2002 Season Review -- Cincinnati Reds
February 5, 2003
This article takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds performed relative
to pre-season expectations. For links to the reviews for the other teams,
more information on our projection system, the projections for 2002, definitions
of key terms and statistics, and how efficiently each team performed in
2002, visit the following pages:
2002 Team Reviews
Diamond Mind projection system
Projecting the 2002 Season (March
21, 2002)
Key terms and statistics
Team efficiency
Capsule Summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 785 709
Runs allowed 796 774
Run Margin -11 -65
Wins 80 78
Pythagorean wins 80 74
Placement 4th 3rd
Offense Defense
Run efficiency average .252 .264
Difference -.005 +.008
Position Players
Jason LaRue, c , bats right, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 479 111 27 2 18 58 58 12 31 4 124 3 3 .232 .294 .409 .703 55
Prorated Cin 362 84 20 2 14 44 44 9 23 3 94 2 2 42
Actual Cin 353 88 17 1 12 42 52 13 27 6 117 1 2 .249 .324 .405 .729 44
Corky Miller, c , bats right, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 64 16 4 0 3 10 12 5 5 0 12 1 0 .250 .347 .453 .800 11
Prorated Cin 110 28 7 0 5 17 21 9 9 0 21 2 0 19
Actual Cin 114 29 10 0 3 9 15 4 9 2 20 0 0 .254 .328 .421 .749 14
Kelly Stinnett, c , bats right, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 88 20 4 0 4 10 11 2 7 1 26 0 0 .227 .299 .409 .708 11
Prorated Cin 98 22 4 0 4 11 12 2 8 1 29 0 0 11
Actual Cin 93 21 5 0 3 10 13 0 15 1 25 2 0 .226 .333 .376 .710 13
Sean Casey, 1b, bats left, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 565 174 41 0 18 78 93 9 49 8 77 2 1 .308 .370 .476 .846 98
Prorated Cin 429 132 31 0 14 59 71 7 37 6 58 2 1 74
Actual Cin 425 111 25 0 6 56 42 5 43 6 47 2 1 .261 .334 .362 .696 52
Todd Walker, 2b, bats left, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 623 171 36 2 14 91 74 1 59 1 94 6 7 .274 .335 .406 .741 83
Prorated Cin 608 167 35 2 14 89 72 1 58 1 92 6 7 82
Actual Cin 612 183 42 3 11 79 64 3 50 7 81 8 5 .299 .353 .431 .785 94
Wilton Guerrero, 2b/ss, bats switch, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 103 30 4 1 1 11 9 0 4 0 14 4 1 .291 .318 .379 .696 12
Prorated Cin 84 24 3 1 1 9 7 0 3 0 11 3 1 10
Actual Cin 78 19 1 1 0 9 4 0 6 0 13 2 1 .244 .298 .282 .580 7
Prorated Mon 63 18 2 1 1 7 6 0 2 0 9 2 1 7
Actual Mon 62 12 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 19 5 0 .194 .206 .210 .416 3
Prorated Tot 147 43 6 1 1 16 13 0 6 0 20 6 1 17
Actual Tot 140 31 2 1 0 12 5 0 7 1 32 7 1 .221 .259 .250 .509 10
Aaron Boone, 3b/ss, bats right, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 570 160 36 2 20 74 85 13 39 2 102 10 4 .281 .337 .456 .793 88
Prorated Cin 616 173 39 2 22 80 92 14 42 2 110 11 4 96
Actual Cin 606 146 38 2 26 83 87 10 56 4 111 32 8 .241 .314 .439 .753 87
Barry Larkin, ss, bats right, age 38
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 572 159 37 3 11 99 58 4 77 3 67 17 8 .278 .367 .411 .778 89
Prorated Cin 494 137 32 3 10 86 50 3 67 3 58 15 7 78
Actual Cin 507 124 37 2 7 72 47 3 44 9 57 13 4 .245 .305 .367 .672 57
Juan Castro, ss/2b, bats right, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 108 25 5 0 2 11 8 0 7 1 20 0 0 .231 .276 .333 .609 9
Prorated Cin 83 19 4 0 2 8 6 0 5 1 15 0 0 7
Actual Cin 82 18 3 0 2 5 11 0 7 0 18 0 0 .220 .278 .329 .607 8
Gookie Dawkins, ss, bats right, age 23
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 70 15 3 0 2 10 6 0 4 0 14 2 1 .214 .257 .343 .600 6
