2000 Post-Season Review -- Tampa Bay Devil Rays
By Zack Scott and Tom Tippett
March 14, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Tampa Bay Devil Rays performed in
the 2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of
the approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 791 733
Runs allowed 909 842
Run Margin -118 -109
Wins 71 69
Pythagorean wins 70 69
Placement 5th 5th
Management had high hopes for the 2000 season, having acquired Greg Vaughn
and Vinny Castilla to create what they thought would be a modern-day murderer's
row along with Jose Canseco and Fred McGriff. Despite these additions,
however, our pre-season computer simulations of the 2000 season pegged
them for 71 wins and last place.
Those simulations indicated that even if Canseco and Vaughn were as productive
as expected, the offense would fail to score a lot more runs because (a)
Castilla's departure from Coors Field would expose him as a mediocre power
hitter, (b) McGriff couldn't be expected to repeat his surprisingly good
1999 campaign, and (c) even if these guys did hit a lot of homers, there
wouldn't be enough men on base to make them count.
We also pointed out that their additions to the pitching staff -- Juan
Guzman, Steve Trachsel, and John Burkett -- were unlikely to be able to
do much more than replace the departed Rolando Arrojo. And that their
highly-touted prospect Dan Wheeler had been giving up far too many homeruns
to be considered as a potential savior this early in his career.
Most of that proved to be prophetic. The retooled offense was awful,
and while the pitching was better than expected, it wasn't because of
Wheeler or the guys they acquired before the season (though Trachsel had
some success before he was traded to Toronto). And they were out of the
race before it even started, going 9-15 in April and 8-19 in May to fall
13-1/2 games behind the division leader going into June. After that, things
stabilized a little and the team was only six games below .500 the rest
of the way.
Key Position Players
GM Chuck LaMar brought in Vaughn and Castilla to provide improved power
on a team that finished the previous year with the second-fewest homeruns
in the AL, but he neglected to find players who could get on base in front
of them. Even though Castilla's season was mostly lost to injury, the
2000 edition of the Devil Rays did indeed hit more homeruns, but there
were few if any other improvements. They finished last in the league in
runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Only McGriff and Vaughn could even be considered average at their positions.
In the field, the Rays made 17 fewer errors than the previous year and
had average team range.
John Flaherty, c, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 479 126 21 0 13 51 63 4 32 1 69 0 1 .263 .310 .388 .699 56
Prorated Tam 381 100 17 0 10 41 50 3 25 1 55 0 1 .263 .310 .388 .699 44
Actual Tam 394 103 15 0 10 36 39 0 20 2 57 0 0 .261 .296 .376 .671 42
Following his best all-around season in 1999, Flaherty cashed in by signing
a three-year, $9 million contract. Tampa Bay unwisely tied up a catcher whose
best offensive numbers are below average for his position. In 2000,
he performed slightly worse than expected and almost cut his RBI total
in half as compared to the previous year. Among AL catchers with at least
300 plate appearances, only Dan Wilson of Seattle had a lower OPS than
Flaherty. Behind the plate, he threw out only 25% of attempted base stealers,
and they ran often (only Jason Varitek faced more steal attempts among
AL catchers).
Mike DiFelice, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 89 23 5 0 2 8 11 1 6 0 16 0 0 .258 .313 .382 .695 10
Prorated Tam 205 53 11 0 5 18 25 2 14 0 37 0 0 .258 .313 .382 .695 23
Actual Tam 204 49 13 1 6 23 19 0 12 0 40 0 0 .240 .280 .402 .682 21
Flaherty's decline in performance resulted in more playing time for DiFelice,
but he failed to do much better. After an impressive 1999 performance,
DiFelice continued to put up relatively good numbers through the season's
first half (.813 OPS), but his offense disappeared after the break (.528).
Overall, the increase in playing time resulted in a 67-point decline in
batting average and offensive production equally as disappointing as Flaherty's.
In fact, DiFelice and Flaherty are essentially carbon copies -- they're
both average-at-best defensive catchers in their early thirties with little
plate discipline, below-average power, and a virtually identical career
OPS (.672 for Flaherty and .674 for DiFelice). Given Flaherty's much-higher
salary, the Devil Rays would probably benefit by dumping him on a wealthy
team in need of catching (LA comes to mind) and going with DiFelice and
top prospect Toby Hall.
Fred McGriff, 1b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 549 160 28 0 30 78 96 2 80 8 110 2 0 .291 .381 .506 .887 107
Prorated Tam 574 167 29 0 31 82 100 2 84 8 115 2 0 .291 .381 .506 .887 112
Actual Tam 566 157 18 0 27 82 106 0 91 10 120 2 0 .277 .373 .452 .826 98
At age 36, McGriff quietly plugged along, driving in 100+ RBI for the
second straight year and sixth time in his career. Since his rookie season
in 1987, he has knocked in at least 80 runs each year, placing him 7th
among active players in career RBI. Last season, McGriff surpassed the
400 homerun plateau, but his doubles power was worse than ever (lowest
2B total since rookie year), and his resulting offensive production was
only average among AL first basemen. He enters 2001 in the final year
of his contract.
Miguel Cairo, 2b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 648 184 29 6 7 84 60 8 38 0 62 28 10 .284 .329 .380 .709 81
Prorated Tam 382 108 17 4 4 49 35 5 22 0 37 16 6 .284 .329 .380 .709 48
Actual Tam 375 98 18 2 1 49 34 2 29 0 34 28 7 .261 .314 .328 .642 42
Since being drafted by the Devil Rays in the 1998 expansion draft, Cairo's
playing time has decreased each season, and Tampa Bay granted him free agency
by not tendering a contract after the season. Although he's one of the
league's best base stealers and sure-handed second basemen (3rd best fielding
percentage), Cairo experienced a drop in batting average and extra-base
power, and only Homer Bush had a lower OPS among AL second sackers. This
winter, Oakland signed Cairo to a minor-league contract as defensive insurance
for rookie Jose Ortiz.
