2000 Post-Season Review -- Toronto Blue Jays
By Tom Tippett
March 19, 2001
This article takes a look at how the Toronto Blue Jays performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, definitions of key terms and statistics,
and our publication schedule, please see the overview page called 2000
Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 829 861
Runs allowed 853 908
Run Margin -24 -47
Wins 80 83
Pythagorean wins 79 77
Placement 4th 3rd
I was born and raised in Toronto, so when we published our projected
2000 standings a year ago, I heard from a few friends and family members
who thought we were nuts to peg the Jays for only 80 wins and a fourth-place
finish. After all, their lineup featured proven hitters like Carlos Delgado,
Tony Batista, Raul Mondesi, Shannon Stewart, and Darrin Fletcher. Alex
Gonzalez would be back after missing most of 1999 with an injury. They
had just traded for Brad Fullmer. And lots of smart people were raving
about a quartet of hard-throwing young pitchers -- Chris Carpenter, Roy
Halladay, Kelvim Escobar, and Billy Koch -- who were sure to emerge as
legitimate stars at any moment.
Even though our simulations weren't as optimistic as the fans and many
in the media, I half expected this rosy scenario to play out, too. It
was a good lineup, and young pitchers do suddenly put it all together
sometimes, and I could easily see everything coming up roses for this
team. And midway through the season, it looked as if it might.
With 16 wins in each of May and June, the Blue Jays surged past the Yankees
and Red Sox to take over first place in the division. But their hold on
the top spot was tenuous, to say the least. The offense was doing its
part, averaging 5.6 runs per game and trailing only the White Sox and
Athletics in scoring. But all three of the young starters were getting
hammered on a regular basis, and the Jays were giving up runs even faster
than they were scoring them. At that stage of the season, only the Royals
had allowed more enemy runners to cross the plate.
It's not easy to hold onto first place when you're battling for the cellar
in the team pitching rankings, and Toronto did indeed begin to slide,
going 7-13 in their first twenty games after the break. The pitching stabilized
a little, cutting their runs allowed by half a run per game, but the offense
tailed off even more, falling to a 4.9-runs-per-game pace. The result
was a 35-38 record in the second half.
Although the team won three more games than the 80 we projected, their
run margin was actually a little worse. Not many teams that are outscored
by 47 runs are able to post a winning record, but Toronto picked up six
more wins than their run margin normally produces.
Key Position Players
In 1999, Toronto belted 212 homers and scored 883 runs to finish 5th
in the AL in scoring. Last year, they smacked 32 more homeruns to raise
their total to a league-leading 244 . . . and fell to 861 runs and 8th
in the league in scoring. How did that happen? The team batting average
dropped from .280 to .275 and their walk total from 578 to 526. In fact,
the team was second-last in the league in walks even though they had a
player (Carlos Delgado) who was second in the AL in that category. By
himself, Delgado accounted for 23% of Toronto's bases on balls. And perhaps
because they were sitting back waiting for the next ball to be hit out
of the yard, the team stole 30 fewer bases than the year before.
On the positive side, Delgado was an MVP candidate, while Darrin Fletcher,
Shannon Stewart, and newcomer Brad Fullmer had their best years to date.
Homer Bush, who was awful, was the only regular to have a subpar season.
The only major injuries were to Raul Mondesi and Bush, who each missed
the last two months. The loss of Mondesi was a big deal, but Bush's absence
didn't hurt much. In other words, more things went right than wrong, so
the Jays 8th-place finish in the offensive standings wasn't a case of
bad luck. It's a reflection of the talent they put on the field last year.
Darrin Fletcher, c, age 33
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 461 126 25 1 17 50 74 7 31 3 51 0 0 .273 .325 .443 .768 63
Prorated Tor 407 111 22 1 15 44 65 6 27 3 45 0 0 .273 .325 .443 .768 56
Actual Tor 416 133 19 1 20 43 58 5 20 3 45 1 0 .320 .355 .514 .869 75
Fletcher set career highs in atbats, hits, homers, total bases, batting
average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Not bad for a guy
who missed part of spring training due to arthroscopic knee surgery and
spent three weeks on the disabled list in June with a partially torn tendon
in his throwing shoulder. The only part of his game that wasn't at its
peak was his batting eye. That's not a surprise, as Fletcher has never
drawn more than 34 walks in a season. His defensive skills aren't as good
as his bat, however. Fletcher threw out only 22% of the runners who challenged
his arm, and Jays pitchers gave up half a run more per game than when
Castillo was calling the game.
