2000 Post-Season Review -- St. Louis Cardinals
By Tom Tippett
March 5, 2001
This article takes a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals preformed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 860 887
Runs allowed 816 771
Run Margin +44 +116
Wins 84 95
Pythagorean wins 85 92
Placement 3rd 1st
The Cardinals led wire to wire in the NL Central race last year. Technically,
there was one day when they weren't in first place, but that's only because
the Cubs began the season with a win in the two-game series in Japan that
was held on March 29-30, a few days before everyone else started playing.
St. Louis swept the Cubs in their first series and never looked back,
pounding 55 homers in April and finishing that month with a 17-8 record
and a 4-1/2 game lead in what had suddenly become a weak division. Although
the Reds hung around for another few weeks, the Cardinals were never seriously
challenged, and they were the first team to clinch a division title.
Key Position Players
The season started with a very loud bang. By sending 55 balls out of
the year in April, the Cardinals lineup threatened to obliterate the record
for homeruns by a team in a season. That was the high point, though, and
things settled down to a more normal pace the rest of the way. Were it
not for two key injuries -- losing Fernando Tatis for two months and Mark
McGwire for the second half -- they would have left their projected runs
total in their rear-view mirror. As it was, they scored 27 more runs than
projected, finishing fourth in the league in scoring and second in homers.
Among the regular starters, nobody had a bad season and most were right
at their established level. The three surprises were all of the pleasant
variety -- J. D. Drew took a very nice step forward, Jim Edmonds had a
career year, and Will Clark was huge after he was obtained in a trade
at the end of July. Those three deserve the credit for pushing the Cardinals
offense to higher levels despite the injuries to McGwire and Tatis.
Eli Marrero, c/1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 479 107 25 2 12 59 57 2 38 6 80 14 4 .223 .282 .359 .641 47
Prorated StL 106 24 6 0 3 13 13 0 8 1 18 3 1 .223 .282 .359 .641 10
Actual StL 102 23 3 1 5 21 17 3 9 0 16 5 0 .225 .302 .422 .723 14
A couple of years ago, Marrero was the Cardinals catcher of the future,
but his inability to produce at the plate has relegated him to a reserve
role. His secondary skills are pretty good -- his power is only a little
below the league average, he takes a decent number of walks, and he's
26-for-30 in stolen base attempts in his career -- so an improvement in
his batting average would go a long way toward making him an everyday
player. Defensively, he's quite good, too, showing agility around the
plate and gunning down 57% of opposing base stealers last year.
Marrero lost a couple of months of his 2000 season when he hurt his thumb
while making a head-first slide. And he missed some time in 1998 while
recovering from surgery on a cancerous thyroid. I don't think we've seen
the best of Marrero yet, and I won't be surprised to see him win the starting
job in the not-too-distant future.
Mike Matheny, c/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 89 21 4 0 2 8 9 1 6 0 18 0 0 .236 .292 .348 .640 9
Prorated StL 426 100 19 0 10 38 43 5 29 0 86 0 0 .236 .292 .348 .640 43
Actual StL 417 109 22 1 6 43 47 4 32 8 96 0 0 .261 .317 .362 .679 47
Until a year ago, I viewed Matheny as a career reserve with adequate
defensive skills and a weak bat that would prevent him from ever making
it into the everyday lineup. But a hot start (.860 OPS in April) garnered
him over 400 atbats for the first time in his career. A strong throwing
performance (nailing 51% of the runners who challenged him) earned him
his first Gold Glove. And a strong finish (batting average over .300 in
both August and September) gained him a lot of attention.
His good fortune ended abruptly when he severed two tendons in his ring
finger on the last Friday of the season and was all but eliminated from
post-season play. And while Matheny was a valuable player last year, I
don't believe he's suddenly going to emerge as one of the better catchers
in the game.
His .261 batting average was a career high, but his power and on-base
skills continued to be well below the league average. Take out those 8
intentional walks -- #8 hitters in the NL always get a few of them, even
if they're not really much of a threat at the plate -- and the sum total
of his improvement at the plate is a few singles. And I think the St.
Louis pitching staff deserves a lot of the credit for stopping the running
game. Before joining the Cardinals, Matheny threw out roughly 30% of enemy
runners, which is right around the league average.