Bobby Smith, 2b/3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 67 17 3 0 2 9 10 1 7 0 18 1 1 .254 .333 .388 .721 8
Prorated Tam 171 43 8 0 5 23 25 3 18 0 46 3 3 .254 .333 .388 .721 21
Actual Tam 175 41 8 0 6 21 26 1 14 1 59 2 2 .234 .293 .383 .676 18
The Rays called Smith up in June and moved him from third to second in
an attempt to get more power from their middle infielders. The plan paid
immediate dividends as Smith batted .311 and slugged .500 before spraining
his right knee's medial collateral ligament in early July. After his late-August
return, Smith hit .178 and slugged .297 thanks to an ugly month-long slump
that included a 6-for-67 stretch with 31 strikeouts. Despite three disappointing
seasons, Tampa Bay is giving him a chance to battle top prospect Brent Abernathy
for the starting job at second.
Vinny Castilla, 3b, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 534 136 21 1 25 70 85 4 43 6 78 2 3 .255 .313 .438 .751 69
Prorated Tam 323 82 13 1 15 42 51 2 26 4 47 1 2 .255 .313 .438 .751 42
Actual Tam 331 73 9 1 6 22 42 3 14 3 41 1 2 .221 .254 .308 .562 24
Castilla would like to forget his first season in the American League.
He began the year on the disabled list with a strained oblique muscle
and was disabled two more times (lower back) later in the year. Castilla
easily produced the worst offensive numbers among major-league third basemen
and had the lowest OPS among all AL players with at least 350 plate
appearances. He was coming off four consecutive years with 100+ RBI and
had averaged 40 homeruns per year in that time, but his 1999 numbers dropped
significantly and were not impressive by Colorado standards. He played
well in winter ball and is reportedly determined to make a comeback this
season, but the Rays have Aubrey Huff waiting in the wings should Castilla
falter.
Aubrey Huff, 3b, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 68 18 5 0 3 10 9 0 7 0 10 0 0 .265 .333 .471 .804 10
Prorated Tam 117 31 9 0 5 17 15 0 12 0 17 0 0 .265 .333 .471 .804 18
Actual Tam 122 35 7 0 4 12 14 1 5 1 18 0 0 .287 .318 .443 .760 16
Huff moved up to his third level in three minor-league seasons and tore
up Triple-A pitching, earning him a big-league callup when Castilla went
on the DL in August. In the majors, Huff hit with less power and walked
about one third as often as in the minors but still provided a huge offensive
upgrade over Castilla. In the field, Huff was shaky, committing errors
at a rate that would have rivaled Troy Glaus (who 'led' the league with
33 errors) had it continued over a full season. If Castilla cannot improve
on his dreadful 2000 campaign and they feel the left-handed-hitting Huff
is ready to face southpaws regularly (only 12 atbats versus LHP), don't
be surprised to see the Rays deal Castilla away and hand the job to Huff.
Russ Johnson, 3b/2b/ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Hou 63 17 4 0 1 11 8 0 10 0 10 1 1 .270 .365 .381 .746 9
Prorated Hou 40 11 3 0 1 7 5 0 6 0 6 1 1 .270 .365 .381 .746 6
Actual Hou 45 8 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 0 10 1 1 .178 .213 .178 .391 1
Prorated Tam 181 49 11 0 3 32 23 0 29 0 29 3 3 .270 .365 .381 .746 27
Actual Tam 185 47 8 0 2 28 17 1 25 0 30 4 1 .254 .344 .330 .674 23
Prorated Tot 221 60 14 0 4 39 28 0 35 0 35 4 4 .270 .365 .381 .746 33
Actual Tot 230 55 8 0 2 32 20 1 27 0 40 5 2 .239 .320 .300 .620 23
At the end of May, Tampa Bay acquired Johnson from the Astros for pitcher
Marc Valdes in order to provide defensive stability for the injury-plagued
Castilla and their weak-hitting middle infielders. Johnson provided good
glove work at three positions and was more successful at the plate following
the trade, but he still hit for a lower average and with less pop than
normal. This spring, Johnson is fighting to be a part of the Abernathy/Smith
group at second.
Kevin Stocker, ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 474 124 19 3 7 63 47 7 48 2 90 10 6 .262 .338 .359 .696 58
Prorated Tam 121 32 5 1 2 16 12 2 12 1 23 3 2 .262 .338 .359 .696 15
Actual Tam 114 30 7 1 2 20 8 2 19 0 27 1 2 .263 .378 .395 .773 17
Prorated Ana 240 63 10 2 4 32 24 4 24 1 46 5 3 .262 .338 .359 .696 30
Actual Ana 229 45 13 3 0 21 16 2 32 0 54 0 3 .197 .299 .279 .579 19
Prorated Tot 361 94 14 2 5 48 36 5 37 2 69 8 5 .262 .338 .359 .696 44
Actual Tot 343 75 20 4 2 41 24 4 51 0 81 1 5 .219 .326 .318 .644 36
Stocker may be best known for being part of the franchise's biggest bonehead
move -- before their inaugural 1998 season, Tampa Bay acquired him from
Philly for Bobby Abreu. Since then, Abreu has gone on to become one of
the game's best all-around players while Stocker has yet to play more
than 112 games in a season and hasn't produced when available. Last year,
he was enjoying his best season at the plate but made 11 errors in 40
games, an unacceptable rate that led to his release at the end of May.
Desperately in need of a shortstop, the Angels picked up Stocker, and
while his defense improved, he was worse than ever at the plate. The Mets
recently invited him to camp, but Stocker said he didn't have the desire
to get his knees (bothered by tendinitis over the last two seasons) and
the rest of his body in shape. He retired at age 31.
