2000 Post-Season Review -- Texas Rangers
By Gary Gillette and Stuart Shea
March 16, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Texas Rangers performed in the 2000
season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach
used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics, and our
publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 936 848
Runs allowed 841 974
Run Margin +95 -126
Wins 90 71
Pythagorean wins 90 70
Placement 1st 4th
After a humiliating sweep at the hands of the World Champion Yankees
in the AL Division Series in 1999 -- the Rangers managed to score only
one run in three games -- Texas retooled for 2000. The Rangers let their
top starting pitcher, Aaron Sele, leave as a free agent, and traded their
biggest star, Juan Gonzalez, to Detroit rather than sign him to an expensive
long-term contract.
It's no secret that the millennium edition of the Rangers was a complete
bust. Instead of winning the AL Western Division, as many expected, the
Rangers crashed and burned, finishing last in the division, more than
20 games behind Oakland. Texas underperformed its predicted finish by
19 games, the worst by far in the American League, as virtually everything
that could go wrong did. While the Rangers were respectable in Arlington
with a 42-39 mark, their road record was truly atrocious at 29-52.
Key Position Players
Losing Ivan Rodriguez to a freak injury for the second half of the season
was the most devastating blow to the Texas offense. Unfortunately, it
wasn't the only problem with the Rangers' attack. The left side of the
infield was completely unproductive, and the outfield suffered both from
injury and immaturity. Texas finished ninth in the AL in runs -- and even
having Juan Gonzalez in the middle of the order wouldn't have helped,
given his miserable season in Detroit.
Ivan Rodriguez, c, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 562 178 32 2 26 97 93 3 34 3 75 15 4 .317 .357 .520 .876 97
Prorated Tex 363 115 21 1 17 63 60 2 22 2 48 10 3 .317 .357 .520 .876 63
Actual Tex 363 126 27 4 27 66 83 1 19 5 48 5 5 .347 .375 .667 1.042 80
Before suffering a season-ending thumb fracture on July 24, Rodriguez
was enjoying a terrific campaign. Hitting .402 with seven homers in May,
he established a 45-homer pace and hit over .340 against both southpaws
and righties. He has raised his batting average and slugging percentage
in each of the last four years. However, it should be noted that Rodriguez'
year also looks somewhat better than it should because he did not
play in August or September. He tends to decline at bat in the last two
months, although he is still productive down the stretch. Behind the plate,
Rodriguez nailed 14 of the 34 brave souls who tried to steal off him (41%).
Most runners don't even challenge him anymore.
There may be no player in the game now with better all-around skills
than Rodriguez, and precious few players can equal him -- new teammate
A-Rod, Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, and (possibly) Indians second
baseman Roberto Alomar.
Bill Haselman, c, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 104 28 6 0 3 10 12 0 7 1 19 0 0 .269 .313 .413 .726 13
Prorated Tex 195 53 11 0 6 19 23 0 13 2 36 0 0 .269 .313 .413 .726 24
Actual Tex 193 53 18 0 6 23 26 1 15 0 36 0 1 .275 .329 .461 .790 30
Ivan Rodriguez' injury gave Haselman extra playing time in 2000, and
the veteran did a fine job. An agile catcher with good ball-handling skills,
he threw out a quarter of the men who tried to steal against him -- slightly
below par. For what it's worth, Rangers pitchers had a 4.95 ERA with him
behind the dish (it was 5.35 with Rodriguez). He hits well against lefties,
but had only 35 at-bats against them. Haselman has always been a much
better hitter in his home parks than on the road, and last year batted
.340 (.931 OPS) at the Ballpark in Arlington.
B.J. Waszgis, c/1b, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 64 15 3 0 2 10 9 1 8 0 15 1 1 .234 .324 .375 .699 8
Prorated Tex 44 10 2 0 1 7 6 1 5 0 10 1 1 .234 .324 .375 .699 5
Actual Tex 45 10 1 0 0 6 4 1 4 0 10 0 0 .222 .294 .244 .539 4
In his tenth professional season, Waszgis finally reached the majors
in July and spent nine weeks as a backup with the Rangers. He is nothing
special, and he would not have been around if not for Ivan Rodriguez'
injury. Waszgis has signed with the Florida organization for 2001.