Alberto Castillo, c, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 115 27 4 0 2 11 13 1 13 1 22 0 0 .235 .315 .322 .637 12
Prorated Tor 182 43 6 0 3 17 21 2 21 2 35 0 0 .235 .315 .322 .637 19
Actual Tor 185 39 7 0 1 14 16 0 21 0 36 0 0 .211 .287 .265 .552 15
Pitchers really seem to like working with Castillo, who is one of the
more energetic and animated catchers I've seen. Unfortunately, his defense
cannot compensate for his weak bat. This was a subpar year for him, but
not by much, and there's little reason to think he'll learn how to hit
at this stage of his career. But Toronto liked Castillo's defense enough
to sign him to a new 2-year contract worth $1.5 million.
Carlos Delgado, 1b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 551 151 38 1 39 102 118 12 80 8 133 1 0 .274 .375 .559 .934 120
Prorated Tor 605 166 42 1 43 112 129 13 88 9 146 1 0 .274 .375 .559 .934 132
Actual Tor 569 196 57 1 41 115 137 15 123 18 104 0 1 .344 .470 .664 1.134 186
Simply put, Delgado did everything that was humanly possible to put this
team on his back and carry them. He started every game, raised his batting
average by 72 points in one year, set six club records (doubles, slugging
percentage, OPS, total bases, RBI, walks), dramatically improved his walk
rate, compiled a 22-game hitting streak, and finished fourth in the MVP
balloting. He might have won that award were it not for the fact that
the three guys who received more votes -- Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas,
and Alex Rodriguez -- were with teams that reached the post-season unexpectedly.
Homer Bush, 2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 650 199 31 5 9 98 72 7 36 0 116 36 10 .306 .347 .411 .757 95
Prorated Tor 298 91 14 2 4 45 33 3 17 0 53 17 5 .306 .347 .411 .757 43
Actual Tor 297 64 8 0 1 38 18 5 18 0 60 9 4 .215 .271 .253 .524 20
The anti-Carlos. As good as Carlos Delgado was last year, that's how
bad Bush was in his second year with Toronto. Bush entered the year with
a .328 career batting average but managed to shave 39 points off that
mark in one four-month stretch. He got things turned around a little in
July (.267 average), but any momentum he was building was quickly dispersed
when a pitch broke his hand on July 31 and ended his season in that instant.
I give him a pretty good shot at bouncing back in 2001, though I'd be
surprised to see him hit .300 again.
Craig Grebeck, 2b/ss, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 65 18 4 0 0 8 6 1 7 0 8 0 0 .277 .356 .338 .695 8
Prorated Tor 234 65 14 0 0 29 22 4 25 0 29 0 0 .277 .356 .338 .695 29
Actual Tor 241 71 19 0 3 38 23 2 25 0 33 0 0 .295 .364 .411 .775 36
For most of his career, my mental image of Grebeck was "great-glove-no-hit
utility player". But that's not accurate, especially these days,
as Grebeck has developed the ability to hit for a good average, work the
count, and bang out enough doubles to get his slugging percentage within
shouting distance of the league average. Age has diminished his defensive
skills a little, so now he's a versatile good-glove-good-hit utility player,
and he'll be trying to fill that role for the Red Sox in 2001.
