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| Baseball Articles | 2001 Team Reviews |
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2001 Team Reviews -- Format
Last updated: February 17, 2002 Our team reviews present detailed comparisions of three types. Each review begins with a capsule summary of the team's performance relative to our projections. The second section presents projected versus actual statistics for that team's position players. The third and final section does the same for the pitchers on the team. This page shows you how each section is formatted and explains the statistics presented in the tables. Capsule Summary In this section, we present a table comparing our team projections for runs scored, runs allowed, run margin, wins, pythagorean wins, and place in the standings with the actual results of the season: Projected Actual Runs for 719 665 Runs allowed 843 812 Run margin -124 -147 Wins 70 65 Pythagorean wins 68 65 Placement 5th 5th All of the projected figures are based on the average of 50 simulated seasons. Pythagorean wins is a concept developed by Bill James that connects runs to wins using the following formula: Runs^^2
Wins = 162 * -----------------------------
Runs^^2 + (Runs allowed)^^2
The notation ^^ means to the power of, so this formula computes the expected winning percentage by dividing the square of runs scored by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed, then multiplies that percentage by 162 to get the projected win total. Historically, this formula has proven to be an excellent predictor of win-loss records for teams. If a team's actual number of wins total is higher than the pythagorean system predicts, it generally means the team was unusually lucky and/or unusually good in close games. Conversely, a lower win total generally means the team was unlucky and/or lost a lot of close games. In most cases, pythagorean wins are a better indicator of the team's true talent level and prospects for the future. Position Player EntriesHere's how a player entry looks for a non-pitcher. It starts with the player's name, position(s), batting hand, and age as of July 1, and is followed by a comparison of projected and actual performance: Troy Glaus, 3b, bats right, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projected Ana 547 144 33 1 38 103 94 3 91 3 150 11 5 .263 .370 .536 .906 111 Prorated Ana 602 159 36 1 42 113 104 3 100 3 165 12 6 122 Actual Ana 588 147 38 2 41 100 108 6 107 7 158 10 3 .250 .367 .531 .898 119 The top line is the projection we made in the spring. The second line is the projection adjusted to the actual number of plate appearances he had during the seaons. The third line shows his actual stats. You can compare the first two lines to see how much more or less he played than we anticipated. And you can compare the second and third rows to see how his performance compared with our expectations. If a player appeared with more than one team during the season, the Prorated and Actual lines are repeated for each team and another pair of lines with the the player's multi-team totals is added at the end.
The players are sorted by their primary position and, within position, plate appearances. This makes it easy to identify the players who had the greatest impact at each position during the past season. Pitcher EntriesHere's what a pitcher entry looks like. It starts with the player's name, position, throwing hand, and age as of July 1, and like the position player entries, is followed by a comparison of projected and actual performance: Scott Schoeneweis, starter, throws left, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projected Ana 4.93 32 32 10 13 0 205 228 27 80 106 .286 .809 Prorated Ana 33 33 10 13 0 208 232 27 81 108 Actual Ana 5.08 32 32 10 11 0 205 227 21 77 104 .281 .765 The playing time adjustment for pitchers is based on batters faced. Some pitchers were projected as relievers (many games, few innings) but were used as starting pitchers (few games, many innings) instead. If we simply prorate their projected games pitched based on batters faced, we'd end up with an unrealistically large number of games, possibly in excess of 100. That's not meaningful, so in these cases, we leave the G and GS entries blank in the Prorated line. It's not unusual for a starting pitcher to exceed our projected playing time figures if he stays healthy all year. We project starters for 32 starts to allow for the injuries and fatigue that affect many of them each year. For that reason, we almost never project anyone to win more than 18 games. If a pitcher stays healthy, pitches well, and gets decent run support from his offense, he'll often win more games than we project. The pitchers are sorted by their primary role (starter, reliever, closer) and, within role, batters faced. This makes it easy to identify the players who had the greatest impact in each role during the past season. Players without projectionsBefore the seaons starts, we do our best to identify and project statistics for all of the players who are expected to make an impact in the big leagues. To do this, we analyze player stats for AA ball and above, review several publications that track top minor-league prospects, and keep up on the news from each big-league team. In recent years, we've projected the statistics for over 1500 players, or a little over 50 players per team. But there are always some surprises. A team with a rash of injuries at a position may have to go deeper into the minors than we anticipated. Every year, some players move rapidly through the system, jumping from A ball to AA, AAA and finally getting a September call-up to the majors. Sometimes a former player will come out of retirement or finally get over an injury that has kept them out of the game for several years. For these players, we present only their actual statistics. Abbreviations used in the player tablesTm Team Copyright © 2002. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. |
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