Rafael Palmeiro, 1b/dh, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 547 169 29 1 41 94 124 4 77 9 77 4 4 .309 .395 .590 .985 128
Prorated Tex 586 181 31 1 44 101 133 4 82 10 82 4 4 .309 .395 .590 .985 137
Actual Tex 565 163 29 3 39 102 120 3 103 17 77 2 1 .288 .397 .558 .954 128
Despite a better-than-expected performance against lefties (.326 with
ten homers in 144 at-bats), Palmeiro slumped in 2000. At age 36 some slide
can be expected, and even with a downturn he remains a productive hitter
if not an especially good first baseman. Palmeiro has played 158 or more
games each of the last five years. He does not run well, and has lost
his range in the field, but remains a steady hitter who won't get himself
out and knows how to put the ball in the air. His RBI count this season
could be stratospheric with A-Rod ahead of him in the lineup.
Luis Alicea, 2b/3b/ss, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 363 90 18 4 8 66 41 5 59 1 63 7 4 .248 .358 .386 .744 54
Prorated Tex 517 128 26 6 11 94 58 7 84 1 90 10 6 .248 .358 .386 .744 77
Actual Tex 540 159 25 8 6 85 63 5 59 1 75 1 3 .294 .365 .404 .769 81
Alicea enjoyed a surprising comeback in 2000, hitting better than expected
from both sides of the plate and setting career highs in most offensive
categories. He filled a need for the Rangers, who were short a second
baseman after Mark McLemore's departure. However, Alicea is just not a
very good everyday player. His range and hands at second base were a little
below average, he has lost his speed, and he does not have enough power
to make up for his shortcomings. As a fifth infielder, though, Alicea
has value; he gets on base, is durable, and can even play shortstop in
a pinch. The Royals have signed him for 2001.
Frank Catalanotto, 2b/1b/dh, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 308 91 19 2 11 46 44 8 22 2 50 3 4 .295 .353 .477 .830 51
Prorated Tex 292 86 18 2 10 44 42 8 21 2 47 3 4 .295 .353 .477 .830 49
Actual Tex 282 82 13 2 10 55 42 6 33 0 36 6 2 .291 .375 .457 .832 51
If Catalanotto had average range, or if he could avoid defensive mistakes,
he might be a regular. Instead, he's a useful bat off the bench and a
platoon DH, as he does hit right-handers well (.293 with power in 2000).
One more indication that he is best suited for utility duty is that the
more he played, the less productive he was. Catalanotto worked his way
off the bench by batting .568 (21-for-37) in April and May, but faded
badly down the stretch after being granted regular duty.
Tom Evans, 3b/1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 433 113 29 0 11 68 59 8 50 1 89 5 4 .261 .348 .404 .752 61
Prorated Tex 59 15 4 0 1 9 8 1 7 0 12 1 1 .261 .348 .404 .752 8
Actual Tex 54 15 4 0 0 10 5 1 10 0 13 0 3 .278 .394 .352 .746 8
Evans won the Rangers' third base job in spring training, then tore his
right rotator cuff in early May and missed the rest of the season. Despite
his relatively young age, Evans' career is in serious jeopardy of being
consigned to being a Triple-A player and occasional call-up when injuries
strike. He signed a minor-league deal with Detroit in January.
Mike Lamb, 3b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 118 32 9 1 3 18 18 1 9 1 13 1 1 .271 .326 .441 .766 16
Prorated Tex 492 133 38 4 13 75 75 4 38 4 54 4 4 .271 .326 .441 .766 68
Actual Tex 493 137 25 2 6 65 47 4 34 6 60 0 2 .278 .328 .373 .702 59
One of the team's top prospects coming into 2000, Lamb took over for
an injured Tom Evans in May and rode out the season as the club's everyday
third baseman. While Lamb was batting .300 as late as August 6, he slid
after that and did not show the expected power nor contribute sufficient
on-base ability. He also made 33 errors, tied with Troy Glaus for most
in the game at third base, and displayed poor range. Ken Caminiti will
man the hot corner for the Rangers in 2001, assuming he avoids injury
(not likely) and conquers his demons (who knows?). Lamb may return to
Triple-A for this season; he has played just 16 games at that level.