Mickey Morandini, 2b, age 34
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Phi 490 131 21 3 6 71 43 6 55 2 70 8 4 .267 .347 .359 .706 64
Prorated Phi 299 80 13 2 4 43 26 4 34 1 43 5 2 .267 .347 .359 .706 39
Actual Phi 302 76 13 3 0 31 22 4 29 1 54 5 2 .252 .324 .315 .639 31
Prorated Tor 102 27 4 1 1 15 9 1 11 0 15 2 1 .267 .347 .359 .706 13
Actual Tor 107 29 2 1 0 10 7 0 7 0 23 1 0 .271 .316 .308 .624 11
Prorated Tot 401 107 17 2 5 58 35 5 45 2 57 7 3 .267 .347 .359 .706 52
Actual Tot 409 105 15 4 0 41 29 4 36 1 77 6 2 .257 .322 .313 .635 41
Morandini has never had much power, so his ability to hold a regular
job has depended on his defensive skills and his ability to get on base
and run a little. Until two years ago, he was able to do that, but his
range is now a little below average, his on-base percentage has been under
.325 for two years running, his speed has diminished, and what little
power he once had has mostly disappeared. After Bush was hurt, Toronto
picked him up in a trade for reserve outfielder Rob Ducey, which gives
you an idea of the value those two teams placed on Morandini's services.
He became a free agent after the season, but the best he could do was
sign a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays.
Tony Batista, 3b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 599 161 32 1 35 92 103 6 47 2 106 4 1 .269 .325 .501 .826 96
Prorated Tor 602 162 32 1 35 92 103 6 47 2 106 4 1 .269 .325 .501 .826 96
Actual Tor 620 163 32 2 41 96 114 6 35 1 121 5 4 .263 .307 .519 .827 94
Batista accomplished two significant things last year. First, he demonstrated
that his big 1999 season was definitely not a fluke. And, second, he made
a smooth transition from short to third base to make room for the return
of SS Alex Gonzalez. At his new position, he showed above-average range
(not unusual for former shortstops) and reliable hands. He also led all
AL third basemen in double plays. Sure, he doesn't walk much, but that's
the only blemish on his game, and I think most teams would be willing
to live with that in return for 100-plus RBI and superior defense.
Alex Gonzalez, ss, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 518 132 29 1 13 69 50 7 39 1 100 17 6 .255 .314 .390 .704 63
Prorated Tor 533 136 30 1 13 71 51 7 40 1 103 18 6 .255 .314 .390 .704 65
Actual Tor 527 133 31 2 15 68 69 4 43 0 113 4 4 .252 .313 .404 .717 65
Now entering the prime of his career, Gonzalez has shown very little
growth as a hitter since becoming a regular in 1995 at the tender age
of 22. Except for his injury-shortened 1999 season, when he had only 154
atbats, these are his high water marks in just about every offensive category.
And that's not saying much in this high-scoring era -- Gonzalez finished
in the bottom third among everyday shortstops in the OPS rankings. His
defensive range has been good-to-very-good, and he doesn't make a lot
of errors, but he's no Rey Sanchez, either. Nevertheless, the Blue Jays
committed $20 million over the next four years to solidify his place as
their starting shortstop.
Chris Woodward, ss/3b/2b/1b, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 69 16 4 0 0 8 4 0 6 0 12 1 0 .232 .293 .290 .583 6
Prorated Tor 106 25 6 0 0 12 6 0 9 0 18 2 0 .232 .293 .290 .583 9
Actual Tor 104 19 7 0 3 16 14 0 10 3 28 1 0 .183 .254 .337 .591 9
As you can see from his projected statistics, there wasn't much in Woodward's
minor-league record to suggest that he'd be a good hitter at the big-league
level, and he has yet to do anything with the Jays to prove otherwise.
He played all four infield positions adequately, with third base looking
like his best position, but if he doesn't start hitting he'll have trouble
building a career, even as a utility guy.
Shannon Stewart, lf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 609 181 30 3 14 105 72 11 67 1 85 39 15 .297 .376 .425 .801 102
Prorated Tor 555 165 27 3 13 96 66 10 61 1 78 36 14 .297 .376 .425 .801 93
Actual Tor 583 186 43 5 21 107 69 6 37 1 79 20 5 .319 .363 .518 .882 110
You may have noticed a pattern by now -- homers up, walks down. Stewart
is one of five regulars who apparently decided to swing for the fences
a lot more often. I suppose it's understandable that everyone would want
to join in the fun, but that's part of the reason why the Blue Jays managed
to finish 8th in the AL in scoring despite leading the league in homeruns.