Felix Martinez, ss, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 66 15 4 1 0 9 6 1 6 0 13 2 1 .227 .301 .318 .620 7
Prorated Tam 311 71 19 5 0 42 28 5 28 0 61 9 5 .227 .301 .318 .620 31
Actual Tam 299 64 11 4 2 42 17 8 32 0 68 9 3 .214 .305 .298 .603 31
In early April, the Devil Rays claimed Martinez on waivers from Philly
and later called him up (following Stocker's release) in an effort to
bring defensive stability to short. Despite his very good defense, Martinez
hasn't been given much of a chance at the major-league level because he
can't hit and his maturity is questionable -- he lost a lot of respect
for taking cheap shots in a brawl that occurred during his Kansas City
days. Basically, Martinez is Rey Ordonez without the flair and the New
York spotlight, and like Ordonez, his defense isn't good enough to make
up for his bat. And Tampa Bay doesn't have the kind of lineup that can
afford to carry a guy like this.
Ozzie Guillen, ss/3b/1b/2b, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Tam 107 26 4 0 2 22 12 0 6 0 7 1 0 .243 .283 .336 .620 10
The Braves released Guillen at the start of the season to make room for
Rafael Furcal, and Tampa Bay picked him up shortly after. The once-great defensive
shortstop has never had much if any offensive value and now has no business
being in the field. Guillen signed on for another year and will fill a
utility role if he makes the team.
Greg Vaughn, lf/dh, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 541 138 24 2 41 103 111 4 78 3 121 10 3 .255 .351 .534 .885 105
Prorated Tam 470 120 21 2 36 90 96 3 68 3 105 9 3 .255 .351 .534 .885 91
Actual Tam 461 117 27 1 28 83 74 2 80 3 128 8 1 .254 .365 .499 .864 88
Tampa Bay signed Vaughn to a four-year, $34 million contract with the hope
that he could hit 45+ homers as he had the two previous seasons, but hamstring
and shoulder injuries limited him to 127 games and robbed him of some
power. On the plus side, he walked at his best rate ever, resulting in
his highest on-base percentage in seven years. When he's healthy, Vaughn
is the only Devil Ray position player that can be considered one of the
league's best at his position. Before he injured his hamstring in June,
Tampa Bay's investment was paying off in spades. Vaughn finished May with
a .298 batting average and 13 dingers, but his nagging injuries resulted
in a major decline the rest of the way (.225, 15).
Quinton McCracken, lf/cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 577 160 30 4 8 82 63 3 54 0 99 21 12 .277 .340 .385 .724 74
Prorated Tam 33 9 2 0 0 5 4 0 3 0 6 1 1 .277 .340 .385 .724 4
Actual Tam 31 4 0 0 0 5 2 0 6 0 4 0 1 .129 .270 .129 .399 1
Often overrated in Colorado, McCracken was handed the starting CF job
in Tampa Bay's first season and showed that he couldn't get on base, hit for
power, steal bases at an above-average rate, or play the position. The
following year, his season was cut short when he tore his ACL running
into a wall. McCracken expected to be healthy in 2000 but had even less
mobility in the outfield and lost his job to newly-acquired Gerald Williams.
He had four brief stints with the Rays but performed horribly and was
not tendered a contract after the season. McCracken is currently trying
to earn a spot on the Cardinals roster as a fifth outfielder.
Bubba Trammell, lf/rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 108 30 7 0 6 17 18 0 13 0 20 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 20
Prorated Tam 189 52 12 0 10 30 31 0 23 0 35 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 35
Actual Tam 189 52 11 2 7 19 33 2 21 0 30 3 0 .275 .352 .466 .818 32
Prorated NYN 58 16 4 0 3 9 10 0 7 0 11 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 11
Actual NYN 56 13 2 0 3 9 12 0 8 0 19 1 0 .232 .323 .429 .752 8
Prorated Tot 246 68 16 0 14 39 41 0 30 0 46 0 0 .278 .352 .509 .862 45
Actual Tot 245 65 13 2 10 28 45 2 29 0 49 4 0 .265 .345 .457 .802 39
Why guys like McCracken and Randy Winn have been given more playing time
than Trammell is a mystery to me. He hits for a decent batting average
and has good power (especially versus LHP -- career .537 SPC) but has
never played in more than 82 games in a season for Tampa Bay. Defensively,
he lacks range but has a very good arm. At the trading deadline, the Devil
Rays packaged him with Rick White and sent them to the Mets for Jason
Tyner and Paul Wilson. Trammell was recently traded to the Padres and
should get an opportunity to see significant time in their weak-hitting
outfield.
Randy Winn, lf/cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 69 19 3 1 1 11 6 0 5 0 13 3 2 .275 .324 .391 .716 9
Prorated Tam 175 48 8 3 3 28 15 0 13 0 33 8 5 .275 .324 .391 .716 22
Actual Tam 159 40 5 0 1 28 16 2 26 0 25 6 7 .252 .362 .302 .664 19
There aren't many redeeming aspects of Winn's game, but manager Larry
Rothschild keeps finding ways to work him into the lineup. Perhaps it's
ironic that he played in his fewest games last year but walked at his
best rate, resulting in his highest on-base percentage. Regardless, Winn
has zero power, is not a good outfielder, and has a disappointing career
SB-success rate of 59% despite his good speed. But I'm sure his solid
performance at Triple-A will keep him around for another season.
Jason Tyner, lf/cf, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYN 68 18 2 0 0 10 3 0 6 0 7 5 2 .265 .324 .294 .618 7
Prorated NYN 44 12 1 0 0 6 2 0 4 0 4 3 1 .265 .324 .294 .618 4
Actual NYN 41 8 2 0 0 3 5 1 1 0 4 1 1 .195 .222 .244 .466 2
Prorated Tam 85 23 3 0 0 13 4 0 8 0 9 6 3 .265 .324 .294 .618 9
Actual Tam 83 20 2 0 0 6 8 1 4 0 12 6 1 .241 .281 .265 .546 7
Prorated Tot 129 34 4 0 0 19 6 0 11 0 13 9 4 .265 .324 .294 .618 13
Actual Tot 124 28 4 0 0 9 13 2 5 0 16 7 2 .226 .261 .258 .519 9
The Mets' 1998 first-round draft pick has a reputation for blazing speed,
good defense, and the ability to hit for a high average. It seemed like
the Rays were finally moving away from building around those type of players
-- they replaced McCracken and Winn with Williams and Vaughn -- until
they traded a power-hitting outfielder (Trammell) for Tyner. In the minors,
he has always hit over .300 and has walked at an average rate but hasn't
hit a homerun since high school. In his brief major-league stint, Tyner
didn't hit, was impatient at the plate, and had only four doubles in 50
games. This season, he will try to earn a roster spot as a reserve outfielder
and pinch runner.