Royce Clayton, ss, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 569 154 31 4 15 87 64 4 53 1 107 17 9 .271 .335 .418 .753 79
Prorated Tex 512 139 28 4 13 78 58 4 48 1 96 15 8 .271 .335 .418 .753 71
Actual Tex 513 124 21 5 14 70 54 3 42 1 92 11 7 .242 .301 .384 .685 55
Clayton's poor performance was one of the great disappointments of the
Rangers' 2000 campaign. Not only did he have his worst season at the plate
since the mid-1990s, he stole fewer bases and showed a lack of interest
in the game. His range at shortstop was merely average. He batted a pathetic
.196 against southpaws last season, nearly 100 points below his norm.
Clayton also batted only .244 with one home run after June 31. Traded
to the White Sox over the winter, Clayton has to show something quickly
that indicates that he isn't finished.
Scott Sheldon, ss/3b/2b/1b, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 67 16 4 0 3 10 11 0 7 0 17 1 0 .239 .307 .433 .740 9
Prorated Tex 123 29 7 0 6 18 20 0 13 0 31 2 0 .239 .307 .433 .740 17
Actual Tex 124 35 11 0 4 21 19 1 10 0 37 0 0 .282 .336 .468 .804 20
Sheldon is a solid utility player who can fill in capably almost anywhere.
He isn't going to continue as a .282 hitter, but doesn't need to in order
to be valuable. He played all nine spots on September 6 against the White
Sox. As a pitcher, he fanned Jeff Liefer on five pitches. He normally
wouldn't be expected to repeat his 2000 performance at age 32, but his
lack of prior ML experience might mean that he can sustain this level
for a few years.
Rusty Greer, lf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 571 174 35 3 21 105 98 4 85 2 79 2 2 .305 .395 .487 .882 112
Prorated Tex 389 119 24 2 14 72 67 3 58 1 54 1 1 .305 .395 .487 .882 76
Actual Tex 394 117 34 3 8 65 65 3 51 1 61 4 1 .297 .377 .459 .837 69
Battling hamstring, ankle, and foot injuries at the beginning and end
of the season, Greer saw his power numbers dip dramatically and his range
in left field sink to a little below average. While he usually hangs in
very well against southpaws, last season Greer hit only .245 against them
with one homer in 98 at-bats. In addition, slugging only .483 against
righties isn't that encouraging. However, Greer was productive when healthy.
From June through August, he batted .318 with six homers and 27 doubles
in 318 at-bats. He should be back to full strength this year, but there
is some concern that Greer's all-out style of play could preclude a long
career. Despite that, Texas signed him to a long-term contract extension
in early March.
Chad Curtis, lf/rf, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 85 23 4 0 3 15 11 1 15 0 14 3 1 .271 .382 .424 .806 15
Prorated Tex 318 86 15 0 11 56 41 4 56 0 52 11 4 .271 .382 .424 .806 56
Actual Tex 335 91 25 1 8 48 48 1 37 0 71 3 3 .272 .343 .424 .767 47
The veteran played more than expected last season because of injuries
to Rusty Greer and Ruben Mateo. Curtis served capably in left field, where
he's played most of his games in recent years, and also in right. While
helpful in the lineup against lefties (.326 last year, somewhat better
than his normal), Curtis doesn't have enough power, speed, or on-base
ability to justify the 335 at-bats as he saw in 2000.
Gabe Kapler, cf/rf, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 538 142 34 7 20 84 84 3 53 2 91 10 6 .264 .329 .465 .794 84
Prorated Tex 437 115 28 6 16 68 68 2 43 2 74 8 5 .264 .329 .465 .794 68
Actual Tex 444 134 32 1 14 59 66 0 42 2 57 8 4 .302 .360 .473 .833 74
Kapler was productive last season, but in a different way than expected:
he hit for better average than projected but with less power. He was again
solid versus lefties and also improved vastly against right-handers (.306,
.836 OPS). After batting just .193 in April, he tore his right quadriceps
on May 2. When he returned, Kapler batted .300 or better in every month,
although his home run pop was streaky. The jury is out as to what type
of hitter he will eventually be, but the Rangers like what they see so
far. Asked to play center field 89 times last year after Ruben Mateo's
injury, Kapler showed average range at a difficult spot and played well
enough to convince management to have him swap positions with Mateo for
2001. Throwing is not Kapler's strength, and his hands aren't as soft
as one might like.