Carlos Hernandez, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection SD 450 125 19 1 13 47 64 8 25 2 61 2 2 .278 .326 .411 .737 55
Prorated SD 196 55 8 0 6 21 28 3 11 1 27 1 1 .278 .326 .411 .737 24
Actual SD 191 48 11 0 2 16 25 3 16 1 26 1 3 .251 .316 .340 .656 20
Prorated StL 54 15 2 0 2 6 8 1 3 0 7 0 0 .278 .326 .411 .737 7
Actual StL 51 14 4 0 1 7 10 1 5 0 9 1 0 .275 .345 .412 .757 8
Prorated Tot 250 69 11 1 7 26 36 4 14 1 34 1 1 .278 .326 .411 .737 30
Actual Tot 242 62 15 0 3 23 35 4 21 1 35 2 3 .256 .322 .355 .678 28
Hernandez was acquired from San Diego to serve as Matheny's backup when
Marrero hurt his thumb at the beginning of July. Of the Cardinals catchers,
Hernandez was the best hitter and the easiest to run on. All things considered,
he was a very good pickup who wound up starting seven post-season games
when Matheny cut his hand right before the playoffs.
Mark McGwire, 1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 487 134 22 1 54 108 127 4 122 19 136 0 0 .275 .421 .657 1.078 142
Prorated StL 253 70 11 1 28 56 66 2 63 10 71 0 0 .275 .421 .657 1.078 74
Actual StL 236 72 8 0 32 60 73 7 76 12 78 1 0 .305 .483 .746 1.229 92
McGwire was enjoying one of his best seasons ever when a case of patellar
tendinitis in his right knee flared up in July. The knee didn't respond
to rest and McGwire was limited to a handful of pinch-hitting appearances
in the second half. If he'd been able to maintain his first-half pace
and play as much as he had in 1999, he would have ended up with 66 homers,
150 RBI, and 156 walks. After the season, McGwire had surgery to repair
the damage and all indications are that he'll be 100% for the coming season.
Will Clark, 1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Bal 506 143 31 0 19 78 71 4 68 6 83 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 88
Prorated Bal 269 76 16 0 10 41 38 2 36 3 44 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 47
Actual Bal 256 77 15 1 9 49 28 4 47 3 45 4 2 .301 .413 .473 .886 54
Prorated StL 171 48 10 0 6 26 24 1 23 2 28 0 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 30
Actual StL 171 59 15 1 12 29 42 3 22 0 24 1 0 .345 .426 .655 1.081 49
Prorated Tot 439 124 27 0 16 68 62 3 59 5 72 1 0 .283 .368 .457 .825 76
Actual Tot 427 136 30 2 21 78 70 7 69 3 69 5 2 .319 .418 .546 .964 103
Clark saved his best for last. Rescued from the chaotic Orioles team
at the trading deadline, Clark went on an unbelievable tear over the past
two months. (Amazingly, as good as he was, his OPS was still over a hundred
points below McGwire's.) Without the 49 runs that Clark created during
that stretch, the Cardinals would likely have held onto their division
title, but they wouldn't have been in a position to challenge for the
best record in the league. Despite all of the good things that happened
to him -- the joy of playing well for a winning team and going to the
post-season -- he decided to call it a career after the season.
Eduardo Perez, 1b/lf/3b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 67 18 4 0 2 9 12 1 7 0 15 0 1 .269 .347 .418 .765 10
Prorated StL 91 24 5 0 3 12 16 1 10 0 20 0 1 .269 .347 .418 .765 13
Actual StL 91 27 4 0 3 9 10 3 5 0 19 1 0 .297 .350 .440 .790 14
Perez spent the first half of the season with AAA Memphis, but hit well
enough there (.289, 19 homers) to earn a promotion to the Cardinals in
late June. That bit of good news was followed rapidly by some bad news
when he strained a hamstring and was placed on the disabled list the next
day. A month after he was activated, he went right back on the DL with
a strained knee. When he wasn't on the shelf, he started 19 games at first
base, mostly before Clark was acquired. Perez turned 31 in September and
has never had more than 297 atbats in a season, but he hits well enough
to be a useful bench player who can step into the less demanding defensive
positions when needed. He has signed to play in Japan this year.