Gerald Williams, cf, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 93 26 6 0 4 16 13 1 6 0 15 4 2 .280 .327 .473 .800 14
Prorated Tam 622 174 40 0 27 107 87 7 40 0 100 27 13 .280 .327 .473 .800 93
Actual Tam 632 173 30 2 21 87 89 3 34 0 103 12 12 .274 .312 .427 .739 83
When Tampa Bay acquired Williams from the Braves and signed him to a two-year
deal before the season, they weren't depending on him to be their everyday
CF. But McCracken's knee limited his outfield range, allowing Williams
to become the starter and leadoff hitter. He went on to set career highs
in homeruns, runs, and RBI and was declared team MVP, but that goes more
towards showing just how pathetic the Devil Ray offense was. Williams
performed below expectations in every aspect of his game, walking at the
league's 7th-worst rate, getting caught stealing 50% of the time, hitting
far fewer extra-base hits, and playing average-at-best defense. Among
AL starting center fielders, only Chris Singleton and Carlos Beltran had
a lower OPS.
Jose Guillen, rf/cf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 507 138 27 1 15 72 75 7 32 1 85 2 3 .272 .322 .418 .740 65
Prorated Tam 321 87 17 1 10 46 48 4 20 1 54 1 2 .272 .322 .418 .740 41
Actual Tam 316 80 16 5 10 40 41 13 18 1 65 3 1 .253 .320 .430 .750 44
Guillen has very good range and one of the best arms in the game, but
even though this was his best offensive season, he still had the second-worst
OPS among AL right fielders (Matt Stairs was last). The only reason his
on-base percentage was even that high was because he finished fourth in
the league in getting hit by pitches. Perhaps he was bothered by the shoulder
tendinitis that caused him to miss the first month and a half of the season
or he was rushed to the majors at age 21, but the Devil Rays have grown
impatient and acquired Ben Grieve to play right field in 2001. Because
of that move, Guillen has not been a happy camper this spring.
Steve Cox, rf/lf/1b/dh, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 66 18 4 0 3 11 12 0 8 1 11 0 0 .273 .347 .470 .816 11
Prorated Tam 325 89 20 0 15 54 59 0 39 5 54 0 0 .273 .347 .470 .816 52
Actual Tam 318 90 19 1 11 44 35 4 46 2 47 1 2 .283 .379 .453 .832 55
The 1999 International League Player of the Year finally got a significant
opportunity following three straight years in Triple-A. In 1999, Cox was
also recognized as the International League's top defensive first baseman,
but McGriff had that position occupied so Rothschild played Cox in the
outfield, at first, and as the DH. He put up offensive numbers better
than Guillen and almost identical to McGriff, earning himself a big chunk
of playing time. While he doesn't do anything extremely well, Cox is good
enough to deserve atbats and will be part of the DH/RF/1B mix in 2001.
Dave Martinez, rf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 143 40 6 1 3 21 16 1 16 1 21 3 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 21
Prorated Tam 103 29 4 1 2 15 11 1 11 1 15 2 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 15
Actual Tam 104 27 4 2 1 12 12 0 10 1 17 1 4 .260 .319 .365 .684 12
Prorated ChN 49 14 2 0 1 7 5 0 5 0 7 1 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 7
Actual ChN 54 10 1 1 0 5 1 0 2 0 8 1 0 .185 .214 .241 .455 3
Prorated Tex 118 33 5 1 2 17 13 1 13 1 17 2 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 17
Actual Tex 119 32 4 1 2 14 12 1 14 2 20 2 1 .269 .351 .370 .720 14
Prorated Tor 181 51 8 1 4 27 20 1 20 1 27 4 3 .280 .354 .399 .753 26
Actual Tor 180 56 10 1 2 29 22 1 24 0 28 4 2 .311 .393 .411 .804 31
Prorated Tot 450 126 19 3 9 66 50 3 50 3 66 9 6 .280 .354 .399 .753 66
Actual Tot 457 125 19 5 5 60 47 2 50 3 73 8 7 .274 .346 .370 .716 58
Martinez began the season as the starting right fielder until Guillen's
shoulder felt better in May. He played well defensively but provided little
with his bat and was traded to the Cubs for Mark Guthrie in order to make
room for Guillen. He was traded two more times before season's end with
his best performance coming as a Blue Jay. After the season, he changed
teams again, signing a two-year deal with Atlanta.
Jose Canseco, dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 549 141 24 1 42 92 108 7 67 3 154 17 4 .257 .342 .534 .876 101
Prorated Tam 231 59 10 0 18 39 45 3 28 1 65 7 2 .257 .342 .534 .876 43
Actual Tam 218 56 15 0 9 31 30 4 41 1 65 2 0 .257 .383 .450 .832 40
Prorated NYA 120 31 5 0 9 20 24 2 15 1 34 4 1 .257 .342 .534 .876 22
Actual NYA 111 27 3 0 6 16 19 0 23 1 37 0 0 .243 .365 .432 .797 19
Prorated Tot 351 90 15 1 27 59 69 4 43 2 98 11 3 .257 .342 .534 .876 65
Actual Tot 329 83 18 0 15 47 49 4 64 2 102 2 0 .252 .377 .444 .820 60
As usual, Canseco suffered injuries that limited his playing time --
he has appeared in more than 113 games only once in the last eight years.