Ruben Mateo, cf, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 578 164 34 1 28 97 104 13 28 5 90 15 5 .284 .329 .491 .820 92
Prorated Tex 206 58 12 0 10 35 37 5 10 2 32 5 2 .284 .329 .491 .820 33
Actual Tex 206 60 11 0 7 32 19 5 10 1 34 6 0 .291 .339 .447 .786 31
Mateo made major strides last season at the plate. While he still swung
at too many bad pitches, he did lift his average by 55 points from his
1999 debut and ironed out his strikeout/walk ratio from a terrible 7-1
to 3.4 to 1. Right-handers didn't give him problems, and Mateo had a .945
OPS versus lefties. Despite his reputation as a five-tool player, his
range in center has been below average -- he makes mistakes, and he can't
outrun all of them -- but has an excellent arm that is suited for right
field.
It does concern the Rangers that a young player is so prone to serious
injury. The broken femur that knocked him out of action from June 2 through
the rest of the season should be healed this spring, and Mateo will get
back on the horse in an attempt to reach his superior potential. He's
got time, given his age, but Texas needs him to mature quickly if they
want to be able to do battle again with teams like the Yankees in the
postseason.
Scarborough Green, cf/rf/lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 68 15 3 0 0 11 4 0 6 0 15 3 2 .221 .284 .265 .548 5
Prorated Tex 126 28 6 0 0 20 7 0 11 0 28 6 4 .221 .284 .265 .548 10
Actual Tex 124 29 1 1 0 21 9 0 10 0 26 10 6 .234 .291 .258 .549 9
Nobody has yet figured out how a batter can steal first base, which is
definitely to Green's detriment. He has terrific speed and can play center
field, but he just can't hit. Five of his 10 stolen bases in 2000 came
in one game (September 28). The Cubs have signed him for 2000.
Ricky Ledee, rf/lf/cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection NYA 397 105 21 4 15 70 57 1 46 4 108 8 4 .264 .339 .451 .790 62
Prorated NYA 195 51 10 2 7 34 28 0 23 2 53 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 31
Actual NYA 191 46 11 1 7 23 31 1 26 2 39 7 3 .241 .332 .419 .751 26
Prorated Cle 63 17 3 1 2 11 9 0 7 1 17 1 1 .264 .339 .451 .790 10
Actual Cle 63 14 2 1 2 13 8 0 8 0 9 0 0 .222 .310 .381 .691 7
Prorated Tex 212 56 11 2 8 37 30 1 25 2 58 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 33
Actual Tex 213 50 6 3 4 23 38 1 25 2 50 6 3 .235 .317 .347 .664 23
Prorated Tot 470 124 25 5 18 83 67 1 54 5 128 9 5 .264 .339 .451 .790 74
Actual Tot 467 110 19 5 13 59 77 2 59 4 98 13 6 .236 .322 .381 .703 56
Forgive Ledee if he couldn't remember what team he played for in 2000.
Traded twice, he wound up with the Rangers in a July 28 deal. He did not
impress any of his employers, however, and must break through this year
to avoid being labeled a failed prospect. Ledee may be pressing in order
to live up to the inflated expectations many scouts and front office types
had of him. While he shows good range in right field, he only has enough
arm strength to play left. He strikes out a lot and has a career average
under .250 against both left- and right-handers, which makes it tough
even to see Ledee as a helpful platoon player.
Dave Martinez, rf/1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 143 40 6 1 3 21 16 1 16 1 21 3 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 21
Prorated Tam 103 29 4 1 2 15 11 1 11 1 15 2 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 15
Actual Tam 104 27 4 2 1 12 12 0 10 1 17 1 4 .260 .319 .365 .684 12
Prorated ChN 49 14 2 0 1 7 5 0 5 0 7 1 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 7
Actual ChN 54 10 1 1 0 5 1 0 2 0 8 1 0 .185 .214 .241 .455 3
Prorated Tex 118 33 5 1 2 17 13 1 13 1 17 2 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 17
Actual Tex 119 32 4 1 2 14 12 1 14 2 20 2 1 .269 .351 .370 .720 14
Prorated Tor 181 51 8 1 4 27 20 1 20 1 27 4 3 .280 .354 .399 .753 26
Actual Tor 180 56 10 1 2 29 22 1 24 0 28 4 2 .311 .393 .411 .804 31
Prorated Tot 450 126 19 3 9 66 50 3 50 3 66 9 6 .280 .354 .399 .753 66
Actual Tot 457 125 19 5 5 60 47 2 50 3 73 8 7 .274 .346 .370 .716 58
The peripatetic Martinez remains a smart and solid three-day-a-week player
who is well-conditioned, competes hard, knows his job, and can fill in
capably at four positions. He has signed with the Braves for the next
two seasons and should excel there if allowed to stay in his role as a
fourth outfielder.