Larry Sutton, 1b/lf/rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 66 15 3 0 1 8 8 0 8 0 11 0 0 .227 .307 .318 .625 7
Prorated StL 29 7 1 0 0 4 4 0 4 0 5 0 0 .227 .307 .318 .625 3
Actual StL 25 8 0 0 1 5 6 0 5 0 7 0 0 .320 .406 .440 .846 5
Sutton spent a total of six weeks with the Cardinals and played only
sparingly in that time. The rest of the year was spent with AAA Memphis,
where he batted .256 and showed very good strike zone judgment (67 walks
in 95 games) and a little power (12 homers). He's a lefty swinger who
had all but three of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Fernando Vina, 2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 610 172 35 3 10 86 55 19 54 1 47 16 11 .282 .357 .398 .756 90
Prorated StL 488 138 28 2 8 69 44 15 43 1 38 13 9 .282 .357 .398 .756 72
Actual StL 487 146 24 6 4 81 31 28 36 0 36 10 8 .300 .380 .398 .779 77
Last January, Vina was acquired from Milwaukee for Juan Acevedo in one
of the most important moves made by any team last year. He was coming
off a poor 1999 season in which knee problems hindered his performance
(.266 average, .339 OBP, virtually no power) and limited him to 154 atbats,
but a healthy Vina upgraded the Cardinals defense and provided them with
a good leadoff hitter. Vina had his second-best season ever, bouncing
back to a level just below his 1998 campaign with Milwaukee. Over the
years, Vina (a lefty batter) has reached base at the same rate against
LHP and RHP, but almost all his power has come against righties, and that
was true again last year. The only negatives in a very good season were
a few minor injuries (hamstring, jammed thumb, sore ribs) that limited
him to 118 starts.
Placido Polanco, 2b/3b/ss/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 71 19 3 1 0 8 6 0 4 0 7 1 1 .268 .307 .338 .645 7
Prorated StL 327 88 14 5 0 37 28 0 18 0 32 5 5 .268 .307 .338 .645 32
Actual StL 323 102 12 3 5 50 39 1 16 0 26 4 4 .316 .347 .418 .765 45
Polanco is a versatile defensive player who filled in at second (32 starts)
when Vina was unavailable, at third (19 starts) when Tatis was injured,
and at short (14 starts) from time to time. His offensive production was
a big surprise -- better than he'd ever done in the minors, where his
career average is .279 with few walks and only 6 homers in 1902 atbats.
It's not unusual for players to add power at this age, but I think it
would be optimistic to assume that he'll continue to hit this well.
Fernando Tatis, 3b/1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 551 157 33 2 25 94 90 10 67 3 127 17 6 .285 .371 .488 .859 101
Prorated StL 343 98 21 1 16 59 56 6 42 2 79 11 4 .285 .371 .488 .859 63
Actual StL 324 82 21 1 18 59 64 10 57 1 94 2 3 .253 .379 .491 .870 60
In 1999, Tatis belted 34 homers and drove in 107 runs. His defense that
season was below average but acceptable for someone who contributed so
much at the plate. Last year, Tatis tore a groin muscle in early May,
spent two months on the DL, and played the rest of the season with limited
mobility in the field. As a result, he ranked second-last (ahead of Dean
Palmer) among regular 3Bs in our defensive range analysis, and LaRussa
opted to start Polanco at third in the divisional series against Atlanta.
Tatis was back in the lineup for the NLCS but was traded to Montreal after
the season in the Dustin Hermanson deal. In January, Expos manager Felipe
Alou was quoted as saying that Tatis would "give us great defense."
He might, I suppose, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Craig Paquette, 3b/1b/lf/rf/2b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 125 32 7 1 5 15 22 1 5 0 26 1 0 .256 .286 .448 .734 15
Prorated StL 395 101 22 3 16 47 69 3 16 0 82 3 0 .256 .286 .448 .734 48
Actual StL 384 94 24 2 15 47 61 2 27 1 83 4 3 .245 .294 .435 .728 49
With Tatis gone, Paquette is the heir apparent at third. His performance
last season -- lousy on-base percentage, good power -- was right in line
with his career averages, so there's little chance the Cards will get
much more out of him in the future. Defensively, he's adequate, but Polanco
is better, and I won't be surprised to see LaRussa go with Polanco from
time to time.
There's no question that, as a group, right-handed batters are better
against lefties and that lefty swingers are more productive against right-handed
pitchers. But Paquette was an exception last year -- he's a righty who
hit much better against RHP. That's not as unusual as you might think.
Over the past three seasons, approximately one-third of all batters who
had at least 100 atbats against both LHP and RHP were more effective against
same-side pitchers. The same proportion of pitchers were more effective
against opposite-side hitters. And that's based on three-year totals for
those players, not single seasons.
So the next time you hear an announcer say that so-and-so is much better
against lefties because he's hitting .335 against them this year, take
it with a grain of salt. Left/right splits are quite volatile, and single-season
splits don't mean as much as some people might have you believe.