Prorated Cin 51 11 2 0 1 7 4 0 3 0 10 1 1 4
Actual Cin 48 6 2 0 0 2 0 0 6 0 21 2 1 .125 .222 .167 .389 2
Adam Dunn, lf/1b/rf, bats left, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 492 144 35 1 44 109 104 10 81 6 134 11 4 .293 .402 .636 1.039 131
Prorated Cin 569 166 40 1 51 126 120 12 94 7 155 13 5 152
Actual Cin 535 133 28 2 26 84 71 9 128 13 170 19 9 .249 .400 .454 .854 107
Russell Branyan, lf/1b/3b, bats left, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cle 482 107 21 3 34 74 88 6 54 2 202 2 2 .222 .305 .490 .795 75
Prorated Cle 159 35 7 1 11 24 29 2 18 1 66 1 1 24
Actual Cle 161 33 4 0 8 16 17 0 17 0 65 1 2 .205 .278 .379 .657 17
Prorated Cin 225 50 10 1 16 34 41 3 25 1 94 1 1 35
Actual Cin 217 53 9 1 16 34 39 2 34 3 86 3 1 .244 .349 .516 .865 42
Prorated Tot 383 85 17 2 27 59 70 5 43 2 161 2 2 59
Actual Tot 378 86 13 1 24 50 56 2 51 3 151 4 3 .228 .320 .458 .777 57
Brady Clark, lf/rf, bats right, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 87 22 4 0 3 14 11 1 10 0 11 2 1 .253 .333 .402 .736 12
Prorated Cin 64 16 3 0 2 10 8 1 7 0 8 1 1 8
Actual Cin 66 10 3 0 0 6 9 1 6 2 9 1 2 .152 .233 .197 .430 3
Prorated NYN 11 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Actual NYN 12 5 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .417 .462 .500 .962 3
Prorated Tot 76 19 3 0 3 12 10 1 9 0 10 2 1 10
Actual Tot 78 15 4 0 0 9 10 1 7 2 11 1 2 .192 .267 .244 .511 5
Brandon Larson, lf/3b, bats right, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 71 16 4 0 3 10 9 1 3 0 20 0 0 .225 .267 .408 .675 7
Prorated Cin 55 12 3 0 2 8 7 1 2 0 15 0 0 5
Actual Cin 51 14 2 0 4 8 13 1 6 1 10 1 0 .275 .362 .549 .911 10
Wily Mo Pena, lf, bats right, age 20
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Actual Cin 18 4 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 11 0 0 .222 .222 .389 .611 2
Juan Encarnacion, cf/rf, bats right, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 528 138 27 6 22 71 71 8 26 1 112 16 7 .261 .304 .460 .764 71
Prorated Cin 327 86 17 4 14 44 44 5 16 1 69 10 4 45
Actual Cin 321 89 11 2 16 43 51 1 26 0 63 9 4 .277 .330 .474 .804 49
Prorated Flo 268 70 14 3 11 36 36 4 13 1 57 8 4 36
Actual Flo 263 69 11 3 8 34 34 3 20 0 50 12 5 .262 .317 .418 .735 33
Prorated Tot 596 156 30 7 25 80 80 9 29 1 126 18 8 80
Actual Tot 584 158 22 5 24 77 85 4 46 0 113 21 9 .271 .324 .449 .773 82
Reggie Taylor, cf/lf/rf, bats left, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 72 18 3 1 2 9 7 0 2 0 15 4 2 .250 .267 .403 .669 7
Prorated Cin 299 75 12 4 8 37 29 0 8 0 62 17 8 30
Actual Cin 287 73 15 4 9 41 38 2 14 3 79 11 8 .254 .291 .429 .719 33
Ken Griffey Jr., cf, bats left, age 32
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 571 151 25 2 44 93 106 8 79 14 117 8 2 .264 .358 .546 .905 115
Prorated Cin 199 53 9 1 15 32 37 3 28 5 41 3 1 41
Actual Cin 197 52 8 0 8 17 23 3 28 6 39 1 2 .264 .358 .426 .784 30
Raul Gonzalez, cf, bats right, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 68 18 4 0 2 10 8 0 6 0 9 1 1 .265 .320 .412 .732 9
Prorated Cin 23 6 1 0 1 3 3 0 2 0 3 0 0 3
Actual Cin 23 6 1 0 0 4 1 0 2 0 5 2 0 .261 .320 .304 .624 2
Prorated NYN 78 21 5 0 2 11 9 0 7 0 10 1 1 10
Actual NYN 81 21 2 0 3 9 11 0 4 0 17 2 2 .259 .291 .395 .686 8
Prorated Tot 101 27 6 0 3 15 12 0 9 0 13 1 1 13
Actual Tot 104 27 3 0 3 13 12 0 6 0 22 4 2 .260 .297 .375 .672 11
Austin Kearns, rf/lf/cf, bats right, age 22
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 68 18 4 0 3 10 11 1 6 0 13 1 1 .265 .333 .456 .789 10