Jason McDonald, rf/lf/cf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 63 15 2 0 1 11 5 1 10 0 14 3 1 .238 .351 .317 .669 8
Prorated Tex 96 23 3 0 2 17 8 2 15 0 21 5 2 .238 .351 .317 .669 12
Actual Tex 94 22 5 0 3 15 13 1 17 0 25 4 4 .234 .357 .383 .740 13
McDonald played extremely well in the outfield last season, but did not
hit much. However, he does know how to get on base via the walk and has
a little pop. He is currently in camp with Milwaukee.
Pedro Valdes, rf/lf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 67 19 4 0 3 11 10 0 7 1 10 0 0 .284 .347 .478 .824 11
Prorated Tex 54 15 3 0 2 9 8 0 6 1 8 0 0 .284 .347 .478 .824 9
Actual Tex 54 15 5 0 1 4 5 0 6 0 7 0 0 .278 .350 .426 .776 9
The former Cubs' farmhand is a quality singles hitter who could eventually
land on a major league bench. However, he will play in Japan this year.
David Segui, dh/1b, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tex 567 162 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 80 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 89
Prorated Tex 350 100 19 2 12 48 46 1 34 4 49 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 55
Actual Tex 351 118 29 1 11 52 57 0 34 1 51 0 1 .336 .391 .519 .909 69
Prorated Cle 221 63 12 1 8 30 29 0 21 2 31 0 0 .286 .347 .457 .803 35
Actual Cle 223 74 13 0 8 41 46 1 19 1 33 0 0 .332 .384 .498 .881 41
Prorated Tot 571 163 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 81 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 90
Actual Tot 574 192 42 1 19 93 103 1 53 2 84 0 1 .334 .388 .510 .898 110
Starting the season with Texas, Segui hit far better than expected. He
then went to Cleveland in a July 28 trade and ripped it up there as well.
A first baseman with excellent hands and average range, Segui hit over
.300 in nearly every situational breakdown and was on fire from opening
day (.391 in April) through year's end (.318 in September). Always better
in day games, he hit a spectacular .429 (1.090 OPS) in the sunshine. In
the last four years, Segui has hit for the four highest slugging averages
of his career, making himself into a decent first baseman after lacking
adequate power for that position in the past.
Ruben Sierra, dh, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Tex 60 14 0 0 1 5 7 0 4 0 9 1 0 .233 .281 .283 .565 5
Sierra made a surprising return to the majors in 2000, but his lack of
production wasn't much of a surprise. His career is probably over. Even
if it isn't and he hangs around a while longer, who cares? Sierra may
be the best poster boy for what too much muscle can do to a talented baseball
player's career.
Key Pitchers
As bad as the Rangers' offense was in 2000, the team's pitching was even
worse. Texas hurlers finished last in the league with a whopping 974 runs
allowed, 44 more than the next-worst club and 133 worse than expected.
To be sure, the team's shaky fielding had something to do with that sorry
performance, as did the hitter-friendly aspects of The Ballpark in Arlington,
but most of the blame lies with the pitchers themselves. The best that
can be said of the 2000 Rangers' staff is that several key veterans (Rick
Helling, Kenny Rogers, John Wetteland) were mediocre, while the rest of
the veterans and all of the younger elements of the mound corps ranged
from bad to awful.
Rick Helling, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.02 32 32 11 11 0 190 197 32 76 133 .267 .807
Prorated Tex 5.02 37 37 13 13 0 220 228 37 88 154 .267 .807
Actual Tex 4.48 35 35 16 13 0 217 212 29 99 146 .252 .779
The Rangers' most consistent starter, Helling excels despite the fact
that none of his five pitches rates above average. He wins by mixing pitches,
changing speeds, and getting ahead in the count. Which is not to say that
his control is perfect: he works around tough hitters to get to lesser
ones, and he throws plenty of pitches. For the second straight year, he
pitched poorly in September, and he has been much more effective so far
in his career on five days' rest. This indicates that stamina could be
an issue in his late-season slide. Helling has pitched 216, 219, and 217
innings in the past three seasons, yet he did not complete a game in 2000.