Edgar Renteria, ss, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 603 172 31 3 11 99 62 3 59 0 91 38 13 .285 .350 .401 .751 86
Prorated StL 572 163 29 3 10 94 59 3 56 0 86 36 12 .285 .350 .401 .751 82
Actual StL 562 156 32 1 16 94 76 1 63 3 77 21 13 .278 .346 .423 .770 80
Renteria has now completed five seasons as a starting shortstop (the
first three with Florida) and will be only 25 years old going into the
2001 season. Because he has played so much at a young age, the Bill James
career projection system gives him a 13% chance to reach 3000 hits. In
the course of those five years, Renteria has been quite consistent, maintaining
a batting average around .280, getting on base about 34% of the time,
and adding a little more power each season. Defensively, he's gone in
the other direction -- his fielding percentage has dropped every year,
and only two other shortstops (Jose Valentin and Desi Relaford) made more
than his 27 errors last season. For a fielder with average range, that's
not good enough.
Ray Lankford, lf/cf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 559 160 40 1 25 99 95 3 79 5 147 19 5 .286 .376 .496 .871 110
Prorated StL 410 117 29 1 18 73 70 2 58 4 108 14 4 .286 .376 .496 .871 81
Actual StL 392 99 16 3 26 73 65 4 70 1 148 5 6 .253 .367 .508 .874 76
In my comment about Craig Paquette, I cautioned against reading too much
into single-season left/right splits, but this is a case where those splits
are meaningful. Over the past three seasons, Lankford has been much better
against righties -- an OPS that's .261 higher than against lefties --
and only seven other players have had a bigger edge against right-handed
pitchers. As a result, the left-handed-batting Lankford made only eight
starts against southpaws last year. And that was a very good thing, because
he batted only .135 and struck out 37 times in 74 atbats against them.
He's a valuable platoon left fielder, but it was only two years ago that
Lankford was still playing CF and was one of the better all-around players
in the game.
Shawon Dunston, lf/rf/cf/ss/1b/3b, age 37
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 82 23 4 1 2 12 11 1 2 0 13 4 1 .280 .302 .427 .729 10
Prorated StL 218 61 11 3 5 32 29 3 5 0 35 11 3 .280 .302 .427 .729 27
Actual StL 216 54 11 2 12 28 43 3 6 0 47 3 1 .250 .278 .486 .764 25
It seems like Tony LaRussa always has someone on his roster who roams
around the diamond in a super-utility role, and Dunston was that guy last
year. LaRussa pioneered that role with Tony Phillips about a decade ago,
and while Dunston isn't as good as Phillips defensively, he was able to
start at six defensive positions without embarrassing himself.
Dunston started his career as a shortstop with average range and a great
arm. At this stage, he doesn't have the range to play shortstop except
in an emergency, and he has one of the worst walk rates in the history
of the game, but he still has enough pop in his bat to be a useful reserve.
Jim Edmonds, cf/1b, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 564 160 37 1 20 96 77 2 66 4 104 7 6 .284 .360 .459 .819 92
Prorated StL 572 162 38 1 20 97 78 2 67 4 105 7 6 .284 .360 .459 .819 94
Actual StL 525 155 25 0 42 129 108 6 103 3 167 10 3 .295 .411 .583 .994 137
I mentioned earlier that the acquisition of Vina was one of the better
moves that was made by any team last winter, but the trade that sent Kent
Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy to the Angels for Edmonds was even more important.
Not only was Edmonds able to bounce back from the shoulder surgery that
had cost him about half of the 1999 season, he set career highs in on-base
percentage, homers, runs and RBI.
Mark McGwire must have rubbed off on him. Edmonds' walk and strikeout
totals soared to new heights last year, and he put the ball in play on
only 57% of his plate appearances compared with a rate of 71% through
1999. But when he did get the bat on the ball, very good things happened
-- his batting average was .433 when he didn't strike out, and that's
a little more than 100 points better than the rest of the league.
J.D. Drew, rf/cf/lf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 355 91 18 5 12 64 45 5 47 0 75 14 4 .256 .350 .437 .786 58
Prorated StL 420 108 21 6 14 76 53 6 56 0 89 17 5 .256 .350 .437 .786 69
Actual StL 407 120 17 2 18 73 57 6 67 4 99 17 9 .295 .401 .479 .880 84
After a disappointing rookie season in 1999, Drew finally began to deliver
on his vast potential. Like Lankford, Drew was used primarily against
right-handed pitching (only nine starts versus lefties) and was much more
productive against right-handers. His left/right splits aren't as large
as Lankford's, however, and Drew is a better fielder, so I think he'll
be fine as an everyday player. With Eric Davis having moved on to San
Francisco, Drew is slated to be starting in right this year.