I've seen Stewart described as one of the best leadoff hitters in the
AL. There's no question that he's a very good all-around player -- hitting
for average and power, stealing bases with a high success rate, and playing
a very good left field -- and deserves to have a prominent place in the
lineup, but my idea of a great leadoff hitter is someone with a
.400-plus on-base percentage. Stewart's .363 OBP was in the upper third
of leadoff hitters last year, but if Stewart isn't going to be more patient,
I can think of several others (led by Johnny Damon and Darin Erstad) I'd
rather have at the top of my order.
Marty Cordova, lf/rf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 222 59 12 1 7 30 35 3 23 1 48 3 2 .266 .340 .423 .763 31
Prorated Tor 196 52 11 1 6 27 31 3 20 1 42 3 2 .266 .340 .423 .763 27
Actual Tor 200 49 7 0 4 23 18 3 18 0 35 3 2 .245 .317 .340 .657 21
Cordova began the year in the Red Sox camp but asked for and was granted
his release in late March because it was clear the Sox weren't going to
give him a prominent role (or any role) on the team. Toronto signed him
the next day. He spent the entire season with the Jays but once again
failed to show any of the skills that made him the AL Rookie of the Year
in 1995 and helped him drive in 111 runs the following season. Foot and
shoulder problems triggered the slide, and it's unclear whether he'll
ever be able to get fully healthy and return to his peak level. He's in
camp with Cleveland this spring and is currently hitting over .400 and
slugging over .700, so maybe he's back already.
Jose Cruz, cf, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 500 122 25 5 20 85 69 1 84 5 124 15 4 .244 .352 .434 .786 82
Prorated Tor 578 141 29 6 23 98 80 1 97 6 143 17 5 .244 .352 .434 .786 95
Actual Tor 603 146 32 5 31 91 76 2 71 3 129 15 5 .242 .323 .466 .789 92
Even since he exploded on the scene with Seattle in 1997, we've known
that Cruz can hit homeruns. We've also known that he's prone to strike
out at a high rate, and those strikeouts have held his batting averages
below .255 in all four of his big-league seasons. But there are signs
that the rest of Cruz's game is slowly coming together -- his walk rates
have been improving steadily and the strikeouts were down a little last
year. Defensively, his range isn't quite good enough for center field.
If the corners weren't already occupied by Stewart and Mondesi, he'd probably
be playing there already.
It's not clear whether the Jays believe Cruz is their long-term answer
in center. On the one hand, they recently signed him to a 2-year $5.8
million contract. On the other hand, they've got top prospect Vernon Wells
breathing down his neck and they picked up another CF (Brian Simmons)
in the Wells-Sirotka deal.
Raul Mondesi, rf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 581 160 33 5 29 93 93 4 54 5 115 24 10 .275 .339 .499 .838 100
Prorated Tor 385 106 22 3 19 62 62 3 36 3 76 16 7 .275 .339 .499 .838 66
Actual Tor 388 105 22 2 24 78 67 3 32 0 73 22 6 .271 .329 .523 .852 67
Mondesi was enjoying a very solid season, playing to his established
level in most respects and adding a few extra homers and steals to put
the icing on the cake. But his season was over, to all intents and purposes,
when ligament damage and bone chips were discovered in his right elbow
in late July. He had surgery in August and made it back for the last week
of the season, but appeared in only one more game. Mondesi's range in
right field is above average and he owns one of the best throwing arms
in the business.
