven games.
However, there are still those who feel that his success will not be
long-lived. When his location wasn't perfect, Sasaki was hit hard; he
had a 4.97 ERA in 29 innings in road games and allowed lefties eight homers
in 116 at-bats (though they batted only .188 against him). Will Sasaki's
splitter continue to frustrate hitters in 2001, or will they lay off it
and make him come in with his fairly straight fastball?
Outlook
Trading Junior for Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko, and two prospects was tough
enough. After losing A-Rod to free agency for a couple of amateur draft
picks, Seattle will find it far harder to bounce back in 2001. The yawning
chasm at shortstop left by A-Rod's departure will be impossible to fill,
so it will be up to other players in the lineup and on the pitching staff
to keep the team in contention.
The Mariners were able to skate over the injuries suffered by their young
pitchers last year, but they probably won't be so lucky this time. Already,
top prospect Ryan Anderson has gone down for the year. Replacing arsonist
Jose Mesa with fireman Jeff Nelson will make the team's bullpen even more
formidable, but Seattle badly needs a healthy Freddy Garcia and comebacks
from one or more of Jamie Moyer, John Halama, and Brett Tomko.
The addition of Bret Boone in the off-season could help, as Boone will
certainly provide more power at the keystone position than Mark McLemore.
However, Boone's range has been below average for a few years and he will
hurt the team in the field if he can't regain his mobility.
Obviously, much of the team's hopes ride on the shoulders of the team's
second high-profile Japanese import, Ichiro Suzuki. Suzuki won seven consecutive
batting titles and seven straight Gold Gloves in Japan's Pacific League,
earning MVP honors three times. At 5-feet-9-inches and 160 pounds, he
isn't going to replace Rodriguez' power, but improving the outfield defense
and getting on base at the top of the order would be big pluses. All of
this assumes, of course, that Suzuki can translate his success in Japan
to similar performance in North America.
Since no Japanese position player has yet been tested in the major leagues,
it's difficult to project what the 27-year-old Suzuki can do. He won't
have much over-the-fence power, so he'll have to work the count patiently,
get on-base, and use his line-drive power to slash doubles and triples
into the large gaps in the Safeco outfield.
The danger is that big league pitchers won't be afraid to challenge him
and won't walk him nearly so often as their Japanese counterparts did.
If Suzuki plays Gold Glove defense in right field and posts an on-base
average of .400 or better with a .300 or better batting average, the Mariners'
prospects look brighter. That level of performance is far from certain,
however.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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