Kenny Rogers, starter, age 35
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 4.83 32 32 11 11 0 190 211 19 72 115 .285 .781
Prorated Tex 4.83 38 38 13 13 0 228 253 23 86 138 .285 .781
Actual Tex 4.55 34 34 13 13 0 227 257 20 78 127 .285 .779
Rogers gets a lot of heat from the media and some in the game for being
a head case, mostly because of his past inability to adjust to New York.
But last season he did everything the Rangers asked him to do, making
every start and enjoying one of his better campaigns.
Oddly, lefties just blew him up (.886 OPS), indicating that the changeups
and cutters he is throwing to get out righties have taken some of the
sting from the fastball and curve he uses on his fellow portsiders. Rogers
should still have a couple of years remaining as an effective starter;
he's a smart pitcher who knows how to adjust and use what he has effectively.
Darren Oliver, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.33 32 32 12 12 0 199 232 22 81 115 .294 .821
Prorated Tex 5.33 18 18 7 7 0 111 130 12 45 64 .294 .821
Actual Tex 7.42 21 21 2 9 0 108 151 16 42 49 .339 .955
A bad left shoulder disabled Oliver twice in 2000, and his performance
when "healthy" suffered as a result. He didn't win after May 31, going
0-6 with a 9.55 ERA in his last ten starts. Scouts say that Oliver's conditioning
could be better, and that this shortcoming is one reason he has been prone
to injury. He hasn't been a truly effective starter since 1997, and he
faces an uphill battle to convince the Rangers that he can still win.
Oliver is signed through 2002. Ouch.
Esteban Loaiza, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.12 32 32 11 11 0 190 219 25 63 121 .291 .799
Prorated Tex 5.12 18 18 6 6 0 110 126 14 36 70 .291 .799
Actual Tex 5.37 20 17 5 6 1 107 133 21 31 75 .302 .872
Prorated Tor 5.12 15 15 5 5 0 89 103 12 30 57 .291 .799
Actual Tor 3.62 14 14 5 7 0 92 95 8 26 62 .270 .726
Prorated Tot 5.12 34 34 12 12 0 199 229 26 66 127 .291 .799
Actual Tot 4.56 34 31 10 13 1 199 228 29 57 137 .288 .807
There is no questioning Loaiza's stuff, but he has acquired a reputation
in baseball as a none-too-brilliant flinger who pitches either badly enough
to blow good offensive support or just well enough to lose. He was a nightmare
for Texas despite good stuff; in his final eight starts with the Rangers,
he was pounded for a 7.24 ERA. After a July 19 trade, Loaiza went to Toronto
and was far more effective. His last seven starts of the year were quite
good, and he threw strikes. As a fifth starter, Loaiza has a chance to
help. However, until he establishes some consistency, a team can't count
on him for much more. Despite the fact that he's been around for six years,
he's only 29 and still could mature.
Justin Thompson, starter, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 4.34 20 20 8 6 0 120 127 12 45 78 .273 .751
The southpaw's career is in jeopardy, as it has been for years, due to
shoulder troubles that sidelined him for all of 2000.
Mark Clark, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.98 7 7 2 3 0 41 50 7 14 26 .303 .868
Prorated Tex 5.98 8 8 2 4 0 49 60 8 17 31 .303 .868
Actual Tex 7.98 12 8 3 5 0 44 66 10 24 16 .347 1.019
Counted on for 180-plus innings when signed in 1999, Clark instead came
up with a torn elbow ligament and missed most of that season. Last year,
still recovering, he bombed out early and was released in July. He is
unsigned for 2001. Clark could go to Triple-A to work himself back into
pitching form if he wants, but his major-league career may be over.
Ryan Glynn, starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 6.20 4 4 1 2 0 20 25 3 11 13 .305 .889
Prorated Tex 6.20 17 17 4 9 0 87 107 13 47 56 .305 .889
Actual Tex 5.58 16 16 5 7 0 89 107 15 41 33 .293 .846
Glynn has four pitches and good velocity on his fastball but, as his
totals show, he needs refinement. He pitched well against right-handers,
showing good control, but lefties hit at a .333 clip and posted a .977
OPS against him. His breaking pitches aren't yet good enough to be strikeout
pitches, and he can't afford so many mistakes with his control. Glynn
has made 126 professional starts, including a full season's worth (30)
at Triple-A. It's time for him to begin producing.