Dave Martinez, rf, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tam 143 40 6 1 3 21 16 1 16 1 21 3 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 21
Prorated Tam 103 29 4 1 2 15 11 1 11 1 15 2 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 15
Actual Tam 104 27 4 2 1 12 12 0 10 1 17 1 4 .260 .319 .365 .684 12
Prorated ChN 49 14 2 0 1 7 5 0 5 0 7 1 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 7
Actual ChN 54 10 1 1 0 5 1 0 2 0 8 1 0 .185 .214 .241 .455 3
Prorated Tex 118 33 5 1 2 17 13 1 13 1 17 2 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 17
Actual Tex 119 32 4 1 2 14 12 1 14 2 20 2 1 .269 .351 .370 .720 14
Prorated Tor 181 51 8 1 4 27 20 1 20 1 27 4 3 .280 .354 .399 .753 26
Actual Tor 180 56 10 1 2 29 22 1 24 0 28 4 2 .311 .393 .411 .804 31
Prorated Tot 450 126 19 3 9 66 50 3 50 3 66 9 6 .280 .354 .399 .753 66
Actual Tot 457 125 19 5 5 60 47 2 50 3 73 8 7 .274 .346 .370 .716 58
Martinez was acquired from Texas (for pitcher Peter Munro) shortly after
Mondesi went down. Toronto was his ninth big-league team because he doesn't
have enough power to hold down a starting job for long, but he has enough
other skills -- hitting for average, taking a good number of walks, playing
above average defense in the outfield, stealing a few bases -- to step
in and play for a few weeks when needed. He has quietly put together a
career covering 1799 games and 5558 atbats. In the history of the game,
only about 5% of all position players have earned that many atbats, and
Martinez isn't done yet. Oh, and Martinez isn't done traveling yet, either
-- he's in camp with Atlanta this year.
Brad Fullmer, dh, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Tor 478 132 39 1 17 65 75 4 38 5 57 4 5 .276 .333 .469 .801 70
Prorated Tor 479 132 39 1 17 65 75 4 38 5 57 4 5 .276 .333 .469 .801 70
Actual Tor 482 142 29 1 32 76 104 6 30 3 68 3 1 .295 .340 .558 .898 88
One of last spring's most interesting trades was the three-way swap of
first basemen that saw Lee Stevens (Texas to Montreal), David Segui (Toronto
to Texas), and Fullmer (Montreal to Toronto) change places. The deal made
sense for Montreal because Fullmer is a poor defensive player. And it
made sense for Toronto, which had two guys (Delgado and Segui) who could
play first base and room for only one. So they moved Segui's salary and
made Fullmer the DH.
In 1998, Fullmer's first full season with Montreal, he had 59 extra-base
hits. Last year, he had 62. But whereas 3/4 of them were doubles in 1998,
more than half were homers this time around.
Key Pitchers
The young guns were shooting blanks, it turns out. That's basically the
whole story. A number of analysts picked the Blue Jays to make a big move
last year because they expected Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, and Kelvim
Escobar to break out and give Toronto one of the best and deepest rotations
in the league. But Halladay couldn't get anyone out, Escobar failed to
improve, and Carpenter took two big steps backward before taking a small
step forward in the last month of the season. By that time, it was too
late.
David Wells was terrific at the head of the rotation, taking a 15-2 record
into the All-star break. Frank Castillo bounced back from a series of
mediocre seasons to post a 10-5 record. These two held things together
for four months while the rest of the rotation was falling apart. But
Wells faded down the stretch, Castillo missed a month, and the two veterans
who were acquired in trades, Steve Trachsel and Esteban Loaiza, pitched
reasonably well but not well enough to salvage the season. As a group,
the starters other than Wells and Castillo compiled a very unimpressive
29-46 record.
The bullpen wasn't much help, either. The relief corps, which may have
suffered from overwork, finished fourth-last in the AL in relief ERA.
The only bright spot was closer Billy Koch, who is rapidly becoming one
of the best closers in the league.
Overall, the pitching staff finished 11th in the league in runs allowed,
down two spots from the year before.
David Wells, starter, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.44 32 32 12 12 0 213 223 31 55 152 .271 .765
Prorated Tor 4.44 35 35 13 13 0 231 242 34 60 165 .271 .765
Actual Tor 4.11 35 35 20 8 0 230 266 23 31 166 .289 .745
Exceptional control, avoidance of the homerun ball, and good offensive
support (6.2 runs per game) propelled Wells to his first 20-win season,
capping off a stretch of four consecutive 16-wins-or-better campaigns.
He's a battler and a winner, but he's also getting a little long in the
tooth, and his 5-6 record and 4.97 ERA in the second half prompted the
Jays to begin shopping Wells to other clubs, figuring that his trade value
would never be higher.