When he played for Tampa Bay, he walked frequently but his power output was
disappointing. In a foolish, Steinbrenner-driven move, the Yankees rescued
the Rays from Canseco's contract and claimed him off waivers. As a Yankee,
he was worse and contributed nothing to their World Series run. Overall,
Canseco had his worst slugging percentage of his 16-year career. Following
the season, he changed his workout to focus more on flexibility and less
on weight training and reported to Angels camp about 25 pounds lighter.
Anaheim hopes Canseco can replace the power lost with Mo Vaughn's injury.
Key Pitchers
In 1999, Tampa Bay's staff allowed the AL's second-highest run total and
was 10th in ERA, so LaMar replaced Rolando Arrojo and Bobby Witt with
Juan Guzman and Steve Trachsel. Guzman and Wilson Alvarez were lost for
the year due to injury, forcing manager Larry Rothschild to scramble to
fill out his rotation. He used 13 different starting pitchers, but a solid
bullpen held the staff together and produced better overall results than
expected -- 71 fewer runs than the previous year.
Most of their improvement can be attributed to an emphasis on control.
The staff decreased its league-worst total of 695 walks (in 1999) by 162
in one year, moving them up to 4th best and lopping 25 points off their
opponents' on-base percentage. Because they were around the plate more
often, opponents hit 26 more homeruns, but the damage was minimized by
keeping runners off the bases.
Among the plethora of starting pitchers used, Albie Lopez, Bryan Rekar,
and Paul Wilson emerged as their top options while Esteban Yan proved
he's not cut out for the rotation. In the pen, just about everyone except
closer Roberto Hernandez performed beyond expectations, resulting in the
league's 6th best bullpen ERA even though Tampa Bay had traded away three
key components (Jim Mecir, Rick White, and Mark Guthrie) before season's
end.
Steve Trachsel, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.18 32 32 10 12 0 191 209 33 68 130 .280 .814
Prorated Tam 5.18 23 23 7 9 0 139 152 24 50 95 .280 .814
Actual Tam 4.58 23 23 6 10 0 138 160 16 49 78 .294 .827
Prorated Tor 5.18 11 11 3 4 0 63 69 11 23 43 .280 .814
Actual Tor 5.29 11 11 2 5 0 63 72 10 25 32 .293 .836
Prorated Tot 5.18 34 34 11 13 0 202 222 35 72 138 .280 .814
Actual Tot 4.80 34 34 8 15 0 201 232 26 74 110 .294 .830
Trachsel is a league-average starting pitcher with outstanding durability
-- he logged 200+ innings for the fifth straight year -- which makes him
valuable to a team's rotation. But Tampa Bay signed him to be their #1 guy,
and that was asking too much. Although he looked brilliant at times (beating
Pedro Martinez and El Duque 1-0 in back-to-back May starts), Trachsel
got hit hard and often, and while his homerun rate was lower than expected,
only four AL pitchers allowed more extra-base hits. For the second-straight
season, his winning percentage was below .350 thanks to a lack of run
support from the league's most anemic offense.
At the deadline, the Rays traded Trachsel to Toronto. After the season,
he became a free agent and signed a two-year deal with the Mets worth
$7 million. Trachsel will be expected eat innings at the bottom of their
rotation, and that's a role he's suited for.
Ryan Rupe, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.48 32 32 11 11 0 193 186 26 74 129 .254 .768
Prorated Tam 4.48 16 16 6 6 0 99 95 13 38 66 .254 .768
Actual Tam 6.92 18 18 5 6 0 91 121 19 31 61 .321 .940
The Rays had high expectations for Rupe following his solid rookie performance
in 1999, but almost nothing went right in his sophomore season. He followed
a reasonable first start with five awful outings, an 0-4 record, a 10.95
ERA, and a demotion to Triple-A. At Durham, Rupe left his first start
due to shoulder stiffness, then made five unsuccessful starts (6.52 ERA)
before being recalled in July. Although he seemed to calm down a bit after
the All-Star break (5-2, 5.15), he continued to experience arm problems.
In September, doctors discovered a blood clot in his upper right arm,
and he was shut down for the remainder of the season. Rupe was relieved
to discover the reason behind his poor performance and to learn that he
can expect to be 100% for this year. He has pitched pretty well in his
first three spring training appearances.
Esteban Yan, starter/middle reliever, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.52 32 32 6 11 0 168 191 27 79 139 .288 .832
Prorated Tam 5.52 26 26 5 9 0 135 154 22 64 112 .288 .832
Actual Tam 6.21 43 20 7 8 0 138 158 26 42 111 .285 .854
After two full seasons in the Devil Ray bullpen, Rothschild moved Yan
and his nasty stuff to the rotation, where his career as a full-time starter
got off to a good start with seven innings of shutout ball against Minnesota.
But that was as good as it got. Yan went on to make 19 more starts, allowing
more than seven earned runs per nine innings. He experienced his annual
shoulder pain and returned to full-time bullpen duty shortly after the
break. He was much better as a reliever, lowering his ERA by almost two
runs, cutting his gopher-ball rate in half, and doubling his strikeout-walk
ratio. Yan is currently in a tight race with Tanyon Sturtze for the closer
job left open by Hernandez' departure.
Wilson Alvarez, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.55 29 29 10 10 0 172 168 24 84 132 .258 .769
Alvarez had been experiencing shoulder tightness in his throwing arm
since at least 1997, but this was the first year he had surgery that ended
his season. He pitched through the pain in spring training but was forced
onto the DL at the start of the season. Doctors determined there was too
much wear and tear on Alvarez' rotator cuff and performed arthroscopic
shoulder surgery on May 25th. He is working out this spring and expects
to return in mid-April.
Juan Guzman, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.94 24 24 7 9 0 142 145 24 64 109 .265 .806
Prorated Tam 4.94 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 2 .265 .806
Actual Tam 43.20 1 1 0 1 0 2 7 2 2 3 .636 1.874
Like Alvarez, Guzman has a history of shoulder problems that included
surgery to repair a torn labrum at the end of the 1997 season. Although
he pitched through pain during spring training, Guzman actually made his
first start. He lasted only two awful innings and was placed on the DL.