Matt Perisho, long reliever / spot starter, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 6.47 27 4 2 4 0 57 71 8 33 47 .309 .893
Prorated Tex 6.47 52 8 4 8 0 109 136 15 63 90 .309 .893
Actual Tex 7.37 34 13 2 7 0 105 136 20 67 74 .316 .923
Perisho has the stuff to compete, but he does not have confidence in
his pitches and nibbles far too often. His stats line shows the results.
He was 0-5 with a 9.75 ERA in 17 games (eight starts) following the All-Star
break. This winter, he was traded to Detroit for Brandon Villafuerte.
Perisho has a usable cut fastball and changeup and should stick with the
Tigers at least as a middle reliever.
Doug Davis, long reliever / spot starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 6.75 9 0 1 1 0 17 23 3 8 16 .324 .937
Prorated Tex 6.75 6 6 0 96 128 17 44 89 .324 .937
Actual Tex 5.38 30 13 7 6 0 99 109 14 58 66 .288 .826
While the Rangers may have been hoping for more from Davis, it may be
that his best role is as a middle reliever; he notched a 5.58 ERA in his
13 starts and a 4.88 mark (with better control) as a reliever. Davis has
an above-average changeup and a developing slider, but his poor mechanics
lead to terrible control. He's got to do better against lefty hitters,
too (.314 average, .894 OPS).
Tim Crabtree, long reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 4.09 53 0 3 2 0 55 60 4 20 42 .282 .740
Prorated Tex 4.09 78 0 4 3 0 81 88 6 29 62 .282 .740
Actual Tex 5.15 68 0 2 7 2 80 86 7 31 54 .274 .734
It's amazing that Crabtree gets hit hard at all. His stuff is outstanding,
featuring an excellent fastball that moves and a hard curve that breaks
straight down. Unfortunately, Crabtree suffers from control lapses and,
since everything he throws is hard, he has very little variety or deception.
And when major league hitters are ahead in the count, they can dial up
even for a great heater. Crabtree's ERA last year in home games was 6.97,
and he allowed left-handed batters to hit .323 (a sign that he needs a
cut fastball, slider, or changeup to neutralize them). An expected improvement
in the Rangers' infield defense should help Crabtree, an extreme ground-ball
pitcher who depends on his fielders. He's being given a good shot at becoming
Wetteland's successor as the closer for 2001.
Francisco Cordero, long reliever, age 22
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.08 40 0 3 3 0 51 56 7 34 49 .280 .842
Prorated Tex 5.08 61 0 5 5 0 78 85 11 52 75 .280 .842
Actual Tex 5.35 56 0 1 2 0 77 87 11 48 49 .285 .858
The Rangers love Cordero's arm, though they aren't happy with his poor
command. He has four pitches, including a mid-90s four-seam fastball,
but can't get anything over with consistency. While Cordero does throw
a slider and a cut fastball to get lefties out, those pitches didn't work
last year (.955 OPS). What's just as bad is that righties hit seven homers
off him in only 192 at-bats. Cordero got worse as the season went on and,
as a result, was used increasingly in less important situations. Undeniably
talented, Cordero needs more innings at Triple-A to work on his control
and mechanics.
Darwin Cubillan, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Tor 8.04 7 0 1 0 0 16 20 5 11 14 .317 1.046
Actual Tex 10.70 13 0 0 0 0 18 32 4 14 13 .400 1.137
Actual Tot 9.45 20 0 1 0 0 33 52 9 25 27 .364 1.097
Cubillan throws two fastballs and a slider, all of which are plus pitches
in velocity and movement. Unfortunately, he has such terrible mechanics
that the ball rarely ends up in the strike zone. Cubillan is stuck in
a bad place -- he doesn't have enough pitches to be a starter, but he
can't improve his command unless he gets starter-type innings. He is a
long way from being ready for prime time.
Jonathan Johnson, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 8.10 9 0 1 1 0 17 25 3 7 11 .352 .990
Prorated Tex 8.10 16 0 2 2 0 30 44 5 12 20 .352 .990
Actual Tex 6.21 15 0 1 1 0 29 34 3 19 23 .291 .854
Johnson is a hard thrower who needs to refine his command. The Rangers
feel that he could be a closer eventually, but not without significant
improvement. Last year was his first healthy season since 1996, so Johnson
needs a lot more experience to gain his touch.