One rumored possibility was a deal that would send Wells to the Mets
for a packaged that featured Glendon Rusch, but Toronto felt they could
get more. And they did, or so it seemed, when they completed a deal to
send Wells to the White Sox for Mike Sirotka and two minor-leaguers. Soon
after Sirotka passed his physical and joined the Blue Jays, however, it
was learned that he might miss the entire season with shoulder problems.
All of a sudden, the Jays had given up a 20-game winner for a group of
players that might help them in the future but may contribute very little
in 2001.
Chris Carpenter, starter/long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.93 32 32 12 12 0 205 229 24 74 148 .285 .795
Prorated Tor 4.93 28 28 11 11 0 182 203 21 66 131 .285 .795
Actual Tor 6.26 34 27 10 12 0 175 204 30 83 113 .290 .865
In 1997 and 1998, Carpenter had put together two solid seasons and was
often talked about as one of the rising stars who could break out at any
time. There were two dark clouds hovering overhead -- the fact that he
gave up 177 hits in 150 innings in 1999 and the September, 1999, surgery
to remove bone chips from his elbow. Even so, Peter Gammons reported that
Carpenter was considered a Cy Young candidate by a group of managers,
scouts and pitching coaches that he had polled last spring.
As you can see from his projected stats, we weren't ready to assume that
he was going to make a great leap forward, but based on everything I had
heard, it wouldn't have surprised me if Carpenter became a big-time ace.
So the complete meltdown of Carpenter's game caught me and many others
by surprise.
His struggles reached their peak in July (11.75 ERA), so the Jays yanked
him from the rotation for a while. That break seemed to do the trick --
as a reliever, he rediscovered the strike zone, walking only 2 and striking
out 18 in 18-2/3 innings -- and he pitched well after rejoining the rotation
in September. My guess is that he'll bounce back this year, though I suspect
we won't be hearing any of that Cy Young talk for a while.
Roy Halladay, starter/long reliever, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.89 32 32 11 11 0 188 198 25 90 106 .273 .792
Prorated Tor 4.89 13 13 5 5 0 79 83 10 38 44 .273 .792
Actual Tor 10.64 19 13 4 7 0 68 107 14 42 44 .357 1.022
Here's what I wrote in this space a year ago:
"Halladay reached AAA about the time he turned 20 and pitched
well at that level from the beginning. A year and a half later, he took
a no-hitter into the 9th inning of his second major-league outing. It's
not hard to see why he's regarded as one of the top pitching prospects
in the game.
Having said that, you are hereby warned that Halladay's 3.92 ERA last
year is a tad misleading. He put 235 runners on base by hit or walk
in 149 innings, gave up homers at a pretty good clip, and barely struck
out more men than he walked. Normally those stats add up to an ERA in
the low 5's, so he could improve quite a bit in 2000 and still post
an ERA higher than his 1999 figure."
As you can see, Halladay was atrocious last year. He couldn't find the
strike zone (5.6 walks per nine innings) and gave up hits in bunches,
including a homer every five innings. In short, he wasn't fooling anybody,
either as a starter or in relief, and that performance earned him two
month-long trips to the minors. His control was better in AAA (2.6 BB/9),
but his overall results were still poor (2-3, 5.50 ERA in 11 starts),
so it doesn't seem as if Halladay or any of the Toronto coaches have figured
out what caused this promising career to get off track.
Kelvim Escobar, starter/long reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.60 32 32 11 11 0 188 197 19 84 151 .271 .766
Prorated Tor 4.60 31 31 10 10 0 179 188 18 80 144 .271 .766
Actual Tor 5.35 43 24 10 15 2 180 186 26 85 142 .267 .796
And so we come to the third member of the triad that (along with David
Wells) was supposed to take Toronto to the promised land in 2000. And
the third young pitcher who went backward instead of forward last year.
He looks like he should be successful, but hasn't shown the consistency
needed to be a successful starter. He had better results out of the bullpen,
and had a nice run as Toronto's closer in his rookie season of 1997, so
the Jays are planning to use him in a setup role in 2001.