He hoped to avoid surgery but faced the inevitable in late June when doctors
repaired his frayed rotator cuff and damaged labrum. Guzman is in camp
and hopes to return by the end of April. The Rays have about $15 million
riding on the ability of Alvarez and Guzman to return.
Bryan Rekar, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.03 33 3 3 5 0 78 94 15 28 49 .301 .874
Prorated Tam 6.03 6 11 0 166 201 32 60 105 .301 .874
Actual Tam 4.41 30 27 7 10 0 173 200 22 39 95 .292 .788
Despite missing the season's first month due to a groin injury, Rekar
was one of Tampa Bay's best starters and had his best season to date. Perhaps
the three years he spent pitching in Colorado wore on him mentally, explaining
his disappointing first couple of years with the Devil Rays. In 1999,
he began losing command and continued to watch many balls leave the yard,
but Rekar bounced back last season and pitched with his best control,
had his lowest homer rate, and set career bests in innings pitched, ERA,
and strikeouts.
Albie Lopez, starter/long reliever, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 4.21 53 0 4 4 0 73 77 10 30 50 .274 .775
Prorated Tam 4.21 10 10 0 182 193 25 75 125 .274 .775
Actual Tam 4.13 45 24 11 13 2 185 199 24 70 96 .277 .780
Lopez was having a rough season in the bullpen (2-4, 5.53 ERA) when Rothschild
gave him his first start as a Devil Ray on May 28th. He followed three
decent outings with a hot streak in which he won 8 of his next 12 starts
(2.69), thus securing a spot in the rotation. Lopez' weak finish (0-4,
6.62) brought his overall numbers back to his norms, but he still finished
in the league's top 10 in ERA. Because of his success as a starter (9-9,
3.88) and his health, the Rays are counting on Lopez as their #1 guy in
2001.
Dave Eiland, starter/long reliever, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.13 23 0 2 4 0 47 59 8 14 29 .311 .870
Prorated Tam 6.13 3 5 0 59 74 10 18 36 .311 .870
Actual Tam 7.24 17 10 2 3 0 55 77 8 18 17 .326 .910
As usual, Eiland was bad, but the Rays still allowed him to make ten
starts. Anaheim should be embarrassed for scoring no runs and only getting
three hits in six innings in Eiland's only good start of the year (April
23rd). The junkballer couldn't strike anyone out and surrendered homers
at a high rate, but the only thing that kept Tampa Bay from trotting him out
to the mound even more was a hip injury sustained at the end of May (missed
two months) and a hyperextended knee in September. He is in camp with
Oakland but doesn't have much of a chance to make their talented staff.
Paul Wilson, starter/long reliever, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection NYN 5.19 3 3 1 1 0 17 20 2 7 12 .294 .834
Prorated Tam 5.19 8 8 3 3 0 46 53 5 18 32 .294 .834
Actual Tam 3.35 11 7 1 4 0 51 38 1 16 40 .209 .565
Wilson, the first overall pick in the 1994 draft, was a top prospect
in the Mets organization but missed most of 1996 and 1997 due to shoulder
surgery and all of 1999 to elbow surgery. Last season, he began pitching
regularly in Triple-A, but the Mets apparently gave up and used him to
acquire some outfield (Trammell) and bullpen (White) depth for their stretch
run. Tampa Bay never sent Wilson to the minors, instead working him into his
first four appearances as a long reliever before inserting him into the
rotation. Despite two lousy starts against Oakland, he was even better
than his ERA suggests -- his stats are more consistent with a figure in
the 2.15 range. Wilson closed out the season in style, tossing 14 straight
shutout innings against Toronto and Boston. He is having a solid spring
thus far and hopes to survive the season in the rotation with no major
injuries.
Dwight Gooden, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Hou 4.71 5 5 2 2 0 29 31 4 14 21 .277 .820
Prorated Hou 4.71 1 1 0 0 0 4 5 1 2 3 .277 .820
Actual Hou 9.00 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 1 3 1 .353 1.156
Prorated Tam 4.71 7 7 3 3 0 38 41 5 19 28 .277 .820
Actual Tam 6.63 8 8 2 3 0 37 47 14 20 23 .315 1.045
Prorated NYA 4.71 11 11 4 4 0 60 65 8 30 44 .277 .820
Actual NYA 3.36 18 5 4 2 2 64 66 8 21 31 .266 .752
Prorated Tot 4.71 18 18 7 7 0 103 111 14 50 75 .277 .820
Actual Tot 4.71 27 14 6 5 2 105 119 23 44 55 .287 .875
Houston hoped Gooden was over his shoulder problems of 1999 and could
contribute as their 5th starter, but they released him after just one
poor start. Decimated by injuries, the Devil Rays were desperate for starting
pitching when they brought in Gooden and handed him the ball for eight
starts. Opponents clobbered him for an incredible number of homeruns in
very little time -- his 14 dingers in 37 innings projects to 76 in 200
-- and Gooden averaged less than five innings per start. Tampa Bay released
him at the end of May, and it appeared his career was over. But the Yankees
gave Gooden another life by trying him as a long reliever, and he excelled
(3.32 ERA) in that role. This spring, he is trying to fill New York's
final rotation spot but will otherwise return to long relieving.
Travis Harper, starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tam 4.78 6 5 1 2 0 32 30 5 15 14 .244 .751
Despite being regarded as one of Tampa Bay's top prospects, Harper wasn't
projected to pitch in the majors because he had only thrown 72 unimpressive
innings above Single-A prior to last season. Upon being called up, he
got bombed in his major-league debut in August and didn't see additional
action until a month later. In September, he finished the season with
four solid starts that included a complete-game 2-hit shutout in Toronto
for his first win ever. Harper is currently penciled into the Rays' 2001
rotation but may only be keeping a spot warm until Alvarez or Guzman are
ready to go.
