2002 Team Reviews -- Format
Last updated: February 4, 2003
Our team reviews present detailed comparisions of three types. Each review
begins with a capsule summary of the team's performance relative to our
projections. The second section presents projected versus actual statistics
for that team's position players. The third and final section does the
same for the pitchers on the team.
This page shows you how each section is formatted and explains the statistics
presented in the tables.
Capsule Summary
In this section, we present two tables. The first table compares our
team projections for runs scored, runs allowed, run margin, wins, pythagorean
wins, and place in the standings with the actual results of the season:
Projected Actual
Runs for 719 665
Runs allowed 843 812
Run margin -124 -147
Wins 70 65
Pythagorean wins 68 65
Placement 5th 5th
All of the projected figures are based on the average of 50 simulated
seasons.
Pythagorean wins is a concept developed by Bill James that connects
runs to wins using the following formula:
Runs^^2
Wins = 162 * -----------------------------
Runs^^2 + (Runs allowed)^^2
The notation ^^ means to the power of, so this formula computes the expected
winning percentage by dividing the square of runs scored by the sum of
the squares of runs scored and runs allowed, then multiplies that percentage
by 162 to get the projected win total.
Historically, this formula has proven to be an excellent predictor of
win-loss records for teams. If a team's actual number of wins total is
higher than the pythagorean system predicts, it generally means the team
was unusually lucky and/or unusually good in close games. Conversely,
a lower win total generally means the team was unlucky and/or lost a lot
of close games. In most cases, pythagorean wins are a better indicator
of the team's true talent level and prospects for the future.
The second table shows how efficiently this team converted its hits and
walks into runs on offense and how well it kept the opposing team from
scoring given the hits and walks allowed by the pitching staff:
Offense Defense
Run efficiency average .292 .243
Difference +.022 -.027
Run efficiency average is a new statistic that we developed in 2002 and
described in an article called Team Efficiency.
We measure the production of a team's offense by adding total bases and
walks (TBW). This figure is normally a very good predictor of how many
runs that team will score, but every year some teams are able to squeeze
an unusually high number of runs out of their offensive events, while
other teams squander more than their share of opportunities.
Run efficiency average (REA) is the result of dividing runs scored by
TBW, and it has the virtue of looking a lot like a team batting average,
making it easy to interpret. The league average is normally in the .255
to .270 range, the top teams tend to be in the .290s, and the worst teams
are down in the .220s or .230s.
We can use the same method to evaluate team defense -- figure the total
bases and walks allowed by the pitching staff and divide that number into
the number of runs allowed.
The best way to evaluate REA is to compare the team to the league average
for that season. As is the case with team batting averages, higher is
better on offense and lower is better on defense.
The example above, which shows the figures for the 2002 Anaheim Angels,
is an extreme case. It's quite rare for a team to post REA values so much
better than the league, and downright amazing that a team would do it
on both sides of the ball in the same season.
Our research has shown that teams with extreme REA performances tend
to revert toward the league average the following season, so this statistic
provides a good indicator of future performance. If a team was successful
because it was highly efficient, it has a hard time matching that level
of success the next season.
Position Player Entries
Here's how a player entry looks for a non-pitcher. It starts with the
player's name, position(s), batting hand, and age as of July 1, and is
followed by a comparison of projected and actual performance:
Darin Erstad, cf/1b, bats left, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Ana 591 165 31 3 13 88 64 6 53 6 97 20 8 .279 .342 .408 .750 85
Prorated Ana 597 167 31 3 13 89 65 6 54 6 98 20 8 86
Actual Ana 625 177 28 4 10 99 73 2 27 4 67 23 3 .283 .313 .389 .702 78
The top line is the projection we made in the spring. The second line
is the projection adjusted to the actual number of plate appearances he
had during the seaons. The third line shows his actual stats. You can
compare the first two lines to see how much more or less he played than
we anticipated. And you can compare the second and third rows to see how
his performance compared with our expectations.
If a player appeared with more than one team during the season, the Prorated
and Actual lines are repeated for each team and another pair of lines
with the the player's multi-team totals is added at the end.
Note: OPS, which is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage,
is regarded by many analysts as one of the better measures of overall
offensive production. RC is runs created, another highly-regarded statistic
(developed by Bill James) to measure overall offensive contributions.
The players are sorted by their primary position and, within position,
plate appearances. This makes it easy to identify the players who had
the greatest impact at each position during the past season.
Pitcher Entries
Here's what a pitcher entry looks like. It starts with the player's name,
position, throwing hand, and age as of July 1, and like the position player
entries, is followed by a comparison of projected and actual performance:
Kevin Appier, starter, throws right, age 34
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Ana 4.58 32 32 10 12 0 193 196 23 68 136 .265 .765
Prorated Ana 31 31 10 11 0 184 187 22 65 130
Actual Ana 3.92 32 32 14 12 0 188 191 23 64 132 .267 .748
The playing time adjustment for pitchers is based on batters faced.
Some pitchers were projected as relievers (many games, few innings) but
were used as starting pitchers (few games, many innings) instead. If we
simply prorate their projected games pitched based on batters faced, we'd
end up with an unrealistically large number of games, possibly in excess
of 100. That's not meaningful, so in these cases, we leave the G and GS
entries blank in the Prorated line.
It's not unusual for a starting pitcher to exceed our projected playing
time figures if he stays healthy all year. We project starters for 32
starts to allow for the injuries and fatigue that affect many of them
each year. For that reason, we almost never project anyone to win more
than 18 games. If a pitcher stays healthy, pitches well, and gets decent
run support from his offense, he'll often win more games than we project.
The pitchers are sorted by their primary role (starter, reliever, closer)
and, within role, batters faced. This makes it easy to identify the players
who had the greatest impact in each role during the past season.
Players without projections
Before the seaons starts, we do our best to identify and project statistics
for all of the players who are expected to make an impact in the big leagues.
To do this, we analyze player stats for AA ball and above, review several
publications that track top minor-league prospects, and keep up on the
news from each big-league team. In recent years, we've projected the statistics
for over 1500 players, or a little over 50 players per team.
But there are always some surprises. A team with a rash of injuries at
a position may have to go deeper into the minors than we anticipated.
Every year, some players move rapidly through the system, jumping from
A ball to AA, AAA and finally getting a September call-up to the majors.
Sometimes a former player will come out of retirement or finally get over
an injury that has kept them out of the game for several years.
For these players, we present only their actual statistics.
Abbreviations used in the player tables
Tm Team
AB Atbats
H Hits
2B Doubles
3B Triples
HR Homeruns
R Runs scored
RBI Runs batted in
HP Hit by pitch
W Walks
IW Intentional walks
K Strikeouts
SB Stolen bases
CS Caught stealing
AVG Batting average
OBP On-base percentage
SPC Slugging percentage
OPS On-base plus slugging
RC Runs created
ERA Earned run average
G Games pitched
GS Games started
W Wins
L Losses
S Saves
INN Innings pitched
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