Eric Davis, rf, age 38
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 182 53 11 1 8 30 32 1 23 0 45 3 2 .291 .370 .495 .865 34
Prorated StL 256 75 15 1 11 42 45 1 32 0 63 4 3 .291 .370 .495 .865 48
Actual StL 254 77 14 0 6 38 40 1 36 0 60 1 1 .303 .389 .429 .818 43
Davis underwent rotator cuff surgery in August, 1999, so it was far from
clear whether he'd be the same player upon his return. He wasn't the same
player -- his homerun rate has been cut by more than half since he smacked
28 dingers in 1998 -- but he was valuable, posting the third-best on-base
percentage of his career. His primary role was to start against left-handed
pitchers -- he batted .390 versus southpaws -- but he started 28 games
against against RHP, too. Early in his career, Davis was an outstanding
defensive center fielder, but age and injuries have reduced his range
to the point where he was a bit of a liability in right field. He's now
with the Giants.
Thomas Howard, rf/lf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection StL 69 18 4 0 1 8 9 0 6 0 11 0 0 .261 .320 .362 .682 8
Prorated StL 130 34 8 0 2 15 17 0 11 0 21 0 0 .261 .320 .362 .682 15
Actual StL 133 28 4 1 6 13 28 1 7 0 34 1 0 .211 .255 .391 .646 13
It's easy to get fooled by single-season numbers for utility players
like Howard because they don't play very much. He was awful in 1998, posting
a .184 average in 76 atbats. A year later, he batted .292 with a respectable
.353 on-base percentage and a little power. Last year, his average plummeted
but his power was a little better than normal. It's tempting to say he
had one good year sandwiched between two bad ones. But those three years
add up to about 400 atbats, and if he'd been given those 400 atbats in
one season, we'd be talking about one average season instead. Howard is
in camp with Pittsburgh this year, and if he makes the team, it will be
his seventh organization.
Key Pitchers
The lives of people like manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave
Duncan are a lot easier when starting pitchers stay healthy. Only one
member of the rotation (Andy Benes) visited the disabled list, and that
enabled the Cardinals to get 155 starts from their top five hurlers. Darryl
Kile and Garrett Stephenson were a little better than expected, Benes
was a little worse, and Pat Hentgen and Rick Ankiel were right in line
with expectations. So the fact that the Cardinals allowed 45 fewer runs
than projected is largely due to the fact that they didn't need to turn
to second-line pitchers very often -- in fact, Britt Reames was the only
other starter they used, and he pitched very well in his seven starts.
The bullpen was hurt by the loss of Jesse Orosco and bolstered by the
returns of Matt Morris and Mike James. Morris is a former starter who
was used in long relief because he had missed the previous season with
elbow problems and needed time to build up his arm strength. James was
a very successful setup man before he spent the 1999 season on the disabled
list. Dave Veres was quite effective as the closer, but the rest of the
bullpen was mediocre (as expected), finishing 12th in the NL in relief
ERA.
Darryl Kile, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.18 32 32 12 12 0 207 200 22 96 137 .256 .743
Prorated StL 4.18 34 34 13 13 0 221 214 24 103 147 .256 .743
Actual StL 3.91 34 34 20 9 0 232 215 33 58 192 .247 .729
Kile is listed first here, a spot that is reserved for the staff ace,
but it was far from clear last March that he would step into that role.
In fact, this looked like a staff that didn't have a true #1 starter.
Kile had spent the two previous seasons getting his brains beaten in at
Coors Field, and while everyone knew that his numbers would improve significantly
with a return to something approaching sea level, nobody foresaw a 20-win
season.
But Kile got off to a fast start, racking up five quality starts and
six wins in his first seven outings. (The loss was in his only start at
Colorado, a game in which he allowed 11 runs, 8 of them earned, in less
than two innings of work.) He struggled a bit in May but was among the
league's best hurlers after that, going 13-6 with an ERA in the low threes
over the last four months.
His dramatically improved control was the main reason for his success.
Others have explained this change by pointing out that Kile's best pitch
is his big-breaking curve ball, and because curve balls don't break as
much in the thin air of Colorado, he stood to benefit more by a return
to a normal environment. Before signing with the Rockies, Kile walked
4.2 batters per nine innings. In his two seasons with the Rockies, that
rate rose to 4.4, adding some credence to the thin-air argument. But he
walked only 2.3 batters per nine innings last year, and he has never had
a season where is control was anywhere near that good. So there's a lot
more to this story than just an altitude adjustment.