Cory Lidle, long reliever/spot starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.71 19 0 1 1 0 17 20 2 5 11 .294 .788
Prorated Tam 5.71 6 6 0 97 112 11 28 61 .294 .788
Actual Tam 5.03 31 11 4 6 0 97 114 13 29 62 .294 .800
Coming off Tommy John surgery (yet another Devil Ray with arm problems),
Lidle was up and down several times from AAA and the majors as well as
from the rotation to the bullpen. They eased him back into duty by using
him as a long reliever in his first eight appearances before giving him
his first start on May 31st. Lidle's first few starts were solid, but
his next four were awful enough to 'earn' him a demotion to the minors.
He returned in August and was used exclusively as a reliever for the next
month before making four decent starts to end the season. Tampa Bay included
him in the three-team deal centered around Johnny Damon, and Lidle is
currently battling for the fifth rotation spot in Oakland's rotation.
Tanyon Sturtze, long reliever / spot starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChA 5.05 7 7 2 3 0 41 43 5 21 32 .272 .789
Prorated ChA 5.05 3 3 1 1 0 19 20 2 10 15 .272 .789
Actual ChA 12.06 10 1 1 2 0 16 25 4 15 6 .379 1.146
Prorated Tam 5.05 8 8 2 4 0 48 51 6 25 38 .272 .789
Actual Tam 2.56 19 5 4 0 0 53 47 4 14 38 .236 .631
Prorated Tot 5.05 12 12 3 5 0 68 71 8 35 53 .272 .789
Actual Tot 4.74 29 6 5 2 0 68 72 8 29 44 .272 .767
Sturtze is now with his fourth big-league team, having flamed out in
previous trials with the Cubs, Rangers, and White Sox. Before joining
Tampa Bay, Sturtze had allowed 135 runners to reach base in 67-1/3 innings,
surrendered a homerun every five innings, and compiled an 8.55 ERA.
So it was obvious why Tampa Bay was willing to give up a useful utility
infielder (Graffanino) to acquire Sturtze from Chicago last May, wasn't
it? And wasn't it equally obvious that Sturtze would suddenly become one
of the better relievers and spot starters in the AL? And given that Sturtze
had a 2.76 ERA as a starter and a 6.56 ERA as a reliever last year, just
as obvious why Tampa Bay is planning to use Sturtze in the bullpen this
year, possibly even as the closer?
Oddly enough, Sturtze wound up compiling a complete-season record that
was very close to what we had projected for him. That projection was based
mainly on his work in AAA, which was much better than his major-league
record but not extraordinary in any way. He's a hard thrower who doesn't
walk too many guys, but given his history, I don't know whether to regard
his performance last year as a fluke or an indication that he's turned
a big corner in his career.
Dan Wheeler, long reliever/spot starter, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 7.29 4 4 1 2 0 21 27 5 7 16 .314 .915
Prorated Tam 7.29 5 5 1 2 0 24 31 6 8 19 .314 .915
Actual Tam 5.48 11 2 1 1 0 23 29 2 11 17 .302 .892
Although Tampa Bay and some prominent members of the baseball media are
high on Wheeler, he has yet to prove that he can succeed above A ball.
Last year, he put 42 runners on base in 23 innings with the D-Rays and
could do no better than a 5.63 ERA with AAA Durham. And his tendency to
give up homeruns in bunches is still a concern. In that respect, his big-league
performance was an improvement (one HR every 11.5 innings), but he watched
35 balls leave the yard in 150 innings at AAA, continuing a pattern that
saw him yield 30 longballs in 171 innings the previous year. Perhaps there
was a reason why Wheeler was only a 34th-round draft pick back in 1996.
Doug Creek, lefty specialist, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 7.02 9 0 1 1 0 17 20 4 11 16 .299 .937
Prorated Tam 7.02 29 0 3 3 0 55 65 13 36 52 .299 .937
Actual Tam 4.60 45 0 1 3 1 61 49 10 39 73 .224 .758
On the plus side, Creek did a wonderful job against lefties last year,
holding them to a .170 batting average and striking out more than a batter
per inning. But the negatives were just as pronounced -- almost six walks
per nine innings and a .527 slugging average allowed to right-handed batters.
That means his value is limited to being a situational lefty, and his
hold on that job will continue to be tenuous unless he can find home plate
a little more often. Maybe the new strike zone will help him out this
year.
Jim Morris, lefty specialist, age 36
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 6.57 53 0 2 4 0 49 61 11 33 33 .307 .957
Prorated Tam 6.57 11 0 0 1 0 10 12 2 7 7 .307 .957
Actual Tam 4.35 16 0 0 0 0 10 10 1 7 10 .250 .737
Morris provided one of the great human-interest stories in baseball last
year. Selected in the first round of the 1983 draft by the Brewers, Morris
ran into arm problems and never made it out of A ball, pitching only 16
innings in his last four seasons before retiring at age 25. Last year,
while teaching high school and coaching the baseball team there, his players
were impressed with how hard he could still throw. So they made a deal
-- if they qualified for the playoffs, Morris would attempt a comeback.
Sure enough, the players did their part, and Morris made the remarkable
leap from batting practice pitcher to big-league hurler in a few months.
Tampa Bay released him after the season and the Dodgers picked him up,
but Morris decided to re-retire a couple of weeks ago, saying that he
really belonged back in the classroom.
Mark Guthrie, lefty setup, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection ChN 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 76 12 31 55 .271 .813
Prorated ChN 4.60 14 0 1 1 0 19 20 3 8 14 .271 .813
Actual ChN 4.82 19 0 2 3 0 19 17 1 10 17 .258 .698
Prorated Tam 4.60 24 0 1 2 0 33 35 5 14 25 .271 .813
Actual Tam 4.50 34 0 1 1 0 32 33 4 18 26 .262 .743
Prorated Tor 4.60 15 0 1 1 0 20 21 3 9 15 .271 .813
Actual Tor 4.79 23 0 0 2 0 21 20 3 9 20 .263 .740
Prorated Tot 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 75 12 31 54 .271 .813
Actual Tot 4.67 76 0 3 6 0 71 70 8 37 63 .261 .731
Guthrie was one of several players who appeared for three teams last
year, and he gave each of his three managers a solid performance. He became
a free agent after the season and signed a interesting two-year deal with
Oakland that will pay him a lot more if he makes their starting rotation.