Mike Venafro, lefty specialist, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 4.05 53 0 4 3 0 73 76 8 32 45 .272 .763
Prorated Tex 4.05 41 0 3 2 0 57 59 6 25 35 .272 .763
Actual Tex 3.83 77 0 3 1 1 56 64 2 21 32 .295 .753
Venafro, a deceptive sidearmer, is one of the most extreme ground-ball
pitchers in the majors, using a sinking fastball with good movement to
kill plenty of worms. He is a solid situational lefty (.693 OPS against
left-handers in 2000). Unfortunately, with no velocity, flat breaking
balls, and a delivery that right-handers read easily, he can't get them
out to save his soul (.351 BA with walks and extra-base power). Venafro
finished second in the AL in appearances last season and will take the
ball at any time. However, he must be kept in his element. Even though
he didn't allow many home runs last season, Venafro is still dangerous
to his own team if allowed to face a good right-handed hitter.
Jeff Zimmerman, setup man, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 2.12 70 0 6 1 3 81 53 9 25 65 .187 .584
Prorated Tex 2.12 72 0 6 1 3 83 54 9 26 67 .187 .584
Actual Tex 5.30 65 0 4 5 1 70 80 10 34 74 .286 .804
Another huge disappointment to the Rangers was Zimmerman's horrifying
slump; the sinker/slider righty had helped a great deal in 1999. Zimmerman
-- like most of his mound mates in Texas -- suffered last season from
serious lapses in control. Both lefties and righties enjoyed unexpected
success against him. He was more effective during the second half, which
gives some hope that he can make a comeback. Getting back to his surprising
rookie form, however, is very unlikely.
John Wetteland, closer, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 3.38 70 0 5 5 31 75 70 9 24 75 .246 .705
Prorated Tex 3.38 60 0 4 4 26 64 60 8 20 64 .246 .705
Actual Tex 4.20 62 0 6 5 34 60 67 10 24 53 .285 .840
Last year was probably Wetteland's last season in the majors. If so,
he ended his career as a bloodied but unbowed gladiator, seventh on the
all-time list with 330 saves. The veteran took the ball when asked and
saved his share of games despite a distinct decrease in his ability. Wetteland
no longer throws hard, relying on sliders and cut fastballs, and last
year was brutal against lefties (.937 OPS). Very serious back problems
have slowed him, and he now must fight every step of the way to get hitters
out, challenging with his average-minus fastball, changing speeds, and
getting opponents out with his smarts rather than pure stuff.
Outlook
The Rangers will certainly improve from 2000, if only because it is very
unlikely that everything will go wrong again. Yes, A-Rod will clearly
help a lot, adding a truly great player at a position that was a black
hole for the team last year. The addition of Randy Velarde should improve
the situation at the keystone sack, and Ken Caminiti might contribute
at the hot corner.
However, this team is not a shoo-in for the postseason by any means,
despite the veteran talent that owner Tom Hicks spent millions to acquire.
Rafael Palmeiro, age 36, and Andres Galarraga, age 40, are clearly old
enough to begin suffering dramatic decreases in production from injuries
or slumps. All three of the starting outfielders have their issues, veteran
Rusty Greer with injuries and Ruben Mateo and Gabe Kapler with proving
that they can hit with authority for a full season. The top of the rotation
(Rick Helling and Kenny Rogers) is adequate, maybe better, but the rest
of the rotation is shaky at best and the bullpen is full of question marks.
Texas has the offensive talent to win the West in 2001, and that may
even be good enough to take the team to its first World Series berth ever.
However, unless the Rangers enjoy a healthy and productive outfield and
a stable pitching staff, the team will probably end up disappointing many
of its fans. Beating Oakland and Seattle for the Western Division title
isn't going to be enough this time around--nothing less than an AL pennant
and a competitive World Series will satisfy the expectations inflated
by the arrival of Alex Rodriguez.
A-Rod may be a true superstar and a player on the way to the Hall of
Fame, but baseball is a difficult team game whose vagaries can easily
dwarf even the greatest of talents. Many other great players have toiled
for years in vain, as inadequate supporting casts kept them from the bright
lights of October.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
|