Prorated Cin 394 104 23 0 17 58 64 6 35 0 75 6 6 59
Actual Cin 372 117 24 3 13 66 56 6 54 3 81 6 3 .315 .407 .500 .907 77
Jose Guillen, rf, bats right, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Ari 70 20 4 1 3 10 11 2 3 0 14 0 0 .286 .333 .500 .833 11
Prorated Ari 132 38 8 2 6 19 21 4 6 0 26 0 0 22
Actual Ari 131 30 4 0 4 13 15 2 7 1 25 3 4 .229 .277 .351 .628 10
Prorated Cin 110 31 6 2 5 16 17 3 5 0 22 0 0 18
Actual Cin 109 27 3 0 4 12 16 1 7 0 18 1 1 .248 .299 .385 .684 11
Prorated Tot 242 69 14 3 10 35 38 7 10 0 48 0 0 38
Actual Tot 240 57 7 0 8 25 31 3 14 1 43 4 5 .237 .287 .367 .653 21
Ruben Mateo, rf, bats right, age 24
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projected Cin 69 17 4 0 2 10 8 2 3 0 13 1 0 .246 .293 .391 .685 8
Prorated Cin 86 21 5 0 3 13 10 3 4 0 16 1 0 10
Actual Cin 86 22 6 0 2 11 7 2 6 0 20 0 0 .256 .319 .395 .714 11
Pitchers
Jimmy Haynes, starter, throws right, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.89 32 32 10 12 0 188 209 22 75 115 .284 .791
Prorated Cin 33 33 10 12 0 192 214 23 77 118
Actual Cin 4.12 34 34 15 10 0 197 210 21 81 126 .278 .764
Elmer Dessens, starter, throws right, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.32 32 32 11 11 0 196 214 26 49 121 .280 .754
Prorated Cin 28 28 10 10 0 174 190 23 43 107
Actual Cin 3.03 30 30 7 8 0 178 173 24 49 93 .257 .730
Chris Reitsma, starter/reliever, throws right, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.86 27 27 8 10 0 163 183 21 39 87 .284 .791
Prorated Cin 23 23 7 9 0 139 156 18 33 74
Actual Cin 3.64 32 21 6 12 0 138 144 17 45 84 .267 .762
Ryan Dempster, starter, throws right, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Flo 4.39 32 32 12 12 0 205 197 22 94 175 .254 .748
Prorated Flo 19 19 7 7 0 119 115 13 55 102
Actual Flo 4.79 18 18 5 8 0 120 126 12 55 87 .281 .818
Prorated Cin 14 14 5 5 0 90 87 10 41 77
Actual Cin 6.19 15 15 5 5 0 89 102 16 38 66 .293 .862
Prorated Tot 33 33 12 12 0 209 201 22 96 179
Actual Tot 5.38 33 33 10 13 0 209 228 28 93 153 .286 .837
Jared Fernandez, starter/reliever, throws right, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 6.11 13 0 1 1 0 18 20 3 6 9 .290 .829
Prorated Cin 39 0 3 3 0 52 59 9 18 27
Actual Cin 4.44 14 8 1 3 0 51 59 5 24 36 .294 .822
Brian Moehler, starter, throws right, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Det 4.40 15 15 5 7 0 106 122 10 20 58 .290 .759
Prorated Det 3 3 1 1 0 18 21 2 3 10
Actual Det 2.29 3 3 1 1 0 20 17 3 2 13 .233 .634
Prorated Cin 7 7 2 3 0 47 54 4 9 26
Actual Cin 6.02 10 9 2 4 0 43 61 8 11 18 .330 .942
Prorated Tot 9 9 3 4 0 66 75 6 12 36
Actual Tot 4.86 13 12 3 5 0 63 78 11 13 31 .302 .855
Shawn Estes, starter, throws left, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected NYN 3.99 32 32 11 11 0 192 186 15 90 145 .258 .723
Prorated NYN 22 22 8 8 0 134 130 10 63 101
Actual NYN 4.55 23 23 4 9 0 133 133 12 66 92 .267 .760
Prorated Cin 5 5 2 2 0 31 30 2 14 23
Actual Cin 7.71 6 6 1 3 0 28 38 1 17 17 .345 .944
Prorated Tot 27 27 9 9 0 164 159 13 77 124
Actual Tot 5.10 29 29 5 12 0 161 171 13 83 109 .281 .794
Jose Acevedo, starter, throws right, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 5.00 32 32 9 11 0 176 187 30 62 137 .273 .801
Prorated Cin 5 5 1 2 0 26 27 4 9 20
Actual Cin 7.23 6 5 4 2 0 24 28 8 12 14 .292 .986
Joey Hamilton, reliever/starter, throws right, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 6.04 16 16 4 7 0 92 118 14 28 60 .313 .872