Andy Benes, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.44 32 32 12 12 0 209 208 30 80 160 .260 .762
Prorated StL 4.44 26 26 10 10 0 168 167 24 64 128 .260 .762
Actual StL 4.88 30 27 12 9 0 166 174 30 68 137 .275 .841
Benes received over 7.1 runs per game of support from his offense, so
his 12-9 record masks a disappointing season. Through the All-star break,
Benes was 9-3 with an ERA of 4.47, but the second half wasn't nearly so
kind to him. He spent two weeks on the disabled list with a sore knee
and saw his second-half ERA rise to 5.65 and his record fall to 3-6. Normally
a workhorse, Benes averaged only 6 innings per start and gave the club
only 166 innings last year, his lowest total since 1989, his rookie year.
Pat Hentgen, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.76 32 32 10 12 0 193 206 29 66 121 .275 .784
Prorated StL 4.76 33 33 10 12 0 196 209 29 67 123 .275 .784
Actual StL 4.72 33 33 15 12 0 194 202 24 89 118 .276 .792
Another beneficiary of great run support (6.2 runs per game), Hentgen
gave the team almost 200 innings of work that was right at the league
average for starters and right at the level he established in Toronto.
Hentgen's ERA was about a run lower in the second half than the first,
and his new employers -- the Orioles, who signed him for two years and
$9.6 million -- are undoubtedly hoping that's a good sign for the future.
Rick Ankiel, starter, age 20
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.51 32 32 14 8 0 195 161 19 96 242 .225 .680
Prorated StL 3.51 28 28 12 7 0 172 142 17 85 214 .225 .680
Actual StL 3.50 31 30 11 7 0 175 137 21 90 194 .219 .685
I didn't have a lot of confidence in our 2000 projection for Ankiel because
he was so young and had only thrown 170 innings above A ball through 1999,
most of it in the minors. So I was pleasantly surprised to see that his
performance was right in line with what he had done in those 170 innings.
As everyone knows, the big question about Ankiel is how well he'll bounce
back from a bad case of Steve Blass disease -- a complete inability to
throw the ball anywhere near the strike zone -- that he suffered during
the playoffs last year. If he can put that out of his mind and build on
his regular-season success, we're going to have a lot of fun watching
this guy for the next twenty years.
Garrett Stephenson, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 5.32 11 11 4 5 0 69 77 11 27 48 .282 .822
Prorated StL 5.32 31 31 11 14 0 193 215 31 75 134 .282 .822
Actual StL 4.49 32 31 16 9 0 200 209 31 63 123 .270 .793
Just when it seemed as if Stephenson's career was finally getting started
in a meaningful way, he suffered a setback. As last season was winding
down, he began to experience "fatigue" that caused him to miss
a September start and limited him to one brief post-season outing. Now
he's experiencing elbow pain that could lead to surgery that would sideline
him for the year.
Stephenson's 16-9 record was helped greatly by the 6.9 runs per game
his offense provided, and his .793 OPS allowed was a little worse than
the league average despite walking only 2.8 batters per nine innings.
So he wasn't a great pitcher last year. But anytime you can get 200 solid
innings out of your #4 starter, you've got to be happy.
Britt Reames, starter, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual StL 2.88 8 7 2 1 0 41 30 4 23 31 .207 .683
A year ago, Reames was a 26-year-old who had yet to make it past A ball
because Tommy John surgery had cost him two full seasons (1997 and 1998)
and part of a third (1999). But he had pitched very well at that level,
both before and after the injury, and began the 2000 season with AA Arkansas.
After eight starts there, Reames stepped up to AAA Memphis and was fantastic
-- 6-2, 2.28 ERA, 55 hits allowed in 75 innings, and a 20:77 walk-strikeout
ratio. That performance earned him another promotion, this time to St.
Louis, where he provide seven key starts down the stretch and pitched
very well in relief of Rick Ankiel in game two of the division series.
His "reward" was to be included in the trade that brought Dustin
Hermanson to the Cards, so Reames will now battle for a spot in the rotation
with the Expos.