Joey Hamilton, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 5.64 18 18 5 6 0 96 112 11 43 55 .296 .838
Prorated Tor 5.64 6 6 2 2 0 30 35 3 13 17 .296 .838
Actual Tor 3.55 6 6 2 1 0 33 28 3 12 15 .233 .694
Hamilton made a big splash at the beginning of his career, going 15-15
with a 3.05 in his first season and a half with the Padres. But over the
next three years, control problems began to reduce his effectiveness and
caused his ERA to rise by more than a run. His first season in Toronto
(1999) was a disaster that ended with shoulder surgery, and last year
Hamilton didn't make it back until August. His return was encouraging
but it was also cut two weeks short when his shoulder started bothering
him again. Because it's been five years since his last really good season,
and because his 1999-2000 seasons were effectively wiped out by injuries,
it's awfully hard to tell what he has left at this point.
Frank Castillo, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 6.42 9 9 2 4 0 48 60 7 18 30 .311 .880
Prorated Tor 6.42 24 24 5 11 0 127 160 19 48 80 .311 .880
Actual Tor 3.59 25 24 10 5 0 138 112 18 56 104 .220 .683
With the youngsters on the staff getting rocked night after night, the
task of holding the staff together fell to Wells and Castillo. Castillo's
talent is real -- he had two very good seasons with the Cubs in 1992 and
1995 -- but has been overshadowed by inconsistency and injury problems.
The injury bug got him again last year, as elbow and forearm problems
put him on the disabled list for a month starting in mid-August. He became
a free agent after the season and signed with the Red Sox.
Esteban Loaiza, starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tex 5.12 32 32 11 11 0 190 219 25 63 121 .291 .799
Prorated Tex 5.12 18 18 6 6 0 110 126 14 36 70 .291 .799
Actual Tex 5.37 20 17 5 6 1 107 133 21 31 75 .302 .872
Prorated Tor 5.12 15 15 5 5 0 89 103 12 30 57 .291 .799
Actual Tor 3.62 14 14 5 7 0 92 95 8 26 62 .270 .726
Prorated Tot 5.12 34 34 12 12 0 199 229 26 66 127 .291 .799
Actual Tot 4.56 34 31 10 13 1 199 228 29 57 137 .288 .807
With the starting rotation in shambles, Toronto tried to hold things
together by trading for a couple of veteran starters with middling talent.
The acquisition of Loaiza (for Darwin Cubillan) proved to be a very good
move -- his record was only 5-7 with the Jays, but he gave them 9 quality
starts in 14 outings. Overall, his results were right in line with his
track record. In other words, he was a league-average pitcher. For logging
those 199 average innings, Loaiza was rewarded with a two-year, $9.8 million
contract.
Steve Trachsel, starter, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tam 5.18 32 32 10 12 0 191 209 33 68 130 .280 .814
Prorated Tam 5.18 23 23 7 9 0 139 152 24 50 95 .280 .814
Actual Tam 4.58 23 23 6 10 0 138 160 16 49 78 .294 .827
Prorated Tor 5.18 11 11 3 4 0 63 69 11 23 43 .280 .814
Actual Tor 5.29 11 11 2 5 0 63 72 10 25 32 .293 .836
Prorated Tot 5.18 34 34 11 13 0 202 222 35 72 138 .280 .814
Actual Tot 4.80 34 34 8 15 0 201 232 26 74 110 .294 .830
Trachsel was another veteran pitcher who was brought in to shore up the
rotation. Trachsel gave them exactly what they had a right to expect,
which wasn't all that much but was still an improvement over what the
kids had done earlier in the year. With Trachsel having left as a free
agent after the season (he signed with the Mets), Toronto didn't get much
out of the trade. The deal was Trachsel and Mark Guthrie (also gone via
free agency) for second base prospect Brent Abernathy, so the Jays have
nothing to show for the loss of a prospect who is ranked by Baseball America
as the #6 prospect in the Tampa Bay system.
Lance Painter, long reliever / spot starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.63 53 0 4 4 0 72 75 8 32 61 .271 .774
Prorated Tor 4.63 48 0 4 4 0 65 67 7 29 55 .271 .774
Actual Tor 4.73 42 2 2 0 0 67 69 9 22 53 .271 .771
Painter's overall results were almost a carbon copy of his effort with
St. Louis the year before. Nothing spectacular, but very solid, highlighted
by good control. Although he throws left-handed, Painter was more effective
against right-handed batters last year, and that's unusual for him. Like
most lefties, he's been much better against LHB over the years.
