Thoughts from Diamond Mind

Welcome to the Diamond Mind weblog. For a while, we've been looking for the best way to publish small pieces of baseball commentary and research, items that may not warrant a full article (such as the ones we've been writing for ESPN.com since 1998) or items that would be outdated by the time our next email newsletter is due to be issued. A weblog seems perfectly suited to this purpose, and we hope you enjoy what you read here.

To provide feedback, email us at blog@diamond-mind.com. We won't be able to reply to those messages individually, but we'll read them all, and we may respond by posting a reply in the weblog itself.


Blog Archives

Weblog Home

This page is powered by Blogger.

 		Thursday, June 24, 2004

The Lowe-down
 
The boxscore of Wednesday's game between the Twins and Red Sox tells us that Derek Lowe allowed four earned runs in seven innings of work, took the loss, and finished the night with a 5.24 ERA and a 6-6 record.

I had the good fortune to spend a gorgeous summer evening in Fenway Park last night, and I can tell you that there's so much more to the story.

To begin the game, Lowe quickly fell behind Cristian Guzman, who then lined a 3-1 pitch into shallow center for a leadoff single.

The number two hitter, Doug Mientkiewicz, followed with a ground ball between first and second. It wasn't hit very hard, and when it left the bat, I thought Pokey Reese would gobble it up. But Reese's dive came up few inches short and the Twins had runners on first and second with nobody out.

When Lew Ford dropped a perfect bunt down the third base line, the bases were loaded. I didn't notice where Bellhorn was positioned on the play, but judging by the time it took him to reach the ball, it seemed as if the bunt caught him completely off guard.

Cleanup hitter Corey Koskie went after the first pitch and hit a bouncer to Reese. Although it wasn't hit all that hard, it looked like a potential double play ball. But Nomar's relay throw was just a hair late, leaving the Twins with runners on first and third with one out and a one-run lead.

Torii Hunter followed with another grounder to second. And once again, the Sox were unable to turn two. Hunter has good speed, and the ball was too soft to be considered a tailor-made double play ball, but an excellent pivot would have gotten them out of the inning. When Hunter beat it out, Minnesota had a 2-0 lead.

Jacque Jones struck out to end things, and Lowe headed for the dugout having conceded two earned runs on a line drive single, a single on a soft grounder that found a hole, a bunt single, and two ground balls that could have produced DPs with first-rate defense.

The next two innings were vintage Lowe. Ground out, ground out, ground single, ground out, ground out, strikeout, ground out. The last batter in the third inning finished a stretch in which Lowe started nine of ten hitters with a first-pitch strike.

The fourth was a 1-2-3 inning on a ground out and two strikeouts. Joe Mauer led off the fifth with a ground single, but he was retired on a force play. Two more strikeouts were sandwiched around a walk and a stolen base and the Twins failed to score.

When Koskie stepped to the plate in the sixth, none of the previous twenty hitters had managed to hit the ball in the air.

Koskie ended that streak when he lined a 1-2 pitch to center. It was a very tough play, but it was a play I've Johnny Damon make a couple of dozen times. This time, however, the ball glanced off Damon's glove as he tried to make the diving catch, and Koskie ended up on second with a double.

Torii Hunter took Lowe's first pitch and deposited it into the Monster seats in deep left center field. Just like that, it was a four-run game.

To his credit, Lowe gathered himself and finished out the sixth and seventh innings with a ground out, a strikeout, and four more ground outs.

The final tally: 29 batters faced, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts, 3 balls hit in the air (all for hits), and 18 ground balls.

According to the standard definition, Lowe doesn't get credit for a quality start. But this was exactly what the Sox hope to see from Lowe the rest of the season.

posted by Tom at 10:05 PM

Wednesday, June 23, 2004

Something's Brewing
 
Let's spend a few minutes looking at the most surprising team in the NL Central.