Matt Morris, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.71 16 16 7 5 0 107 102 8 37 77 .254 .682
Prorated StL 3.71 8 8 4 3 0 54 51 4 19 39 .254 .682
Actual StL 3.57 31 0 3 3 4 53 53 3 17 34 .261 .712
As a rookie in 1997, Morris went 12-9 with a 3.19 ERA and tied for second
in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He missed the first half of the
1998 season with a sore shoulder but pitched very well the rest of the
way. Then he missed all of 1999 and the first half of 2000 with a serious
elbow injury. But it looks as if he's all the way back, and he's slated
to be back in the rotation this year.
Alan Benes, long reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.40 53 0 4 2 0 56 51 5 25 51 .244 .693
Prorated StL 3.40 47 0 4 2 0 50 46 4 22 46 .244 .693
Actual StL 5.67 30 0 2 2 0 46 54 7 23 26 .290 .840
Like Morris, Benes was a very promising young pitcher who has been waylaid
by injuries for two-plus seasons. The high point of his career was a 2.89
ERA in 23 starts for the Cards in 1997, a season that was cut short by
rotator cuff surgery. Benes missed all of 1998, pitched only two innings
in 1999, and began the 2000 season rehabbing with AAA Memphis. He wasn't
especially effective there (5.95 ERA) but was recalled anyway. Unlike
Morris, Benes has yet to show that he can regain his peak form.
Heathcliff Slocumb, middle reliever, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 4.39 70 0 5 5 2 92 98 8 53 80 .274 .780
Prorated StL 4.39 36 0 3 3 1 48 51 4 28 42 .274 .780
Actual StL 5.44 43 0 2 3 1 50 50 9 24 34 .266 .796
Prorated SD 4.39 15 0 1 1 0 20 21 2 11 17 .274 .780
Actual SD 3.79 22 0 0 1 0 19 19 0 13 12 .264 .767
Prorated Tot 4.39 52 0 4 4 1 68 72 6 39 59 .274 .780
Actual Tot 4.98 65 0 2 4 1 69 69 9 37 46 .265 .788
Slocumb has been traded in mid-season four times, and he's been much
better with his second team on three of those occasions. Over the past
five years, his ERA has been 5.76 before the break and 3.03 after. So
you can see why he'd be traded a lot -- those ups and downs create demand
from teams hoping to get more of the good Heathcliff and a willingness
to move him by teams who have seen him struggle for months at a time.
His stay in San Diego was brief; Slocumb signed a minor-league deal with
the Cardinals for 2001.
Mark Thompson, middle reliever, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 5.75 34 4 3 5 0 61 69 9 33 34 .286 .857
Prorated StL 5.75 14 2 1 2 0 25 28 4 13 14 .286 .857
Actual StL 5.04 20 0 1 1 0 25 24 4 15 19 .250 .792
Thompson had very little success as a starting pitcher and had struggled
with his control in recent years, so the Cards tried him as a reliever
for the first time in his career. That didn't work either, and Thompson
spent most of the year on the disabled list (groin) or in the minors (where
he was used as a starter).
Jason Christiansen, lefty specialist, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Pit 2.75 70 0 5 2 1 75 62 5 33 73 .225 .644
Prorated Pit 2.75 36 0 3 1 1 39 32 3 17 38 .225 .644
Actual Pit 4.97 44 0 2 8 1 38 28 2 25 41 .207 .633
Prorated StL 2.75 10 0 1 0 0 11 9 1 5 11 .225 .644
Actual StL 5.40 21 0 1 0 0 10 13 1 2 12 .317 .841
Prorated Tot 2.75 47 0 3 1 1 50 41 3 22 49 .225 .644
Actual Tot 5.06 65 0 3 8 1 48 41 3 27 53 .233 .681
Christiansen's season was better than his ERA makes it look. Any time
you hold opposing hitters to a .207 average and yield only two homers
in 38 innings, you're doing something right. Control has always been an
issue for him -- he had walked 4.5 batters per nine innings through 1999
-- and it became more of an issue last year. If he doesn't succumb to
the back and neck spasms that have plagued him periodically since the
1999 season, he could be a very useful reliever for the Cardinals this
year.
Jesse Orosco, lefty specialist, age 43
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.14 70 0 3 2 1 49 40 6 28 48 .225 .707
Prorated StL 3.14 5 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 4 .225 .707
Actual StL 3.86 6 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3 4 .273 1.045
Orosco, the oldest player in the game today, has had a remarkable career,
and not just because it dates all the way back to his rookie season in
1979. Perhaps best remembered as part of a strong left/right closer tandem
with the Mets in the mid-1980s, when he earned 102 saves in five seasons,
Orosco was still dominating lefty hitters as recently as 1998. His 1999
season was mediocre, and his 2000 season was wiped out by an elbow strain
(putting him on the disabled list for the first time), so it's far from
clear that he has anything left. He's not ready to hang it up, though,
and he's in camp trying to win a job with the Dodgers.