Prorated Cin 21 21 5 9 0 123 157 19 37 80
Actual Cin 5.27 39 17 4 10 1 125 136 11 50 85 .279 .771
Scott Sullivan, reliever, throws right, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 3.43 40 0 4 2 0 63 52 6 17 51 .224 .654
Prorated Cin 55 0 5 3 0 87 71 8 23 70
Actual Cin 6.06 71 0 6 5 1 79 93 15 31 78 .294 .854
Jose Rijo, reliever/starter, throws right, age 37
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 5.89 13 0 1 1 0 18 22 3 8 12 .297 .842
Prorated Cin 52 0 4 4 0 73 88 12 32 48
Actual Cin 5.14 31 9 5 4 0 77 89 13 20 38 .283 .794
Scott Williamson, reliever, throws right, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 3.86 34 4 3 2 0 47 39 4 24 57 .228 .689
Prorated Cin 51 6 4 3 0 69 58 6 36 85
Actual Cin 2.92 63 0 3 4 8 74 46 5 36 84 .181 .569
Gabe White, reliever, throws left, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 3.36 70 0 5 3 1 78 66 13 17 66 .229 .690
Prorated Cin 49 0 3 2 1 54 46 9 12 46
Actual Cin 2.98 62 0 6 1 0 54 49 3 10 41 .239 .652
John Riedling, reliever, throws right, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 3.08 70 0 5 3 2 76 59 6 32 66 .216 .653
Prorated Cin 45 0 3 2 1 49 38 4 21 43
Actual Cin 2.70 33 0 2 4 0 47 39 2 26 30 .234 .657
Bruce Chen, reliever/starter, throws left, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected NYN 4.27 44 4 4 4 0 65 60 11 22 58 .243 .745
Prorated NYN 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Actual NYN 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 .333 .667
Prorated Cin 28 3 3 3 0 42 39 7 14 37
Actual Cin 4.31 39 1 0 2 0 40 37 7 20 37 .243 .790
Prorated Mon 29 3 3 3 0 42 39 7 14 38
Actual Mon 6.99 15 5 2 3 0 37 47 9 23 43 .303 .926
Prorated Tot 57 5 5 5 0 85 78 14 29 76
Actual Tot 5.56 55 6 2 5 0 78 85 16 43 80 .274 .857
Jim Brower, reliever, throws right, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.66 27 4 3 4 0 68 68 10 26 46 .264 .778
Prorated Cin 15 2 2 2 0 37 37 5 14 25
Actual Cin 3.89 22 0 2 0 0 39 38 2 10 24 .260 .676
Prorated Mon 17 3 2 3 0 43 43 6 17 29
Actual Mon 4.83 30 0 1 2 0 41 39 5 22 33 .245 .748
Prorated Tot 32 5 4 5 0 80 80 12 31 54
Actual Tot 4.37 52 0 3 2 0 80 77 7 32 57 .252 .714
Luis Pineda, reliever/starter, throws right, age 27
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.58 17 0 1 1 0 18 17 3 8 17 .254 .792
Prorated Cin 32 0 2 2 0 33 32 6 15 32
Actual Cin 4.18 26 2 1 3 0 32 25 4 24 31 .221 .760
Jose Silva, reliever, throws right, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 4.67 19 0 1 1 0 17 20 2 5 12 .294 .773
Prorated Cin 25 0 1 1 0 23 27 3 7 16
Actual Cin 4.24 12 0 1 0 0 23 25 3 10 6 .294 .843
Carlos Almanzar, reliever/starter, throws right, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Col 7.31 19 0 1 1 0 16 24 4 4 13 .348 .995
Prorated Cin 11 0 1 1 0 9 14 2 2 8
Actual Cin 2.31 8 1 0 1 0 12 6 0 5 7 .158 .429
Luke Hudson, reliever, throws right, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 6.48 19 0 1 1 0 17 19 4 7 12 .288 .890
Prorated Cin 7 0 0 0 0 6 7 1 3 4
Actual Cin 4.50 3 0 0 0 0 6 5 1 6 7 .227 .756
Danny Graves, closer/starter, throws right, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projected Cin 3.43 70 0 4 6 29 76 73 7 19 48 .254 .703
Prorated Cin 92 0 5 8 38 99 95 9 25 63
Actual Cin 3.19 68 4 7 3 32 99 99 7 25 58 .264 .676
Projections: Copyright ©. Diamond Mind, Inc. All
rights reserved.
Actual 2002 statistics: Copyright ©. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved.
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