It's not the division-leading Cardinals. Although most pre-season predictions put them a distant third behind the Cubs and Astros, the Redbirds won an average of 92 games in our preseason simulations, good enough for us to pick them to finish atop the Central. So they may be a surprise to some people, but not to us.

And I'm not talking about the Cincinnati Reds. Yes, they did lead the division for a while, and yes, they're currently in third place with a 38-32 record, and yes, they have a great player who just joined the 500-homer club. But they're doing it with smoke and mirrors. Cincinnati has been outscored by 27 runs, and their opponents have outproduced them by 80 TBW (total bases and walks). With only four wins in their last fourteen games, the Reds are settling back to a record more consistent with their underlying stats.

The most surprising team in the division is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is eight wins ahead of where we projected them to be and they have the stats to back it up: a run margin of +14 and a TBW differential of +41 (through Sunday) that puts them ahead of the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Giants, and Padres.

(Oddly enough, the oft-maligned NL Central holds three of the five teams that are ahead of the Brewers in TBW differential.)

The Milwaukee story is mainly one of run prevention, though good health has been a factor, too.

The offense as a whole is 12 runs ahead of our projections. Lyle Overbay has created 12 more runs than we expected, so everybody else is a wash. Bill Hall and Ben Grieve have exceeded expectations in a limited amout of playing time, but their contributions have been offset by the lack of power from Wes Helms (before he landed on the DL) and Geoff Jenkins. Even Scott Podsednik, who has garnered a lot of attention because he's 30 for 32 in steals and has had some high-profile hits, is right on target with our runs created and OPS projections.

The starting rotation has featured first-rate performances from Ben Sheets (6-4, 2.59, 95 strikeouts in 94 innings) and Doug Davis (7-5, 3.28) along with a bunch of question marks. Wes Obermueller has managed to post a 3-2 record despite a 6.67 ERA. Matt Kinney was horrible in six starts (9.72 ERA) before being moved to the bullpen, where he has been quite effective (2.49 ERA with 4 walks and 21 strikeouts in 22 innings). Chris Capuano has been fortunate enough to keep his ERA under three despite giving up a homer every four innings. And Victor Santos has a win-loss record (5-3) and an ERA (3.95) that are a little better than he's pitched (83 baserunners in 57 innings). Overall, thanks to Sheets and Davis, the Brewers are 6th in the NL in starter ERA.

The bullpen is also sixth in the league in ERA. But unlike the rotation, where a couple of guys are carrying the others, this is more of a team effort.

Closer Danny Kolb didn't have a lot of success with the Rangers through the 2002 season but he's been lights out in Milwaukee. It would be tempting to say it started last year, when he notched 21 saves and posted an ERA slightly under two. But in his last year in Texas, Kolb's OPS allowed was an impressive .647, so an astute observer could have looked past his 4.22 ERA to see some potential for better things.

An extreme ground ball pitcher, Kolb rarely gives up the long ball (only 7 homers allowed in 148 career innings, none this year). That's good, because his 2004 season hasn't fit the typical closer profile. With only eight strikeouts in 28 innings, he's not exactly blowing enemy hitters away. Instead, he's counting on his control (only four walks) and his defense to get the job done.

Dave Burba, Brooks Kieschnick, Mike Adams, Luis Vizcaino and Jeff Bennett have combined for an ERA of 2.85 in 161 innings of relief. And they've been absolutely brilliant recently. Other than Kieschnick's .333, the highest batting average allowed in the month of June is Bennett's .205 mark. Four Milwaukee relievers (including Kolb) have held opposing hitters to an OPS under .430 this month.

Good health is usually an element of these success stories, and it's no different in this case. The only three players to hit the Milwaukee disabled list -- Helms, Capuano, and Ben Ford -- were underperforming anyway.

Two very good starters, a deep bullpen, good health, and just enough offense to get by. And some very good defense from shortstop Craig Counsell, an underappreciated player who has always ranked near the top in our defensive measures. That's been the story of the Milwaukee run to this point.

posted by Tom at 12:25 PM