Mike James, setup man, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 5.82 13 0 1 1 0 17 20 2 8 13 .299 .854
Prorated StL 5.82 36 0 3 3 0 46 55 5 22 36 .299 .854
Actual StL 3.16 51 0 2 2 2 51 40 7 24 41 .219 .689
James was enjoying a lot of success as a setup man with Anaheim when
elbow problems began to appear in the middle of the 1997 season. The elbow
bothered him for the rest of that season, limited him to 14 innings in
1998, and wiped out his 1999 campaign entirely. So it was nice to see
him bounce back to peak form after enduring all that.
Mike Timlin, setup man/closer, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Bal 3.43 70 0 4 6 29 76 71 9 23 55 .250 .700
Prorated Bal 3.43 35 0 2 3 14 38 35 4 11 27 .250 .700
Actual Bal 4.89 37 0 2 3 11 35 37 6 15 26 .276 .803
Prorated StL 3.43 31 0 2 3 13 33 31 4 10 24 .250 .700
Actual StL 3.34 25 0 3 1 1 30 30 2 20 26 .265 .736
Prorated Tot 3.43 66 0 4 6 27 71 66 8 22 52 .250 .700
Actual Tot 4.18 62 0 5 4 12 65 67 8 35 52 .271 .773
Control has always been Timlin's strong suit, but he walked 20 in 30
innings with the Cardinals. Those walks didn't hurt him too much, however,
and his arrival from Baltimore in late July added some needed depth to
the middle-relief corps. Timlin has been looked upon as a potentially
very good closer for several years, and while he has had some success
in that role (99 saves in 134 chances since 1996), his save percentage
(74%) has been subpar, and he may not get any more chances to be a full-time
closer.
Dave Veres, closer, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection StL 3.41 70 0 4 6 31 74 70 8 30 68 .251 .713
Prorated StL 3.41 69 0 4 6 31 73 69 8 30 67 .251 .713
Actual StL 2.85 71 0 3 5 29 76 65 6 25 67 .239 .675
Veres, who spent his first four seasons with the Expos, emerged as a
top reliever when he posted a 2.83 ERA in 76 inning with the Rockies in
1998. That fine performance earned him a promotion to the closer role
in 1999, and he responded with a very respectable 31 saves in 39 chances
that season. The Cardinals picked him up in a six-player trade after the
1999 season, and he established himself as the team's closer with another
strong effort last year.
Outlook
Offensively, there may not be a lot of room for improvement over last
year. Yes, they should have Mark McGwire for the full season, but Will
Clark was so good in his absence last year that the room for improvement
at that position is much less than would normally be the case when someone
like McGwire misses half the season. Vina is coming off one of his best
years. The loss of Tatis could hurt them at third. In the outfield, Lankford
hasn't been hitting lefties and Jim Edmonds will be hard-pressed to top
or even match what he did last year. There is, however, a good chance
that Drew (and possibly Renteria) will continue to develop, and they may
get a little more offense from the catcher position. All in all, I think
the team would be happy to match last season's scoring output.
On the mound, the big questions are whether Ankiel can overcome his post-season
bout of wildness and whether Dustin Hermanson can put it all together.
Ankiel may be the best young pitcher in the game and Hermanson has a lot
of talent, though he's coming off two league-average seasons that represent
a step back from where he was in 1997-98. If both of those guys are on
their games this year, and if Morris can take his regular turn, the Cardinals
will have a very good rotation even though Stephenson may be done for
the year. If the rotation is solid and Veres remains steady as the closer,
the rest of their so-so bullpen shouldn't hurt them too much.
Except for the left/right mix, their off-season losses shouldn't hurt
the team too much. Eric Davis and Shawon Dunston have moved on to San
Francisco and Tatis was traded for Hermanson, but the rest of the 2000
team is intact. The concern is that all three of the departing players
are right-handed batters, and that leaves the Cardinals with three lefties
in the outfield, two of whom (Lankford and Drew) didn't hit left-handers
very well last year.
The only major acquisition was Hermanson, and there are no minor-league
prospects who are expected to make an impact this year, so the outlook
for the 2001 Cardinals will hinge mostly on the ability of their current
roster to repeat and build upon their success of a year ago. That's not
a sure thing, but I think they're a very good bet to repeat as division
champs.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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