John Frascatore, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.28 53 0 4 3 0 74 77 10 25 40 .270 .774
Prorated Tor 4.28 56 0 4 3 0 78 81 11 26 42 .270 .774
Actual Tor 5.42 60 0 2 4 0 73 87 14 33 30 .301 .873
In his first full season with Toronto, Frascatore had a terrible first
half, entering the break with a 7.14 ERA after allowing 9 homers in 40-1/3
innings. He rallied to have a good second half in which his ERA was 3.31
and his walk-strikeout ratio was improved, though still not all that impressive.
He has struggled so far this spring.
Pedro Borbon, lefty specialist, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 4.22 70 0 4 3 1 70 68 8 40 42 .255 .774
Prorated Tor 4.22 47 0 3 2 1 48 46 5 27 28 .255 .774
Actual Tor 6.48 59 0 1 1 1 42 45 5 38 29 .280 .846
Horrendous control undermined Borbon's role as a lefty specialist. Left-handed
batters continued to struggle against him (.209 average), but Borbon made
their lives a lot easier by walking about one out of every five lefties
he faced. He walked righties at an even higher rate, and they made him
pay for the few strikes he did throw with a .360 average and a .560 slugging
percentage. So far this spring, Borbon has issued only one base on balls
in 6-2/3 innings, so there's a chance he'll return to form.
Paul Quantrill, setup man, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 3.96 70 0 6 4 2 98 109 8 29 63 .287 .751
Prorated Tor 3.96 61 0 5 3 2 85 95 7 25 55 .287 .751
Actual Tor 4.52 68 0 2 5 1 84 100 7 25 47 .298 .787
This is the fourth straight season in which Quantrill has posted an ERA
that is lower than you'd expect from a pitcher with his stats, suggesting
that he's either been quite luck (most likely) or that he has a unique
ability to scatter those hits and escape without much damage. He's a solid
innings-eater who will probably never be a closer or even a top setup
man, but he'd be welcome in almost any bullpen in the majors.
Billy Koch, closer, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Tor 3.82 70 0 4 6 28 73 70 8 33 64 .255 .743
Prorated Tor 3.82 72 0 4 6 29 76 72 8 34 66 .255 .743
Actual Tor 2.63 68 0 9 3 33 79 78 6 18 60 .258 .685
The flame-throwing Koch is emerging as one of the top young closers in
the game. He converted 33 of 38 save opportunities last year for a very
respectable 87% success rate. The Jays haven't had this much confidence
in a bullpen ace since the days of Tom Henke and Duane Ward. Koch could
go on to become the best closer in team history if he stays healthy and
if the club is able to sign him for the long term.
Outlook
This team has a strong lineup that can put runs on the board, especially
if new manager Buck Martinez can convince some of the young hitters to
be more selective at the plate. Quite a few players had career years last
year, so there's a risk that some of them will come back to earth just
a bit, but they can expect to get more offense out of the second base
position and they have some young guys who might continue to improve at
the plate.
The pitching is the wild card, of course. They no longer have their staff
ace, David Wells, and they may not have the guy they traded for either,
as Mike Sirotka continues to battle shoulder problems that might require
surgery. Frank Castillo, Steve Trachsel, and Mark Guthrie left via free
agency. Kelvim Escobar has been moved back to the bullpen. And Roy Halladay
has shown no signs of getting straightened out. So the rotation could
be a real mess. And, remember, this is a team that finished 11th in relief
ERA, and while they've brought in guys like Steve Parris, Hector Carrasco,
Jason Dickson, Scott Eyre, and Dan Plesac, none of them is certain to
be any better than what they had last year. If this staff is going to
be any good, guys like Carpenter and Escobar need to step up in a big
way, or else this team will be involved in a lot of high-scoring games
again this year.
In short, it's hard to be too optimistic about a team that was outscored
by 47 runs a year ago, lost its most reliable starting pitcher, and didn't
add any real talent during the off-season. I think Toronto fans are in
for another middle-of-the-pack finish this year.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond
Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights
reserved.
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