Guthrie began his career as a starter with Minnesota but was converted
to relief in his third season there. Since 1992, he has started only two
games, both in 1995, so there's no recent history to go on when assessing
his chances to move back into that role. One encouraging sign is that
Guthrie has been almost equally effective against lefties and righties
over the past five years. Starters with big platoon splits are vulnerable
to opposing managers who can stack the lineup against them, but that shouldn't
be a problem for Guthrie. Nevertheless, my guess is that he will wind
up spending most of his time in the bullpen -- he hasn't been all that
good in relief in recent years, so it's hard to see how his stuff will
hold up as a starter.
Jim Mecir, setup man, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 3.09 70 0 6 3 3 99 86 8 45 85 .236 .683
Prorated Tam 3.09 33 0 3 1 1 47 41 4 21 40 .236 .683
Actual Tam 3.08 38 0 7 2 1 50 35 2 22 33 .201 .540
Prorated Oak 3.09 26 0 2 1 1 36 31 3 16 31 .236 .683
Actual Oak 2.80 25 0 3 1 4 35 35 2 14 37 .255 .677
Prorated Tot 3.09 59 0 5 3 3 83 72 7 38 71 .236 .683
Actual Tot 2.96 63 0 10 3 5 85 70 4 36 70 .225 .600
Mecir can point to the last round of expansion as the turning point in
his career. Originally in the Seattle system, he was traded to the Yankees
after the 1995 season in the deal that sent Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson
east for Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis. He didn't do much in New York
(5.47 ERA in 74 innings over two seasons) before going to Boston as the
player to be named in the 1997 Mike Stanley for Tony Armas deal. Red Sox
GM Dan Duquette apparently had no plans to keep him around. Six weeks
later, he exposed Mecir in the expansion draft and Tampa Bay snapped him
up. Mecir became Tampa Bay's best middle reliever for two-plus seasons
(though much of 1999 was wiped out by injury) before he was once again
traded, this time to Oakland for hard-throwing pitching prospect Jesus
Colome.
Before moving back to the west coast, Mecir was putting together another
fine season, holding enemy hitters to a .201 batting average, allowing
only 2 of 21 inherited runners to score, and racking up 11 holds. With
Oakland, he wasn't quite as good, but he did bring them some badly-needed
bullpen depth for their successful stretch run. Over the past five years,
Mecir (a right-hander) has been more effective against lefties than righties,
so he can be used in all situations rather than being spotted against
certain hitters. That makes him especially valuable.
Rick White, setup man, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.13 23 0 2 3 0 47 56 5 16 31 .298 .806
Prorated Tam 5.13 33 0 3 4 0 67 79 7 23 44 .298 .806
Actual Tam 3.41 44 0 3 6 2 71 57 7 26 47 .220 .649
Prorated NYN 5.13 14 0 1 2 0 29 34 3 10 19 .298 .806
Actual NYN 3.81 22 0 2 3 1 28 26 2 12 20 .232 .663
Prorated Tot 5.13 47 0 4 6 0 96 114 10 32 63 .298 .806
Actual Tot 3.52 66 0 5 9 3 100 83 9 38 67 .224 .653
White was one of the better middle relievers in the AL last year, but
the Rays sent him to the Mets in the deal that brought Paul Wilson. If
Wilson emerges as a decent-or-better starting pitcher, this is a big win
for the Devil Rays even though they'll miss White in the bullpen this
year. Before the trade, White allowed only 3 of 29 inherited runners to
score and was terrific against right-handed batters, holding them to a
.172 average and a .559 OPS. Lefties fared better, but even they were
only at the league average.
Roberto Hernandez, closer, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 3.22 70 0 5 5 33 73 67 5 37 62 .248 .686
Prorated Tam 3.22 70 0 5 5 33 73 67 5 37 62 .248 .686
Actual Tam 3.19 68 0 4 7 32 73 76 9 23 61 .272 .754
Although his ERA was only a hair above his career average, this cannot
be considered a good season by Hernandez' standards because he blew 8
saves in 40 chances and allowed 42% of inherited runners to score (the
league average is 35%). Nevertheless, Hernandez continued to be one of
the Devil Rays better players and cannot be blamed for their poor showing.
After the season, he was a key part of that three-team deal among the
Rays, Athletics and Royals. From KC's perspective, the deal was Johnny
Damon for Hernandez, and even though Hernandez will be an asset in what
has been a terrible Royals bullpen, it's hard to see how an aging closer
provides adequate compensation for a player like Damon.
Outlook
The only major off-season move was the trade that sent Hernandez to KC
and brought Ben Grieve from Oakland. As a result, the biggest differences
between this group and the club that opened the season a year ago are
the result of the moves they made during the 1999 season.
The offense is likely to be a little better this year. Ben Grieve will
be a big help, Steve Cox should play a little more, and they should get
more out of the third base position, either because Castilla bounces back
or Huff takes the job away from him. Super-prospect Josh Hamilton could
be on the scene by season's end. But Tampa Bay didn't do much to improve
a lineup that ranked a distant last in on-base percentage, so the rallies
could be few and far between.
The starting rotation could be much better. Rekar, Lopez and Wilson emerged
as solid starters last year, and it's possible that Alvarez and Guzman
could help out before too long. Though neither has pitched in a game yet
this spring, both are expected to be ready by the end of April. But the
bullpen could be a horror story with the departures of Guthrie, Mecir,
White and Hernandez in the last eight months. It's very hard to see who's
going to fill their shoes in the coming season.
So it looks like another long year for Devil Rays fans. There are some
good prospects in the pipeline, but it could be 2-3 years before this
organization begins to make a big move in the right direction.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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